New monthly temperature records on the first day of April sweep the globe, unsustainable consumption levels, massacres in Haiti, growing devastation in Lebanon, and the convergence of the Ukraine & Iran Wars…

Last Week in Collapse: March 29-April 4, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 223rd weekly newsletter. The March 22-28, 2026 edition is available [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1s6s9bo/last_week_in_collapse_march_2228_2026/_ if you missed it last week. The full post was auto-removed by Reddit; cuts were made to get this passed the algorithm. These newsletters are also available (in full, with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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According to Dr. James Hansen, we are now Nino-neutral, meaning there is currently no La Nina or El Nino present. Yet sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes are at record highs for this time of the year, and experts believe the coming El Nino may be super strong; it is expected to begin in the second half of 2026.

Unusual rainstorms dropped about 15cm of rain across parts of the Arabian peninsula, in excess of some annual records. Lots of new March records were set in Russia in the last few days of the month. Flooding in Dagestan displaced several thousand people. Critics and citizens are outraged by the overfishing of British marine protected areas (MPAs) by ships trawling the seabed; some 250,000 tonnes of fish were harvested using bottom-trawlers in these MPAs over a 4-year period.

Permafrost has locked colossal deposits of CO2 and CH4 in the frozen earth. But when this melts, large quantities of these gases enter the atmosphere, increasing global temperatures. A study suggests that melted permafrost is somewhere between 25x and 100x more permeable than unthawed permafrost, indicating that “the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws.” Another study on vegetation in permafrost slumps, published on Monday, suggests that greenery can re-emerge from a sudden permafrost melt/subsidence—but would take 10-100 years: “low-stature vegetation recolonizes barren terrain in low-Arctic sites within a decade, followed by erect shrubs, resulting in greener surface than undisturbed areas. In contrast, vegetation recovery in high-Arctic and high-elevation sites requires over 30 years.” If only it were possible to refreeze permafrost in so short a time—

A place in Mali hit 33.1 °C (91.5 °F) at night, achieving “One of the hottest nights ever recorded worldwide in March.” Saudi Arabia set its all-time hottest March minimum at 29 °C; lower temps in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan still set record minimums for the locations. In part of Australia, freaky weather conditions and iron-rich dust turned the sky blood-red, and then in Crete and Libya; surely this can’t be a good omen.

Scientists discovered three new frog species in Ecuador...and they’re already on the edge of extinction. Each species is local to a section of land about three square miles (7.8 sq km). Earth’s 3-year average temperature anomaly hit 1.53 °C above the baseline.

Climate whiplash and extreme Droughts & flooding are becoming more common across many regions of planet earth. A Water Resources Research study says that “many regions are already experiencing increases in extreme precipitation contributions at rates exceeding model projections” and that many poorer states “are projected to receive a larger fraction of their annual precipitation from extreme events, likely resulting in reduced productivity and economic disruption.” These extreme precipitation events are predicted to deliver an additional 15-20% of rainfall once the planet has achieved 4 °C warming, which worst-case scenarios predict could arrive in the 2060s.

As more than half of the American West is experiencing Drought, some states are already rationing water, monthly ahead of the summer. Ski resorts are closing early, some Colorado businesses have delayed irrigation until April, snowpack is way down, and the Colorado River states still haven’t come to an agreement on how to share their dwindling supply of water.

An ice-marginal lake is a body of fresh water adjacent to a glacier or ice sheet. They generally form at the margins of the ice where the ice borders the land, often sitting against the body of ice. A study of 102 such lakes in Greenland and found that the parts of glaciers resting next to ice-marginal lakes melt about 230% faster than glacier edges (termini) that just abut land.

Arctic sea ice is currently the second lowest on record for April. NASA says that “the ice was also completely melted away in more of the Barents Sea, in addition to areas of thinning spreading northward,” and that “the main driver is large-scale atmospheric circulation, with winds channeling warm, humid air from the North Atlantic straight into the area, accelerating melt. These winds can be influenced by tropical weather thousands of miles away.”

Buenos Aires (metro pop: 16M) recorded its highest April minimum on the first day of the month: 24.1 °C (75 °F). Indonesia reportedly hit a monthly high at 35.2 °C (95 °F), and Samoa felt its hottest night. Ecuador ended March and began April with record monthly highs. A short photo-essay from the Amazon sheds light on the large-scale deforestation & soy operations that have recently intensified. March in the U.S. was supposedly the “most anomalous {temperature} month in US history.” Parts of South Africa also broke monthly records for April. A study on 21 years of decreasing cloud concentrations says that this is increasing earth’s energy imbalance and accelerating heating. Data from 2025 show record-low glacier mass in every region on earth.

Flooding in Afghanistan killed 42+ over a five-day period last week. One man died in Greece from Storm Erminio. A landslide in Equatorial Guinea killed a mother and her six kids. Pakistan’s (pop: 259M) water crisis worsens; the water allocation per capita has fallen by over 85% in the past 70 years. A 7.4 earthquake in Indonesia killed one. The famous cherry blossoms of Kyoto are blooming about 3 weeks earlier than they did, when compared to the pre-industrial period.

President Trump is shutting down a number of offices of the U.S. Forest Service, and is moving the agency away from a region-based model to a “state-based model,” a change that critics say will weaken the agency’s impact. Wildfire preparedness will suffer. But at least the U.S. EPA is moving towards labeling microplastics & drugs as contaminants in public water supplies.

A Nature study published in March tried to calculate the “social cost” of carbon emissions, caused by states, and by energy corporations. It will not shock most readers to hear that the U.S. has done the most damage, when quantified in USD: some $10.2 trillion dollars’ worth. China follows at $8.7T, and then the EU combined at $6.4T. Saudi Aramco edged out Gazprom, each with damages equivalent to over $3T apiece. And did I mention this was just from the 30 years between 1990-2020? We are well and truly cooked.

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An accessible study in Environmental Research Letters “predicts a maximum population of 2.5 billion people that Earth might be able to maintain {under sustainable consumption levels}….The Earth cannot sustain the future human population, or even today’s, without a major overhaul of socio-cultural practices for using land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other resources.” The report claims that, in the 1960s, the global growth rate began slowing, while population continued surging. The lead author predicts a peak of around 12B people occurring around 2070.

A Russian oil tanker arrived in Cuba on Monday, and was not intercepted by American ships as some had feared. Egyptian shops are closing early in an attempt to ration power as the energy crisis worsens. Oil futures rose by almost 60% in March, the highest one-month gain of all-time. Prices are now above $4/gallon in the U.S. and, in the EU, prices are up 70% compared to two months ago. Iran is profiting from the elevated prices by selling to China, since Brent Crude Oil is now $109/barrel. In parts of Africa, petrol prices are adjusted only once a month, and the price spike has stunned local businesses & travelers. The problem is getting so bad that some states are asking Ukraine not to strike Russia’s energy infrastructure, because global energy prices are already sky high. The Marshall Islands (pop: 35,000) declared an economic emergency. India is worrying about a food crisis.

A 384-page report from the World Bank on garbage examined waste practices in 262 cities, and predicted that the annual production of solid waste will rise from 2.6B tonnes in 2022 to roughly 3.9B tonnes in 2050—an increase of 50% in just 28 years. Sub-Saharan Africa’s waste production is expected to increase by 125%, and South Asia by 99%. More than 38% of the global solid waste is food, followed by paper/cardboard products at almost 14%, and plastics at 12.5%. The report includes regional looks at trash production,country-by-country trash productions/projections, and possible scenarios for dealing with waste going forward. There are many graphs and visualizations throughout.

“Rapid population growth, accelerating urbanization, rising incomes, and increased consumption are driving a surge in municipal solid waste generation that is outpacing the capacity of local systems and municipal budgets. As a result, cities and communities worldwide are struggling to keep up with mounting quantities of waste….global waste generation is rising faster than previously projected….Upper-middle-income countries, accounting for 36 percent of the population, produced the largest share of global waste at 42 percent….Plastics constitute approximately 12.5 percent of municipal solid waste globally….The global cost of municipal waste management already exceeds US$250 billion annually and is projected to rise to US$426 billion by 2050….Global waste generation is 0.88 kilogram {1.94 pounds} per capita per day on average….the North America region generates substantially more single-use plastics, approximately 80 percent more than the next highest generator which is the Latin America and Caribbean region….Under the business-as-usual scenario, projected GHG emissions from solid waste management are expected to rise from 1.28 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022 to 1.84 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050—a 43-percent increase…” -excerpts from the report

A report of an earlier study in Nature stating that “nanoplastics comprise the dominant fraction of marine plastic pollution” confirms that “the ocean’s ‘missing’ plastic hasn’t vanished—it has broken down into trillions of invisible nanoplastics now spread through water, air, and living organisms. These tiny particles may be everywhere, including inside our bodies.” Some 27M tons of nanoplastics are estimated to be floating in the North Atlantic. Ocean churn, sunlight exposure, and organism interaction can degrade plastics and create nanoplastics.

Research on air pollution in the United States (pop: ~345M) says that around 100M Americans might be breathing unhealthy air by 2100, if air pollution projections come to pass. The worst pollution is expected in the large NYC-Chicago-Atlanta triangle, and in southern California. “Days when both ozone and PM2.5 exceed alert thresholds quadruple.” Meanwhile, one expert is warning that prediction markets like Polymarket are “more corrosive for public life than even social media,” a high bar indeed. Ordinary (and extraordinary) corruption is common enough already, and when people exercise the power to manifest their large bets unto the world stage, the risks to (inter)national security are magnified.

The American Chemical Society is warning that “biocidal ingredients” (like those found in soaps, cleaning equipment, wipes, some plastics, and even textiles) may be fueling anti-microbial resistance (AMR) more than previously believed. Deaths from AMR are currently around 1M per year, a sum expected to double by 2050.

Live Free, then Die? A homeless man who has active tuberculosis is testing the limits of what the state is willing to do to contain the spread of TB. Eight months have passed already, and the New Hampshire-based man has refused all offers of treatment, and judicial orders to isolate. He has had contact with 650+ people in this time, and at least two of them have tested positive for TB now. Government attorneys have resisted sending the man to jail or prison. TB is the most deadly infectious disease in the world, and is responsible for about 1.25M deaths per year; War is also linked to higher TB cases.

A new COVID variant, BA.3.2, codenamed “Cicada”, is ascendant, at least in theUnited States. The variant is allegedly more contagious among children. A recent study meanwhile concluded that the anxiety/OCD/depression drug fluvoxamine probably helps to reduce the fatigue characteristic of Long COVID.

Some health experts believe Long COVID may be an autoimmune system problem; the body’s immune system may create antibodies that fight healthy tissue. The rogue immune system disrupts the body’s sense of balance, and increases pain. A study on the “disability burden” of Long COVID (“a mass disabling event of significant public health concern”) among U.S. adults estimates that over 3.8M American adults currently have “disabling Long COVID, i.e., reported having Long COVID at the time and experiencing significant limitations to their daily activity attributable to it.” These adults are estimated to skew female, have depression, have anxiety, have another pre-existing disability, and also have a bachelor’s degree.

The expansion of War and other interconnected Collapse factors are inflicting a kind of “globalised trauma” on the anxious masses. A faltering economy, rising energy crises, murder of the biosphere, and a kind of forced hypernormalization by the business-as-usual crowd are not making it easy to find peace on a planet living on borrowed time. What has helped you manage?

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An agreement on small boats crossings between France and the UK appears to be falling apart; a two-month stopgap was introduced in the meantime. The U.S. is reportedly pushing Denmark for more bases in Greenland, only a couple months after seeming to back down from its efforts to somehow wrest control of the landmass.

Advocates are warning that “digital violence” targeting women & girls is growing more common across Africa. Afghanistan claims Pakistan shelled a site near their border, killing one and injuring more. Sectarian violence in central Syria saw dozens of Sunni men ransack and destroy the property of Christians (and shoot numerous firearms; though none died) in an four-hour raid eight days ago.

An hours-long shelling of a site in Sudan, reportedly done by RSF forces and their paramilitaries, killed at least 14. Experts are warning about the endemic nature of sexual violence to the Sudan War; an MSF report on the aspect of the War was released on Tuesday.

Updated figures claim 70+ were slain in an attack in Haiti, far outside Port-Au-Prince, last Sunday. The following day, the gangsters slew dozens more](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/30/americas/haiti-gang-attack-violence-intl-latam) across several locations. Gunmen in Nigeria killed twelve people in a bar shooting; a retaliatory attack killed ten—a two-day curfew was imposed afterwards. The head of Myanmar’s military junta is being installed as President. Burkina Faso’s leader, who seized power in 2022, denounced democracy amid hopes that the country might hold elections later this year: “People need to forget about the issue of democracy. We have to tell the truth: democracy isn’t for us.”

Israel’s defense minister announced their intentions to destroy all the homes near the Lebanon-Israel border. It’s not clear exactly how many are included, but the Gazafication of southern Lebanon is now underway. 600,000+ Lebanese will be ~~permanently~~ displaced until such time as Israel declares northern Israel safe. Could be a long time… Operations against Beirut locations are ongoing as well; you may have seen some of the videos already. Another explosion killed two UN peacekeepers in Lebanon on Monday.

Iran struck a power & desalination plant in Kuwait early in the week, killing one, injuring more, and crippling operations at the site. Approximately 40% of the world’s desalinated water comes from the Gulf countries. Iran also hit a Kuwaiti oil tanker in a Dubai port, but the damage was not severe enough to cause an oil leak. Trump is meanwhile threatening to walk away from the Hormuz crisis and leave his erstwhile allies to deal with the shipping fallout. Maybe Pakistan and China will handle the negotiations to re-open the Strait. A few ships are getting through as it is—the most since the War kicked off now—but only about 10-15% of the pre-War Hormuz traffic.

The Secretary of ~~Defense~~ War intends to “negotiate with bombs” for the time being; ground operations look increasingly likely, but Israeli forces will not be joining them. Trump threatened desertion of NATO and warned that their bombing campaign might take Iran “back to the Stone Age.” The institution that created the 2026 Global Terrorism Index which I shared last week has published an Iran-specific supplement documenting the economic impact of the ongoing War.

A growing number of voices are admitting that the Ukraine War and the Iran War are part of a single conflict, one that has become more intertwined and interrelated than we might wish. But they caution that it is still too geographically limited to qualify as a World War, and there is no single power or state fighting in both theaters of War (yet). But the energy implications stretch beyond the states involved, and Russia and Iran are involved in War materiel exchange, and the U.S. is using some bases in the EU as launchpads for strikes against Iran. President Zelenskyy’s state visits in the Middle East also underline the complex diplomatic network of the connected War.

Russian strikes killed 14 across northeast Ukraine on Saturday. Germany’s armed forces are requiring men aged 17-45 to ask permission before they leave the country, if such travel is expected to exceed three months. An American or Israeli strike hit near Iran’s only nuclear power plant on Saturday; one employee was killed, but radiation levels remain normal.

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Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-Collapse is complex, and someone in r/preppers created a dashboard to track the Iran War and its many consequences—mostly prices of oil, fertilizer, and other such products. The thread doesn’t offer much more than the dashboard link, but it’s good to give credit where it’s deserved.

-Are we on the “Super El Nino Escalator to Hell”? This post from last week seems to suggest so. The post theorizes that we might see a temperature spike (relative to the pre-industrial baseline) of 1.8 °C within the next two years, compared to the 1.53 °C difference (last 3-year average) that we are currently at.

Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, Iran War endgames, Collapse-themed board games, doom diaries, hate mail, rate recipes, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?