Population collapse and addressing the elephant in the room
Posted by mynameakevin@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 119 comments
I'm curious why nobody talks about how the education of women is a large factor in falling birth rates, and why the global trend has been heading downwards since the 70's, and how we are under replacement pretty much everywhere except parts of Africa.
Women have a biological urge to marry up, and it's called hypergamy. This was never a problem before, but now that women are being educated, and with educational institutions being better suited for women, this naturally produces more highly educated women than men.
The end result is local women do not find the local men suitable any longer, and the reason why religious groups don't have the same problem. If you remove religious factors that push for more kids, and marrying early, than you are only left with the biological driver.
I'm not saying it's women's fault, or that education isn't a good thing. There are more reasons than this, like the cost of living going up, and the constant erronious pushing by the media and tv fearmongering overpopulation, but ignoring other facets like hypergamy because it's a touchey subject wouldn't be right either.
Some ways to fix this issue that I can think of is creating more incentives. Subsidized housing for people who have kids would be a start. Pushing away social biases for single women who have kids would be another. If women can't find partners in the local population any longer, than the natural case is we need to help the women who have kids with the higher status men who won't settle down with them get by.
LemonFreshenedBorax-@reddit
If the problem you're trying to solve is "hetero women appearing to be less fired up about the concept of marriage than they used to be" then to be completely honest I don't think this will help very much.
extinction6@reddit
Only sadists, the uniformed and the scientifically illiterate would have children now. Nothing illustrates more clearly how poorly informed humans are than the belief that people should still be having children.
Look at all the articles in this sub that say how bad things will be by 2050. A child born now will be 25 years old then. What a life they will have watching billions of people die off in tragic ways.
For all the people that participate here that are frustrated that society went in the wrong direction and see that there is nothing the we can do to stop the impacts from climate change, now we can use our knowledge to save millions from needless human suffering.
If you want to feel better about the situation that we are in help spread the word that climate science projections from the most respected institutions the world over clearly state that the world will be in a horrible state by 2050 and we will likely reach a 4 degree increase in global temperatures by 2100.
Again, here's the math. 2025 plus 25 years = 2050. If you don't understand what the world will be like when a child is 25 years old just read the articles in this sub by Richard Crim, papers by James Hansen or run AI prompts like "Create a list of the 10 most highly respected climate science institutions in the world" second prompt "what do these institution predict that the living conditions on the Earth will be like by the year 2050".
Want to help prevent millions from needless human suffering? Spread the scientific projections that prove that people should not be having children.
All the best!!
ansibleloop@reddit
You missed the best one
https://actuaries.org.uk/media/wqeftma1/planetary-solvency-finding-our-balance-with-nature.pdf
The actuaries (the people who insurance companies go to before insuring anything) say that if we hit 3C by 2050, then 4 billion people will die by 2050
Yep that's right, there's a 50% chance you or I may not be here by 2050
AstronautLife5949@reddit
My brother knows better, is 41, and is going along with what his 36 year old girlfriend wants. I'm beyond disappointed and disgusted. Made it this far, then they decide to have kids just as the world is falling apart.
ConduitofGlass@reddit
See, im betting that the fertility decline is going to turn out to be caused by microplastics.
ansibleloop@reddit
That + the cost of raising kids + stagnant wages + you know the world will be worse in 20 years so why subject your hypothetical kids to that?
arkH3@reddit
Both can be true at the same time.
Since more than 20 years ago I've always had friends in my circles trying to conceive as couples that could not, or only after years of trying, and sometimes years of IVF. This was not limited to couples who were past their supposed biological prime. Infertility trends are not fiction. We may in fact in be tempted to underestimate the scale if people in our circles are not trying to conceive, or don't share that they are struggling to.
ansibleloop@reddit
Nope this is fucking stupid
Ordinary-Figure8004@reddit
There are 8 billion people in the world. 6 billion of those came about in the last ~100 years.
We need FEWER people on this planet, not more! Someone explain to OP the concept of exponential growth.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Let me explain a very difficult concept. Do you know the term replacement rate?
Humans need a 2.1 replacement rate to keep the population at the current level.
Let's look at the USA. The usa has a replacment rate of 1.6 per women, and an average lifespan of 78.
Let's pretend the USA has a population of 1 billion. After 100 years, the population will be 400 million assuming the replacement rate stays at 1.6.
South Korea has a 0.8 replacement rate, so, doing the math, there will be 2% South Koreans left.
Of course because of immigration the USA and South Koreas populations remain stable, but even third world countries are under replacement now.
Ordinary-Figure8004@reddit
Jesus Christ, how condescending can you be?
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
its good that you now understand. That's great for you. Knowledge is power!
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Yeah, it was called the baby boomer era. Let me explain a very difficult concept. Do you know the term replacement rate?
Humans need a 2.1 replacement rate to keep the population at the current level.
Let's look at the USA for example. The usa has a replacment rate of 1.6 per women, and an average lifespan of 78.
After 100 years, the population will be 400,000. The only reason the US is even growing is because of immigration, otherwise it would be shrinking from generation to generation.
South Korea has a 0.8 replacement rate, so, they'll pretty much be gone in 100 years.
Embarrassed-Run-9120@reddit
Natalists, especially red pillers like OP, are part of the problem.
AstronautLife5949@reddit
Jesus Christ, who cares. We SHOULD go extinct. I WELCOME IT.
nebulacoffeez@reddit
*women don't want to marry incels and, unlike in the past, actually have the freedom & economic opportunity to choose not to marry incels. FTFY
WIAttacker@reddit
Incels will create an entire worldview that assumes women are pretty much a different species, irrational and driven solely by hormones and base instincts, and then they are surprised women don't want to date them.
arkH3@reddit
It sems to me a key tenet of the worldview, present as a not fully acknowleged assumption in this post, is that all or most women compete for a narrow pool men for probably all "key" purposes (sex, marriage, procreation) and the pool is defined by some combination of money/power and physical fitness, and all other qualities of men, and all other purposes why women seek men, are abstracted from. This to me is a) a falsehood layered upon a falsehood layered upon a falsehood, and b) behind a lot of further theories, like this one.
ExcitementWrong3360@reddit
In other words that are irresponsible assholes?
hillClimbin@reddit
Shut the fuck up.
KrankyKong28@reddit
Came here to say this, thanks for saving me the time!
feo_sucio@reddit
I actually think that in a weird and problematic roundabout way, you are correct. Educated women realize that the world is full of losers, rapists, egotists, violent men with anger issues, and other such undesirables. It takes a lot to be a good man. More than our fathers knew or taught us.
However, I don't think that this is straightforwardly collapse-related, only tangentially. As generation after generation of sexually frustrated losers, basement-dwellers, and other such bozos take to their keyboards and phones to express their discontent with their inability to make women feel safe, heard, or respected, naturally they will point the finger at women, or minorities, or other issues that are completely and propagandistically made up by the rich to keep them distracted.
But who cares? You're essentially talking about reproduction rates. There's already too many people for the way we live. Collapse is going to happen one way or another, regardless of how many women lower the bar enough to hook up with men who have a little bit of scrap and yet are complete pieces of shit.
And believe me, there are plenty of those women left.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Nobody is to blame here, not men or women. I am talking about how we can help support these women who are only following their own natural processes.
Women want men better than them, and this is why single mothers are the norm. It's a fact, and we should address it, and find some way to help support these women.
Antique_Rhubarb6601@reddit
Maybe, just maybe, natural selection is happening right now, biologically. Certain types of blood lines are most likely just being “bred” out of the gene pool that probably shouldn’t have ever existed, due to oppression of women for centuries.
feo_sucio@reddit
You overstepped here. Prove it or shut the fuck up
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5214284/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Hypergamy is a fact. It's just as much of a fact as how men want young, fertile women. It's natural and there is nothing wrong with it.
feo_sucio@reddit
No. Address the assertion that single mothers exist because they want better. I find that idea (posed by you) laughable.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
When there is a small pool of men, and a lot of women that want those same men... well, to put it bluntly there are naturally going to be lots of losers.
Since this is how it is, I am saying we should help support single mothers.
feo_sucio@reddit
Kevin, I hypothesize that you’re a virgin.
Single mothers exist largely because of the abandonment of male responsibility. That’s not to say that a woman’s decision to have a child is automatically the right choice, there’s countless women and men out there putting the dick in the pussy when they shouldn’t be. It’s literally the oldest story, succeeded only by the story of death.
Men and women make poor choices, constantly. I start to lose sight of what you’re actually saying, other than thinking that you’re kind of weird.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
The discussion is about population collapse, which is in part caused by the education of women, which are in turn reducing the amount of men they find acceptable, leading to less women with kids... but I've been forced into defending certain facts instead, like hypergamy.
feo_sucio@reddit
Are you a virgin?
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
The way you are behaving is a little suspect. Please have some self respect, and don't try to steer the topic.
fastsaltywitch@reddit
The oppression of women has affected greatly human's sexual natural selection. If women were truely free hundreds of years ago and all decided that they only choose kind and social men as partners, we would not have kings. We might not be in this mess. Just a thought.
19049204M@reddit
I hadn't thought about this, you have a point here and it makes me angrier for our current shitsuation.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
What in the incel psuedoscience is this.
jacktacowa@reddit
Yeah, incel overreach, but definitely education of women is one of the most effective population control measures
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
Even us educated women would have kids in a world worth having them in. If educating women about the world reduces population, then we've made a world not worth reproducing in.
Antique_Rhubarb6601@reddit
Big agree. I would have had children with my husband years ago, if the world, economy and our personal finances could more comfortably allow it. It’s genuinely quite simple, lots of PEOPLE (not just women deciding this) are choosing to wait, or not to, because the “resources” are just not there anymore.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
That's not exactly right. Women are as educated, if not more educated than men, which means the current pool of local men is naturally not suitable, and we need to account for that.
The pool of suitable men has shrunk greatly, which means many women per man is norm, and that's perfectly natural.
Why are we all ignoring the fact that single mothers are the norm, and this is going to continue. (I was also raised by a single mother, and I know how hard it was for her, and respect her for doing her best)
Facts are facts. There are no longer enouh suitable men available, so we need to help single mothers raise the next generation, or we really do face population collapse.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
What do you mean "suitable men." Is this whole thing a fantasy because you feel you aren't a suitable man? Aside from the inceliousness and thinking women should exist to have your babies, you're probably fine bruh. Get some therapy. Mingle with folks. Find a hobby. Stop planning shit for other people's bodies and you'll be alright.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
No, but i do think we should stop going against human nature. Women, biologically want to marry up, and i'm saying we shouldn't go against that, and instead support that.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
Cite your sources.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
Being a woman, and knowing a lot of women, it has not been my experience that women want to "marry up." I've seen absolute queens settle for pure garbage. But that is my experience and anecdotal. So if you have evidence to support your claim that we need to restructure society based on women's biological urges, please do share.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Hypergamy is a fact like gravity is a fact. There are many papers on it.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5214284/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Why is hypergamy a problem anyways? it's no more weird than men greatly preferring young, fertile women?
We each have different drivers, and that's nature.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
That study is about humans marrying with a focus on exchange of benefits- economic or social- with nothing saying women specifically seek to "marry up."
If your solution to a societal problem requires people other than you to subjugate and sacrifice themselves willingly for the good of "humanity," it is not a solution. It is lazy thinking. It is sociopathic fantasy. It is cowardly. It is wishful thinking: that there exists a magical solution to this problem wherein I get all the benefits (and also sex!) while this other group of humans suffer, but oh well. It's just human nature!
To couch your very personal need to get some as a solution to the very real problems humanity is facing is madness.
Wollff@reddit
Oh, it's a lot worse than that.
This study in particular maintains the homogamy is the norm: People tend to marry others which have similar educational and social standing as their own. That's the norm. The study explicitly says that. Not "hypergamy is the norm". But "homogamy is the norm".
And where that doesn't happen, there regularly is an exchange going on, where higher education can stand in for higher social standing (and vice versa) to "maintain balance". That exchange mechanism happens to explain that overall you very rarely have a one dimensional unbalanced "hypergamy" situation, where one partner outshines the other in both, education and social standing.
To top that off, the study also indicates that in this exchange pattern there are no gender differences. Well educated women don't "marry up" toward men of higher social standing. And men of high social standing don't get themselves trophy wives with high education and low social standing. This study indicates that this pattern is no more common than the other way round, with genders reversed.
Those are the key conclusions of that study OP linked to support the argument that hypergamy is common, and that there are gender differences in social choice of marriage partners.
I for one found that so funny, that I had to roast OP on that (and on the fact that OP seems to have found that study by using chatGPT, obviously linking to it without reading it).
Now I want to spread that joy around!
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Absolutely not. I'm saying things are the way they are, and we should support these natural processes.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
The problem being that the assumptions you make about how things are are fundamentally flawed. I reiterate: meet some people. Some of them should be women. Get some therapy. Revisit your big brain solutions when you reach the epiphany that other humans, including women, are as human as you.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
I only want to talk about the facts that people aren't talking about enough. It would be nice if you were a bit more respectful of that, but each of us is their own person.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
Respect is earned. You have earned zero respect from me. And you are not talking about facts, you are talking about your assumptions. I don't owe you niceness. No woman owes you babies or a harem or reproducing the human race mid collapse.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
I don't quite understand where you got that notion. "No woman owes you babies or a harem or reproducing the human race mid collapse."
From where did you read this... Can you give me a quote?
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
You don't quite understand a lot of things, based on your interactions here.
But I, against all odds, cling to the belief that humans can always learn and do better. So there's hope.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Well okay, nice talking to you. Have a good one, friend.
Wollff@reddit
Let me be blunt: Stupid move.
First of all, if you want to use ChatGPT to link to a paper you obviously have not read, you should clean up the link so that it doesn't become too obvious that this is obviously what you did.
"utm_source=chatgpt.com"
To sum it up: lol
There are many papers on it. You don't know a single one. You have not read a single one. You have no idea about anything. So you had to ask ChatGPT to give you something.
Anyway. If you don't know anything about a topic... I would propose that you don't make big assertions on it like: "It's a law of nature like gravity!", because if that turns out to be wrong, that would look pathetic.
Still, if you choose to do this, please, at least read the paper you link. It would be enormously more pathetic than just making big unfounded assertions if by some unlucky accident the outcome of the paper you linked, supported the opposite of what you are saying. People would point at you, and laugh at you so hard that they would fall down on the ground, if you did that.
Anyway. And interesting little tidbit from the paper:
For your information: Homogamy is EXACTLYY "NOT hypergamy".
In plain English, so that you also can understand the paper you linked and didn't read: Marriage happens mostly among people of equal standing. And where marriage doesn't happen among people of equal standing, there is evidence for exchange, in that higher social standing will be be made up for by higher education (and vice versa).
The paper would have to say something about the "natural gender differences" you were harping on as well:
So, to trandlate that into common English for the lazy people who have not read the paper: The exchange between education and social status that happens is the same for men and women. It happens in both directions equally.
So, if in the past there was no problem with men having higher education, and finding marriage partners, since the pattern is symmetrical, there is no problem the other way round either. That's what the paper supports. While you were saying the opposite.
I mean, jfc, chatgpt couldn't have linked you anywhere worse lol
tl;dr: Having chatgpt link you to a paper that supports the opposite of your redpill nonsense was one of the most pathetic intellectual failures I have ever witnessed here. Thank you for that experience. I will treasure it.
ExcitementWrong3360@reddit
"Hypergamy is a fact like gravity is a fact." So FACTS are indisputable... right???? Hypergamy is NOT a FACT.... just a casual google search with bring up this point....
".....its prevalence and exact nature are subjects of ongoing study and debate..."
.
ExcitementWrong3360@reddit
Why the personnel attacks on this post? He is just saying support single Mom's because he watched how tough it was on his Mom.... Bad form...
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
What. He is 1. Assigning bullshit characteristics to women and claiming it's just "nature" and 2. Arguing that men without "high status" are worthless and 3. Suggests the solution to declining birth rates are normalizing harems. The post is insane.
ExcitementWrong3360@reddit
Please don't underhandedly slam other women that are making the scarifies and doing the heavy lifting to justify your own "decisions"..... I have a uterus, am very well educated and have had a successful career.... I am also still raising my last child. I am very aware of the collapse that is ongoing.... I am old enough to have read the FIRST publication of "Limits to Growth"..... And yes I watched James Hansen testify to congress in 1988 LIVE..... Raising a child is a shit ton of sacrifice, commitment and work... it always has been.... Now if you don't want to do that because it's not "fun" enough or "is to demanding"... Then at least have enough courage to admit that it is "not for you", don't blame it on "other people..." or "the world".
This is not the first collapse that humanity has experienced, (Although it is going to be the first "global" one and odds don't look so good that we will make it out of this.....) Every birth carries a death sentence... It is bitter sweet human truth that when you give birth, you have to acknowledge that the beautiful child you are holding in your arms will some day die, as will you....
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
You're absolutely right, I should not have been so flippant or reductive in my comment. I apologize for that. People have myriad reasons for procreating or not.
AFewBerries@reddit
I wouldn't. I just don't want kids.
jacktacowa@reddit
Yeah, but most of you wouldn’t plan to have six even if you could afford it
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
I can't speak for everyone with a uterus but that's a big hell no from me.
19049204M@reddit
Good grief, for real. Between this and birth control fear mongering elsewhere on reddit - is this what they're trying to push? Instead of capitalism and greed, let us do what we always do, and just blame women!
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Absolutely not. I don't want us to go extinct, but I think we should talk about all factors in declining birth rates. This is not anti women, this is about addressing real issues and how to solve them.
For example, if there is now a small population of suitable men to go around, then we need to make it easier for single mothers to get by, or we might encounter a very real population collapse.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
Listen to me. Get off the internet. Go talk to people, a subset of which are women. You are spouting nonsense. Nobody worth associating with in the real world takes any of that - hypergamy as nature, humans as "high" or "low" value, attributing normal human needs to be safe and cared for and have autonomy by gender- as truth.
We are facing an omnicrisis. We need aware and educated humans to navigate it. Please pull yourself out of the manosphere and join us in the real world.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Yes, there are many facets to this issue, and not only one. It's good we agree on that.
I'm not talking cross purpose here, all reasons for population collapse should, and need to be addressed.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
The list of things we do not agree on is miles long, beginning with the premise that making more humans is a net moral good.
ExcitementWrong3360@reddit
Hmm... I was nodding my head to your comments up to this point... Bringing children into the word, nurturing and raising them to respect others and the planet we live on and to be a "good human" is not only a shit ton of work and sacrifice but is indeed a "net moral good'....
Creepy_Valuable6223@reddit
The argument being made is that if the world is going to become uninhabitable, then it is not a moral good to produce children since they will suffer terribly. The argument is that the old arguments about childbearing and rearing don't hold.
19049204M@reddit
Humans are not ever going extinct unless the planet is completely inhospitable. Corporations are destroying our planet, period. The rich are destroying the world for make believe numbers and 'profit'. I see you, I hear you and you have others here telling you this is NOT what requires focus.
Take a breath and please, be well.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Even under the assumption we never go extinct, if the population of young people were to half, the pyramid of old people at the top being supported by young people at the bottom will collapse.
Look at South Korea. They have a 0.75 fertility rate per women. This means each generation the demographic of young koreans is more than halving.
So, what's going to happen in 30 years when all those working korean people retire? Who's going to support them? Their young people will be crushed under that burden, and it's not just Korea, it's all over the world.
ExcitementWrong3360@reddit
You are assuming that things will go on as they currently are... They will not. With the collapse of our health care systems the gain on life span will be lost. With the collapse of the CDC and health monitoring you are going to start to see known and new diseases take it's toll.... And then you have the threat of war... With the collapse of the "safety nets" and public education you will see fewer families formed/children born...
Is population going to contract? Yes but with that comes the collapse of a economic global systems that is dependent of growth... and it will become a positive feed back loop until a new system emerges,
Nwwoodsymom@reddit
Right now caregiving is one of the lowest paid professions. I imagine society will have to adapt and raise wages and/or find alternate sources, like allow more immigrants to fill those jobs.
We adapted as a society to boomers massive population, it’s not rocket science.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
You are nicer than me but OP, yes this. The problem is the parasites with the power and money destroying our habitat to make line go up. Focus on the problem.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
I have been thinking for some time now that a potential indicator for the upcoming slowdown, halt, and downturn of the ever-expanding economic system is how often they introduce new economic factors. It's speeding up.
We used to rely exclusively on physical assets. Then came digital assets that had a real-world anchor (like company stocks), and then completely digital assets like crypto, Even when rolling out new ways to make money at breakneck speeds, it's not easy to supplement humans, so the next big psyop is to keep making more people.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
It's almost like the concept of infinite growth in a finite system is flawed
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
I get the impression that all of the relevant people who run society on the principles of this system are also fully aware of this.
But they wouldn't accept a system that isn't growth oriented, even though that's the only societal structure that doesn't spiral out of control. Services, digital assets, etc. are all kicking the can down the road, because all of them focus on expanding rather than conserving.
Though who knows how many regular people today would accept preserving a limited, but livable system over today's increasingly unlivable one that is centered on growth.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
I would like a system that prioritizes people and our health and well-being over profit pretty please. Am so on board with that.
The relevant people at the top, were they hoarding anything but wealth and power, we'd be working to get them institutionalized so they can't hurt themselves or anyone else.
It's partially why this sort of rhetoric from the OP- that we can blame/exploit our way out of this if we just put the onus on women/immigrants/LGBT+ folks/fill in your scapegoat keeping you from utopia here - makes me so furious.
There is a small and publicly known group of people making the world terrible and violently upholding the system that allows them to do so.
And the exploited keep falling in line when this systemically entrenched group of parasites point their finger at someone else.
19049204M@reddit
A-fucking-men. Agree with every word you've typed. So much money has been thrown around to distract us from the true parasites of society.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
"Listen women were meant to wash my ass and bear my children, which is just nature, and so obviously we need laws to enforce that natural alignment."
I'm so tired of this.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
When conditions aren't right for reproduction, animals don't reproduce. We are crushed by the cost of living, trapped in an endless cycle of debt, facing the death of our planet. But sure, buddy, it's educated women that's the problem and normalizing harems is obviously the solution. Jesus christ.
WIAttacker@reddit
I think it's the exact opposite. Humans only breed when they breed like animals - when they have no birth control and/or don't really think about their future and what they can realistically provide for them.
When humans start to breed like humans: Have option to have sex without pregnancy, consider how much money and resources they have, only have them with partner that they are convinced will make a good parent, and only have them if they are 100% convinced they want them and they themselves will be a good parent, it's then when fertility rate takes a hit.
arkH3@reddit
Women having more than 1 child is not necessarily result of their biological urge, but also other pressures and influences, as well as, in some cases, lack of access to contraception or autonomy over the decision of how many children to have, and at what age.
The reasons education in women results in having fewer children may more likely include that:
A) they understand that having more children is linked to a considerable financial strain / increases likelihood of poverty for the family, and make choices accordingly.
B) they simply start having children later, which shortens the biological window during which child rearing would occur; and also delays the first attempt at conception to potentially past biological prime (ie it takes more time of trying to have the first child, further reducing the overal "maximum attainable child rearing potential" so to speak). This may also be result of likely being matched with older partners who also may be past their biological peak.
C) they are more autonomous in decisions on how many children to have, and when to have them, and more aware of other avenues for self-actualisation that will be shut or considerably reduced for them by having more children. (Not necessarily career pursuits. Even some affluent women who are home makers choose to have one child.)
D) If a girl child is born to a family that wishes for the girl to be educated and enables this for her (which will sound odd to people in societies and communities where you don't need enablement from parents to study), the parents may overall have other life outcomes for her in mind than getting married and rearing children, and may be further influencing her in that direction even after she completes her studies. And the same would be true for influence from educated peers.
D) The fertility crisis overall (declining rates in both men and women, some of it due to exposure to toxicity).
I would agree that women being educated probably raises their expectations on their prospective life partners overall (where they have control over that choice), but that may be about many factors other than or additional to the partner's educational attainment... e.g. their inner maturity, lack of self-centered behaviours, and so on, which may shrink their prospective marriage pools considerably, for reasons outside of their influence.
I don't think the measured correlation between educational attainment in women and reduced birth rates is specific to places where women have higher average attainment than men (which is not all places) - or is it? (Haven't checked stats).
I agree that declining birth rates have significant consequences for a population collapse, and - in the context of this subreddit - especially for what constitutes a functional exctinction treshold (learnt a new term just yesterday! ;) ) for humanity.
In a scenario a few decades later, when humanity's population may have realistically already declined dramatically, and fertility may have continued declining with accumulating toxicity and compounding exposure to it... (and with other health factors reducing fertility and birth rates potentially increasing)... the burden of reaching the 2.1 maintenance level average birth rate would be placed disproportionately on a subset of women or couples who are still able to conceive. I.e. certain women would be nominally required to have (many?) more than 2 children in order to compensate. And this may be incompatible with their personal aspirations and choices, or even physical ability. (Which to me does open prospects of scary Handmaind' Tale scenarios).
Also, if this is past societal collapse, which it realistically could be, rates of women dying in child birth may go up to pre-modern medicine and surgery levels, which would further reduce chances of women able to conceive having many children in order to hit the average 2.1 rate.
All of this suggests that the functional extinction threshold may be much higher than most of us would intuitively think, and some might even posit we are past the threshold.
What I don't agree with is OP's reasoning for why educational attainment in women results in reduced birth rates, which appears only applicable to some contexts and also looks away from a range of other at least equally plausible explanations.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
There are many factors, and this is only one of them.
In your own life, how many women do you know of dating men who are worse off than them?
It would seem strange wouldn't it? It's like if a young man was dating a women in her 50's. It doesn't make sense biologically, but the reverse is true.
arkH3@reddit
I know at least 3 women who dated men who were materially and educationally worse off, and at least 1 who settled with a man like that. I also dated men who were materially worse off than me. As someone else said here - I don't think education and money is anywhere near such a big criterion for women as you believe it to be. There are far more important criteria - and men meeting those criteria are very scarce. I do think, as someone else has suggested here, that you can get this confirmed through conversations with women.
I think your hypergamy theory is missing a major point: How many men do you think are happy to date or marry a woman who earns more than them? I head the "unacceptability of men earning less than women in a relationship" expressed as a major no-go by even highly educated men (including a university professor for one in a class.... yikes... as part of his grand theory on divorce rates growing - that the issue was women earning...). My ex partner was asked by his educated and financially successful men-friends how he "navigated" that he was earning less than me.
Based on my lived experience, women marrying upward may be much more likely result of men wanting to marry downward than result of any biological reason - for which you have not provided any evidence, it seems.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Thank you for your reply. Hypergamy is not a theory, it's a fact.
Men marry down because status is not a criteria for them, and wage doesn't necessarily matter for women either.
Wage is an easy thing to point to, but it's not the only one. For example, the man could be a great communicator, she could see the man as having greater future potential than her own. He could also be more physically attractive in relation to herself Or... she could also be mentally ill.
The perspective also matters. It doesn't matter if you yourself see a women settling for a man which you consider lower status than her, because you may not know his potential future value that she see's.
You also say that you dated a man you thought was lesser than yourself? Yeah, that's going to happen a lot.
arkH3@reddit
You keep saying hypergamy is a fact and it's a fact that it is biological - but the only link to a source you provided for this didn't say that. I'm afraid the more you repeat that it is a fact without proving it in an acceptable way, the more you will undermine your credibility here, and discourage people from taking anything you say seriously.
I would agree that perspective matters. But in the examples I listed, I obviously know a lot more about the couples than you do. So you suggesting I merely projected a gap is not going to help.
I said the men (plural, not singular) I dated were earning less than me and had in some cases they had lower educational attainment. I did not think I thought they were lesser than me - that's you projecting your perception that women measure men based on criteria that actually don't matter to them a whole lot - if you ask anyone.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
https://jhr.uwpress.org/content/58/1/260
Just so you realize, hypergamy isn't controversial among scientists.
You are dodging my quyestion. Ive asked you, how many young men do you see dating women in their 50's? zero?
I'm sure you know young women dating older men however, and thats because we have different criteria. Appearance isn't as big a factor for women, but for men it's almost all that matters. Do you even dispute that fact?
Creepy_Valuable6223@reddit
I can think of two extraordinarily successful men I know who are married to women who are 12+ years old than they are; they come to mind immediately; if I consider it I'll think of more. Jeff Bezos wasn't looking for someone young.
You may have a small social set, and get your info from groupthink on internet sites where unsuccessful young men repeat things relentlessly to one another until they are taken as facts.
digdog303@reddit
please describe what your ideal numbers would look like re: global population, birth rates etc
flower-power-123@reddit
Women in Israel have a lot of kids. They are among the most educated people in the world. I reject your major hypothesis.
It is interesting how this subject brings out the worst in people. I'm not going to post any links because this rapidly gets into banning territory but look up Louise Perry, and Malcolm and Simone Collins. Malcolm and Simone in particular have made a career out of this subject.
I think this post is poorly worded and generally objectionable in tone. I think that you should delete the post. Maybe resubmit when you have had an opportunity to do some more research.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
There is a large majority of religious fundamentalists in Israel, and religion puts great pressure on suppressing the biological urges to marry up.
I'm saying we need to talk about how to deal with this issue for societys that don't have a fundamentalist majority.
flower-power-123@reddit
The Hardim make up about 14% of the population of Israel. If we can say that half of them are women then about 7% of the population is Haredi women. You don't kbnow what you are talking about. Most of the population of Israel is composed of secular Jews. They make a lot of babies.
You have done no research. Please remove your post.
ExcitementWrong3360@reddit
I have to agree with the lack of factual research around this post. I think it is an interesting subject to kick around, but the kind of rhetoric that this post has is counter productive.
WIAttacker@reddit
The incels twisting into pretzels with pseudoscience to simply refuse realize that the only thing that changed is that women now have the option to do something else besides marrying first half-decent guy they meet and have as many children as he wants.
It has nothing to do with "smaller pool", it was that the pool always sucked, not marrying just wasn't a realistic option. Female education is correlation, not causation, it simply means women can have their own careers.
People are struggling to realize that the cause of falling fertility rate is simple: Having kids kinda sucks, especially for women. It was that not marrying and staying childless was 10x worse than marrying someone you don't particularly like and having children you don't want, as it meant society shunned you and you had no working hands on the field or support in the old age.
Don't get me wrong, I do believe that having kids can be fulfilling and a lot of people want them, but how many of them want to have more than 3? How many of them are willing to marry someone they don't love just so they can have them? How many of them are willing to have them without money or resources to give them good upbringing? How many of them will have them while not owning their own house?
Add to that childfree people, people that simply won't find a partner, queer relationships that won't produce children, infertile people or people that only found partner later in life, and I struggle to see how any society that gives people the option to do whatever they want with their lives can have fertility rate higher than, idk, 1.8.
This has nothing to do with biology, this is only what rational people do given rational options.
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
Overpopulation is the root cause of our issues. Only BAU advocates desire more breeding.
LouDneiv@reddit
You're mistaken. I think try to find how much the 1% wealthiest pollute. Then the 10% wealthiest. Then reconsider your initial assertion
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
It would help if you were aware of how the system operates. It is a well known ecological trait.
LouDneiv@reddit
So you say the engine fueling consumerism and high technology is mass population? Please demonstrate how. I thought unbridled mining, drilling, and deforestation were driven by the insatiable greed of capital owners.
Without coal, oil, and gas, the entire edifice of modern civilization collapses. What happens if you take these fossil fuels out of the world? Wouldn't it be more or less what humanity experienced until roughly the 1750s? Jancovici frames this precisely with the concept of energy slaves: each inhabitant of a developed country effectively commands hundreds of fossil-fueled “slaves” working 24/7 to sustain their lifestyle. Their ecological footprint would mecanically be divided by massive factors without these slaves.
The top 1% emit more than entire continents. The top 10% drive the majority of emissions. Our economy concentrates wealth and reallocates ecological costs to the commons. The I=PAT formula must be nuanced: - Affluence (A) scales exponentially with emissions. A billionaire’s footprint is millions of times greater due to private jets, yachts, speculative investments, and luxury consumption. - Technology (T) is deeply fossil-dependent. Every data center, supply chain, and “green” innovation is embedded in a web of diesel, kerosene, and rare earth extraction.
The real issue is who controls the energy, the capital, and the narrative.
JackBlackBowserSlaps@reddit
Jesus Christ. Get out of the basement and try talking to an actual woman for once 🙄
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Thank you for your reply and the suggestion. If there is anything else you would like to discuss, let us know!
Wollff@reddit
Yes? It's biological? So how do we know it's biological, and not merely cultural conditioning?
Do men not want to "marry up" when the opportunity presents itself? You don't want a hot millionaire girlfriend, turned wife? No? Are you stupid?
When that happens (because it definitely happens sometimes), is that biological? Why not? What's the difference?
Just asking: Do you know about contraception? Because... you know... when you reduce the discussion to "biological hypergamy in women" (if that is even a thing), "religion", and "education", I get the feeling that you are not addressing the elephant in the room. And there are two elephants: Sex ed and contraception (by extension we can include abortion here).
When women get pregnant, very often, especially in developing countries, their independence goes away forever. When women have the power to not get pregnant, and have a choice in the matter, quite a few of them will... well, choose.
With those two factors family planning becomes a far easier possibility. Not everyone wants to get married young. Not everyone wants children. And the people who want children might be content with one or two. Contraception and sex ed open up the option for those choices, when before they pretty often were just not there at all.
A lot of people take them because, let's face it, pregnancies are hard. And rearing children, when you want to do a good job of it, is hard as well.
Excuse me? What issue?
Falling birth rates are great! The fewer people, the fewer problems. The hard question is not: "How do we pump out more people again?!", but rather how one can reform current systems so that they run well with a generally shrinking population.
Yes? And where do you know that from? What is you standard for what is "natural" in humans? Abandoned tribes in the Amazon? They all live in harem like societies?
No? Oh. Sorry. Maybe you have other sources for your definition of what is "natural" and "biological"?
It's true that we might go extinct, but definitely not because of any of the things you mention.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
The narrative of fewer people is better is why we are under the replacement rate. This might seem all fine and dandy now, but let's say we get to a point where it's 1 birth per women(South Korea is 0.75 births per women) far far under the 2.1 replacement rate.
What do you think is going to happen 30-40 years from now when that working class retires? If you invert the pyramid and have a 20% working class supporting a 80% retiree's instead of the other way around, how is that going to turn out? That's an absolute disaster, and it's what south korea and many places in the world are very much headed towards.
ZealousidealEnd6660@reddit
Ok. I've developed a way for men to conceive and bear children. All you need to do is relax while we knock you up, live with the threat of death, permanent changes to your body, and illness for 9 months. Also all your medical care comes out of your pocket. Also you keeping a job isn't promised. Also we who got you pregnant may not be supportive, or understanding, or safe, or stay in the picture.
After 9 months of your organs rearranging themselves, morning sickness, and other horrors, you get to shit out a watermelon sized baby over the course of a day, who you are now solely responsible for keepijg alive and raising in a healthy way, in a world that is increasingly toxic and terrible, for at least the next 2 decades.
You volunteering? Don't fret. You'll apparently have the option of being kept as a sex slave in a human zoo if you consent.
That's the offer you're making.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Thank you for your response, do you happen to have a quote on hand mentioning this? "you volunteering? Don't fret. You'll apparently have the option of being kept as a sex slave in a human zoo if you consent."
Wollff@reddit
No, not really. That narrative has nothing to do with it at all.
When you give people the choice of having children or not, and how many children to have, they are going to choose fewer children over lots of children a lot of the time.
There are many reasons for this. "We will only have one child, because fewer children are better for the world!", is probably not even in the top 20.
You don't have to wait that long to reach the peak of the situation you describe. The biggest drop in the population curve we have in Western countries is the end of the generation of the baby boomers. They are retiring now. That is the most severe bump in demographics we have. All the rest that follows is comparatively harmless.
Japan is the main example for a country that was ahead of the curve, and is already starting to overcome that bump. European countries like Germany are just about to enter the most severe disparity in demographics they will face in the forseeable future right about now.
So: If things continue in a more or less stable manner, in 30 to 40 years the situation will be a lot more relaxed than it is now, because the drop between baby boomers (now retired or entering retirement), and the generations after, is the most severe demographic bump we will ever experience.
Okay. Show me the pyramid which will lead to this distribution in the future, then we can talk.
Otherwise: This is not going to happen like that, ever, anywhere. Well, maybe in Russia and Ukraine, where they are currently killing off a whole generation of fighting age men, but otherwise?
Probably nonsense. You don't think so? Show me a population pyramid that leads to this outcome, then we can talk.
Eve_O@reddit
The number of humans who live on this planet has exploded as a result of technological advances made in the last two hundred years--mostly the last one hundred. It took us until the 1800s to reach one billion and then about a hundred and twenty-five years to double that. Since roughly 1930 we've quadrupled the population of the planet.
The bottom line is we had no business growing this much to begin with, so the narrative about "replacement rate" is flawed from the beginning: we should not be aiming to "replace" an already bloated population--especially since the very technologies that have enabled it have also reshaped the biosphere for the worse. Our longer lives and increasing numbers have directly contributed to the destruction of the natural world.
So if you want to talk about what is "natural," then let's talk about how since the 1970s there has been an average reduction of close to 70% of the world's wildlife. And why is that? It's not difficult to figure out: it's because of the tumorous growth of the human species with regards to our modern lifestyles and the technologies we employ to live those lifestyles. Let's talk about the "replacement rate" of the decimation of wildlife and their habitat loss instead of focusing on trying to maintain what is clearly a population of humans that are accelerating earth overshoot year after year.
This is not to say that the whole aging population isn't a problem, but the solution is not to make more humans. That's short-sighted thinking that mirrors the absence of responsible foresight that got us here in the first place.
Big-Engineering266@reddit
I don’t see this is a problem leading to collapse. The hedge fund managers and property investors will have a couple of wives, mistresses and concubines. The police and military enforcers who protect the hedge fund managers and property investors will also have access to women and all the rest of the men have zero. For the women the elites will have first wife status, lower than that will get to be mistresses and at the bottom will get by on prostitution. And it’s already well on the way to this type of arrangement
arkH3@reddit
As in... it's not leading to collapse as long as fertile women are happy to go along with the arrangement you describe or are deprived of their autonomy? That"s what the comment sounds like. Correct me if I am misreading it, please.
Also, 1 man having children with multiple women would not increase the overall birth rate if each of the women still have 1-2 children in their lifetime and if they otherwise would end up having the children with someone who doesn't bave multiple relationships. (Which is relevant if we assume the women have autonomy over how many children they have, which I hope they always will).
In fact that is already part of the current statistic - many men remarry and have 1-2 children with more than 1 women over their lifetimes.
mynameakevin@reddit (OP)
Uh, that is a little extreme.
No, this is about the natural biological urge for women wanting to marry up, and there is nothing wrong with this.
I am saying that instead of going against the flow, we do something to help it along and embrace the trend.
Unfair-Sleep-3086@reddit
The problem isn’t education, it’s the financial burden of having children that is causing the decreasing birth rate. You see the same mechanics in animals where access to food and suitable living conditions controls birth rates. The current financial landscape discourages people from creating families. Only the religious, wealthy and ironically the irresponsible can have children now. There isn’t a financial incentive for millennials and younger to have children and so they won’t unless they can afford it. I’m 40 now and only now am I in a position where I can financially create a child.
arkH3@reddit
I agree with all of this AND would add that affluent people including where women don't work / ate home makers don't necessarily choose to have more than 1-2 children. (Examples around me, I don't know the statistics). They can afford not only having a child but multiple children, and still choose not to have more than 1-2. So a bunch of additional reasons for choices imcopatible with hitting maintenance level birth rates likely exist.
(I listed some in my root comment, ironically omitting both the financial constraints on having children at all, and the planetary emergency considerations, which shows I stopped considering having children a while back).
demon_dopesmokr@reddit
Exactly. Birth rates fluctuate based on resource availability. It's only because we've been living with abundant resources for so long that we think that ever-increasing population is the norm.
There are other important limits as well though, such as the effect of over-pollution on fertility.
IllustriousClock767@reddit
Are you ignoring the fact that we don’t want to bring children into the burning hellscape that is the world.
arkH3@reddit
Such an important point. Thank you. I wrote my list of plausible reasons based on what I knew on this topic long time ago. This should have been top on the list for at least the generations who might be in child-bearing age now or in the future.
BarleySmirk@reddit
Absolutely
It-s_Not_Important@reddit
This is absurdly reductive.
demon_dopesmokr@reddit
Infertility is on the rise in for a multitude of reasons. Overpollution is lowering fertility due to the physiological effects of contaminents in the air, water, food. But also as living standards collapse and the cost of living skyrockets many people simply cannot afford the financial burden of having children. Resource scarcity has historically played a big role in fluctuating birth rates.
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