Do you think Japan will get a 3rd full-service carrier to rival ANA and JAL?
Posted by bonzothebonanza@reddit | aviation | View on Reddit | 59 comments
There are certain countries that house a “Big 3” airline rivalry. These include the US (Delta, American, United), China (Air China, China Southern, China Eastern), and Taiwan (China Airlines, EVA Air, Starlux).
Historically, Taiwan and South Korea had a duopoly in their respective aviation landscape. However, that has since changed. In 2020, Taiwan’s Starlux started operations, marking the start of a “Big 3” rivalry in the country, while South Korea’s Asiana Airlines will soon merge under Korean Air, creating a huge monopoly.
Japan, however, is a rare example of still having a traditional full-service duopoly competition, which consists of All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL). Do you think Japan will introduce a 3rd full-service airline in the future?
Previous_Cellist_666@reddit
No. There is no market for a full scale third carrier, like TDA/JAS used to be. Japan is rather heading to be a LCC market in the foreseable future, providing fuel prices will return back to normal.
Funway1111@reddit
I know this is kinda an old topic but I think with how things go right now that both JAL and ANA subsidiaries are folding into the parent company, I can see a future JAL-ANA merger similar to Korean Air-Asiana merger especially with the prolonged supply strain of both aircrafts and pilots versus the demand. Mergers are bad for consumers as they make monopolies but good for companies because they can allocate these scarce resources more efficiently as opposed to competing on the same routes and schedules.
Manacit@reddit
No. Japan is a mature aviation market that’s not showing the crazy growth that would mean a new airline would be worth it.
I could see this happening in a more developing country but not Japan.
CMScientist@reddit
But tourism has been developing extremely quickly, so i would argue there is room
DemandSlight@reddit
Taiwan’s Starlux formed purely because of the issue of inheritance within the Evergreen Group’s Chang family. It wasn’t because there was really a market for the third airline.
CMScientist@reddit
What about air premia in korea against korean air and asiana
Used_Return9095@reddit
idk what but that sounds like some kdrama story line lol
n1ckkt@reddit
Very brief summary but:
Family owned EVA
Apparently the son who was into aviation was supposed to inherit EVA
Ultimately, he did not inherit EVA
Went on to start Starlux.
testthrowawayzz@reddit
He was the head of EVA Air before his father died. His father willed him the parent group but was ousted by the other sons out of the parent because they had more shares. Somehow they were able to oust him out of EVA Air too.
grackychan@reddit
Not only did he love aviation, he's an A350 pilot turned executive. He captained the inaugural TPE - LAX flight last year IIRC.
DemandSlight@reddit
He was a Boeing 777-300ER pilot turned executive, as he was already VP when he was still at EVA. He holds license for 777-300ER, A321neo and A350; and he only acquired the licenses for Airbus aircrafts after he was kick out from EVA.
grackychan@reddit
Incredible. Rare to be type rated on 777 and then A350 !
DemandSlight@reddit
He was somewhat forced onto A350 at the time. When he first started Starlux, EVA Air and EGAT basically was the only company at the time that was Boeing certified for every Boeing 777 maintenance work in Taiwan. Considered how he was forced out of the company it is unlikely for him to stick with 777 as he would have to rely on EVA's service for that aircraft type.
ulirg@reddit
Whenever Starlux gets a new A350 he goes to Toulouse to fly it back to Taiwan himself! The Evergreen inheritance fight was especially bitter because he is the son of the second wife and the youngest. He didn't get EVA Air, but he did get a big chunk of the inheritance in the will, which was why he could start his own airline from scratch and even survive the COVID downtime.
faster_tomcat@reddit
But now that it exists, there does seem to be the market? The times I've flown Starlux the flights were full and the experience was ... Pretty good! I don't love the 7kg weight limit for carryon bags but I understand why they do that.
DemandSlight@reddit
I am confident that the airline will survive and perform well. However, if the founder had not been ousted from EVA, he would still be the chairman and Starlux would not exist.
FenPhen@reddit
Taiwan's 3 carriers all have the same basic weight limit of 7 kg. In economy classes, passengers are allowed 1 carry-on up to 7 kg.
In business and first classes, passengers get 2 carry-ons. China Airlines and EVA Air limit both pieces to 7 kg each. Starlux limits the heavier piece to 10 kg, with a total limit of 14 kg for both.
Aztec_Mayan@reddit
And betting BIG on cargo too
loadofthewing@reddit
No, their population is shrinking, and both ANA and JAL are top tier airlines in the world. How can a third airline differentiate itself from them to attract the relatively loyal customers base?
CMScientist@reddit
Starlux did it in Taiwan against china airlines and EVA. Air premia did it against Korea Air and Asiana. Both have shrinking populations. Also, getting on skyteam would be a big boost as there are no japanese airlines there.
OriMoriNotSori@reddit
Only way is to go Boutique or Low Cost to differentiate but ANA and JAL already got that covered with Air Japan and ZIPAir respectively
blurple_nipple@reddit
ANA have actually folded Air Japan. Their long haul low cost experiment failed, apparently.
WitELeoparD@reddit
You mean like every other long haul low cost airline, lol.
UnexpectedFisting@reddit
I mean it hasn’t failed for Zipair
CMScientist@reddit
So far
Strange_Cartoonist14@reddit
What happened to Norwegian?
Wide-Garbage8960@reddit
It wasn’t even long haul to begin with.
OriMoriNotSori@reddit
Damn that was quick. Didn't they just start in 2024 lol
Conpen@reddit
Starlux kinda did that
motorailgun@reddit
This. And to addition to this, the most-profitable lines departing/arriving at HND(Tokyo Int'l), like those to/from FUK, OKA, and ITM, are already constrained by its capacity.
Volt_OwO@reddit
Speaking of shrinking population, ANA and JAL have both said they’re struggling with a labour shortage. It would impossible for a third full service carrier to enter the market right now.
Left-Associate3911@reddit
I agree with this ⬆️
derrotebaron777@reddit
No
ScaryDuck2@reddit
ANA already merged with low cost carrier skymark in 2015 or something. They’ve been going the opposite direction from the way you are suggesting lol. You note the US has a big three but those big 3 have been acquiring or attempting to acquire medium sized airlines for ages. Also the small/medium sized airlines that have been attempting to merge have been unsuccessful (most recently the failed merger between JetBlue and Spirit).
daltorak@reddit
There's no space at Haneda for another domestic airline.
Eastern-Command659@reddit
I worked at Skymark and they were trying to do that, but it was hard for them.
WinTemporary7493@reddit
Japan is also primarily premium. No Japanese version of Southwest, Ryan Air, or Air Asia. You would think for a big market like Japan there would be a major budget carrier but there is none. Sure there smaller one but again not like the scale of Western or Asian budget carriers.
bluedestroyer82@reddit
There’s no huge Japanese budget airline, sure, but not because the market is primarily premium. There are quite a few decent-sized ones, mainly Peach and Jetstar. Japan is a small enough country that there aren’t tons of domestic routes these airlines can fly like Southwest nor does it have the cheap labor that Air Asia has. It’s also just far from the rest of Asia, so there can’t really be a RyanAir type capitalizing on short-haul flights. Mid-sized Japanese airports usually have foreign budget airlines flying to one or two destinations, but an airline like Peach can’t really compete with e.g. VietJet for Vietnam flights. There are also a ton of Korean budget carriers that do a majority, or plurality, or their business in Japan, and Korea’s superior location means they can offer an Icelandair-type model to travelers heading to China. Same can be said w Taiwanese budget airlines to SEA when direct options aren’t available w budget carriers. The market for budget airlines is there, Japan is just more expensive than its neighbors and in a bad geographical position for them.
SoftCatMonster@reddit
Domestic routes also often have to compete with the shinkansen in terms of convenience, time, and price.
For example, the train can get you from Tokyo to Osaka in ~2.5 hours. While technically the flight is ~1.5 hours, if you tack on the travel time to the airport and needing to get through security, you’d need over three hours (much more, if you’re flying through NRT and KIX) to go through the entire process.
bluedestroyer82@reddit
For budget flights, they’re not even competing against the Shinkansen, they’re competing primarily against highway buses. This is part of the reason why the budgets often have longer routes that don’t have highway or night buses (e.g. Jetstar has the majority of its routes from HND to Kyushu, Shikoku, and Hokkaido, with KIX as its only Honshu route, whereas JAL and ANA have upwards of 20 HND -> Honshu routes)
mbashs@reddit
Side note, this pic looks like Japan Airlines Airbus is carrying the ANA plane like the Shuttle transporter and I can’t unsee it lmao
DamNamesTaken11@reddit
I don’t see it happening. Japan is smaller, both in population and land area, about a third of Japan’s population lives in the Tokyo metro, and their population is shrinking. Look at their population pyramid and a big chunk is 50+ so going to decrease some more.
kashkoi_wild@reddit
ZIP is supposed to cover people who can't afford either ANA or JAL. So no 3rd full service carrier doesn't need to exist
Castelino_Jr@reddit
I don’t think so, and Japan doesn’t need one, these two airlines are best in Asia after the Middle East ones and Singapore airlines.
Comrade_sensai_09@reddit
Yes …….absolutely top tier. And let’s not forget, Japan’s airline industry is competing head-to-head with the JR Shinkansen. It’s already an intensely tight market.
Ilovewendyschili@reddit
Just because other countries have a “big 3” doesn’t mean others have to follow suit.
Mammoth_Professor833@reddit
Two of the best…just awesome
lijordon@reddit
I think that Korean can be considered the third in a lot of ways especially regarding to connections. They have very similar connection markets, and they are all in different alliances with different JV partners in the USA.
747ER@reddit
Why is the USA relevant?
lijordon@reddit
becaue they are where all three airlines have a lot of connections to east asia/SE asia, a very important travel corridor
aucnderutresjp_1@reddit
So you'd think McDonalds should be considered a fried chicken restaurant after KFC, especially considering they both sell fries?
Skylord_ah@reddit
Mcdonalds in asia is basically a chicken shop
Weet-Bix54@reddit
Nope, both of them OWN full service, and they both own a ton of subsidiaries covering regionals and budget travel.
NerdyGamerTH@reddit
Originally there was Toa Domestic Airlines, better known as JAS, that attempted to be Japan's 3rd largest carrier. It was founded by Tokyu Corporation, one of Japan's largest private railways in 1971 and subsequently rebranded to JAS in the late 1980s in an attempt to directly compete with JAL and ANA both domestically and internationally.
At its peak, it did have a decently sized international network flying the DC-10 and later on the 777-200, and actually pioneered in some aspects, such as being the first airline in Japan to install PTVs on domestic widebodies.
However, JAS was eventually sold off and merged with JAL in the early 2000s.
Similarly, Skymark Airlines attempted to become the 3rd largest carrier in Japan, through the acquisition of A330s and A380s in the early 2010s, but that ended up putting it in a financial tailspin and it ended up under the control of ANA as a result of restructured.
Prof_PTokyo@reddit
There was a major third airline, JAS, and it was swallowed up by JAL.
dpaanlka@reddit
No? Why are you even pondering this?
Ecthelion-O-Fountain@reddit
No
thanksforallthetrees@reddit
No. For one thing, not enough pilots. Not enough planes. No extra slots at airports. With japans strict adherence to noise abatement they reduce their capacity at many airports. Not like the planes are full all the time either, so there’s no demand for a third airline. Also ANAs new-ish LCC Air Japan just got shut down, but many reasons for that, including low demand.
upbeatelk2622@reddit
Skymark has already attempted this and failed, and ANA bought the 3 Skymark A380s that were already being made, in order to facilitate blocking Delta from taking a stake in Skymark and becoming a big3 airline.