From the Storm Prediction Center:

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0358 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...

...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6...

On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much

of the nation. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from

the southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Much

of this corridor is forecast to become moderately unstable by

afternoon. The greatest potential for severe storms will likely be

in the southern and central Plains, where some solutions have a

subtle shortwave trough. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse

rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe

wind gusts.

Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen across the

central U.S. on Monday. In response moisture advection will continue

in the Great Plains. By Monday afternoon, moderate instability

should be in place from north Texas northward into the upper

Mississippi Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected

to develop across this airmass Monday afternoon and evening.

Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates will again be

favorable for severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind

gusts. A tornado threat may also develop.

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into

the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects

northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable

airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern

Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and

southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the

southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will

be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes

are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be

possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases

on the timing of the ejecting trough.

...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...

The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the

central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward

through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Moderate instability is

forecast to develop ahead of much of the front. Thunderstorms that

form in areas that destabilize sufficiently could have a severe

threat. The severe potential will likely continue into Thursday, as

the front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

However, model spread concerning the position of the front and

timing of the trough increases substantially toward mid week,

suggesting a lot of uncertainty exists at this extended range in the

period.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026