Ceasefire plan allowing Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz
Posted by lolthenoob@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 136 comments
Mikeynphoto2009@reddit
And now CNN is reporting China is preparing to send air defence missiles to Iran, the same class of weapons being used to shoot down US combat drones. Russia and China both arming Tehran. The ceasefire is 11 days from expiry.
Mikeynphoto2009@reddit
They published the mine chart on the 9th. Navigation routes, vessel caps, a dollar-per-barrel toll in crypto. You don't publish a map of something you've lost. You publish it when you're the new port authority.
anhangera@reddit
Is this "ceasefire" just the US sidestepping the fumble of the century so they can take out Cuba and have at least something to build propaganda on and hope people forget how fucking pathetic this country truly is?
MyCatIsLenin@reddit
Selling Cuba as a threat is going to be the most absurd spectacle i can imagine
ThatHeckinFox@reddit
They have no need to sell it, the public has no say in US politics, so their opinions are of little consequence.
DefTheOcelot@reddit
They're not gonna sell it as anything. There was no propaganda buildup to the iran war, either.
MyCatIsLenin@reddit
There was though. I can remember 15 years ago in college people saying Iran was a grave threat. It's being existent for awhile. Bush Jr had them in the axis of evil.
Cuba though? You gotta go back to the 60s
DefTheOcelot@reddit
I mean okay yeah theres the general cultural stuff
But i mean a specific ramping up of manufacturing a casus belli
StunningLetterhead23@reddit
Tbf, Iran and Israel have been at each others' throats ever since 7 October 2023 (most recently. If we're stretching the timeline, then it'll be something like "since the beginning of time").
Just last year, US bombed several of Iran's nuclear facilities.
US sure didn't manufacture a casus belli for themselves. What Trump did was to actually offer Iran a casus belli. Probably the first US president who successfully turned Iran from an international pariah to a martyr, fighter or "victim".
sailing_by_the_lee@reddit
It is interesting to read Roosevelt's speech after the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor, and to note the parallels between that attack and America's attack on Iran.
https://www.owleyes.org/text/pearl-harbor-speech/read/text-of-roosevelts-speech#root-6
loggy_sci@reddit
Nobody actually thinks Iranians are victims except Reddit
serioussham@reddit
Or historians
StunningLetterhead23@reddit
You're right.
I'm a redditor so that's why I also thought that the Iranians are innocent victims in a clash between IRGC and US govt.
If someone says that the Iranians are all indoctrinated since birth and are now mindless drones that blindly follow the IRGC's orders so they should be killed, I'd say that makes them even bigger victims than before.
Fact remains that we're the ones dehumanising them and bombing them into pieces rn.
gnutrino@reddit
Pre-revolutionary Iran actually had pretty good relations with Israel so really just "since 1979"
StunningLetterhead23@reddit
Ah my bad, I forgot about the existence of the Pahlavis. Thanks for the correction.
_trapd00r_@reddit
"Iran were on the verge of a nuke!"
Yet also: WH: "We entirely removed Iran's nuclear capacity!" / WH: "Fake news to say we didn't!" (...only a few months ago)
(Everybody else, including USA intelligence agencies): Iran weren't building a nuke... Khamenei even explicitly issued a fatwa against doing so, saying it wasn't Islamic
Anywho! - Iran were on the verge of a nuke!
Freud-Network@reddit
Iran has been weeks away from nuclear weapons for over 33 years according to Netanyahu.
PlasmaMatus@reddit
Yes but not by this administration.
stoiclandcreature69@reddit
Besides the stories about tens of thousands of dead protesters in a few days just from gunfire and executions
ModernSimian@reddit
Epstein was the preamble.
EggplantAlpinism@reddit
Yeah, Cuba is just hegemonic cruelty
TheRadBaron@reddit
The only thing they need to sell Americans on is blaming the Democrats for not stopping Trump, and Americans love buying that line.
Paradoxjjw@reddit
Is the line wrong? Democrats correctly identified Trump as dangerous, and then when Biden won they put a federalist society guy in charge of the AG and with that move made sure Trump would stay a free man. Everything happening now is a result of not holding Trump accountable.
appreciatescolor@reddit
The US doesn’t really bother selling narratives anymore. They steal and break things on behalf of elites and, if pressed, retrofit shallow excuses after the fact. They are in the getaway car, thrashing wildly as the empire dies.
Magjee@reddit
It's a shitshow
_trapd00r_@reddit
They just say sh*t and MAGA purely lap it up, so why bother even making the effort
imunfair@reddit
Because Cuban Americans have been salivating over the downfall of the Cuban regime for decades. Trump militarily taking over Cuba would buy those votes basically, although I think they do tend to vote Republican anyway.
TheRadBaron@reddit
There's no way that this would happen. Even if Trump wants it to happen, he just can't arrange something of this strategic complexity.
At most he'll bomb some schools, kill a few random politicians, and declare victory.
imunfair@reddit
He could probably kill off the regime leaders, I doubt they're prepared like Iran was, one set of decapitation strikes would probably effectively regime change Cuba. Not sure if that's on the table, but it's clear they're planning some sort of action against the country.
_trapd00r_@reddit
You're still cleanly missing the point that somehow Orange Doofus is gonna magically portray Cuba as a "THREAT"
phedinhinleninpark@reddit
Yeah, there's just no way that Cuba has had decades of provocations to consider the need for preparations, right
imunfair@reddit
It's more a matter of logistics, they don't have the resources Iran does, nor the population, and I doubt their government has anything resembling the decentralized structure Iran has set up.
HixOff@reddit
A small island 200km from the mainland, under a limited naval blockade, which could be made complete, versus a country 1/3 the size of the US, 10,000km away, with land borders with 7 countries, and another 4 across an isolated sea.
_trapd00r_@reddit
Oh for sure - he gets his personal oil sales receipts, that's as much of a f*ck as he gives about any country
_trapd00r_@reddit
May well be - the question was "THREAT to USA" though.
And that's not many votes, in the grand scheme of things.
Cuban Americans probably aren't too supportive of their hometown families being literally starved in the process, since that's what the oil blockade is doing (...until Russian oil was allowed through).
Trump's also denying medicine to African countries until they assent to his demands. Not a way to win popular support.
CurbYourThusiasm@reddit
I doubt they have to sell anything. Trump has complete and total power now.
recreationalgluttony@reddit
They'll just do the same thing.
Regime change for the good of the Cuban people. 🫠
ZackRaynor@reddit
And talk about a fumble.
Before - More moderate (comparatively) Iranian administration. Free passage through Strait of Hormuz Iranian Nuclear Deal where inspectors were allowed to check that they weren’t enriching Uranium for a nuclear weapon.
Now…
phaedrus910@reddit
They also shoot down a C-130 and an F-15. And that's just the moving targets we will never know how many stationary targets at bases were destroyed but you have to include the THAAD radar systems, like three?
blankedblank@reddit
still better than a 5-year-long 3-day special military operation ngl
r64fd@reddit
If there is one thing social media has done that people my age didn’t have when we were 20 is give access to world events in real time. Whether that’s good or bad is of course debatable.
It has taken away the monopoly of TV and print media’s credibility and lesson the impact of the constant propaganda. At least now there are a lot more verifiable sources than years ago, a few billionaires telling millionaires what to tell us.
cambeiu@reddit
If most of the 10 points stand, this will be America's Suez Canal moment and the beginning of the sunset of the US military and political hegemony.
It will else cement Trump's position and America's most consequential president in history. While FDR, Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson and Truman reacted to exceptional circumstances that they were thrown into, almost every major circumstance or crisis Trump faced/faces was of his own creation.
Roy_Atticus_Lee@reddit
Assuming even half of the ten point plan from Iran are accepted for a permanent peace, I can't help but post this passage from Catch-22 in response to this cataclysmic failure from the U.S as a global hegemon.
MrCockingFinally@reddit
The strange thing about this isn't so much that the US empire is failing, but more that it is failing in such an incredibly stupid manner.
historicusXIII@reddit
Damn, now Survivor Guilt by Rise Against is stuck in my head.
rcoelho14@reddit
Man, I haven't heard that song in years, my brain just played the whole sequence in their voice
Frustrataur@reddit
Thank you for sharing such a well-selected and poignant quote.
BendicantMias@reddit
Fyi prewar there were about 140 ships moving through the strait per day. That works out to $102 billion per year at $2 million per ship, or $51 billion annually if it's shared equally with Oman. Iran's GDP is about $375 billion. Their defense budget is about $9.2 billion.
NearABE@reddit
Do we have an estimate for the cost of bomb damage?
NorthernerWuwu@reddit
This was obvious from day one. I'd take credit but other political analysts were there too.
Once you mention or enact rent-seeking it happens and this America has been doing it for a while now. Panama, Greenland (affecting my sovereignty) Iran and eventually three other chokes.
Trump thinks the Navy should be paid for their imperialism. The rest of the world would prefer they fuck off.
China wins.
NearABE@reddit
Canada should do well with the precedent that is set. Charge for passing through the Northwest Passage. It is the shortest route from China to Europe. There are much larger populations in China and Europe. They can afford to pay Canada.
WoolooOfWallStreet@reddit
Yep
Iran was fighting within itself right before they were attacked
Their leader was turning 87 soon and in declining health
Literally all 🥭 had to do was nothing and that would have accomplished more
Illustrious-Run3591@reddit
I genuinely believe that is the true, fundamental cause of the tarriff wars, now escalating to real wars. The US and the west at large simply is being outcompeted by Asia. BYD are producing electric cars at 20% cheaper rates than the west, threatening to take out lynchpins of the US economy like Tesla. The Indian pharmaceutical industry is one of the fastest growing on earth, India is already producing 20% of the entire planets generic medication and that their pharmaceutical industry is predicted to double in the next 5 years.
The simple fact is that Asia was always richer than the west, then we became richer because of colonisation which lootd all that wealth from Asia. This is the natural order of things, the original silk road dominated economy is coming back.
StunningRing5465@reddit
Great (retarded) Man Theory of History vindicated. Historical materialists in shambles
IOnlyFearOFGod@reddit
USA got humiliated this round, after huffing and puffing about being destroying civilization, it had to step down for ceasefire and pay Iran tolls for its ships going through Hormuz.
Donald trump really is setting USA hegemony back significantly and if this continues then USA dominated world is no more.
DefDefTotheIOF@reddit
If he keeps doing this great of a job, I would urge you guys to vote him in for a third term. Best US president (for the rest of the world) ever.
Bartimeo666@reddit
That would be the second round of their civil war. This time without pretty and clear territorial lines...
NearABE@reddit
The lines were not pretty or clear in 1861.
handsoapdispenser@reddit
Trump got humiliated. Our military did what it does as well it ever does. Trump never even tried to set an objective, never mapped out a strategy, never thought through consequences. Just told them to start shooting at stuff.
Morgn_Ladimore@reddit
Bombing school children?
handsoapdispenser@reddit
It's 100% guaranteed that there will be collateral damage when bombs start falling. That has to be part of the calculation when you start an offensive action. Your strategic objective has to be achievable and worth the costs.
arostrat@reddit
bombing the schools was very intentional, and those dead children are not "collateral damage".
handsoapdispenser@reddit
It's exceedingly unlikely it was intentional. It's literally the definition of collateral damage. That doesn't imply it's justified. Collateral damage is what happens when you drop bombs. When you set a strategy you have to determine if the expected levels of collateral damage are worth the potential benefits. Military leaders certainly knew this and surely said as much but I'm also certain that was completely ignored by Trump who doesn't give a shit about human life.
arostrat@reddit
Shut up Orc. You spent months planning and acquiring targets you knew very well what was there.
handsoapdispenser@reddit
We know exactly what happened. It was human error.
rcoelho14@reddit
I thought that was Israel's speciality
imunfair@reddit
Don't worry, round 3 starts in two weeks or less, not eight months like last time.
RealAbd121@reddit
That's very unlikely, there is no "2 week rearming" break. first US need months to rearm not a week, second if you want to keep fighting Iran later, you're WAY better off to just never stop bombing them today, it makes no sense give Iran a sudden flood of cash and time to re-entrech itself and prepare for round 3!
imunfair@reddit
They don't really have any targets to bomb, that's why they've been attacking industry and threatening infrastructure. Taking a break allows them to use satellite resources and analysis like palantir to identify new military targets and track people to identify manufacturing, warehouses, and hideouts.
_Antitese@reddit
considering the us is agreement incapable, I doubt it will take 2 weeks.
Treinrukker@reddit
With what interceptors lol, they don't grow magically on trees. They have been flying transport planes nonstop this past month, 2 weeks ain't gonna change that much.
ToranjaNuclear@reddit
Iran and Israel are already exchanging fire apparently lmao
imunfair@reddit
Iran is still shooting because we hit them last and they want to retaliate for all the shit that we and Israel broke in the last 24 hours. If Israel stops shooting then Iran should taper off pretty quick, but they're not going to let us have the last word like Israel normally gets.
_trapd00r_@reddit
*Things like schools, hospitals, universities, water & power infrastructure...
Nobody in their right mind would lay back and say "yeah, we good!"
Montana_Gamer@reddit
So we get to help kill US Hegemony and make gas prices spike again in 3 weeks? Talk about a win win.
imunfair@reddit
I don't expect gas prices to go down much, in the short term there's still supply issues - it's just the futures prices that are dropping, and they were already lower than the spot price so they'll likely shoot back up once traders realize the supply problem isn't actually fixed in the near term.
Montana_Gamer@reddit
LOL you are so fucking right and I love it. I would imagine the slight increase in flow assuming ships are actually able to pay off Iran/Oman for multiple weeks could do SOMETHING, but at the end of the day the scale of this won't be abated and the infrastructure still at risk if target can amplify this problem to be a lot more long term.
just_anotjer_anon@reddit
Half of the infrastructure in both GCC and Iran, so that 20% figure of stopped flow. Is a continual 10% figure and now ships need to pay a few million extra for each shipment - Which also needs to be factored into price
Haze_Yourself@reddit
Why lose now and be done when we can start losing harder in late April?
The_GOATest1@reddit
It certainly gives strategy time but the US can’t meaningfully rearm a lot in that time considering the munitions used
snapchillnocomment@reddit
Basically mowing the lawn.
The Israelification of America's military strategy and culture is complete.
BendicantMias@reddit
Fyi prewar there were about 140 ships moving through the strait per day. That works out to $102 billion per year at $2 million per ship, or $51 billion annually if it's shared equally with Oman. Iran's GDP is about $375 billion. Their defense budget is about $9.2 billion.
alkbch@reddit
That’s wishful thinking
blankedblank@reddit
still better than a 5-year-long 3-day special military operation ngl
lolthenoob@reddit (OP)
Submssion Statement
Is this a surrender? Looks very close to one
MarderFucher@reddit
This is not a final deal, in fact, nothing about his is fixed. It's what Iran will enter negotiatons with, nothing more.
BendicantMias@reddit
Fyi prewar there were about 140 ships moving through the strait per day. That works out to $102 billion per year at $2 million per ship, or $51 billion annually if it's shared equally with Oman. Iran's GDP is about $375 billion. Their defense budget is about $9.2 billion.
ThatAmazingHorse@reddit
It's Taco Tuesday.
_trapd00r_@reddit
Beyond parody at this point
(Again with user flair!)
DefTheOcelot@reddit
Ssssshut UP!!!! We will discuss it as a surrender after it's already over. Let's stop the bombing, let trump not think about it too hard, THEN call it what it is.
ToranjaNuclear@reddit
Surrender on part of the US, you mean? Because the whole situation makes even less sense than usual. Trump was spouting shit about ending a civilization a few hours ago, now he agrees on terms that are completely unilateral for Iran?
Either Trump really chickened out and will pretend they won and this whole thing never happened, or the bombings will resume in two days tops.
lolthenoob@reddit (OP)
Yes U.S basically had surrendered if it let Iran get its toll.
CitizenMurdoch@reddit
Oman are going to make out like bandits on this one. If they split a $2 mill toll per ship between them equally like the news has been reporting, and traffic goes back to pre-war levels, Oman could be taking in $30 billion, which would be a 30% increase to their GDP, which is a game changing amount of money for a nation of 5 million people
BendicantMias@reddit
$51 billion. Prewar there were about 140 ships moving through the strait per day. That works out to $102 billion per year at $2 million per ship, $51 billion of which goes to Oman.
RealAbd121@reddit
The number will probably go down, the piplines that bypass the strait will not stay up 24/7 instead of turning off again. everyone will start working on long term ways to lessen their reliance on it.
BendicantMias@reddit
Tbh I don't even expect this to last. It's such a catastrophic embarrassment for the US that the only question is whether Trump can successfully convince his votebase otherwise. I'm not even sure he's even read the thing - I'm half convinced he just heard from his advisors that Iran had submitted a ceasefire proposal and jumped at the chance. He won't be happy if his votebase actually realize just how embarrassingly they've fucked this up.
However he can't be complaining about it being a terrible "deal" while also trying to sell it as a "win". So he'll be forced to either accept it to sell his narrative, or undermine his own PR by muckraking about it not being acceptable. Time will tell how this plays out in their politics.
RealAbd121@reddit
He probably really wants an out, he might try war again after like another year as revenge but he might also just never get around to it and when/if his term runs out the issue might just get toxic enough that future presidents decide "uhh... we don't want to touch this, literally all sides in this fight are toxic to approval ratings let the israelis and gulf fight it out with israel on their own"
BendicantMias@reddit
In another year he very likely won't have control of the senate. His popularity has plummeted, so everyone is expecting him to lose the mid terms this year. It'd also be an admission, albeit a delayed one, that he lost and/or got played. Considering that he literally sells himself as a 'dealmaker', and specifically attacked (and tore up) his predecessors' nuclear deal with Iran as 'the worst', isn't exactly a great look lol.
snapchillnocomment@reddit
We have no idea how much they're actually charging right now (and which countries they're charging).
Tbh, I don't think this toll plan will stick in the long term. If it does, then US hegemony is well and truly over. Plus, if they can get away with it, then a lot of countries will start charging for safe passage through international straits near their territory. It's a very ugly outcome and could add several dollars to each barrel of oil.
RealAbd121@reddit
Not neccerily, Turkey for example isn't obligated by law of the sea for example, yet they still allow free passage anyway because the leverage from having something to cut off is going to always be greater than some minor monitary concessions.
Singapore has no way of blocking their strait, Malayisa could but they're be shooting themselves in the foot as they destroy their industry to cash some some currencies.
CitizenMurdoch@reddit
The Iranian proposal said $2 mill, so that's what I'm basing that on. It could very well add cost to basically every good, but it's still going to be way lower than a continued war with Iran. An oil tanker can carry between 2 and 3.5 million barrels of oil, so the toll would add $1 a barrel. The other major straits that would be an issue would be the Straits of Malacca and Bab Al Mandab. Both of those do have alternates but very long and costly ones, but it does put a cap on how much they could viable charge as a toll. The Panama and Suez canal already charge tolls, so I dont think there is going to be much movement there. Its gonna a suck but it's not an economy destroying reality.
I think Trump just wants a way out of this conflict, and I literally don't think hes capable of second order thinking. Long term US hegemony doesnt matter to him, so hes willing to destroy it for the sake of immediate political expediency. It's the same as when he wanted to bail from Afghanistan in his first term. He just wants to be able to portray himself as someone who can bully others into a deal, and his supporters never read the fine print
russellvt@reddit
Interesting how Trump not only failed to get anything he or Israel "wanted" ... but Iran completely placed him over the barrel, without lube, and got huge concessions... just to "stop."
TACO Tuesday, indeed!
mrgoobster@reddit
Israel seems to have gotten a massive reduction in Iranian military capacity. I'm sure that was their goal all along (regime change was clearly bullshit), but that result probably wasn't worth the unintended consequences.
_Antitese@reddit
the "massive reduction in Iranian military capacity " are just Trump and Hegseth talking points. No one knows what the iranian capabilities are, for starters. And Iranian is still inflicting massive damage to Israel and gulf countries until today. This week they were the first ones in history to put down many US planes. How are them massively destoyed? The US and Israel also lost bases and radars that are incredibly important for their defenses against drones (because they can't hit ballistic missilles anyways). I suggest you watch your coutryman and MIT professor, Theodore Postol.
mrgoobster@reddit
'first in history' - are you kidding? The US lost 18,418 AAF planes against Germany in WWII, 4,530 AAF planes against Japan, 1,737 USAF aircraft to hostile action in Vietnam, 1,041 all branches in Korea, and so on. Iran has...two (2) independently verified kills on American fixed-wing aircraft? Not exactly groundbreaking, I think you'll agree.
_Antitese@reddit
I'm talking about the type of some of the planes
mrgoobster@reddit
Yeah, I was responding to what you actually said. How deviant of me.
TheWizard_Fox@reddit
Israel managed to cement its position as a pariah and Iran, though paying a very heavy price, basically eked out a meager victory despite fighting a two on one against two of the most formidable militaries on earth.
Not bad.
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
It really is a not bad not good situation for Israel though, at least they didn't take the brunt of the damage.
TheWizard_Fox@reddit
Like I said, they’re now seen as pariahs. That’ll follow them for a long time. Southern Lebanon will not stay in their hands.
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
It will stay, neighboring countries no longer have much appetite for continued conflict for the mean time.
We'd all be having grand children by then.
TheWizard_Fox@reddit
Hmm, I’d have to disagree.
Lebanon is not Syria. It has powerful allies, namely France who are likely to push the Israelis to cede the land back (after a short while).
Additionally, don’t discard the very real possibility that Israel will have the some of its leadership pursued by the international community for war crimes. These are very readily apparent on the attacks in Iran.
historicusXIII@reddit
It has one ally, and only barely so. What's France going to do? Ask nicely? Send a sternly written letter? Even if, and that's a big if, France actually puts some meaningful pressure (like economic sanctions), all Israel has to do is wait a year until Macron is out and Bardella is president, and than France will side with Israel over Lebanon.
How? Most European leaders have already stated they won't detain Netanyahu if he visits their country, openly challenging the ICC's authority. Meanwhile ICC members have already been put under sanctions by the US (including by private American companies like Microsoft). In practice, the ICC has become a bigger pariah than Israel.
_trapd00r_@reddit
Just to add: The Hague are already after Israel after Gaza.
None of them can leave the country, ever.
(Except to outliers, like... USA, who don't sign up to the ICC)
Maybe_this_time_fr@reddit
As much as I would love for these to happen, I just don't see it happening. At least anytime soon.
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
That's quite the optimistic assumption.
France has its own problems to deal with, it's not wrong to say Macron did that to get some PR. And it would be counter productive to resume its initial position that it once had.
Lebanon may or may not have powerful allies, but won't ever get the benefit when its divided. This is why I do not like Hezbollah presence in the first place.
They might have had a good reason to rise up, but staying this long has dragged Lebanon down more that it benefited it.
historicusXIII@reddit
Pariahs by who? Israel's defense industry is selling like never before. Not even China is cutting ties with them, let alone the EU. Within five years Israel will build settlements in South Lebanon.
_trapd00r_@reddit
Israel's losses are far more than actually reported (...since it's kinda illegal to report them, and only reported when they're already witnessed happening from frickin' SYRIA and JORDAN).
Even USA had to force satellite providers to stop providing updates.
Not to mention the diplomatic isolation they sunk themself into.
Crouteauxpommes@reddit
They also got the myth of the Iron Dome being without flaw debunked, a lot of civilian destruction; the realization that most of the world, including Western youth, prefer Iran to Netanyahu. They also started an ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon and an occupation that they can't really back down anymore but that will soon be under the spotlight. And they put in charge in Iran a regime that will probably get richer as some sanctions get lifted, be really keen on getting nukes (unless the Mollah who used it as a negotiation tactic).
I don't know if I forget things, but that's definitely not a full win for Israel
imunfair@reddit
Nah the stop is free, all it cost was concepts of an agreement that will never be realized.
NorthernerWuwu@reddit
Just so we are on the same page here, we are all fine with the cocksuckee pedophile rapist in the White House just because he didn't follow through on his threat to kill 90 million people?
That's cool? OK? Even good?
We need to be building drones now. In volume.
I'll be dead honest, the conversations obviously have happened but given the idiocracy down south, for the first time in my life (mid 50s) if our government said we'd sneakily made nuclear weapons, I'd be in the streets cheering like a madman.
voiderest@reddit
I feel like he'll get impeached before he can go to war with a NATO country. I would assume other countries would be first on the list and I don't think this war is over.
The people who helped get him elected again have already been talking about how he needs to go. And that was before he talked about "ending a civilization" and TACOd.
Not saying Canada or Greenland shouldn't take steps just that I think he'll fuck up too much before he is able to.
DeSynthed@reddit
No, trump will never get impeached. He could literally murder a republican congressman on live tv and they wouldn't vote to convict.
Chipay@reddit
If he truly backs out of this the next immediate crisis will be Cuba, then Greenland or Canada. Indeed, Canada better arm itself in whatever way possible against what's to come.
imunfair@reddit
He's not going after Canada, that's the same energy as the people who think Russia is going to attack the EU after they finish with Ukraine, both are absurd fearmongering.
DancesWithAnyone@reddit
The trick to fighting the USA seems to be to simply not give up, as eventually they will instead. Alright, I probably shouldn't use the word 'simply' here, lives are lost and it's not over yet and all that, but still.
NorthernerWuwu@reddit
Eh, it is what it is.
If he moves on the invade us or indeed out allies, I hope we would meet American aggression with all available measures.
As someone that had family in the US and indeed worked and lived there at one period in my life, I will never visit again and will preferentially avoid American goods as best I can. In my business I will avoid their products where possible. Should they invade, I will kill them as I see them, posing as a collaborator where possible.
alkbch@reddit
Yes, not killing 90 million people is good.
Look who is in favor of nuclear proliferation now, ironically that would give an excuse for the US to invade Canada.
Chipay@reddit
The US already has an excuse to invade Canada ('We want to annex them'). At least with nuclear proliferation that would immunize themselves against any further threats for all of eternity.
FemtoKitten@reddit
The US already has excuses and justifications though for their supposed 51st state project. They made it very loud and clear last year
PaoloCalzone@reddit
I have a theory that sticks in my mind. I don't know Iran's remaining military capabilities. But maybe they do have enough, even old, missiles to deplete interceptors, and kept the crown jewels in store, under heavy rock cover (medium-range hypersonic). And all of that is not taking into account any Russian, Chinese or North Korean logistical support.
Also, if the US is to leave, Israel has in fine lilited capabilities to sustain an air-based war beyond exchanging missiles, as they have limited refuelling capabilities in-flight without US support. My interpretation would, therefore, be that TACO, but also trying to preserve Israel's existential interests.
There is also this fringe theory on the Iranian side, where the rescue of the pilot was a failed anti-nuclear operation.
Trollimperator@reddit
The dealmaker is at it again. Spends half the military arsenal in the region and global economic hardship to strengthen Irans position and give them dominion over the Strait of Hormuz.
Everything this man touches turns to shit.
Rizen_Wolf@reddit
Not at all. What he touches turns to gold, for himself and select friends. But the law of equivalent exchange means what you have turns increasingly to shit.
aravena@reddit
Trump would never allow that with how often we go through it. We'd be so in debt to Iran. I'm surprised his catch phrase wasn't, "We'll open the Strait of Hormuz and they're going to pay for it."
We see how well the wall being paid for worked out like a character limit where people add BS at the end to reach it.
Phenergan_boy@reddit
Iran and Israel are still fighting btw. On top of that, the enrichment clause claimed by the Iranians in the Farsi version that Trump calls fake news, I am not sure if this ceasefire is going to stick unfortunately
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