Strong El Niño might be coming this year according to latest ECMWF forecast
Posted by iwakan@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 87 comments
Posted by iwakan@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 87 comments
Marko2008x@reddit
This story has hit me very, very hard. I had a crack at explaining it in the opening of the podcast I record each week, would love any feedback on how accurate my account was. It goes from the opening for roughly 30mins in. Thanks in advance for any thoughts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/jack-of-all-graves/id1529911356?i=1000761186983
alwaysnormalincafes@reddit
I can’t believe we’re already approaching another strong El Nino. The effects of the La Nina this winter were infinitesimal compared to what they would have been two decades ago. We’re so fucked.
RollinThundaga@reddit
emp_sanfords_hardhat@reddit
Wasn't there a 'super el nino' in 2023?
potorthegreat@reddit
That one was stronger than average but it wasn’t notably strong by historical standards. Our climate is just so fucked that it had dramatic consequences. This next one looks to be a monster, with even worse consequences.
ImportantCountry50@reddit
Um, not to nit-pick, but the last strong El Niño occurred 3 years ago in 2023-24. Global average temps shot up to 1.5degC above pre-industrial and they have stayed there. Hilarity has ensued, with catastrophic fires, floods, and droughts spreading across the world. Temperature records falling by the thousands. The jet stream gone pear shaped.
How weird that isn't even mentioned in this thread, unless this post was written by an AI, of course.
iwakan@reddit (OP)
2023 wasn't a strong El Niño, it was just an average strength (and short-lived) one.
next_door_rigil@reddit
It was a strong one, right? It was even partially responsible for the record breaking global temperatures we had. The surprising part to me will be if we actually have a strong one then it is not really following the usual 8 year cycle. But maybe it is because I am young and it mostly followed that pattern in my lifetime. Is it not really out of place?
screendoorblinds@reddit
My guess is either that they are considering strength with the new RONI (which iirc downgraded the last El niño to moderate), or they mean a certain temperature threshold for "this strong"? Not sure but fair points here. Oddly, the image here doesn't appear to be using RONI either
ImportantCountry50@reddit
My thoughts exactly. The OP can split hairs to their hearts content, it's not going to change the facts on the ground. I believe Hansen made the same point, If even a so-called 'moderate' El niño can yank our chain that hard on a global scale then we are well and truly screwed by what appears to be coming this summer.
Top_Hair_8984@reddit
AI for sure.
redditmodsRrussians@reddit
I was there Gandalf…….10 years ago when the strength of men failed…….
Tearakan@reddit
If this hits this summer then we could be incredibly fucked. Extremely heat with economic collapse and an incredibly unpopular regime and war overseas has caused civil wars and violent revolutions before in some of the strongest empires on the planet.......
CollectibleHam@reddit
Plus the interruption of oil will mean a reduction in pollution worldwide and so the aerosol masking will drop and we'll see a spike in temperatures and methane emissions like we saw in the 2020 pandemic, on top of the el niño! This is going to be a bad summer.
springcypripedium@reddit
I dread this summer and beyond. I miss biodiversity. I'm old enough to remember every milkweed filled where I lived filled with monarch caterpillars, bobolinks, meadowlarks in fields . . . all gone now, never to return.
fedfuzz1970@reddit
I know this is old news but we traveled from NC to upstate NY, then to Connecticut and home last June, without having to clean the windshield even once. Does anyone else remember having to clean it at every fuel stop? I do.
ideknem0ar@reddit
And headlights and bumpers absolutely coated with them. Nowadays, a bug hits the windshield and it's so unexpected I jerk the wheel and am like "wtf was that??" for a hot second.
springcypripedium@reddit
Yes, I do, too. And I remember trying to (as safely as possible) dodge monarchs that filled the roads 😬 during fall migration.
Last year I saw only a handful of monarchs. Now, if I accidentally run into one on the road I feel HORRIBLE. They are endangered with their population collapsing----a once ubiquitous butterfly that may go the way of the passenger pigeon in our lifetime.
All the work it takes for monarch caterpillars to reach the stage of a butterfly! It is miraculous when they make it from egg, to caterpillar to butterfly. The threats from predation, diseases, pesticides/herbicides, milkweeds being mowed down (mowers chopping up caterpillars), being parasitized . . . then miraculously they make it to be a butterfly only to be killed by a fucking car or truck.😩
CollectibleHam@reddit
Spring and summer are so quiet nowadays. I'm living in the same place I did as a kid and it used to be a riot of birdsong and insects once the snow melted away, such a stark contrast to the silence of our long dark winter. All that vitality just seemed to slip away when I wasn't paying attention, and like you said, it's gone and will not return.
fedfuzz1970@reddit
True. The 72-hour halt of commercial flights after 9/11 in the U.S. resulted in an average increase in ground temperatures of over 2 F, I think it was like 2.3 or something like that. All because there were no contrails. Hansen proved that changing to cleaner shipping fuels raised average temps 0.3 C.
wowzabob@reddit
Interruption in flows of natural gas will lead to an increase in pollution worldwide.
China has a bunch of built up coal power plants that they have in place as an energy back up, and they will likely turn a bunch of them online to fill the gap from the lost LNG.
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
Idk if it would cause reduction of pollution that big to make a difference. Just spitballing here but rising oil proces will slow global growth but people still need to ship stuff, go to work, etc. Price of oil will rise a shitload which will create drops in global growth with the end user absorbing the impact (prices for end users rise, food will rise, gas will rise in price).
That heavily depends on the war continuing past the next 4-5 weeks. Trump will have to end this or he risks crashing the world economy. Ending it means peace talks or overwhelming power.
TheJewBakka@reddit
I'll selfishly take it. We need the moisture badly in New Mexico.
europeanputin@reddit
So few months ago it wasn't even clear that El Niño will come, then it was "possible", but wouldn't be strong because of such short La Niña, and now we have what I understand 80% chance of strong and 22% of super event. What's the explanation of not foreseeing this earlier and how come the short La Niña produces potentially a super event?
Nevertheless, 2027 will be wild.
ditchdiggergirl@reddit
Climate change, son. It’s hard to base predictions on historical patterns when the underlying variables change so much, and we are seeing new patterns never before experienced.
iwakan@reddit (OP)
ENSO is simply notoriously difficult to forecast. Especially around this time of year due to the so called spring predictability barrier.
mem2100@reddit
The physical world is full of phenomena that are highly sensitive to initial conditions and this sure seems to be one of them. And this is partly/largely why climate scientists have such a difficult time forecasting the global average temperature for the next 12 months or 24 months.
seniorcircuit@reddit
Yeah especially when the computer models that are used for forecasting are still largely based on datasets that likely are no longer accurate or applicable due to the rapidly changing conditions.
Even with day-to-day weather forecasting, it seems like 5-10 day forecasts that we had gotten accustomed to being fairly accurate have started to be less reliable than they had been in the 2000's & 2010's. So of course scientists are going to have even more trouble with forecasting conditions for longer timelines as these changing conditions compound in unpredictable ways over the next 10-20 years.
PintLasher@reddit
I always tell people that the weather is often wrong these days because the planet they developed the forecast models for no longer exists
mem2100@reddit
Big Carbon (and their allies) is running a frightfully effective disinformation campaign.
Added to that, is Bill Gate's, who decided to provide third world hospice care instead of addressing climate change head on. Bill started TerraPower in 2006 - to develop a next gen fission plant. He "may" have an improved (molten salt) plant in production by 2030 - after a quarter of a century.
Despite his direct experience learning how hard it is to simply create an incremental improvement to fission (a mature technology), he said this in his October GatesNotes (the bold is my doing):
And fusion, which promises to give us an inexhaustible supply of cheap clean electricity, has moved from science fiction to near-commercial.
We are making slow but steady progress on plasma containment, but that is merely part 1 of 2. NO ONE knows for sure how to make a resilient "inner wall" that will transfer the heat from the fusion reaction to a turbine. Researchers in Czechia spent 5 years (2020-2024) testing the Beryllium tilers ITER planned to use. Even though they gave the tile 2 thumbs up - ITER has recently announced they are switching to tungsten tiles.
I told my wife thumbthing went wrong with those tests. She just shook her head and said: fusion isn't coming in time to save the day babe. Just accept it, you'll feel better.
EnlightenedSinTryst@reddit
Models tend to replace neutral uncertainty with false comfort
redditmodsRrussians@reddit
At this point, I fully expect a zombie apocalypse and/or aliens invading because we are in the wildest, dumbest and darkest timeline.
requios@reddit
lol the darkest timeline is that the apocalypse is going to be extremely boring and unsexy compared to anything we could imagine
RlOTGRRRL@reddit
My nightmare is that reincarnation or simulation theory is true and we're going to have to relive this shit in a loop.
DelayedTism@reddit
Fuck I hope not lol. I'm good with one. I would have been fine with 0. Not a fan of this life of wage slavery
Washingtonpinot@reddit
They suggested it COULD happen. By now if you’re on this sub, you should just be assuming it WILL happen.
Lailokos@reddit
>.25C in the water, so worse than the ratchet from the last one. Air temps are going to go nuts, higher than anyone has forecast. 3rd Kelvin wave, record westerlies. The weather will respond in months again, just like the Canadian wildfires in 23.
Stillcant@reddit
I don’t see a link to your comments point, can you help?
Lailokos@reddit
That isn't a small el nino signal from ECMWF. It's a large one. Anything over 2 is pretty big, and we have 3s here. And see how it's all still rising/not peaked? Could get worse. And what's even more interesting is each update on this el nino hasn't been pushing the rise later, it's just been making the same arrival time larger in size. The el nino is arriving about when it was first detected, but it just keeps getting warmer and warmer. If we consider things like the north pacific record water temps, the record PDO, and how hot everything has been, this is going to be a monster.
Stillcant@reddit
Thanks, and I was curious about the .25c water. I have read a lot about El Niño but have not really read about strength predictions d water to air temp
Lailokos@reddit
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2
so go look up years before 2023, and then after. 23 elevated ocean temps .25C or so, and it looks like permanently. I'm saying this next one is going to do the same, and even larger, or at least that's my strong suspicion. Then after a (small) delay, air temps will follow by some larger amount. The latter half of 26 and 27 will be the 'new' hottest year ever then.
Frequent-Ad-6206@reddit
Have you seen this?
https://x.com/krvast/status/2027290897453392181?s=46&t=x84LF6SCnJVFzJs11X8LFA
He’s saying the Drake passage, for 1st time in observed history will be iceberg free, speeding up Antarctica current, which will further increase water temps in Nino1+2 region, creating a monster year. This isn’t happening yet, and isn’t a factor used in any models as far as I can tell.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
I'd be taking his stuff with a grain of salt. He was quite certain at the start of february that the monthly average anomaly will be +3°C for february and march.
Back in 2024 he said it's certain 2024 will end with more than 1.8°C of warming, ending somewhere between 1.9°C and 2.3°C. The average anomaly for that year was 1.55°C
In 2022 he was sure we would have our first BOE before the 25th of august.
I'm sure there's more if you scroll deeper.
This could be some very important information, but his record for predictions based on the stuff he shares is not exactly rosy so far.
Frequent-Ad-6206@reddit
Helpful thanks. Grok told me his track record was good 😂. We’re cooked either way, just how quickly.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
Yeah, not to say things aren't bad. The situation is horrible right now.
You're welcome any time! I'm always happy to take an AI's job
Lailokos@reddit
I don't know enough about the topic specifically, though the Amdusen Sea Low has some nasty feedbacks with El Nino/freshening, and deep water convection throughout the south ocean. There could be something to it? I hope he explains further. Basal melt is going to decimate Thwaites even worse shortly, that's for sure.
Stillcant@reddit
Thank you, appreciate it. Dangerous times
huehuehuehuehuuuu@reddit
Burn baby burn.
With our luck, Trump might even try to send ICE over the border to shoot at the fires.
theycamefrom__behind@reddit
nah too scary, they already have their hands full arresting children at schools anyway
Ragnarok314159@reddit
Just need more tracer rounds to help put out these fires!
Royal_Register_9906@reddit
I'm curious. Does anyone else think this is gonna be the mother of all cascading disasters? I believe once we come out on the other side of this el nino our world will become vastly different at a quick pace. Yes yes I know other tipping points have been crossed, but this is my coming to terms moment.
Glaukopis96@reddit
plastic age collapse
springcypripedium@reddit
I feel it could be . . . . so many things coming together all at once (super El Niño possible BOE, WW3, amoc slowdown etc.). Perhaps we have moved out of the "slow collapse" mode that people often refer to here into a whole new, horrifying realm.
Ok_Act_5321@reddit
I live in India
Frequent-Ad-6206@reddit
Feels like that here nowadays too
OpinionatedShadow@reddit
Sorry
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
Science clowns scoffed at Hansen's prediction of 1.7c in 2027.
miyavlayan@reddit
who are the science "clowns" you are talking about?
YOURTAKEISTRASH@reddit
It's probably a Michael Evan Mann vibe
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
That's why Mann (and never someone like Hansen) is one of the go-to experts (sugar-coaters) brought on by mainstream news when a dire report is released.
fedfuzz1970@reddit
Exactly. I sent Velshi an email (he has actually answered in the past) after he had McKibben on and asked why he hasn't had James Hansen on. Bupkus.
Peripatetictyl@reddit
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.
-Upton Sinclair
slow70@reddit
And so we will suffer. For the greed and for the liars driven by it.
HDThoreau5@reddit
This quote rings true in so many circumstances today.
Lailokos@reddit
I'd bet closer to 2C.
Jungle_Brain@reddit
I think you’re confusing “studies” pushed by the oil and coal industries with actual scientific research
switchsk8r@reddit
wait... wasn't this supposed to hit 2027? is it moving up in schedule? faster than expected...
screendoorblinds@reddit
It's been forecast for later this year to be declared, but there is a lag in when the temperatures are impacted so it's more like forecast to start in '26 (around summer) with the biggest temperature impacts in '27 which is why Hansen has talked about a possible 1.7c 2027.
switchsk8r@reddit
thank you
moosemc@reddit
Never liked seafood that much, anyway.
leisurechef@reddit
I don’t think Punxsutawney Phil is seeing his shadow this year
redditmodsRrussians@reddit
Well, depending on how shitty things go, his shadow could be permanently on the ground at one point
hereforinfoyo@reddit
Luckily I have no idea what ECMWF means so I can remain blissfully ignorant (and if the last F stands for Forecast, I'm gonna be mad).
Wonderful-Bag-1103@reddit
I think it means, “Ecology Collapsing, Man We’re Fucked”
1098duc_w_the_termi@reddit
I like Environmental Collapse, Man We’re Fucked more.
redditmodsRrussians@reddit
I like “Ecology Fucked, Man We’re Prolapsing More”
EnlightenedSinTryst@reddit
I’m mad too, but is it technically grammatically okay since it’s part of the name?
iwakan@reddit (OP)
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Refamonkey@reddit
I wonder if a lot of this is tied to the panama cold water event that did not occur for the first time this year.
Drone314@reddit
The Summer of 26' - write your own headline
moldy-scrotum-soup@reddit
I wonder if this extra heat will make stronger storms this year.
kingtacticool@reddit
terrified Floridaman noises
AccumulatedFilth@reddit
ELI5
What's El Niño? All I know it's a Spanish clothing brand that was popular in the early 2000's.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/iwakan:
SS: This is the March forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, one of the leading forecasting institutions. The ensemble forecast has an unusually strong agreement that there will be an El Niño event starting later this year, and many of the potential forecast members even result in a very strong event with over 2C index anomaly. The last time such a strong El Niño occurred, 10 years ago, the world smashed the previous yearly global temperature record and this of course had many severe consequences. El Niños often act as "steps" on the temperature increase ladder, marking record years that never go back down to that of previous years even after the El Niños end.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1rne4h7/strong_el_niño_might_be_coming_this_year/o9630ju/
iwakan@reddit (OP)
SS: This is the March forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, one of the leading forecasting institutions. The ensemble forecast has an unusually strong agreement that there will be an El Niño event starting later this year, and many of the potential forecast members even result in a very strong event with over 2C index anomaly. The last time such a strong El Niño occurred, 10 years ago, the world smashed the previous yearly global temperature record and this of course had many severe consequences. El Niños often act as "steps" on the temperature increase ladder, marking record years that never go back down to that of previous years even after the El Niños end.
StatementBot@reddit
As a final reminder, your post must include a valid submission statement within 30 min. Your post is missing a submission statement.
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sorry97@reddit
Faster than expected
Everyone, feign surprise!