Japanese, French and Omani vessels cross Strait of Hormuz
Posted by BendicantMias@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 87 comments
Three Omani-operated tankers, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since Thursday, shipping data showed, reflecting Iran's policy to allow passage for vessels it deems friendly.
Lower_Cockroach2432@reddit
Say what you want about the Iranians, but they understand their geopolitical situation and their intended long-term goal (severing the US from its allies) very well.
I don't really know what the US can really do about this. Do they complain about these countries tacitly bending the knee, and risk alienating them further? Do they keep silent and lose even more geopolitical face?
Corben11@reddit
Yup trump is a fuck up and hes fucked america up. No good situation at all anymore.
While hes saying he'll commit war crimes and cause mass death of civilians. The same people he said america is doing this for.
Illustrious-Run3591@reddit
Trump has not changed my opinion on the US one bit. It's always been like this
Roy_Atticus_Lee@reddit
The notable difference with Trump is that he represents the vulgurness of "Americanism" unashamedly, unlike past leadership who gave it a "humanitarian" and "Wilsonian" shine. For instance, just one year after the Nuremburg Trials, America helped facilitate a genocide on the Island of Jeju in the Korean Peninsula that killed 10-20% of the island's population. To indict Nazis for the crime of genocide, while facilitating it yourself a little while later is a pretty good encapsulation of what American Imperialism is and has always been since the days of Manifest Destiny.
Illustrious-Run3591@reddit
Yup, the "Ugly American" is back in vogue.
Chipay@reddit
Trump is a symptom, not the disease, as they say.
Lower_Cockroach2432@reddit
It's a bit weird to me, because action against Iran has *always* taken a moral framing, which fundamentally makes sense to me because your average person isn't likely to be so invested in their country that they'd consent to major actions based purely on geopolitical whims.
But then when we lose this framing we end up with these increasingly unsettling and contradictory narratives. Iran is evil because they do things, we do the same things but it's not the same because we need to do it because we're fighting evil.
I think this is the reason that the narrative pushed by the US and Israel leans so heavily on the protestors angle. It's about the only thing that isn't somewhat hypocritical, that the IR doesn't have the mandate of the people and so it's a moral good to replace them with a system that does. This justification has its own holes (i.e if you're staking this entirely on popular support, why would you attack civilian infrastructure at all), but those holes are less surface level obvious.
imunfair@reddit
Biden ripped up that fig leaf by running simultaneous support of Ukraine and Israel, it was one of the biggest geopolitical blows to the US in the last century. As you say, we've always used this moral narrative to cover our geopolitical interventions, and that excuse is gone now, although Trump doesn't seem to care much since he's just openly threatening everyone - ally or not - and invading countries with impunity.
howmanyMFtimes@reddit
Twice. It really sucks. I’ve never voted for a republican in my life. I tried to tell everyone how much of a vile POS he is. We deserve this. Unfortunately, all of his supporters are so insulated by billionaire propaganda that they won’t learn their lesson even with the economy crashing and our allies abandoning us. Hateful, stupid, pathetic people.
serioussham@reddit
How is it bending the knee? If anything, it's standing up to Trump
beefprime@reddit
He means bending the knee to the Iranians, I think.
serioussham@reddit
That's also what I understood, and it makes 0 sense.
TheRadBaron@reddit
That would also make no sense, it's the product of a mindset that can't think outside the bounds of the USA.
There's nothing subservient or submissive about passing your ship through a strait.
beefprime@reddit
It makes sense in the context of the geopolitical realities up until now, but you can take that up with OP if you are interested
XimbalaHu3@reddit
As Iran has not ratified to the UNCLOS, and it's their national policy that the strait is of iranian sovereignity, it's a headache for every internationalist out there.
That being said, given that the U.N. security counsil has made abundantly clear that countries not signatarie to U.N. charters and treaties can ignore them as much as they like, Iran is arguably in it's right to charge passage for ships going through it's, claimed, national waters.
So it's less about bending the knee and more about respecting the sovereignity of countries in this new world order based on arms, as opposed to laws, the POTUS has been hell bent on accelerating.
beefprime@reddit
I'm just interpreting the OP when I said bend the knee to the Iranians, I don't really care about the nationalist vs. internationalist views on this, so if you want to discuss it you should reply to them.
recreationalgluttony@reddit
War crimes.
Either the U.S. or Israel will commit war crimes because they can't win this war conventionally.
Most likely, America will pull out, and Israel will bomb oil/ civilian/desalination infrastructure to escalate.
Magjee@reddit
They already have
Lower_Cockroach2432@reddit
I don't know how war crimes give them a meaningful edge here. The only thing I could even think would significantly help them would be a WMD.
recreationalgluttony@reddit
Oh, I mean not to help them "win the war.".
Like Trump is doing now, bombing a civilian bridge just to make life harder for Iran because he's a petty bitch.
Blue-Thunder@reddit
Trump has already stated that if no one helps him, the USA will leave NATO. Never mind that he has threatened to annex NATO allies and in the process alienated the USA's best trading partners with his shit.
The end game will be the 0.1% in the USA will become far more wealthy, and MAGA will continue to suck their cock while they claim the pedophile demoncrats (yes they call them that) are the ones who are responsible for how expensive everything has become.
The rest of the world needs to go forward and turn it's back on the USA. Canada called out the Americans during Trump's first term and not a single fucking country on the planet wanted to rock the boat and come forward and help us. Well world, you got what you fucking deserved by bending the knee to Trump during his first term in office.
joecitizen79@reddit
I mean, whats going to do? Condemn countries that get the resources they need? Maybe threaten the strait themselves?
Lower_Cockroach2432@reddit
That's the conundrum. The only way the US can win now is by decisively opening the strait through military force. That is, invading and holding a significant portion of southern Iran.
Anything else that they might do is a geopolitical loss at this stage.
imunfair@reddit
The other (still crazy but slightly more feasible) option for a "win" would be to mount a smash and grab assault on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, if we know where it is. Supposedly 1000lbs of highly enriched uranium is their total stash, so if we could grab that we could spin setting their nuclear program back by decades as a win even if they don't formally agree to stop enriching.
Trump is correct that the US doesn't need the strait - obviously it's a bit of egg on our face giving Iran more control over it, but if we had a "bigger" win like the uranium we could probably sweep the strait under the rug and mostly return to business as usual, like we've done with past losses.
why_i_bother@reddit
Insane.
Iran has been weeks away from developing nuclear weapons for decades, and you want to set their nuclear weapons program back by decades?
Don't you realize that just means they'll get their nuclear weapons in weeks?
imunfair@reddit
I take it you don't remember stuxnet and how long it actually took them to correctly enrich even a tiny bit of uranium. Granted they could probably do it faster without that obstacle, but google says to get 1lb at 90% you'd need 20 days and thousands of centrifuges. So yeah 1000lbs is gonna take em a bit even if they know what they're doing now.
usefulidiotsavant@reddit
1000lb of HEU is less than a cubic feet in volume (of course, no more than 100lb in one place since you will assemble a critical mass). If stored as crystalized hexafluoride, it's about 3 cubic feet. With the additional containers and shielding, we're talking about a small unmarked van - probably a handful of them.
Good luck finding those vans in a country of 100milion people twice the size of Texas.
imunfair@reddit
Yeah, based on what Trump says they still think it's in the facility they bombed 8 months ago, but that seems unlikely to me too.
joecitizen79@reddit
None of this would have happened if the trumps US hadn't pulled out of the nuclear agreement Iran had been abiding by.
ChillAhriman@reddit
Which simply isn't viable. Iran is a 80M people country with very difficult geography, its ruling classes are heavily ideologically aligned against the US, and even if a significant percentage of its civilians didn't like the regime 2 months ago, the tips are going to severely balance in their support after the most recent rounds of aggression. Even if the US takes control of south-western Iran and the population centers next to Hormuz, which would be the most feasible short-term goal, they would immediately get sieged from positions that are simply not possible to take unless you just nuke the rest of the country.
For whoever is leading the US right now, this is the best possible moment in their lives to take a look at the sunk cost fallacy. Accepting a defeat now means a victory in the face of all possible futures.
Provodniik@reddit
Yeah, Iran playing this out extremely well.
U.S., however, alienated allies even before that. With statements about Greenland among other things, I don’t really see how that can be softened, EVEN if dems win.
Kaymish_@reddit
There's no meaningful difference between the Dems and the GOP. Just look at how Chuck Schumer and Ro Kanna iirc shut down the use of force debate as soon as it looked like they had enough votes to win it. The Dems want this war just as much as trump and the GOP, but they also know it is unpopular and damaging so they use it to attack trump, but not enough to actually stop it.
Moikanyoloko@reddit
Yeah, the Dems criticize Trump more on how he conducts the war, but we don't really see a lot of Dem media calling the war itself morally wrong or even calling for a long term peace agreement with Iran. War is the one thing the American political class is very consistent on.
BendicantMias@reddit (OP)
Well what Trump seems to be trying to do is to get countries to buy more US fuel supplies. He was touting American gas in his speech, so he's clearly hoping the US will profit off of this crisis.
redux44@reddit
Before the US unilaterally decided to launch an obvious aggressive war against Iran, they launched broad economic sanctions. Sanctions not involving the US, but any country that wanted to trade with Iran.
Basically if you trade with Iran you will be cut off from the major global financial systems that the US has control over.
Every country (except China) picked the US. In return Iran's economy suffered.
Now that its a war of survival for Iran, it is telling these countries if they want ships from the strait they need to ignore US sanctions.
Its not longer such an easy choice for countries, and a countries like Japan and I dia, which used to buy a lot oil from Iran before sanctions, are making deals.
If this situation persists it will be a major decline for US global influence. A strategic defeat Im not sure there is a parallel to in recent US history.
Even in Vietnam, the fallout was largely contained just to Vietnam.
Amadon29@reddit
Many countries sanctioned Iran and not just the US. It wasn't seen as choosing between the US and Iran but rather wanting to sanction Iran for a variety of reasons. Same with sanctions on North Korea. People aren't really choosing between the US and North Korea. Most countries wanted to sanction them or just not do business with them.
The US temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil last month. Nobody is violating US sanctions if they buy Iranian oil now. Them buying oil from Iran is only temporary because they can't import from other countries in that area. I don't expect these other Gulf countries to never be able to export oil through the strait again so I don't see this as a permanent shift to Iran.
Japan didn't import that much oil from Iran before the sanctions. They've gradually decreased their direct imports of Iranian oil over the past 30 years. In the 90s, they were importing around 300k barrels of oil every day from Iran. In 2019 before the oil sanctions went into effect, Japan was only importing 20k barrels per day from Iran. That's really not a dependence on Iranian oil. They had switched to other countries in the middle east.
BendicantMias@reddit (OP)
Plenty of countries wanted to do business with Iran. India even had a major trade corridor planned involving them, which the US sanctions got in the way of. India wasn't happy having to sacrifice its ambitions cos of US hegemony.
Amadon29@reddit
What? My comment said many countries wanted to sanction Iran not most. It said most countries wanted to sanction North Korea.
Amadon29@reddit
I never said a lot of countries didn't want to do business with Iran. I said that the US wasn't the only country that wanted to put sanctions on Iran. France, Germany, and the UK pushed for sanctions too.
Yeah for now. The future of the strait isn't clear
BendicantMias@reddit (OP)
You said "most countries", and compared them to North Korea. Don't backtrack now. You did the western thing again, treating your western alliance as the 'world' and trying to suggest that Iran was some sort of global pariah just cos you guys didn't like them. Now you're trying to walk that back. No, the point stands - Iran was not a pariah. You did that.
redux44@reddit
This reads like its only looking at US policy in the last two years. US sanctions policy to deprive it of exports go back much longer.
When Trump cancelled the JCPOA agreement, the US quite literally said either US or Iran.
"US rejects EU plea for sanctions exemption"
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44842723
Nobody knows anything about what happens permanently or long term. US might cause an entire blow up of the infrastructure resulting in a loss of oil exports that will last years soon. Who knows
Japan used to import 500k to 600k bpd before the first US sanctions in 2012. The US sanctions caused a major drop until they were lifted in 2015. They rebounded again afterwards.
https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/iran-oil-imports-jump-471-per-cent-year-to-year-to-more-than-4-year-high-1.1870462
"Japan’s trade ministry on Friday released official data showing its imports almost tripled from a year earlier to 275,000 bpd last month."
Than even more drastic US sanctions came into effect where imports dropped to near zero.
The Iranian position is not that Gulf Arab nations cannot export. Its more about buyer countries such as India or Japan that used to buy Iranian oil before chosing to either follow US sanctions (assuming the waiver is removed) and get no access to the strait or ignore.
Again, I dont know how this will end, but its part of what's happening now.
BendicantMias@reddit (OP)
Plenty of countries wanted to do business with Iran. India even had a major trade corridor planned involving them, a rival to China's Belt and Road, which the US sanctions got in the way of. India wasn't happy having to sacrifice its ambitions cos of US hegemony. Iran was not isolated before the sanctions.
And payments to Iran to pass through the Strait are in Yuan btw, that undermines the dollars' hegemony. The Gulf states aren't going to be feeling too positive about their relationship with the US and petrodollar either now.
Aldequilae@reddit
If Iran manages to keep this newfound sovereignty over the strait after this war, it will be a massive victory for them, and a humiliating loss for the US on the scale of the UK's Suez Canal crisis
Ok_Relation7695@reddit
Newfound?? Are you lot from earth?
Aldequilae@reddit
Iran did not actually enforce its sovereignty over the strait in any way that affected trade despite claiming to own it before this war
TrueRignak@reddit
Vessels full of barley, without doubt. To Trump and his self-created shipment crisis.
That being said, even if some ships are able to pass the strait, the prices will still be increasing as long as the US and Israel continue their war. Best move was to not start it, but second best is to swallow their pride and give up before Russia profit too much from the oil prices spike.
ImpossibleToe2719@reddit
So, in your opinion, the main problem with this situation is that Russia will receive too much money?
TrueRignak@reddit
More precisely, the problem is that after being denied Greenland in a diplomatic crisis that culminated with the deployment of European troops to deter a US attack, Trump caused an oil crisis that harms the European economy and simultaneously gave fresh air to Russia, all while calling for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and actually lifting some against Belarus.
That is the main problem. From an european point of view at least.
Vassago81@reddit
Not, you know, the thousands of civilian dying, hundreds of billion in bombed infrastructure, invasion followed by annexation of 1/4 of Lebanon? No, the bad thing about this is russia ?
RollyPollyZA@reddit
Reminds me of a quote from an Indian minister a while back.
"Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems."
HamunaHamunaHamuna@reddit
Well, it is an European. talking from the point of view of an European. regarding what is one of the main problems for Europe.
Since when does the rest of the world always take a holistic attitude to world problems? Or more like "when, at any point, is anyone but Europe even asked to do so"?
TrueRignak@reddit
Ok Don Quixote, I prefer to stop you there before you go charging againt wind mills. If the question is wether Israel is a shitty state run by genocidial maniacs, the answer is obviously yes.
But that's not the question that was asking the previous redditor.
Neurobeak@reddit
Czart@reddit
Yea, giving more money to muscovites to keep doing these things is in fact bad.
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
It's amazing how people still have to learn about Hanlon's razor. All the while Trump is the prime candidate for that.
why_i_bother@reddit
Nah, it's the general aggressive fascists profiting from war that's the main problem.
Which includes USA, Russia and Israel.
serioussham@reddit
He didnt say it was the main problem. It's a problem.
usefulidiotsavant@reddit
For Ukraine and other countries actively being stomped by Russian boots, it is the main problem. They have weak links to middle east, but a doubling-trebling of Russian income from oil, while the sanctions are lifted, means just more fuel for their enemy.
Not to mention, while the eyes of the planet are fixed on Iran, Putin's asset in the White House can also quietly stop all involvement and aid to Ukraine without being publicly mocked as a Russian asset. "Oh, what do you know, Ukraine fell, it's only the fault of Zelensky, I told him to negotiate! Not a very smart person, not at all..."
S-Tier_Commenter@reddit
Definitely a significant one.
Illustrious-Run3591@reddit
A problem for who exactly? At this stage, being a Chinese-trading-partner country, I'm glad we aren't that close to Europe or the US.
Zlimness@reddit
As far as Europeans are concerned, this is one of the main reasons to get this resolved, yes.
Maybe_this_time_fr@reddit
Well, assuming OP's French, the Russian benefiting from this war wouldn't be ideal for Western Europe.
sight_ful@reddit
That was probably the goal. How else was Trump going to justify easing sanctions on Russia?
BendicantMias@reddit (OP)
Never mind Russia. Trump was promoting US fuel supplies in his speech. He's absolutely shilling for his oil industry friends.
saracenraider@reddit
Which is basically just theft from ordinary people to the billionaire oil barons given the USA produces 22mbpd versus 20mbpd consumed
iksbob@reddit
Buh, buh... The global market! Won't someone think of the oil companies?
_cellophane_@reddit
They need their fifth yacht and their own private island, for reasons.
Magjee@reddit
...Epstein reasons?
bassman9999@reddit
Welcome to Trumps policies. Money for his buddies/people bribing him and the shaft for everyone else.
ctnoxin@reddit
To be fair, they did bribe him with $1 billion dollars for his re-election campaign, so they have to get a return on investment
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4961820-oil-bigwigs-open-wallets-for-trump-after-billion-dollar-request/
Zank_Frappa@reddit
Every time I think I've seen the dumbest take imaginable on this website someone someone posts one even dumber
sight_ful@reddit
If you think this is really about nuclear weapons, you are just ignoring basically most of the last 20 years of evidence lol.
IsNotPolitburo@reddit
Netanyahu has been calling on America to immediately invade Iran to prevent them getting nukes any day now since before many of the soldiers being sent to die for him were born.
Trump was just the first president stupid, or compromised, enough to fall in line and do it.
mschuster91@reddit
Russia can't profit a dime from it. Ukraine has been busy blasting Russia's oil terminals to pieces, over 40% of the export infrastructure is currently out of order, and it's only going to get worse.
And on top of that, Europe is getting ready to combat the shadow fleet by seizing or just being generally annoying to its ships.
TrueRignak@reddit
As you said, only 40% of their export infrastructure is currently out of order, and we can really thanks the Ukrainian for mitigating the impact of the oil crisis. However, that's doesn't mean that "Russia can't profit a dime from it", only that their profit are reduced.
mschuster91@reddit
The losses from the destroyed export infrastructure far, far surpass the gains from the current price shock.
In addition, the price cap sanctions are still in place AFAIK.
TrueRignak@reddit
But these losses would have happened regardless of the price shock, so I don't understand your point.
They are also still being avoided.
throwaway9gk0k4k569@reddit
USA: "Open the Strait of Hormuz!"
IRAN: [Open's the Straight of Hormuz]
USA: "CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ!!!"
You know it's exactly what is going to happen. The US is going to start restricting entry of vessels "for their own protection" or some nonsense.
ToranjaNuclear@reddit
Its hilarious to see Americans mad at France like they are traitors for having made a deal with Iran to have their ships pass the strait.
America is so used to fighting long distances conflicts and weak opponents (at least since the Vietnam war) that they can't even fathom that their actions might have consequences. They are like entitled kids who always have their way. A little generational trauma would do a lot of good for them.
bradicality@reddit
Western realpolitik enjoyers when it's turned on them:
ChillAhriman@reddit
Nothing new for the USA. They started calling french fries "freedom fries" when France refused to follow Bush into the 2003 invasion of Iraq. They believe European countries are their vassals, and they've believed it for well longer than 20 years, not just since Trump.
RevengeWalrus@reddit
The thing that strikes me about this crisis is that whenever American oligarchs shit the bed, they're usually able to weasel their way out of the consequences and leave someone else holding the bag. This is one of the few times they really, really can't do that. It's their money, the enemy is pissed at them, the only way to opt out is by cutting them off. It's oil, the thing they repeatedly refused to divest from. They have to swallow their pride and take the consequences to end it, something that is unfathomable.
Those deranged billionaire group chats must be going insane. The silicon valley freaks are probably pitching some Wile E Coyote contraptions to get around the straight. They're all asking ChatGPT if they can solve this with nukes or a land invasion and are getting angrier each time it says no.
I don't know how this ends, but at least they're in hell right now.
usefulidiotsavant@reddit
What exactly are you talking about? The US oil industry is laughing all the way to the bank, it's perhaps the largest and most obscene financial transfer from the US public to the industry, to the tune of $200-300 bilion annualized, ie the oil industry is making A BILLION IN PROFITS EVERY DAY the war continues, except weekends.
They refuse to divest from oil because it's fucking profitable, and it hasn't been so profitabile in two fucking decades. It's the gusher age all over again baby
Chipay@reddit
It's wild how much soft power Iran holds compared to the US in this conflict, especially considering Iran has damn near pissed off every GCC country with their missiles.
Year-long insults, threats, tariffs and withdrawals of aid by Trump have come to roost.
beefprime@reddit
Its not soft power if the power is obtained at gunpoint, Iran is controlling the straight through military force, that's where their leverage comes from, its not soft power.
Chipay@reddit
Disagree, Iran isn't firing missiles at Japan and France to force them to distance themselves from the US. Iran 'rewarding' nations that aren't actively hostile to its regime is a form of soft power projection.
beefprime@reddit
Brother, they are absolutely prepared to fire missiles at French and Japanese shipping if they try to run the straight without coming to some accommodation. What are you guys smoking? Its a military blockade, if you run it they aren't going to politely ask you to stop.