Having seen behind the curtains of this world you would be shocked how much of global affairs is driven by accidents, human incompetence and bad faith interpretations of common events. The classic examine is the sinking of the Maine that led to the Spainish American war that was not a torpedo or false flag but just a normal accident.

A good analyst should always work from the assumption that in a vacuum incompetence or accidents are way more likely explanations for anything that covert ops. What you need to do is see if you can isolate and investigate specific incidents or look at data trends to make judgements.

For instance let's look at the details of these incidents to see what stands out and understand root cause. Then look at data trends of incidents like this too see if they are a normal amount of accidents or abnormal.