How long until famine?
Posted by FunPermission6320@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 186 comments
Not only food gets higher in price every other week but the quality is getting worse. Chocolate for instance isn't even real anymore, cocoa is silently replaced with palm oil. Food is also getting smaller in sizes. I think its only a matter of time until there's simply not enough food. I'm surprised we can still feed so many people
25TiMp@reddit
It is already happening in every country in the world. Every day, people go to bed hungry because they cannot afford enough food. It happens in the US, the EU, and in other rich countries like Japan. Naturally, it happens in poorer countries too. When we have massive crop failures in multiple bread basket countries, this is when the real global famines will start. I do not know when it will occur, but I would guess we might see one before 2100.
Void_of_a_Writer01@reddit
The MBBF problem is likely to see a 50% crap production decline by around the late 2040’s to early 2050’s… but of course we have to account for the fact that many of these studies are also downplayed in terms of their more exponential trajectories to keep “mass hysteria at a minimum” or whatever. So then if we adjust for those “hopefully advocating” for borrowed time that no longer exists… well you’ve seen for yourself that we are already starting to experience these issues, and while every natural system now feeds into the feedback loop of damage we have caused?
I’d genuinely be surprised if our species made it to 2100 in any form that doesn’t end with the last ~2 million people this planet could support, sitting in bunkers in the event of nuclear winter… which would eventually starve us out and only leave the most technologically advanced and militaristically ruthless group standing.
Ironically I think that our failure existentially is equal to our moral/psychological failure as a species, because if we were a species that was morally justified in existing… I don’t think we would’ve let it ever get this far in the first place. But we failed the test, and so now I think we must observe as The Great Filter Theory is proven as a sort of “Natural Law” once we destroy ourselves.
BTRCguy@reddit
"How long until famine where I live?", you mean. Bemoaning a decline in chocolate quality in the same breath as famine seems a quintessentially first world viewpoint.
nommabelle@reddit
Surely the answer would be similar for most people these days? I'm no expert on the food system, but most places don't have the capability to produce actual food without dependency on supply chains, and even in those cases, the diet would be extremely limited
I totally agree with your statement, but our globalized society with supply chains for almost everything means a decline in one breadbasket is felt nearly everywhere. And as much as we want to convince ourselves, some backyard gardens aren't going to save you
On a similar note, people always talk about collapse occurring at different rates in different places. Yes, that would be true, but once again our society is so globalized that it's unlikely first world countries collapse at meaningfully different rates. I'm going to be a horrible person and say I don't really count third world-type countries in that because their 'collapse' is slightly different. I don't want to get in a big debate over these things as it really doesn't even matter, but I don't think famine will hit us at significantly different times
AMRtard@reddit
Back yard gardens can absolutely produce a years worth of calories for a household, especially when combine with a secondary protein crop like chickens or rabbits. I understand not everyone has that space but many do, it’s more an issue of “have you been practicing” corn (dried) squash and beans can produce a huge volume of shelf stable calories on a very small area, do you know how to can and dry fruit? Do you know how to make these yields on the space available to you. Are you working in your community garden and do you have a local seed library. You won’t be eating bread and burgers but if the concern is about annual caloric intake and not preferred caloric intake it is absolutely possible . Homegrownhandgathered is a YouTube channel dedicated to this idea. I’m in the PNW and we stared seed indoors in late February this year. The problem really stems from have you been doing this for the last 5 years when the failure cost of the learning curve was unconsequential. We buy very little produce June to September and my folks by almost zero from may to October as do many of my coworkers. Plenty of people are already doing this. Rice beans and dried peas and corn are still available and affordable and store well in 5 gallon buckets. I’d rather learn this stuff now cause if you wait until you’re hungry it’s too late. I use to live with a history teacher who liked to say it’s not the guy that hungry today doesn’t starve, it’s the one who’s worried he’s going to be hungry tomorrow.
Brullaapje@reddit
Really many do? What is your definition of many anyways? As far as I know the majority of people in a lot of countries live in the big cities. How many of those have back yard that can produce years worth of calories?
smajliiicka@reddit
My nana was growing tomatoes, capsicums and onions on a balcony, but please, continue
Hour-Stable2050@reddit
My balcony gets very little sun but I can still grow leafy greens and herbs. I’ll probably do that this year. It’s better than nothing.
smajliiicka@reddit
Grow lights are good for indoor garden 🙏🏼
Brullaapje@reddit
She grew enough to produce a years worth of calories for a household?
smajliiicka@reddit
A year, yes, it was collective effort, where every apartment grew something different. Produce got canned/preserved, stored in cellars. Where there's a will, there's a way
fishnoguns@reddit
The best estimate is that you need about \~400 m2 per person for supplying a year's worth of calories if you know what you are doing (and obviously a vegetarian diet). There is no possible way balcony gardens or even city-based backyard gardens can supply that food.
Rt_Trick@reddit
Not without outside inputs they can't, unless your idea of a backyard is many many acres. For every m2 of land under cultivation, you need around 4m2 of land to produce feed/mulch/compost crops if you are going to actually be self sufficient.
fearless-jones@reddit
Hard to do in az where the soil is too hard and everything gets killed by 120 temps
cchurchill1984@reddit
But not impossible. Check out the local community gardens:)
useless_rejoinder@reddit
Live on the flank of a volcano and complain when it does volcano shit. Humans are strange little bags of entitlement.
fearless-jones@reddit
Sorry for being Native on my ancestral lands. But go off, king.
useless_rejoinder@reddit
Play that card, homeboy. Last I heard, the natives followed the food when they weren’t being imprisoned on the ghetto— I mean “reservation.” They followed the seasons and the food. Not like the fat white AC-addicted clowns that live on once sacred lands.
SpaceCptWinters@reddit
Very few people have choice when it comes to where in the world they live.
useless_rejoinder@reddit
We are by nature nomadic. We have all the choice. It’s a matter of discomfort and inconvenience.
kellsdeep@reddit
Why do people seem to think anyone can just abandon their homes in a whim?
AMRtard@reddit
There’s a product called shade cloth that comes in sun reduction percentages, it’s basically a variegated tarp material you can use it as a canopy to reduce the amount of light your plants are getting. Also Arizona is a great place to run vertical outdoor hydo systems, they control water loss and allow for growing large yields on very small pads. With the extended growing season you should be able to produce fresh veg year round. Set up cost is higher but output is huge.
Jibeset@reddit
That sounds like a you (and them) problem. Might want to fix that first.
Current-Code@reddit
Europe is more than self sufficient food wise.
There is also a push for a few years to consume more locally, pushed by environmental concern, I'd expect this trend to quicken.
Own_Ad6901@reddit
Literally no it’s not, check the biodiversity and national security report from the uk the government hid. It’s wild how unprepared everyone is
Current-Code@reddit
Yes we are.
We do import things we don't produce or don't produce enough of, but that's ricardo 101, it's just more profitable to export and buy what we don't produce.
However we could 100% feed ourselves solely on our domestic production if need be.
Need isn't be.
Dron22@reddit
Europe has not been self sufficient for decades, maybe a couple of countries are the exception. UK for example relies on imported food to cover at least 50% of its needs. Also even for food Europe does produce, they still need to import essential things like fertilisers.
BigJSunshine@reddit
VICTORY GARDENS GONNA BE LIT IN 2029
Dragoncat_3_4@reddit
Thing is, in the EU at least, we're not singular countries as far as markets are concerned (the UK can tag along too I guess). We're a block, and block happens to be a net exporter of food. You're right about the fertilizer though. If the Hormuz remains blocked for much longer then that means less fertilizer which also means a lot lower productivity of the land.
Dron22@reddit
They export some food because it's profitable, not because they have an excess of it.
Current-Code@reddit
We are a NET exporter, meaning we export much more than we import.
Obviously, we export for profit, that is not saying much.
But if things were to derail, export of food would be banned
Current-Code@reddit
we do import 60% of fertilizer, essentially because it was cheaper.
There has been a push for self sufficiency for years, and now we have a reason to make it happen.
It's 100% achievable, and I'm 100% convinced it is going to happen fast.
As for food self sufficiency, the union is more than self sufficient and a net exporter. We may have to say goodbye to mango in winter and avocado toasts, but this is not "starvation".
howmanysleeps@reddit
Until the ANOC collapses, anyway.
Current-Code@reddit
As far as I know, the timeline on the AMOC is 400 years.
That is, we don't know much about the AMOC yet, so, take it with a grain of salt, but I'm not living in a bunker between fuckall and nothingmuch over the AMOC
Tearakan@reddit
Eh, even then it'll still have decent summer and spring for farming. Just no winter crops.
johannesfranco13@reddit
The real problem is freak weather events, which have and will continue to become more common with climate change.
BoringRedHorse@reddit
I imagine OP is probably American, in which case the loss of chocolate started a revelation about how little nutritional content is left in any of the US approved commercial food they can access.
ToiIetGhost@reddit
Have you seen those videos where regular people (not influencers trying to go viral with AI slop) crack some eggs or cut into a piece of fruit and the consistency is all wrong? Idk what the hell they’re doing to our food but it’s getting worse
BoringRedHorse@reddit
Torture cage 'barn' eggs vs free range eggs. I dare people to test this out themselves sometime: crack one of each, watch it slide out of the shell. You can already tell the difference.
ToiIetGhost@reddit
Heartbreaking. Why can't we put a stop to factory farming already? There are better ways 😔
InconspicuousWarlord@reddit
Because as long as people keep buying, they’ll keep selling. Go to local farmers markets and buy there. My birds give us about a dozen a day, we actually use maybe a dozen a week so we either freeze dry the extra or sell at the market.
Daddy_Milk@reddit
Too true. And I live here.
Roscoe_deVille@reddit
OP out here with a staggering lack of self-awareness
False_Raven@reddit
OP isn't worried about food as much as they are worried about cake
agent139@reddit
I mean, who isn't worried about not having enough cake?
4ab273bed4f79ea5bb5@reddit
reply guy out here with a stunning lack of self awareness
Voces-Prohibere@reddit
I mean I am most worried about the global cheese supply.
onionfunyunbunion@reddit
As a fatty/prepper I have a full bucket of brownie mix with oxygen absorbers in Mylar bags. I’m ready.
melraespinn@reddit
This. Being in a place with fake chocolate means that we will be the last ones to experience the famine, not the first!
Common_Objective9743@reddit
Op sees connections you cannot
Eisenkopf69@reddit
some people even look somewhat overfed lol
Distinguishedflyer@reddit
they will become tasty treats!
Brullaapje@reddit
This x 1000 u/FunPermission6320 your post reeks of "I can tell you are privileged and naive without you telling me so"
Are you aware that for a lot of people in the world famine is normal? You have acces to the internet for fucks sake.
cdulane1@reddit
It’s an odd life
Magus_Necromantiae@reddit
Soylent Green, here we come!
Fast_School_3471@reddit
It’s already here. Protein everything
Refrigeratormarathon@reddit
The US would feel the famine last because of wealth. I think the Irish potato famine was a manufactured famine because all the food got exported.
periwinklestar1@reddit
Oh definitely it was manufactured.
Do you think the farms that transport food out of state though will stop or do you think their ego will get the better of them and they'll keep doing it despite people starving?
Refrigeratormarathon@reddit
They won’t have a choice. Farmers already live on razor thin profit margins, so losing even more of their crops is going to put them deep in the hole every year. The only way to avoid bankruptcy will be to sell the crops to whoever will pay the most for it.
Also, Volunteer's Dilemma will come into play. That’s when a group needs someone to do something for the common good, but everyone waits for someone else to do it to avoid the personal cost. Farmers will see people are starving, but they’ll think they aren’t responsible for helping because they’re also struggling to stay afloat. They will think a farmer who is “better off” should help those starving people, but no such farmer will exist.
Dangermouse0@reddit
The ones buying up the farms are big ag, corporations, and billionaires intent on monopolizing food production for the sake of weaponizing it against the public.
periwinklestar1@reddit
Heads up, my comment got deleted by reddit for just calling back to history about what happened to farms being sold for pennies at auctions.
Refrigeratormarathon@reddit
Yeah that’s another big thing that’s been happening for a while, farmers are selling their farms to corporations because they can’t compete and it’s better to sell and have something than fight and go bankrupt. Wealthy corporations will starve out the rural poor people and the wealthy city dwellers won’t hear about it and will keep buying
periwinklestar1@reddit
periwinklestar1@reddit
Ah so it's not ego but desperation. Man, that sucks.
periwinklestar1@reddit
Oof
NyriasNeo@reddit
"How long until famine?"
In the global north like the US? A long time. We waste 1/3 of our food. We over-eat to the tune of 40% obese. A large portion of the food price is not food, it is marketing, packaging, and labor to make it taste good.
There is so much slack in the food system that we can feed a lot more people if we eat 5% less beef and shift to corn.
Paying 20% more on a big Mac is not famine. Not even close.
followthedarkrabbit@reddit
Is it "overeat" or is it empty calories consumption (from high fructose corn syrup etc)? There is still nutritional deficiency occurring despite obesity rising levels.
Current geopolitical climate, and westher extremes from climate change, will further push famine onto countries already suffering. For richer countries, there will be a move away from "fed well" to just "fed".
I am incredibly privileged to live where I do, but being so rural grocery prices for food, especially fresh fruit and veg, increase rapidly. I am also super lucky to have a yard where I am planting a vege garden to supplement my foods.
Foxy_Traine@reddit
The more I learn about obesity and metabolism, the more I'm convinced that the vast majority of people with obesity either have an eating disorder, or their body is trying to get more nutrients through higher food cravings to address some underlying health issue. With the depletion of soil, even healthy food lacks the micronutrients we need, so people eating well could still have deficiencies their bodies are getting to compensate for. It's not this moral failure or laziness that a lot of people think.
NyriasNeo@reddit
"Is it "overeat" or is it empty calories consumption (from high fructose corn syrup etc)? There is still nutritional deficiency occurring despite obesity rising levels."
Yes, but calories keep us alive, particularly the brain burns about 1/3 of the energy intake although it is a lot less by weight. So we are producing way more calories than needed. Fructose corn syrup is bad for you when you drink 32 oz of soda with a lot of it. But it is a life-saver when no one has enough calories in a famine.
Nimhtom@reddit
You should read amartya sens 'on famine' where he discusses the economics underlying famine and where and why they occur, its more complicated than you would expect
BlackMassSmoker@reddit
Predictions are tough, especially in a world as big and complex as ours.
I remember watching a video of a climate scientist on a talk show predict there wouldn't be a human being left on earth in 10 years. That was around 8 years ago.
The point is the trajectory we're on means we're almost certainly heading for catastrophe. It could be the end of the century. It could, as Limits to Growth concluded in their BAU scenario, be a massive drop in population and resources sometime around the mid 21st century.
I'm not so much worried about collapse. My immediate worries are about the dark, dystopian, destabilized world we're moving into very quickly. I may not live to see the worst of climate change, but I am going to see continued worsening of our rights being further eroded, corporate greed out of control, war, and the grab for limiting resources.
You can prepare and never live to see it. You can ignore it and may be caught with your pants down. The point is I don't know. So my advice is just take every day as it comes and enjoy what you can and try not to dwell on when things will happen as there are far too many variables to take into account.
Glittering_Film_6833@reddit
'Walking Dead' is instructive in this regard.
spinningcolours@reddit
So is Idiocracy.
AnotherSpring2@reddit
Let's not forget The Terminator in the required watch list for our dystopian future.
clovis_227@reddit
Don't omit Fallout!
HeartsOfDarkness@reddit
Great post. I'm a US "government insider", and the only thing to add is that NOBODY knows with any degree of certainty what's coming. We're largely watching the show with everyone else and reacting to things we can.
FWIW, famine in the US is not on our radar anytime soon... at least not from a food availability standpoint. Food insecurity due to financial strain? That's real, and growing fast. Generally, the two biggest existential concerns in my professional world at the moment are: (1) energy availability, and (2) political violence.
96-62@reddit
At this point, the US government doesn't even have the inside track on the thinking of the *US Government* as to what it's going to do next.
HeartsOfDarkness@reddit
That's somewhat true in most administrations, but especially true for this one. Without getting into it, I work in a stratum of career professionals that's generally indifferent to political whims because we're retained for institutional knowledge and to be "the adults in the room" with elected officials. Long-term planning is basically pointless in this current environment.
clovis_227@reddit
Maybe having the grunts do a few more push-ups will fix things, though?
Ok_Main3273@reddit
Thank you again for participating in this sub and giving us an 'inside view' of the current US administration 🙏
TheFlyingPengiun@reddit
If society realizes its predicament, it might make changes which slow the decline and push out the date of collapse further. Like victory gardens popping up in times of food shortages.
Awkward_Mastodon4332@reddit
Excellent point: the response to collapse will be a lot worse than it's cause.
fedfuzz1970@reddit
This is a substack article on how availability of diesel will effect everything. It is a very dire warning if the strait remains closed.
https://open.substack.com/pub/porterstansberry/p/the-real-hormuz-crisis-is-only-beginning?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer
fitzswackhammer@reddit
My understanding is that Venezuelan oil is especially good for producing diesel...
mike-deadmonton@reddit
Kind of interesting post
When will famine be a problem because of war, correct?
So some SE Asian, like Bangladesh, having fuel issues and presumably job and delivery problems.
Some areas. In Africa operate on the edge, but can supply on oil. It really is delivery issue. I don't expect this will be as much as issue compared to climate change.
If I recall correctly, WW2 was a small blip on humanity. We are still in early days, with a leader in full dementia so it could be a huge problem.
In my opinion, this will be a short note in history. This year, super El Nino. We could see several million under food and heat stress.
FantasticMeddler@reddit
The cocoa being replaced by palm oil is for profit and greed not due to famine or shortages
BoringRedHorse@reddit
A little bit of this and a little bit of that.
TheThousandMasks@reddit
I think a lot about 1984 and the way party elites retained access to quality food and drugs while the proles, the vast majority of the population, just slowly forgot what the taste of actual chocolate was and that coffee used to have a stronger flavor to it. The quality of our staples and amenities will be enshittified so subtly that we’ll never even know that the real stuff remains for the elites.
See also the snowpiercer movie. We’ll all live on protein paste made from bugs while steak and fish are reserved for the new aristocracy.
BoringRedHorse@reddit
Enshittification hits the elites as well by the way. Some of their exotic treats may literally die out, or be replaced by shittier facsimiles. Luxury brands are profit driven as well, and do this too.
LowOne11@reddit
Snowpiercer is underrated. Didn’t think I’d like it. It’s kinda like Silo, but darker in a way with a better ending.
As far as younger gens forgetting what real chocolate tastes like, where do we start? What year? It seems to me, a 45-55yo myself, it started not being as good 10 years ago (it started with my fave Butterfinger starting to taste waxy and not the same) and recently, ~3years the major less expensive brands tasting like pure colored wax with sugar. Im guessing there was an apex year(s) where chocolate was actually chocolate that I have never tasted, circa 1950 or some such or whenever we were able to import into the US, quality cocoa beans. Maybe back when cocaine was actually in CocaCola, lol.
Imagine though, those being born NOW and eating what enshitified derivatives are concocted 10 years from now (if we make it that far) and thinking “yum good”…
Fuck…
TheThousandMasks@reddit
::Insert astronaut ‘always was’ macro::
LowOne11@reddit
Define for a forgetful mind, pretty please?
TheThousandMasks@reddit
“Always has been”
HopefulBackground448@reddit
There is a bug apocalypse now.
TheThousandMasks@reddit
Guess it’s gonna be compressed algae bars on the menu then.
96-62@reddit
This year is likely to be a famine year, because of the war in Iran, but probably not in developed countries. Although this sense I have that our wealth will insulate us might be delusional, really.
TheRationalPsychotic@reddit
Our (The West) wealth comes from the strength of the dollar, which would allow us to buy the fertilizer instead of other countries. But the strength of the dollar comes from it's role as the world reserve currency, enforced by the military, and I think Iran is trying to undo that.
eresh22@reddit
If you haven't learned about BRICS, now is a good time for that. I only learned about it recently and can't really speak to it, but there are a number of countries that have been working towards that for a while.
It-s_Not_Important@reddit
The biggest insulator or USA is the fact that we grossly overproduce (calories) in the first place.
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
We do now, before any massive crop failures come our way.
AnotherSpring2@reddit
Yeah, the 40% increase in fertilizer costs will hit here.
There_Are_No_Gods@reddit
Fertilizer and diesel are fungible global commodities, and even if we're not having to import it, the prices still go up worldwide, and those are two main inputs for "modern farming". That all leads to higher priced food, among other things.
Places like the US are unlikely to experience major actual shortages, but they are still nearly certain to experience vastly higher prices on most foods.
AnotherSpring2@reddit
The issue is that farmers have to borrow the money to buy the fertilizer, and there will be some that can't do it and have to distressed sell their land. Land prices have been insanely high in Iowa in the last decade, at one point good cropland was selling for 20k an acre. You have to have $6 a bushel corn to pay that note. When distressed land sales drive the price of land down, it deleverages everything. All the neighboring farmers' land is worth less, thus they can't borrow as much for seed and fertilizer, and down it spirals. It can mean that the fields in a distressed sale don't get planted that year as well.
eresh22@reddit
Sounds like it's time for farmers to remember how they used to treat the bank man when he showed up in the past.
GreatPlainsFarmer@reddit
We’re a long ways from enough distressed land sales to affect the price.
There’s enough farmers with deep pockets to cover those who need out.
Jeffde@reddit
Until fast food chains run out of hamberders, no one in the Bible Belt will notice.
useless_rejoinder@reddit
They’ll live for three years on the excess adipose anyway. They might be the perfect preppers. Just carry your nutrition IN your body.
Useful_Divide7154@reddit
This is the one scenario where I resent having a fast metabolism.
I don't think I could gain more than 5 pounds even with the most outrageous diet on the planet.
There_Are_No_Gods@reddit
For examples of the \~25 pounds of fat over an otherwise normally fit build, while struggling to survive on minimal food, the show Alone is a great source. After the first season, most contestants will prepare for the experience by quickly adding around 30 pounds of body fat, as the way the setup works, it usually comes down largely to competition of who can starve the longest.
My main takeaway from 10+ seasons of examples, is that while doing just what work is necessary to survive (small shelter, fish, hunt, forage), even while catching one or more large fish, rabbits, or game birds on most days, nearly every participant loses very close to one pound of body weight per day.
Those that really "thrive", such as harvesting a moose and lots of fish, still lose around half a pound per day. I've never seen anyone in that situation that managed to maintain their body weight.
Vishnej@reddit
Nobody really min-maxes for enough calories.
Gill nets work really well for most of them, but once one is down, they seem to just let it sit there, they don't prepare a second or third or fourth or twentieth gill net. This is probably an artifact of what the show / hosting location allow them to do, but still.
We're ridiculously good at fishing. So good that "recreational" fishing is taught with the most inefficient possible method (hook and line) and a lot of beer, with the sole intent that the humans don't completely depopulate the body of water. When people actually need to catch large amounts of fish, they use nets.
There_Are_No_Gods@reddit
It's definitely frustrating to watch them stuff a huge fish under a rock, or hang a bunch of meat from a tree, for "safe keeping", only to almost invariably show up later in shock that a martin/mouse/bird/bear/wolf/etc. ate their very poorly secured food. Some participants have continued doing so at least half a dozen times, practically the definition of insanity.
There is a case to be made for keeping some food on hand to ration it out and avoid long spells with nothing in your belly, but from what they've shown, it seems like most of the people would have been a lot better off most of the time by just gorging on each fish/bird/rabbit ASAP, maintaining body weight and using on board fat storage primarily.
useless_rejoinder@reddit
This guy fats
TheFlyingPengiun@reddit
There’s a video of a 100yr old Irish WW1 veteran who fought in the British Army in trench warfare, and he said the safest place for food was in your belly. Because if you tried to save the scraps you had, it would get eaten by bacteria or mice.
There is something in resilience to be learned from those who fought in trenches.
BTRCguy@reddit
The next "zombie apocalypse" movie will have masses of starving people chasing down the hefty ones. Just need a catchy title for it.
useless_rejoinder@reddit
“Chubby chasers 9: Revenge of the Jocks.”
gc3@reddit
That was due to government policy. But with fertilizer shortages and bankrupting farmers, and poor government policy, this might change
WhichContribution294@reddit
When does the petrodollar collapse and hyperinflation begin?
96-62@reddit
That does seem to be Iran's war aim. But that will only stiffen the US resolve. To be honest, the US might even win this war, at some enourmous expense to the rest of the world, as I just can't see them backing down. Yes, closing the straits of Hormuz is dangerous and destructive - but to the rest of the world, not the US so much. Or at least, in the eyes of the decision maker making the decision as to whether the US will back down or not.
Jibeset@reddit
See this is what people are not considering, before we, the US, allow ourselves to slip from the top of the leader board, we’ll definitely try everything to remain there, including expending our entire military. We would throw everything at whatever obstacle was in our way to reign supreme. Ukraine, go ahead Russia take that and whatever else in Europe that you want an can take. China you too! As long as we keep getting cheap energy and our trinkets made for us, we won’t riot. We would absolutely be okay with flipping over the chessboard if we thought we may start to even be in check.
As it is, we may just let the EU fend for itself militarily. I think we’ll see aid to Ukraine be dropped within months. The rest of the world will either need to step up to fill the gap or not, however that scenario will play out.
96-62@reddit
Aid the Ukraine was mostly dropped last year. The remaining aid from the US is more or less "You Europeans can buy American defence tech and weapons for them".
Jibeset@reddit
I’m thinking that this admin may try and block the obligated but not yet dispersed money. We’d obviously still take the PURL money. But yeah, this is going to be Europe’s war from here going forward.
PermiePagan@reddit
> To be honest, the US might even win this war,
They're totally gonna win in Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, and Ukraine, too. And day now.
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
There may be one or two or three, etc. world leaders (there is obviously at least one) who have access to nuclear weapons who may decide to prove their manhood by using them. Also consider that these "nuclear" men are mostly old, and old people sometimes get a terminal diagnosis that the public is not made aware of. Imagine a dying nuclear powered world leader who happens to be a raging, malignant narcissist who sees little reason for life to go on for lesser beings if they have little time left.
PermiePagan@reddit
Soon, as they are currently exhausting the BS infinite money glithch to keep US oil prices under control. Eventually the grift will be exposed as countries drop the petrodollar, and switch to Yuan/BRIKS in order to pay to get through Hormuz and eventually the Red Sea when Yemen exerts territorial control.
rematar@reddit
Pretty spoon.
bonnique@reddit
Many chemical fertilizer plants in India have shut down, at least partially, as they are not able to produce urea without LNG
96-62@reddit
Which is slightly scary. If 30% of fertilizer comes through the gulf, are they counting gas as a precursor. Maybe the fall in fertilizer available is even higher?
SquirrelAkl@reddit
I’ve got some bad news…
Australia is the 3rd largest producer of LNG and its production just got damaged by a cyclone.
96-62@reddit
More bad news? Okay, that's ordinary bad news, that can take a ticket and wait.
SquirrelAkl@reddit
It means even more fertiliser input (LNG) production plants are offline. It isn’t only the Middle East now
robotermaedchen@reddit
"some" will starve to death, others will get on the move. Climate change and migration is already a thing, that will only increase. Add in a war-related famine and it must only ecceleratebthat, no? (I don't have sources on actual numbers and stuff at hand)
ideleteoften@reddit
I think our collective calorie intake will go down, maybe not to the point of starvation but it'll be less than Americans are typically used to.
AnotherFuckingSheep@reddit
Famine and higher prices are closely related. You can view higher prices as markets way of forcing some people, normally the poorest, to stop consuming some foods.
The question is whether they have an alternative to move to. If they do they will move. If not and they cannot afford the higher prices they will starve. Thats from an economic point of view.
If you're living in the west you can outbid much of the world before you go hungry so famine will only come after most of the world is starved or something else breaks.
AutomaticExchange204@reddit
it’s already started. most of the population is eating food that doesn’t even promote healthy eating.
pl487@reddit
The US produces enough corn alone to feed its entire population every year. Much of it goes to ethanol, but that can change immediately if you're willing to ration gasoline and start distributing sacks of enriched cornmeal.
The US isn't going to starve. We will be eating a lot of cornbread, though.
DorkHonor@reddit
I volunteer as tribute.
Vishnej@reddit
As an American, your government pays large farms enough to produce \~10x as much food as you need to consume, and the extra goes into inefficient beef or ethanol to burn in your car engine (that's right, we literally set it on fire).
Chocolate is not a food crop, it's a luxury flavoring in confectionary.
RiverDragon64@reddit
“Chocolate for instance isn't even real anymore, cocoa is silently replaced with palm oil” is utter horse shit. Cocoa butter is being replaced, not cocoa powder. It’s not as good, but it’s still chocolate.
Spiritual_Coffee_299@reddit
There is plenty of food but there's way more greed.
Dangermouse0@reddit
Yes, this!
Dfiggsmeister@reddit
Famine in this day and age is artificially created by large corporations controlling the means of production from seeds to end user products with a few exceptions. The world has plenty of food to feed everyone, the problem is, getting that food to remote areas becomes a challenge and not all areas are ripe for farming.
What will cause collapse isn’t the production of food, but the supply chain of getting food from farm to kitchen. When supply chains break, that’s when you’ll see massive collapse globally and we almost saw that when Covid hit and many countries shut down travel.
KhloJSimpson@reddit
Corporations and the deliberate starvation of populations by state entities.
Creepy_Valuable6223@reddit
If the field corn grown for ethanol in the U.S. were used for human food instead, it could feed 100 million people per year. The early American settlers practically lived on corn meal in the form of bread and biscuits and the like. It isn't the most healthful food as a main food group but it will keep you alive.
KhloJSimpson@reddit
There is famine happening in the world right now. As climate disaster and conflict continue, more and more people all over the world will be hungry.
Icy-Medicine-495@reddit
Probably 2027 at the soonest. We still have a surplus from last years harvest (typically a 3 month supply of extra from when the next expected harvest will be. So we really shouldn't see a significant shortage until 7 months of todays planting season.
So plenty of time to start a garden if you can and grow some of your own food. I know I am planting a ton of potatoes, tomatoes, peppers and pumpkins this spring. I just started 60 plus tomato plants last week.
Bandits101@reddit
I don’t think it’s a matter of either/or. there only needs to be disruption or a little percentage drop in availability, just like oil now. There is plenty of gasoline but the world runs on diesel and jet fuel.
Many things can be done without, or substituted but if the “substitutes” become scarce or even too costly panic begins. Some products seem like they’re essential like toothpaste, toilet paper, milk and milk products.
Shortages and availability seem to sneak up. Like if you go to buy charcoal for a BBQ, a bag of fertilizer, certain frozen vegetables or even a large bag of rice.
The lower on the socioeconomic ladder you are the less you have to lose but the actual breaking point is very close.
periwinklestar1@reddit
Am hoping our local farms stop selling produce out of state. It would be more convenient to sell it local and cheaper. Hopefully they'll realize it's really dumb to do so long term.
humanity_go_boom@reddit
US per capital meat consumption is still 227 lb, so not here... Millions will probably across poorer nations though.
SquirrelAkl@reddit
It depends on where.
Fertiliser has to be applied at the time of planting. Farmers who don’t have fertiliser are needing to make decisions about whether to plant. Fast forward 3-6 months, depending on the crop and there will be gaps of food not grown.
Some countries are prepared for this, others are not. China reportedly has 18 months worth of grain supply for its people; places like the UK might only have a couple of weeks of food, and then there’s distribution logistics.
Wealthy countries may be able to get the world’s food redirected to them, but they will experience inflation on steroids. Not all the people in these countries will be able to afford to buy the food.
So… 6 months?
retrofuturia@reddit
We globally produce way more food than we actually need, much of which is lost due to wastage and supply chain inefficiency. Simple efficiency tweaks could feed the world multiple times over.
LowOne11@reddit
While also giving the wrong people credits (money) for “lost income”. It’s really a many-forked problem but points mostly to greed among demand on commodities. It basically boils down to stealing money from the mouths of the hungry world-wide and overcharging for eggs (locally US) when the whole “bird flue” was a thing, for example. Large conglomerates made profit on that, as well. Mass farming is a problem. From fiber to protein manufacturing.
AnotherSpring2@reddit
And coffee. It's getting really expensive and doesn't grow where I live : (
filmguy36@reddit
The first of many famines begins this summer. Here in the states prices will skyrocket but, for the moment, the upper middle class, the wealthy and the billionaires won’t fell much of the pain, but the rest of us, well be on the diet by inflation.
Other areas of the world, mostly current 3rd world countries will see widespread famine.
HopefulBackground448@reddit
I follow a World War 2 British rations cooking channel. She ate the retions for eight days and lost five pounds. She said she was hungry all the time. It was very eye opening.
Grouchy_Solution_819@reddit
That's interesting would like to see it
HopefulBackground448@reddit
Here is a Link
Grouchy_Solution_819@reddit
Thanks!
fuckingham_green@reddit
Chocolate production is getting slammed with diseases and bad weather. Its been a problem for a couple of years now and it is not related to food distribution problems like a normal famine in this day and age. Could be a harbinger of things to come though.
Its still chocolate, which won't cause starvation if we can't find it anymore. Just wait for something more substantial like wheat.
thunda639@reddit
The change to palm oil is because the African farmers who raise the cocoa are no longer willing to live in abject poverty. Hershey said ohh no you don't.
There are still people using real cocoa. Just have to find them.
IMCopernicus@reddit
Cacao is believed to be a gift from the gods to the people. Like a gift of the gods, the cacao tree wants to be treated as such and it’s a huge pain in the rear to maintain and even more to keep it bearing fruit. The yields are abismal, must be harvested by hand (if you scar the trunk, it won’t grow flowers in that part of the trunk), highly susceptible to fungus (because it live to grow in high humidity, and if any animal climbs the tree or high winds, it knocks down the tiny flowers off the trunk, making your yields even smaller. Little jerk tree!
Counterboudd@reddit
Hard to say. I’m going to guess things are going to get more seasonal and more local before they’re gone altogether. Things like coffee and chocolate or things that require tropical environments to grow will probably get more and more expensive. That’s different than “can’t find a bag of rice to sustain life” level famine. My thinking is to grow some of my own food, forage to supplement, get used to food preservation techniques. Supply chains are fragile but I somehow suspect in the western world that provided the governments are still solvent we’d be able to get staples to sustain life, but the fancier things, out of season fruits, etc are probably going to become prohibitively expensive.
TeaPrimary1147@reddit
Already happened here in Canada. 30 for a can of coffee, 15 bucks for grapes...
Violet_Apathy@reddit
I developed countries, probably not in your lifetime unless you're very poor. In developing countries, now or soon.
Nom-De-Gruyere@reddit
The issue in developed countries will be logistics rather than the amount of food. Fuel crisis means empty shelves and most people don't have their own smallholdings or livestock like in developing countries. Plus there may be fields of crops nearby, but they will be all one monoculture as far as you can see. So either you are lucky and can get perfectly ripe wheat, or you are shit out of luck.
EdLesliesBarber@reddit
There’s a few aspects in the “developed world” that will accelerate this.
First, large scale immigration , at least attempted immigration as famine spreads. This will lead to increased spending and violence alongside social unrest.
At the same time an ever growing portion of the west are being priced out of food, housing and medicine and the unemployment rate will only go higher as the economies tank and immigration increases, driving wages to the ground.
This war has come at perhaps the absolute worst time.
TeaPrimary1147@reddit
No, it came at the perfect time to collapse the global economy, which is the whole purpose of it.
miss_iss@reddit
Hershey said sorry already for their fake stuff and are trying to do lab-grown
jaybsuave@reddit
few years if you are in the US, end of year for 3rd world countries
mellbs@reddit
However long you can afford
SpiderFloof@reddit
True famine will not likely hit developed countries very hard. What likely will happen is that food prices will rise somewhere between significantly and astronomically. Prepping can help alleviate short term impact on personal comfort.
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
Our freakish warming world, with shifting weather patterns may turn fertile lands into deserts much faster than expected.
happyladpizza@reddit
3-6 months
someofyourbeeswaxx@reddit
People are already dying of malnutrition, the rich will always have food, we’ll just see increased numbers of people suffering. It won’t be a noticeable change, just a long slide.
Current-Code@reddit
US chocolate quality falling behind is a US regulation issue.
European chocolate is still chocolate. You keep electing people who care more for the industrialists than the citizen, this is what you get. And on that matter, Biden or Obama are not better than Bush or Trump.
Chocolate aside, there is no famine coming to the west anytime soon.
The crisis we face in Iran will push inflation up. The EU did ran a scenario about this situation a couple years ago and the expected result is 3% inflations.
Painful, yes, but not end of the world painful.
We have the knowledge, resources and infrastructure for producing the fertilizers that will be missing, we have alternative sources of oil and gas.
The economy will be impacted, recession is a probability, but food will still be produced and delivered.
Chocolate may become a luxury once more, and we may have to eat less meat, but that's about it.
Asia and Africa will get the worst of it, if you were from there, then you should worry.
tellox@reddit
The two examples you cited for food getting worse are both just ways companies cut corners for the sake of profits, not signs of (any new) collapse. If you buy whole foods (plain fruits, plain veg, plain meats from the deli) you won't deal with the same level of enshittification. Prices will go up for those things, absolutely, but you won't be subject to the same obscene amount of lab-made chemicals that you'll find in processed foods like chocolate or pre-prepared meals.
jan_Kila@reddit
It's not the same level of enshittification, but it's still enshittified :( Our vegetables lack nutrients because the soil is so depleted, and they taste worse because the must popular cultivars are the ones hardy for shipping and not the ones that are pleasant to eat. This is still a good suggestion, I just wanted to complain.
Cum_Quat@reddit
If you can, start a victory garden. If not, shop locally at farmers markets for better nutrition. Look for farms that use no-till
smith2332@reddit
Not enough food when obesity across the world is at an all time high has the most ironic statement ever.
blackcatwizard@reddit
There is going to be a serious problem within the next few years. Crops are already being lost to flooding/fires and there is a massive fertilizer shortage about to hit. Seasons are completely whack and that is messing up normal cycles for planting. Fuel costs will likely impact shipping normal food you would see in your grocery.
the_real_maddison@reddit
My husband works at a grocery store and there are already certain things the store has nothing of, like bell peppers.
shr00mydan@reddit
With record low snow pack out west, I imagine bell peppers and other fresh vegetables grown with Colorado river water will be scarce this year. Hopefully it will prompt a shift to localized food production.
fedfuzz1970@reddit
The real threat is reduced availability of diesel fuel. Diesel price has already skyrocketed surcharges are being added to everything. Fasten safety belts and be sure to get in emergency food and water.
HolymakinawJoe@reddit
Chocolate? What are you on about?
Ok-Zookeepergame5245@reddit
It’s planting season now and the farmers can’t get their fertiliser thanks to Trump and his master Netanyahu. So by autumn time we will really start to feel it as there won’t be enough food to feed everyone.
MyCuntSmellsLikeHam@reddit
The question is where
flriverlivin@reddit
Depends on where we are talking. US throws away rough 30%-40% (133 billion pounds ~603B Kilos) of food a year. I suspect a shortage would garner more efficiency and reduce the govt paying some farmers not to plant. There are alternatives to fossil fuel fertilizers, though don't generate as high a yield, is better for the environment. Not sure what chocolate has to do with food shortages.