Economic Recession and Furloughs Coming

Posted by Dangerous-Finish-303@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 22 comments

I would like to shine some light on an issue I see playing out. This is purely speculation, and I really hope I am wrong.

I don't want to get political, but unfortunately this is something that is increasingly likely to happen as this war goes on.

Most of us are aware of the situation in the Middle East. What most people are unaware of is the catastrophe that's looming over us as a result.

We saw energy surge when the Russia-Ukraine conflict started. Then we saw it stabilize back down. Most of us are looking at recent history and are thinking equilibrium will eventually emerge. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening.

The GCC nations are responsible for 20-30% of the world's oil supply. Currently these nations are blocked from selling and exporting their oil due to the ongoing conflict. Furthermore, some of the oil and gas infrastructure has already been struck in these nations. Iran has already threatened to strike the remainder of oil in the GCC. Not to mention, the desalination plants that keep these nations functioning.

Why is this so problematic for the US and US airlines, especially since the US is not dependent on oil from this region?

If you do 30 minutes of research on what the US economy is built on, you come to the conclusion of the petrodollar. The linchpin of the petrodollar is the GCC nations. If these nations are currently not selling oil and recycling that money back into US Treasury Bonds, the USD will collapse. In other words, we are going to see a depression, NOT a recession. You thought 2008 was bad? Think again.

Delta has already canceled its LAX-ANC route due to increased fuel costs.

Ryanair's CEO has warned that if this war persists, 1 in 10 flights this summer will be cut due to oil shortages.

J.P. Morgan has published an article stating by the end of April, countries that rely on GCC energy will start to run out.

We are on the verge of economic collapse. Thus, if this war continues for a month and a half, we should not be surprised if furloughs start taking place.

What are some of your guys' thoughts? Again, this is all speculative, and I am not claiming this is going to happen, but thisrationale seems the most logical.