Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably *not* postponed to 2027

Zen 6 and Nova Lake are probably not postponed to 2027

Posted by Voodoo2-SLi@reddit | hardware | View on Reddit | 47 comments

There are currently reports across the internet that Zen 6 (referring to the desktop version “Olympic Ridge”) and Nova Lake (again referring to the desktop version “NVL-S”) have been postponed until 2027, specifically CES 2027. In my opinion, these are misunderstandings and hasty assumptions. The basis for these reports is very weak in each case.

In the case of Zen 6, the original source (BenchLife) does not report a postponement at all. Rather, BenchLife mentions the Zen 6 date “2027” without further comment or explicit emphasis in a report on the core configurations of Zen 6. This is simply a different opinion on the launch date of Zen 6, but not a report of a postponement. A report about an actual postponement of Zen 6 should always be worth an explicit article from the original source. This has not happened; articles about postponements are exclusively interpretations by this source (BenchLife) or simply rewrites of other articles.

In the case of Nova Lake, it should be noted that CES is Intel's usual launch date for its broad product portfolio. Normally, the non-K models of the desktop portfolio and the complete mobile portfolio would be officially unveiled there. The K models of the desktop portfolio, on the other hand, would normally be launched in late fall of the previous year (i.e., 2026). Under certain circumstances, all statements from “NVL-S at CES 2027” may therefore only refer to the usual procedure – presentation of the broad portfolio at CES 2027. This does not mean that the K models will also only be launched at CES 2027, so this remains open. Until there is clear confirmation that this also refers to the K models, the matter remains open. However, it is not particularly likely that Intel will be unable to launch the K models in late fall 2026 if the broad portfolio is coming to CES 2027 anyway.

This does not mean that postponements are not possible. However, the available evidence is currently too weak to be certain about this.

Source: adapted from 3DCenter.org (aka my website)

[-]

gusthenewkid@reddit

The IO die and also the way the cores and said IO die have been massive improved. From what we know I’d expect 20% minimum, I’m thinking fully tuned we could see 30/40%.

[-]

Geddagod@reddit

I find this overly optimistic. What do we know that makes you expect 20% minimum? If there was around that percentage of a latency improvement in what we see in strix halo vs zen 5 DT, that could be a good baseline, but we see nothing of that sort.

[-]

gusthenewkid@reddit

Strix halo doesn’t have massively high clock speeds and the ram it uses has poor latency.

[-]

Geddagod@reddit

Mem latency isn't even much different than Strix Point.

[-]

gusthenewkid@reddit

But it’s much different to zen 5 with DDR5

[-]

Geddagod@reddit

Fair. That's a good point, I forgot about that.

But if it's also not faster than Strix Point, which uses similar speed LPDDR5....

Also, the fabric links are still only running at \~2GHz on both Strix Halo and Zen 5 DT.

[-]

Qesa@reddit

The key point is that it isn't slower than strix point. Previously the chiplet designs had worse latency than monolithic, when using the same memory. The new InFO chiplet doesn't.

[-]

gusthenewkid@reddit

I do see what you’re saying, I’m just hoping the increased speeds from the IO die and faster DDR5 make a massive difference.

[-]

Kougar@reddit

Haven't seen anything concrete, but I do expect a substantial improvement. Zen is still using a first-generation DDR5 controller designed five years ago. Even though AMD has already designed multiple generations of DDR5 controllers for EPYC & Threadripper since. First-gen IMCs have always always had low-hanging fruit left on the table, optimizations, and fixes that second gen IMCs benefit from.

cmrd_msr@reddit

A real (not paper) launch of new equipment in the near future is unlikely. TSMC is much more profitable simply churning out chips for AI accelerators while demand for them is still huge.

sinothepooh@reddit

From AMD's side, they need Consumer products to eat up the worst CCDs that cannot fit the server product. I think AM5 Zen 6 products will launch in 26 fall.

psydroid@reddit

Will people buy them?

I thought the AM4 platform was still outselling AM5, but maybe things have changed. I got my AM4 CPU and motherboard for €100 new last yearand I don't think any AM5 combination comes close.

black_shadow851@reddit

If you are talking about performance, then I’m afraid you are very wrong.

I am obviously not talking about absolute performance, but rather value for money. AM5 combos aren't that much faster to warrant multiple times the cost of what I paid for these AM4 combos.

But kudos to you for pointing out the obvious. My newest laptop has a Snapdragon X chip and my next one will with have a Snapdragon X2 or an Nvidia N1(X) chip.

urraca@reddit

They just can't switch out the CPU process and GPU process easily. They have foundries, facitilites and equipment made for certain procesess, CPUs and others for GPU/etc. It's not just changing a recipe.

Acrobatic_Fee_6974@reddit

Literally who cares? It's a few months difference, if I were in the market for either of these product lines, I would prefer them to release when they're ready than get rushed out the door with a bunch of bugs for the sake of a few months.

capybooya@reddit

9800X3D and 9950X3D released in Nov '24 and Mar '25 respectively, so if the X3D parts of Zen6 are released closer to the vanilla parts, it might not be much of a practical difference for a lot of enthusiasts.

werdsmart@reddit

I look forward to Microcenter Black Friday and Newegg Black Friday sales if they launch Zen 6 this Fall 2026 :)

Nobody wants a rushed product, but who says they would be rushed? Originally they were said to launch in 2026 anyway so I simply hope that's still the case.

The last couple years have been dead for new hardware launches so it'd be nice to get something new to geek out on. Also I have a 7700X that Stellaris is already maxing out, I need an X3D chip to deal with it.

Gaeldouche@reddit

we dont want to wait. the longer they take to delay a release the longer it takes for us to get price drops

EmilMR@reddit

Everybody that built with Alderlake/Rapotorlake 4-5 years, specially with Raptorlake got decent rate DDR5 at very good prices which they can swap into these new builds.

There is actually enough reasons to upgrade from Raptorlake with Novalake/Zen6 which will be good chunk faster and more efficient and like 4-5 years is a good enough time.

The RAM situation could actually be great for these people if it translate to deals on CPU/boards.

pmmlordraven@reddit

That's my boat. 12700KF, 64 Gb DDR5, wondering if I 9850X3d now or wait.

Historical-Star9991@reddit

Me. I have been using an i7-12700F for several years, already have DDR5 and can't wait to upgrade this gen.

IguassuIronman@reddit

Joke's on me, I got a DDR4 Alder Lake board...

Left-Leopard-3653@reddit

With DDR5 prices more expensive than the actual CPU/motherboard combined I couldn’t care less about Zen 6.

Lots of people already have DDR5

Yea but not all of us.

You snooze you lose. DDR5 was real cheap not long ago.

Unlikely-Today-3501@reddit

That's irrelevant if you have an AM4 platform. I really don't know who buys hardware and leaves it in a closet for years.

Upgrade while prices are low, it’s a very simple thing to do and with how volatile the market has been since crypto and covid this was always going to happen.

Lord_Muddbutter@reddit

I bought 192gb for 340 last year. You could get good ddr5 for 110 bucks

Plank_With_A_Nail_In@reddit

They aren't going to be buying a 3% better CPU in large numbers though.

ComplexEntertainer13@reddit

A lot of people are willing to upgrade from existing Zen 4/5 products due to the larger CCX.

The double CCX CPUs have scaling problems in gaming and some other workloads. But that doesn't mean they cap out at 8/16 cores and threads.

So getting 12 cores in a single CCX is the only real upgrade path for them if they want higher core count. Rumors are that the cache sizes are increased as well. So there might be a decent low thread performance uplift as well, at least if cache latency has been kept in check with the increase.

Zen5 non-3D had a very tiny performance increase over Zen4, so if Zen6 is anything like the increase from Zen3 to Zen4, yeah I suspect a lot of people might be interested in pulling the the trigger. At least people who have for example a 6c Zen4 non-3D.

I'm very excited for raising the baseline for cores in the CCX, but I'm not sure most people care except for enthusiasts. We've seen a real stagnation for how many cores are needed, both for games and for regular usage. If you asked me during the Zen3 generation (2020-2021) my guess would have been 8c would be a bottleneck in a very short time. Yet it isn't, even 6c performs quite well with just a tiny penalty in a minority of games. I'll take the win of raising the baseline, as Zen6 will definitely lead to raising the average number of cores for consumers, which will probably lead to more powerful software and innovation in the long run, but I'm not at all convinced most consumers will feel they need the higher core parts next year.

Nailed my use case. Early adopter on a 7700X, really could use an X3D chip to tame Stellaris but Zen 5 wasn't even a proper upgrade from Zen 4 so I'm ignoring the 9800X3D.

Am hoping Zen 6 makes up for four years of development time, along with a much improved non-first generation IMC. Zen 6 has all the potentials going for it to drop a nice performance improvement before factoring in the X3D upgrade. The extra cores & increased cache sizes would just be icing on the cake.

Merdiso@reddit

I literally bought a 9700X instead of 9800X3D a couple of months ago just to upgrade to Zen 6 X3D a bit later, those very fast 12-Cores one 1 CCD are way too spicy.

It is going to be a lot better than 3%. Both of these are huge increase in core count and IPC. Specially on Intel side, going from Alderlake to these will be a big upgrade.

Loose_Skill6641@reddit

I'm hoping mine doesn't die, I paid $350 for my kit, replacement cost is now $800

Shadow647@reddit

RAM usually has lifetime / 10 year warranty

Exactly, though there's no guarantee what they send back will be the same spec. Or even a matched kit. But at least it'll be something that runs.

It was cheap last year tho

I couldn’t care less about Zen 6.

A lot of people are willing to upgrade from existing Zen 4/5 products due to the larger CCX.

The double CCX CPUs have scaling problems in gaming and some other workloads. But that doesn't mean they cap out at 8/16 cores and threads.

So getting 12 cores in a single CCX is the only real upgrade path for them if they want higher core count.