Let's be honest, is it really predictable that memory prices will only stabilize in mid-2028?
Posted by Louvatar@reddit | buildapc | View on Reddit | 91 comments
SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are going to sell RAM to whoever pays the most. They are not planning to increase production, which means there won’t be excess memory available for regular consumers. This is a fundamental strategy, and they won’t repeat the same mistake Nvidia made when it ramped up production of the RTX 30 series during the mining boom.
My main question is whether it actually makes sense to invest in RAM right now. I bought a 2×8 GB DDR4 kit, and I believe that, for running the operating system and even playing some AAA titles, this amount is already sufficient. So, would it be fair to say that investing in more memory at this point is simply foolish, given that prices are inflated and 16 GB still meets most needs?
On the other hand, if RAM prices really continue to rise until 2028, maybe it would be smarter to spend the money on memory kits as early as possible? But will this situation actually resolve itself by 2028? Will supply normalize, or is this the new long-term reality? So many questions…
brunovt1992@reddit
Nobody can predict the future. My guess is that prices will remain outragous until the ai bubble pops. Thats why out of pure frustration I build this memory price comparison tool https://ram-mageddon.com/
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Anybody saying 16GB is enough for AAA games in 2026 is coping, especially on Windows 11. 16GB stopped being enough a couple of years ago.
Ok-Permission9444@reddit
i play 1440p max and only go 200mb over my 8gb limit, you're the one making a big deal out of nothing. Not everyone is playing 4k and a VAST majority of gamers are still on 1080p which uses even less.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Hey, let me ask you something.
Do you know how to read?
IlIGHOST-0006@reddit
I read your comment and it seemed to represent an issue that doesn’t exist in my experience under the circumstances you spoke about, and given the extreme over representation and confidence in that, that you put, I felt you are likely speaking from a position in which you do not have firsthand experience to back your claim. You likely said what you said because big tech reviewers said that. I did read, do know how to read, and what I wrote stands.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
No need to say you don't know how to read with so many words. This isn't a high school essay with a minimum word count.
You CAN get away with 16GB in SOME games, but that's all based on games are already out which is selection bias.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvkqooR2FkE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj5v52R4qnk
Both of those videos showing substantial performance loss, poor 1% low performance, or muddy visuals in a lot of games with 16GBs when compared to 32GBs, especially when using GPUs with lower amounts of VRAM.
Again for games ALREADY RELEASED that were supporting the previous generation of consoles in most cases. Games to be released in the future are less and less likely to support the previous gen consoles which means the minimum specs will be raised to accommodate current gen and next gen games that are actively being developed right now.
This is just the beginning of 2026 and the next gen consoles are rumored to be released next year. 16GBs may work depending on the game, but it won't last for much longer.
rumpeltizkin@reddit
Yeah, maybe a few games will use more than 16GB but think that those AAA developers assume you will be playing 2160p and have a decent GPU. If you play 1080p your requirements go down substantially, and you could be playing 95% of PS6 games without major issues, as long as the GPU is compatible.
The smart move in videogames on PC is to play everything 1080p while industry is revolving for 2160p. That way you will save a lot of money throughout all your life and nobody will be able to stop you, because games will never force the user to play 2160p or nothing. Even so, people would release patches to force 1080p, and that will last as long as we are alive.
Moreover, the quantity of indie games that are being released is every time more and more. Most of those games can run in computers from 10 years ago with discrete GPU's, so industry is kind of polarized, and that's very nice because if people can save on hardware they can invest on videogames :)
G0ngerX@reddit
Too much text, did not read
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Must be tough being unable to read a few paragraphs.
Maybe you should go back to elementary.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
I will continue using W10, but certainly with several optimizations.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
While Windows 10 is better still, it's not the most ideal in terms of RAM usage.
As much as I love Linux, I know it's not for everyone, but it has up to 30% less RAM usage from what I've seen. Windows is just too bloated to make 16GB as viable as it used to be.
deckartcain@reddit
Up to 30% less RAM usage? I mean, in my experience its much more than that. I have 16gb on my laptop and it used to idle at around 7-8gb on Windows 11. On Fedora it uses around 2gb. So like a 70-75% drop in idle use.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
I agree. But I don't intend to switch to Linux anytime soon, there's too much incompatibility with mods.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Running mods on 16GB is asking for trouble if it's on any game remotely new.
Fun_boy24@reddit
you using win 10 ?
do u think win 10 can last 1 year more on it ?
and by the support ends of win 10 means that only the update and defender stopped updating right ?
i am planning my self to switch to thr as win 11 eating 5gb of ram on just idle and slwing down my 8gb ram laptop ( i really cant afford a ram rn bcs of the 4x price on it )
pesa44@reddit
ltsc
BlackQuest575@reddit
What are you on about? 16GB is fine for any game currently out.
yes 32GB is very nice to have, but it doesn't really impact performance in the same way that GPU or CPU does.
so unless you're running Chrome with 500 tabs open and a virtual machine, 16GB is fine.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Thanks for admitting you did not reading the rest of my responses.
BlackQuest575@reddit
I have run Cyberpunk 2077 with 16GB of ram on high settings and gotten a stable 60FPS
When I switched to 32 GB and 64 GB of ram I didn't notice much improvement other than I can run a lot more chrome tabs at the same time without issues.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Cyberpunk is a six year old game. It's not relevant.
BlackQuest575@reddit
How is a game being just 6 years old make it irrelevant? People play loads of games older than 6 years all the time? What are you on about?
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Because it was designed to work on older, three generation old hardware at this point for PCs and the previous generation of consoles which were also less powerful.
SmokingLimone@reddit
Cyberpunk had a bit of bad luck releasing at the moment where the new consoles had come out but nobody could buy them, and the performance on old gen was abysmal. It's still a pretty intensive game though while looking better than almost anything else since
immortalpiyush@reddit
You're wrong.
https://youtu.be/Bj5v52R4qnk?si=GNcLBx72Tp25ISQ0
Its quite the opposite, 16gb is enough for gaming but not enough for editing or rendering tasks.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
Did you people even watch the video you're linking me to?
Steve says in the conclusion that this only applies to people who have more than 8 GB of VRAM which is still the minority of players (\~44.5%) according to Steam's February Hardware Survey results.
According to that same hardware survey, \~55.47% players have 32GB of VRAM, which means more people have more RAM than VRAM. So you're the one who is wrong.
https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/Steam-Hardware-Software-Survey-Welcome-to-Steam
Even with all of that information, Steve LITERALLY SAYS NOT TO BUY A 16GB MEMORY KIT AT THE END OF THE VIDEO AT 12:02 and at 12:25, he, AGAIN, literally says "The real answer would be that you want 32 gigabytes."
https://youtu.be/Bj5v52R4qnk?si=RBDk4z6_1HbjqAEG&t=720
Being able to have playable performance doesn't mean it's good, especially when the guys who are being honest benchmarkers trying to help people save money on hardware when prices are insanely high are saying that.
Actually pay attention to what you're watching and maybe you won't make a fool of yourself next time.
BambooGentleman@reddit
I'm on Linux and 32GB stopped being enough for me years ago. Though, that's not due to games.... I'm already idling at like 16GB RAM usage and I don't want to close software to use other software.
Alternative-Pen1028@reddit
With steamOS release widely this might be negated. Windows is really a piece of crap system.
Competitive_Seat782@reddit
The amount of unnecessary bloatware that the windows operating system has is really astonishing, i'm looking forward to ditch windows as soon is possible
Alternative-Pen1028@reddit
Me too but unfortunately until anticheat issues will be solved, we are tied to windows 🫠
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
To my knowledge, Valve has not actually said they are making SteamOS 3.0 available for every system to use so I can't say it's a good idea to bet on that.
If you want a SteamOS-like experience, there are current alternatives that are just as good, if not better.
Leorio_616@reddit
would you be so kind to tell us what are these alternatives?
Braydon64@reddit
Literally any Linux desktop. Ubuntu, for example.
BicBoiSpyder@reddit
CachyOS's handheld version Bazzite Nobara's Steam-HTPC version.
All of which are mainstream distros with helpful communities and good documentation.
sphafer@reddit
forget about steamOS, it'll just be an arch based linux distro anyway. All of valves' work to make linux gaming better is available on linux in general. If you want to switch away from windows you can do it at any time. Good luck.
kcksteve@reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/Games/s/3leFxfG1dB This isn't entirely true, while I would recommend 32gb, you would be fine with 16gb if you have enough vram.
Prestigious-Guava291@reddit
What kind of shit are you playing to need more than 16? Anyone who thinks more than 16 is needed and absolutely neccessary is coping. Im playing on 16 just fine. Cry about it.
ComprehensiveDog9891@reddit
My computer is using 29 Gb of ram so it is needed
True-Service6450@reddit
DCS uses over 50gb on most maps.
haru_reiuji05@reddit
I think it's enough for me but there's sure no extra breathing room for it. My laptop is at 16 but on the other hand 32 is so expensive I can't even dream of affording it now. I'd use linux but the problem is I think some features like windows hello don't work on linux properly, I think there's facial recognition there but it doesn't use the ir sensor. Well, going off topic. Hope prices drop sometime
RADIORAFFA@reddit
If everyone stops buying.. They will lower prices. But most people can not control themselves.
Standard-Pen4307@reddit
Actually no, the prices are skyrocketing because they produce only memory for datacenters.
RADIORAFFA@reddit
Yes.. It is all about AI, which will be the fall of society ... But if people just stopped buying.. Demand drops and supply rises .. They would lower prices.
Ender_Nether@reddit
No, they will go up and up and up...
It is partially due to AI centers, and partially because of artificial inflation, because they want us to go into cloud gaming, which is heavily promoted now... I expected this to happen 3 years ago.
Why? Profit and control.
StrawberryUnique7162@reddit
Memory will cost several thousand dollars for a few gigabytes. That's reality. It won't change. Not today, tomorrow or in 5 years. Expect memory to keep increasing in cost and never go down again. But it's not all terrible. It will kill bloated operating systems such as windows 11 and Mac os and end bloatware. I expect programming languages to shift as a result and Linux to surge. Bring back assembly language. Only load what is necessary. Stop bundling garbage.
cdgsyn1@reddit
Until China throws together a dozen memory production plants to serve the US consumer market. Where a vacuum there's always someone who will eventually fill it.
piotor87@reddit
A single memory production plant would cost in the Billions and won't be operative before 3/4 years even with Chinese speed. By then the market could already have burst and that point why would they sell to consumer and not to the same people who are willing to pay anything for a wafer.
LetsHugFoReal@reddit
16GB is not sufficient for these days. Games use as much as 24GB while loading. There will be an impact.
RealKenshino@reddit
You're looking for a reason to buy :P Just buy it if you want to
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
Yes, but I don't know if it's acceptable to spend more on something that might not make that much of a difference in overall usability, in this case, investing in another 2x8GB...
BambooGentleman@reddit
There's a pretty easy tell if you have enough RAM or not: does your computer crash (or even just come to a crawling halt) because it is out of RAM? If yes, buy more RAM. If no, you are still fine.
This is the metric I use for upgrading and it led me to currently have 48GB of RAM.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
I think 16gb ram is acceptable, 32gb is the ideal scenario and 48gb ram It's perfect. For those who work with heavy video editing, I believe it's an appropriate
BambooGentleman@reddit
Depends entirely on how you use your computer. With the way I use it, my computer would regularly freeze up on only 32GB of RAM. It hasn't done that anymore since I've upgraded to 48GB.
Meanwhile the media family PC only has 16GB of RAM and is fine.
Once your computer freezes due to RAM shortage it is time to upgrade.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
Sure dude, I got 32gb ram ddr4 3600mhz In this crisis, I think I'll be fine until this crisis is over
rockphysicsdude@reddit
Hey. I am in the same boat. I feel like 16GB is not enough nowadays, but given the RAM price it is a luxury I am not willing to pay right now.
You should be patient, all you are losing is a bit of performance not worth the price for the time being.
Sylvi-Fisthaug@reddit
If you often see that the RAM usage goes to 14-15 GB while playing, upgrade it.
I bought additional 2x8GB years ago when I wanted to run 120+ mods in Kerbal Space Program... worked like a charm!
move_to_lemmy@reddit
I love you bringing up KSP in 2026, do da man! Go rescue Jeb!
Dense_Ad7115@reddit
Personally, I'd go for 32gb. Irrespective of the underlying market it just pays to have enough to cover you in most reasonable scenarios, and it's not like having a bit too much will harm your performance. 16gb is fine, but why would you limit your system 🤷
BambooGentleman@reddit
This mindset was a lot easier to have and recommend when the difference wasn't $300.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
I agree!
rumpeltizkin@reddit
So this is a world plot to make everyone spend a lot of money on extra RAM? AI companies made talks with RAM producers to produce only for them, RAM companies talked with videogames companies to unnecessarily increase the RAM requirements on games.
You know what? I got 16GB a couple of years ago and if games are going to push me to get 32GB, then I am not gaming anymore. I prefer to stop enjoying my hobby altogether than giving extra money for a bubble I didn't create and I am not the one to blame. You know how we can stop this suddenly? not upgrading, not buying and not playing for an entire month. The amount of pressure that RAM makers would have would force them to increase the production before the army break in into their factories.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
It's no use, the big tech companies would be buying the memory instead of us...
rumpeltizkin@reddit
Sure, they would, but for how long? and those big tech companies would need to sell to earn money.
What could happen if consumers would stop buying anything related to AI all of sudden? for how long those companies would keep happy before they crash completely?
If humans had the level of education to work like ants to solve a world issue, companies would never dare to try anything fishy in any corner of the planet, but as I mentioned, we are not evolved enough for that to happen.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
Exactly, Nvidia's monopoly is a problem that AMD could significantly solve if it made better decisions.
datasleek@reddit
I agree, we can't see the future, but what I'm starting to see is people not willing to buy at that price. I bought a used Dell RS630 with 196 GB ram and 8x10k drives for $800. Now, it's $3000-$4000. These computers are gonna sit on shelves and so will brand new ones.
This is happening because there is no price control.
Apple is making its own chips now, and wireless chip. I won't be surprised if they make their own memory, then Samsung will bite their nails. Apple is investing Billions in manufacturing chips, nothing prevent them to manufacture later for others.
ComprehensiveDog9891@reddit
I hope it keeps rising
ComprehensiveDog9891@reddit
The best way to know is to wait and also look at recent trends.
prank_mark@reddit
Considering DDR4 is still quite cheap (way below the crypto hype peak) I'd get 32GB right now before the prices go really crazy. 16GB is really the bare minimum, and it's likely that RAM load will only increase, as 32GB is (or was) standard on modern DDR5 platforms.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
I'm sure that demand and prices will get higher over time :(
prank_mark@reddit
Yes. And right now, DDR4 is still relatively unaffected. But we might see a comeback of AM4 and that will drive up DDR4 prices as well. So I'd get 32GB now if you can.
redd-or45@reddit
I have been tracking Corsair 16GB (2X8GB) DDR4 2666MHz UDIMM just to upgrade an older DDR3 everyday computer. Price 7/2025 $34. Price 2/2026 $124. Ryzen 5 CPU prices have doubled. MB price had slightly decreased in that 8 months.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
Yes! thank you very much for your consideration! 🤜🤛
pesa44@reddit
32GB CL16 3600mhz DDR4 costs 300 dollars in EU. I upgraded from 3200 to 3600 8 months ago for 40 dollars. Later I sold my old kit of 3200 for double of that.
Monsta_Owl@reddit
I mean I got 16gb for my build back in 2016 and that was 10 years ago. If anything I was expecting ram to be at least 64gb or 128gb to be the norm by now. Cartel has been holding the price because there is no true competition. I hope CXMT crash the party really really hard.
Rich_Artist_8327@reddit
For US Cloud companies like Azure or AWS, is much cheaper to purchase all RAM wafers to prevent europe to build their own infra. So as long as there is no RAM available, europe cant get rid of US cloud. I think this will last long.
Teacult@reddit
It is not that simple. If people cannot buy ram they wont buy new systems and cpu and motherboard sales will take a hit. They never increase production capacity for cheaper prices , usually manufacturer prices are a very small tiny fraction of how much you pay for example a car made for 2000 usd at factory you buy it for 12000 in EU , same car 32000 usd in Turkey ... So more modules they produce more money manufacturer makes. The dealer between manufacturer and consumer are increasing prices according to demand and rarity, not factories.
There is also a stock market like Borsa for ram modules. As conclsuion if you are not using minimum 256 GB ram like people use in production, if you are a consumer and only think about ram prices to play games. It is really not your concern ...
jazhun@reddit
We are buying and selling server memory modules a lot recently (www.server-parts.eu). The market is crazy. We usually buy from private individuals and companies and our offering prices doubled if not trippled in the last 6 months. Let's see where the market goes.
Tall-Jicama-2099@reddit
well the ai companies have contracts with the manufacturers already so the only thing we know is it will atleast go on till 2027
jazhun@reddit
I did quite a lot of research and .... I think yes. More like late-2028, I think.
PlasticAngle@reddit
Nobody know man.
It can last till 2028 or longer or tomorrow openAI can go bankrupt and the entire buble die down along with ram price. basically everyone just guessing at this point
InsiderProgrammer@reddit
RAM isn't something you hedge against. Demand will shift quickly, and memory remains a cyclical business. Upgrading now provides no real value if 16GB is what works for you today. Buy RAM when you need it, not because you fear its price.
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
I'm walking a tightrope between saving more or spending more before things get worse ;(
Triedfindingname@reddit
16 is enough for gamers only I'd say. Ignore the nonsense and ejoy.
SpaceNex@reddit
Prices will keep going up as long as there are people buying it. That's how it works. Always has been, always will be.
EdoTheOnlyOne@reddit
16GB is enough
Louvatar@reddit (OP)
I'll need to do a lot of optimizations on Windows 10 :(
gpowerf@reddit
Nobody knows. Every single time there's been a shortage of chips it has stabilized eventually. But we don't know the future.
greggm2000@reddit
It’s too late to get cheap RAM, the time to do that was a few months ago. Buy now only if you absolutely need to. As to when prices will correct, we obviously don’t know, the thing I’m watching for is for the AI bubble to burst. When it does, some months after that, prices (and availability) should return to the historical norm.. likely to be higher than it was a year ago when it was historically very cheap, but it should still be sane, unlike now.
automatic_bazooti@reddit
If you’re not planning to do anything but game with your PC, don’t bother with the extra RAM.
Icy_Seesaw_2796@reddit
There could be tariffs or trade wars in 2 years, it's a long time.
-UserRemoved-@reddit
Our ability to see the future is the same as yours.
History tells us this industry is entirely unpredictable.
Everyone is just guessing, there is no useful information or advice on purchasing to be given when all we have are guesses.
According_Spare7788@reddit
Nobody really knows now. Even the last wave of memory prices hikes in 2017 or so, i remember that took like 2 years to really stabilize. And i thought paying $80 for a stick of DDR4 2400 was already bad back then....