The state of China's decade-long semiconductor push: still a decade behind, despite hundreds of billions spent and significant progress — examining the original 'Made in China 2025' initiative
Posted by donutloop@reddit | hardware | View on Reddit | 151 comments
Moikanyoloko@reddit
Despite the author calling it stretching the goals, having it be due for 2040 actually makes sense and considering China's rate of progress, seems reasonably feasible.
Ultimately, what it uses to justify the "decade behind" conclusion is EUV lithography, which is a pretty well known issue:
So, a nothingburger of an article as far as "news" are concerned, but it does provide a nice summary of Chinese policy for the last decade. The Chinese certainly know of the lithography issue and we're not aware of what projects they may have underway to circumvent that nor how successful these may be, but they're certainly trying something because this is a significant part of their state policy.
randomlurker124@reddit
China will have EUV within 5 years, mmw
Phantasmalicious@reddit
There is only one company on the planet able to produce the light source. Then 10 other companies that make that one certain part without EUV wouldnt work. China cant even make plane engines. I dont know what 5 years you are talking about…
HappyTune7569@reddit
You are joking right?
Approved-Toes-2506@reddit
"One company that can produce the light source"
China has had an EUV light source from CIOMP since 2022. Even Reuters admitted it.
Phantasmalicious@reddit
Yeah, six times weaker than ASML. I didnt mention it because you are comparing a pointer to an industrial laser cutter.
Approved-Toes-2506@reddit
It's ready for 2028, your knowledge is ass cheeks
Approved-Toes-2506@reddit
That was LDP which only entered testing in Q3 2025, Reuters is already out of the loop on that one.
Their LPP light source is the main effort at the moment. Development reports show that it's not the bottleneck anymore. It's all public information, Korean and Taiwanese industry insiders on X and domestic platforms talk about it regularly.
Roxalon_Prime@reddit
China is always two decades behind and then 15 years later they are three decades ahead. That's like happens every time and people never learn
Strazdas1@reddit
It doesnt. People just like to buy into the propaganda they are three decades ahead but actually all they are is cheaper version of same thing.
random_account6721@reddit
Even if they could build an EUV machine within 5 years, that doesn’t mean they can economically produce chips at scale. Intel has access to the same euv machine as tsmc and still lost
randomlurker124@reddit
I think they will be capable of producing chips at the 2nm node, at commercial scale, but of course no one knows if the chips will be commercially competitive (ie as efficient/powerful etc) as intel/Nvidia/AMD etc designs. Chip designing is another different competition altogether
EventAccomplished976@reddit
They don‘t need to be competitive on the world market if they are only sold on the chinese market (as long as the western high end chips aren‘t available there due to embargoes).
random_account6721@reddit
I’m talking about fabrication capabilities. Intel fabricates their own chips and has access to euv machines from asml and still struggles against tsmc
randomlurker124@reddit
What do you mean? Intel is selling 18A chips that they fabricate. Competition is competition. What I mean is that China has the capability to fabricate. Not whether they have the "best" capability.
siazdghw@reddit
EUV isn't just a machine that ASML makes from off the shelf parts with a secret diagram. It requires the best engineering from a dozen different companies with decades of experience that will all be hit with embargos like ASML if China is able to design their own EUV machines.
China getting EUV of their own is inevitable, but still a decade away, and in that time ASML isn't going to stop advancing.
Approved-Toes-2506@reddit
It's less than a decade away.
Reuters said the LPP prototype is going to be making chips in 2028-2030 whilst the Dongguan LDP prototype has already undergone testing.
ASML's EUV isn't magic. Components like optics and oscilloscopes have already been revealed to the public, and they are just as important as the scanner.
Approved-Toes-2506@reddit
Most people are very uninformed about what is happening with Chinese EUV.
Chinese, Taiwanese and Korea industry insiders all have a good understanding of the covert operations such as LPP, LDP and auxiliary tech like oscilloscopes and metrology.
Outside of that, only a few people on X talk about it every now and then.
its_not_real1947@reddit
they wouldn't be behind if the US hadn't exerted enormous pressure on the netherlands to block the export of a completed EUV machine to SMIC. SMIC places an order in september 2018 and the US burns down their supplier later in december to prevent the machine from being shipped.
cstar1996@reddit
Buying ASML hardware that is dependent on US tech and US patents isn’t catching up. Especially when that is all export controlled tech.
JapariParkRanger@reddit
It would allow them to examine a working implementation of such a machine, which is pretty huge. It's like an egg of Columbus.
cstar1996@reddit
Sure, but “China would have caught up if they’d been allowed to steal EUV” doesn’t really make the “America is being mean and unfair to China” case the person I replied to was pushing.
NiewinterNacht@reddit
The US needs these machines as well, seems the US has some catching up to do as well, because buying European machines means the US doesn't actually have the capability it claims to have.
ComplexEntertainer13@reddit
Except EUV is a joint development by the "west".
Intel, Samsung and TSMC all helped ASML fund the project. There is also IP reliance to build these machines that all the major countries hold. Can't be built without US IP and tech.
EUV as a technology is not the product of Europe or ASML. It's a product of the western semi space.
wulfgar_beornegar@reddit
Competition is good, but what you're describing the West of doing is actually extremely anti competitive. They wanted to buy the machine and reverse engineer its inner workings, probably because Western countries refused to license it to them under the guise of "security". Gotta have that boogeyman scapegoat to distract from the fact that Western Neoliberalism has been slowly collapsing for decades now like flan in a cupboard.
skhds@reddit
umm since when has Samsung and TSMC become "West"? Are you implying every country not China is West?
EventAccomplished976@reddit
Taiwan and Japan are certainly part of the western alliance block, as in they align their foreign policy goals with those of the US.
skhds@reddit
wulfgar_beornegar@reddit
Ask the person I was replying to.
varateshh@reddit
Yes it is anti competitive to hand over a competitive advantage to a geopolitical rival. Perhaps you want the west to hand over the material technology used in the latest jet engines as well? China had already been caught attempting industrial espionage.
wulfgar_beornegar@reddit
The US and other countries engage in the same practice. There's no point to the "China theft" narrative when it's obvious the US is a country ruled by sociopathic pedophiles that views even its allies in a very hostile fashion, much less the sinophobia they constantly push out to manufacture consent for a fascist surveillance state. If the US wasn't the way it is and has been, I'd argue your argument about military security rang true, but military security is ACTUALLY about national security and lithography by itself is not. I see how you tried to sneak that one in there, as if fighter jet tech is comparable to silicon fabrication, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ENORMOUS FAVOR THAT CHINA HAS DONE FOR THE US IN TERMS OF PROVIDING INFINITE AMOUNTS OF CHEAP GOODS.
varateshh@reddit
You lack reading comprehension. No where did I specify it was fighter jet tech. I said material technology used in the latest jet engines.
Specifically, Chinese have been caught at attempting industrial espionage against the General Electric GE9X passenger jet engine. They have also attempted to do with the most trivial industrial technologies. The only purpose of the Ministry of State Security Sixth Bureau is to engage in industrial espionage.
wulfgar_beornegar@reddit
There isn't a lack of reading comprehension on my part, you're lacking geopolitical comprehension yourself. China wanted to BUY the machine, which is fair game. Especially considering how expensive they are. That's normal competition. I think your brain has been rotted by pro Western and anti Chinese propaganda. Framing all this as if China trying to compete legitimately is bad. It's the same rhetoric and framing you see from Neoliberal media and it's anti competitive and bad faith.
cstar1996@reddit
EUV is dependent on American tech as well as European tech. Europe can’t build them without America and America can’t build them without Europe.
wulfgar_beornegar@reddit
It's not stealing if they bought the damn machine. Those things are ungodly expensive.
PreWiBa@reddit
"examining a working implementation" is a really nice substite for "IP theft".
JapariParkRanger@reddit
Even if you don't infringe, seeing a problem solved one way and the working results can guide other solutions.
SimpleNovelty@reddit
It's still basically piggy backing off the work of other countries.
zxyzyxz@reddit
Yeah just like how America stole a bunch of IP from the British during the 18th and 19th century right?
"Stealing IP" is how all progress goes.
JapariParkRanger@reddit
That's how all progress is done. You need to be making stronger arguments against China if you want to convince anyone.
SimpleNovelty@reddit
Convince anyone of what? The point was to not let China advance as fast using existing US advanced and it worked.
JapariParkRanger@reddit
Please state clearly the point of your original response, then. What was your purpose in stating this?
SimpleNovelty@reddit
I guess it's more "is it fair to use your opponents homework in a competitive environment"? Though they should absolutely do it if possible because fairness isn't as important to a country as it's position/security. The advantage of having a working system gives a huge advantage regardless of even if they don't legally infringe on the IP like you said. It's still taking ideas/concepts from the original solution, and in a competitive environment you don't want to give anything to the competition if possible. Ideally you shouldn't be dependent on your competition to catch up, though it's a great shortcut.
its_not_real1947@reddit
cstar1996@reddit
And? I can tell you as someone who worked on EUV at ASML, the US tech and patents are export controlled beyond Wassenaar.
its_not_real1947@reddit
super duper plus controls!!
cstar1996@reddit
Wassenaar isn’t law, US export controls are.
its_not_real1947@reddit
blah blah blah my woke export controls vs. yours
RealAmaranth@reddit
https://www.eetimes.com/u-s-gives-ok-to-asml-on-euv-effort/ from 1999 shows when the agreement happened, it has nothing to do with Wassenaar.
NiewinterNacht@reddit
That seems to be European tech, but point still stands.
Jeep-Eep@reddit
Plain up, given how much of a PTA the USA is right now, the the Netherlands should have them sent a fully functional EUV rig as a diplomatic gift.
Haunting-Public-23@reddit
Many worry about this state-sponsored tech race.
I <3 the competition as it means leading edge nodes at the current or faster clip without possibility of hitting a wall before 2040.
Master_Put_6283@reddit
and as someone that still lives in the third world competition in that space is great
Dimogas@reddit
Its just crazy how close we got as humans to physicsl limits on this universe already to build such crazy chips
Imagine how slow pcs were at 2000 and compare with the technology now.
4090, 82Tflops vs a super computer in 2000 with 5 Tflops which is a huge computer
dirtyid@reddit
Don't have access to full article, but stretching goals is really recalibrating after HW / semi export controls and PRC decided to go full semi autarky and indigenize the entire integrated circuits supply chain - only country to do so, out of necessity.
1st big fund and national semi strategy focused on buying western equipment and fabbing, there wasn't any real consideration on domestic semi equipment. US export controls force the pivot from buying to building, i.e. in 2020 PRC elevated integrated circuits to 1st level discipline, factor in program length they started adding 30-40k new talent per year post 2023/4 hence why PRC semi seems to be cooking all of a sudden.
This point needs emphasis, PRC basically only started mass accumulating semi equipment talent in the last couple years. Masters/Phd specialists trickling in now, a few more years / cohorts is really where we can expect talent inflection point and PRC speed to take off / beat western estimates.
Ultimately PRC didn't expect to be "decade behind" in the sense that they (naively) didn't expect to be cut off from western semi, now they're "only" a decade behind in the sense they'll likely catch up sooner than later, and then west has to deal with the very uncomfortable reality that PRC talent pipeline brrrting semi talent makes them the only semi player without 100,000s of talent shortage in medium/long term. Don't be surprised in mid 2030s western semi is going to start asking hard questions of how to compete against PRC semi with entire vertically integrated semi industrial chain and 2x more talent that's going to chip semi from 50-75% margin industry into commodity tier that requires 100s of billions in structural subsidies to keep up with leading edge R&D.
ju2au@reddit
The first 7nm chip was introduced in 2017. So, if China can achieve 7nm by next year then that's enough to satisfy the vast majority of their needs. You only need advanced 5nm or less chips for high-end mobile phones and PCs; 7nm is actually fine for most consumers.
So, it was money well spent in my opinion if it breaks the Western technology sanctions on China.
WhoTheHeckKnowsWhy@reddit
China already achived 7nm long ago and had it in mass production by mid 2021 for mining machines, and phones by 2023, now they are on a quasi 5nm super refined 7nm node. The problem is they are hitting the limits of DUV quadpatterning at 5nm.
Not a terrible place to be, but will def be something they are stuck with till they hack how a decent domestic EUV machine, given all the ASML engineers they poached and extremely advanced mirror industry, they are not out of cards on that front either. Prob will be loosely analagous timeline to Intels woes with 10nm, it will take a long while but will be overcome.
Strazdas1@reddit
China does not have 7 nm today. They have quad pattering hack that looks like 7nm to people not familiar with the tech. Quadpattering will never be a viable solution. Just see how much damage it did when Intel tried it.
marcost2@reddit
Do you have the netherlands lab article?
I remember way back in 21 when the first die shots were leaked the density was too low to even be considered 7nm class and was barely even competitive with 10nm class nodes, but after that i kind of stopped paying attention so it would be nice to see another analysis of a more mature result
kyralfie@reddit
Is quad patterning confirmed for the latest N+3 node? Because back in the day TSMC considered a slightly relaxed version of their N5 node using DUV double patterning - https://semiwiki.com/lithography/347246-application-specific-lithography-patterning-5nm-5-5-track-metal-by-duv/
WhoTheHeckKnowsWhy@reddit
well there you go, someone always knows more. Cheers for the read. I did wonder why TSMC seemed less impressed by the latest and greatest lithography than Intel whom were the first to adopt high NA.
CVGPi@reddit
Never mind the fact most military uses are several generations behind to use “dependable and tested” technology.
For the vast majority of usages 10nm is enough.
anor_wondo@reddit
there's new studies coming out about bit flips in sub 7nm that might make them useless in mission critical infrastructure anyways
oldsecondhand@reddit
Small node semiconductors being more sensitive to radiation isn't exactly new research.
Strazdas1@reddit
majority of bit flips are not caused by radiation.
anor_wondo@reddit
You do know how science works? The concept may not be new but we have proper studies where it has been observed and quantified at a large scale
Strazdas1@reddit
error correction in storage and CPU is very good nowadays, this wont be an issue. Now if only we also at least tried to do that in memory....
Strazdas1@reddit
most military uses are cutting edge now. Real time data processing is a lot more chip-hungry than things like balistic controls that are fine on outdated nodes. You are crunching sattelite imagery real time to track targets with predicted routes. and thats just the most simplest of uses.
minsheng@reddit
The whole military doesn’t need advanced semiconductors narrative is meaningless if the demand for compute is strong enough. And we are definitely seeing stronger than ever demand for edge super computers.
PainterRude1394@reddit
Yep. Do people thing military hardware is designed on paper by hand?
CrashedMyCommodore@reddit
There's a whole market for ancient lithography with a lot of smaller players
Stuff like the Z80 and the like sell in droves for industrial and military applications
Advanced-Bison-99@reddit
Over on X and Korean industry forums, it seems like YMTC has prepared a fully domestic lithography line for its processes.
Whilst not making 7nm chips, they are still are a huge company and it would explain why their orders of ASML machines have dropped to basically nothing since 2024.
randomlurker124@reddit
China already has 7nm, like back in 2022. It was commercialised in Huawei's phones back in 2023 (so 100% home grown given Huawei sanctions). The article is inaccurate, China is maybe 3-5 years behind now. The moment they figure out euv tech (and they already have prototypes) they'll catch up and commercialise within 1 year.
ju2au@reddit
I believe that they were still using western-made DUV machines to achieve that 7nm record.
Right now, the focus is on completely indigenous production with zero foreign inputs and that takes more time.
KARMAAACS@reddit
I think China probably don't care where the machines come from, they care only whether they can make a competitive node or not.
BTW any 'Chinese DUV machine', is more than likely just a reverse engineered one built in China, it's about as Chinese as a Hamburger. It will be much the same with EUV machines, they're already reverse engineering them and also stealing engineers. The interesting bit is if China can progress beyond reverse engineered EUV on their own and become a leader in the sector and make their own breakthroughs before the West.
StarbeamII@reddit
It prevents them from scaling and expanding if they can’t buy more ASML DUV machines.
KARMAAACS@reddit
Where did I say anything about them not scaling and expanding? No where. Of course their goal is to expand and scale. My point was that China doesn't care where they get EUV or DUV machines from whether they get them from Mexico, Netherlands, the Moon, Aliens Beam them a few down, or whether they make them themselves... so long as their fabs get enough of them and are progressing to node parity or supremacy, that's all that matters to China.
hackenclaw@reddit
infact a large percentage of world semiconductor are still make from 7nm node and larger. If China wanted the EUV, all they need is to bulldoze the entire market that is larger than 7nm.
ASML & others are still relying on these old node income to partially fund the expensive R&D needed to move lower than 2nm. If their income is affected, their R&D budget will be affect, that also mean th eir pace of moving forward is also affected. China will catch up easier, and at some point you got no money left but to be hand over your IP on a silver plate for money.
If they want to stop this, the western semiconductor need to make sub-EUV 5nm cheap enough for everything else even the less important ICs.
WhoTheHeckKnowsWhy@reddit
China already achived 7nm in 2021, now they are on a quasi 5nm super refined 7nm node.
WendyVBaby@reddit
One thing that often gets missed in these discussions is that “a decade behind” doesn’t mean irrelevant, especially in semiconductors.
China’s push under Made in China 2025 was never just about catching up overnight on bleeding-edge EUV nodes. It was about:
• Building domestic supply chain resilience
• Reducing dependency on U.S./allied exports
• Scaling mature-node production for autos, industrial, IoT, etc.
• Developing national champions over a 10–20 year horizon
Even if they’re behind at the leading edge, they’ve made real progress in packaging, design tools adaptation, mature nodes, and vertical integration.
From a U.S. competitiveness standpoint, the bigger strategic question isn’t “are they still behind?”, it’s whether restricting companies like NVIDIA from selling into China accelerates local substitution.
Semiconductor ecosystems scale with volume. If U.S. firms lose sustained access to the Chinese market, that revenue and feedback loop doesn’t just disappear, it often funds domestic alternatives.
The long game in chips isn’t binary. It’s about who maintains global integration and who gets pushed into parallel tech stacks.
DayTrader_Dav@reddit
China’s still behind on advanced nodes, sure, but progress is insane... legacy chips taking huge global share, HBM3 domestic coming 2026, gov forcing 50%+ local tools now. Push domestic demand/production harder and speed only ramps up. Banning H200 exports just speeds up their self-reliance, bad move for US market share & revenue. Better to sell with strings attached and take the money
AnechoidalChamber@reddit
With the sanctions making them unable to buy recent ASML machines, no wonder.
Had the sanctions not been there, they'd probably be at or close to parity by now.
Sufficient_Loss9301@reddit
Good. China has made it clear that they are unwilling to cooperate or even act decently to the majority of the free world powers. If China had achieved their semi conductor goals it’s likely they would have invaded Taiwan by now and thrown the planet into a global war.
tmihee@reddit
Western propaganda machine working as intended for this one
Sufficient_Loss9301@reddit
Ok. Why would anyone who lives in a country with a democracy, human rights, or free speech want to see a country like China that would gladly subvert those things given the opportunity to have more power? Is basic logic propaganda now or are you really that dense?
Sudden-Safety-6523@reddit
Democracy and human rights he says 😂😂😂 while he lives in the US
Sophia8Inches@reddit
Yes, USA is a country with a very robust democratic system. Unlike China, which is a one party dictatorship that engages in a literal genocide as we're speaking right now, google "Uighur concentration camps"
SleepingAddict@reddit
A system so robust that billionaire paedophiles run the country and nobody dares to prosecute them 😭😂. Honestly reading these types of responses always gets me wondering how people like you even live life just simply regurgitating what you're fed
ArmNo5211@reddit
Probably a CIA
StickiStickman@reddit
Ahaha. Oh wait, you're serious?
😂
celloh234@reddit
You should google genocide in israel and who is funding it for the past 100 years. You should also google u.s's illegal invasion of iraq and all the shit they did in middle east. You can even look up how us fucking kidnapped president of venezuela
An americhud has no right to talk about democracy and human rights
Sufficient_Loss9301@reddit
Whataboutism at its finest. Looking at things so one dimensionally is a classic mark of unintelligence, more than one thing can be bad simultaneously you door knob. Also the US may not be in its best spot rn but you know what’s great about democracies? In 3 years we’ll have someone new and by all accounts it’s not looking good for the republicans.
WhoTheHeckKnowsWhy@reddit
the only people whom get buttmad at whataboutism are the bigger hypocrites.
randomlurker124@reddit
!updateme 3 years
AoeDreaMEr@reddit
Lol
Madboomstick101@reddit
Lmao even
After_List_6026@reddit
This one especially, anyway in the future, forms of democracy will prevail over China sooner or later then as people there demand more rights and free speech from the state.
croatiancroc@reddit
Yet that free world continues to buy trillion dollars of goods from that oppressive country, and is fine doing it. It's concern for freedom and democracy only wakes up when it's own technical advantage is being challenged.
sizz@reddit
You remind me when the Russians throwing a tantrums about losing starlink access, suffering massive casualties in the process.
Anyway there is an official term that Russia and China uses for this person behind this comment.
"Useful Idiots"
StickiStickman@reddit
The US' favourite excuse for racism and blatant anti-competetive actions for the last 20 years.
Meanwhile, I can think of a country actually regularly invading others and very much provoking a world war.
Comfortable_Bike3247@reddit
Hypocrite
sizz@reddit
It's just video games, find a new hobby. I know this because I can do everything like watching YouTube, surf the internet, programming, etc on a raspberry pi 5 just fine.
mictar@reddit
I can buy decent Chinese SSDs and RAM, whereas 10 years ago that was not the case.
OldPostageScale@reddit
Semiconductors are on a whole different level. DRAM is essentially a commodity at this point.
skhds@reddit
It's not that simple. Otherwise, you would have had much more companies making DRAMs. There are only three companies that properly do it (Samsung, Hynix, Micron).
The key difficulty is making one at a cheap cost, while being reliable. As far as I know, Chinese companies are having difficulty producing either DRAM or NAND at high yields, so they're basically losing money selling them. They only stay afloat because of their government dumping money on them, but who knows how long they can last. So many companies went bankrupt playing the chicken game with DRAM historically (hence why there are only three companies remaining).
TK3600@reddit
'commodity'
OldPostageScale@reddit
That is the correct spelling.
TK3600@reddit
it sure does not cost like one
1731799517@reddit
Its not a statement of cost or value, its the interchangeability. Gold is a commodity.
OldPostageScale@reddit
Everything is beholden to supply and demand. We're experiencing a demand shock right now and that's why prices are so high. Supply will catch up if this demand is a long-term trend and not a short-term adjustment.
shing3232@reddit
DRAM is a type of semiconductor.
OldPostageScale@reddit
I was referring to CPUs which are much more complex, but you are right.
Typical-Yogurt-1992@reddit
A 100 mm\^2 HBM module is said to cost nearly ten times as much as a CPU of the same size. Even accounting for its 12-layer stack, the value per silicon area is now approaching that of a CPU. This suggests that DRAM may no longer be a mere commodity.
shing3232@reddit
TBH, There would be more direct integration of DRAM onto CPU so package tech would be a lot more important when the linear process improvement is slower.
neverpost4@reddit
DRAM was a commodity for a long time. In the 1990s, there were more than a dozen DRAM manufacturers. Heck, even Thailand and Japan were on the list.
All except the 3, all were squeezed out.
With the requirements for HBM, it is in fact more technically driven now.
Phantasmalicious@reddit
You can also buy Polish RAM and SSDs. Not really the high tech achievement these days.
Horizonspy@reddit
These are Polish RAM/SSD with SK Hynix NAND/Chips, unlike YMTC and CXMT who fabricate their own NAND/Chip for their memories.
Polar_Banny@reddit
Well, don’t worry Apple alone invented more than $50 billion a year into China by training those engineers and transferring valuable IP, also don’t forget that China is well known for industrial espionage and theft.
Cbrandel@reddit
So is the US.
cstar1996@reddit
Examples needed.
likesaloevera@reddit
Look back in time to when the US was a new country and the level of industrial espionage it committed against Britain.
Not making a value judgment, basically everyone everywhere has done it to varying degrees to catch up or get ahead
cstar1996@reddit
So what actual examples are you referring to?
wqfi@reddit
V2 rocket & the flying wing from ww2 germany, & the Whole country from the natives
cstar1996@reddit
Jack Northrop invented the flying wing. And winning a war isn’t industrial espionage.
wqfi@reddit
What does it matter, It's all pointless talking points now, they turned it into real industry that can't be sued to ground, we can hurl as many insults but it doesn't matter
Polar_Banny@reddit
I’m not insulting, I pointed out obvious facts, you better ask yourself how did China got access to trade with rest of the world?
wqfi@reddit
And then what
MaverickPT@reddit
I don't the u/Polar_Banny meant it as an insult, but more as in "well, they have also now acquired _a lot_ of IP from Apple which they will definitely take advantage of, or way or another." At least was my interpretation
tooltalk01@reddit
The key problem with Apple isn't that they transferred their own IP, rather there are allegations that they supplied their suppliers' IP to cut down their cost and please Beijing.
Blueberryburntpie@reddit
And AI datacenter companies would find ways to bypass import bans. Or just blatantly ignore the bans and ship them in clearly marked "sanctioned goods, to be delivered to OpenAI" boxes with a phone number to the White House.
R-ten-K@reddit
Why is it so many white boys, that never worked in engineering industry in any significant capacity, think a country of 1 billion+ people that graduates the largest volume of STEM per year can only "copy"
Is it racism? projection? insecurity? LOL
tooltalk01@reddit
Why do you think a country of 1 billion+ people couldn't develop their own semiconductors, batteries, or EVs before 2001?
R-ten-K@reddit
China's growth only looks like a mystery to people, who likely have never set foot on a top engineering/science department, read the last names in the proceedings from most top conferences in CE/EE/VLSI, or worked at any major tech enterprise.
tooltalk01@reddit
I already explained how it works. Let me ask again, where was China's home-grown tech industry before the WTO? I'm not sure why you are trying so hard to create a laughable narrative that China's tech industry was organic or driven by innovation.
R-ten-K@reddit
You explaining something you don't understand is not as authoritative as you think it is.
tooltalk01@reddit
Sure, I'm not trying to be authoratative, I'm just laughing at another absurd narrative from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Propaganda.
StringPuzzleheaded18@reddit
Because copying is in their culture
R-ten-K@reddit
so all 3. Got it.
ravenhawk10@reddit
The only thing being invented here is that number. No way apple invested a quarter of global revenue into china.
tooltalk01@reddit
Apple's 2025 global revenue was over $400B and $50B is less than a 1/8 of that.
ravenhawk10@reddit
That 50b per year figure is for 2015-2019. it’s from Patrick McGees book.
tooltalk01@reddit
Sure, Apple was spending almost that much on iPhone BOM alone back in 2015. It was still about 1/5 of the company's global revenue and after the company had consolidated much of its manufacturing in China.
An impact study/claim can be too clever, but Apple was already spending billions on training 3M workers, in addition to many more billions on cutting-edge equipment and machinery, which by this time passed $44B in 2016 from $2B in 2009.
atape_1@reddit
Well you see you forgot one thing, Apple does not manufacture neither the RAM or NAND.
Fresh-Toilet-Soup@reddit
Only 10 years behind with such a late start isn't that bad. We easterners shouldn't be too cocky, they may catch up
Zarmazarma@reddit
This is a hot button topic, but honestly Tom's Hardware isn't even far off. Everytime China makes progress, some people on /r/hardware pop up and say, "See! All those people who said China was 20 years behind were wrong!"- but the thing is, time has been moving forward.
I've been on this sub for like 8 years ago. Back then we were also all saying, "China is 15 years behind". Well, guess what - 8 years have passed, and now were saying they might catch up in the mid to late 2030s. Do the math on that.
Point is, saying China would take 15-20 years to catch up to the West back in 2017 wasn't a pessimistic prediction at all. No one can actually see that far into the future in an industry like semiconductors which changes rapidly, but it's mostly panned out. There were people back then saying "five years, mark my words" too, and they were wrong. The people who took a more conservative position by still acknowledged China catching up as an inevitably are still the ones who had the most reasonable prediction. And for some reason, people pretend like the claim they made 8 years ago was still made today.
My position hasn't changed at all. China's not going to have CPUs or GPUs that compete with Western alternatives by 2030. 2035-2040? Quite possible, that's far enough out that anything could happen, and at least seems more likely with their current trajectory.
RollingTater@reddit
Honestly by any measure their made in 2025 thing has been widely successful. It's why they are so far ahead in renewables, EVs, robotics, memory, etc. High end chips is just a last but hard item on the list that may be late will come eventually, but overall this type of leadership and planning is what we need here.
Significant_Law_137@reddit
If after hundreds of billions and a decade of focus they’re still structurally behind at the leading edge, that tells you how hard this stack really is.
Advanced semis aren’t just fabs, they’re IP, tooling, software ecosystems, talent density, supply chains, and iteration speed. That’s why Nvidia’s position is so durable. It’s not just about chips; it’s CUDA, developer lock-in, hyperscaler relationships, and being embedded at the center of the AI compute layer.
Capital alone doesn’t close that gap quickly. Ecosystem advantage compounds.
SilverKnightOfMagic@reddit
lol I love how they downplay it. being only ten years behind is insane progress.
Immediate_Character-@reddit
Even decade old nodes produced at their scale embarrasses Micron/Globalfoundries, and Intel remains the only relevant "cutting edge" fab in the US — who remains irrelevant to any other company.
Vast-Sheepherder9702@reddit
Honestly, it’s kind of wild. China needs U.S. chips especially Nvidia’s GPUs because they’re simply the best at powering AI and advanced computing. Nvidia could easily meet that huge demand, but U.S. restrictions stop the flow. So you’ve got this strange situation: America makes the most advanced chips, China is desperate to buy them, and yet the U.S. blocks the sales. It feels like economics is taking a back seat to politics here. What a shame!
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