Effects of an 80 lb drone falling from 400 feet?

Posted by PoketheBearSoftly@reddit | aviation | View on Reddit | 17 comments

I'm trying to get some ideas of the impacts (pun intended) that drones could have if they were to fail mid-air... As aviators you folks often have interest testing data, videos, etc. and thought you might have this knowledge more at-hand than what I find from the typical drone pilot.

Quick statements:

So, over congested areas, I'm required to fly at 1,000ft AGL to provide noise and safety buffers. But my understanding is that drones can fly at about 400ft.

Now I know ANY aircraft falling from the sky would be bad, but I think it's fair to say that A.) pilots can quickly identify landing sites when something goes wrong, and B.) there just aren't that many of us in the first place. With the exception of major airports, I suspect a lot of us fly where there may be a few hundred T/Ls a day at best.

Drones, on the other hand, are being talked about being deployed for thousands of flights every day in a single city, so it seems that - statistically - the likelihood of one of these falling out of the sky (for whatever reason, although mechanical comes to mind) seems higher than average. (FWIW, Amazon alone is aiming for 500 per day, per location; add in UPS, Fedex, USPS, DHL, Aliexpress/Alibaba, Temu, Walmart, Target,... you see where I'm going.)

Here's my question, then: What kind of damage would an 80lb drone do landing on a car or a house from 400ft AGL? Any tests, videos, similar analyses, etc. anyone has come across?

Everything has risks, and I'm trying to understand what the risk are with these. A 1,700lb Cessna 172 into my house has a pretty well-defined result. 80lb drone? Not so much.

I'm not include a direct human or animal ground strike, as I think that outcome is self-evident. I picked 80lb since that's the weight of the Amazon MK-30s that are buzzing around the Phoenix area (and collided with that crane), and I figure that's as good a starting point as any, although I can only imagine them getting larger if package size demands increase.