Am I being "too cautious"?

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Odd_Entertainment471@reddit

You ever talk to “radio” in flight? If not, next time you fly, even if it’s CAVU, give them a call and talk weather with them. I think you’ll find you have a real friend up there that you didn’t even know. For some reason, CFIs these days teach IPAD flying and leave Radio totally off the syllabus.

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Excellent_Mango6355@reddit

Flying in convective areas isn’t inherently dangerous. The key is to always know where your out is and immediately go there BEFORE you are in trouble.

A key to this is being able to explore and enjoy small airports and towns. Just assume you are going to get stuck for a few hours in the afternoon, enjoy the odd airport loaner car and eat a delicious meal in some small town dive. If you don’t have time to do that, then it is better to drive.

Flying early in the morning also helps avoid the afternoon pop up storms.

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Curious-Owl6098@reddit

Like others have said you’ll have to take some calculated risks on every flight when it comes to weather. Especially if you’re flying in IMC. Biggest things of concern like you mentioned are convective activity and icing. For thunderstorms in a 182 you are quite a bit faster than the storm…. If you can stay mostly visual and have some sort of radar on board. You can fly around it using your eyeballs. This is also where working with ATC is super beneficial.. as far as icing personally I’ve never gotten it at temps above freezing even though some people on here are adamant you can get it upwards of 10c. There’s even been a few times I’ve been in the clouds right at freezing in a piston because the temps aloft forecast was wrong(Midwest living!!) and I haven’t gotten anything. If you want to fly in IMC where I live you’ll never fly in the clouds if you want to 100% eliminate the risk of icing. The key is having multiple backups or outs if something doesn’t go as planned. If you can have 2-3 good backup options then it’s probably worth taking the flight. Now on a day for example it’s low IFR, I cant get above the clouds or below them, there’s no better weather anywhere close, and the temps are pushing it when it comes to ice. I’ll stay on the ground. If it’s maybe a low stratus layer of like 600-700 AGL where I pop out at 3000 and the temps aloft are maybe in the 2-3 degree range? I’ll go fly. Will I get ice? Maybe. But if I do I have multiple outs to get above the weather, find better weather, as well as minimize my time in icing conditions on an approach. It’s all about the big picture

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Jimmyoun@reddit

I am known to be an over cautious instructor. I am very proud of this fact.

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Fine_Fortune844@reddit

Want to go scud running with a brand new private pilot student at 1500-1900msl (900ft is average earth height here). When it’s 43 degrees, full overcast layer, and possible forecast rain? ☔️ (in a non imc certified aircraft)

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Flat-Barracuda1268@reddit

I'm in the same boat. I have a fair amount of time in 172s. I know what the aircraft is capable of. I also cancel plenty of flights for adverse weather conditions. Sometimes it's obvious. The other day we had 25G48 and nobody went up. Other times it's 17G28. It's a judgement call. I'm pretty comfortable landing in a 15 knot crosswind. If it's a gusty 15 knot crosswind the math changes. And it doesn't take much wind direction change to turn into a crosswind that's over my personal minimums (and the airframe's certified rating). Some other things are an absolute no go for me. Lightning in the area. Precip at temps cold enough for icing.

For wind, I do go up and rip the pattern at my minimums occasionally to stay sharp. Last time I had about 5 laps down, with questionable winds (17G28 referenced earlier). The last landing I had max rudder and almost max aeleron into the wind, and it was still blowing me off the centerline. 100' wide runways at my home airport so it was fine but I decided to save it for another day after that.

Never feel like you "need to fly" especially if you're just doing it for fun. Better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than being in the air wishing you were on the ground, and all that.

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RealP4@reddit

Being a wuss is better than being dead. But in all seriousness don’t ever feel pressured to fly.

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Jwylde2@reddit

If there are no convective SIGMETs for the area you will be flying in, you’re probably fine. Retrieving a weather briefing in Foreflight is a must.

Spring and summer flying…avoid midday flight. Go early in the AM (before noon) or late at night.

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vtjohnhurt@reddit

If you always fly in easy conditions, you'll lose proficiency to fly in challenging conditions. Then one day you'll take off in easy conditions, and before you land, conditions will become challenging, and you're screwed.

If you never practice setting aside your 'get-there-itis' en route, turn 180 and give up on reaching your original destination, you may lose the ability to do that soon enough to save your butt.

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just_a_plane_guy@reddit

You are asking a great question. Many of the responses are spot on. You need to gain more experience organically to truly expand you envelope. However what I really think you are asking is how can you expand those personal minimums safely.

A helpful way of reframing this decision you are facing is instead of looking at a flight in terms of "Safe or Unsafe" look at the factors as a list of "risks" or "threats". Every time you identify something about this flight that increases the risk. Instead of thinking "yes/no" think "What can I do to reduce or eliminate this risk".

For example if there is some weather you are concerned about that's a risk. I use the adage "Always leave yourself an out" as my strategy to manage that risk. If you have an escape path (Or multiple escape paths) that's a possible way to go experience some condition that may push the envelope of your personal minimums, yet if you arrive there and find out its no longer somewhere you want to be there's some alternate path with calm winds and blue skies to retreat to safety.

Adopting this strategy can be very helpful to you decision making because frankly you can NEVER truly eliminate all the risks to make a 100% safe flight. The natural world is very good at throwing unexpected curve balls our way. Forecasts are wrong, things break unexpectedly and even the best plans can fall short.

By having this mindset it helps you practice identifying alternatives and building an adaptable flying style to be more proficient with the unexpected variety of threats, while simultaneously giving you a strategic way to expand your capabilities safely.

Hope this helps and fly safe!

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taggingtechnician@reddit

Just finished a great book, The Killing Zone by Paul Craig. He covers the various weather accident statistics very thoroughly, and while I am not good at summarizing, I can say that he offers numerous tips for staying safe throughout the book. I cannot recommend it enough, I got the 2nd edition audio cd to listen while commuting and will start it again next week for the second listen.

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Bunslow@reddit

Find someone you trust who has storm dodging experience and take them with you for several hours. Doing it on your own as a rookie is way riskier than having someone knowledgeable coaching with their experience as to what is and isnt safe

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Full_Wind_1966@reddit

No you are not being too cautious. If you dont feel it, dont go.

That being said, one thing that might allow you to safely go more often and feel more confident when you do is a Sentry. Pair that with forefligjt on an iPad and you can get live weather radar, which will allow you to see how they are progressing in real time and also avoid the worst/unsafe parts of it.

It is 100% a good idea to cancel if you are unsure it is safe. But a Sentry can help make that amount of times as small as possible.

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Commercial_Meat_8522@reddit

You are right to be cautious especially with ifr. Too many low timers get into trouble for various reasons

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poisonandtheremedy@reddit

I always look at the Worse Case Scenario (outside of you know, dying). Unexpected thunderstorm pops up? Okay, you can: (1) do a 180 and go back the way you came (2) land at the closest airport and wait it out (3) go around it (4) go somewhere else.

It is situational. Flying is never rote. Every flight has some parameters you're evaluating.

When I was doing student solos out in the SW desert, I saw convective activity at my destination airport. I did a combo of (1) and (4).

Flying is calculated risk. It will never be 100% Safe, ever.

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Schwalbe262Guy@reddit

Rather be sorry on the ground than find out in the air

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HV_Conditions@reddit

Been there done that! Where I live we get a pretty solid mountain wave.

Took off in a 172 and it was intense. Before the wave it’s very much un fun. In the wave I didn’t think the ole girl had enough power to descend out of it.

Live and learn.

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phliar@reddit

When you fly for yourself, you are the judge. That's why people make a thing about personal minimums.

Reminder: you don't only have to fly with an instructor when the FAA says you must. Take that as a minimum. You can always call your local friendly CFI to discuss the weather, or fly with them when conditions are a bit beyond what you're comfortable with. That is how you develop your decision-making skills.

And of course never forget the old adage, it's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than the other way around.

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AdditionalWx314@reddit

Pilots usually go through 3 phases in their first 1000 or so hours. Phase 1 comes after you get your license and you are appropriately, perhaps a little too, cautious. But you are flying to your comfort level. Only you are responsible for making the call -- never let anyone make you feel bad for making that call. There are still things to learn about flying, the airplane, and yourself. You are not too cautious. Then comes phase 2 where you start to think you have been too cautious so you get over-confident. You fly in some weather you shouldn't. You scare yourself a few times which encourages you to get your instrument rating. Maybe you are little less attentive to your checklist and pre-flight. Assuming you went through phase 1 (and didn't just jump to phase 2 and hurt yourself) in phase 2 you start realizing that you need to get better. So you start getting wiser about your decisions, get your instrument rating, maybe even your commercial. You fly a lot. And as that progresses you move into phase 3, where you are wise about your decisions and fully confident making them, whether it is go or no-go. SO...don't rush phase 1. You'll get to phase 2 soon enough. You are the best judge of our abilities and your adaptabilities. When you get to 1000 hours you will do things that you were told never to do as a 100 hour pilot, because you have learned enough about flying that if something bad happens you have the skills to get you and the airplane out of it. But...that only comes with those hours and that wisdom. Good luck and happy flying!

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equal2infinity@reddit

Being cautious is better than the alternative. Maybe invite some highly experienced pilots along on some cross country IFR flights.

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LearningT0Fly@reddit

Is it possible to be too cautious? Like you said- you’re not doing this for a career you’re doing it as a hobby. So what does it matter?

Now I’d definitely go up by yourself and do laps in the pattern, or a short XC, in conditions slightly outside your comfort zone so you do end up moving your envelope over time and don’t get shocked and panic if you do end up in adverse conditions.

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NecessaryLight2815@reddit

Never feel bad about cancelling a flight that your spidey senses tell you to. Glad you’re being cautious and listening to your gut.

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DifferentLuck4545@reddit

Confidence comes with time and knowledge. Always err on the cautious side if you want to acquire time and knowledge.

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rFlyingTower@reddit

This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:

Hi all - I'm an instrument rated private pilot with about 200 hours. I fly mostly 172s or 182s through a couple flight schools and clubs in my area. Something that I've been starting to wonder more about as I continue on my aviation journey is the go/no go decision. I tend to stay on the very safe side which has been fine for me - I'm not pursuing a career so not chasing 1500 and still fly at least every 1-2 weeks. That being said I've cancelled several day trips because I feel unsure about the weather, typically because I'm worried about getting into a situation with convective weather unexpectedly. I live in the southeast so spring and summer bring a lot of random pop-up storm cells and I have a hard time deciding "this is safe". I will obsess over TAFs, look at every weather chart I have access to, GFAs, etc and more often than not if there is any chance of scattered storms or if it's even spotted green on the radar I decide not to go.

How do you guys make that decision? I'd love to be more confident that I cancelled a day trip for a good reason (or even feel more confident to go on the trip if it's actually safe and I'm just being a worrier). Especially for the trip back several hours out that decision is hard and I end up wondering about my choice the whole day. Any tips or advice I can use to get more proficient at making these decisions?

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