POTUS says he has agreed to two-week ceasefire with Iran
Posted by Moikanyoloko@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 126 comments
Posted by Moikanyoloko@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 126 comments
BatmanForever93@reddit
Huge propaganda win for Iran. The US won't actually agree to any of these terms and the war will continue but this has been an embarrassment on every level for us and the embarrassment will continue.
ShoutOfDawn@reddit
well the ceasefire broke already, messages waring of iranian attack are being shared.
did the US/israel do something or are the IRGC so fractured one group refuses this ceasefire
studio_bob@reddit
Iran is responding to US/Israel bombings earlier in the day. In their acceptance of the ceasefire they only said they would stop their "defensive activities" when the US/Israel stop their attacks
ShoutOfDawn@reddit
i struggle to find the diffrence between what they said and like just regular old war, we will fight them while they fight us is just war, whats the ceasefire for?
Haze_Yourself@reddit
They’re using couriers, you literally have to wait for a guy on a motorbike to deliver the news. Shooting will die down unless we see a major escalation, and cease sometime tomorrow probably.
FridgeParade@reddit
Iran is a pretty modern country. Why wouldnt they be able to communicate using phones / radios?
Haze_Yourself@reddit
Security protocols. They have phone lines, as do Hezbollah. They’re trying to avoid signals intelligence and tapping.
kapsama@reddit
Ceasefires which Israel are part of don't resemble any conventional ceasefires. They attack anyway while complaining about being attacked. And Iran is not Hamas so there is retaliation.
Haze_Yourself@reddit
If they don’t stop in Lebanon, I don’t think this long reload makes it to the weekend.
russellvt@reddit
But those aren't "defensive activities" per se ... they're "new aggression" or "retaliation," which only prolongs the BS on both sides.
studio_bob@reddit
Huh? Point is, Iran had said they will stop shooting as soon as Isreal and the US do the same. All ceasfires take time to go into effect.
russellvt@reddit
Sadly, your logic seems circular.
This may also require the definition of "stopped," though that may become immaterial at later points, as well.
Point being: no one has provided even reasonably accurate (or somewhat speculative) timeliness for both sides, including treaty proposal exchanges.
CitizenMurdoch@reddit
The IRGC is operating on a very decentralized plan right now, and it is going to take time for orders from the top to reach in field commanders, more than likely strikes for today and maybe tomorrow have already been planned and there isn't an instantaneous way to stop them. I think its more than likely Iran will comply with the ceasefire but it will take some time for it to be implemented
russellvt@reddit
Some "news" is also delayed, and you'll get "new" reports of things that happened 12 or 14 hours or more ago... so, YMMV.
splashbodge@reddit
Don't ceasefires typically have a specific future date/time of when it's effective? To give them time to get the order across etc.i thought they did, like say at midnight
ThevaramAcolytus@reddit
More like it hasn't even properly fully taken effect yet and probably won't until some point tomorrow if it holds. These things usually aren't instantaneous.
ShoutOfDawn@reddit
man i hope you are right, i miss peace
BufferUnderpants@reddit
I don't think any temporary ceasefire is a win to Iran, it only allows the US and Israel to move munitions into the region and position themselves for a strike, throwing them off balance in a moment of overconfidence was Iran's edge, I can't see how relieving the pressure helps them win the war, if it's not that they really have it in the bag that Trump will work from their terms.
lolthenoob@reddit
Iran is claiming US has in principle agreed to this
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel
1—Commitment to non-aggression
2—Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
3—Acceptance of uranium enrichment
4—Lifting of all primary sanctions
5—Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6—Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7—Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8—Payment of compensation to Iran
9—Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region
10—Cessation of war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
Honestly, dont see the U.S agreeing to any of this... I suspect this war will keep going on
Moikanyoloko@reddit (OP)
Normally I'd agree, but:
From here.
So either Trump doesn't give a shit about the resolution of the war, and is ready to accept some of Iran's terms so that he can close off the whole thing, or this is just a break for markets to calm down and we will go back to our scheduled death and destruction by friday (when markets close).
Whatever801@reddit
I have seen 2 different versions of this list, the other is more pragmatic
Moikanyoloko@reddit (OP)
Fair, and besides, these are initial demands, its quite feasible that the end state will be different from initial demands if a peace agreement is reached.
Whatever801@reddit
Probably gonna end up looking a lot like the 2015 nuclear deal 😂
flirtmcdudes@reddit
like when he renegotiated NAFTA into the exact same NAFTA but with his name on the dotted line instead.
lolthenoob@reddit
Art of the Deal. Shred the deal. Bomb the leadership. Tank the global economy. Sign a worse deal.
SMH
Freethecrafts@reddit
The US administration literally demanded an end to sanctions…which the US administration is imposing. These are deeply unserious people.
BufferUnderpants@reddit
That was the most obvious resolution once the decapitation strike flopped, and Iran proceeded to grab them by the strait.
Israel dipping from a ground invasion that would lead to any lasting victory condition sealed the deal, it was going to be about for how much this was going to drag out and how many concessions Iran was going to be able to extract.
JustADutchRudder@reddit
Trump gonna announce we have decided to give Iran nukes in exchange for them to open everything and become our new best friends.
nuclearbearclaw@reddit
Where's the other list at? This one doesn't seem like one the US would agree to, especially with the enriched Uranium but also who fucking knows with Trump.
Whatever801@reddit
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/irans-10-point-peace-plan-whats-on-the-table-and-why-it-matters-1.500498882?hl=en-US I've seen this list essentially in a few places.
nuclearbearclaw@reddit
Yeah this one seems much more grounded, thanks for the response.
LEFT4Sp00ning@reddit
Would you happen to have a link to that other version? This one just seems too good to be true for Iran
Whatever801@reddit
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/irans-10-point-peace-plan-whats-on-the-table-and-why-it-matters-1.500498882?hl=en-US not sure how reliable this is but I've seen it from a few sources. Basically end of hostilities, lifting of sanctions and $2 million per boat split between Oman and Iran to cover rebuild
tommytwolegs@reddit
From what I can see, the actual proposal has not been published, which is probably why. The US can downplay the demands to make it seem like a concession, while Iran can exaggerate the demands to seem like the victor.
IlluminatedPickle@reddit
The Bosporus isn't international waters. Large parts of the Hormuz Strait absolutely are.
lolthenoob@reddit
Yeah I was thinking out loud on this and edited it multiple times.
IMO, for Bosphorus vs Hormuz.
The Montreux Convention explicitly prohibits Turkey from charging for passage. It can only charge for services like piloting or sanitation, and those fees are fixed (ratified by treaty and they cannot make new fees up) and the same for every ship regardless of where it's from (also ratified by treaty).
What Iran is just doing is different; military-enforced fee just for permission to pass, with US and Israeli ships barred entirely. It's more like a psuedo blockade + tolls (on friendly countries)
The precedent Turkey sets is the opposite of what Iran. It states you can administer a strait but you cannot charge for transit itself.
The danger this sets is the secondary precedent. Think about Malacca, Gibraltar, Bab el-Mandeb, the South China Sea. AFter that treaty (forgot what it was called) after WW2, the world agreed natural straits are free, no toll allowed, and no permission required.
If Iran pulls this off and the US doesn't stop it, every country sitting on one of those chokepoints learns that you can use the threat of non-compliance (military force) to force countires to pay tolls (a bit like protection money). Plus then you get the yuan angle too.
kapsama@reddit
"the world"
patgeo@reddit
It was a world war and the winners claimed the lot. Just ignore all those countries who weren't usa.
No2Hypocrites@reddit
Bosphorus is owed by turkey only, it's very narrow and in their national waters. Hormuz, is not. There's international waters between Oman and Iran.
Rushing_Russian@reddit
just wait for the talks to start i bet the US and Israel are going for the 3peat of bombing during negotiations, maybe they are trying to get more IRGC and government out in the open. how can anyone ever have talks with the US again
mfb-@reddit
The Bosporus is only something like a kilometer wide. Turkey has obvious and direct control over it.
flirtmcdudes@reddit
Trump has absolutely 0 leeway in keeping this war going. it destroys any chance they have during the mid terms which just means investigations into everything they are doing. Trump just wants an out
Spazum@reddit
Iran should reduce their demands down to two points: Trump and Bibi are removed as leaders of their countries, and handed over to the ICC for justice.
BendicantMias@reddit
The ICC hasn't even indicted Trump for this war (nor Netanyahu, although he's indicted for the Gaza war). Not cos neither of them deserve it, but cos it simply doesn't have jurisdiction. Also the ICC is already under intense pressure just over its prior indictment of Netanyahu. They're keeping quiet partly cos they're being torn apart.
Ambiwlans@reddit
This isn't the list I saw.
BendicantMias@reddit
Fyi prewar there were about 140 ships moving through the strait per day. That works out to $102 billion per year at $2 million per ship, or $51 billion annually if it's shared equally with Oman. Iran's GDP is about $375 billion. Their defense budget is about $9.2 billion.
splashbodge@reddit
So there were actually talks going on? So much posturing I don't know what to believe. Huge threats from Trump which is a shitty tactic if negotiations were happening. Then Iran saying there would be no negotiations. Then the US striking oil facilities hours before this supposed ceasefire... God it's all so dumb.
I expect this is just more market manipulation
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
Congrats for falling for straight propaganda, I guess.
Illustrious-Run3591@reddit
Fog of war, IRGC are surely quite scattered and not that organised currently, we were probably getting the truth from different people as they know it. people were likely unaware of negotiations if they were happening.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
Your claim and what your source says don’t match up.
Trump claims Iran agreed when all that happened is that he agreed to something we have no word on from the Iranians.
Which is all fucking weird considering this sub completly censored/burried recent U.S./Israeli attacks in Kharg Island and now we are being fed this “Iran agreed to a deal!” narrative from US media.
upbeatchief@reddit
Well the H W bush aircraft carrier is going to take a while to get ro the strait. Plus restocking/ transferring weapons and air defenses is going to take a minute.
So on the table of negotiations either iran giveost of these demands or war again .
I live in the gulf, just got a new message about an Iranian attacks, this ceasefire might have passed already
CitizenMurdoch@reddit
The IRGC is operating on a very decentralized plan right now, and it is going to take time for orders from the top to reach in field commanders, more than likely strikes for today and maybe tomorrow have already been planned and there isn't an instantaneous way to stop them. I think its more than likely Iran will comply with the ceasefire but it will take some time for it to be implemented
lolthenoob@reddit
Fuck. Hopefully that is just remnant IRGC groups that didn't get the memo. Because a two weeks lull (even if it is not permenant), give all sides a chance to breathe, and more importantly the world, to refuel storages, and provide a downward pressure on crude prices.
upbeatchief@reddit
Who knews, but the UAE subreddit are slso talking about getting an attack warning.
The US/israel have attacked so much of the leasership there might not be a single person able to demand ceasing of hostilities. Or that irgc leaders are dug so deep they didn't get rhe news. Or like you said, refuse the ceasefire altogether
ThevaramAcolytus@reddit
This news just broke within hours, so even if there is a ceasefire which is mutually observed and holds for any length of time, you probably won't see much change in the tempo of operations until at least tomorrow. Usually these things take a while to trickle down and actually take effect.
upbeatchief@reddit
Hopefully we get some peace.
lolthenoob@reddit
That’s grim. Stay safe out there. I hope those alerts are just a false alarm or a delay in the chain of Iran command (if there is a chain of command left). I read that the Gulf States don't have explicit bomb shelters...so just stay safe indoors?
it really always is this; When Elephants fights, the grass suffers.
The U.S threw itself into a massive war without considering 1.) Allies gulf states vulnerability, especially the civilians 2,) Asia's oil dependancy on Hormuz
At this point you can't even call it a coherent startegy. Just Trump directed chaos in search of a purpose.
studio_bob@reddit
Ceasefires (especially those involving Israel) often just been a lowered intensity of fighting rather than a complete cessation of hostilities. Additionally, Iran has said, basically said, "if you stop bombing us, we'll stop bombing back." The US and Isreal were both bombing Iranian industrial sites today, so these launches are likely the reprisal.
CitizenMurdoch@reddit
MAGA brains will simply see the apocalyptic threat, and then the subsequent ceasefire and opening of the strait and think Trump strong armed them into victory, and not a single one will take a look at the actual deal. Trump is absolutely going to agree to this the same way he agreed to the Taliban's deal in 2020
Mikeynphoto2009@reddit
You're closer to the answer than anyone else in this thread. There aren't "2 different versions" floating around by accident. There are two deliberate framings from the same body.
Araghchi posted the diplomatic version on X on 7 April: conditional ceasefire, two-week Hormuz passage "via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces." Measured, reasonable, designed for international consumption.
Simultaneously, Iran's SNSC released a domestic version calling it "the enemy's surrender on the battlefield" and claiming the US accepted enrichment, sanctions lift, withdrawal, and compensation.
Same institution, same hour, completely different framing. Both sides need this to look like the other blinked. Trump called the 10-point proposal "a workable basis on which to negotiate." The SNSC told the Iranian public it was total victory. The gap between those two versions is where this ceasefire lives or dies.
Your point on the yuan toll precedent is the sharpest observation in this thread. AP reports the ceasefire terms include allowing Iran and Oman to charge transit fees. If both littoral states co-administer tolls across the full 21nm width of the strait, that precedent doesn't reverse when the ceasefire ends.
Illustrious-Run3591@reddit
They don't have a choice lmao. Iran made US their bitch.
Sufficient_Bite_4127@reddit
the ceasefire was only meant to be 2 weeks anyway. my prediction is that Trump does nothing Iran demands, Iran refuses to open the straight, and the bombing will continue very shortly. If someone decides to start bombing before the two weeks, my prediction is that it will be Israel, since I don't think they have agreed to any ceasefire.
However, I am awful at predictions, so the truth is likely going to be the opposite of what I just wrote.
EfficientFix643@reddit
My initial read on the Pakistan Plan was that Israel would fubar the whole thing based on a seemingly unrelated Lebanon bullet point
ein125@reddit
No. You're correct. Israel will fuck this cease fire up. Don't be surprised if they're the fuckers who will drop the nuke (what I've thought all along) and give the US breathing room on the international stage. They're genocidal maniacs.
ManicPixieOldMaid@reddit
Since one of the points seems to be cessation of bombing in Lebanon I agree with you that Israel will fuck it up.
Saorren@reddit
i would bet its a taco and trump will go right back to bombing before the end of the week at best more likely it starts again within 24h.
wq1119@reddit
Most interested about this one....
splashbodge@reddit
Yeh, don't see Israel agreeing to that, and even if they did I don't see them actually stopping doing what they're doing.
Green-Cricket-8525@reddit
It will be Trump and everyone sane in America and the rest of the world knows it. Dude folds like a cheap lawn chair.
The only difference is that he will claim victory, chicken out and leave and his “very fine people” who support him will further that lie.
IHeartBadCode@reddit
If true, that would be a massive setback since Bush. UNSCR 1737. But of course that's highly unlikely, it would be a massive defeat for the United States if they agreed to that. There's just no way that can possibly be true.
whatproblems@reddit
so they’re doing what trump does? accept deals on their behalf?
EconomistStreet5295@reddit
For anyone wondering, as per BBC
“Here is the 10-point plan, according to an Iranian state broadcaster:
Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen
Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit
Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
Full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran
Full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran
Release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the United States
Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons
Immediate ceasefire takes effect on all fronts immediately upon approval of the above conditions“
Can I just say, if Trump agreed to this, then he must have been extremely desperate or just extremely stupid. What even is the point if now all sanctions are removed and they control the straight?
insightful_pancake@reddit
Nobody agreed to those terms. That’s just irans position for a permanent ceasefire
KronusTempus@reddit
The Americans have agreed to use this proposal as a first draft in Islamabad. These are the points they’ll be working off of to reach a final agreement (if it’s reached).
insightful_pancake@reddit
That is indeed what the Iranians are saying
sfharehash@reddit
Trump said "We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate."
EconomistStreet5295@reddit
Just about the most stupid 10 point plan the US could agree to if they really see Iran as an enemy. Did they really feel that much heat?
ThevaramAcolytus@reddit
Well, it's no secret that the war isn't going well for the U.S. But they can't be said to have lost any battle/specific single engagement or had mass casualties or some kind of irreplaceable material losses.
Any wavering is more likely due to growing domestic political backlash and fears of gasoline prices thinking of the year ahead (the summer and the November midterms).
Lizardledgend@reddit
The economies of the US' allies in the region are irreparably ruined. The billions upon billions spent by the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc over decades to appear like a safe haven for the uber wealthy has been irreparably damaged.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
Sorry but that reads like a bunch of cope very similar to Vietnam where the U.S. lost tens of thousands of aircraft.
The US is losing strategic assets worth billions of dollars that will take many years to rebuilt, if the host countries even agree to let the US rebuild.
It’s losing bases it spent the last 20 years establishing in the region, spending munitions in weeks it needed years to stockpile.
A whole super carrier taken out for months most likely due to sabotage as a result of low morale/support for the war even among American troops.
This is not a war that’s “not going well” it’s a war that’s backfiring about as hard as a war can backfire.
ThevaramAcolytus@reddit
Well, the Vietnam War was a clear U.S. defeat, but that defeat too was ultimately one generated as a result of domestic political backlash (obviously on a far greater scale). Don't get me wrong - the Vietnamese - both the conventional NVA and irregular North Vietnamese-backed NLF, performed brilliantly and executed their tasks well, so this is not to undersell their strategy or capabilities, but a large part of those tasks was specifically designed to generate and give rise to precisely the kind of homefront discontent which eventually became the pressure point to take the U.S. out of the war.
Because in this conflict, the war on Iran, there is no ground invasion and occupation, no singular mass casualty event or cumulatively high U.S. death toll, no draft and still an all-professional volunteer force, and a much more homogeneous and servile political class compared to the 60s and 70s, what we're seeing in that regard here is like a much more miniscule muted version of that.
In Vietnam, the military would have just kept going until it burned through all of the country or burned itself out - invading North Vietnam proper, nukes, anything. Because that's what military machines do, as with Imperial Japan's wanting to fight on indefinitely in 1945 until intervention and overruling by the monarchy and civilian figures in the government. That's why military juntas and states with an outsized voice and role for the military are generally a bad idea.
And let me be perfectly clear: I fully support - am a strong supporter in fact, of Iran's position in this conflict (despite being American myself). I just take a cautious view because I know the extent and depths to which the political class in Washington D.C. will go in a bid for and pursuit of lasting hegemony. They play the long game and are willing to inflict and absorb more losses than people may realize. I doubt this is seen as much more than a minor temporary setback, albeit coupled with a little embarrassment and loss of face. If a conflict isn't going their way in the moment they've proven willing and more than adept in the past through successive administrations to place it on ice for five, 10, 20 years and shift gears to a front elsewhere on the planet with more favorable conditions while using financial and intelligence tools to soften up the old front before returning.
I want a more independent Middle East and key to that is Iran enduring as a fixture and lasting regional power. But people tend to celebrate too early.
KronusTempus@reddit
The US had to abandon most of its bases in the region including the now former fleet headquarters in Manama, completely lost control of the strait of Hormuz, and managed to piss off all of its Allies in the region and beyond. This is the kind of blunder that makes it into the history books.
No wonder there’s growing domestic opposition
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
The U.S can simply rebuild these bases after hostilities ended, and they did not played a vital role in this war.
Not to mention, pretty much all of the official GCC channels has stated on more than enough occasions that they are firmly against Iran because of their attacks against them, there hasn’t been an indication the GCC was against the U.S from any of their statements or actions
ChillAhriman@reddit
Unironically yes. They've been burning thousands of millions worth of military equipment daily and they were nowhere close to achieving their goals, while Iran has put the global economy in check. It may not be obvious if you've only been reading propagandized headlines, but Iran is winning the war.
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
It’s only a two weeks ceasefire, not a permanent end to hostilities, so their assumption is wrong until both sides agreed.
Iran agreed to review the U.S’s 15 points plan, so does that mean they’re losing? Of course not, but both sides are reviewing eachother’s points
imunfair@reddit
Same way Russia and Ukraine keep calling each other's plans a good starting point.
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
The Iranians have also agreed in principle to review America’s 15 points from earlier weeks, which is conceptually opposed to this 10 point peace deal.
Only the ceasefire is active, and I really doubt both sides will give more than the minimal consideration for other points provided
kapsama@reddit
Doesn't matter if the US agrees anyway. Both the US and Israel have proven multiple times that their word is no good.
They'd say yes and then just attack again in 6 months once Israel's arsenal of interceptors are refilled.
EconomistStreet5295@reddit
Didn’t the US accept to use this as the basis for a ceasefire and for the negotiations?
insightful_pancake@reddit
Everything I see is 2 week ceasefire in exchange for open Hormuz for those 2 weeks.
EconomistStreet5295@reddit
I agree. I think best case is for both sides to kind of move on grumbling. Israel and Iran will continue to fight here and there, more terrorism will rise but the oil will flow again. Anything else (Baring an actual agreement of course) just makes zero sense strategically. The regime won’t surrender and there is nothing left to bomb that won’t substantially affect civilians
jamesbananashakes@reddit
So he basically retracted the agreement the Obama-administration established, because it was "bad", started an illegal war and almost committed serious war-crimes to establish the same agreement; but this time it's even more beneficial to Iran.. Art of the Deal everybody.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
“almost”?
CarrowCanary@reddit
Both?
Sufficient_Bite_4127@reddit
Trump has already said that the ceasefire will just be for 2 weeks, so idk how Iran will react to that
wq1119@reddit
He forgets what he mentioned 12 hours earlier, by 2 weeks he will have moved on a new topic to focus on.
rojotortuga@reddit
Im more wondering how Israel is going to react to this.
Sufficient_Bite_4127@reddit
Israel obviously doesn't want the conflict to end, but Trump definitely has enough leverage on the Israelis to make them stop firing for two weeks if he is actually serious about maintaining the ceasefire. I doubt the ceasefire will last at all though since Trump and Iran seem to have agreed to completely contradictory conditions. This all just seems like another market manipulation ploy by Trump.
EconomistStreet5295@reddit
I guess it’s worded as a basis for a long term solution
giboauja@reddit
Yeah the 10 point plan he might of accepted likely looks nothing like the one Iran posted.
America isnt leaving the region, there not letting them enrich uranium. Its likely just letting them toll the straight until costs are recovered, with the ocasional sanction lifted. I think Iran should split it with the Gulf state and repair those costs too (not the US bases, just civilian infastructure)
Largely because that would create a fascinating precedent.
Still im not going to be a dick about it. I dont care if america "lost", despite the recent dick sucking they've been geting (s tier propaganda) they are monsterous, I hate that they will likely come out on top of this.
I dont care, anything to stop a full escalation. If people think america cant level Iran, without nukes, are wrong. Hundreds of thousands would die and millions displaced.
So I dont care, I dont care who won or lost (jts a ceasefire, we'll see) the world loses when any nation chooses war. God knows we dont need another Ukraine, especially considering america largly has air supremacy. Russia doesnt in Ukraine.
bl123123bl@reddit
Irans 10 point plant been out for weeks as exactly this; however, nothing has been accepted that’s just the framework from where negotiations will begin over the ceasefire
Still an embarrassment to the US to accept a starting framework that is essentially full capitulation to Iran
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
Really? Iran cut communications with the U.S earlier today and was only compelled to agree to a uncertain ceasefire on the same day that energy infrastructure was to be bombed. Trump’s genocidal threats did enforced a sense of urgency to communicate
bl123123bl@reddit
Trump tweeted himself that Irans 10 point ceasefire would be used as the framework, I don’t see the point in pretending that didn’t happen
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
And the 15 point plan from the U.S is also being considered from Iran; so with that in mind, no shot are both sides agreeing to anything except for war in two weeks or a washed up Obama nuclear deal
BendicantMias@reddit
Iran rejected the US' 15-point proposal.
giboauja@reddit
I dont care, as long as the B52 dont level infastructure.
bl123123bl@reddit
Yeah that seems to have been the international pressure on each side
bluecheese2040@reddit
This was an off ramp for now. I don't see America agreeing to any of the terms Iran set out. Neither aide wanted to push it beyond the limit.
Russia will be forcing drones to Iran...China.will be sending what it can. America snd Israel will be doing the same.
Suspect we'll see this kick off again in 2 weeks.
The wild card is Israel imo. I don't think they will stop. I don't think America tells them what to do...they tell America what to do
BigDicEnergy@reddit
Oil crashes, Asian nations start hoarding, US assets get in position, Gulf radars repaired, Interceptors restocked, Intelligence updated
Iran is seemingly giving up all of their leverage for a narrative victory and brief respite for their populace. Israel, as always, does not regard a ceasefire it agrees to with any sanctity and will resume attacks whenever they want to. The US will follow Israel.
Iran has gambled on the US being honorable too many times and lost everytime. Another go at the casino I guess...
Vast-Papaya-514@reddit
Iran doesn't have a choice. The US can handle higher gas prices from a semi-closed strait way longer than Iran can handle having their entire economy and infrastructure decimated. You can't fight once your whole economy is destroyed. Plus they have a limited stockpile, no matter what, they can't keep fighting indefinitely.
BendicantMias@reddit
Not only does Iran have a choice, this deal massively favors them if it holds. Fyi prewar there were about 140 ships moving through the Hormuz strait per day. That works out to $102 billion per year at $2 million per ship, or $51 billion annually if it's shared equally with Oman. Iran's GDP is about $375 billion. Their defense budget is about $9.2 billion.
BigDicEnergy@reddit
There would be a global recession if oil and gas levels through SoH (and at point of production/refinement) continued to fall. Trump does not have the political leeway domestically and it would lead to a severe weakening of the petrodollar globally.
I think Iran could sustain for longer than the US can bear the consequences. The Iranian economy has also been in deep shit for a decade thanks to sanctions - it's hard to blind a man with no eyes.
Vast-Papaya-514@reddit
Iran wasn't closing the Strait...they were letting other countries through including US allies like France and Japan. Trump doesn't care about political leeway, he's a second term president and even if he lost the midterms in a landslide, there's not enough votes to convict him for impeachment. And I think any negative effect of the petrodollar from the Gulf is overblown, the status of the USD as the reserve currency is not challengeable in the foreseeable future. China is a dictatorship. The Euro consists of fragmented countries.
Being under sanctions is different than having your universities, pharma research centers, bridges, power plants, railways bombed. It's a matter of life and death for Iran, facing the destruction of their country and setting back their economy by decades at least. That is in no way comparable to US consumers dealing with higher gas prices and maybe having to work from home again like during covid.
BendicantMias@reddit
Fyi prewar there were about 140 ships moving through the Hormuz strait per day. That works out to $102 billion per year at $2 million toll fee per ship, or $51 billion annually if it's shared equally with Oman. Iran's GDP is about $375 billion. Their defense budget is about $9.2 billion.
Professional-Syrup-0@reddit
The big strategic U.S. radars in the Gulf countries won’t be repaired in two weeks, heck I’d be surprised if they are back up in 2 years.
Capable-Yam4557@reddit
Iran might also be benefitting by this temporary ceasefire.
There were some things that they were caught off guard, like the capability of US Air Force to operate inside their territory including pilot extraction a few days ago, or the capability to kill a lot of higher ups in the regime that caused chaos within their structure of command. Just a few days of breath and knowing that the US won't bomb them (at least until another escalation happen again) should be enough to consolidate command once again and fixing any strategy and infrastructure including repairing any missile and drone bases.
Without any ceasefire, Iranian command will be exhausted and unprepared for a ground invasion. But if they can maximize the next few days for consolidation, they will be better prepared because when this ceasefire ends without de-escalation to a peace agreement (most likely to happen) it will escalate to a bloody ground invasion which will be a very complicated military conflict.
Rindan@reddit
If Iran was genuinely shocked by the US air power, then I can only assume all of their commanders are stupid. Israel just owned Iranian air space for 12 days a few months ago. What did they think would happen when the US shows up with even better and more weapons?
Maybe, but it gives the US and Israel time to restock and reposition too. It seems pretty clear that the US wasn't prepared for a long conflict. One would assume that Iran was prepared for a long conflict. Now that even a moron like Pete Kegsbreath understands that they need to prepare, the US might move in more capable drone defense weapons while rearming.
You also need to remember that the US military is also learning, and being a learning military is a core piece of US military identity. So sure, Iran is learnings, but so is the US, and they are built for it and have much better insight into what is actually happening. The US military is going to be very carefully watching Iranian redeployments.
If Iran lots oil flow in and out of the straight, it also gives the US economic relief. Iran's only real leverage over the US is economic damage. Trump is a few steps from being lynched by his own party because of what they feared was going to happen to the economy.
I don't know. I can't say this move by Iran makes much sense to me if they actually give up control of the straight for two weeks.
If in two weeks there is no agreement, the straight stays open, and no one starts shooting at each other, Trump is going to walk away feeling vindicated again, and Iran will be in a vastly worse position having gained nothing. They have lost absolutely stupid amounts of equipment, thousands of lives, tens (hundreds?) of billions of dollars in infrastructure, and a not inconsiderable number of leaders.
BigDicEnergy@reddit
Not being under bombardment has obvious benefits for Iran in terms of military logistics but I just don't think that they benefit nearly as much as the US-Israel coalition. Part of the problem is that Iran does not know that they will not be attacked during the ceasefire - Iranian military leaders would be stupid to move out in the open during this period.
I am coming around to the analysis that the pilot rescue was run in parallel with an failed attempt to establish a ground base in Iran.
Vast-Papaya-514@reddit
I'm glad that this conflict has not been escalated, for the sake of all sides and the world at large.
It's just annoying that Trump was able to make one of the dumbest blunders ever by starting an illegal war with Iran for no good reason, not even considering they might block the Strait of Hormuz; and only because the country and military he leads happens to be the most powerful in the world, was he able to slither out of the massive political and economic quagmire he created by threatening nuclear war.
Now the Republicans are spinning this as a victory for him. I really wanted to see them badly punished at the midterms. Now they might not lose by a big margin.
liberaeli420@reddit
Unlimited humiliation for the US. Iran showed how to stand up against the US and attack the very foundation of the Empire (oil flow).
Trump could very well sell a complete withdrawal from West Asia as him ending foreign entanglements there. Iran will become immensely more powerful and prosperous should their demands be met.
But alas Israel and the US cannot be trusted to honor a ceasefire nor honestly negotiate. Things will be tenuous for the next couple weeks
kapsama@reddit
Iran would be very naive to accept these terms.
Easily broken. The US and Israel are not trustworthy. But let's assume they actually stick to this promise.
Easily reversed in a few months. --> sanctions
Easily reversed in a few months. --> sanctions
Easily reversed in a few months. --> sanctions
Easily reversed in a few months. --> sanctions
Easy to drag their feet for a few months and then refuse to do it.
Easily reversed in a few months. --> sanctions
The only avenue Iran should pursue. Large upfront payment in gold or similar items that can't be reversed in a few months.
Easily reversed in a few months. And as long as they don't attack no one will see the US as the deal breaking aggressor.
Easily reversed in a few months. And if Iran blocks the Hormuz over Hezbollah they will be blamed instead of Israel.
This whole thing is basically agreeing to a bunch of terms you will just ignore or reverse in a few months, but as long as you don't bomb Iran, everyone will blame Iran for starting a new conflict if they blockade the Hormuz again and NO ONE will care that the US and Israel broke their promises.
So get that upfront payment. Much harder to take that back.
russellvt@reddit
TACO Tuesday, indeed!
So, essentially Iran gets all concessions, and Trump runs off with his tail between his legs ... again.
"No one" saw this coming, of course! /s
What a freakin' loser.
Note: I am not thinking anything other than "Iran should at least cede international waters," again. Other than that, it's essentially exactly what I was anticipating.
Hamiltonblewit@reddit
They don’t get all concessions, only the ceasefire which is a two weeks cease of hostilities and a one strait.
Iran and the U.S are both reviewing each other’s maximialists points for a ceasefire but given how opposed their points are, I doubt a permanent ceasefire would come
wq1119@reddit
Taco Tuesday isn't a meme holy shit.
Advanced-Net-8119@reddit
I think that Trump has recognized that to achieve regime change in Iran, he would have not go in with a ground invasion. A ground invasion of iran would be by far the most significant ground invasion since D day. Iran is massive country, go to thetruesize.com and overlay them over europe. They are almost the size of western europe. To attempt a ground invasion would entail a truly MASSIVE operation that even someone like trump would not want to get into. Bombing the shit out of them, as has been proven time and time against in our history, is not enough to get a country to regime change.
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