What happens when the world hits 2°C of warming?
Posted by Monsur_Ausuhnom@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 128 comments
Posted by Monsur_Ausuhnom@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 128 comments
guidospeedmeister@reddit
We'll hit 3°c faster than anyone realizes...
kingtacticool@reddit
3C is officially Mad Max type shit. Not extinction level, but civilization ending. Billions dead.
rothbardridge@reddit
kingtacticool@reddit
I've bene part of this sub forever and its the wildest thing ever to see my own jaded doomerism of back then (which i was called an alarmist a thousand times over) get eclipsed by actual reality.
I've had conversations with Fish himself (the og "cannibals by Tuesday, Venus by Friday" dude) and the wildly pessimistic projections we had back then were UNDERESTIMATIONS
I wish y'all good fortune in the wars to come. Y'all gunna need it.
Ghostwoods@reddit
Naw, I ain't gonna need no good luck.
Imma gonna just die.
kingtacticool@reddit
Samesies
Part of the reason I never had kids.
Ghostwoods@reddit
Yup. Right there with you.
rothbardridge@reddit
It’s VERY wild. I remember listening to the first Ashes Ashes podcast episode back when and it helped me get through all Stages of grieving. I feel very calm and accepting of where we will go.
I ride motorcycles now, fast. There’s really no down side anymore. Love for today ladies and gentlemen. Tomorrow isn’t promised.
kingtacticool@reddit
From this point on every year is going to be worse than the one tha came before.
Live life. Enjoy it while you can.
g00fyg00ber741@reddit
I’m still mad at the It Gets Better campaign for lying to me, lol. It didn’t even get better in terms of being queer, it got worse again.
SimpleAsEndOf@reddit
There is only one answer:
Denial => Laughter => Acceptance
Still-Title9380@reddit
As soon as I learned about ocean acidification dissolving the calcium carbonate that zooplankton use I knew we were beyond fucked.
muddaFUDa@reddit
For me it was grokking the 20 year lag between emissions and effects. When every year for the past twenty has been new record emissions.
H0WWOULDlKNOW@reddit
If we have major current changes (like AMOC collapse) or I guess even if we don't, does this risk apply relatively uniformly across the oceans? Like are there areas where we would expect lower acidification?
reubenmitchell@reddit
Yep, dead oceans = no oxygen = everything dies
altgrave@reddit
where are you gonna be, pray?
kingtacticool@reddit
In 2050? Hopefully dead
altgrave@reddit
well, good luck, if you don't mind me saying so. i probably won't make it, either, but i'm not sure it'll take that long.
kingtacticool@reddit
Me neither. Theres a reason why I never had kids.
altgrave@reddit
ditto
Disastrous_North_102@reddit
So. I'll be 65 in 2050, luckily I won't have to worry about my disappearing pension.
guidospeedmeister@reddit
My guess is it is better to move to areas 1000m above sea level. There should still be arable/green land at that altitude.
kingtacticool@reddit
Its not the altitude that is the problem but the latitude.
The equator is going to get pretty inhospitable.
guidospeedmeister@reddit
Yes. I should have qualified that - if you're already living in the temperate zone....
Tropical/equatorial regions will be badly hit.
kingtacticool@reddit
Pretty sure I read somewhere that at 3C most of the middle east and northern Africa becomes uninhabitable because the daily high summer temps would be lethal.
Worldly_Bit1416@reddit
I do often wonder what Dubai, UAE and other wealthy gulf states/cities will do to cope.
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
There is nothing they can do. They are doomed.
EdibleScissors@reddit
I imagine the rich people will move and wherever they move, they will make that area unaffordable to the less rich residents. I don’t think living in a “climate haven” will necessarily do much good if you aren’t extremely rich or if your community isn’t extremely close knit.
kingtacticool@reddit
What many people fail to realize is the sheer danger that hundreds of millions of climate refugees will be. Overwhelming whatever countries they flee too, exasperating collapse.
Its going to be a slow burn until, one day, it isnt.
Ching-Dai@reddit
So much truth.
I have no doubts that those in power (both politically and financially) have had potentially as much focus on future mass migration as they have on all the overall economic impacts of what’s coming.
Sadly, the current US administration is now leading the way on how to prepare for that, by demonizing and deporting as many immigrants as possible, and creating excuses for future militarization on US soil.
kingtacticool@reddit
Yeah, I always knew fascism would rise during Collapse. Their entire shtick is "only i can solve this" especially when its an unsolvable problem. I knew america had gotten soft over the years but i didn't expect us to jump so eagerly into that pool and even before shit got real as far as refugees.
If this is how they act when we have 50-100k people at thw border a month, imagine that's going to happen when that number rises to a million or more every month. Central America is going to become uninhabitable. People are either going to go north or go south and there ain't shit south for them.
The horrors that we will inflict upon each other are going to be much much worse than anything the weather can conjure
Cattywampus2020@reddit
There will be areas that are good, just like there are areas now that are good where you might not expect them to be. Northern Europe is warm for its lattitude due to ocean currents. The problem is we aren’t really sure what is going to change with currents and weather patterns and when that will reach a new stable pattern.
trickortreat89@reddit
Exactly. Only thing that is certain is the uncertainty. But some places will hopefully be less unpredictable than others. For an example flat lands or slightly hilly away from the floods
kingtacticool@reddit
And by the time we do figure that out a lot of damage is going to happen.
The amount of arable land is going to shrink for a long time before it grows again. Permafrost takes a long long time to change into something you can plant and harvest crops with. UN is projecting 20-40% loss of global agricultural power by 2040s.
drakekengda@reddit
Can't we make it arable? Dump soil or excrements on it or something?
PigeonParkPutter@reddit
It's peat. Also: it will be on fire. Because it's all combinable organic material. It has been wet/and or frozen up until now.
So you can kind of grow some things, but again, on fire.
hairy_ass_truman@reddit
When life hands you peat, distill some scotch.
kingtacticool@reddit
Idk. From what I recollect it is far too swampy once it melts among other factors. I just know you cant just start planting crops on it right away.
drakekengda@reddit
Swampy is fine, you just cut it up with canals and ditches to drain it, Flanders and Netherlands have been doing that for centuries
kingtacticool@reddit
We're not going to have the time. The UN is projecting 30-40% collapse in some global crops by the 2040s.
drakekengda@reddit
Yeah, it's going to be tough. Besides reducing carbon emissions, more work should be put into managing the effects of climate change. Helping plants migrate according to where they'll grow best, improving soils,... But yeah, will probably not be done on a bigger scale until crisis hits
TuneGlum7903@reddit
Altitude is Latitude.
Except for the 14,000ft elevation the Tibetan Plateau is going to become very hospitable in the coming years.
Termin8tor@reddit
I saw you mentioned that a few days/weeks ago in a comment reply to something I said. I was meaning to ask what lead you to that conclusion? Is your thinking the elevation combined with available arable land and potable water?
TuneGlum7903@reddit
Basically yes. Global Warming is going to thaw the permafrost and bring rains. Warmer temperatures and more water will enable the land to bloom.
This is a area 4X the size of Texas.
People talk about moving to Greenland or Antarctica to escape the Climate Apocalypse that has started. Those are seen as the "lifeboat" locations where surviving populations might survive.
The Tibetan Plateau is far superior. It will probably be capable of supporting a country/nation.
AwayMix7947@reddit
Gotta disagree on this one. The Tibetan ecosystem is incredibly fragile, with very poor soil and very limited biodiversity. We cannot merely look at temprature....there are lots more factors to consider when it comes to support apex predetors like humans....
_rihter@reddit
No place is safe during nuclear war, including Tibet.
reubenmitchell@reddit
I guess this is why China wants it. Apocalypse retreat.
kingtacticool@reddit
Wut?
TuneGlum7903@reddit
High altitudes will be climate refugaria. They remain cooler and mimic higher latitude climates.
The Tibetan Plateau is currently known as the "Third Pole". With Global Warming it, like Greenland and the Antarctic, is going to thaw. In a +3°C world, changing rainfall patterns and rapid warming could make it very hospitable.
naniyotaka@reddit
8 billion people will want to move there. Good luck!
trickortreat89@reddit
Being in high mountains poses a lot of other risks… flooding, unpredictable storms, hails the size of golfballs out of nowhere, tornadoes, land slides, blizzards, etc
gmuslera@reddit
Never cross a river that is in average 4 feet deep, the average climate prediction won’t say what extreme weather may turn safe locations into inhabitable ones. And if we think that we saw so far as extreme weather was bad, wait a few decades.
What made possible agriculture was stable, predictable enough weather. Now we have short term floods and long term droughts in unexpected places. And things will get weirder.
filmguy36@reddit
Well we have reached the first break point, the coral reefs have now reached the point of no return. There will be some still around in some shape or form but certainly not in the abundance they once were. This will have the effect decreased if diminishing returns on oceanic food stocks. At least 1/3 of the worlds population depends on the ocean for food
2c, which will hit as the new normal sometime between 2030-2032. And during the run up to that, we will see the ice shelf holding back the thwaites and pine glaciers, aka the doomsday glaciers, collapse. Once the ice shelves have been removed, the glaciers are free to slide into the ocean. With in the first 5 years oceans will rise up to 1 meter globally, but when they really start moving, as the temperature rises and the albedo decreases, we will see an exponential jump in see rise to between 9 and 15 meters globally. The high end will be sometime by the end of the century. But remember, that’s just these two glaciers, there are many more that will go as well. I haven’t even added in the ocean rise from the Greenland glaciers.
By 2050, if things continue the way they are, we will easily hit 3c by then. At which point wet bulb temps will be so bad, whole areas of the earth will be uninhabitable. Desert regions, globally, will be impossible to support human life as well as many of the current indigenous animals.
Wess877@reddit
What level of warming are we currently at? 1C? So we can compare what 2C looks like!
DogFennel2025@reddit
I think we’re at 1.5C. But we can’t just double the effects - the systems are too complex.
jermster@reddit
2°C by 2050?!?! Gimme a break. We’re going to hit that in ten years or less.
rothbardridge@reddit
5 years at most IMO
ericvulgaris@reddit
Assuming the decadal heating rate of .36 (per hansen's work) it's a simple linear equation. We're projected to be about 13 years away from 2 assuming a 1.5 start.
If we actually start at 1.6 then it's more like 11 years away.
5 years is nonsensical.
specialsymbol@reddit
How can anyone assume it's going to be linear??
It absolutely can't be. CO2 isn't consumed while it's heating the atmosphere. It's accelerating.
tropical58@reddit
This gails to take into account that CO2 output is still growing, ice cover in the arctic is still shrinking, and methane rising frombthe oceanvand permafrost is increading rapidly. If we have not pasded 2C rise it is less than 24 months away.
switchsk8r@reddit
will it be linear? or is this like an average where heating is actually .2, then .25 , .28, .3 etc etc
rothbardridge@reddit
Too conservative.
ericvulgaris@reddit
Back it up with data.
rothbardridge@reddit
Don’t trust the data. We don’t have the models for sweeping domino effects.
RottenFarthole@reddit
We have already hit 2⁰ so it will not be long before that's the new normal
AntiBoATX@reddit
Source?? We still aren’t officially at 1.5c even though we’ve recorded it for an entire year, due to the rolling 10 year timeframe
Hour-Stable2050@reddit
Actually it’s a 20 year average isn’t it? Even 10 year average is too much. When every single year is expected to be 1.5 or above from now on how can you say we aren’t at 1.5 because we aren’t at a ten or twenty year past average of 1.5. We need to start taking the 10 year average of all EXPECTED temps over the next 10 years! That would be a lot more accurate and relevant and would put us at about 1.8 now.
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
When conditions/event are ever rising, averages mean nothing.
Crops and heat stroke don't care about averages.
Taokan@reddit
Ok, but also counter point - a single year or data point doesn't automatically indicate a new normal, either, just because things are trending up. We've had a couple recent hurricane season forecasts severely overestimate how because ocean temps and average temps were up we were in for a bunch of record breaking hurricanes, and .. nada.
Don't get me wrong. I see the damage coming as inevitable, but also, don't start making plans that assume the world will be gone in 5 years.
Ghostwoods@reddit
Don't worry, it'll be "1.5C over a 30-year rolling average" soon.
notam00se@reddit
Rolling 10 year timeframe was pushed when we hit 1.5 so that we didn't have to say we hit 1.5c
Just like the definition of Recession isn't defined by the US government, so that when we hit a recession, we can say it's not a recession unless it lasts ~~1 2 quarters 5~~ 10 years
thomas533@reddit
No, it was always a 10 year timeframe, you were just unaware that is what the scientists were discussing.
b4k4ni@reddit
Didn't we have 1.5c for the past 2 years at least? No source at hand, but they reported it like every month for the past 2 years. And are still going I guess.
emerioAarke@reddit
We hit 2c for a few days in September and November 2023 if I remember correctly. That's maybe what they meant.
jermster@reddit
Strong (almost very strong) El Niño year.
LordTuranian@reddit
THIS.
RicardoHonesto@reddit
I was banned by the mod of r/climatechange for daring to suggest that a theoretical +10c by 2100 would devastate humanity.
I was told people live in Nigeria, and it's hot there.
He was adamant that we can adapt to a +10c global average. That is where we are.
MeateatersRLosers@reddit
The moderator team there were climate deniers iirc. Very anti-vegan too when that is our best solution to slow it all down…
RicardoHonesto@reddit
It was strange. He was adamant that we can adapt to anything the planet throws at us.
MeateatersRLosers@reddit
Yeah, they even suggested once we live underground like they do in some gown in Australia, to escape the heat. And it’s like, great, but what is my personal comfort good for when the crops we depend on die?
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
3C is pretty much the end of civilization as we know it.
Nothing is going survive 10C.
RicardoHonesto@reddit
Not according to the mods over there. They live in a fantasy land where conclusions made from scientific studies are not allowed.
TheRealKison@reddit
Are those the “once we stop emissions, the warming stops” folks?
Alienself789@reddit
Was it 5840 guy? I was banned there too. Bunch of hopium addicted techno optimists. I wrote extremely apparent changes etcetera. We should start our own reddit, maybe call it r/climatechangetruth or realistic.
RicardoHonesto@reddit
It was EconomyFee I think his username is. Right little Hitler.
Alienself789@reddit
So it was Economy-Fee5840. He posts over here too.
itsintrastellardude@reddit
data centers go brr humanity saved climate defeated huzzah
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
And tech douche bros break their own arms patting themselves on their backs.
DoomTiaraMagic@reddit
So what happens when you lose 30% of worldwide crops?
asdfzzz2@reddit
Meat would get expensive. Half of the agriculture outputs go to animals.
DoomTiaraMagic@reddit
It's 100% if you count us
asdfzzz2@reddit
Technically yes, but my point is that we grow 2-3 times more food than we need to feed humans.
If crops fail, then first meat would get expensive and then disappear, then food would get low quality (that currently gets thrown away because it is ugly/low protein/started to spoil/etc), and only then you would get mass hunger.
Losing 30% of the crops would be bad, but not society collapse bad.
trickortreat89@reddit
Someone will be hungry
hairy_ass_truman@reddit
Wars of the remaining 70%
No_Nick89@reddit
Penile ejaculation is my guess
Perfect-Concern-9762@reddit
We are already over 2c
kingfofthepoors@reddit
There will be some sudden shift, not big climatic anything. It will just keep getting worse and worse and worse until one day you just don't wake up.
trickortreat89@reddit
Or you do wake up to something that seems so chaotic and unlivable you just die
The_Sex_Pistils@reddit
"We gives you three guesseses, my preciouss”
taddymason_01@reddit
When this baby hits 2°C, you’re going to see some serious shit.
pseudohim@reddit
That's heavy, taddymason_01.
Mostest_Importantest@reddit
What the hell is a jigawatt?
Twisted_Cabbage@reddit
That comment was both dismal and hilarious at the same time.
We will indeed see some serious shit.
Sapient_Cephalopod@reddit
From my understanding 2 C means entering completely uncharted territory in terms of emerging biophysical limits on human activity. We'll be starting to see completely unprecedented, near-unsolvable crises at a global level from migration flows, deadly heat, ocean ecosystem collapse, crop failure and insurance collapse begin to play out at a significant level
arkH3@reddit
We ought to be asking "what else will be going on when the world hits 2'C of warming". Climate change is one of the ecological and societal mega threats, but not the only one. Looking at climate in isolation we keep losing track of other fairly imminent threats like ocean ecosystem collapse. I am really [tired with] the climate tunnel vision. (I haven't read the linked article, am commenting based on the title and the general tendency out there).
bottom_armadillo805@reddit
Is there something specific to ocean ecosystem collapse that isn't climate change-driven? Not that I'm trying to add another thing for me to worry about lol, I just thought that all of it tied back to CO2 in the atmosphere, I've kind of lumped it all together.
The article does include ocean de-oxygenation, collapse of deep water currents, and collapse of coral reefs. It mentions that all of this would "undercut the foundation of the marine food web", but never explicitly follows up with "leading to collapse of the ocean ecosystem that humans rely on"
arkH3@reddit
Yes - among the causes. Pollution, which is accelerating ocean ecosystem collapse, is not caused by climate change. It's a separate factor. (The sources being untreated waste water entering oceans, plastic pollution entering ocean, pollution from maritime transport, ...).
GauchiAss@reddit
I don't know what I know for sure is that we'll all find out what happens faster than expected and it will probably be worse than predicted
Monsur_Ausuhnom@reddit (OP)
Submission Statement,
Related to collapse because this is bad news for everyone...though I don't think it will simply stop at 2C warming. In a way, this can be expected to get worse with the overall losses coming from climate change and summarizes it nicely. The human attention span also continues to get shorte
ansibleloop@reddit
We've already locked in enough warming for 3C
That'll cause enough tipping points to warm for the next 1000 years
BloodWorried7446@reddit
1) oppressive heat in already parched regions. 2) food shortages 3) water shortages But the Dow and S&P are up and there’s a new Iphone coming out.
j592dk_91_c3w-h_d_r@reddit
Or the new Marvel. I heard it was crazy.
kingtacticool@reddit
Adding to this.
2C is a death sentence for every non polar glacier. They're all doomed.
BOE with certainty.
MASSIVE crop losses, will have to plant new crops on land weve used for foodstuffs for hundreds of years.
None of this will happen overnight, but all of it will happen.
2C is officially the beginning of the "find out" stage. I hope y'all enjoyed the nice weather while it lasted.
And the scale of the suffering is exponential not logarithmic.
nw342@reddit
Droughts, famine, civil unrest, mass death
Corpomancer@reddit
Increased profit margins on the disaster capitalism route.
Burtocu@reddit
We're gonna make tiktoks like we always do
hypermodernism@reddit
2.1°C
tawhuac@reddit
The same as when the temperature rises from 8am to 1pm. Just a milestone.
collapse-ModTeam@reddit
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Specific_Guava_6818@reddit
…how is this increase mrasured? 🤔 One out of many, not in mainstream. https://youtu.be/ttNg1F7T0Y0?si=YdLQ_JUoc2xSe95W Not saying it is not getting warmer, just veryfying different sources.
collapse-ModTeam@reddit
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NyriasNeo@reddit
We will find out soon. We already hit 1.5C and blew through 2C briefly.
SeveralDrunkRaccoons@reddit
Business as usual.
AvsFan08@reddit
You'll find out in about 3 years
AggravatingMark1367@reddit
What happens is that we keep making it worse
verstohlen@reddit
Those who survive will adapt...to a new world. And grow gills behind their ears. Jack Black will become a pilot.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Monsur_Ausuhnom:
Submission Statement,
Related to collapse because this is bad news for everyone...though I don't think it will simply stop at 2C warming. In a way, this can be expected to get worse with the overall losses coming from climate change and summarizes it nicely. The human attention span also continues to get shorte
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1o8pgj2/what_happens_when_the_world_hits_2c_of_warming/njwlx1w/
PlanteryYellow5657@reddit
Stock prices for A/Cs will go up and stakeholders will make bank! Again.