Can anyone please remind me the ***order*** of impact again with this? Kinda being serious here thinking larger picture.
1. Australia actual shortage. (they get most their refined fuels from East Asia IIRC)
2. East Asia actual shortage.
3. West Europe actual shortage.
4. US due to global demand / outbound shipping.
Accurate assessment, though I am unsure how badly this truly will affect the Chinese, I have seen a few reports of Chinese flagged tankers making it through. The Chinese do have that big intel vessel parked just outside international waters and it is believed to be feeding intel to the Iranians. As a secondary note the electronic warfare and radar intel the Chinese are getting from this is IMMENSE.
Also, what's the prediction on the outcome of this war once the US side is out of patriot and thaad interceptor missiles? They blew through 2 years' worth of production in 8 days
That part's hilarious to me because S. Korea has the internet like (almost) anyone else. Being an American ally bites every country in the end. That government should've planned for it.
Or pressure. Their crude reserves might be low if they don't act sooner than later, and also the USA might restock on munitions. We are going to be critically low if we aren't already in the next week or two, especially on interceptors. So now might be the time to act for them...
We will start switching to good old proxy fuse AA while moving around the AA battery from missiles every few hours / depending on their satellite schedule.
The Shahead drones are the pain in ass here, and I'm sure China has been taking notes. As far as the production, I know they've been busy in Dayton and outlying production facilities in the midwest I've driven by, they don't usually have vehicles there on weekends... but they do now.
I think you're spot on. I do think you left out that more missiles will start making it through if Iran still has any left. It seems like the Iran can outlast us for now with their domestically produced drones.
We can't discount the fact that even if Iran runs out of drones they can be supplied through back channels from China if China really wants to see this play out. I follow the Ukraine conflict closely and these drones are found all the time with American parts on the Russian side. If a disorganized mess of a military like Russia can do this , a logistical and methodical country like China could easily do it.
Former EW here. I second this. Its like Christmas fucking morning for the Chinese. The amount of ELINT they are getting is nuts. They are going to be able to defeat and identify everything were have. Crazy.
I was just thinking that- doesn't all that ELINT pretty much disregard all the stealth tech and EW the fighters have? Especially with prolonged exposure
China is getting all their oil. Russia is making super bank selling to India to rearm. And yes, China is getting all out capabilities intel.
Tldr: losers from this? USA and western world. Winners? CHINA and Russia. Hugely and bigly.
Iranian exports are up 100k barrels a day. India has been buying cheap russian oil. China will be buying more russian oil as the sanctions were lifted.
We get billions of resources destroyed in the ME, spend billions, cause global disruption.
The India rationing is dismissed by its Gov and they have supply lines with Russia. Vietnam is correct as they work hard to increase purchasing from Russia. Trump saved Russia with this war.
China and Russia have been trading with Iran for decades. Its the "west" that says Iran is "bad". China will continue to get oil without much issue as Iran will allow passage based on past and future friendships. Where did Iran get the drone and missle parts????
So we have plenty of oil/refined petroleum here in the US, but unfortunately it is owned by big oil companies that will sell it where they make the most money. I always ask my fellow Texas and Louisiana friends why they donât have 10 cent per gallon gas like the Saudis. Light bulbs sometimes click on in their heads.
East Asia shortage first, countries like Japan, South Korea, China, and India rely heavily on Gulf crude and LNG moving through Hormuz.
1. Refining knock on effects - Australia imports a lot of refined fuel from those Asian refineries, so shortages there ripple outward.
2.Europe tightening next ,Western Europe loses Gulf supply and starts competing harder for Atlantic Basin barrels.
3. U.S. impact mostly via price, not shortage, the United States produces a lot domestically, but global oil pricing means gasoline still spikes. We think gas prices are high now? If this continues it will only get worse.
TLDR - East Asia supply shock>refining/export ripple >Europe competition >U.S. price shock.
Interesting to bring up the gulf of \[mumble-mumble\]. Sea surface temperature is higher now than it has ever been this time of year. Doesn't bode well for 3-4 months from now.
[https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst\_daily/?dm\_id=gomex](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=gomex)
Hmm, then the major "refined" energy users will get knocked...like mining, farming.
I almost wonder if coal prices will spike? Asia still uses a ton of domestic coal, and parts of Europe too.
India will be the canary in the coal mine.
Thats why Trump first lifted Russian sanctions on shipment to India. There are already headlines of LNG shortage in parts of India.
Can confirm current shortages in rural Australia. Hiked prices $2.20 - 4.00+ /litre so far. (Aud)
Gov releasing reserve stocks and relaxing fuel quality standards so we can use lower quality fuel normally exported overseas.
Farmers here not happy at all. Diesel shortages are very bad for agriculture and food distro
Saw one of the folks I follow in Australia say gas was over $8/gal (U.S.), and commenter said West. Australia was limiting folks at the pumps to a single extra Jerry can. Not sure if that is true or not.
Yep can confirm. In my area (major metro) its gone from AU$1.80/L to AU$2.65/L in 2 weeks. That's equivalent to US$7.12/gal and I hear its worse out bush
Oil analyst on NPR this morning said there wouldnât be a shortage in the US at least until the release of strategic reserves runs out. Why there would ever be a shortage here is kind of beyond my understanding, I assume itâs because the strategic reserve has to be consumed domestically? And our shale oil will be in high demand internationally since itâs a sweet crude like the stuff that goes through Hormuz.
"Actual shortage" doesn't really mean much. Oil is a commodity and mostly fungible. Just because China got a lot of oil from Iran before the war, doesn't mean they can't start buying from somewhere else.
To do this they will offer more money, so all other countries have to offer more money and so the people that go without will be the poorest countries and individuals that get priced out from the oil market.
Everyone's oil is going to get more expensive for the duration of the closure. The only people that will actually have to go without oil are the people that cannot afford the new price. Also worth noting that Oil is used to make plastic, so all plastic will get more expensive, and oil is used to move things from one location to another, so everything that needs to be moved will get more expensive.
This is not a doomsday scenario in the sense that the US or anywhere else on your list is going to run out of oil, it will affect those places by making life a bit harder, which might cause protests. The places that may actually run out of oil is the global south who do not have the same amount of money as the US or Europe. Nor as much as Australia nor East Asia.
Commodities in general are not just numbers on a chart. At some point the product has to be extracted or grown, processed, packaged and shipped to the customer. In this case there isn't enough spare capacity elsewhere in the world to compensate for the Strait of Hormuz closure, or meaningful bypass routes, far from it.
If this stupid situation continues for more than a couple of months, the effects will be hard even in Europe. You could argue that technically that's not running out of oil, but if entire industries shut down because it is economically impossible to continue operating, the outcome is the same.
I understand it isn't doomsday... never said it was, im just looking down the road farther.
Plastics is what I'm going for this week, I need some drain tile and plumbing pipes that I have put off for a couple projects.
But we do.
[https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz)
OMG I thought he was doing the 'nothing between the ears' dance! Like if you picture a towel going through his ears and he is moving it back and forth with a slight squeaking sound??
They'll blame Biden for not allowing fracking to destroying the environment. Obama for not dealing with Iran sooner.
They defended tariffs so perhaps they will defend the gas prices as a temporary patriotic burden.
Remember, just because you don't drive a gas-fueled vehicle doesn't mean this won't affect you in a major way. Every single good you purchase requires gas/oil to transport it, from the food you eat to the phone in your pocket. And when gas prices go insane, so will the price of everything else (as if it hasn't already been insane and unaffordable to the middle class and poor for 6 years)
Diesel is the cheapest distillate out of a barrel of oil, yet, with the biggest price jump, over $5 a gallon now in the USA.
Diesel is necessary.
You can park you car and walk to the grocery store, or take a bike, and work from home.
They know.
Also, why isn't the US declaring a Work-From-Home emergency policy? This won't end tomorrow. Save Gas NOW.
Oil and is its byproducts are used for a ton of things besides transport too. Think paint, plastics, cosmetics, fertilizers. Itâs used in everything.
Yep, to illustrate that even more just think about how every human being has loads of microplastics inside them. Shows how much we rely on plastic even down to the packaging of basically everything, so this is going to touch almost everything when it comes to prices.
The whole oil situation is intresting.
The USA has a ton of shale oil from the Permian basin. However, only a few places like Baytown and Beaumont, Texas can refine it, because it is "light crude".
The USA use to refine light crude all the time, but made decisions back in the early 1970s to change the refineries to refine "Heavy Crude" which comes from places like Mexico and the Middle East.
We did this because the USA thought we were running out of oil as we pumped up the easy stuff in places like Texas. It was way later we figured out how to frack and get the shale oil out, but left our refineries on "Heavy Crude" as we could just keep shipping it here at low cost.
Now we are in trouble as we can't refine our own light crude fast enough to not have a oil shock. Even though we have so much oil here in the USA.
Been through there a handful of times. Each time all I could think of is how narrow it is next to urban areas that look next to impossible to adequately police if an organized group wanted to terrorize traffic coming through there.
It honestly looks like the only ones running out of capabilities the last few nights are Israel and the US. Iron Dome defense system is dropping to about 50% effectiveness and the US is having to move it's THAAD from South Korea because the rest have been hit.
They are running out of ammo and systems from the the few that get through. The US military told Trump they couldn't sustain this, shooting down drones with weapons that cost WAY more. He went ahead anyways. I feel awful for the entire population down there and for US service members who are fighting a war for no reason other than Israel clearly is dragging Trump around by his balls.
âWe won the war, mission accomplishedâ- Trump. Iâm willing to bet him and his buddies are making a ton off trading the oil price volatility. The big guys profit, everyone else loses.
To. Every dipshit in the comments rightfully angry about the monetary costs of this, yet not paying any attention to what we just added to the atmosphere. Also, all the damage done in extracting the resource, only to send it into flames.
I mean, we all knew there would be a weaponized assault on Iran, and a high risk of oil economic disruption. We didnât know the extent of the consequences, sure. But in hindsight, seizing Venezuelaâs oil, halting shipments to Cuba and then immediately launching assault on Iran should have been a clue. Not to mention âIranâ blowing up various oil refineries in the region; this all largely benefits Russia.
I saw the same thing. Even if thatâs not verifiable, heâs definitely doing insider trading. All of the trump family and associates have benefitted from insider shit.
Reminder:
Iran has been six months away from getting a nuclear weapon since the 90âs
Operation midnight hammer was a yuge success
The nordstream 2 pipeline was destroyed by several ukrainians from a rented yacht
I bought some serious large batteries that I can charge through multiple sources.
May not be a whole fricken car... but I can use those batteries on multiple sources like a golf cart, or E-bike If my CNG / diesel systems run out.
I've been trying to round out my systems to blend better with every day life. Trying to find multiple use in / outside of SHTF while the items are providing working daily return.
Having a sensible storage that can provide a "Base level" to my living rather than "all in" is what im trying to achieve. Till SHTF... I plan on running basic things off the system, switching batteries around to get full use out of them. 30kw with solar that I have now is more than enough to put a huge dent in everyday living, and hopefully even my local travel. I am not giving up my engines though... other more desperate methods are just too good to ignore with those.
Bruh! You're going to be a power god when shtf. You're location will matter the most. Temp and weather extremes I think will be biggest tax on energy consumption in the future. For sure on the engine idea. I have solar and wind power generation as primary but gas and diesel still there as secondary alternates.
I'm almost all set power wise, just a few other projects.
The ultimate issue has actually boiled (heh) down to water and waste water for every day life. Actually by far the hardest thing to pin down in all situations.
If we truly see a shortage, then we'll likely see a huge divestment into smaller systems that won't require the big rigs, like most residential setups.
This is definitely gonna be a result for those that can afford it. The price of every good imaginable is about to be insane though due to how this affects the transportation networks we rely on.
Why, as the President of the United States, does Trump seem to care only about Netanyahu's interests and not America's? Now I'm worried about how Trump will handle this global disaster. He should have ended it quickly a long time ago.
Petro dollar is gonna drop...inflation....we ain't seen nothing yet. spending billions, all while tanking the dollar because those Arab countries are converting that oil to US dollars. Oh boy. Fun times....you cant tell me this wasn't the plan all along.
Isreal said look what we did in Gaza, no one is going to do anything, Iran next. Arab countries....yeah um...OK we will give you the cash but we need x,x,computer chips,and protections. Just like a dumb bitch the leader of the US only saw the money but didn't care to understand the cost. Or maybe just didn't care.
Did I get all that right?
Project 2025 and the "Mar-A-Lago Accord" both call for purposefully and drastically weakening the US dollar, and both plans have been around for a while. The Yarvin-loving tech-billionaire cult (Theil, Andreessen, Sacks, Musk etc - those who installed Vance as VP) also wants to weaken the US dollar enough that the world turns to crypto as a decentralized and geopolitically stable reserve currency.
These aren't just pipedreams, they're in charge of the US government now and using every tool they can to bring down the current economic paradigm in the US. Remember, their mantras are "move fast and break things" and "flood the zone". Looks like they're following through on what they told their voters they were going to do.
This ship was located in the northern Persian Gulf near Kuwait. It wasnât attempting to cross the strait. 2 other equally sized oil transports were hit as well in the same area.
I expect the US will start seizing any âChina ownedâ tankers allowed to pass by Iran as compensation. I can also see the US seizing both kharg island and Iranian land positions along the straight of Hormuz.
I have nothing to add other than this war feeling different. It feels like the whole world is in some shit now.Â
When we entered Afghanistan it felt like comeuppance after 9/11, and with Iraq it was like âuh wait what about Afghanistan?â But also it felt like there was 0 threat coming from Iraq.Â
But Iran, for as fucked up as they currently are, have basically nothing to lose other than total annihilation in a nuclear attack (unlikely but you never know) and have the ability to disrupt the whole world at least for the next few months.Â
Oil futures back up to $93 a barrel as of typing this. Who would have thought..... Besides everyone with a brain.
I heard one of the oil tankers blown up was American.
Diversion from the Epstein Files to protect a bunch of pedoâs into a multi national potential WW3. This absolutely affects the entire planet as petroleum is a driving force behind the world economyÂ
It's not a diversion from the Epstein files, it's moreso the content from the Epstein files was used to blackmail Trump and his ilk to engage in this war to benefit Israel
Lot of files showing he trafficked women to a former Israeli PM and visited Israeli bases multiple times. Not to mention Maxwellâs fatherâs ties to Mossad. Thereâs more ofc but that alone is pretty concerning
This is akin to the wolves of Yellowstone. There's a fear of ecology now. ships have to adapt out of fear that they will be struck. Doesn't matter if they have enough ships or mines. The fear is all they need.
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