[News] High-Capacity SSDs Reportedly Hit Year-Long Delays as Samsung, SK, and Kioxia Run Full Tilt
Posted by imaginary_num6er@reddit | hardware | View on Reddit | 71 comments
InformalAd202@reddit
So from the article it seems to be just premium high capacity(8TB or more) ssds that they have a shortage of. No mention of regular 1TB devices
paeschli@reddit
Price of a WD_BLACK SN850X NVMe SSD 8 TB has not increased meaningfully yet
jenny_905@reddit
The 8TB drives are using the same NAND chips as the lower capacity drives...
constantlymat@reddit
It does trickle down though. If high capacity SSDs cannot be acquired, businesses are most definitely going to target 4TB/8TB consumer SSDs.
That is going to have a knock-on effect on 1TB and 2TB models, too.
IAmYourFath@reddit
These days 1tb is nothing.
ClickClick_Boom@reddit
More great fuckin' news.
doneandtired2014@reddit
What, you don't like the bastard grandson of Clippy consuming gigawatts of power and about 1/3 of the world's total output of memory products to incorrectly answer silly questions that could be resolved with 4 minutes of research?
Or to hallucinate MLK Jr. as a founding member of Run-DMC? /S
....I hate this fucking timeline, man. I truly do.
mcoombes314@reddit
The funny thing is, I distinctly remember people hating Clippy for being useless. Personally I didn't use it enough to form my own opinion on it but a) if you'd offered them ChatGPT they'd have been all over it and b) they'd probably think you were mad for waxing nostalgic about Clippy.
Waterty@reddit
Because it's not about clippy, but AI hate boner cirklejerk
doneandtired2014@reddit
I have every reason to hate it because:
1) my job is getting ready to deploy it and I work in an industry where AI hallucinated nonsense will, conservatively, kill tens of thousands if someone doesn't bother to double check its output.
2) It's a massive security risk given the nature of my work.
3) I don't particularly like watching my utility rates *double* in a very short period of time with more rate hikes in bound because of the data centers that are going up around the city's periphery.
4) I don't like seeing my nation's economy being propped up by a massive bubble created by what amounts to shovel sellers and snake oil salesman having a financially incestuous orgy as they promise the fucking moon.
Waterty@reddit
AI is a tool, it not being used properly doesn't make it bad
arahman81@reddit
So the tools promoting AI as this beautiful solution?
Waterty@reddit
Try getting your head out of your ass
Money_Reserve_791@reddit
If your org can’t make AI verifiable, keep it away from any critical path
What’s worked for me: narrow the scope to a curated, read‑only knowledge base; force structured outputs with citations; auto‑reject or escalate to a human when confidence or coverage is weak; and keep a rules engine as a fallback. Security: run in a VPC or on‑prem, use read‑only creds, log every prompt/output, scrub PII, allowlist tools, set timeouts, and red‑team for prompt injection. Cost/power: prefer small quantized models, batch requests, cache results, and use carbon‑aware scheduling; if the bill still spikes, don’t ship it. ROI: do a 4‑week pilot with KPIs (error rate, review time, incident risk), full TCO, and a kill switch if it doesn’t beat baseline by 20%.
At work we used Azure OpenAI for the model and Pinecone for vetted doc search, and DreamFactory as the read‑only API layer with RBAC and audit logs over our legacy SQL so the LLM only touched approved fields
If it’s not verifiable and accountable, don’t put it in a critical workflow
CrzyJek@reddit
It's not a circlejerk. The human race is not prepared, not even remotely prepared, for AI. This is across industries and lifestyles. Id wager the human race was not and still is not completely prepared for the ramifications of the internet. And now here we are with AI, with the ability to already blur the lines between what is and isn't real.
So I'm with the other guy. I truly hate this timeline.
Waterty@reddit
Did this fulfill your daily dose of idealism posting?
CrzyJek@reddit
You're fucking clueless. Disconnected from reality.
jenny_905@reddit
It's also fucking annoying that they all think he was called Clippy.
His name was Clippit. These kids need to get off my lawn.
ClickClick_Boom@reddit
That's like saying Jim's name isn't really "Jim" it's "James"
Shadow647@reddit
It's not like you were in the market for 30.72 TB E1.L SSDs anyway.
ClickClick_Boom@reddit
I am though on the secondhand market, can't wait for that shit to trickle down to affordable homelab prices. And this doesn't help secondhand pricing. You don't know me.
Shadow647@reddit
Secondhand market is the scraps, manufacturers have no reason whatsoever to care about that
cp5184@reddit
It cannibalizes the market for new consumer hdds and other things...
ClickClick_Boom@reddit
No shit. You seemed to have missed my point how new prices impact second prices, which is why I care about this news.
imaginary_num6er@reddit (OP)
...
TrendForce noted in mid-September that lead times for nearline HDDs have stretched to as long as 52 weeks.
capybooya@reddit
Was checking 96GB and 128GB kits, and they have increased sharply in price lately.
arahman81@reddit
Seeing the 64 GB kits going for 2x what I paid for 96GB just two months ago...ouch.
InformalAd202@reddit
Intentionally didn't include the most important part. Which is that it is mostly affecting very high capacity ssds
VenditatioDelendaEst@reddit
They use the same chips. High capacity drive prices respond first because the ones that have already been assembled are already in the supply chain.
imaginary_num6er@reddit (OP)
Do you think companies will maintain their wafer allocation to low capacity NAND chips? The answer is definitively no.
ComplexEntertainer13@reddit
Thing is some of the lower capacity is manufactured in entirely different and older fabs.
Converting fabs is the cheaper option when the market conditions are slow and margins thin. Keeping everything running and building new fabs is what you do in boom cycles.
InformalAd202@reddit
Doom and gloom rules I get it
milk-jug@reddit
The only joy I take away from all these dooming is the tsunami of used gear that will be sold for next-to-nothing when this AI nonsense craters.
Awkward-Candle-4977@reddit
But most desktop motherboard can't use server ecc ram.
The ai accelerator are also not pcie card
And the used ssd will have little remaining tbw.
ThrowawayusGenerica@reddit
Industrial SSDs have so much more endurance that they could only have 10% of their write endurance left and a typical consumer would never use it up, though
ComplexEntertainer13@reddit
Aye, at typical consumer workloads. Buying used enterprise HDDs is far more risky than SSD.
Most people will never deplete the remaining write endurance in their own life time. Meanwhile the HDD being mechanical, will fail eventually.
Jeep-Eep@reddit
I've heard some alarming things about what these mondo AI slop farms do to both spinning rust and NAND too, IIRC.
ComplexEntertainer13@reddit
Most consumers could have 10% write endurance left on a enterprise SSD. And they still would not get anywhere close to running out during the effective life time of the drive and it is obsolete.
Jeep-Eep@reddit
Yeah, but with how these slop-farmers run things... I ain't sure it would be 10% percent.
Awkward-Candle-4977@reddit
but typical server write more data to storage more than typical desktop too
toedwy0716@reddit
Enterprise drives are rated in device writes per day (DWPD). They’re comically large, think at least 1 DWPD. The lowest I’ve seen them hit is 80% remaining health.
In the hands of a consumer or homelabber they would never wear out. I have an array of u.2 drives and I don’t think I’ve even knocked a percent off the drive health in 3 years.
Awkward-Candle-4977@reddit
tbw spec = dwpd spec x 5 years
typical server write more data to storage more than typical desktop too
SERIVUBSEV@reddit
SSDs will end up in landfill, almost none used in servers are NVME or SATA based.
But we get to experience price going up because high demand now, and we will have price going up later due to low demand and lack of profitability in another year or two.
BlackenedGem@reddit
By NVME presumably you mean M.2? EDSFF/U.2/U.3 all use NVMe as the underlying protocol.
I don't see EDSFF drives going anywhere near consumers, but for ages I've wanted to see U.2/U.3 ports on consumer motherboards. If there's a glut of enterprise drives knocking around then I could see motherboard manufacturers using it as a differentiator.
Awkward-Candle-4977@reddit
you can use pci card adapter for all of them
https://www.ebay.com/itm/376032395278
BlackenedGem@reddit
Well of course, but that adds to cost and awkwardness. You'll already have a GPU in your rig and maybe another card or two (audio/network/front headers/etc.).
ComplexEntertainer13@reddit
There's converters for just about anything in the used market. You can even get shit like PCIe adapters for the weird ass form factor that Nvidia started using in their servers for GPUs. EDSFF is child's play to convert in comparison.
We had them and they saw very little use so they went away again. I have both a old Asus and some EVGA board with them sitting in boxes somewhere.
But U.2/3 is just PCIE. You can get adapters both directly as PCIe add in cards or directly from M.2. I really don't see the point in locking in ports on the consumer side. When 99% of drives used will be M.2. Intel back in the day even sold Optane with a M.2 > SFF-8639 cable.
ShareACokeWithBoonen@reddit
Nice, another user of this fine sub I can RES tag as "hardware idiot"
Clean_Experience1394@reddit
No need to be a dick
ShareACokeWithBoonen@reddit
No need for /u/SERIVUBSEV to comment literal misinformation just so that they can complain 'waaah corrupt hardware industry' and feel better about themselves
jenny_905@reddit
PCMR is leaking :(
calcium@reddit
They're all NVME based - they're just not in a consumer form factor like M.2. Ideally they're in U.2/U.3 but there's also various EDSFF form factors that aren't easily used by consumers.
Dpek1234@reddit
Pci express to u2 or u3?
Cheap ssd is cheap ssd
milk-jug@reddit
For the data hoarders amongst us, there are lots of options for HBA cards that connects U.2 / U.3 drives through PCIe. There are also a whole lot of enthusiasts that buys used enterprise gear and servers and run homelabs.
constantlymat@reddit
Worth checking out Wendell's YouTube channel for information about that matter.
Vushivushi@reddit
During the bust period where there is excess supply and production capacity but low demand and that's when prices will be low. We've been in that period for the past few years.
If YMTC is able to acquire more equipment, they can also continue to disrupt the NAND market.
It's not the end times yet.
jonydevidson@reddit
They said this with crypto mining as well, the day never came, these farms just transitioned into AI hosting sites.
There will always be need for compute.
valarauca14@reddit
They're already for sale today.
The first problem is that you probably don't have an E3.S connector, SAS3 cables, MCIO ports to use them, or have a spare PCIe4.0 x8 lanes to actually saturate the drive.
The second problem is there is still a pretty large demand for these drives. Prices are still in the 3-5k USD range for a drive within only \~90 daily drive wipes left (basically 90x Drive Capacity writes left). Because accessing 16-60TiB of inference data at PCIe4.0 speeds is a big deal and if the drive goes into read-only mode, what ever.
Kougar@reddit
I used to think so, but AI is replacing too many jobs and already upended industries. The current infinite growth mantra the industry is in will eventually crash into reality, but I'm not sure it will be more than a partial deflation instead of a nice big pop like crypto was. If it gets bad enough someone will buy or rent out idle datacenters just to use them as a cheap ready-made supercomputer.
Of course I don't have to point out how stupidly big crypto is these days despite those two massive bubbles popping, either. Whether it's crypto or the stock market there's not a whole lot of difference anymore in most cases. Unfortunately with AI it has real uses, it has instant attraction to casual users, and it has plenty of niche applications it can fill.
Scion95@reddit
How many times has crypto bubbled and then popped?
Looking at the chart (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_bubble) it seems like at least once in 2017-2018, and then 21-22 ish.
Kougar@reddit
Yep, I only consider there to be two, but one could argue three. First time people thought it was gone for good too, massive dumping of GPUs and dedicated mining hardware. Second time around people held onto coins and only dumped unprofitable dedicated hardware, but there wasn't a glut of GPUs on the used market like there was the first time. By the third sharp drop people know what it was and were treating it just like another speculative stock asset.
RedTuesdayMusic@reddit
It's very performance sensitive. The Samsung 9100 Pro 8TB is in stock everywhere and the 26% faster WD SN8100 8TB is sold out everywhere. Clearly there's still some wiggle room for consumers to get covered.
ML7777777@reddit
Tariffs and high demand. Worst time to build a gaming PC.
GeorgeRRZimmerman@reddit
Worst time, so far.
Every year since people started mining using video cards has been the worst year to build a gaming PC.
VenditatioDelendaEst@reddit
Three decades ago, a PC cost $1,000 in 1995-dollars, and would be obsolete well inside five years.
IAmYourFath@reddit
Worst was crypto mining
venfare64@reddit
I guess only EU got decent deal short term maybe? Rest of world still screwed up though, ask Aussie and their neighbors, also LATAM and Africa of course.
jenny_905@reddit
Somewhat on-topic but: I picked up a Kioxia Exceria Pro 2TB TLC drive recently, weirdly when reading reviews I found they do not sell in the USA, anyone know why?
imaginary_num6er@reddit (OP)
Probably due to US patents
jenny_905@reddit
Kioxia, inventor of NAND flash has patent issues in USA? lol.
Candid_Report955@reddit
Another example of how corporate America screwed itself and the American people by getting rid of high value domestic US manufacturing.
They're too dumb to fix the situation. It will require the heavy hand of government or they will act like everything's fine, because short-term earnings.
You can't expect good long-term decisions from greedy people who only care about next year's compensation packages.