Arctic ice at lowest in marcch ever
Posted by Noeserd@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 52 comments
Posted by Noeserd@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 52 comments
michaltee@reddit
I’m scared guys
03263@reddit
We're tropical apes, we'll survive. At least, if agriculture can shift north in time to provide enough food. Borders complicate that simple idea but there's money in it so I am confident it will happen.
Nature, wildlife, plant diversity... will suffer greatly.
karabeckian@reddit
Mighty hard to raise a crop on melting permafrost and glacial till, money be damned.
03263@reddit
If it's not frozen and has sufficient organic material I don't see why, I live on rocky glacial till and a lot of this land was converted to farmland by early settlers and some remains so today. It was once glaciers and permafrost and is now northern hardwood forest.
And since we can add fertilizer we don't even need to worry about sufficient organic material, just soft enough land and growing season length. It just creates yet more dependence on technology to survive.
springcypripedium@reddit
Yes, thanks for mentioning biodiversity that is suffering right now and will only get worse (i.e. biodiversity is tanking)
A couple things to point out from an excellent (albeit still some hopium) piece about previous extinction event/extremely high co2 levels and survival of species: (my bold)
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-dinosaurs-survived-co2-extremely-high.html
During several periods of Earth's history, organisms have experienced radically higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and hotter average temperatures than today. However, that doesn't mean everything will be fine if we keep heating the planet by burning fossil fuels.
"The problem today is not higher global temperature or carbon dioxide levels alone. The problem is the rate of change," explained Olsen. "Throughout most of the Earth's history, carbon dioxide levels have generally changed very slowly. That gave organisms and their ecosystems sufficient time to adapt to climate change through both evolution and migration."
Climate scientists warn that over the next century, the rate of change will be 10 times faster than any climate pattern that unfolded in the last 65 million years.
At the end of this article, there is (imo) some major hopium as they imply humans “could” survive -----but only through technology. They left out the fact that humans need biodiversity to survive and unless I’m missing it, I’ve not seen anything that proves technology could bring back healthy ecosystems and biodiversity.
Humans (nor apes) have lived with Co2 levels that we have right now---and they are rising.
Read about hypercapnia----https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercapnia
03263@reddit
Any future civilization will definitely be increasingly dependent on technology for survival.
Doubt they will use that technology to support wildlife or biodiversity, and that compounds the issue leading to increased dependence.
I believe the root of the problem is money. Capitalism. The abstraction of human survival into tokens that can be exchanged. This is the outcome of that system, a loss of connection with the realities of what is necessary for survival. A loss of the need to depend on each other for love and support. Those are now commodities.
Proper_Geologist9026@reddit
March was going off. Record surface temps both land and sea. The freakish ice pack collapse in the Rockies, now this artic sea ice record.
What else did we have? Here in Aus one cyclone made landfall three times. I think America had record breaking heatwaves? Hawaii with the big floods. And I think Pakistan India is flooding again as well.
It's going to be a hell of a year.
03263@reddit
I can sense the capitalists drooling over the idea of a year round northwest passage.
yapyoba@reddit
That new crude oil shipping lane is looking pretty good for Canada
ansibleloop@reddit
China can ship through the north now as well
It cuts the delivery time to the UK in half
I'm sure this will end well
_cellophane_@reddit
Ok but think of the quarterly profits. Whatever happens after that is not our problem.
ttystikk@reddit
I think we're on track for a Blue Ocean Event sometime in the next few years.
If the AMOC fails, there might be more ice between Greenland and Europe, but I think it will be way too late to change much.
feo_sucio@reddit
It’s predicted for this fall
Angeleno88@reddit
It is absolutely not by any credible sources. While we should realistically expect to see it occur by 2030, it is unlikely to occur any earlier than 2028 but another aggressive decrease could see it occur in 2027.
Distinguishedflyer@reddit
How is it off the Mark? The ice has never been this low. The ocean is storing heat like a fucking tea kettle at major multiples of the Hiroshima bomb each second. It seems completely feasible this fall.
ttystikk@reddit
It means global warming will catch another gear.
322241837@reddit
BOE 2030?
Distinguishedflyer@reddit
earlier.
ttystikk@reddit
Sooner than expected...
thelingererer@reddit
A blue ocean event would end up releasing massive amounts of methane from the ocean floor.
ttystikk@reddit
And the melting of permafrost on land. Both are already underway .
thelingererer@reddit
I think they call it the Clathrate bomb.
ttystikk@reddit
Yes! That's exactly what it was called. They swept this under the rug but it's clearly not staying there!
WildFlemima@reddit
So much shit is going to go extinct the next 5 years
ttystikk@reddit
We are losing the most important repository of information we have; biodiversity. It's the very definition of irreplaceable.
niardnom@reddit
Chance of an exceptionally low minimum is very high this year. We could get as low as 2 million km^2 this Summer, which is getting really close to the <1 million km^2 of ice threshold for a BOE. If this El Niño keeps up, it's possible next year.
PatrolMan2129@reddit
Usually when there is a record low, there is a rebound the next year, a "return to the mean" effect. Not as high as it once was though.
florite_king@reddit
Source?
PatrolMan2129@reddit
You just need to look at sea ice extent or areas in the years following a record low. This is a known phenomenon in many areas of science.
I can't recall a record low in two years in a row since 1979. 2007 took till 2012 for new record. We still haven't a new record since 2012.
* https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5395/
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
ttystikk@reddit
While true, we also haven't seen a big El Ninõ in quite some time. It's going to be an interesting summer.
adamsoutofideas@reddit
Where do I go to bet on this year being the BOE year and make the most profit? Is there a more conservative bidding community?
This knowledge and awareness has to be good for something
ansibleloop@reddit
Ha, I've morbidly been wondering the same
There's nothing I can do to stop this so can I at least profit off of ignorance and use that money to buy a small bit of security
jbond23@reddit
Try this for some reasoned analysis. https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.2850.html#msg438082 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.0.html
As of 2018, the ice community thought 2018-2040. A big peak in bets at <2025. It didn't happen.
Angeleno88@reddit
We are close but not there yet. I’d bet on 2028 being the first realistic chance of it.
jbond23@reddit
Cue the /r/collapse obsession with BOE in 3...2...1...
Fnordus235@reddit
And that's just the sea surface covered in ice. The real problem is the thickness/volume (or better, the lack thereof).
https://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/
jbond23@reddit
Shame PIOMAS is broken because NOAA turned off their thickness data.
jbond23@reddit
Today (5-Apr-26) it Jaxa Arctic Extent is 3rd lowest in the records as we head towards the pinch point in May-June when all the years in the records converge.
NihiloZero@reddit
If it's true that there is going to be a blue ocean event this summer... this could be the real deal. That is to say... all she wrote. Which is to say -- the true start of collapse proper.
Consider the oceanic trophic cycle... it's all about that ice. Of course it is! That ice has been pretty damned consistent until, checks watch, this summer. Not saying that this is the absolute beginning of the end -- but an ice-free arctic seems like a pretty bad omen to me. Pretty, pretty bad.
johannesfranco13@reddit
No surprise considering the record warm march we've had here in northern Europe.
Portalrules123@reddit
It’s especially noticeable just how much less ice there is on the east coast of Canada and how much earlier the ice that is there melts, speaking as a Canadian. You can see on the map that most of the Gulf of St. Lawrence has historically been filled with ice in March but that’s no longer the case. Good for shipping, bad for climate and the environment.
MidgetPanda3031@reddit
Dude I moved to Newfoundland 7 years ago, saw a ton of icebergs in the first spring. Not a single one since then. Its scary af to see play out in plain view
Konradleijon@reddit
Fudge
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
So far.
Konradleijon@reddit
Fudge what will the effects of a blue ocean event
Portalrules123@reddit
Extremely accelerated heating of the underlying Arctic Ocean in yet another positive feedback loop, basically. It takes much less heat to warm up water than to melt ice so it’ll be much less likely for ice to reform once we hit BOE.
daviddjg0033@reddit
melting ice takes about 334 J, heating water from 0 to about 80C takes about 335J per unit of ice. Unfathomable amounts of energy. I hate using Hiros of energy now imagine saying Holos of dead from Holodimor. Its Dino-killers
metalreflectslime@reddit
A BOE is coming.
ThreeColorCat89@reddit
I can't even imagine how's it going to be next year with el niño.
Key_Pace_2496@reddit
*Super el niño
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Noeserd:
Statement
(We are cooked this summer-autmn with el niño coming)
Arctic sea ice at record low for late March 2026
Arctic sea ice normally reaches its annual maximum in March after expanding through winter, before retreating as temperatures rise in spring. This seasonal cycle plays an important role in Arctic ecosystems and global ocean dynamics.
Recent observations show a clear departure from historical conditions.
According to data from EUMETSAT OSI SAF, Arctic sea ice extent between 15 and 28 March 2026 remained at the lowest levels ever recorded for this time of year, well below the climatological average.
This visualisation, based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and OSI SAF, shows daily Arctic sea ice extent since 1980 and the sea ice concentration on 28 March 2026. The red line highlights the unusually low extent observed in the second half of March.
Copernicus data support the continuous monitoring of sea ice and help inform climate research, maritime navigation, and environmental management in polar regions.
https://www.copernicus.eu/en/media/image-day-gallery/arctic-sea-ice-record-low-march-2026
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1schh0i/arctic_ice_at_lowest_in_marcch_ever/oeawt8r/
Noeserd@reddit (OP)
Statement
(We are cooked this summer-autmn with el niño coming)
Arctic sea ice at record low for late March 2026
Arctic sea ice normally reaches its annual maximum in March after expanding through winter, before retreating as temperatures rise in spring. This seasonal cycle plays an important role in Arctic ecosystems and global ocean dynamics.
Recent observations show a clear departure from historical conditions.
According to data from EUMETSAT OSI SAF, Arctic sea ice extent between 15 and 28 March 2026 remained at the lowest levels ever recorded for this time of year, well below the climatological average.
This visualisation, based on data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and OSI SAF, shows daily Arctic sea ice extent since 1980 and the sea ice concentration on 28 March 2026. The red line highlights the unusually low extent observed in the second half of March.
Copernicus data support the continuous monitoring of sea ice and help inform climate research, maritime navigation, and environmental management in polar regions.
https://www.copernicus.eu/en/media/image-day-gallery/arctic-sea-ice-record-low-march-2026