Yuo, the exponential growth phase has begun. Unfortunately the prepper types still living in a hopium fantasy of linear climate change with political, social, or economic collapse their likely collapse scenario. They are all in for a rude awakening once they realize the forsts dont have enough animals to feed even the most ardent preppers.
I don't know how you can say this with such certainty. If you were alive in 1998 you might have said the same thing, or hell in 2016, the previous hottest year, which certainly has not led to "exponential growth". One or two years is not a trend, it's statistical noise. Is this year fucked? Yes. But tell me how you know its not another 1998 or 2016, but the start of a new phase. The answer is that you don't, you're just in a personal psychological doom loop. Things are going to be bad enough as it is, you don't have to invent some exponential growth fantasy that has literally zero scientific support.
Jesus. This place is full of absolute nuts.
We know it's not another 1988 because what the scientists have been predicting is happening way ahead of schedule. "sOuRcEs"
IPCC buddy, you know exactly where to go. It does require a bit of critical thinking to put it all together though, so good luck with that.
I will repeat, there is absolutely no science that backs up the idea of "exponential growth". None. The rate of temperature rise will increase due to our greater output of co2 and feedbacks, but it will never be anything close to exponential. This is a completely made up idea.
The crazy part is we are only marching deeper now. *This* feels like a lot, and yet it may be the most mild summer we experience over the next 5 years. Over the next 10, 20. It’s just a (hopefully) slow march towards chaos.
Prepping makes sense for the natural disasters we will face in the near to ?mid term future (e.g. a wet bulb event accompanied by power failure). Preppers have a better chance for riding a disaster out and surviving until the next calamity.
That makes sense. Im talking more about the doomsday preppers with their guns and bunkers and wearhouses of food types. Would be nice if we had a different term for them. Upvote given.
A lot of the people who prep in that way don't believe climate change is real so...yeah good luck with that, guys.
A bunker in Texas ain't going to be a great place to live come 2050.
What would the word be for “preparing the best we can to reduce suffering?” I’m not delusional enough to full-on prep for an unlivable world, but I would like to give my kids the opportunity to survive long enough to experience basic joys like finding love.
I'd call it chemocopium lol, like treating terminal cancer patient with chemo, prolong it enough and *maybe* they'll luck out to some comforts of life. Or they submit and you've extended their suffering for nothing, which has a higher likelyhood.
Like the sunken cost fallacy, the time you spent suffering doesn't guarantee an equilibrium of happiness. I can't speak for whatever opportunities you're providing but it's up to your kids to weigh it.
Are you serious? Scientists have been pretty spot on with their predictions, except for the faster than expected part. I think you have simply not been paying attention.
Well if you pay attention, scientists themselves say that once we go through the early massive changes such as Gulf Stream collapse, we will enter a new system which we don’t have the models to accurately predict. We’ve been studying and living in a mostly stable system for so long that once some big known quantities change, it could change the whole game in ways we can’t perceive yet.
So you think we can surive those changes? Wow, you are seriously coked out on hopium friend. You are overlooking poly crisis and human nature. Have fun when the hopium wears off. Glad i wont be around you as it wont be pretty.
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Not in a climate changed world. Past success doesn't guarantee future success. It's like people lose all sense of what climate change will do when talking about adapting to it. They look at the past and revel in our glory days, completely forgetting that none of that will apply to the new normals of heat domes, flooding, unseasonable frosts, etc. You can't grow enough food underground and a cave isnt going to save your crops in the field or the animals one would want to hunt. In most places, starving people will hunt the food to extinction, leaving little for any cave dwelling people. Our ancient ancestors had a bounty of food coming from forests being chopped down or hollowed out by killing off all the animals living in it...thay will be exhausted. Cave talk relies on tons of assumptions that will no longer apply. It's either human arrogance or just not thinking hard about the scenarios in question that are typically the logic flaws when people say things like living in a cave. Just because some scifi show has people living underground doesnt mean it's possible for a civilization.
Deserts have this thing called flooding. It's a thing that happens more and more in our changing climate. Also, looking at past successes and expecting the same in a changing climate is setting yourself up for disappointment.
It can work if your cave system has access to underground springs, you can grow some types of crops that are heat tolerant, caves keep the temps steady year round. I used to sleep in caves when camping if you can clear out the bats its very comfortable temp wise
It’s not. Tunneling is surprisingly expensive, you’re talking 10’s of billion of dollars just to build a short tunnel for a highway. Growing food is an even bigger problem. There’s about 900,000,000 acres of farmland in the US, that’s nearly 3 acres a person. Sure we export food but we import it too. Even with vertical farming the space needed to feed 1,000 people would be minimum 200 acres and a lot of staples can’t be grown hydroponically or in terraces. Fat is a major concern too, veggies are too low in fat to survive on.
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It’s crazy to think it won’t stop warming for at least 1,000 years. It’ll take a long time to stabilize the new climate. And it’ll just keep getting hotter and hotter. Probably +10c by the time all the arctic and Antarctic releases their methane and carbon .
I’m becoming more and more convinced that humans will not survive another 1,000 years.
Just to be clear, I mean there will be zero humans left on earth.
That's true in the sense of that the quantity required to support an 8+ billion person globalized ff-based economy won't be attainable for much longer, sure -- but we're talking about a situation when there are a few million people left at the tail end of the century and such resources will be tightly controlled, but available and will stretch a bit further,.
in theory sure, in reality no way in hell. Unless we also somehow managed to preserve all the specific skills set needed from extraction to refinement and transportation. Look at Afghanistan. They have a all the ability of today's world and cant keep the military hardware they have up and running at all. Once the supply chain breaks down you realize HOW complicated all the current machinery is.
>but we're talking about a situation when there are a few million people remaining in a fully mission-orientated and mobilized economy
Sir/Ma'am in trying not to be rude here, but how are we depopulating the earth by 99% and arriving at a "few people who will be mission orientated"? in any way that ensures that the right skill sets and knowledge gets preserved? let alone that all the equipment is also maintained? Or is this a select group of specialist completely operating in the shadow that gets spared from any impacts of the world slowing down?
Well it's not going to be the spirit of cooperation and kumbaya that brings it together. It will likely be a totalitarian regime of some sort, walled into some tract of remaining arable land for 40-50 years, like Siberia or northern Canada, watching everyone else kill eachother or starve and killing everyone who comes close that isn't invited. They'll have +40-50 years of scientific and technology progress and materials stockpiles plundered worldwide.
The alternate to this is assuming that orgs like I.e. The United States/CCP military will just scatter to the winds or be destroyed in conflict. Which are possible too I suppose but less likely IMO than them bunkering in.
ok, so the US survives mostly in take and they bunker in. where ae they sending that shale oil for refinement, how are they getting it to refine? how are they getting cobalt from the mines in africa (or lithium)? Most of the rare earth metals are notin the USA, where are they getting those. The USA doe not refine enough nuke fuel to keep those running, where are they getting that? Until the chip factories are built were are we getting microchips that all modern tech requires for?
Most people don not understand the current global supply chain or why its so rare (aka only after ww2 and the US becoming the globs ocean police).
Hell, covid happened and it took 2ish years for the supply chains to stabilize. And that was without major wars breaking out and everyone basically working together to solve the issue. You think something as simple as depopulation by 90% is going to be controlled in some way that allows modern life to just roll on? I just dont see it.
I'm not saying 90% of humanity depopulates. I'm saying 99.99999% does. There are thousands of people at the bottleneck in this scenario, not millions, not 10s of millions. They aren't refining cobalt.
Well I'm not sure how hopeful it is really - you and me and other people who love drugs won't be in these tiny populations of surviving humans, it'll be the absolute worst of the worst of humanity that gets that honor. They'll survive on the corpse of the planet forever -- a smear that will foul the earth far longer than a total extinction would.
Well said. I keep thinking this myself. Most people who survive will have to do horeible things to get there. Aka the most ardent survivalists will quickly turn into monster humans and i dont want to be around to witness it. The prepping for a biosphere collapse mentality is a mixed drink or arrogance, stupidity, lack of critical thinking, and pure selfishness.
depends on where it's at and when it is -- nuclear, geothermal, maybe fusion depending on when it happens. It'll be mostly government and families, high ranking military, wealthy and connected etc -- they'll have provisions for generations, these facilities are already built.
Well they'll be supported by the last and greatest final push of 21st century human production -- it's not going to be like amish folks in the wilderness. It'll be the entire military and industrial capacity of what remains of the world powers when it's clear that the surface will be uninhabitable -- it'll have a significant footprint on the surface as well, it's not like they will be in a nuclear proof vault.
Probably Geothermal for power and hydro/aeropnics, maybe vertical farms, and other indoor farming techniques for food not to mention stockpiling a large amount of food before hand.
Given the location of their island, and the fact that its highest altitude is 122m, chances are the wet bulb heat will get them long before the ocean does.
In the past, huge mass extinction events from warming climates occurred once the earth hit +9⁰C above average. And that change happened over millions of years. Hitting that in 1,000 would be unprecedented. We're entering uncharted waters here and it ain't looking pretty...
Yeah the thought that a completely healthy biosphere would collapse if we did what we are currently doing at a rate HUNDREDS OF TIMES SLOWER, eventually, makes it all the more clear what a terrible thing we just did.
Read "Overshoot" by William Catton and realize that "correction" involves dissolving global trade networks, reducing the population down to a size that doesn't require unsustainable agricultural practices (i.e. massive amounts of fossil fuel derived fertilizers, pesticides, & herbicides) before the precious, accessible fossil fuel reserves are exhausted. And to do that before the era of climate chaos which Catton didn't know about when he wrote the book in 1980.
A surprising amount of billionaires either can't currently do that, or are legitimately stupid.
Btw, a psychopathic god complex is a label for just a particular kind of stupidity.
North Sentinel will not be spared from climate change. It's surrounded by coral reefs, for one thing, and when those die off, the inhabitants will have less food. They have pigs, and a lot of birds are on the island, so I hope the ecosystem doesn't collapse from climate change + overexploitation of the remaining ecosystemby desperate Sentinelese.
>However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries.
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/
>Put simply, the IRA puts the U.S. on a path where meeting its global climate change commitments is within reach—commitments which would provide a genuine chance at securing a livable planet for future generations if they are kept. At the beginning of August 2022, there was no such path to secure this livable future, but there is now—and that is a mammoth victory.
https://www.epi.org/blog/the-inflation-reduction-act-finally-gave-the-u-s-a-real-climate-change-policy/
Watered down bill and propped up by libs and corpos trying to greenwash their government handouts to corporations. Not good enough by any means. It was a good bill based on the paths set a decade ago, with the new faster than expected research coming out on biosphere collapse, i dont buy that it is nearly enough. It is an insukt to those who understand exponential growth and tripping points. The planet doesn't care about what corpos and politicans consider a good start. And please update your standards on the current speed and pace of climate change yours are horribly out dated.
Aaaand it only adress one symptom of overshoot. It doesnt adress, all the others...deforestation, desertification, ocean dead zones, overfishing, plastic pollution and classic pollution to name a few.
It's a huge deal
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bidens-green-energy-law-is-turning-out-to-be-huge-201035230.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9vdXQucmVkZGl0LmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEzooL1Rhi53LkjqcTuItzqaPz3TVfvUpouV5EuiqzBp70-qkq5IQgjFSPhrGeVFe8OkyG2vwjJeKRx-dcLtv4qEmYKTuYOEUOoArshpc1Me0DeekG7pwkyNDSIrqZfrObGtG3tmg7iEifh6gV3duyHolvNbSfrD8t5PWIj8_hCI
>Goldman Sachs expects higher-than-expected private investment in all green energy categories affected by the IRA, but sees the biggest gains in two areas: electric vehicle production and advanced manufacturing.
I understand that some people think differently but there are way more moving parts than you're implying. If you try and look at the bigger picture (as scary as it can be) you'd see that there's no way this ends well. I hope I'm wrong but current events have confirmed my suspicions.
We know that’s a lie. First of all, there’s the global dimming effect which will add about another degree almost immediately. Then, just look at historical temperature and carbon dioxide records. There is almost a linear correlation, and the last time CO2 was this high there was no ice in the arctic. So we know we will lose the icecaps, which will take a few decades/ centuries, and their stored ice will help keep the climate cooler until their gone. But it will steadily warm until they really are gone. That’s not “leveling out.” Then there’s the trapped methane and CO2 in the permafrost that will be slowly added over more centuries, as well as all the carbon in our current forests that have proved this year that they will die.
According to the carbon records, temperatures were 3-6c hotter at equivalent GHG concentrations. That won’t take a few years.
I don't see any large animal survive that to be honest.
If I had to bet, I'd say it might give the chance to lizards or another rodent to evolve after they survive the hell we created
It'll probably be like the dinos--none of what we would call dinosaurs survived, but birds are their descendents and they made it through the extinction event to the next epoc.
Honestly that’s an absurd notion. There will be pockets of livable land somewhere on this earth, even with 3C of warming. Think of all the hostile environments people have lived in for thousands of years.
Now, whether there will be thousands or millions or billions of humans is definitely up for debate, as is there standard of living. But the climate crisis will not be the thing that ends all of humanity.
Please don’t take this to be me downplaying the climate crisis. Obviously a few hundred thousand people living like cavemen would be a complete unparalleled disaster.
I think if this does happen, it wont be any 1st world people. The reason is because everyone "lost" and forgot about the skills and methods of living that pre-technology people had.
Ive been getting into homesteading / farming and related stuff, and there are so many little tricks and things to know about making food from scratch.
Farming relies on consistent climate year-year. When you have random periods of drought and deluge crop yields suffer. The homesteaders are not going to survive either. The survivors will be the people willing to return to full nomadic lifestyle. Following the food and water wherever it goes. A homesteader who's well dries up or has 2 years of bad yields will be dead before they figure out they need to actually move. They won't want to give it up.
Homesteaders have an advantage of being small. I’ve done quite a bit of thinking about this and it’s more doable for a small scale farmer to adapt to heat, drought, flooding, and frost. It’s not easy and losses are to be expected. Thing is it’s not that hard to keep an acre of veggies and fruit and nut trees irrigated if you have a pond. The properties I’m looking at all have decent size pons to start with and it wouldn’t be that hard to dig another with a backhoe. Veggies can be shaded with translucent material and extra water helps with heat. Burlap helps solve for frost, raised beds help some for light flooding. Ain’t easy but there’s ways to reduce loses.
This is exactly what I mean. Homesteaders will hem and haw about how they can make it work because they're attached to the land. If you have a drought and a sizeable garden that pond won't last long at all. Try it out sometime. Just cows dipping and the evaporation on the surface puts the hurt on it after a week or two of no rain and that usage is nothing close to irrigation. You could maybe do a 1/4 acre vegetable garden. An acre nears the realm of impossibility especially without mules or horses which most people don't know how to use or train. You're making a huge gamble that the location you choose will remain tenable. With weather patterns so unpredictable you just can't know that. Hell during the 1930s dustbowl if people couldn't survive on their homesteads then I sure as hell know nobody would be able to now. You'll be on the roadside trying to hawk your piano keys.
Never said I planned on bothering with cows, goats are easier. It’s not that hard to dig 50,000 gallon pond and some of the properties I’m looking at have much larger ponds. You’re also forgetting about dug wells and drilled wells, you could potentially go down several hundred feet. The dust bowl didn’t hit New England, I’m going out of my way to set up in the safest place I can. No it won’t be perfect. And yes, it might fail, but it’s a lot better than staying in a city. Even with reduced snowfall snow and ice alone would be more than enough.
Better to make an attempt then do nothing at all. Besides, I enjoy this kind of living, I like not being surrounded by tons of people, and being in nature. I actually enjoy growing food, tending trees. So if it all falls apart anyways, at least I had a good time.
Agree. In fact it is what ended many, many previous civilizations. The way I see it in a thousand years, the most livable way for humans to survive will be partially or totally underground. And I'm sure some will.
If we can master geothermal power generation I don't see why a small population wouldn't be able to survive by going subterranean. Would be very dependent on aquaculture and seed storing. You wouldn't be able to support even thousands though so the outlook is still bleak.
Most of that will be useless. I promise you wont be able to grow food any better than the farmers..tough growing food in a changing climate no matter how much tech and skills you have. And i also promise the first few waves of hungry masses after shtf will hunt most animals to extinction. Already happening in much of the third world and without governments and aid organizations to help, these wildlife refuges will quickly become hollowed out empty stands of dying trees.
Most people here simply cant comprehend how bad we fucked the ecosystems.. the misunderstanding leads to a lot of hopium in prepper types. None of the examoles of the past apply because literally every ecosystem on Earth has been degraded by humanity and climate change is about to decapitate the rest standing. The rest of humanity left will feast on the remains of ecosystems till they starve.
Pure prepper hopium fantasy. Any survivors will not have any of the benefits humans had in the past. Humans outgrow their ecosystems, but there will be no predators to check us...part of our problem now and it will remain part of our problem. That's one big potential issue, but food will be the real issue. There will be no where to go when said rare ecoosystem that isnt a hell hole gets hit by an inevitable natural disaster, plus humans in the past didnt have to contend with dead oceans, dead lakes, plastic pollution on every surface, and little to no whlildlife to surive on when crops were not doing to well. To mamy wanna be preppers and engineer types and not enough systems bioligists. The preppers are hilarious. You will try to suruve....and you will fail. Stop it with the hopium. Just come to terms with the end.
Preppers will likely be the ones that end up wiping out the last remaining wildlife...right down to the last mouse....for food. Soundsike a nightmare scenario. Just let the Earth recover for crying out loud. Man, preppers are full of themselves. Just keep perpetuating this archaic human manifest destiny...this humam obsession to controll and dominate everything.
Preppers will eventually die from infections from cuts and simple infections the way all peeps have throughout history previous to penicillin. Modern sanitation has removed a lot of the pathogens that used to plague humans.
An infected tooth will be enough to finish off a prepper.
Prepping only works for short term survival.
Or just go to [JaseMedical](https://jasemedical.com/) and buy actual proper meds for humans that they will give you a prescription for even if you are just getting them to have on hand in case of emergency
Notably not impossible. Steam engines even now only are around 60% of their theoretical efficiency cap, and despite a lack of plastics which would likely be beneficial for sustainability if people had to rebuild from scratch somehow, there do exist alternative fuels with which one can power an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), even if many of them are corrosive to the internal components. Additionally, the ICE and steam engines overlapped in their periods of use by over 50 years during which the steam engine's output was able to keep up enough to remain viable.
Furthermore, due to our own contamination of one another's cultures through the spread of advancements from one society to another it remains unclear if alternative technological paths may be present even earlier on the timeline.
Regardless, if we did need to live in a world without oil, we would more likely than not see aesthetics not entirely unlike steampunk due to a lack of plastic and rubber leading towards continued use of predominantly wood, glass, and brass/copper as our most readily available and cheapest lightweight materials. Ironically fitting for a world that would presumably be stuck with the steam engine.
Nah. The money is here, not out there. And humans are fuckin shit at thinking long term.
Best case scenario is a "new planet" in the form very, very fucking large underground places to live beneath the surface. Completely closed ecosystem. Tons of money put into it to have water, food, power, sewage system of some kind, other shit. Of course, for such a place to work, there'd need to be a ton of workers at the bottom of the hierarchy. Among the elite, nepotism rules.
It wont last long before a revolution destroys the place. At the end of the day, all prepper fantasies forget one thing...humans fuck everything up...including ourselves.
Spacetwitter, or whatever they're calling themselves, pretend life on Mars is a real thing but I doubt this being viable. Muskgang VonElon is welcome to shoot his kinder into space, and good luck to them. Money would've been better spent on our planet.
FTL travel is a fantasy. It would take a generational ship hundreds of years to reach the next pote risky habitable planet.
Terraforming mars is also pure fantasy.
No because we currently can’t leave the solar system and no planet besides earth is liveable. We also can’t terraform planets - otherwise we could fix climate change here.
We won’t be able to develop spaceships that leave the solar system if the environment continues on the same trajectory because such things need organization and research and raw materials not just smart people. And those other things will be basically impossible once we start to collapse.
We’ve evolved to live on one planet and, imo, never ever had a real chance of finding a second earth.
Plus, I don’t think humanity’s technology peak is that far away.
20 years ago, I said humans would be extinct in 100 years
10 years ago, I said humans would be extinct in 50 years
Now, I don't think we'll make it another 20 years.
I'm talking about 99.9% extinction. I imagine there will be some nomadic bands of people who will survive for a time until resource depletion, disease, toxicity, etc. finally catches up to them.
Keep in mind, we're not just talking about the climate. I've been asking for years just WHO is going to baby sit all these 500+ commercial nuclear reactors, along with all their spent fuel pools, that need constant monitoring and cooling. And we're not even talking about a myriad of chemical plants and refineries that produce a ridiculous amount of highly toxic chemicals. Also, too, I have no idea of what other operations/industries I might be omitting.
Seriously, who's gonna shut this shit down—if any of it can be "shut down" at all?
No, we have so "successfully" fouled our nest that there is, quite literally, no hope. It's not just global broiling but a highly toxic ecosystem too.
If we can't even have discussions about it now, nor seriously address any mitigative efforts, how will we do anything in 5-10 years when the political will to address any of it will still be lacking? *En plus*, things will just be so much worse, potentially orders of magnitude worse.
Nevermind. It's just me. I'm supposedly "dark" and "negative". Let's all have babies !!
>However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries.
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/
Lies. The warmer oceans will release dissolved CO2, causing more warming which will warm the oceans more, in a positive feedback loop. I believe it follows from Henry's law.
That is the scientific consensus, until dishonest moderates like Michael Mann started pretending otherwise a few years ago because any honest assessment tells them it's way too late to stop climate change.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry's_law
*In physical chemistry, Henry's law is a gas law that states that the amount of dissolved gas in a liquid is directly proportional to its partial pressure above the liquid. The proportionality factor is called Henry's law constant*
(Why the oceans have been absorbing about a quarter of our CO2 emissions. And why if we go into negative emissions, the oceans will emit CO2
Yet, *Solubility of permanent gases usually decreases with increasing temperature at around room temperature*
(AKA why warming oceans will emit CO2 and amplify warming. More specifically, warm waters will emit more CO2 than they do now, cooler waters will be less cool and less efficient at taking up CO2)
It's the reason why "CO2 lags temperature" in glacial interglacial transitions. The oceans warmed from orbital cycles and released a portion of their dissolved CO2, amplifying the warming.
https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
NASA knows better than to believe what hopium they put on the page you linked. They can't admit we are doomed or they'll lose their jobs and their life's work will be for nought.
Mainstream climate science pushes a 2°C limit invented by an economist, and pretends the 1.5°C threshold invented during negotiations at the Paris Agreement is scientific and not arbitrary. That's how I know not to trust moderates and hopium-dealers.
https://thebiggestlieevertold.wordpress.com/2010/12/10/part-1-expose-the-2%C2%BA-death-dance-%E2%80%93-the-1%C2%BA-cover-up/
When the world reached 1 C of warming in the late 2010s, the weather started getting weird so that was the safe limit (due to global dimming we were long past that point so it was already too late to stop or adapt/migitate climate change).
10-20 years ago, the moderates were primarily warning about late century sea level rise. They downplayed climate change and promoted a 2 C limit invented by an economist who is virtually a climate change denier.
When you factor in global dimming, we are already over 2 C. When you factor in feedback loops that are already kicking in (like methane emissions from tropical wetlands, which has been ongoing for 16 years, an unknown amount of warming beyond that is already locked in. When you factor in emissions still increasing, you can tell that anthropogenic emissions will make the issue worse. When you factor in that even 1 C was not safe, much less 1.5 or 2 C which we are going to blow past in the near future, we are almost certainly doomed barring a Deus ex machina.
You have your head in the sand since what I say is obvious to anyone who keeps up with the news on climate change. Tipping points are being reached. Anthropogenic emissions are still increasing. Warming past 1° was not safe, since are we experiencing the effects of that now. Global dimming blocks about a degree of warming. We are reaching 1.5 C even with the global dimming effect.
The moderates are lying to you, pretending a threshold adopted at the Paris Agreement is scientific. Before then, they only cared about Nordhaus' unscientific 2 C safe zone.
No scientist can get away with being completely frank and expect to get published, but it inescapably follows by looking at what's been happening the last few years in real time (positive feedback loops kicking intk gear and the ever increasing GHG emissions, and the natural disasters not predicted by the moderstes to happen so soon, and the study about the sixth mass extinction being worse than previously thought, and the ANOC collapse study, and the topsoil getting depleted in 60 years according to the UN itself.
So you're making it up with no evidence lol. None of this means society will collapse. Just that animals are dying and we'll need an alternative source of soil or food in the far future
Near future, as in next few years.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/12/global-heating-likely-to-hit-world-food-supply-faster-than-expected-says-united-nations-desertification-expert
Thanks, ecological overshoot!
Nah the only thing that will take us completely out at this point is nuclear war or a freak astroid or pandemic.
Climate change will hurt 97% of us. But it won’t wipe out humans imo
Even a pandemic probably wouldn't take everyone out. The idea of a pandemic having a 100% death rate is unheard of. Theres always people that sirvive and have some form of immunity not to mention remote tribes and even remote people that dont have any contact with the outside world. Asteroid... if it was big enough, maybe. Nuclear war likely would do it though.
Hence why nobody wants to do anything, if cooling is not going to stop for a thousand years what's the actual point of affecting anything in your life right now? Humans are short-sighted short-term being we think about the now that's it. Very rarely is there a human that thinks beyond their life span.
Summers in the 90s when I was a kid were WAY hotter than they've been in recent years. 100+ degrees in the upper midwest was normal for a few years in the mid-90s. People are making mountains out of molehills here.
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My brothers 9ft deep swimming pool in Houston hits in the lower 90s during the day. By 8pm, it’s still around 90 degrees.
The outside temp has been hitting over 100 for 3 months and doesn’t cool off much at night.
I’m in Louisiana and watching drought make all the grass turn brown around me, which I have never seen in my life. We’re currently a month+ deep into a no burn advisory for the whole state, something else i can’t recall experiencing. And to top it all off, there is still zero rain on the forecast
Luckily, there is plenty of air conditioning, since the bodies of water around me are also uncomfortably warm.
We’re edging towards fatal wet bulb temps here and next year is forecasted to be worse.
Without air conditioning, I honestly don’t know how people would survive much more than what we’ve experienced this summer, especially with the warming predicted throughout the next century.
But yeah, I’m pretty sure you debunked the whole climate emergency with your anecdotes.
Some places will cool down a bit...and thus get hit with storms, and severe flooding. Others will be worse. That's how El Nino and La Nina work. Even in La Nina the PNW still got hit by a massive heat dome. At this point, there is no safe year. All bets are off.
Just two years is gonna make this summer seem like the greatest summer ever. Mostly, because this summer is the best summer we are going to have for the rest of our shortened lives.
Once El Niño is over (probably after next year), the temperature will go down during La Niña just a little bit, and the disasters will be less than this year, and many people will say, “see, it’s not so bad.”
Then the next El Niño will hit another year or two later, even worse than this year. And this cycle will continue until La Niña years are worse than this year’s El Niño, and those future El Niño years are are unimaginable compared to our historic climate.
This is what I think the next 15 years will look like. I just hope enough people and countries can be convinced to take drastic action sooner rather than later!
Have you noticed that places aren’t being rebuilt like we used to be able to do after a disaster? Now we will be getting one disaster on top of another with no time to recover and we will be slowly pecked to death. As a society. Unfortunately.
Hell, Farmer's Insurance pulled out of Florida. Farmer's, AIG, All State, and State Farm all pulled out of California too. Specifically that they will not do any new policies.
here in sub-urban chicago, the summer weather has been mostly fantastic...were supposed to have some especially hot weather this week, but it's only supposed to be *really* bad for two days.
Here in Minneapolis, this summer has been quite pleasant, if not a bit warm and hazy. Very few rainy days to spoil a barbeque. There's been a nice calm wind that makes sitting outside on a patio during a warm summer evening a joy. Just about every day.
This is...not normal. Where are the storms man? What happened to that wind I'd have to fight while I was fishing? What happened to that week in August when you say to yourself, "Yep, I can feel fall right around the corner!"
We aren't supposed to be having this weather. And what the hell happened to blue skies? Do those exist anymore? Everything has that movie-Mexico tinge of yellow to it.
This is what I miss - clear/crisp fall weather. Some delineation between the seasons. Air quality has been horrendous due to all the fires there's a perpetual haze it seems. Plus, it's weirdly quiet outside on those oppressively hot days..it's purgatory.
Hope the grid holds. My house was built 90 degrees off proper axis, my basement isn’t deep enough because 70 years ago my foundation was poured on top of a small creek and my Miyawaki isn’t old enough yet to give me southwest deciduous shading….but I’m working on it and we ate 3 strawberries so far so we got that going for us which is nice.
House should be on east west axis long in northern hemisphere so you can absorb sun energy in winter and have less heating costs. Greenhouse to the south in summer to absorb sun. The west sun roasts our shit in this orientation and we get like no indoor grow windows and no winter warming it’s part of permaculture design and architecture should be forced to build more intelligently but we get cookie cutter gas box houses instead built quickly with no design thought
> here in sub-urban chicago, the summer weather has been mostly fantastic...
Seattle too. Ten years ago, weather like this was cause to call in sick and go camping and hiking. This summer it's felt like an eerie calm before the storm. And now the smoke and fire is here.
> an eerie calm before the storm
That's some my favorite weather. Perhaps it's because of the drop in air pressure making the weight of the world a bit lighter.
Oh it gets worse they now see North America is on track to warm faster than the globe. We will hit 2c 10 years before the rest of the globe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHGt9l6U5fM
This is beyond *related to* collapse, it's a detailed retrospective of cracks appearing in the wall, a list of the calamities and disasters that have rained down on us this summer - which isn't over yet.
> The incidents are part of a broader pattern of extreme weather and disasters that have unfolded across North America this summer, as climate change supercharges storms, rainfall, heat and drought, and produces weather patterns with the potential to cause devastation.
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I'm trying to save up money to spend the rest of my days, together with my small family, in peace somewhere. I'm tired of living frugally and planting trees and trying desperately for people to join for the betterment of all. I've never been more repulsed by an average person than this summer, in which I've been sick due to heat nearly perpetually.
I would spend it while you got it...or convert that money into food storage to use as currency once the inevitable stock market crash happens and the dollar loses all value. You aint got time for any major savings to happen. Inflation will rob you if you dont spend it now. And you best be aware that all these disasters are gonna spike inflation.
Where I am in the Northeast it's been quite mild. Only had to run the AC 5x during the day and have had to spend evenings wearing hoodies twice that number. It's been really pleasant other than the 3-4 days of heavy smoke due to the Canadian fires.
Also downtown businesses are taking a big hit without having those office workers around. There are people actually lobbying government to force people back into offices just because *their* business depends on it. Nevermind the improved efficiency, quality of life, reduced pollution, etc.
And all that money goes *somewhere*. Like why is our responsibility to keep downtown businesses going? If I get a sandwich somewhere else then my money is still circulating.
I mean, children used to have nuclear bomb drills where they'd hid under their desks in the event of a total nuclear exchange with the USSR. Doomerish has always been realism somewhat. If anything, the breakdown of our environment is a slow boil instead of a quick fry, so at least we have time to try to start repairing the damage.
My question with that perspective is people would see the smoke and flames, and feel the heat increasing... people wouldn't really run mindlessly into a conflagaration, would they?
I know this isn't the sub for empathy towards those in power, but I really feel sorry for whoever had to make that decision. Turn the alarms on? People might go on the established routes toward the fire, away from the sea, but it would have alerted everyone to the danger. Keep them off? People will still be asleep, unsure of the danger, and later trapped in their cars and homes... but maybe we can buy more time for the text alerts?
Then there wasn't more time, the cell towers went down as the texts were going out, the exit routes were clogged with confused, panicked cars, and the pyrocane came down on all the innocent people. I can't even imagine being the person forced to make that choice.
We’ll just keep burning fossil fuel until the 1% hurts more from continuing like this than making a change.
I honestly don’t think there will ever be such a point, or there is one, if that won’t be waaaaay way way too late - it looks like it’s way too late already.
The masses will force a change, the 1% don’t realize the are cannibalizing the whole system, as soon as we hit the Great Depression 2.0, and the masses reacted with fear and anger it’s all over. Either a fascist government takes total control or we hit mad max levels.
Things may change when crops become increasingly difficult to grow and entire biospheres, food chains, and global supply chains collapse. Basically, when the wealthy realize that they can't eat their wealth.
So the government is aware, but because there’s an election next year they don’t really want to talk about it. Brilliant.
So looking to the future, climate change will be discussed properly for maximum 2-3 years of each Democratic Party term, and 0 years of each Republican term. Assuming they pass the presidency back and forth every 8 years, that mean 4-6 years of meaningful discussion out of every 16 years.
We’re so fucked.
Can they? When people needed to wear masks suddenly that became a huge problem for some reason. Seems people actually get what they want when they give enough of a shit, they just don't give a shit about the right things.
Look, the propaganda has been around for a while. And also information sources were around for a while. America isn't exactly the only country to have those things. But anti-intellectualism remains rampant. Such a thing relies on people wanting it to work.
You don't think US people are propagandized? I certainly do.
They (we) live in a sea of bad information. The ones that seek out good info & know it when they see it are not a majority, not by a long shot.
And this is not unique to the US
They neutered voters. They fucked up the education system. Half of our population can barely manage reading over the 6th grade level. They filled our history lessons with propaganda and misinformation. They taught us sanitized versions of protest work.
They turned a huge part of the population into misinformed morons who support the system that is hurting them.
We are working against monsters with infinite resources and power who have rigged our own team against us. It’s terrifying.
We gonna get to see a Blue Ocean Event....then a few years later, we getting a Stinky Ocean Event as all the phytoplankton and fish die off and decay from anoxic ocean water.
BOE, then SOE.
How many zillion-dollar super-popular apocalypse films do they churn out and love so deeply?
And in every single one, they head off in a truck
because there's still plenty of gas
FFS
Ugh, same here. Absolutely terrified for this summer. Organizing my list of stuff to take if I have to leave. I'd recommend you do the same, some plan is better than no plan.
Always have one, live far too close to the bush not to. Just hoping that the fire service will be better prepared than they were in 2019, otherwise we’re in for a rough few months.
I’m rewatching The West Wing and one of the only things that feels truly dated is the institutional and human response to the crises that occur. A tornado touches down, or there’s a shooting, and everyone stands in abject horror as they kick into next gear to deal with the fallout.
I was ashamed to realize that I thought their responses were a bit dramatic for the scale of the tragedies, and I realized it’s because we are so many floods, fires, tornadoes, and shootings in the last 20 years that it’s no longer something we all stop and watch in horror with the same disbelief.
This is fucking insane. I can’t imagine what even 5 years from now will be like. Wow. The steep increase just since like 2016 is enough to give me chills
The following submission statement was provided by /u/WashingtonPass:
---
This is beyond *related to* collapse, it's a detailed retrospective of cracks appearing in the wall, a list of the calamities and disasters that have rained down on us this summer - which isn't over yet.
> The incidents are part of a broader pattern of extreme weather and disasters that have unfolded across North America this summer, as climate change supercharges storms, rainfall, heat and drought, and produces weather patterns with the potential to cause devastation.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/15wvhex/one_climate_disaster_after_another_north_americas/jx32uz6/
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