Just surviving leads to failure in the end.
Posted by Substantial-Page4704@reddit | preppers | View on Reddit | 91 comments
So over the years, and countless hours of driving or hiking or pulling guard, I have played the "what if" games countless times. The more I game a large-scale collapse scenario, the more I have realized that having enough for your family or friends, and that's it, isn't enough. Too many times in any gaming or analysis of real-life scenarios, I find that the prepared citizens are over taken by the unprepared citizens in the end. I find that anyone who is forced to defend themselves and their supplies tends to become the bad guy in the end. Whether this is because they don't have a leg to stand on because of what they had to do, or because they don't build a larger network of support. And if that doesn't happen, eventually you run out of supplies. Or let's say you have kids, like I do, what happens when those kids become adults? If there isn't a larger community around you, how do your kids function or have a future that is worth it? Dating, family, etc... I don't know about y'all but I'd like my kids to have a wider world to live in than just the mileage we can secure or that our small community can. Because of these, and many other what-ifs, I have shifted my long-term plan to focus less on "hunker down" or just "secure me and my own" and more on "how do I secure my family, neighbors, neighborhood, city, state, and country". That is a huge goal, to go from family and neighbors to country, but it leads to a better solution for my kids, I think. What are y'all's ideas about this? Also, if it ever happens and someone says, "hey, there's this crazy group of weirdos in Oklahoma doing the most," it's probably me and my boys drop by for some stories to swap, we'll throw on some beans and cobbler!
Visual-City-5978@reddit
how do I secure my ... city, state, and country
I mean yes, if you do this, you won't have the type of SHTF situations that will ruin your life. The only reason individualism and "tribe" centric thinking is prevalent or considered "normal" is probably because it's more convenient to larger powers and to the market. Even "build a community" is horrific advice compared to "prevent the disaster"
If you can completely avoid a bad situation then yeah, that makes more sense than arming yourself to the teeth to live through a bad situation but live traumatized by it forever. Ask anyone who's lived through war in their country
Hobobo2024@reddit
So what ideas have you come up with to make sure your neighbors are saved as well?
sisters area, ill be lucky if they prep for 1 month even. So what happens in terms of food after that month?
I 100% agree with you. Well, I think if I could afford an underground bunker for me and my family in a location close enough that we can get to but still not be found, I think that has the greatest odds for survival.
but I can't afford that so community to protect from attacks and thefts is 100% needed.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
My thought is to start with welfare checks. Knock on the door, hey how you doing? Need any help? We can spare some rice, we have a couple bandages, etc… nothing that would starve my kids. Then when something goes wrong offer help. A break in? Oh no, you and the jones’! The cops never showed up? Well here’s my number or how to get ahold of us. When/if things worsen start coordinating wellness patrols with able neighbors. Take stock of who can help with what. That leads into voluntary association. Push to get all the neighbors armed with at least a pistol and shotgun. (I think that also prevents and dictator kind of thing) I figure that you react to problems rather than try to prevent them. Sadly people are short sighted. A safety patrol and armed citizens won’t make sense to them until some houses get robbed. I try to have plans ready to react as problems occur. They aren’t always foolproof but they are something.
k8ecat@reddit
Read Nuclear War by Anne Jacobson. In a large scale nuclear war, most of humanity will be wiped out in ten minutes. Frightening but freeing.
Hobobo2024@reddit
why would most of humanity be wiped out in 10 minutrs? i thought most simulations dont show that at all. the first initial attack would still leave those outside of thr cities still alive. even within the cities, not everyone dies. it's after that when most in many parts of the world will die.
I saw one simulation result that showed what percent of people would still be alive in 2 years for different countries. 99% would be dead in the US and Eussia since we hold the most nuclear weapons and would no doubt be attacked. but in Australia and some other southern hemisphere countries, many were at nearly 100% survival. the expectation was they wouldn't be bombed at all or much since they don't have nuclear weapons and aren't as hated by those that do.
k8ecat@reddit
Apparently this book is now the gold standard on exactly what would happen. I didn't write or research it. I am telling you what it says.
Hobobo2024@reddit
So I read the books synopsis. It actually matches quite similarly to the simulations ive seen. Different countries shoot off the first nuclear weapon in all the nuclear simulations ive seen but it all ends the same. The countries with nuclear weapons are the ones that all end up getting blown up.
Even in your book according to wiki This leads to widespread famine for mankind, with survival only being possible in Southern Hemisphere countries like Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Argentina and Brazil.
The charts ive seen applied percentages to show almost everyone surviving in the southern hemisphere countries after 2 years. It doesnt go on beyond that timeframe.
Your book though talks about When the nuclear winter finally ends, the ozone layer, which has been heavily damaged by the war, has lost up to 65% of its shielding power. This leaves life on Earth largely unprotected from the Sun's ultraviolet rays, forcing humanity to live in underground shelters while diseases and insects from thawing corpses spread aboveground.
Im confused why we need to live in underground shelters. Is it the surface temps? Doesn't our buildings today protect from us already?
I dont think theres a difference between population decline in your book and the simulations. The simulations just go into more detail. 99% die in most of the countries that own nuclear weapons. Thats most people in the world dying.
But the southern hemisphere, shows most people living so if youre living in those other countries, you shouldn't just give up hope.
And I wouldnt take too much in that part about the ozone and underground shelters. We humans can grow things inside those shelters and we may be able to figure out some type of outfit or lotion we can wear to go abovegrouns sometime.
I actually live in one of the 99% die countries but im still not giving up hope. Not everyone will die right away. If youre not in the blast zones you wont.
You just need to figure out how to feed yourself and keep others from killing yoi long enough that hopefully the Australians will take pity on the survivors and come rescue us. Id say 2 years. They'll want most to die of starvation before doing anything I would think. So I gave it 2 years minimum.
k8ecat@reddit
You read "they synopsis?" LOL. Try reading the book. In every sample situation, the results are worldwide nuclear annihilation.
Hobobo2024@reddit
the wiki I looked at is only the synopsis of your book. The map I saw is actually cited in many legit sources.
I'll go look for it for you in a bit. Your basing your beliefs on a fictional book that you're interpreting a certain way which im not sure your interpretation is accurate. My assumptions are based on the actual data and analysis that fiction book is written based off of.
k8ecat@reddit
OMG dude - just give it up. LOL.
Hobobo2024@reddit
Youre spreading misinformation telling people just to give up cause we're all dead. This just needs to be corrected one cause its not guaranteed the estimates are right and 2 even the current estimates don't shoe ehst youre likely misinterpreting from the book.
k8ecat@reddit
You do you honey. I read the book. You didn't. Good bye.
nakedonmygoat@reddit
The Lykov family managed it, but their existence was grim and the line died out. The last surviving member is very old and is only still alive because of outside assistance.
The Pilgrims weren't alone for long. They got help from the natives, and another ship of settlers joined them in 1621, others after, giving the children ample choice of marriage partners, and bringing what assistance they could. The pioneers heading west might live alone on the prairie, but they still relied on nearby outposts and passing travelers for supplies they couldn't make themselves. When towns sprang up, guess where the kids went?
People have never done well for long without a community of some sort.
But the idea that hordes will pour out of the cities into the countryside is a bit silly. Anyone living in a city can just look around and know that very few of these people can trek out of a city on foot, let alone attack anyone once they get somewhere. You know what happened to the people who tried to flee Hurricane Rita in 2005? They ran out of gas, hadn't prepared at all, and over 100 died on the roadside of dehydration, along with their pets.
So the idea that the city-dwellers are going to head out on foot for 30+ miles is ludicrous. Cities have huge footprints. You have to go pretty far outside a city's exurbs to find a place that's truly remote. There may be a few here and there who can make it that far, but they'd probably be the best of the best, former backpackers and the like, the ones who could actually be useful if you say, "If you work, you can stay." And they'd be having to leave behind kids, parents, grandma, etc to get that far. Most people won't do that.
Hobobo2024@reddit
that interesting about the lykrov.
I guess we call it grim but they quite clearly wanted to keep living the way they did even though without modern medicine and sounds like the diet they chose to follow shortened their lives.
Worldly-Swing6921@reddit
Lmao, you really hate people in cities don't you?
Jesus.
JRHLowdown3@reddit
Wondering what she said that you think had anything to do with hate? Guessing you think this part-
Go spend an hour people watching at a Walmart and tell me this isn't correct. Watch how many have to use the rolling people sleds, how many are 100+ lbs. overweight or more, the ones that take 5 minutes teetering back and forth from the handicapped spot closest to the door to the entrance, then you'll see them with buggies full of junk food, pink hotdogs, white bread and Natty Lite. Meanwhile their 2 or 3 out of control crotch fruit run amuck or scream constantly.
I can tell you from experience in Hurricane Helene, those types SAT ON THEIR ASSES and did nothing for themselves. Many HID while we came down their road and cleared 60 year pines from in front of their rental houses- lazy AF. No help, no "damn, 3 men and a woman that aren't getting paid for this are out clearing OUR road and it's 100 degrees out, I'll bring them a water bottle." Nothing.
This type is a good portion of the Amerikan populace right now and it has nothing to do with age or ethnicity, it's got everything to do with being lazy asses..
That being said, will some make it out of the cities, sure, but they won't be "the hordes of city looters Wes has been promising us" (joke from the movie The Survivors, Robin Williams 1982, must view movie). But just because one is 2 1/2 hours from a decent sized city doesn't mean security isn't a concern, lot of low life types in the country as well- just not as many of them.
PackInevitable8185@reddit
I still think you and the original commenter are underestimating the city dwellers. Of course many of us will die in a true shit hit the fan scenario, but we have examples of truly horrific scenarios in history and people don’t just drop to the ground like mayflies.
The siege of Leningrad is one of the most horrific instances in living memory. The city was cut off from almost all supplies for almost 2.5 years, yet it looks like 2/3 of the people survived.
It probably would be pretty brutal in places like Phoenix and LA if the methods to get fresh water there are compromised. But I think it’s wishful thinking to think you would be insulated from societal collapse/widespread unrest/looting if you are 50 miles outside of Chicago.
Even if you make the ridiculous assumption and rule out the 50% that is obese that is still a lot of desperate, armed, able bodied adults roaming around. Oh yeah also humans are one of, if not the best land animals at covering large distances. I think many would be surprised at how many would be capable of walking 10, 15, or maybe even more in a day if they have enough water and are motivated by the prospect of their first meal in three days.
JRHLowdown3@reddit
Take a look at the last part of my reply-
Not sure what part of that sounds like I'm discounting them. The other part of my reply was adding on to to the OP's thoughts that few will be trekking on foot.
I wouldn't make posts that remind folks that everything starts and ends with security in mind if I thought simply being a few hours from major cities is all you need do to be safe.
Also keep in mind the folks that do travel out of the cities that are "are motivated by the prospect of their first meal in three days" are going to have a helluva lot of other opportunities closer to the cities and taking those chances there, will also be thinned out a bit more.
It's part of good planning to assume that -outside of local yocals- that groups of city refugees that make it say 100 miles or more are going to be more dangerous, as they would have had to do more than a few not so nice things already to have made it that far on foot. Which again leads us back to the "everything starts and ends with security as the #1 priority."
PackInevitable8185@reddit
Yeah fair, I guess I didn’t really understand your reply correctly.
I think the main issue I take is that when a lot of people talk about prepper scenarios they are framing it like it will look like the last of us or the walking dead. To me it’s completely unrealistic. Even in the absolute worst famines in human history a majority of the population survive. Maybe we are less equipped now to deal with it because we are not agrarian society anymore, but I don’t see it. Only thing that would be that bad I think is something like a nuclear winter or asteroid hit, in which case most preppers are probably dead too, just on a slightly longer timeline.
Again not saying you framed it that way, just talking in general.
JRHLowdown3@reddit
All good my friend, I think I know what you mean and there will definitely be survivors in the cities, no doubt about that. Will some make it out? Sure of course they will, even on foot. But MASSES of them? Likely not. I.e, that city of 30,000 people 45 minutes away, are you expecting 28,000 of them to head your way? No, that's stupid, But to expect 0 to make it is also stupid.
Also, all country folks are not "preppers" despite the stupid sayings here to the contrary... It's not the old days where everyone who lived in the country did so cause they wanted to homestead or farm. That ended about 100 years ago.... So this weird assumption here (not from you, but a couple tout it quite regularly) that "everyone in the country is prepared" is utter stupidity. How do I know? Common sense #1, #2 was seeing how idjits out here didn't have the most basic shittake during Helene. And certainly few could have made it long term.
Worldly-Swing6921@reddit
Lol, cities are bad durrrrrr.
This is you guys.
BlitzkriegBambi@reddit
Youre reading comprehension, emotional maturity or both are severely lacking my guy
Worldly-Swing6921@reddit
Lmao. Durrrr.
I'm tired of being polite to morons...
SwordsAfar@reddit
The Lykov family also could have survived longer, but coming into contact with "rescuers" hastened their demise.
madkaw99@reddit
Was today years old learning of this Lykov family
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
They are super interesting!
Alita-Gunnm@reddit
Packing away food and other supplies isn't a long term plan. It's a bridge to keep you going until you can rebuild a society. It doesn't have to be the same society you have now, just A society. Grow food, make medicines, band together for community defense, build houses, forge tools, etc.
Zerodyne_Sin@reddit
Pretty much this. There's no amount of prepping you can do that lasts forever and accounts for every situation. The billionaires are trying to do it with their luxury bunkers and I'm convinced they're just making caches for their head of security to seize when the time comes (or worse, it just gets forgotten or is otherwise wasted due to inaccessibility).
Their lack of skills and ability to cope with hard times would probably make any luxury bunkers they have built result in a glorified tomb (hey, maybe the pyramids originally were for luxury bunkers gone awry lol).
In any case, the supplies and food isn't the goal. It's skills and mental resilience to keep going, imo.
Monarc73@reddit
My favorite part about the 'luxury bunker' is that it runs on diesel fuel. Like, what?
There is a really good book called Zone One in which a 'Paris Hilton' type has a strong-hold, and her security goons all loot her right before departure. A bunker is only as good as your security profile.
This "Their lack of skills and ability to cope" is going to be the most telling, imho. (Pretty much all of the well-to-do people I know have ZERO ability to handle discomfort, let alone any actual distress.)
So, yes I agree that it is skills, resiliency, and flexibility that will be decisive, as well as the size and composition of the hoard itself that is going to matter.
Hobobo2024@reddit
you can set one up to run on wind or wood gasifiers.
IGnuGnat@reddit
Maybe I'm missing something, but my favorite part about a bunker is that it always needs an air supply.
InformationHorder@reddit
It makes far more sense to work with and try to improve the society we have so that it never has to collapse in the first place. That's true preparation: resilience.
Alita-Gunnm@reddit
Yes, if you can. There's very little I can do to affect the decisions of the Federal Government, however.
kyoshiro417@reddit
Security should be your top priority, because things can either be stolen or taken away. You can prepare for uncertain situations but you can prepare how you eill response PACE Plan. Second, should be shelter ans lastly food. All those things can take you from day it starts till it ends. Resourcefulness minsdet is your best asset, that will get you from having zero to having something. Skills come in had from communication, to food, shelter, security. Always remember there is always strength in numbers. Mindset is your most price possesion, because the moment you loose hope your dead. From depression or even suicide. So will to live should be on your mind and find ways to keep your spirits up and the reason your living. End scenario is always hard and is going to be more hard to live it. But like I say is better to be prepared somewhat then unprepared and dying right away because you refused to prepare just alittle for your family and yourself.
echochamber67@reddit
I dont think you are understanding what likely happens in crisis, it always will happen in waves of cascading size. Basically the first wave takes out all of the real dummies (likely inner city folk with no weapons), second will likely be the government fighting the surviving groups and attempting to establish order, but after that you are likely left with extremely capable people that live in shared fortresses.The "I am Legend" type scenario is not realistic as one human is unlikely to be that advantaged over the others.
I actually think the world is utopian post apocalypse, nature has culled the herd and the strong inherit the world.
JRHLowdown3@reddit
Why would the "inner city folk" have no weapons? Certainly a few minutes watching newscasts prove that's not the case.
Also, what most law abiding citizens lack- the propensity towards and familiarity with VIOLENCE, those "inner city folk" certainly do have. That's the #1 reason not to discount them.
So many gun guys and preppers often take this "I have guns" mindset which equates to "it's a magic wand that will keep me out of trouble." But 99% of the time these same folks have little experience with violence. And when you ask them "when was the last time you were in a fight?" The reply is usually along the lines of a "yo momma's fat" push fight in elementary school.
When you do some force on force training you often see this. People that are HIGHLY RELUCTANT to actually shoot another person even with sims/UTM or airsoft. Rifle not so much (distance weapon), pistol more so. We won't even discuss lack of training in knife and H2H which offers options in force escalation.
For example- we can fill up classes on rifle, NV usage, pistol, but you offer a combatives/ground fighting class, to even include a Free additional half day dealing with knife, and we have only 3-4 people and more role players and instructors there than students. Why? Because gun folks try to avoid the H2H/knife training.
CTSwampyankee@reddit
Step one is to survive the crisis through preparation and education.
Gaming and fiction aren't a how-to guide, they merely provide us with an ocassional mental excercise or angle to consider. Plenty of folks get bogged down with negativity and The Road scenarios and use it as a pretext to do nothing.
As far as being the "bad guy", revert to step one and try to be a decent human. Good people often have to make hard choices.
BigBad3128@reddit
Long term, I believe that learning skills and teaching skills is what will help SHTF situations, as trying to patch it without Government or Billionaire money is not possible. Identifying edible and medicinal plants, having basic construction knowledge and tools, hunting, cooking. These are all what you need for a community to form around you. And as always, practicing these skills regularly is important.
KimBrrr1975@reddit
We mostly only concern ourselves with likely threats. Water main breaks that last a week, weeks-long power outages, things like that. We've experienced both in just the past few years, so we want to be better prepared for those. In a SHTF scenario, even if I survive, I live in a winter state, surviving a winter alone would be a massive challenge. We have a diabetic kid, so, the reality of what that would mean for her isn't pleasant to consider.
That said, even for those shorter term smaller scenarios, community can become vital for many people, very quickly. Elderly, disabled, sick, and young children can become very quickly in a life-threatening situation without electricity or water. We live in a small, fairly remote community and people look out for each other. It's nice to have. That tendency of "looking after me and mine" is still there, but it's always with the background understanding that to truly do so, you need more than just your core family. That is how humans have always survived, and it wouldn't be any different in the future. The lone wolf scenario is super unrealistic and even if it were possible, why? I'd think one would get tired of the "just to see if I can do it" pretty quickly. Humans are not meant to be completely without community or other people, and we just get driven crazy by it, leading to no real quality of life anyhow, even if one survived.
Hefty-Squirrel-6800@reddit
The unprepared citizens include family and friends who know you prep. Their plan is to come to you. Then, once they are there, they think they have a vote in how the preps will be used. Everybody has a chance to prep. Some people don't. That is their choice. That is their consequence.
Do not discuss your preps with anyone. They will show up, and you will have to deal with them. And it may not be that THEY show up. It often is who THEY BRING WITH THEM.
Eredani@reddit
The idea of stockpiling supplies is not about solutions, it's about options.
Food, water, shelter, medicine, weapons, precious metals, barter items... these provide a buffer and in a complete collapse.
They provide options so you have the time and margin to evaluate, plan and execute.
They provide security and peace of mind before you ever even need them.
Everyone here has gamed things out in their own mind based incomplete information, inaccurate experts, and a million potentially faulty assumptions. No one know what is going to happen, when it will happen, how bad it will be, or how it will play out - especially at the local level.
The point is we'll taken that simply sitting on a mountain of beans, bullets and bandages is not a simple solution to flourishing during or after a catastrophic emergency.
But for me it checks the most important box: I won't be the desperate monster looting and murdering to keep myself and my family alive.
SiggySiggy69@reddit
I don’t prep for major collapse. I prep for storms, power outages and financial issues.
My prep’s would likely do me well in the event of a major catastrophe but my plan in those circumstances is to hunker down and ride it out with as minimal footprint as possible.
I won’t really prep for a major event until I buy my land. I’m looking now for 5-10 acres where I can fortify, plant, farm and build a sustainable source of water and power. My goal at that point is to have enough space I can bring in friends, family and start a community. 5-10 acres isn’t enough but it would be a decent starting point for my close circle.
AdditionalAd7018@reddit
This thread is very helpful with my preparation anxiety. If shtf me and my partner should be good for a couple months (but health is a luxury that could fall apart at any time and change circumstances) but I have always daunted on the idea of the “ok now what do you do.” Finding good community has always been the goal if things go real south so I just feel reassured seeing so many other preppers with the same mentality and know that the goal should never be to have to survive alone.
ItsNotGoingToBeEasy@reddit
The irony is what you’re describing is the basic function of society.
If the most paranoid, untrusting people are all that’s left it’s really a bigger problem than what we have now.
awbilinski@reddit
Do you mean we are worth fixing instead of just walking away from our problems? Heck yeah.
JonathanLindqvist@reddit
Hard agree about the part of my kids' or grandkids' futures. I guess dying of old age is itself a privilege I'd like them to have, but there'll undoubtedly be a deep hopelessness knowing there's nothing more than that. I write a lot, and sometimes imagine being the sole survivor in the entire world. Would I still write? Am I hoping for aliens to come and decipher my writings? It just feels empty.
My short-term goal is to prep for my family, and hope that others have prepped elsewhere. Then I extend that to my closest friends. But my long-term goal, or the one I use in my example calculations of costs and calories, is around 40 people. That's not nearly enough to repopulate the planet (genetic diversity issues), but that's at least maybe 7-8 families ("family" meaning mom, dad and 2-3 kids), which is some comfort.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
I think about the lone survivor thing sometimes. It's hard stuff. I think I'd just wander. Or farm and graden until I can't. But honestly securing a future for my kids with safety, and schools, and friends, etc... that's the stuff that I think about.
If it all goes down, reach out, lol, we'll start a tball league.
JonathanLindqvist@reddit
Same. I plan to continue educating the kids, with the general rule that every child needs to learn to read, write and count. I prep to repopulate the world, basically, by establishing good systems early, with the assumption that history will otherwise repeat (kingdoms, slavery, etc.).
I'm in Sweden.. I feel like you're probably on the other side of the hemisphere! But maybe our descendants will meet in 1000 years.
NightFeatherArt@reddit
the unspoken part about shtf situations is the prioritization of your own self above others and what you may have to do in order to succeed long term
notmoisturepolice@reddit
I like to think our country is full of like minded people such as yourself. I am optimistic that if such a scenario ever did happen, we’d have enough wherewithal and compassion to realize that a rising tide lifts all boats. We’re all in this together whether we want to be here or not! Like any relationship it is us against the problem, not us against each other because of a problem. We can only hope enough people feel the same way.
Much-Department-9578@reddit
SHTF prepping needs just one bullet…
preppers-ModTeam@reddit
Your comment was removed due to unsubstantiated pessimism. This scenario is specifically covered under Rule 1. Such negative and defeatist comments are prohibited.
Spiley_spile@reddit
Hello fellow community prepper!
berlenba@reddit
Important to note that you are reaching a Key point in prep stage, where it’s not just for you and yours, but what you can do for your community. Powerful stuff bro. Exercise with caution and abundance.Relationships will be important and we all know power in numbers is a real thing.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
A lot of the time when I plan I try to look at where large stores of supplies can be saved and preserved. Or better yet where things to grow and build can be gotten. Things like farming equipment (with manuals), how to make fuel, how to make ammunition, where to secure small sawmills, etc...
dittybopper_05H@reddit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4F7opVc-yY
Life-Round-1259@reddit
I just hate the primal need for survival. I think about it often while I continue learning about prepping. I often ask myself the what ifs, too.
I like to think my prepping will bridge the gap to something. It might just be bridging the gap between my house burning down and finding stable living. I might be bridging the gap after a severe SHTF moment and some semblance of normalcy.
I might just be bridging the gap between the world ending and me needing time to accept “my own way out.”
Gosh, running through scenarios is such a relatable thing though.
Ancient-Claim-5487@reddit
When I was younger, I was worried about a nuclear war. I'm 58 now and I'm only worried about supplementing food that will be too expensive to buy over the couple of years or after retirement in 5 years. One of the prior posters was right; we are diabetics in our 50/60s and we won't last 6 months without meds. In a disaster scenario, we go out eating well.
Weird-Grocery6931@reddit
You said it in your post: community.
If you don’t currently live a community, that you can help evolve into a resilient community, then you’re behind the curve.
I have seen nations fall. I have seen the isolated outposts wiped out, and I have seen communities that had morning but willpower and weapons, survive.
My advice to anyone is to “know where you live”. Know who is around you. Do an area study. Look at the ground you live on from an operational perspective. Compare local tax records with social media and get a feel for your neighbors. Identify the veterans and law enforcement around you. At least then, should something happen, you’ll have some sense of who will be an asset.
jFraserdickson@reddit
This may be true, but you have to try anyway. If there's going to be looting, you might as well be a looter, rather than the victim. Strap up and take what you need.
KyleOrlandoEng@reddit
Well I think that just proves that no one can prep to be in isolation forever. Staying safe during the initial disaster or die-off is important, but after that we’ll actually have to rely on people more, much more, than we do now. With less people and probably less access to technical knowledge, people will be force into skills based roles. One guy’s really good at farming? He’s now your community’s main farmer. It doesn’t make sense for him to be fixing his tractors. Let someone with mechanical skills do that and barter food for repairs. I kind of imagine it’s going to go back to a village system where you have dedicated careers (baker, farmer, blacksmith, etc). And not to belittle white collar jobs (I’m an application engineer and work in an office) but I think jobs would quickly revert back to things that produced a tangible service or good for the community. You really don’t have a need for a day trader when you’re rebuilding society. That’s waaayy further down the development path.
sprinkles111@reddit
You know I’m reading all this and the thought that comes up is: is it worth it to survive??
I’ve seen people joke about nuclear war and how they’re running towards it because they don’t want to deal with fallout and I thought it was funny.
But now… not so funny :/
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
I think that is a decision for everyone. I think it is worth surviving. There is always going to be something that comes after, honestly I believe humanity is like a cockroach a lot of us may go but we'll persist in some way. I would rather be around to help those who are left. Help people survive and help people thrive as much as possible. It might not work, I might be one of the ones that goes, I might die in the first year, but I'd rather try than not. But, once again, that's just my decision for my life.
Austechprep@reddit
I think a community needs more than just the ability to survive. It needs to be a place people actually want to be, otherwise it becomes hard to grow, hard to keep people motivated, and hard to hold things together long term.
My own probably unrealistic goal is to build something that could support more than just a small trusted group, while still keeping a lot of the comforts that make life better.
Some of the things I’ve been working on are:
Having social media without ads, bots, scammers, and all the usual brain rot actually seems like a huge quality-of-life improvement. It gives people a way to chat, post updates, organise events, and stay connected.
I’ve got a lot of other projects in mind too, but the bigger idea is that a strong community needs comfort, connection, and meaningful things to do, not just food, water, and security. If people are bored, restless, and miserable, that’s going to cause problems fast.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
I love all this! I think about my neighborhood. How would I restart the elementary school to educate kids and parents. How would we farm and where? Where would we get animals from? Luckily I live in Oklahoma so a question is how to restart pumping and refining oil. Surviving is just the first step. Rebuilding is where to go and honestly what I find fun thinking about all this.
Austechprep@reddit
It's good fun, I treat it a bit like a game (since for what I'm doing, the chances of needing it are very slim), where every new piece of technology or service I succesfully "unlock" is like a technology tree unlocked in the games like Civilisation. And everything I do generally aligns to my line of work (technology related) so it's giving me exposure to more systems that I would just at work, the more experience the better for employment.
There is a lot of information out there and it's pretty easy to download shitloads of it just in case.
Ra_a_@reddit
We always say that if our 30,000 nearest neighbors don’t have water, power, or medications, …. That food storage may be the least of our worries
EffinBob@reddit
In prepping for a large scale disaster, the idea is to have enough "stuff" for you to survive the ensuing chaos until some form of society, for good or bad, takes over. The chaos WILL be temporary. At some point you and whoever is left will band together and figure out how to provide for yourselves. Small groups will find others and combine (smart, if possible) or fight until one comes out on top (dumb waste of resources, but we are what we are and it will happen).
Or we will all perish relatively quickly.
I'm betting on our species to persist.
It is true that in the grand scheme of things the universe is indeed hostile to you and will eventually kill you in the end. So what? I can't see the point in whining about it.
vxv96c@reddit
Ah yes. Because no one survived the bubonic plague or wwi or wwii or the holodomor. It's hopeless.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
I don't think it's hopeless.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
So check this out, and feel free to pick my fever dream apart. But step one is to gather your family and friends and survive. Then quickly reach out to neighbors by going door-to-door and asking how everyone is. In an extreme circumstance (which I know is unlikely), like say a nuclear exchange in the Continental U.S. or a super volcano eruption, the immediate step would be to secure a large store of essentials like rice, beans, oatmeal, honey, and multivitamins, to name a few. (This doesn't take into account possible ecosystem collapse, where you would need to throw up large greenhouses and secure pollinators like bees and such.) So we've reached out to neighbors and shared some food and medical info, etc. Next, when the need arises (because I don't think you could get people to do it beforehand), set up roving patrols in the neighborhood and make sure every family is armed. Start to compile lists of people with skills and set up classes (in my situation, I would say at the neighborhood elementary school). Then reach out and secure the next neighborhood and the next. Every group of people and every neighborhood means more folks, more skills, and you plug them into the classes offered and the jobs needing to be done. When possible, plow up softball fields and yards to put in beans and oats and teach people about victory gardens. Now here's the kicker, we all love to think about, defense. In a complete collapse and rebuild, I plan to acquire hardware from known nearby sources. I know others would be doing the same thing, but coordinating with other groups to find and divide what you get, as needed, would be essential. Create local (armory) and fast-reaction squads under civilian control. I have thought that a militia standing up with some essential always-on and training other personnel would be good, so you'd have one or two squads (12-24 people) per group of 120-240. So once you get to a certain size, you move on to secure the larger city. You offer groups (or neighborhoods) help, but it's not required. Kind of a "we're here, this is what we are about, just reach out, and we can be in this together" if they reject your initial offer, leave them a radio and say if you ever need help, reach out. The hard thing is if a group is openly malicious, it can't stand, so having a core of trained personnel (which in my part of the country wouldn't be too hard) to go in and "deal" with that would be essential as you get bigger. Once you have your city secured, you offer help to another city (if they have centralized). If not, you set up somewhere public (a hospital or school) and offer help to folks, then get the other city back up. Then copy, paste, and repeat. During this start, radio broadcasts with rally points for refugees; find those who know how to get things back up and running; create training programs for people who don't know how to help; then they can help. Broadcast daily educational programs. Reach out to farms and help them secure their space and start producing. etc... etc... I know that this probably would NEVER happen, but I find it fun to think about and fun to gather information that would help do that. Eventually, it would get too big to control, and I think that is great. In my case, I'd be one of the people reaching out to new areas again and again. I'm nuts for always thinking this way, but I have hit the point where I know my family is good in every reasonable scenario, so I say screw it, let's go off the deep end!
Suspicious-Emu-1321@reddit
I'm probably going to get flamed for saying this, but have you war gamed fleeing the country and setting up in another part of the world? I would guess that most of us are where we are because our ancestors said f*** it and took the next boat headed west.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
I guess I have thought of that a few times. Honestly, not too seriously. Are you thinking somewhere North? I feel islands are to restrictive when it comes to natural resources and the farther North the colder it gets and the growing season narrows (not that people don't already do that).
Suspicious-Emu-1321@reddit
My historical armature is a large national or international crisis or conflict. 1) Think about the refugees fleeing WWII or the Syrian Civil War. 2) Food crisis like the Potato Famine, Ethiopia back in the 80's, or Stalin's disastrous collectivization policy.
I have no illusions about surviving a world wide TEOTWAWKI.
Adorable_Dust3799@reddit
In a shtf situation I'm dead anyway without meds and whatever. I prep for power outages, water shortages and quakes. I used to prep for being fired.
Tairc@reddit
Yup. It’s a matter of months until I run out of meds and can’t walk, have a heart attack or what have you.
Monarc73@reddit
Yeah, the first year of the Zombie Plague is gonna be a harsh one for my family as well...
blsskn@reddit
Worst that can happen is a civil war in your country, not the complete collapse of global society. Get a grip on reality.
Substantial-Page4704@reddit (OP)
True True
One-Entertainer-5499@reddit
I’m prepping for a month, if society doesn’t come back by then it will be a nightmare I won’t participate in. Having a way to check out is an essential prep
vxv96c@reddit
Famines and world wars span growing seasons. The 2weeks -1 month thing is a post wwii American exceptionalism thing back when our infrastructure was new and scaling. Now we're in a post American exceptionalism world and looking more at multi year crop failure and war.
ChloMyGod638@reddit
Dark but true
smsff2@reddit
I agree that unprepared citizens would likely overrun prepared ones if those prepared individuals tried to hunker down in an unprepared single-family home. I’m not sure how a single-family home in a town or city could realistically be protected, whether by military force or any other means.
It doesn’t matter how many people you have defending; attackers can always bring a larger group.
My bug-out location is in the woods. During the winter, all the roads are blocked, and it’s difficult to get there even if you know the way.
The entire area looks like a homeless encampment. We’re located next to a dump site. I don’t think people would risk their lives trying to attack a place like that. Once my nuclear fallout shelter is complete, my plan would be to burn down all above-ground structures when SHTF, so the area looks like abandoned ruins in the middle of nowhere. I assume people wouldn’t be inclined to move in or dig around to find a bunker.
Even the worst estimates for a nuclear winter suggest up to 90% fatalities. That’s still not enough to make me think my children wouldn’t be able to find partners in the future.
JRHLowdown3@reddit
That last part reminds of that movie "Blast from the past"- "and try to find a nice non mutant woman while your up there honey." (Outside the shelter).
The ruins idea is good, although in itself does lend itself to scavenging. More later on.
Here in the middle of BFE, there are tons of old abandoned homesteads in various stages of degradation. Earlier one we found several that honestly were in better conditions than several of the houses we have rebuilt/remodeled ourselves. The two nicest ones - which wouldn't taken much to fix up- were both torn down, one was block and fairly well built, needed a new roof but structurally was pretty good. Someone tore it down and built the classic new southern style chipboard McMansion not far behind it. Thought to myself damn that would have been an easy rebuild and a nice place for a kid to move into, MIL place, etc. The other was similarly built and condition and was tore down, foundation removed, etc. for another 1/4 acre of farming field... Also a shame. We took pictures in MOPP gear for advertising at that house around 2000- had the apocalyptic beat up house look LOL.
All these old homesteads have been/are scavenged by locals, they call it "plundering" LOL. Sometimes it's to dig up flowers they like growing there, other times they will pull old heart pine out of the older structures, make flooring out of it, etc. But people do "visit" those places. I must admit I've been to a few and walked around them with the eye of a survivor- lots of materials to make fish and animal traps, rudimentary shelter components, etc. Definitely not my first, second or 33rd plan, but it's good to think through things like that.
Having some perimeter alarms would help, especially if your buttoned up, to let you know if any roaming is happening. Seismic intrusion sets are a lot harder to find now but they are ideal, PIR type devices a distant second but easy to find now.
paraffinsection@reddit
This line of thinking is what helped me get over the worry about never having the money/time/space to truly be prepared for the worst. It helped me transition to thinking OK what can I do for myself If there is a tornado or earthquake and I have to be uncomfortable for several days or weeks. Much more manageable in my situation. Everything after that is, who do I know and how can we work together? Really helped me stop the “worry.”
PhiloLibrarian@reddit
To survive you’re going to need a community of a few hundred people … unless you’re investing right now in that community working with people, knowing your neighbors reaching out to local organization setting up emergency plans then ….you’ll just be on your own.
WhichContribution294@reddit
I hope Jay Hanson is wrong:
"Here is a synopsis of the behavioral loop described above:
Step 1. Individuals and groups evolved a bias to maximize fitness by maximizing power, which requires over-reproduction and/or over-consumption of natural resources (overshoot), whenever systemic constraints allow it. Differential power generation and accumulation result in a hierarchical group structure.
Step 2. Energy is always limited, so overshoot eventually leads to decreasing power available to the group, with lower-ranking members suffering first.
Step 3. Diminishing power availability creates divisive subgroups within the original group. Low-rank members will form subgroups and coalitions to demand a greater share of power from higher-ranking individuals, who will resist by forming their own coalitions to maintain power.
Step 4. Violent social strife eventually occurs among subgroups who demand a greater share of the remaining power.
Step 5. The weakest subgroups (high or low rank) are either forced to disperse to a new territory, are killed, enslaved, or imprisoned.
Step 6. Go back to step 1. The above loop was repeated countless thousands of times during the millions of years that we were evolving[9]. This behavior is inherent in the architecture of our minds — is entrained in our biological material — and will be repeated until we go extinct."
ConstantStriking5063@reddit
Prepping for SHTF isn’t really about fear—it’s about love.
It’s about looking at the people in your life and quietly deciding, “If things ever fall apart, I want to be ready for you.” It’s stocking extra food not because you expect the worst tomorrow, but because you refuse to be helpless if it comes. It’s learning skills, making plans, and thinking ahead—not out of paranoia, but out of responsibility.
There’s something deeply human about it. Our ancestors prepared for harsh winters, droughts, and uncertainty. In a way, prepping is just a modern version of that same instinct: protect, provide, survive.
But beyond the gear and supplies, it’s also about mindset. Staying calm when others panic. Thinking clearly when things get chaotic. Being the person others can rely on when everything feels unstable.
It’s not about building a bunker and shutting the world out. It’s about being strong enough to help others when it matters most.
At its core, prepping says: “I may not control what happens… but I will do everything I can to be ready for it—and to take care of the people I love.”
Owenleejoeking@reddit
Building community is key. You can’t save the country. But you can maybe start to build a little village.
Who is welcomed to the village is paramount for the long term success.
Maybe you can influence the county.
You can’t save the state on your own. You can’t save the country or the world on your own. So focus on doing your part. And hope there’s enough else like you to do the same.
AlphaDisconnect@reddit
I think the Amish have had this figured out for a hot minute. Want to see a barn set up in a day which the community built from prefabs. Pick up the whole darned barn. Move it by hand.
Same with police. One police vs one bad guy. Police might be at the disadvantage. But you can't out run the radio. Bring friends.
Even happening in Iran. Navy was using too many havy munitions. So they called in the air force and the A10. Glad those things are on my team.
You need to have more glad you are on my team in your prep life.
Mysterious_Touch_454@reddit
Im prepping for 3 months, and can be up to 6 months, depending if water is still available.
Longer than that means its allready over.
Also having massive stores, but having to evacuate means you cant take them with you, so its wasted.