Critical mass of firearms
Posted by Fox7285@reddit | Firearms | View on Reddit | 24 comments
Hi all,
Something I've been thinking about for awhile now. Is there a point where there are so many guns in the US that they get significantly cheaper or manufacturers start struggling to sell new guns?
There are currently more guns than people in the US with only roughly 30% of people actually owning a gun, so there are physically 3-4 guns available per gun owner. As of 2023, it looks like we made/imported about 15 million firearms which is just building on the century+ of "modern" manufacturing. Picking the late 1800s as a "modern" point (modern cartridges and self loaders) we have more than 125 years of backlog to choose from on top of the tens of millions of new guns produced each year.
If the population is leveling out, who's going to buy all these things at current pricing?
Opinions?
ReactionAble7945@reddit
No, because there are collectors who are collectors. Do i NEED another gun? No Would i buy two examples of every revolver if I won the lottery? Yes
I think everyone should settle on their work guns, hunting guns... and finish out the ways to carry and have and...
But this also means having the ammo and having the time, energy to practice...
gaustin@reddit
Guns have gotten massively cheaper over time.
When Glocks started selling in the US in volume in like 1986 they were around $575, IIRC. You can still get them for about that much. An original 17 isn't much different than the V models hitting shelves now.
Most necessities are 3-4x more expensive, if not more.
yungminimoog@reddit
$575 in 1986 dollars appears to be roughly $1700 in 2025 dollars
gagz118@reddit
Among the serious 2A community, buying guns is akin to collecting. Once you have a pistol, rifle and shotgun, do you really “need” another gun? Probably not, but that doesn’t stop people from buying more. Also, like many relatively mature industries, guns have evolved to the point where there are all kinds of special purpose firearms designed to fill certain specific use cases. You want to shoot in a certain type of competition? Then you go and buy this model of 2011… or whatever. You want to shoot sporting clays? Of course you need at least 3 or 4 different shotguns that excel in that role. It goes on and on and isn’t going to stop any time soon.
No-Average6364@reddit
Those kind of problems tend to be self limiting since we have a presidential election every four years.And other elections along the way. election tensions always seem to drive gun sales. Since firearms don't spoil or have a best by date.It's okay if a little bit of a surplus builds up midterm... They'll probably blow out at the first sign of election pressure.. Or any kind of legislation that is even remotely anti gun.
tbrand009@reddit
The population keeps growing and older firearms still continue to wear out.
We'll always need new guns.
Fox7285@reddit (OP)
True. But for every person who shoots their gun until it's worn out there's grandpa with his once shot 1950 target master. Even if only 50% survive that's still adding to the pile.
tbrand009@reddit
Not just getting worn out from shooting, but there's rust, wood stocks that can crack, people who will break it, etc.
RacerXrated@reddit
For every gun that gets worn out, there's 100 or more that never get used.
Dependent_Ad_5546@reddit
Fyi , know one knows actually how many people own guns as much as they do polls, look at number of ccw’s issued etc. the number the media says will never be accurate
ManOf1000Usernames@reddit
The gun market is softening because there is a Republican trifecta in federal office and thus no panic buying. Historically there were rushes to buy guns everytime the Democrats had majorities in office since the late 80s, as that is when the Dems started to turn against general gun ownership. Traditionally before this, government gun bans were generally tied to racist measures dating back to Jim Crow, ever since the civil rights act they have had to try less raciat (still classist) alternate angles that target everyone. The single threat of "the gubment will take your guns" means there never will be a mass cheapening. Despite no federal fears at this time, there are still various state level efforts to ban guns and the threat of future ones so long as the Democrata do not give it up as a plank (and sometimes Republicans supporting them).
Otherwise, stuff only gets cheaper when people do not want them anymore or production abilities advance. CNC machining has cheapened mid range guns to the point that the low end market is dying. SCCY died a few years ago, Hi Point is currently in serious trouble and downsizing severely. Also the Glock patent expiring meant tons of cheaper clones of what used to be THE mid range gun now flood the market. The only guns that stay cheaper otherwise are those for obsolete calibers, like old 32 S&W revolvers.
Bullets will never get cheaper again unless there is another "peace dividend" period. Which with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, various on going civil wars, and China likely invading Taiwan in the next year, we will not see a calming period anytime soon. Even then, lead is simply more expensive as it is all imported as the ancient polluting lead recyclers in the US were closed by Obama and all lead has to be shipped in now from overseas. This is why car batteries are so expensive now, lead is heavy and bulky to ship.
Lastly, pushing things in the opposite direction too is 3D printing and gun "buy backs". Many 3D prints can make a receiver for many common parts kits nowadays (check out guncadindex). Parts kits of things you used to never be able to sell are now 10x the price, almost their full built gun price, because 3D printing is using them up. That and what do you think the source of these parts kits were? The guns were not destroyed by accident and sold off, this was the business model of the companies that cities hired to destroy their "bought back" guns. Chop the receivers to legally destroy the guns, pick out the remaining parts and sell them as kits, make money twice. Cities used to love these companies because they were so cheap, but got wind of how this works post covid with an NYT investigation (linked below) , so it is not as popular. Essentially they were creating the parts kits that the black market was buying to 3d print new, unserialized, guns with. Considering that most of the government considers any 3d printed gun a "ghost gun" to ban, the parts kits have been hoarded already, and the lack of "buy backs" means little supply coming out, price only goes up. That and people were just giving less guns in buy backs, there were only so many boomer hoarders that let their widows dump it at a "buy back" after their deaths. Many just sell them on gunbroker now to find their end of life care or properly give them to their kids.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/10/us/guns-disposal-recycling.html
salchichasconpapas@reddit
The USA has a lot of pillows too ... everyone has at least one, even kids have one or two
You checked the price and selection on pillows lately?
C'mon man
Boogjahideeeen@reddit
Perfect comparison! Both things you should have scattered around your house, on the furniture, you can get special covers for them and there's a big market for that, too - and they're both great for laying your head against after a long day; a cheek-rest is just a pillow for your fun gun times.
GOOLGRL@reddit
"pricing" is a silly question when the fastest growing armed demographic groups are racial/queer minorities, and those groups would rather self-manufacture than give money to companies who donate to lobbyists who donate to politicians who want them dead.
Chicago1871@reddit
We do???
This is news to me.
Trailhawkfishnsh00t@reddit
Well they’re not self manufacturing so aren’t they in fact giving their money to those companies by being the faster growing demographic ? I’m curious what you meant
GOOLGRL@reddit
They aren't? Keep believing that then, that's cool
ServoIIV@reddit
I collect early self loading firearms. I sure hope they get cheaper. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be happening. I do occasionally buy new production guns. I think I've picked up 5 or so new ones this year, but mostly stuff I think is interesting. I'm always keeping an eye out for future forgotten weapons.
WindstormMD@reddit
No, for the same reason that we don’t have a critical mass of many other goods that aren’t perishable.
Take for example the humble dinner plate. When was the last time you thought about it or bought one? Everyone has at least one, so why are they still being made? The answers end up being much the same.
Styles change, technology improves so the oldest things are no longer relevant, some get lost, some stolen, some end up in storage for the better part of a century, some reach the end of useful life eventually.
Fox7285@reddit (OP)
So funny answer to the dinner plate example (which is good). I just today saw a beautiful, silver edged, full service set at a thrift store for a whopping $32. Probably fifty pieces, stuff that probably cost (in todays money) well North of a grand. If it were not for lead concerns I probably would have bought it.
On the styles and technology, the basic cartridge that went into the 1896 C-96 is the same as a cartridge produced in 2025. And while your run of the mill polymer hand gun is newer than steel and aluminum, those older guns are still perfectly capable (1911s for example). If you were given a service handgun from any modern western military between 1950 to 2000 to defend yourself with would you feel wildly out of place compared to if I gave you say a cap and ball revolver?
Actually not being a smart ass here, will be interested to hear you answer.
WindstormMD@reddit
That’s really where my comment about technology comes in. While those older service pistols ‘work’ and are certainly capable of doing a job, are they right for every job?
The biggest current driver of new gun ownership is concealed carry. While I could make a 1911 from over 100 years ago work, it is much easier to conceal a modern S&W Bodyguard 2.0, where I will also have more capacity despite the smaller size.
Metallurgical improvements also matter, in more ways than are obvious at first glance: an easy example is +P 9mm becoming commonplace, because modern materials are so consistent that there is not the worry that was there even as recently as the 1980s of getting a barrel with a tiny flaw that would case it to fail under the higher pressures.
Rifles are affected even more than pistols when it comes to metallurgy, with multi-shot accuracy being largely driven by how the metal of a barrel responds to heat soak.
BreastfedAmerican@reddit
In the coming year I am planning on buying three firearms to replace everything I lost in the tragic boating accident I had last year. After that going to concentrate on buy accessories and parts. Those I think will be the real overlooked items to have in the future.
bdash1990@reddit
The great sinking of '25 I call it.
Fox7285@reddit (OP)
Shame.