UK gathers more than 30 countries to plot ways of reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Posted by F0urLeafCl0ver@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 212 comments
SWatersmith@reddit
Iran has been fairly clear, don't allow US operations from your territory, break ties with Israel. Spain did it, and they're able to send ships through. Given that Israel is a pariah state, seems like a fairly easy choice for governments that care at all about their citizens.
OneMonk@reddit
If only it were that easy, the US has a megomaniac in charge and the UK and others are heavily tied to their tech. The US could turn off the taps for most US services and send Europe back to the dark ages. Sounds like fiction but they could do that if they wanted, and deviating from the US foreign policy with Trump in charge that dramatically could lead to that.
NearABE@reddit
You definitely need to “call the bluff” on that one. The tech companies would never recover.
OneMonk@reddit
It depends what the end game is, if the end game is a hegemonic US empire I think it could work quite effectively. ‘Install my puppets or no more microsoft, apple phones, or Google for you’. We are not as far as you think from that scenario
NearABE@reddit
They can be replaced quickly and easily. Yes, people would be mad about loss of service. That leads to making the alternatives work.
OneMonk@reddit
So allnon us mobile tech, windows as a tech stack (a OS, office, cloud database), all social media… Can be replaced quickly and easily… When there are no alternatives to most. Huge replacement cost where there is. Moving suppliers for business could take a year or more and be hugely disruptive. You are mixing in a fantasy world.
NearABE@reddit
A huge disruption with severe emotional pain, yes. Comparable to fighting a war, not really, no.
OneMonk@reddit
What are you babbling on about? It isn’t emotional pain, Trump could cripple the EU by turning tech taps off. He could threaten current leaders (if he isnt already) to install his own puppets. The Iran war is helping him cull the uncooperative generals, once they are gone he’ll turn the army on his own people to control America, just you watch.
I sincerely hope you didn’t vote for Trump, but you are sounding like you did.
NearABE@reddit
If the army is involved then we are not talking about tech vapor. This just popped up in my feed: https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/s/WzoC2CNR8h. I have not read the linked articles yet.
POTUS has ICBMs and aircraft carrier battle groups. He could completely flatten, let’s say Dublin, and cause many survivors to die horribly from radiation poisoning. The choice of going down that road is a one way trip. Trump and his cronies are surrounded by people who can kill them. Trumps inner circle could, at any time, remove him via the 25th amendment. A Secret Service agent could also just execute him on the spot. Trump, unfortunately, has extreme levels of power and is doing extreme amounts of damage. However there are still many types of limitations.
OneMonk@reddit
Flattening is different to sanctioning technology, that you are comparing the two is odd. Of course Europe is moving away from the US, because the US is behaving like a lunatic with a loaded gun, that keeps pointing that gun at their friends. Doing that overnight would be different. I’m not really sure what point you are trying to make.
NearABE@reddit
You were claiming that USA could replace European leaders by weaponizing internet communication lines. I claim that overt use of a weapon, any weapon, will cause the targeted population to rally behind their leadership.
USA has done (and continues to do) this sort of thing in the western hemisphere. We would need to first cause political isolation. Like “we are bullying the Irish but only because they clearly deserve it”. The Irish might still rally behind their government anyway but now they have to figure it out alone. This is much more work per capita. It compounds when some Irish exercise their European status and go take jobs on the continent. Cutting all of Europe off means they find fixes more than 20x faster. The replacement companies become their own valuable industry. Europeans would easily stay angry long enough for there to be no motive for reconnecting the old networks.
China and India might step in to support the European tech transition too. They would be watching. Quite a bit of the technology companies that are nominally headquartered in western USA are employing engineers physically located in India. A few says ago Oracle fired 30,000 of them for example. We could ask “where would Europe find software engineers on short notice?” Of course scalping engineers from US tech companies means offering them better pay and benefits. That causes tech products to cost a bit more. Not a choice Europeans will like making but certainly one they can definitely do if they are aggressively forced to make that choice.
Voters are highly unlikely to overthrow their governments and install the stooges that an aggressor suggests.
OneMonk@reddit
Read what I wrote, I said they could. Microsoft already froze the emails and office software of the ICJ because they went against the US on Israel. France is divesting from Microsoft for government for exactly this reason.
America is actively pushing far right candidates, Farrage, AfD in Germany, Trump and his cabal like Elon are actively promoting these far right parties and speaking at their events. They seem to be doing a pretty good job. There were tens of thousands of people cheering Musk on during a rally where he told a bunch of white brits to overthrow the government. Farrage was leading the polls in the UK, although his star is fading.
We live in a new reality, where social media can programatically rebuild how individuals see the world. The owners of these social platforms are beholden to and collaborating directly with the Trump administration. Propaganda tapped into the most addictive and entertaining thing humans have ever built, in every country in Europe. People are addicted, dependent.
If you don’t think all social media being switched off wouldn’t create a sudden frenzy and panic among the most addicted I don’t know what to tell you. People were beating each other over toilet paper during covid, what if every business couldn’t send emails, every social media account was locked overnight.
Anxious_Katz@reddit
Instant popularity in most European nations if they do this. This issue is literally a 80/20 split. Every day it's getting more toxic to have relations with Israel.
historicusXIII@reddit
And yet Europeans continue to vote in favour of pro-Israel parties and punish parties that dare to take a pro-Palestinian stance.
Fuzzy9770@reddit
I suppose propaganda is strong. Especially in Germany and the UK.
Freenore@reddit
I think there's a significant gap between what the politicians and the public believe.
The politicians are still stuck in a world where people haven't seen through Israel's falsehoods, whereas the public is getting increasingly hostile to the idea of their country supporting a genocidal, Apartheid state.
Belerophon17@reddit
According to reports from Declassified UK, over 180 UK MPs (around a quarter) have accepted funding, travel, or hospitality from pro-Israel lobby groups or individuals, totaling over £1.2 million, with some delegations jointly funded by the Israeli Foreign Ministry. This funding often involves trips to Israel, particularly through groups like Conservative Friends of Israel (CFI) and Labour Friends of Israel (LFI), aimed at fostering ties.
Politicians aren't just naively not noticing. They're being paid or rewarded in some way. Israel is big on that. Just look at AIPAC in the US.
Fuzzy9770@reddit
Imagine your country being sold out for 1.2m, lol
NearABE@reddit
Politicians live with the reality of getting assassinated by Mossad. Both the literal bullet method or just character assassinated. It has worked for a long time but that could flip rapidly once the public gets annoyed enough.
Trollimperator@reddit
Pretty naive view.
Its not like there are alot of ships carrying spanish flags or sailors. Not that this would matter, as any nations ship could carry oil anywhere. The USA could hire a chinese crew and ship, pay the toll and they would get shipped oil from Iran directly. So stop this bullshit a la "just give in to the dictatorships demands and you dont have any problems doing business in a warzone"-bullshit.
This conflict will leave its mark on the worlds economy and there is very little any one nation, besides the ones involved in the conflict, can do to avoid it. It hits neutral states in Asia the most, so the notion, that Spain would gain by becoming "neutral" is just stupid.
historicusXIII@reddit
Various Asian countries have negotiated deals with Iran to sail past the Hormuz Street. These include India (moderatly pro-Israel) as well as Thailand and the Philippines (soft US allies). It are the strong US-allies like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan that haven't made a deal with Iran yet.
Trollimperator@reddit
So, what happened is, that some few tankers get through. They go to the iranian tollgate, pay the 2million and pass.
But, if you look at the overall traffic passing the strait, most vessels still dont travel through the strait.
There where 3 tankers leaving the Golf at 03.30.26. Those would have paid toll/ransom so it makes no sense to believe, they would turn thier transponder off(and become a target again). Also there are even less tankers entering the Golf.
At average there were around ~100 tankers needed to transport the 20million barrels producted in the Golf every day. This argument, that tankers travel the strait is mostly wrong. Trump said something about 20-30 tankers each day. And instantly everyone answered his bullshit numbers with "those are chinese and indian". While the matter of fact is, that barely any vessels leave the Golf and those which do, most likely pay the ransom to finally get out(they run out of fuel, water and food there). This isnt sustainable trade, there are almost no tankers replacing the ones in the Golf(for very good reasons).
Id argue, the negotiation with Iran about tankers leaving is mostly comparable to paying ransom to be able to move again. Its far from, tanker-companies would consider this in remotely normal price settings. So you can expect, that if the situation stays as it is, the trade will slow down, not increase. Since almost noone will send new tankers to get ransomed/endangered, if they dont get a high premium.
photochadsupremacist@reddit
The countries that have economically ruined Iran by imposing sanctions are feeling a very tiny fraction of what Iran had to go through and they can't take it already. Pathetic.
And of course, they prioritise their trade with the genocidal apartheid state over the wishes of their own citizens and basic decent morality.
Trollimperator@reddit
Iran didnt need help to ruin itself. The regime can do this on thier own. If you like the dictatorship there so much, go live there.
Shane-8300@reddit
If you like being an american vassal so much go live there
Trollimperator@reddit
But, vassals live in thier vassalstate already. Are you dumb? Where do you think i live?
Freenore@reddit
That also requires separating yourself from U.S. and Israel, something most of the world, especially the West, has found really difficult to do even after it has become blatantly obvious that Israel is committing a genocide.
I think a big reason why things look so bleak is because few countries are willing to take a stand against U S. if needs be, and there's no firm initiative to come up with something that doesn't involve U.S.
The liberals and conservatives were pleasantly surprised that it needed Carney, the Canadian PM, to invoke Gaullism as he called for a new world order. Months later, there's no further news on that; nor do Britain or France seem keen to shape the future.
SkorpioSound@reddit
I think a lot of these countries are separating themselves from the US, but they're hesitant to 'rip the bandage off' and have to deal with whatever insane retaliations the US would throw their way. Instead, they're doing it slowly; not renewing deals, partnering with other countries when before they would have happily partnered with the US, looking for "supply line security" and independence, and so on. So you won't see any headlines reading, "Britain/France/etc severs all ties with US", but if you compare US relationships at the start of 2025 to how they'll be at the start of 2035, I expect you'll find them somewhat diminished.
This is partly because some politicians don't want to rock the boat, of course; many of them are desperately clinging onto the status quo. But I think a lot of them feel like it is in their countries' best interests to try to keep things stable and pull away from the US slowly rather than bring economic turmoil.
National politics play a huge part, too. The UK and France have their own brands of right-wing insanity that the incumbent governments are trying to stave off—and that's a pattern across many countries right now. So they're trying to avoid giving fuel to that movement; if they pulled away from the US and said, "it's for the best, but things will suck for five-to-ten years while we recover," that's just going to result in those right-wing parties being handed the next elections for free.
I loved seeing Carney stand up to the US, and I do agree with all the points he made. But Trump was already antagonistic towards Canada so it made sense for Carney to do that; that's not necessarily the case for every other country right now. I think Britain and France are looking to shape the future, but they're not looking to do it overnight.
chillichampion@reddit
A sane Indian. What a rare species on the Internet.
Zer_@reddit
It's difficult for Canada since our economies are so intertwined, but we are successfully pissing Trump off with our boycotts, so yay? I do wish we'd put a bit more effort into divesting though.
jcw99@reddit
Except they aren't. At the moment with the fractured parts of Iran acting independently nobody is safe to cross.
FRIENDLY_FBI_AGENT_@reddit
Well Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, Russian ships are passing thru
historicusXIII@reddit
Even soft US allies like Thailand and the Philippines have struck a deal.
OptimistPrime7@reddit
Only Pakistan is kind of an anomaly here, they still get supported by US but I guess since it is very transactional Iran is fine.
drakness110@reddit
Pakistan has simply not provided bases and intel and provided a small amount humanitarian aid. Thats it.
Iran wants these nations to not host American bases or intelligence which are used directly for attacking Iran.
OptimistPrime7@reddit
Oh I agree, I figured Pakistan had much greater friendship with US.
GR1ZZLYBEARZ@reddit
Pakistan couldn’t even find Bin Laden next to its version of the CIA headquarters.
Bitchcuits_and_Gayvy@reddit
And then when they finally sold him out, they scrapped that downed stealth helicopter and sold it to China lmao.
GR1ZZLYBEARZ@reddit
Yup lol 😂
Bitchcuits_and_Gayvy@reddit
You do have to respect the balls if anything.
Ilikeporkpie117@reddit
Iran attacked a Chinese ship a couple of days ago while it was sitting at anchor.
TomTomXD1234@reddit
Tell that to all the Chinese and Russian ships passing through fine
HockeyHocki@reddit
Citizens don't GAF about diplomatic grandstanding. For all the noise Spain continue to spend millions with Israel because they are heavily dependent on their tech
And in anyway nobody is breaking ties to appease Iranians lmao
Stubbs94@reddit
Everyone should break ties with Israel. No different to everyone breaking diplomatic ties with Apartheid South Africa.
HockeyHocki@reddit
Ironic you mention South Africa, one of the Iranian regimes few remaining allies, at least at governmental level that is
https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/politics/ranian-community-in-south-africa-confronts-pretoria-calls-for-iran-to-be-freed-from-tyranny
Stubbs94@reddit
A bit of a difference to modern day South Africa and fucking Apartheid South Africa (whose Apartheid police, Israel supported and trained). I'm sure you would be defending the Apartheid too back then, given how much you defend Israeli apartheid.
HockeyHocki@reddit
This crap again. Given how much you defend child abusers why should anybody listen to a single word you say
Stubbs94@reddit
What child abusers do I defend?
Shane-8300@reddit
If he was pro child abuse he'd have Israeli citizenship
BufferUnderpants@reddit
The country you're an otaku of was helping its fellow apartheid state build a nuclear bomb.
Shane-8300@reddit
Cool, have fun paying out the nose for everything then to please Amerisrael lmao
HockeyHocki@reddit
You had a NI flair on here two week ago now apparently you're a very anti-Israel Israeli🤣
bradicality@reddit
When boomers type 🤣 they are angrier than they've ever been
Shane-8300@reddit
I'm not anti Israel I love Israel
FederalSandwich1854@reddit
Well then enjoy the gas prices?
RedTulkas@reddit
many in SE Asia will if thats the choice
one is a nice to have, the other is esssential
Rickenbacker69@reddit
This is what we should have done many years ago, it's embarrassing that Iran has to be the catalyst.
Silver_Middle_7240@reddit
Thats vlclear now, but remember that Iran is a Russian ally. When it comes to it, allowing them to control access to the strait means Russia controls Europe's access to energy
sentrux@reddit
Iran and Russians are not formally an ally. They help eachother because they are in the same boat. If you call this an alliance you can call the one with your president and Putin one too.
Chipay@reddit
You should take another look at where Europe is importing its energy from.
grogi81@reddit
Iran is Russian ally because they were pushed into that position by constant barraging from the US.
happybaby00@reddit
Eh they also took land from them during the Russian empire days.
They became allies to keep in touch with Azerbaijan since shiism is very closely connected.
photochadsupremacist@reddit
Nothing the US, Europe and Israel love more than crying over the consequences of their own actions. They destroy countries all over the world without a second thought yet will cry over the smallest inconvenences that result from said destruction.
_Kiith_Naabal_@reddit
If this war is helping Russia, this mean that it will be pretty easily for EU to take measures against such act. I wonder why is it taking so long...
photochadsupremacist@reddit
Sounds like the US shouldn't have started the war and like the UK and Europe shouldn't be supporting the war.
Green_Rays@reddit
Iran said they want the recognition of their sovereignty over the strait, the lifting of international sanctions and security guarantees.
Are these western aligned countries ready to consider any of these options and facilitate negotiations? Maybe they will compromise on the security guarantees if you give them the first two demands?
Since no country is willing to open it by force as Iran can sink the extremely expensive ships with cheap missiles, mines and drones, I do not see any other option than stalling or negotiating.
bachh2@reddit
They are more likely to intervene militarily rather than accepting those demands tbh.
Anxious_Katz@reddit
Then they can get ready to be humiliated just as the Americans and Israeli are right now.
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
I wouldn't go so fast to say that.
Even Iran had to lower its restriction on who goes past the Strait.
cursedbones@reddit
That was a political demonstration. They want to show the world you can go through the Strait if you don't support Israel-US war.
That way they gave countries an exit to not enter the war.
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
And think what would happen if they didn't.
RedTulkas@reddit
they didnt have to, but its incredibly benefitial to their position to do so
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
And the opposite wouldn't be won't it?
RedTulkas@reddit
It gives them an in with states like the Philippines and Malaysia
Hell, even their relationship with Pakistan gets strengthened
redridingoops@reddit
No, they are isolated regardless, so using whatever leverage they have to weaken Israeli/US international support is probably better.
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
Iran isn't as isolated at it seems.
There's a complete blindspot to the north(Caspian Sea) and east(Afghanistan and Pakistan) that sanctions cannot be enforced.
redridingoops@reddit
I mostly meant economically/diplomatically isolated on the international stage.
This pretty much, leverage might not the the best word because only Trump has the best words, but you got the gist of the idea :)
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
It is still not diplomatically or economically isolated
Iran is could very much recover from its poor state if it actually focused on development than the war by trading with China, Russia, and neighboring states who couldn't care less what sanctions are there.
Lucius_Furius@reddit
EU navies can escort convoys, they have the capability. Nobody fucking wants to and I hope they just cut a deal with Iran to use the strait.
InfoNazi@reddit
If the US Navy can't escort ships through the Strait, no other country will be able to. In what world does Europe have the capability and or the political will to take part in a suicide mission?
NearABE@reddit
Europeans have minesweeper capability. The Iranians would still be able to attack. Iran would not be able to claim that was a mine intended for US shipping.
USA could escort a convoy but this is a war and that would become quite violent. Being sitting ducks with a slow moving convoy might be more dangerous than having marines temporarily capture the beach.
Lucius_Furius@reddit
Political will, heck no not in a million years.
Both the US and EU could escort, both have the capability to do so. The US does not want to as it is not in their interest to do so, and will cost lives and tie down a lot of ships.
The EU could, although it would be a clusterfuck as you would need to form up 3 navies at least to make it work but it would be politically untenable, costly and dangerous.
It’s cheaper to pay off Iran just as the Houthis got payed off by all involved parties than send military power to force the choke points open. There are only 6 large choke points in the world, Iran can threaten 2 of them. The others are either controlled or close by to major powers (Bosporus, Gibraltar, Suez, Panama), or are too far from any capable nation to threaten (Singapore and the surrounding area).
Could powers force the strait? Sure. Will they? Probably not, the only ones who could are EU, US and China, EU will pay, US does not care directly and China is an ally/happily pay.
InfoNazi@reddit
I don't think you understand that the only way the strait can be opened is through a ground invasion. Airstrikes and naval presence will never open the waterway. Also a coalition will never form because US + Israel are seen by the world as the aggressor. Noone wants to be involved in this quagmire especially Europe (E.g. The UK) as they have no missile defence systems.
A ground assault is basically an escalation trap which will result in Russia and Pakistan joining the war and China seizing the moment to take Taiwan. Literally a world war at that stage and most likely a nuclear war.
Lucius_Furius@reddit
We were talking about escorting. Could the EU take 10-20 ships and escort them through every 2-4 days? Sure. It would be dangerous and costly, but doable.
I agree that nobody wants to do that, but they can if they are forced. The volume of ships would be a lot less, and it would cost a fortune, as long as Iran charges a reasonable toll, nobody will try to force the strait.
grogi81@reddit
What does it mean to escort?
Drones can be launched from miles away and before the launches are detected, the militia groups have already moved away.
From the sea you cannot stop random occasional attacks. So - what's the point?
You need to physically control access to all the mountains in the area, close all roads to make sure nobody is smuggling a drone.
Lucius_Furius@reddit
Escort is convoying in this sense. Take 10-20 ships with 4-6 warships and air cover and rush through the straits.
Drones are not that dangerous to a large group of warships, as it was shown in the Red Sea. Both the French and the Danish have shot down dozens of them. Ammo cost an availability would be prohibitive, but can be done.
Asymmetric warfare is fine against the merchant ships, still decent against a frigate or destroyer, does not work against a battle group.
Anti-ship missiles would be threatening, but those are harder to hide and require complex kill chains to work.
If the EU is willing to take losses and underwrite the insurance for the tankers than they can do it. Not seeing the political will for it, but from a pure war game perspective the task is doable.
historicusXIII@reddit
Have you witnessed what Ukrainian drones managed against the Russian Black Sea fleet?
RedTulkas@reddit
Drones are incredibly dangerous to large, slow tankers though
and thats if those tankers even accept the conditions
InfoNazi@reddit
Yes that is what I wrote about. You have to stop the missiles and drones from coming in. The only way that happens is a ground invasion to create a land buffer zone.
As I discussed in my previous comment that will never happen as it will be too costly and fall into Iran's escalation trap.
Lucius_Furius@reddit
Agreed. Iran is the last source of readily available oil for China (Russia has logistical issues and smoking accidents).
Tinfoil hat on
I think the US will provoke a war with China in the next 2-5 years as the only way they can avoid or at least prolong their fall is to be the sole superpower. They know the only credible threat is China, and the window where they reach parity is closing very quickly.
With Venezuela gone the only large supplier for China is Iran, and their industry needs the oil to function, as well as the gas and fertiliser from the Gulf in a broad sense.
They have anywhere from 4-12 months of reserve for the military, depending on who you believe and enough domestic production to make the country function at a bare minimum but not anywhere close to industry.
Tinfoil hat off.
InfoNazi@reddit
I don't think that's much of a conspiracy to be honest. Everything the USA has been doing the last 6 years has born to slow China's rise. Whether banning them from modern chips, hiking tariffs on their automakers, banning Chinese tech firms from operating in the US and literally invading countries that are massive oil suppliers.
The Iran war has 2 different end goals. USA's ambition is to stop the rise of China via severing their oil supply chain. Israel's ambition is to have no regional adversary to stop them from their greater Israel project.
TearOpenTheVault@reddit
That would require Iran to fire upon countries it’s not at war with, which would be just a little bit of an escalation.
chillichampion@reddit
They’re in an existential war. They’ll definitely do it.
historicusXIII@reddit
Let the US Navy sail into the Persian Gulf first, we will watch.
RedTulkas@reddit
in theory, yes
in praxis, hell no - there is no political or economic will
just the amount of time it would take to set up these hostile escort missions is far too long, not even speaking about the costs
Call_Me_Clark@reddit
They could, but if Iran sends missiles and drones per ship, the naval escort has to block 100% of them. Iran only has to get one or two hits.
Dvine24hr@reddit
More people have died in Chicago during this war than Americans and Israelis combined
NearABE@reddit
Most countries do not have sanctions on most other countries. In general governments are eagerly working to increase global trade.
I am not aware of any country challenging US sovereignty in the Florida Keys. USA and Canada claim full control of Lake Superior but no one questions it. Panama and Egypt charge passing ships for canal access. Turkey claims the Bosphorus as internal waterway despite being two salt water bodies at sea level with open flow. Kerch is definitely a hit topic but only because people are supporting Crimea as part of Ukraine. No one is suggesting , for example, that Brazilian merchant ships have a right to demand access to Mariupol while Brazil is at war with either Ukraine or Russia.
Of course the Sea of Azov is much different from the Persian Gulf and Brazil is not fighting Ukraine. There is no difference in the fundamentals though. The British deliberately broke up the Ottoman Empire in such a way that it would be harder for the locals to control their own waterway.
Green_Rays@reddit
Yeah, so nobody will act until economic disaster takes place.
Conflictingview@reddit
Until? It's already happened. This whole thing is like an earthquake that happened far away. now everyone is looking at the shore, wondering why the water is receding and not realizing a tsunami is coming.
BAKREPITO@reddit
It's like the earthquake is still ongoing. We haven't even seen the end o the earthquke yet, let alone the tsunami.
Green_Rays@reddit
I agree. But things can get worse if it remains closed for months from now.
elihu@reddit
...or years. Which is a real possibility.
Green_Rays@reddit
Yikes
GrowingHeadache@reddit
Just let us be in denial for just a bit longer please
RetardedGaming@reddit
They can't do jacksh*t militarily, the majority of NATO countries can't even get their boats to the region without first having to pass the Houthi vibe check
Azurmuth@reddit
Iran doesn't have sovereignty over the strait. Firstly, the strait is split between Iran, Oman, and the UAE. And secondly straits are international waterways and the closing is in violation of international law. Neutral vessels have the right to transit straits regardless of whether there is a conflict or not.
RedTulkas@reddit
nice "right to transit" says the shahed drone
as currently seen, iran very much can exercise sovereignty over the straight
Azurmuth@reddit
De facto? Yes. De jure? No. Both customary international law and UNCLOS, of which iran is a signatory agrees that straits are international waterways and its illegal to close them for neutral shipping.
Your argument reads to me like saying "murder can't be unlawful, I just killed someone". An act being illegal doesn't make it impossible to do.
RedTulkas@reddit
being attacked by other countries is also illegal
and nobody is helping them, while at the same time by "defeating" the US and israel they show that no power can dislodge them.
and if they get oman into the boat, its their strait to do with
Azurmuth@reddit
and? If im being attacked would that mean im allowed to bomb your house?
And in response to being attacked Iran decided to bomb 10 countries that weren't involved. Given that Oman was one of those countries, and had even called the attack on Iran illegal, i highly doubt they would collaborate with Iran.
Paradoxjjw@reddit
If I bomb your house why should I get to cry foul when you bomb mine?
Azurmuth@reddit
What?
Paradoxjjw@reddit
Did no-one ever teach you to ask what part you want clarified when you're confused about something?
Azurmuth@reddit
The entire comment. I don't understand what you're trying to say
Paradoxjjw@reddit
It's not exactly a difficult sentence, so I struggle to understand what part is so confusing to you and I don't see how explaining anything to you would do anything if this was already beyond your capacity.
Azurmuth@reddit
Who is supposed to be "I" and "yours"?
Paradoxjjw@reddit
How is that what confuses you? Did I break some AI script of yours?
Azurmuth@reddit
No. I'm confused because the "your" in my comment meant uninvolved third parties. So I don't understand who you are talking about.
Paradoxjjw@reddit
"uninvolved third parties" being countries actively allowing the US to use their country to wage war against Iran and thus making themselves involved parties.
RedTulkas@reddit
If one of your attackers was living in my house you might
They looked at Israel's Samson Doctrine and realized they could do something similar, and as we see it gave them enormous amounts of leverage in a militarily unwinnable war
Oman stands to gain a bunch of money by cooperating with Iran on the strait toll ( https://www.wionews.com/photos/iran-and-oman-draft-protocol-to-monitor-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-reports-1775144034617/1775144034618 )
historicusXIII@reddit
Welcome to a new world order.
mmbon@reddit
De facto you are right, but de jure its an international waterway and iran cannot legally collect a toll. Whats next, tolls for denmark straits, spain getting a toll for gibraltar strait, what about malacca, helespont and so on, it would only make life more expensive for everyone. So they definitly should not bow to sovereignty demands.
RedTulkas@reddit
for europe? maybe
for SE Asia? When your weeks away from an unprecedented energy crisis thats a minor price to pay
Fearless-Feature-830@reddit
Oh you sweet summer child
Aenjeprekemaluci@reddit
I doubt there will be negotiations. When sanctions fail to get a strategic objective done for Western alligned forces, usually covert operations follow to undermine these countries and if that fails, direct military option.
iVladi@reddit
We're all for international rules based orders until we don't our way
I notice that phrase is not being used this year
Czart@reddit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz#Navigation
Rules like UNCLOS? I have a strange feeling that it's not being used because nobody expects iran to actually respect it.
iVladi@reddit
They were respecting it just fine until they were illegally attacked
Czart@reddit
Okay, if poland got illegally attacked too, do we get to shoot at random ships in the baltic?
Paradoxjjw@reddit
Ukraine is shooting at ships aligned with their enemies, why can't Iran?
Czart@reddit
https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/03/23/iran-deliberate-attacks-on-civilian-ships-apparent-war-crimes
I see we're at "war crimes are fine actually" stage of geopolitics.
Paradoxjjw@reddit
Lmao, you want to get into that territory while you 're talking about Israel and America?
Czart@reddit
Ah, war crimes cancel each other out. Good to know.
Paradoxjjw@reddit
Honey, you have no issues with American and Israeli warcimes, don't pretend you give a shit about warcrimes. You only care who is doing them, you're just concern trolling rather than actually being concerned.
Czart@reddit
No, i'm actually rather not fine with those war crimes. So you can keep your shitty projection to yourself
Paradoxjjw@reddit
You know that I can see you gloating about US crimes against humanity on this sub not even a week ago right?
Czart@reddit
Embargo isn't a crime against humanity. Neither is a blockade, unless you start firing on civilian vessels, which burgers haven't done so far.
Paradoxjjw@reddit
The US embargo is one, but you won't ever admit it because you love it when the US does all the things you criticise other countries for.
Paradoxjjw@reddit
Here's you gloating about some of the US' crimes against humanity in another comment. You are not just fine with them, you fucking love it when America and Israel do them.
ChillAhriman@reddit
If Poland was out of NATO, diplomatically isolated, defending itself against Russian agression as they bomb Polish civilians and energy infrastructure and murder their politicians and diplomats, and you had the option to sink every single ship in the Baltic in order to screw with the Russian economy for relatively few consequences, I guarantee you (as in your country) you would it.
Czart@reddit
And i'd still consider it a war crime. And lets not forget that the person i responded to was whining about no one talking about rules. Now that i mentioned them everyone is up my ass how it's actually fine they're ignoring the rules. Pick a fucking struggle.
kapsama@reddit
If the ships are owned by the countries attacking you of course. Ukraine is hunting down Russian civilian shipping all across the world. Who's crying about it except Russia?
iVladi@reddit
If you are as tump said, being bombed into the stone age, and your children are dying, and your chances of winning on the battlefield is 0, then yes, hit them where it hurts.
You're pretending their strategy is some random crazy nonsense attacks, when with a bunch of words and 20k usd drones they beat the strongest empire on the planet.
Their response has been measured, appropriate, and fair given the situation.
Czart@reddit
-
Which one is it? Because right now its not USA that is suffering, it's other nations that are facing fuel shortages. Also it's absolutely hilarious that you complain about no one talking about "rules" and then you say that if you're losing hard enough rules don't matter. Pick a side buddy.
I have zero problem with them blasting burger and israeli military in the region. I do have a problem with them shooting at innocent civilian vessels.
Fearless-Feature-830@reddit
Why would they when no one else does?
Czart@reddit
"No one else" and it's just you burgers and israel.
Fearless-Feature-830@reddit
Don’t forget Russia
Czart@reddit
Right, just a bunch of most upstanding members of international community we should all aspire to be...
chillichampion@reddit
And Poland which participated in the illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq. It is a much better moral actor.
Czart@reddit
okay "europe" flair, back to the trenches now.
JoBoltaHaiWoHotaHai@reddit
Yes, because other countries are bravely standing up against US and Israel
Czart@reddit
Feel free to embargo them.
BAKREPITO@reddit
Iran isn't a signatory of UNCLOS, is international law now applicable to nonsignatories? The US doesn't sign on several human rights treaties precisely for this reason.
Czart@reddit
Paragraph later.
BAKREPITO@reddit
Signatory, not ratified. Already the first sentence of my post.
Green_Rays@reddit
I have no doubt everybody will stall to see if the CIA and friends can do something. But I am not so sure that will succeed.
Counting on covert operations to save us from economic catastrophe seems extremely risky to me. I hope wiser heads will prevail, and some negotiations take place to allow oil to flow.
But indeed, history teaches us you are right.
Aenjeprekemaluci@reddit
My point is, covert ops failed thats why a kinetic war is waged. But i do agree what you wrote. It will not succeed....
usefulidiotsavant@reddit
"Sovereignty over the strait"? The straight of Hormuz encompasses the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, and has the legal standing of an international waterway under UNCLOS.
Even if Iran is not a member of UNCLOS, under customary maritime laws it has no right to fully close the straight, let alone claim sovereignty. Even completely denying passage to vessels in Iran's territorial waters would still allow the straight to function in a degraded capacity with ships hugging the Oman side, Oman being an UNCLOS party.
Iran does this because it can, not because it has the right to do it.
ChillAhriman@reddit
Iran is breaking international law in response to the US and Israel systematically breaking international law to attack them and seeing that they suffered NO consequences for it.
Trying to punish Iran over this when we've done nothing about the US is applying a double standard that will only serve to make other countries further realize that we're only trying to apply international law to the benefit of some actors.
The current situation is terrible, but joining this retarded aggression will only make things worse, both in the short and the long run. The best option Europe has is waiting it out until there are more rational actors leading the US, then try and look for a diplomatic solution where Iran willingly returns to international law in return for reparations.
azure_beauty@reddit
The UK just wanted the world to recognize their sovereignty over the Suez canal. If anything, that claim had more legal legitimacy than Iran now.
Green_Rays@reddit
Lol said by someone from the country with the most legitimate claims
MarderFucher@reddit
I don't know why the discource centers on the West which depends much less on Gulf exports in terms of supply than Asia where there's already serious shortages hitting. If anyone, it should be China, India, Pakistan, Jaoan, Korea, Indonesia etc. that should lead the talks.
RedTulkas@reddit
PAkistan, China, India and the Philippines are way ahead and already cleared it with the iranians
Green_Rays@reddit
Oil is a global commodity. A supply crisis in one side of the world will cause oil prices to rise globally.
Moreover, having many countries in the world experience economic depression will have dramatic effects that we will feel in Europe as well. Those countries are markets to many of our exports, and are in the supply chain of many of our imports.
We are not as insulated as you think we are.
salzbergwerke@reddit
No the great USA of all times produces their own oil, the best in the world, everybody is saying it, and Venezuela's and doesn't need the Strait and so is unaffected.
Freethecrafts@reddit
US eventually deploys anti mines and kills anyone near the area. Negotiations aren’t much of an option after killing off the leadership multiple times.
Stromovik@reddit
there are no anti mines , you can try to minesweep but that is a death sentence in such narrow waters.
Freethecrafts@reddit
Any munition is an antimine in large enough numbers. Even without purchasing more advanced tech or borrowing an actual demining ship, depth charges, explosives, and artillery would do just fine.
Like you said, narrow waters. Tell me the orange man wouldn’t nuke the strait to get rid of mines.
So, few options without negotiating. First is kill everyone. Second is kill anyone local. Third is kill anyone who goes near the waterways. The rest is a bunch of explosion enthusiasts deciding how much it would take to get rid of whatever is already there.
Again, just taking over the allowable waterway that has traffic right now is the easy option.
Stromovik@reddit
Depth charges will work , artillery wont work against anything at some depth.
We live in a world full of constraints like time and money.
Nuking the straight will require hundreds of warheads and will devastated all the coastal towns and cities in the region.
This isn't shooting yourself in the foot , it is unloading a whole magazine from a shotgun
Freethecrafts@reddit
Lots of large artillery. It’s not about breaking them, it’s about triggering them.
The two hundred billion dollar kind of money could fill in the strait.
The posturing is over trying to get the US Navy to deploy within range of silk missiles before the US owns the coastlines.
US doesn’t have the old deminers because they’re nonsense in a world where MOAB and tacticals exist. If you can flatten a valley, you can set off some mines.
Green_Rays@reddit
They should hire geniuses like you at the Pentagon
Provodniik@reddit
They already have Pete, so it will be a challenge to achieve that.
Freethecrafts@reddit
I’m not advocating for it. I’m saying it’s the likeliest actions to be taken by a military with no qualms. Iran is on a runout timetable.
In order to make the play that some but not others, they can’t mine all of it. The rest is just territory that hasn’t been bombed into nothing. Israel will keep pushing that envelope because having no rivals is the goal, not friendly nations.
PartySr@reddit
Now the world has to clean up the mess that was made by the pedophiles from US and the trashes from Israel. They freed the Iranian people by destroying their country.
Yo, Israel citizens and all the rest of the Zionists. Where did you all go? Weren't you yelling that you want to free the Iranian people?
photochadsupremacist@reddit
Come on, don't sell Israel and the US short. Israeli leaders are also pedophiles and US leaders are also rapists.
redridingoops@reddit
You're right, they should stop focusing on their differences and focus on what brings them together <3
philopsilopher@reddit
Between bombing kids and fucking kids I don't know where they find the time to be human.
redridingoops@reddit
They clearly outsourced that part, just look at the difference between their discourse on foreign vs domestic media.
Rest of the world ? Self-defense, right to exist, woe is me...
Israeli TV ? Lebensraum, final solution, death penalty, greater Israel...
travistravis@reddit
They're busy stealing Lebanon
PartySr@reddit
Oh, yeah. I forgot about that. The activity of the accounts who were spreading Israeli propaganda dropped hard since they started to ethnically cleanse Southern Lebanon.
Eexoduis@reddit
Stop throwing words like that around
chillichampion@reddit
Like what?
Eexoduis@reddit
Like ethnic cleansing. It is not a cheap win argument buzzword. It is sacred.
chillichampion@reddit
Isn’t Israel trying to make Shia Muslims leave southern Lebanon while not touching the Christians and Druze? Wtf do you call that?
bradicality@reddit
or what
Eexoduis@reddit
Or the next time the boy cries wolf no one will believe him
FudgeAtron@reddit
It's Pesach, you know the second most important holiday, everyone is celebrating.
Eldiablo2471@reddit
Free them from the stress and burdains of life by killing them. Mark my words, the Iranians will accelerate their nuclear program even more after or during this war. This attack just proved, like with Ukraine, that not having nuclear weapons makes you a target for countries that do, much like bullying where the bigger guy bullies the smaller person.
Virtual-Pension-991@reddit
World has to clean up? Boy, if we were so responsible this war wouldn't happen in the first place.
Lovescrossdrilling@reddit
Tell the US to stop their illegal campaign , Put sanctions against the terrorist state that is Israel and the strait might be up and running again.
Who am i kidding the Iranians would be stupid to let things return to how it used to be.
I'm by no means an expert of any kind in these discussions im just stating my opininons but it still baffles me how the Strait was open for business with no tolls or relatively lower tolls than the Suez & Panama canals.I've read conflicting reports that they didn't charge anything , or that they charged 0.02-0.05% of a ship's cargo value but i can't find any citation on that.If anyone does have proof or articles surrounding it i'd be glad to read up on it.
Rulweylan@reddit
And what do we do when Israel starts blowing up shipping and demands we sanction Iran?
REKTGET3162@reddit
Stop supplying weapons to Israel
tmfink10@reddit
I don’t know that we want to set the precedent that tolls need to be paid anytime someone could sink your ship but chooses not to. The strait is different from the canals in that it wasn’t built and it’s not maintained. This is a natural waterway, it’s just relatively narrow. They aren’t providing a service, so the toll would be a fee to not be attacked, which is sanctioned piracy.
All the rest is popular here in the US too. Most of us are tired of the tail wagging the dog. Most of us think this attack was illegal and not in our best interests. Most of us can’t wait for the midterm elections in November. Most of us are also worried that the administration is going to try to skew the results because they know how unpopular they are. They’re arguing for it in the supreme court right now.
RedTulkas@reddit
Turkey is tolling the bosphorus too
tmfink10@reddit
There are some notable differences between the straits though. One is entirely within a country (and runs through a city), the other has international water between two territorial waters of two sovereign nations on either side. That is a function of one being less than a km wide at its narrowest vs almost 40 km for the other. The point is taken though that a strait exists where a nation charges a toll. I guess my point was more that the ability to sink a ship should not give one the ability to charge a toll to refrain from doing so.
RedTulkas@reddit
afaik oman is gonna be involved in the toll in some way too (legal framework and a cut)
so it being 2 countries makes effectively no difference is both are in on it
and even in your point "should" does a lot if heavy lifting, cause in effect unless someone wants to go to war over it it does
tmfink10@reddit
I mean… that’s kind of where we’re at, no?
RedTulkas@reddit
always have been
hell the US is keeping others from shipping to cuba for decades
saracenraider@reddit
There’s a huge difference between the strait and the Suez and Panama canals: the canals are man-made and carefully managed and need maintenance, while the strait is a natural geographic feature. I suspect there’s a small cost attached to the strait (managing the flow of ships) but aside from that it’s extremely simple relative to the canals. Should the British charge for the English channel or the Spanish/British for the strait of Gibraltar?
RedTulkas@reddit
or you know, the bosphorus were turkey is collecting a toll?
saracenraider@reddit
Yea, which works out to around $4,000 per ship (c. $200m in tolls for 50,000 ships in 2024) - which covers sanitary inspection, lighthouse, and rescue services. I don’t think anybody doubts that as being unreasonable and nobody would object to the strait of Hormuz having similar or a little bit higher - as I said before: I suspect there’s a small cost attached to the strait (managing the flow of ships) so I absolutely would expect a small toll there, but nothing compared to the Panama or Suez canals
RedTulkas@reddit
thats up to the dudes setting the tolls to decide no?
and as long as its not unreasonable nobody will even try to haggle
saracenraider@reddit
It’s also up to international maritime law and of course the strait of Hormuz is only half in Irans territorial waters.
Of course I wouldn’t blame them for ignoring international law given what has happened to them (not that they have really cared about international law either - no side in this conflict is the good guy)
Yea agreed but this is kinda veering away off topic - all I was doing was explaining to OP that the cost of maintaining a manmade structure such as the Panama or Suez Canal is far far higher than a natural strait, so it’s not unsurprising there is a vast difference in what you would typically expect to pay in tolls
RedTulkas@reddit
as far as i have read, oman is gonna get her cut and than their sovereignty is fully legal
Tangentkoala@reddit
We are entering fuck around and find out territory now.
Remind me in 3 years from now. Iran will set up a toll like Egypt did and Iran is going to get that much richer.
Wouldn't be surprised if Iran makes a deal with china and or russia to give them a piece of the pie for on sight protection.
This could easily add 10 billion dollars in yearly revenue to iran. Slice it up at a 60/40% and Russia, china and iran all win.
imunfair@reddit
It's funny how Trump says "jump" and the EU jumps, even after all that staunch refusal to participate in the war prior to his speech. He breaks the strait and says "it's your problem, come help take it militarily" and they convene to figure out a way to make such a ludicrous demand feasible, lol.
RedTulkas@reddit
so much talking and diplomacy, that all hinges on the fact that the Pedophile-In-Chief wont order his loyal thugs to start a ground invasion
or the genociding apartheid state starts bombing even more civilian infrastructure
that should be priority #1, deal with the aggressors
aembleton@reddit
Blocking oil flows will be good for reducing climate change. I'm surprised starmer is so keen to find a way through this when he's not willing to get drilling in the north Sea.
Worldly_Anybody_9219@reddit
Israel needs to have sanctions placed against it. It's a terrorist apartheid state.
GoyoMRG@reddit
This will be a fucking wild story to tell the grand kids and to write down on history.
"It all started with a group of pedophiles, mostly from the USA and one of them becoming president......."
PartySr@reddit
Fucking hell. Now the world has to clean up the mess that was made by the pedophiles from US and the trashes from Israel. They freed the Iranian people by destroying their country.
Yo, Israel citizens and all the rest of the Zionists. Where did you all go? Weren't you yelling that you want to free the Iranian people?