Super El Niño Escalator to Hell
Posted by ImportantCountry50@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 85 comments
[Super El Niño Escalator to Hell]()
I have posted before about the stair-step signal that has emerged from the climate data which seems to be correlated to 'super' El Niño events. Hat tip to Radio Ecoshock for pointing me to the work of Kevin Trenberth who has noticed the same step-wise change in global average temps. He posted an excellent article in The Conversation dated July 11 of 2023 titled "Global temperature rises in steps – here’s why we can expect a steep climb this year and next". He was absolutely spot-on, 2024 is in the record books as soaring well above 1.5degC above preindustrial. I was inspired by that article to create an infographic which shows the connection between 'super' El Niño's and the step-wise increase in global average temperatures. I changed the baseline from 20th century average to preindustrial average, and I slightly changed the 'escalator' to better fit the correlation with super El Niño's. Otherwise the results are the same. The next two years could see us hit a solid 1.8degC above preindustrial. Welcome to hell.
Escudo777@reddit
Still fools are fighting for oil and land causing massive damage to the environment. Some of us humans are vile creatures accelerating destruction of our planet.
Suuperdad@reddit
I mean... the resource wars have barely even begun. Barely anyone is starving yet.
jbiserkov@reddit
n 2023
28.9 percent of the global population – 2.33 billion people – were moderately or severely food insecure, meaning they did not have regular access to adequate food.
These estimates include 10.7 percent of the population – or more than 864 million people – who were severely food insecure, meaning they had run out of food at times during the year and, at worst, gone an entire day or more without eating.
Suuperdad@reddit
Its currently a distribution problem.
Without oil, the earth can support at most 1B people.
Also, studies done at Stanford University estimated we have 50 years of toilsoil remaining. The study is something like 15 years old.
Food insecure is not starving, not like we will see in the future.
Archeolops@reddit
Lma ive seen too many pregnancy announcements
parmboy@reddit
i'm moving to Thailand next week, godspeed ya'll
OpalescentCrystals@reddit
I’ve noticed that there are a few people that are adding Thailand as their move to get out. I would love to move to Thailand.
Nintara@reddit
why wouldn't thailand's southern location and high humidity be terrible for survival?
ansibleloop@reddit
Hope your AC works
Lazy_Slide_5808@reddit
42° nationwide yesterday, world's highest PM 2.5 in the north, welcome on board!
spyguy27@reddit
April is absolutely brutal, even on a relatively cool year. Enjoy Songkran, get out, buy a squirt gun and get soaked in return. Hopefully the summer rains are on track to help cool things down this year as well.
rainb0wveins@reddit
YOLO my friend. The end is nigh.
shenan@reddit
enjoy!
Dutchmondo@reddit
To near the equator? Good luck.
donthaveaclu@reddit
Well I live in India so I guess this might be it.
urlach3r@reddit
I both highly recommend and yet completely do not recommend that you read the first chapter of "The Ministry for the Future" by Kim Stanley Robinson.
Escudo777@reddit
I have read it. In summer 2023 I experienced a sample of it. High humidity,extreme heat,no winds and no power. It was like inside a sauna or pressure cooker.
Sertalin@reddit
This makes me having strong feelings of claustrophobia, nowhere to run and hide from the heat. I once have experienced 42°C for two days and I felt horrible. The heat is what I fear the most.
Subbacterium@reddit
I fear the fire
tink20seven@reddit
As an American, can we shoot the fire?
Jeffde@reddit
Pretty sure that’s SOP
phriendlyphellow@reddit
Shoot ‘em with nukes!
mooky1977@reddit
No no no, you nuke hurricanes!
25TiMp@reddit
Bomb it.
daviddjg0033@reddit
I was told the body can acclimate to cold - see the divers in Amsterdam that slowly practic - and is used to treat spinal injuries if quick and used on the football fields or cold IV drips. You move the heat towards organs - remember humans have outsized brains using 20% of the energy. Your body comes with heat by sweating but you can have https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_stroke
The chronically ill and elderly are often taking prescription medications (e.g., diuretics, anticholinergics, antipsychotics, and antihypertensives) that interfere with the body's ability to dissipate heat.
Patient works a mechanic job with no AC but has ample fluids. A heatwave sets in and because he is older working on cars from the 1990s could be on anyihypeetensives. Patient takes antipsychotics for biplolar and his job AC does not cool days with "feels like" temperatures of 115F.
Patient takes antipsychotics and stopped catching "a case of the handcuffs." Started to drink and loses air conditioning but reasons that it is winter so who cares? Did not check the forecast its a record 17F above normal temperatures. When you have higher Tmin 4am temperatures - obvious we have too many grenhouse gases - and lose air-conditioned areas people cook.
Patient is elderly and a storm comes while residing in a Florida nursing home. A politician on the TV is talking about "death panels" to scare people away frok more - not less coverage. Storns that used to be known days in advance my adult life are now Acupulco with no warning. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/trial-begins-for-owner-of-hollywood-hills-nursing-home-hurricane-irma-deaths/2966597/%3famp=1
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glampringthefoehamme@reddit
Or "heavy weather" bt Stephen Barnes.
Forward-Amount-9961@reddit
I read this book too. The first chapter was shockingly graphic. The rest of the book was so slow I almost tapped out a few times. I'm glad that I finished it, though, because I find myself thinking about it regularly even years after having read it.
SCUMDOG_MILLIONAIRE@reddit
The first chapter is worth reading, the part about the heat event. But the rest of the book after that is a complete mess.
Inevitable_Eye_1710@reddit
JFC Thanks for the anxiety attack..
nw342@reddit
Good luck....sumer 2025 didnt look fun, and it wasn't even an el nino year
Ok_Act_5321@reddit
2024 was the worst
Escudo777@reddit
I am also with you. From South India. Somehow we get rains in the evening which leads to cooler nights. Some regions in Kerala are getting extremely hot and humid.
Lailokos@reddit
This is the 3rd Kelvin Wave of this event firing right now, and it's a doozy. We're talking 97 big. We're definitely going up a floor.
2leftarms@reddit
Can you explain this Kelvin wave event for the lay people on this sub?
Lailokos@reddit
Simplest explanation is that this image is showing westerly winds in the El Nino region. These sorts of winds blow warm water across the Pacific that are the instigating event for El Ninos - but of note this image says some very very strong winds here, both in the last few weeks and more ahead. This means lots of warm water moved (mostly below the surface), which means the El Nino region gets hotter = bigger El Nino can result. And here's the kicker, this is the 3rd such event we've had over the last 4ish months. It's not as simple that 3 = huge El Nino, but 3 with winds and water at (or near) records...that's a pretty unambigious signal. Everything is lining up for a really big event, with heat being telegraphed by waves right now.
BigMountainsGuy@reddit
Examples of what could the really big event be?
blarglefart@reddit
Blue ocean event. Famine
aubreypizza@reddit
Tornadoes
glasshomonculous@reddit
Thanks for the good summary btw! I’ve visited this sub for a few years so I’m au fait with El Niño, the AOMC etc but hadn’t heard of the Kelvin wave
rainb0wveins@reddit
The stuff of nightmares you speak of.
KarmaHorn@reddit
a day to be alive...
StarlightLifter@reddit
You mean down another layer of hell?
ImportantCountry50@reddit (OP)
I think I just pee'd myself...
LintLicker444@reddit
So theoretically, if we hit the 1.8, what should we expect? Which crops will not grow? Which countries will be hit the hardest? Will water be affected? What type of diseases thrive in that? Etc
Filthy_Lucre36@reddit
If you want an in depth analysis of your area check out American Resiliency on YouTube, she walks through the data going up to 2C. She's doing them around the world so not just America's outlook.
CannyGardener@reddit
Hey most recent one was...sobering. Pretty much "Ya, all the prepping we've been trying to get folks to do. Hope you can rely on your preps and community now, cause we're entering the shit now. Good luck." ...obviously paraphrasing here. I have a toooon of respect for the presenter and her organization, but her videos are usually pretty can-do and up beat, and then this last one was scary.
LintLicker444@reddit
Wow that cool!
ImportantCountry50@reddit (OP)
Um, probably all of the above. Think of it like this: Everything going horribly wrong everywhere all at once. Hope this helps!
rainb0wveins@reddit
Perfect! Is it time to quit my job yet?
96-62@reddit
I don't know why people associate collapse with quitting your job. Collapse is "Boss, can I have more hours? The pay for my ordinary hours doesn't meet my rent any more. Boss, I'm desparate."
GardenScared8153@reddit
You can't time collapse, unless you can live without money don't do it.
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
no man, we are working until we die
lazerayfraser@reddit
Nope sorry gotta keep the wheel of imaginary paper values turning!
terrierhead@reddit
I’m medically fragile.
See y’all in hell!
Washingtonpinot@reddit
The problem with your question, and to be fair it’s most everyone’s question about crops, is the top end. It honestly doesn’t matter, because wild swings on the way to that top end will either kill off the crop or make the area unsuitable for planting.
Yes, theoretically there will be new areas opening up. But modern farming at any scale has become so specialized that anything above small regional production will be the result of an unbroken string of miracles. (dibs on that for a band name!)
urlach3r@reddit
Yes.
Whitstout@reddit
Would it be better to live in Michigan or Puerto Vallarta Mexico?
Portalrules123@reddit
Michigan for sure, although even they won’t be safe from extreme heat forever….
Whitstout@reddit
Ugh. I figured. Really don’t wana stay in the states though. How would this impact lower Mexico? Rising sea levels eventually aside of course.
DLP2000@reddit
Basically the south is gonna be VERY hot and north less hot. Talking about the northern hemisphere as a whole, not one country.
Very generally speaking.
Later the north will get very hot and the south will be unlivable.
Whitstout@reddit
So I’ve got a few years 🤣 maybe lol
here-i-am-now@reddit
Canada is right there
Whitstout@reddit
Got residency in Mexico tho
deleted_by_reddit@reddit
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nw342@reddit
Welp, I have a cuban cigar and a bottle of rum that I've been saving for the right occasion. Smoke em if you got em i guess
One_Dragonfruit_7556@reddit
I feel like we're at the end scene of the Titanic just listening to the band playing. I should go buy a cigar
Ok_Main3273@reddit
Excellent analogy. However there is a slight difference, just a tiny detail: not even a single lifeboat...
Barnacle_B0b@reddit
Earth is the lifeboat, from the infinite lifeless void of space.
Ok_Main3273@reddit
I was thinking more like the Earth is the Titanic, but we don't have a spare planet nearby where we can swim to (notwithstanding Elon Musk's dreams)😢
alloyed39@reddit
Fuck Musk.
nw342@reddit
The earth is the titanic.
The crew warned the passengers to get on the lufe rafts.
The passengers instead worsened the hull breach, and broke the life rafts
fratticus_maximus@reddit
Lol I tell my gf the same thing: I'm smoking the Cohiba and drinking Havana Club on my way out
waffledestroyer@reddit
I need to get a cigar and a bottle of whiskey for my stash.
extinction6@reddit
Everyone knows there will be collapse but there is hardly ever any mention of people not having children and hundreds of millions will needlessly suffer horrific deaths. It's just a new flavor of climate change inaction.
Instead of the old song "Throw another log on the fire" now it's children.
wam2112@reddit
Linear climate change is over for now. A new climate regime has emerged it would appear. A hotter one for sure. Will the oscillatiing extremes we’re seeing in our weather patterns change in any way I wonder?
norfolkgarden@reddit
Maybe it will be sufficient that everyone will finally be on board.
chefkoolaid@reddit
Doubt it
rmannyconda78@reddit
Bring it on. That’s all I can say at this point
smoking_barrel@reddit
We are fucked, are we not!
terrierhead@reddit
Proper fucked.
Demosthenes-storming@reddit
It’s not just “steady warming + El Niño spike.” It’s: constant rise − subtractors + modulators Constant rise: always happening (~+0.2°C/decade) Subtractors: hide it (La Niña, aerosols, ocean uptake) Modulators: swing it (El Niño reveals it) So when you go from a negative phase → strong El Niño, you don’t just get a spike — you get: hidden warming suddenly exposed That’s why it looks like a step. If the modulator flips positive later this year, then Oct–Mar could show a sharp jump (~+0.3–0.5°C vs recent years) Not new warming — just the mask coming off. TL;DR: Holy fuck a huge step is coming, if you think its hot now wait till next March!
Fire_Shin@reddit
The SST graph looks like a sinus rythm heart beat. :(
Frutbrute77@reddit
The bulb is getting sweaty folks