Scientists warn that the Gulf Stream is shifting north, which means an ocean current collapse is imminent
Posted by metalreflectslime@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 140 comments
pumukl@reddit
Any day now!
HelloSummer99@reddit
Anecdotal evidence, but the Canary Islands (which benefit greatly from the gulf stream, having a year-round "eternal spring" and having one of the best climate on the planet, had a terrible winter this year. Almost non-stop cold wind and rain, very uncharacteristic for the area.
goddamn2fa@reddit
The word 'imminent' is being thrown around a lot these days.
StIdes-and-a-swisher@reddit
If Time if infinite then I guess everything is imminent.
taybay462@reddit
From the article
25 years is "imminent" unless youre 80.
Expensive_Chart_8158@reddit
So basically anyone in power which is why were fucked
StIdes-and-a-swisher@reddit
Well Biden did make a bipartisan agreement for a largest green energy investment our country has ever seen. But we’re so fucking dumb we elected Trump and he destroyed it.
So fuck it. Doesn’t matter how hard we work. Some rich dude with his own interest is going to fuck it all up.
Skeptik1964@reddit
The problem with “green” energy is it isn’t green, it just shifts the carbon and environmental damage elsewhere. It also (solar and wind) only produces meaningful amounts of energy in a narrow equatorial band, and even in those specific areas can’t produce enough energy to power a meaningful economy. I’m all for finding alternatives to fossil fuels, but the only realistic current or near future technologies are fission and fusion, and most people lose their ever lovin minds at the mere mention of them.
ChipsAndLime@reddit
Sweet baby Jesus, who is telling you this?
Sustainable energy massively reduces pollution in the environment compared to burning toxic sludge for energy.
Not a meaningful amount outside the equator? In 2024, 59,0% (254,9 TWh of 431,7 TWh) of the electricity produced in Germany came from renewable energy.
Sentence taken from Wikipedia but one source can be found here:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-renewables?tab=chart&country=~DEU
Please let’s be real.
Sustainable energy is sustainable compared to the toxic crap. Yes, nothing is perfect. But massively better is still massively better.
And we can power much of the world with sustainable energy even with today’s technology and infrastructure limitations.
SaltonPrepper@reddit
Not only that but people who actually show up to vote, or mail in their vote, tend to skew older. So in order to kick out the senile administration, you need to win over the senile electorate. Given the mental slowdowns I've seen among seniors in my own family, I wouldn't mind if we took away the right to vote after a certain age unless the voter can pass an aptitude test.
StIdes-and-a-swisher@reddit
Looks like the boomers did take it with them.
Abdulmejid_Hamilton@reddit
The frontier weather models can barely predict a snow storm accurately more than 3 days out. What am I supposed to do with a +25 year forecast.
lordaddament@reddit
Yeah 25 years is nothing especially when you consider we’ll probably still spend the next 23 years doing nothing and then will scramble for the last 2
usmcnick0311Sgt@reddit
If only someone had seen this coming! And maybe some climate warning back at the turn of the century!? C'mon! Where were all the adults? I would've voted for someone who would focus on our existential existence instead of kleptocracy and promoting ignorance in our youth
swish465@reddit
25 years is not a lot when you are accelerating an exponential curve.
Shimmermist@reddit
There's some context missing. Basically there are simulations they did to figure out if there were any signs the AMOC may collapse, things to watch for. They found that the gulf stream would slowly move north, then do a sudden jump. We see the slow move to the north, but the sudden jump over 2 years hasn't happened yet. From the article, it says
So there's certainly a signal of problems. We know there are many. If the simulation is correct on the timing, it hasn't made the extremely fast jump yet. I want to read up on how much it usually varies and how long it has been drifting in that direction. Basically, I want to better understand the whole thing. Is that 50km shift the gradual change it is describing, or is it already shifting a lot faster than it should?
moni_bk@reddit
I don't think people understand "exponential". This was supposed to be 100 years away. Now it's 25. I would guess it's either happening now or within the next five years.
P1R0H@reddit
I think you didn't understand the article neither the comment you've replied to.
svaldbardseedvault@reddit
This is the comment needed for people whom aren’t actually reading the article.
outofshell@reddit
Time estimates for climate-related problems always seem to be followed by several “faster than expected” updates so maybe 25 years does mean imminent lol
StIdes-and-a-swisher@reddit
I’m not 80 and I take science serious. At this point other than cracking jokes I don’t know what else to do.
mortalitylost@reddit
Vote
Lots of people will talk all day about how fucked things are then not do the one thing they're allowed to do to make a change.
If you're in the US make sure you're registered to vote and vote.
capitan_dipshit@reddit
crying is always an option
NoTerm3078@reddit
Stop crying and lift bro, people need you.
celaritas@reddit
This 👆. Cry .....and then act.
capitan_dipshit@reddit
crying can be healthy
Chogo82@reddit
Been imminent for the past 10 years
BongoHunter@reddit
The UK has a very mild climate considering it's latitude - I take it that goes away and we get more of a Nordic country type climate if this collapse happens?
Squoooge@reddit
Oh we are fucked when it collapses. Not much of our housing stock can handle -10c let alone -20c or lower. I'd have to not use half the house just to keep it warm enough for the pipes at those temps. (100 year old prefab with as much insulation as the thin walls can take)
freeman_joe@reddit
Even tent can handle -10C-20C. Climate change needs to be solved but short term people will adapt. In US people have enough money to insulate buildings.
RaveNdN@reddit
What people in the US? Very few have the money to drop $20k on a whim to insulate a house properly.
UsernamesSuck33@reddit
Seriously, most Americans live paycheck to paycheck.
freeman_joe@reddit
So Americans don’t have money for basic insulation? But poor countries will have money for water food and housing? I think in US you will manage.
UsernamesSuck33@reddit
That’s right the majority of Americans also struggle with putting food on the table and paying all their bills, or even keeping a roof over their heads. That’s what living paycheck to paycheck means. I don’t know why you think all Americans are wealthy, but we aren’t. Will other people struggle more, sure, though it depends where they are. The whole world is going to struggle as these climate issues accelerate. This isn’t the struggle Olympics, it isn’t a competition.
freeman_joe@reddit
I am not saying it is competition but if 90% of US citizens manage and 10% not it is still better outcome to countries where 90% won’t manage and 10% can. In US if only few people share it will work. In poor countries there is zero chance surviving… mass starvation is on table for them.
UsernamesSuck33@reddit
Sounds to me like you don’t understand how interconnected the world‘s food systems are. Also sounds to me like you don’t know just how many Americans are actually living in poverty or are very close to being homeless.
freeman_joe@reddit
There will be food. It will have higher price guess who will buy it? You in US me in Europe people in China. Other people in poor countries will starve. Why it is so hard to understand?
UsernamesSuck33@reddit
Why can’t you grasp that people in wealthy countries are also going to suffer. People in wealthy countries are also going to starve. People in wealthy countries suffer and starve already. You must be fairly wealthy if you’re not worried about how much worse things are going to get. Enjoy that while you can.
FallenCheeseStar@reddit
They're a crypto bro, they dont understand shit. Ignore them
Odd-Priority3318@reddit
I can see both sides of this debate. I hope everyone else does the same. :)
Frequent-Ad-6206@reddit
True, you can sleep in a tent at -10C
However: -You can’t grow food. We import over 50% today. -Pipes for sewage and water frozen and burst nationwide -Electric grid collapse
You won’t need to insulate your home from the cold, you will have to insulate from the millions of new natives who would have killed you for your phone or religious preference, wonder what they would do for food and water.
couldbeimpartial@reddit
You sound like a CEO. No concern for the many people that will die while people adapt.
freeman_joe@reddit
If you got that impression from my comment that was not my intention. I just know what is -10C to -20C and people will survive it easily. I am more concerned about what climate change will do to oceans, forests and poor people. Average US citizen will manage imho. But not people in poor African Asian etc nations.
dhruan@reddit
Would be a great time to set up a company that builds housea to Nordic standards…
kingofthesofas@reddit
Think Montreal weather... or moscow.
issi_tohbi@reddit
So what happens to us already living in the hell of Montreal weather 🫠
xx31315@reddit
Yakutsk it is for you, then.
/s, obviously.
WhereDidAllTheSnowGo@reddit
East Coast of US benefits from the warm water northward flow too
Delaware beaches gunna be chilly
VaultdwellingHunter@reddit
Silver lining... Less tourists.
Addicted2Weasels@reddit
This will be disastrous for potential Jaws sequels
NWGreenQueen@reddit
*fewer
spokenotwheel@reddit
Thank you for not making me be the one.
ModernRobespierre@reddit
Same
defecto@reddit
Less jobs
TubeSockLover87@reddit
Higher taxes
sixxtynoine@reddit
More winning
New_Stats@reddit
Laughs in NJ
Quantic@reddit
This must be someone elses fault except our chosen political party...
RockinRod412@reddit
Wonder how this will affect the horseshoe crab. Dude’s been there for a while.🤔
carlitospig@reddit
There’s a fucked oceanic warming happening in the pacific now too and it’s already starting to have impact on fishing.
More info.
Upbeat-Stage2107@reddit
We are the west coast now!
karl4319@reddit
Middle of Canada in winter. London has the same latitude as Winnipeg after all.
SnooLobsters1308@reddit
yes, exactly, the amoc pulls warm water from the south and helps warm up UK
Birdybadass@reddit
For folks that value substance over clickbait - under continued high emissions there is a roughly 50% chance the AMOC will start to collapse around 2060 which will likely be a multiple decade process. This isn’t an imminent threat, is avoidable or can be mitigated, and anything you do today to prep will likely not relevant by 2060 anyways. We’ve all got more imminent problems ahead.
Amazing-Routine-9793@reddit
Would this affect the southern hemisphere at all?
V1ld0r_@reddit
Yes. The AMOC is essentially a conveyor belt. On the war, top surface it flows north and the cold, deep water flows south. This circulation goes from the south Atlantic (around Argentina) to the north Atlantic ( to Iceland).
Amazing-Routine-9793@reddit
Thank you for your reply. I wasn't sure if it was a silly question and i was waiting to be mocked.
Also, time can mean different things to different scientists, so in this case, do you know how 'imminent' is imminent?
V1ld0r_@reddit
Unknown. There's been some alarm for at least a decade but it could happen and what it implies but no hard certainty.
ruaraid@reddit
I think this means that the European climate will become colder, especially in Central and Northern Europe. On the other hand, Southern countries will be more or less unaffected if we take into account climate change. I don't know what the possible outcomes are regarding winds and rain. Can anyone correct me?
escapefromburlington@reddit
Interior Europe will be a desert 🤣
thiccDurnald@reddit
Interesting emoji choice
escapefromburlington@reddit
How humanity has conducted itself on this planet is a cosmic joke that I find quite hilarious actually. I feel for individual humans tho, not advocating for more sociopathy.
StoogeMcSphincter@reddit
Isn’t climate change the whole gestalt of this post?
Anxious_cactus@reddit
Southern will also get colder during winter but also dryer. So even more draught in Greece, Italy, Croatia, Spain
Mochalada@reddit
I genuinely don’t know what I as an individual am supposed to do with this information.
V1ld0r_@reddit
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and wish it doesn't pan out as "The day after tomorrow".
22lofi@reddit
basically the plot of The Day After Tomorrow?
UnfazedReality463@reddit
That was just a movie. The whole world wouldn’t freeze. Europe and other countries in the region would though.
PurpleCoat6656@reddit
We'll grow oranges in Alaska.
wesley-osbourne@reddit
If it gets one degree warmer I'm gonna kick your ass!
podun@reddit
Misleading headline
johnnyringo1985@reddit
Before anyone gets too doom-and-gloom about this:
This same crew published a paper in 2024 saying that there is not example in history of AMOC collapse, despite wider temperature variations that we have now or are predicted.
So the model the created for the 2024 study, which they relied upon here, is based upon purely hypothetical outcome that has never occurred.
It would be like me making a model based on the assumption and conclusion that eating lollipops leads to the discovery of unicorns. Then once I’ve published my model, I come back later and publish follow-up saying I’m only 10,000 lollipops away from discovering unicorns.
Civil_Cantaloupe2402@reddit
It did occur 12k years ago and triggered an ice age.
ElCuntHunt@reddit
Fuck Me, I hope Dennis Quaid can save us all. :\
old_Spivey@reddit
It doesn't just screw up ocean temperature, it screws with the whole oceanic biome and affects all the weather patterns. It's a horror show.
Electrical-Screen669@reddit
Tl,dr: Then, about 25 years later, the AMOC collapses in the model.
Puzzled_Cream1798@reddit
It's not just suddenly going to collapse after 25 years, the weather is allready fucked and it's gradually going to get worse
Earth's heating faster than the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum where is rose 5 degrees over 5 to 20k heads 0.1 degree a century, we just did 1 degree in a century... You're highly regarded if you don't think there's going to be problems when 75% of life went extinct during that extinction event
johnnyringo1985@reddit
This same crew published a paper in 2024 saying that there is not example in history of AMOC collapse, despite wider temperature variations that we have now or are predicted now.
So the model the created for the 2024 study, which they relied upon here, is based upon purely hypothetical outcome that has never occurred.
nostrademons@reddit
Note that the model made a testable prediction (that the Gulf Stream should be shifting north along the U.S. Atlantic coast) and then they went back to empirical satellite data and found that it is in fact shifting north.
This doesn’t make it automatically right. There is no such thing about automatically right in science. But the gold standard in scientific modeling is “can you make testable predictions that are then verified by experiment?” A prediction is something that is much harder to get accidentally right by p-hacking or overfitting or chance, because you didn’t have the new data you’re testing at the time you made the model.
So as scientific results go, this is actually pretty rigorous. It’s not conclusive; nothing is in science. But you should probably go sit up and seek out other data to test whether the model holds up.
johnnyringo1985@reddit
Co-author Dijkstra said in 2025 that their estimates of pre-2004 AMOK reconstructions are “very uncertain.” And that’s the data underlying the model.
So now you’re saying that they had options, guessed correctly, so that lends credibility to a model based on “very uncertain” data predicting an outcome the authors acknowledge cannot be found at anytime in history? very rigorous /s
nostrademons@reddit
Again, this is you misunderstanding science. In rigorous science, you admit when you don’t know something, and then run experiments and collect data to find out whether you were right or not. If you were wrong, you adjust the model based on what you’ve learned.
I’d be much more worried if they said “the AMOC will collapse with a high degree of confidence” and then ran no follow up experiments. That’s the “trust me bro” style of confidence, popular in politics and Reddit (and politics on Reddit!) but not at all scientific.
johnnyringo1985@reddit
OP’s post, and the article linked, say collapse is “imminent.” I’ve been responding to the possibility of error. You tell me—do the paper or its’ authors seem to have a high enough degree of confidence to call a collapse “imminent”? If not, maybe we can help some of the people on r/prepperintel who may overreact and overcorrect to news of something cataclysmic for Northern Europe’s status quo being imminent.
TernarySquare0123@reddit
What's your game? No one here is doing that.
johnnyringo1985@reddit
When the audience of this sub doubled after the November election, the number of posts that were just “Donald Trump tied his shoes menacingly this morning” took over. It took mods months to rein it in. That scenario convinced me that there is a not-insubstantial of people on this sub now suffering from serious mental illness.
TernarySquare0123@reddit
Yeah it affected me too, here and on other subs.
But that's entirely unrelated - unless you're referring to yourself in the last sentence.
johnnyringo1985@reddit
Lmfao.
The article headline and OP’s post are about something “imminent”, but the model is based on entirely assumed data for everything pre-2004, this paper uses the highest carbon scenario which we’re already below, and their confidence level (using assumed data and a too-high carbon scenario) is still only 67%… so a long ways from “imminent.”
Instead of anyone clarifying that in top level comments, jackasses are hitting me deep in the comments mad that I’ve tried to provide context to people who potentially aren’t used to how climate modeling works, because this isn’t a climate sub.
So, like, do you think you’re providing a service to the community diving into a thread this deep to add comments with no value, or are you just compelled to say dumb shit to someone who has obviously read the article, the referenced paper in the articles, and the previously-published paper underlying the model?
TernarySquare0123@reddit
I'm just trying to figure out your motivations.
"It's the overcorrecters" - who don't exist. "It's the TDS" - which isn't relevant. We've come so far. Let's not revert to pretending that this is about journalistic excellence.
What's really got your panties in a twist? What motivates people like you?
You've made almost 10% of all comments in this thread. Where does that commitment come from?
johnnyringo1985@reddit
someone is providing fact-based context about a complicated topic on the internet—cui bono?!
You sound ridiculous. Goodbye
bioindicator@reddit
It’s about degrees of confidence. And having a model make a testable prediction, and the subsequent measurement being consistent with the prediction increases the degree of confidence that the model is an accurate representation of the real world.
johnnyringo1985@reddit
OP’s post, and the article linked, say collapse is “imminent.” I’m responding to the possibility of error. You tell me—do the paper or its’ authors seem to have a high enough degree of confidence to call a collapse “imminent”?
If not, why are you replying to me instead of making a point about “degrees of confidence” and the dangers of journalistic hyperbole on the post itself, instead of arguing deep in the comments with someone who has obviously researched this paper, its authors, and similar research?
bioindicator@reddit
I was thinking the same thing after I replied to you. Should have posted higher up in the replies. Anyway, re ‘imminent’ point of the paper, the way I read that is that given the observation and consistency with the model the 25 year/imminent impact prediction is more probable now than prior to that observation.
johnnyringo1985@reddit
I appreciate that.
This bit isn’t suited for higher in the comment on a non-climate-oriented sub, but they are clear it’s only a roughly 2-in-3 probability in the model, but they’re using the high carbon baseline with only 2% renewable adoption, which we are already trending well above. While it’s an interesting result, that is a low probability to call it “imminent”, especially when it’s using already-wrong carbon assumptions.
bioindicator@reddit
Agreed. Reminds me reading in 2008ish that the Kilimanjaro glaciers will be gone by 2020 or so. Still there, although somewhat diminished.
Jumpy-Station6173@reddit
I’ve read a different study that states we have 30-40 years and it comes from Uni if New South Wales:
https://phys.org/news/2023-03-deep-ocean-currents-antarctica-collapse.html
johnnyringo1985@reddit
Ah yes, another model-based “we’re doomed” with limited sparse observational validity.
Worth noting that two of the institutions mentioned also have models showing Antarctic circulation is more resilient than we think, particularly with bigger systems operating than we currently understand. Essentially, there is no unified model consensus, even within mainstream climate science.
And while this is different than AMOK, the study shows a modeled slowdown under high-emissions assumptions, but the article frames it as a likely collapse, despite significant uncertainty in models, limited observational validation, and competing evidence about system stability.
IguessIllMakeAnAcnt@reddit
Thank god we have a 9 month old astroturfing bot to tell us it isn't a big deal and we shouldn't worry about it.
Electrical-Screen669@reddit
If you mean me then you misunderstood me. I am very worried. I did not like the clickbate headline
Any_Needleworker_273@reddit
I learned about the potential for the AMOC collapse back in college in the late 90s. It's been on the radar of concern for a long time, and now we have people speed running environmental rollbacks. Think what you want about wherever you stand on climate issues, but we are absolutely doing the planet no favors at the moment.
Mathfanforpresident@reddit
I think that's what makes this all the more ignorant. We are the only species that exists that actively destroys the only climate it can exist in. (The entire Earth)
Could you imagine if squirrels got really intelligent and just started deforesting the entire planet, driving themselves to extinction?
That's the exact situation we have right now. Honestly if we don't start bringing the guillotines back, we won't have a planet to exist on.
big_boi_26@reddit
I think of it like an algae bloom.
devnullradio@reddit
Sadly, if you look into the science, we've got multiple decades of continued warming already baked into the system. Even if we stopped all emissions today (which, we are not, we are accelerating still), the warming and destabilization would continue for decades.
We're in a really bad situation that's only now starting to reveal itself in our regular systems.
Not an argument for nihilism or to not do anything, we should absolutely try and hit the brakes. But it's really not looking great for humanity.
0masterdebater0@reddit
In terms of oceanic currents that have been present what since before Doggerland fully sank into the sea? I’d say on that scale 25 years is “imminent”
ihaveadogalso2@reddit
I disagree, I’ve seen this documentary and it’ll happen in a matter of hours! /s
Also, none of this is funny at all 😕
TwinIronBlood@reddit
I'm irish shit fuck wr are screwed
DanOhMiiite@reddit
Oh no! Another "existential threat"! Run for the hills! I take any climate related reporting now with a grain of salt after all the failed doomcasting by scientists over the last 25 yrs. Anyone remember how we were all going to die from the giant hole in the ozone layer?
mystery_biscotti@reddit
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall the ozone hole and acid rain were resolved by having the will to regulate certain chemicals out of our industrial processes?
Mochalada@reddit
You’re correct, we solved the ozone layer issue back when people still cared.
DanOhMiiite@reddit
Fair point. That's probably a bad example I used.
TernarySquare0123@reddit
You're correct.
Tom-Cruise-Missiles@reddit
Does this mean there’s going to be better snowboarding days in the Rockies, or more of what it was like this year? Hot and slush.
Also, I finally feel vindicated! My GF finally accepted my prepping last night. I have 9 months of food and water, 20k round of .22 (lots of other rounds), and a reloader… and all the other crap we all accumulate when prepping. Her cousin’s in intelligence and called her to tell her she may want to start stocking up on about 6 months of food (didn’t mention water). For whatever that’s worth.
Doctor_Jensen117@reddit
Also living in the Rockies down in Utah and wondering the same thing. I imagine it will get hotter.
CityCareless@reddit
That’s due to this stupid ass war and the fact that we get fertilizer from (urea) coming from ME through the straight. And it’s planting season rn, so yeah we are headed for a food shortage in industrial farming because of our government.
Osprenti@reddit
In Scotland we have been hearing about the North Atlantic Drift stopping for 25 years.
1stDegreeMisdemeanor@reddit
But the U.S. has the own the libs!
caponemalone2020@reddit
Why not? Throw the Gulf Stream Collapse special in there, too. Add a little nuclear warfare. Make it extra spicy.
meralakrits@reddit
"This research doesn’t prove a collapse is imminent, and it doesn’t give a clean countdown clock."
KateMacDonaldArts@reddit
That’s a sensational headline and only based on simulations from one study. It’s not intel, it’s not even applicable to this century. Read the full article:
“The most dramatic result comes far into the simulation. After centuries of gradual change, the Gulf Stream suddenly jumps more than 200 kilometers north in just two years. Then, about 25 years later, the AMOC collapses in the model.
To be clear, the study is not claiming the real AMOC will collapse in 400 years. This is an idealized scenario meant to explore how the system behaves and what warning signs might show up.”
And whatever happened to attaching commentary related to prepping to articles? The quality in this sub has been slipping over the past few months.
icouldbedownidktho@reddit
Thanks homie. Headline was jarring
Beneficial-Piano-428@reddit
lol sure Jan
ninjaluvr@reddit
Imminent is apparently 400 years from now....
taybay462@reddit
What? The article says 25 based on the model which is based on recent trends.
ninjaluvr@reddit
u/taybay462 down votes me and says "What? The article says 25 based on the model which is based on recent trends."
I swear reading comprehension is lost... Here's the section in question. I have highlighted in bold the key points:
So when you say "What?", that's what.
oz81dog@reddit
Man, we'd probably still have shit winters in the PNW while it's freezing in the NE! Seriously though, what effect would it have on the Pacific Ocean?
pooinmypants1@reddit
What does western states climate look like if this happens?
ruraljuror__@reddit
IIRC not much.
Gooser3000@reddit
They can’t even forecast the weather 24hrs out accurately in my state
jojackmcgurk@reddit
Ok. Got it. I'll just add it to the pile of "Imminent Disasters." I should get a filing cabinet
Embark10@reddit
Clickbaity title
AndersDreth@reddit
Nothing in the article directly suggests that it's imminent, what the article does say is that we have only been doing direct measurements since 2004 which means we cannot be certain whether we are tracking natural ups and downs or a more serious pattern.
The article then goes on to explain that we found a new way to corroborate the models by tracking the AMOC from space, if previous models were correct then the stream should have started to tug north and it has.
They then go on to explain that this is just a new tool they can use to track sudden changes, if it rapidly pulls to the north then that's a sign it's about to collapse. But 50km over some years wasn't cause for immediate concern.
Biotic101@reddit
Good article, only criticism is the headline because the article states the collapse is likely not imminent.
But with even further warming and melt of Greenland ice, I would not be surprised if the development would speed up.