Well, the Vietnam War was a clear U.S. defeat, but that defeat too was ultimately one generated as a result of domestic political backlash (obviously on a far greater scale). Don't get me wrong - the Vietnamese - both the conventional NVA and irregular North Vietnamese-backed NLF, performed brilliantly and executed their tasks well, so this is not to undersell their strategy or capabilities, but a large part of those tasks was specifically designed to generate and give rise to precisely the kind of homefront discontent which eventually became the pressure point to take the U.S. out of the war.

Because in this conflict, the war on Iran, there is no ground invasion and occupation, no singular mass casualty event or cumulatively high U.S. death toll, no draft and still an all-professional volunteer force, and a much more homogeneous and servile political class compared to the 60s and 70s, what we're seeing in that regard here is like a much more miniscule muted version of that.

In Vietnam, the military would have just kept going until it burned through all of the country or burned itself out - invading North Vietnam proper, nukes, anything. Because that's what military machines do, as with Imperial Japan's wanting to fight on indefinitely in 1945 until intervention and overruling by the monarchy and civilian figures in the government. That's why military juntas and states with an outsized voice and role for the military are generally a bad idea.

And let me be perfectly clear: I fully support - am a strong supporter in fact, of Iran's position in this conflict (despite being American myself). I just take a cautious view because I know the extent and depths to which the political class in Washington D.C. will go in a bid for and pursuit of lasting hegemony. They play the long game and are willing to inflict and absorb more losses than people may realize. I doubt this is seen as much more than a minor temporary setback, albeit coupled with a little embarrassment and loss of face. If a conflict isn't going their way in the moment they've proven willing and more than adept in the past through successive administrations to place it on ice for five, 10, 20 years and shift gears to a front elsewhere on the planet with more favorable conditions while using financial and intelligence tools to soften up the old front before returning.

I want a more independent Middle East and key to that is Iran enduring as a fixture and lasting regional power. But people tend to celebrate too early.