Submitted because it might seem like the war in Iran hasn't had many consequences in the rest of the world while in reality we're likely to see economic destruction at around 20%.
Just that statement alone shows how ignorant you Americans are. The war in Iran has had HUGE consequences in the rest of the world. Your ex-allies scrounging to get fuel- facing rationing. Fertiliser and diesel shortages so our farmers might not be able to plant winter crops. Your ignorance is Ming blowing
Yeah as an American I do realize that we are currently somewhat insulated from what’s happening in the rest of the world. Unlike most Americans I have lived outside the US for a couple of years thanks to the military and realize how other countries function. I keep telling Americans we’re extremely spoiled in this country and I honestly want the US to finally get a taste of what the rest of the world is really like when it comes to global problems.
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Sulfur is the big one that everybody's kind of glossing over. Without it Morocco's OCP can't produce phosphoric acid (used to make DAP, MAP, and TSP fertilizer) and the OCP has already cut Q2 production some 30%.
Just like our inability to comprehend exponential growth so too do we not understand the complexity & almost peristaltic speed of global supply chains.
We are literally still waiting for the harsh reality to sink in. This is still the calm before the storm if you can believe that.
The video does mention lng but only in terms of natural gas. Leaves out the broader context of reduced supplies from the Ukraine conflict.
Aluminum is energy intensive and so is refining copper and other industrial metals.
Starts to delve into food but since 90% of the cost of food is oil.
Yes some good points there, especially about Ukraine increasingly attacking Russian oil, ironic how the world is now morally ok taking unsanctioned Russian/Iranian crude.
Oh, yeah it has had consequences, price of gas is up and stuff. Just that relative to the consequences we'll see in a few months this has been nothing.
We pay a lot less than the rest of the world? No, I didn't realize that. I was just saying that relative to the negative effects we've seen already, it seems things will get much worse.
No shit but you should look at the shite level reporting we get in general. The cognitive dissonance we deal with daily. I am exhausted just trying to have conversations here. People are massively out of touch and our news does not help.
When someone from the US, myself included, THANKS someone in the weekly thread for their update from somewhere else we are serious. We have a dearth of solid info here.
And yes, many of us do search out news from france, japan, uk, anything from brazil, singapore, kenya, whatever we can get to. But in many ways it gets drowned out by the stupid around us.
Our costs are indirect because we buy a lot of bombs with our tax dollars, plus we are very compassionate to our poor beleaguered billionaires--we like cutting their taxes because we don't like to see them struggle.
Just google 73 or 79 fuel crisis for some reference of how this may play, spolier alert unemployment 》10% interest rates 》 10% food and and energy supply disruption. Potential positives, EV and solar can offset some of this pain. American as we knew it is dead. Shits going to ger real.
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Not so much because America produces and refines most of its own fossil fuels. Not all, but most. Prices are rising thanks to global markets and windfall profits but availability is not going to be seriously affected.
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Yes, but oil is a global market. So these companies will just sell to the highest bidder, raising prices. Unless the government steps in and forces them to sell and controls the price, which would probably mean rationing I think.
That oil crisis was the result of OPEC making a policy decision to stop shipments. This crisis sees the destruction of oil equipment, both production, ports, and ships. For example, Qatar has said it will take a minimum of 3 years to repair its natural gas fields and resume full production.
Also, the Ukraine war shows how modern warfare is a slow grind, even including trench warfare. I pray that this conflict ends soon but it could go on for years because Iran's war objective is the permanent safety of its state.
To kill the inflation of 79-81, Tall Paul Volcker, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, pushed interest rates to 20%. That's the base interest rate for deposits on account with the Fed. Let me tell you, real, retail interest rates got higher. I can't even imagine what commercial paper rates were for anything less than AAA credit. It takes money to make stuff, 'cause you don't get paid first.
Most central banks know now interest rates don't do anything about energy costs and food prices. People don't cut spending much on necessities. If anything it just causes more inflation by making debt more expensive for businesses so they have to further raise prices.
I think that's a good starting point and suggestion. :-)
My big worry is that the world is even more intertwined compared to the 70s. Back then most of the West were still industrialized and largely more self reliant. The video touches on this briefly, but the complex global supply chains and just-in-time economics we have now could make this crisis far, far worse. Not claiming to be an expert on these things, just a gut feeling that shit is going to get real bad, real fast. Hoping I'm wrong, as is usual.
this is a really well made breakdown and it lines up almost exactly with what we've been tracking on hedge.hrdcopy.com, the bicycle speed thing, the april 10 and 15 buffer dates, the fake lull, all of it.
we actually built a supply clock section last week after a commenter here made this same point before this video came out. it has live countdown timers showing days until the US and Europe pre-war oil buffers exhaust, plus refinery utilization tracking so you can watch the downstream effects in real time.
the part about demand destruction is the piece most people aren't thinking about yet. even if hormuz reopens tomorrow, qatar's LNG facilities and multiple refineries across the gulf are physically damaged. that infrastructure takes years to rebuild. the video is right that this winter is going to be the first real test.
one thing I'd add that the video doesn't cover is the fertilizer angle. it's not just oil flowing through hormuz. qatar produces 14% of the world's urea (nitrogen fertilizer) and that's been offline since march 4. china banned fertilizer exports through august on top of that. the planting window is closing right now and farmers can't get inputs at any price in some cases. that's a food price shock that hits 6-9 months after the energy shock, right around the same winter timeline he's talking about.
the dashboard tracks all of this if anyone wants to follow along. completely free, no account needed.
Not sure why you got downvoted for this, but I looked into it a bit after seeing your message and it's now part of our prep list. We already use a urine-diverting composting toilet, so it's an easy shift.
I’m curious, how are the oil prices affected in the countries that produce majority of their own supply and don’t need them to use the strait of Hormuz to get their oil? Are they still being affected and how severely?
Good maybe we all force the pivot to electric cars. Auto companes so making them because we are too stupid to buy them. Also maybe we stop commuting in to work and go back to work from home. We proved it worked during covid
LOL. Like mining, smelting, processing and manufacturing 2 million tons of ore, plastic, lithium and copper and then shipping it around the world and turning it into a 6000# car so you can carry you and a cup of coffee to the office is a solution. Delulu.
I know that's not the reality. It's also why climate collapse is going to happen. Because we simply can't imagine NOT growing. We can't imagine NOT having an the trappings ( funny word there, trap) of industrialized society.
They are slightly better for sure, and they will be built. It's just not going to fix anything.
Im expecting to see a windfall in sales for e-bikes sales . Up here in canada, most EVs are outside of people's current price ranges . Evenmore so under this pressure
It's tragic that you can make people believe cars with 500kg batteries are clean, green and zero.
Some unfortunate facts for you:
A gasoline powered Renault Clio emits less CO2 than a Tesla Model S and costs 1/10th... according to a scientific paper from over 10 years ago. Tesla said as a response that their cars compete with the Mercedes S Class. Nothing about the technology has changed since.
Most of the microplastics in the water, air, fetusses, your brain... are synthetic rubber from car tyre and because of their extra weight, electric cars shed more microplastics.
I'm going to stock up on food for my cats and dogs. If Shit really hits the fan, I'm planning to raid the vets office when everyone else is raiding the grocery stores. I don't want them going hungry and being forced to fend for themselves. I'm glad I didn't have kids, just this thought is enough to stress me the eff out.
I bought a year of extra food a year ago and weve been fifo ing it in so we have that buffer amount for our kitties! Probably ordering and extram few konths worth tonite too.
This is something that always worried me as well. My cat was nearly 20 years old. He suddenly and rapidly deteriorated two weeks ago and I had to put him to sleep. It was awful, I am extremely sad, and miss him terribly but there is a tiny part of me that is relieved that I won't have to worry about having food and medicine for him if shit gets bad. I would have felt so guilty and awful if I couldn't provide enough for him. I am also glad I never wanted kids so don't have to worry about either thankfully.
I did the same actually. I bought a 20 lb bag of cat food last week and plan to buy plenty more in the coming weeks and months that can last up to a year. My cat is not going to go hungry. End of.
No matter what you say about humans, we are an expert at adapting. This is a complete eye opener that we should not be reliant on a single energy source, let alone on a single country.
oil shocks are rough for traditional portfolios since you cant hedge in real time. most brokers close at 4pm and weekends are a black hole. if youre trying to actually trade around geopolitical moves, you need something thats open when news breaks.
futures accounts work but margin requirements are steep and learning curve is real. cfds through offshore brokers are an option but counterparty risk is sketchy. markets.xyz lets you trade oil 24/7 including weekends with crypto margin, so when saturday news hits you can actualy react instead of waiting til monday.
This is a well made basic explainer video. Most people in r/collapse are probably already aware of all of this but it would be a great video to share with friends who maybe don't quite get it yet.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Sherris010:
Submitted because it might seem like the war in Iran hasn't had many consequences in the rest of the world while in reality we're likely to see economic destruction at around 20%.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1sdg29r/oil_shock_to_hit_every_country/oeiafcs/
Sherris010@reddit (OP)
Submitted because it might seem like the war in Iran hasn't had many consequences in the rest of the world while in reality we're likely to see economic destruction at around 20%.
loralailoralai@reddit
Just that statement alone shows how ignorant you Americans are. The war in Iran has had HUGE consequences in the rest of the world. Your ex-allies scrounging to get fuel- facing rationing. Fertiliser and diesel shortages so our farmers might not be able to plant winter crops. Your ignorance is Ming blowing
MavinMarv@reddit
Yeah as an American I do realize that we are currently somewhat insulated from what’s happening in the rest of the world. Unlike most Americans I have lived outside the US for a couple of years thanks to the military and realize how other countries function. I keep telling Americans we’re extremely spoiled in this country and I honestly want the US to finally get a taste of what the rest of the world is really like when it comes to global problems.
deleted_by_reddit@reddit
[removed]
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leisurechef@reddit
It is a good explanation but imo doesn’t go far enough as there is also LNG, Fertiliser, Helium, Aluminium, etc…
Realistic-Science-59@reddit
Sulfur is the big one that everybody's kind of glossing over. Without it Morocco's OCP can't produce phosphoric acid (used to make DAP, MAP, and TSP fertilizer) and the OCP has already cut Q2 production some 30%.
leisurechef@reddit
Just like our inability to comprehend exponential growth so too do we not understand the complexity & almost peristaltic speed of global supply chains.
We are literally still waiting for the harsh reality to sink in. This is still the calm before the storm if you can believe that.
daviddjg0033@reddit
The video does mention lng but only in terms of natural gas. Leaves out the broader context of reduced supplies from the Ukraine conflict.
Aluminum is energy intensive and so is refining copper and other industrial metals. Starts to delve into food but since 90% of the cost of food is oil.
leisurechef@reddit
Yes some good points there, especially about Ukraine increasingly attacking Russian oil, ironic how the world is now morally ok taking unsanctioned Russian/Iranian crude.
grating@reddit
What? - it doesn't at all seem like that - or is that the picture you're being fed in the US?
Sherris010@reddit (OP)
Oh, yeah it has had consequences, price of gas is up and stuff. Just that relative to the consequences we'll see in a few months this has been nothing.
loralailoralai@reddit
So blasé. It’s far more than that and you DO realise you lot pay far less for petrol to start with right?
Sherris010@reddit (OP)
We pay a lot less than the rest of the world? No, I didn't realize that. I was just saying that relative to the negative effects we've seen already, it seems things will get much worse.
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
No shit but you should look at the shite level reporting we get in general. The cognitive dissonance we deal with daily. I am exhausted just trying to have conversations here. People are massively out of touch and our news does not help.
When someone from the US, myself included, THANKS someone in the weekly thread for their update from somewhere else we are serious. We have a dearth of solid info here.
And yes, many of us do search out news from france, japan, uk, anything from brazil, singapore, kenya, whatever we can get to. But in many ways it gets drowned out by the stupid around us.
No_Neighborhood7614@reddit
Diesel cost has doubled in Australia.
Ok-Restaurant4870@reddit
Can’t even imagine what’s coming our way down under.
loralailoralai@reddit
While yanks squeal about petrol going up to still be cheaper than what we paid before it started- and Europe pays even more.
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Our costs are indirect because we buy a lot of bombs with our tax dollars, plus we are very compassionate to our poor beleaguered billionaires--we like cutting their taxes because we don't like to see them struggle.
eggplantpot@reddit
It takes months for these type of repercussions to propagate throughout the economy. Things are going to get dire.
Disastrous_Profit152@reddit
Just google 73 or 79 fuel crisis for some reference of how this may play, spolier alert unemployment 》10% interest rates 》 10% food and and energy supply disruption. Potential positives, EV and solar can offset some of this pain. American as we knew it is dead. Shits going to ger real.
deleted_by_reddit@reddit
[removed]
CollapseBot@reddit
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Distinguishedflyer@reddit
why high interest rates?
luminousrose9@reddit
I was alive those years! No need to Google.
ttystikk@reddit
Not so much because America produces and refines most of its own fossil fuels. Not all, but most. Prices are rising thanks to global markets and windfall profits but availability is not going to be seriously affected.
DestroyTheMatrix_3@reddit
Let's hope you're right
loralailoralai@reddit
Why? Your idiot caused this, y’all need to suffer with the rest
collapse-ModTeam@reddit
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TADHTRAB@reddit
Yes, but oil is a global market. So these companies will just sell to the highest bidder, raising prices. Unless the government steps in and forces them to sell and controls the price, which would probably mean rationing I think.
HappyCamperDancer@reddit
Wrong kind of oil though.
ttystikk@reddit
Not all of it! Good grief, the mismatch is less than 20%
stasi_a@reddit
How much does the admin pay you for PR?
ttystikk@reddit
Do you seriously think that none of what America pumps out of American wells can be used in American refineries?
TraumaMonkey@reddit
Our refineries are mostly built to refine oil that we don't extract here. We can't quickly change that, either.
no_spoon@reddit
We get most of it from Canada. Jesus the lack of critical thinking in this sub…
TraumaMonkey@reddit
Do you even know what critical thinking is?
These are just facts about the oil trade.
no_spoon@reddit
But you’re fueling (no pun intended) the fear that it will be like the ‘73 shortage and that’s just not true.
TraumaMonkey@reddit
I didn't say anything about the 73 oil crisis. Don't insert statements where I didn't put them.
no_spoon@reddit
It’s the thread we are both replying to.
tpahornet@reddit
Petrol is a commodity, highest bidder gets the carrot. They are under no obligation to sell American consumers that petrol.
merikariu@reddit
That oil crisis was the result of OPEC making a policy decision to stop shipments. This crisis sees the destruction of oil equipment, both production, ports, and ships. For example, Qatar has said it will take a minimum of 3 years to repair its natural gas fields and resume full production.
Also, the Ukraine war shows how modern warfare is a slow grind, even including trench warfare. I pray that this conflict ends soon but it could go on for years because Iran's war objective is the permanent safety of its state.
Sherris010@reddit (OP)
It seems likely to be more than 10% but yeah it seems that way.
magicwombat5@reddit
To kill the inflation of 79-81, Tall Paul Volcker, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, pushed interest rates to 20%. That's the base interest rate for deposits on account with the Fed. Let me tell you, real, retail interest rates got higher. I can't even imagine what commercial paper rates were for anything less than AAA credit. It takes money to make stuff, 'cause you don't get paid first.
ChelseaHotelTwo@reddit
Most central banks know now interest rates don't do anything about energy costs and food prices. People don't cut spending much on necessities. If anything it just causes more inflation by making debt more expensive for businesses so they have to further raise prices.
volci@reddit
Central banks all know they to nothing but accelerate inflation and commit skimming/fraud/money laundering against the public
Does not stop them from saying they are trying to help and the masses believing them
Johannes_P@reddit
And it might cause some bubbles such as AI to collapse, since there would be less liquidity around.
VandeSas@reddit
I think that's a good starting point and suggestion. :-)
My big worry is that the world is even more intertwined compared to the 70s. Back then most of the West were still industrialized and largely more self reliant. The video touches on this briefly, but the complex global supply chains and just-in-time economics we have now could make this crisis far, far worse. Not claiming to be an expert on these things, just a gut feeling that shit is going to get real bad, real fast. Hoping I'm wrong, as is usual.
lynk1@reddit
this is a really well made breakdown and it lines up almost exactly with what we've been tracking on hedge.hrdcopy.com, the bicycle speed thing, the april 10 and 15 buffer dates, the fake lull, all of it.
we actually built a supply clock section last week after a commenter here made this same point before this video came out. it has live countdown timers showing days until the US and Europe pre-war oil buffers exhaust, plus refinery utilization tracking so you can watch the downstream effects in real time.
the part about demand destruction is the piece most people aren't thinking about yet. even if hormuz reopens tomorrow, qatar's LNG facilities and multiple refineries across the gulf are physically damaged. that infrastructure takes years to rebuild. the video is right that this winter is going to be the first real test.
one thing I'd add that the video doesn't cover is the fertilizer angle. it's not just oil flowing through hormuz. qatar produces 14% of the world's urea (nitrogen fertilizer) and that's been offline since march 4. china banned fertilizer exports through august on top of that. the planting window is closing right now and farmers can't get inputs at any price in some cases. that's a food price shock that hits 6-9 months after the energy shock, right around the same winter timeline he's talking about.
the dashboard tracks all of this if anyone wants to follow along. completely free, no account needed.
CompostYourFoodWaste@reddit
Good thing we can get urea from urine.
lynk1@reddit
Not sure why you got downvoted for this, but I looked into it a bit after seeing your message and it's now part of our prep list. We already use a urine-diverting composting toilet, so it's an easy shift.
CompostYourFoodWaste@reddit
That's great! It can be mixed with a carbon source (wood chips, etc) to make compost.
TheHatKing@reddit
I’m curious, how are the oil prices affected in the countries that produce majority of their own supply and don’t need them to use the strait of Hormuz to get their oil? Are they still being affected and how severely?
Sherris010@reddit (OP)
Most countries export their oil to be refined. This is a good question though, I wonder if any country is self sufficient enough.
TheHatKing@reddit
Yeah and like the ones that use the strait but can’t get it out, I wonder if they would they have had an oversupply at least briefly
thainfamouzjay@reddit
Good maybe we all force the pivot to electric cars. Auto companes so making them because we are too stupid to buy them. Also maybe we stop commuting in to work and go back to work from home. We proved it worked during covid
J-A-S-08@reddit
LOL. Like mining, smelting, processing and manufacturing 2 million tons of ore, plastic, lithium and copper and then shipping it around the world and turning it into a 6000# car so you can carry you and a cup of coffee to the office is a solution. Delulu.
thainfamouzjay@reddit
You saying we don't mine smelt process or manufactured normal gas cars?
J-A-S-08@reddit
Of course we do! And it's just as unsustainable as doing that for electric cars.
thainfamouzjay@reddit
So if we do it for gas already what's the difference to do it for electric cars?
J-A-S-08@reddit
The point is we shouldn't be building cars at all.
thainfamouzjay@reddit
I agree with you but that's not the reality.... If we are gonna build them we should make them affordable electric cars.
J-A-S-08@reddit
I know that's not the reality. It's also why climate collapse is going to happen. Because we simply can't imagine NOT growing. We can't imagine NOT having an the trappings ( funny word there, trap) of industrialized society.
They are slightly better for sure, and they will be built. It's just not going to fix anything.
jbon87@reddit
Im expecting to see a windfall in sales for e-bikes sales . Up here in canada, most EVs are outside of people's current price ranges . Evenmore so under this pressure
TheRationalPsychotic@reddit
It's tragic that you can make people believe cars with 500kg batteries are clean, green and zero.
Some unfortunate facts for you:
A gasoline powered Renault Clio emits less CO2 than a Tesla Model S and costs 1/10th... according to a scientific paper from over 10 years ago. Tesla said as a response that their cars compete with the Mercedes S Class. Nothing about the technology has changed since.
Most of the microplastics in the water, air, fetusses, your brain... are synthetic rubber from car tyre and because of their extra weight, electric cars shed more microplastics.
Fit-Ad-741@reddit
We're so so far beyond that doing anything.
Fit-Ad-741@reddit
I'm going to stock up on food for my cats and dogs. If Shit really hits the fan, I'm planning to raid the vets office when everyone else is raiding the grocery stores. I don't want them going hungry and being forced to fend for themselves. I'm glad I didn't have kids, just this thought is enough to stress me the eff out.
chefkoolaid@reddit
I bought a year of extra food a year ago and weve been fifo ing it in so we have that buffer amount for our kitties! Probably ordering and extram few konths worth tonite too.
Maybr I should get human stuff as well
itsboringhowwrongur@reddit
Vet offices are usually pretty solid structures too. Idk why, but vet offices I see are built like prisons. Thick walls and small windows.
Lothirieth@reddit
This is something that always worried me as well. My cat was nearly 20 years old. He suddenly and rapidly deteriorated two weeks ago and I had to put him to sleep. It was awful, I am extremely sad, and miss him terribly but there is a tiny part of me that is relieved that I won't have to worry about having food and medicine for him if shit gets bad. I would have felt so guilty and awful if I couldn't provide enough for him. I am also glad I never wanted kids so don't have to worry about either thankfully.
True_Guava3247@reddit
Yeah. I have been glad recently that i stopped at one kid, but i wish i had stopped at zero so they did not have to go through this.
JoyfulJukebox@reddit
I did the same actually. I bought a 20 lb bag of cat food last week and plan to buy plenty more in the coming weeks and months that can last up to a year. My cat is not going to go hungry. End of.
Sherris010@reddit (OP)
That is very kind of you. I hope you and your animals are able to stay safe
RBZRBZRBZRBZ@reddit
Well that's one way to accelerate the solar power revolution
Japingu28@reddit
A huge silver lining about the current situation.
No matter what you say about humans, we are an expert at adapting. This is a complete eye opener that we should not be reliant on a single energy source, let alone on a single country.
rorood123@reddit
To a point at least. Until we run out of the ability to manufacture them due to the oil (& components) supply shock.
Dear-Blacksmith7249@reddit
oil shocks are rough for traditional portfolios since you cant hedge in real time. most brokers close at 4pm and weekends are a black hole. if youre trying to actually trade around geopolitical moves, you need something thats open when news breaks.
futures accounts work but margin requirements are steep and learning curve is real. cfds through offshore brokers are an option but counterparty risk is sketchy. markets.xyz lets you trade oil 24/7 including weekends with crypto margin, so when saturday news hits you can actualy react instead of waiting til monday.
-Planet-@reddit
Oh nooo...
Practical_Hippo6289@reddit
This is a well made basic explainer video. Most people in r/collapse are probably already aware of all of this but it would be a great video to share with friends who maybe don't quite get it yet.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Sherris010:
Submitted because it might seem like the war in Iran hasn't had many consequences in the rest of the world while in reality we're likely to see economic destruction at around 20%.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1sdg29r/oil_shock_to_hit_every_country/oeiafcs/