Trump has no intention in giving them all those

demands (and yes they have the upper hand).

He is just buying time to figure out how to open the strait, he also just learned these guys aren’t flinching when threatened with total destruction.

Both sides (gulf states/US) vs Iran) know complete destruction of either sides’ oil or water production is a red line neither can pass because at that point, literal millions would die. (That’s why karg island is still operational and why Iran still has electricity, and why Iran hasn’t hit oil sites as hard as they could, just enough to show they can, or desalination plants)

Because either side doing so would basically be dropping a metaphorical nuke, and mutual assured destruction (directly to the gulf states and indirectly to the US/west.) The destruction will be a global famine winter as millions will die from the lack of oil and fertilizer.

So Trump says “I’ll think about it, let’s talk” to figure out if there is a way to crush their Hormuz chokehold. If he can figure it out, it’s basically over except the damage already caused , which will be felt and shift the new “normal” in our boiling pot. Personally, it’s too easy for Iran to threaten the strait so I think this is the least likely option, but unfortunately the best scenario too (well 2nd best, the absolute best is to go back to status quo before the war and Iran is cool with the petrodollar(they ain’t)).

Trump will have to weigh an extremely costly (in lives) ground war to open the strait by force. Which could/would unravel things in the US for him, the war would then be half assed till the US retreats and looses status as the world decision maker which causes a depression due to dollar devaluation.

What If he can’t figure it out in the ceasefire time? I genuinely don’t know. Trump might just tell the world to deal with it and we wont share our domestic oil and probably Venezuelan oil either . But what happens with fertilizer? That might be nation security number 1. The oil thirsty nations will do what Iran says for oil (which is pay in euro/yuans) and crush the dollar (causing US depression) .

At the same time , Iran agrees to negotiate because they wanna see if Trump is actually a coward bully and he gives them major concessions….they figure he’s probably not, but as soon as the US breaks the ceasefire they will sink a ship or something to show the world the US can’t secure the strait. Their goal is to damage the petrodollar and think nations will dump the petrodollar (major US depression) in favor of Euros/yuans to get the oil they desperately need , now a couple months deep by then.

What Trump does at that point idk. Losing the petrodollar will cause hyperinflation in the US and cause a depression. What the American public does will also be very interesting.

Right now, the longer Iran can hold off the US and survive the bombing, the more likely they can cause a US depression and that’s their best chance to survive and win this war/improve their future. Or if the US retreats they win without more destruction of their infrastructure and can hurt the US economy more. Or if the US invades they only have to fight like hell until the US public puts an end to it. Or if the US crosses the red line, the whole world is fucked as the gloves come off.

What’s bizarre is how I go to work and out in public and really no one is talking about the potential metaphorical nuke looming us or the potential depression coming. I think many know the new normal is going to be shit, and we just hope it’s not either of the next two shittier things.

The “intolerant left” is sitting by waiting for the “peace loving” right with their closets full of ammo to wake up and remove this admin , because if the left does anything the right/maga will go full J6.

Of course there is a slim chance somehow the US gets out of this with the petrodollar intact and the world gets its vital resources flowing, but what is the US willing to give Iran? Don’t worry, we have the art of the deal genius to influence how this plays out.