How the big oil and gas CEOs think the Iran war supply disruption will play out

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Susanoos_Wife@reddit

Might be a bit off topic but remote work never should have been (mostly) phased out after the first couple of years of the pandemic, more people working from home would cut down on fuel usage.

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I think we in NZ will experience fuel rationing in the next couple of weeks. Atm the government seems to just be pretending that things will somehow work themselves out. But the fact is there are currently no more ships coming after the last one docks in a few weeks (if it makes it here). And we only have 20 days stored in the country.

Not sure how Australia is doing, but I suspect they will struggle too. We both get most of our fuel from Asian refineries who in turn get their oil from the gulf.

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jarena009@reddit

Stay strong, NZ. Sorry our idiotic country and government screwed this all up.

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CharlieLanham@reddit

Please get everyone possible to vote Mango Mussolini out of the midterms. Maybe someone with decency will get Congress to actually do something to better the current situation. Paying higher EVERYTHING in Auz because of that Pedo in another country begars belief

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loralailoralai@reddit

Midterms is too late.

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faithOver@reddit

The sentiment is right. But mango didn’t seek congressional approval for this war because he decided it’s a special operation just like Putin and Ukraine.

I’m unsure if midterms are enough to get him to stop acting like a dictator.

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GalaxyPatio@reddit

I just hope we make it that far

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OrangutanArmy@reddit

Similar issues in Aus. They just announcced free public transport in tassie, not much use if you don't live in a town or you work early/late..

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Fuzzy9770@reddit

Is there a way to demand more runs or the same amount of runs spread during the day to cover more people?

I think that it's a great idea but only if the service is being adapted to the needs once the situation starts to become abnormal. Because this will only work out fine (?) if people actually use that public transport.

Great idea if adaptions will be made. Set-up to fail if they just run the schedule as usual.

This means more early busses/trains/trams. More late running public transport and maybe fewer runs during the calm moments.

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OrangutanArmy@reddit

Yeah it will really need to be spread out. I looked at the bus timetable yesterday and I think I theoretically could take a bus too and from work(to a nearby town that I would need to drive to) 2 days a week. But the other 2 days I work I'm not sure I would be able to make the last bus to get me home.

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Fuzzy9770@reddit

I hope that your government and/or other leaders are smart enough to find a way to make it work as the alternative they think it can be.

The schedule sounds pretty irregular to me if it's different for almost every day in the week.

I wish you good luck.

I'm from Western Europe and we are vasal states and they still are bootlicking the USA. So idk what that might mean for the future... As if it will just go away like it came...

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fluckin_brilliant@reddit

Agreed, and the fact that they haven't really considered no fuel = no food deliveries for most of the country...

Due to the pretty lax views of govt, most people are worried they won't be able to drive around soon... but I'm genuinely worried some people are going to starve.

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Bluest_waters@reddit

Wow I had no idea it was that grim there. Shocked people aren't more up in arms about the situation, I think people really genuinely think this whole thing is gonna blow over and it absolutely simply is not going to do that. I feel like the whole world is being caught flat footed on this issue

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BoysenberryMoist6157@reddit

Yes, I'd rather be hollow footed on this issue.

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SkepticalLitany@reddit

The dumb fucks up top are still forcing govt workers into the office for remote-able work. Mind blowingly stupid. My partner goes to work and joins a zoom call with those who are on their rostered WFH day 🤦

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Mystohaxen@reddit

Fuck oil companies and politicians helping them with their dirty business!

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Escudo777@reddit

I wonder how difficult is to stop the war. Ego is a very dangerous thing.

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deleted_by_reddit@reddit

[removed]

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jacscarlit@reddit

First thought that comes to mind: Who would have thought WWIII would likely be fought over oil, helium, and fertilizer disruptions after an incompetent pedo billionaire was afraid that people were learning too much about his connections to the Epstein files.

The world right now wants nothing to do with Trump's baseless war. But, sooner than you know it, the world will be getting involved to stave off mass starvation and distribution disruptions.

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Downtown_Statement87@reddit

The Spanish empire lived and died in the 1500s on gold.

The British empire lived and died in the 1800s on spices.

The American empire lived and died in the 1900s on oil.

The Russian empire will live until it can't anymore on the land where some food will still grow.

The cockroach empire will live forever on the things the other empires left behind.

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faithOver@reddit

Poetry. 👌🏻

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Far_Map_6374@reddit

Wet dream for accelerationist anarchists coming to your neighbourhood this winter… social collapse before GTA 6 chat?

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emseefely@reddit

Winter? I was thinking summer

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Far_Map_6374@reddit

Yes most likely then as well, just that winter is when energy becomes more important from a social surface level due to the freezing weather alongside the private credit market going to crap, I only say this because we are currently in a somewhat similar scenario to 2008 in the months before the crash happened. But we have also entered a similar period of the 1970s some would say in terms of market conditions

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shewholaughslasts@reddit

This summer's warmth may expose those energy deficits before we even get to winter.

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trailsman@reddit

Their job is to talk thief business. Just like Nvidea CEO talks about all the AI use cases and how they have demand for multiple years etc. A majority of their comp is based on their stock, they benefit from its rise.

However, this is one of those things that was clear as day to me 2 weeks ago. We are going in, there is going to be retaliation, even if we go in there is no controlling and clearing the straight and also no attacks on it for at least 2 weeks+ before insurers even think about it, so we're talking months best case. And there is already significant damage to a lot of production that is off the market for a long time. And if an operation to take Kharg Island goes wrong or Iran has it rigged to blow and we lose all Iranian production oil is to the moon.

On top of all that Ukraine is hitting Russian supply, and Europe is seizing Russian ships, so we're losing that supply at the same time. So much so Russia isn't exporting gas (or likely diesel) anymore.

There are many countries that are already starting to have major cracks, and the real pain arrives in the next several weeks. Fertilizer prices, aluminum, helium everything is going up besides everything which is effected by oil & gas. There are going to start to be riots in many countries. Countries are going to start having people work from home or shut down industrial complexs, the economic ramifications given we're all connected are going to eventually hit. And the US is going to pretend like all is good instead of telling people to limit their usage keeping up price. The only good thing about recession is it will break inflation, because at this point we are doomed with an infinite upward spiral as companies need to hit quarterly numbers and want to hide any slowdown topline with juicy profits, so there's going to charge more as usual than it's actually costing and even if prices drop we know they're going to keep charging higher.

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Far_Map_6374@reddit

The magnificent 7 (including NVIDIA) is currently carrying the S&P 500…. Wall Street has bank rolled it alongside private credit abusing any “fintech” startup out there… there is a strong incentive for AI to be pushed into certain industries, a strong incentive of course for the few and powerful and the revenue charts of conglomerates. It’s a very bleak future, warfare will advance to the point that any attempt at dismantling tyrannical governments will be frankly impossible unless the government itself trips itself up… which often happens at the expense of the masses. I’m not saying what these freaks want to do with AI is good for the most part it isn’t, they use it to generate revenue but provide no real material value to general society, alongside the evolution of warfare. Instead of talking about curing cancer and other harmful diseases and illnesses AI experts keep on warning about doomsday scenarios. AI data centres will also move into space. Essentially we are entering a softly high tech dystopia period and it’ll only get worse. AI is in the wrong hands to summarise. No consideration for the people on the industries they’ll replace (most likely white collar jobs within the next 20 years such as investment banking and almost the gig economy will disappear) and this is all very likely because AI is in the hands of people who are extremely powerful and who only care about company revenue and a culture of the extremely elite.

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trickortreat89@reddit

I’m sure that Trumps ultimate plan is to take the full control of oil production in Iran and ensure the Hormuz strait. Eventually he wants oil production back on track and for the US to control it with military force so no one can disrupt or slow down production ever again.

But I really hope this plan is just a big fail and that he just destroyed the whole infrastructure he wanted to control so that it will take many years no matter what to build up again. It won’t be in his lifetime.

Maybe a plan b could be to destroy others oil capacity in the Middle East so the only one left is the US itself and those other producers they already control (Venezuela), making other nations fully dependent on oil from the US as they need that.

I hope this plan also will fail because other nations are waking up and pushing on the green transition.

This COULD actually be our chance to get rid of the dependency of fossil fuels once and for all, but I won’t keep my hopes too high too soon.

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hairy_ass_truman@reddit

Too orange to succeed.

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Heem_butt08@reddit

We are all experiencing Peter Thiel accelerationist plan in action I fear…

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carteroneil@reddit

Isn't it also in their interest that prices don't return to "pre-war" prices any time soon? Gives "laying the groundwork for later justifications for continuing to charge more later" vibes.

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LittleNor789@reddit

The CEOs of the world’s most influential oil and gas companies will profit from this. Expect their salaries to double or triple despite the rest of us struggling to survive.

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Creepyfaction@reddit (OP)

" 1. Oil industry executives painted a grim picture of the Iran war supply disruption at S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. 2. hey warned that the disruption is bigger than the markets understand and prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon. 3. The disruption to jet fuel, diesel and gasoline is even bigger. Shortages are rippling through Asia and will hit Europe by April, they said. 4. Security experts said escalation of the war is likely. The conflict could break the Gulf Arab nations economies."

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PromotionStill45@reddit

They're not going to talk about fertilizer / agricultural chemicals too? Same urgent timetable for those in some countries.

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Jlocke98@reddit

The fertilizer shortages might cause too much panic

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MoonlitInstrumental@reddit

also consider the countries who's entire economy depends on the strait. big humanitarian crisis, before the bigger crisis of no food because no fertilizer and fuel. we were already running out of time on an ecological/climate standpoint. we absolutely can not afford a war

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AmazingBenefit9784@reddit

Oh so that's gow they sleep at night. They call killing innocent people a "disruption" I see

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ThrowRA-4545@reddit

Let me guess - they all flew there on private jets?

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Far_Map_6374@reddit

Folk… it was the straws broddie….. they noticed consumer pull back in paper straws 😭🥀

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StatementBot@reddit

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Creepyfaction:

Oil industry executives painted a grim picture of the Iran war supply disruption at S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
They warned that the disruption is bigger than the markets understand and prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon.
The disruption to jet fuel, diesel and gasoline is even bigger. Shortages are rippling through Asia and will hit Europe by April, they said.
Security experts said escalation of the war is likely. The conflict could break the Gulf Arab nations economies."

The CEOs of the world’s most influential oil and gas companies delivered a sobering message this week about the impact of the Iran war on energy supplies and the long-term consequences for the global economy.

The executives gathered in Houston, Texas, for S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek energy conference to take stock of the war. They warned that the market is not reflecting the scale of the disruption to oil and gas supplies.

Asia and Europe will face fuel shortages if the war drags on, the executives said. Oil prices are likely to remain high even if the conflict ends as countries restock depleted reserves, they said."

Among insiders within the industry, the picture is rather grim and by next month the consequences of the global energy crisis will surface more overtly which can lead to a cascading effect.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1s6ell0/how_the_big_oil_and_gas_ceos_think_the_iran_war/od1cimr/