Financial and economic difficulties getting critical
Posted by NotDinahShore@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 134 comments
[removed]
Posted by NotDinahShore@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 134 comments
[removed]
CriticalProtection42@reddit
Something like 40% of the GDP growth this year has been the result of AI companies and their related services and hardware.
If (or when) that bubble pops it will be bad. VERY bad. Maybe not apocalyptic if it's a soft pop and not like a dotcom crash, but it won't be good.
Biotic101@reddit
Well, datacenter infrastructure ages super fast.
I had the chance to talk to an AI expert and he told me what is needed for the boom to continue is something new because LLM Implementation is slowing down.
He thinks before fully autonomous becomes a thing there might be intermediate attempts with remote work. Kind of what we saw with the Tesla robots.
IMHO timing is always critical and the anging of DC infrastructure might be faster than autonomous robots and improved LLMs and AI getting to the next level.
TLDR the Broligarchy is in a race towards AGI to screw us all over and investors pay the price.
Once they can replace us useful idiots, their Dark Enlightenment plan will be realized and all (no longer) useful idiots erased like the current cuts erasing those already who they deem as dead weight.
shesaysImdone@reddit
Intermediate attempts to do what?
Historical_Course587@reddit
They are already doing it in Asia - paying someone to sit at home on a computer and "drive" a robot while AI learns from the human-input driving data to learn how to do it themselves. Like this:
Fun fact: Tesla has been trying to get approved to bring "full self driving" cars to the US by leveraging remote drivers in India. Essentially step 1.
Donald_McRonald420@reddit
Hey Elon is a smart guy, India is world famous for it's quality of driving skills
ThrowAwayGarbage82@reddit
This made me snort-laugh. You should dive deeper into their AGI fantasies. They literally think they can create sentient AI. Because sure, humans can totally create consciousness in a machine. That's for sure how things work. And if they did do so, that totally wouldn't go horribly wrong nearly immediately because the robots would discover humans are greedy, violent, stupid and self destructive.
Lol. The techbro fantasies make scientology seem perfectly reasonable.
Biotic101@reddit
Unfortunately they have the money to push for whatever they want. They also invest billions into anti aging and augmentation research. Combined with Dark Enlightenment, it looks they want to be superhumans with absolute power.
And looking at the likely deaths from all the recent cuts and policies, they will also erase anyone who they see as no longer useful to them. Which will eventually be all of us including police and military. Because any human with power is a threat to their absolute power. Can't have that.
Historical_Course587@reddit
IMO tech moguls went all-in on supporting Trump because the industry won't survive the AI bubble. It's already reeling due to the over-expansion during Covid, and pretty much been in decline ever since. Hardware is stagnant. Software is increasingly enshittified, and stagnant. Prices are climbing. The industry will need to be propped up against this or most of these big companies will take the industry with them.
The upside is that machine learning remains a fantastic final frontier for computing. And even LLMs will likely evolve into something that makes sense as a tool, seeing as how their best improvements over the last year or so have nothing to do with content and everything to do with computational efficiency. We're at a point where they can be run on consumer hardware, and while it can't be monetized like they would hope it still represents some solid opportunities for a sustained market in software.
We won't know until the venture capital flees though. Once the calendar resets and LLMs need to be profitable on day 1, then we will see whether "AI" is actually useful.
fragrant-final-973@reddit
Regular data center infrastructure ages super fast.
AI data center infrastructure ages insanely fast. Recently heard that after 2 years the power to keep the old gear running outweighs the cost of lifecycling it.
Equivalent-Buyer-841@reddit
So who’s going to loan these companies the money to replace everything given the non-profitability of the sector
fragrant-final-973@reddit
Did you watch the video? Ouroboros all the way down.
carlitospig@reddit
We don’t even have quantum in a way that is remotely sustainable. So it’s all this hoopla for a fancy search tool that can reformat your CV.
adrianipopescu@reddit
that mostly gets it wrong despite how much you try to prompt it beforehand to set boundaries
in any case, llms will never be ai, that requires a fundamental shift in approach and that shift so far doesn’t look like it’s happening
carlitospig@reddit
Amen.
grahamfiend2@reddit
A man tells another person that if they eat dog poop, they’ll give them $100. He does.
Then the man that ate dog poop tells a third man that he’ll give him $100 to also eat dog poop.
He does.
GDP up $200.
sneakybrat82@reddit
GDP = Global Dog Poop?
EternalNewCarSmell@reddit
Whoever gets lucky with their puts by getting the right-ish date on that pop, even if it's a soft pop, is going to make a lot of money.
That said, absent insider information it's basically just gambling with extra steps so I will not be trying my hand at that one. I really do think it's a when not an if, but I'll never know when until after it's happened.
Flimsy-Memberships@reddit
CriticalProtection42@reddit
Whoa, it's even worse than I remembered.
Flimsy-Memberships@reddit
Oh yeah, we are being set up for a catastrophic cascade failure.
Bigtimeknitter@reddit
It was like if AI spend weren't there our GDP would be negative I think is the stat I heard
Cautious_Put9964@reddit
if that's true then I really don't see any way this could end well. Perhaps that's the intention
Bigtimeknitter@reddit
i think the hope is rate cuts will stimulate the rest of the economy which has been acting more recessionary
XxBlackicecubexX@reddit
How do you invest in this economic climate as a company? Where do you branch out that isn't potentially on a government chopping block or tariff trap hole. Recrssionary is the only call for most
Bigtimeknitter@reddit
catering towards the top decile (households with incomes over $250K) because they've actually racheted up their spending, likely due to stock valuations continuing to increase which is benefitting them. However as soon as that turns, ironically also linked to Ai, I don't understand how we could avoid a recession. that's very unusual, it's like the tail wagging the dog or a circular reference
AnnetteBishop@reddit
Personally, I appreciate your vibe since I work in finance and its my job to watch like a hawk for stuff like this with investment advisors.
Subprime auto loans do seem the obvious place to look -- larger total purchase prices, longer loans at higher interest rates, and normal car depreciation are a bad mix.
You have a long enough period of good times and paraphrase Warren, some folks will be swimming naked.
CourageThick2887@reddit
The recess on student loan payments is over - that may have some impact with the auto loan defaults.
improbablydrunknlw@reddit
So puts on subprime auto loan companies?
AnnetteBishop@reddit
Seeing this again in different context, the pain would mostly be with the bondholders at a well run company at first for the auto loans. BUT, many of them depend on the ability to issue auto asset backed securities to be a going concern so...ends up in a similar place but order of operations is important.
AnnetteBishop@reddit
Auto loans in general, but those borrowers would be more stressed.
Bigtimeknitter@reddit
Also the loan mods are going crazzzyyyy
AnnetteBishop@reddit
Oh the 'Liability Management Exercises' aka creditor on creditor violence? Yeah...
Bigtimeknitter@reddit
and PIKs bruh it's like they were all done like "Rates will be down by then" and then they simply barely moved
AnnetteBishop@reddit
Indeed, the PIKs are the problem that is being whistled past the graveyard right now.
CourageThick2887@reddit
If you don’t make $170k per year or have a net worth of $1 million you really don’t impact the economy.
Video isn’t perfect but it’s close.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T2OHjHPkUzM&t=4s&pp=ygUiV2h5IHlvdSBkb250IG1hdHRlciB0byB0aGUgZWNvbm9tdQ%3D%3D
Chucking100s@reddit
Fed Indedence is under critical threat.
By January, it appears that we are going to have an Erdogan style central banking crisis.
I expect inflation to shoot up into the double digits once it becomes clear that the federal reserve is going to cut rates beneath inflation.
Leaving trillions of debt that needs to be refinanced without adequate buyers. Forcing up yields, at a time when credit rating agencies and central banks globally are increasingly doubtful of the value of the dollar.
If we nuke interest rates beneath 3%, while inflation is at 3%, nobody will buy the bonds, forcing the rates up.
$13T of US debt is due for a refinance in the next 12 months.
We can't afford it already and certainly cannot afford to refinance it at nearly double the interest rate it's currently at.
Dalio calls it a debt death spiral.
The rally in gold is prepositioning for a world in which the dollar is in structural decline due to fiscal and monetary mismanagement.
Google the "Triffin Dilema"
We appear to be deliberately invoking it, starving the world of dollars, which are typically reinvested into our equity, bond, and real estate markets.
We need to run persistent deficits or the flow of dollars abroad ceases.
If the flow of dollars abroad ceases, then the flow of those dollars into US investments ceases.
ThrowAwayGarbage82@reddit
Yes, it's intentional. Did no one here read Project 2025? It's outrightly a goal to crash the economy and the dollar so they can roll out an entirely controllable CBDC to replace it. Their whole endgoal is total enslavement and to rule as CEO-Kings. They plan to basically balkanize the US and turn us into nation-state tech feifdoms. It's absolutely delusional. The reality will be the country weakening and falling into complete ruin as China becomes the next global superpower. Adversaries will absolutely take the opportunity to take over whatever viably remains of the country.
This isn't just some normal thing where we'll have a period of economic darkness and then slowly bounce back.
Y'all should take a look at what's happening in the trucking industry. Alarm bells aren't just ringing, they're swinging wildly back and forth and starting to crack and fail.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
Thank you. It's refreshing to read the thoughts of someone who "gets it".
SeaviewSam@reddit
Post up your short positions - Put your $ where your mouth is.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
My only position is the Vanguard Federal Money Market fund and a lot of CDs between 4.5% - 5%.
I passed the point where I need to generate trading/investment gains a long time ago, thankfully.
No-Serve-9134@reddit
Wait what???????????????????????? You are kidding right? This guy is obviously lying. That would mean in the past decade he has done nothing but lose money. Literally his money has been burning on fire. I am rich. Filthy rich. And no one in their right mind would say that if they had any wealth.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
Ok. Whatever you say. I never said I am filthy rich. I have a hobby business that generates a lot of income. I have enough money to last throughout my life and will leave a nice inheritance to my kids.
Do I wish I had more? Sure. Do I wish I had been invested through the mega bull market of the last decade? Obviously.
But I don’t need it. And not needing to think about it/stress about it is its own reward. Losing principal is more painful for me than losing out on potential gains. Whether you believe it or not.
Indian_Bob@reddit
So I’m in school for computer engineering and the use of llms is interesting. Essentially, the big breakthrough was in part due to open ai which basically just added more processing power to sort of brute force it to achieve more accurate results. The problem is that the accuracy of these llms is an exponential curve and in order to gain more accuracy, they need to add more and more processing power. This is why you see companies scrambling to add tons of data centers. There is another bottleneck though which is much harder to overcome. That bottle neck is information. LLMs need to be trained on information and humans have only collected so much. I don’t think we will see the jump to everyone losing their jobs due to ai until there is a true breakthrough, either with processing power or the llm model itself. Until then I would expect it is going to go like the dotcom bubble and at some point, something is going to break its back(like Japan having a recession causing the dotcom bubble) I’d bet all my savings it’s going to be the debt crisis you are talking about.
bristlybits@reddit
a lot of people slowing down their digital footprint in response to shit implementation of llms means less training data too.
it's going to be a total feedback loop soon.
ylimethrow@reddit
So what do we do to prep??
thereadingbri@reddit
Prioritize getting out of debt. The sooner the better. Fill out your pantry and bathroom cabinet. Start collecting physical media.
bristlybits@reddit
but the fixed interest on my debt means my paltry dollars will pay it faster, the value to them goes down.
i mean fixed interest stuff- or unsecured with fixed interest- no rush. variable interest i can see trying to get rid of.
MaximumValuable8082@reddit
Zero point and paying down your debt if there’s going to be an economic collapse
thereadingbri@reddit
No, debt is the hook on which many are hung in a recession/depression. Which is far more likely than complete economic collapse.
HeavyStep13@reddit
Can you elaborate on what you mean by this?
Historical_Course587@reddit
You have a bit of debt, and the market slumps. Not end of the world, just 2008 again. You lose your job. Debt is the difference between bouncing back by living on a friend's couch and having to file for bankruptcy and destroying your credit. And losing your car. Your ability to rent an apartment, which you need since you aren't about to buy a house.
It's the same reason an underwater mortgage is so hazardous. If something goes wrong, it goes REALLY wrong because instead of a controlled descent you end up in financial free-fall.
thereadingbri@reddit
If you’re in debt, particularly high interest debt, when a recession hits, you’re going to be hit harder than someone with low interested debt, less debt, or no debt. If you lose your job due to a recession and still have a car payment, your car can get repossessed. You make yourself far more vulnerable if you owe money to someone else and suddenly find yourself unable to pay or unable to pay the full monthly payment as many do in a recession. To some extent owing money is unavoidable, even someone with “no debt” still has things like rent, or property taxes, or annual vehicle registration to pay, but often these expenses are often easier to cover in dire financial straits than large monthly car payments, or credit card payments, or student loan payments. You’re going to have better odds of weathering the financial storm the less obligations you have to pay every month.
HeavyStep13@reddit
So if we assume some major economic depression occurs and people who owe, let’s say, credit card debt- wouldn’t they all just declare bankruptcy and then begin rebuilding their scores or what? I’m just curious what happens to the large swaths of individuals who can’t pay off their debts in times like those.
Equivalent-Buyer-841@reddit
Debt equals risk. More debt, more risk. Basically everyone who owes money right now for any reason are about to get screwed.
WordPhoenix@reddit
I am very concerned as well, from watching a lot of different programs.
I like this systems analyst on YT. These are her two videos from the last two weeks (October 2025):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l4NbWd21kM
https://youtu.be/pQ0zrQaYt3k?si=z4EJcW2ERov0LyWb
thereadingbri@reddit
I watched one of the Lincoln Project podcasts recently talking about this and basically the assessment by the guest (either an economist or an economic historian) said that unless congress gets very proactive very soon, we’re basically guaranteed an AI induced recession. Either the bubble pops and causes one sooner, or it does actually live up to expectations and shortly thereafter hollows out a ton of white collar jobs in a short period of time and causes a recession later. Basically the only way the guest saw to avoid an AI recession was to hope the bubble doesn’t pop and get universal healthcare and UBI established before all those white collar jobs evaporate, ideally funded in some way by the AI industry. Which we all know won’t happen because congress is reactive on a good day and effectively inactive most days.
working-mama-@reddit
Congress passing universal healthcare and UBI? Congress that caused government shut down over healthcare subsidies? That Congress?
TinyEmergencyCake@reddit
Vote in the midterms.
cjenkins14@reddit
Russian antivoter troll?
I'm in Texas and spent time in the marine corps. Spewing BS because you have no argument is a waste of both of our time.
working-mama-@reddit
LOL what?
TinyEmergencyCake@reddit
Brand new account with nothing on it came out of hibernation just to comment that? Yea ok buddy
cjenkins14@reddit
Thinking that voting changes anything is a pretty mad stance anymore
ostligelaonomaden@reddit
Well, that has to be tried HARD, before the alternatives is considered.
You don't kick your wife out the first (or the third time) she drinks. You do so after 2 rehab, 3 counseling, and she still choose to be a bad role model for your kids.
cjenkins14@reddit
Save a few I'm not aware of anyone thats been elected in the last 40 years that is a good role model for leading a country. Doing the same thing over again and expecting different results is insanity
TinyEmergencyCake@reddit
russian antivoter troll says what?
Gtfo of my replies with your anti American bs
Wise-Force-1119@reddit
Oregon has been taking steps to make this happen at a state level! On the plus side.
JinkoTheMan@reddit
I genuinely think that aliens would appear before we got Universal Healthcare.
Equivalent-Buyer-841@reddit
Aliens will appear and give us universal healthcare. No one is going to like where they put the sensors
Shrewta@reddit
I mean shit, Congress doesn't even exist right now
Reconsct@reddit
You are spot on. I have been trying to ring this bell for ages, but it seems it has fallen on deaf ears until more recently.
We are on track for a fill economic and societal collapse before spring. Mark my words.
I brought up in this very sub over the last weeks several things I have noticed pointing in these directions.
A BIG one I think everyone is also overlooking is the skyrocketing prices of Silver and Gold. Silver is almost $55 an Oz currently and still going, and Gold was over 3.3K an Oz last I looked at it a few days ago.
(I admit that I am tracking Gold far less than Silver as it is a personal priority)
Anyhow, so what do these skyrocketing prices mean for us practically? Well here is a comment made here last week regarding that:
“Think of it this way:
If you and I both went into a store you carrying a US &1 dollar paper bill, and I carrying a US &1 Silver Eagle; I could spend mine on exactly $1 worth of merchandise as it is legal tender, or sell it for $50 to a metal trader.
You on the other hand could buy exactly $1 worth of goods; or wipe your ass on the bill because it isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
We have reached the point where what was once meant to be “pocket change” is now LITERALLY worth more than it’s common paper equivalent by a factor of 50. That is insane.”
Since then the price has only risen, and a news story just today spoke of the “crimes of desperation “ that I have been saying are coming for months.
A head medic with a career worth of service was arrested in the State capitol today as they had stolen all medications from their ambulance service they worked for.
When questioned they clearly stated their sole purpose to do this was to sell them to make money for their family at home as they have a pregnant spouse and 4 other children.
They asserted this was the “only option” they had left and their last chance to keep a roof over their families heads and kids fed.
We are there folks. Buckle the fuck up.
Ornery-Sheepherder74@reddit
If you have been ringing the bell for ages, then maybe something is wrong with your bell … I can’t tell you how many times I have heard “it will be collapse by spring” and it never collapses. Yes, things are bad and people are suffering. That doesn’t mean we can predict future collapse.
FelineOphelia@reddit
Agree with you . Seen this same story multiple times over the years.
Dementia-addled President is a new addition though.
impermissibility@reddit
Uh, it's Trump in office now, not Biden anymore. The dementia guy left the building on fire same as he found it, and the mentally competent arsonist came back with dynamite.
FattierBrisket@reddit
I mean, we did have Reagan.
EastTyne1191@reddit
I hear you, but also consider that our social safety nets are being gutted. Maybe we don't have a collapse, but if we do, people will have fewer supports to fall back on.
4k5@reddit
Have you sold all your stocks?
DocDMD@reddit
I never understand this take. No one can predict the future perfectly. I think the rational response is to rebalance your portfolio to make you more risk tolerant and take the L if nothing happens.
Historical_Course587@reddit
It's not even taking an L - it's just a smaller W.
gard3nwitch@reddit
I agree that it looks like we're in danger of another credit-crisis recession.
I read an article this morning that talked about near record high car repossessions and a car loan lender going under recently, and another article that quoted Jamie Dimon saying something like... when you see one cockroach, know that there's a bunch more you don't see. And I've been thinking about that all day.
ddesideria89@reddit
I don’t think there will be a bubble pop until something really drastic happens (e.g. war or rebellion). The fed will just print more money. There are already talks about restarting QE, more aggressive rate drops. People will get poorer, rich will be more richer.
Creepy-Cantaloupe951@reddit
Printing more money often exacerbates the problem. Its why interest rates being waaay too low, for waaay too long is really bad.
Which kinda led us here.
ddesideria89@reddit
You always need to specify who do you mean, because there are quite a few beneficiaries to this. We are in a K-shaped economy: the inflation is a money pump that keeps extracting resources from wage slaves and put it into the pockets of rich people with assets. One day it will pop, but not before the system runs out of options to prop it up.. and if in the process few people starve - "that's the sacrifice they are willing to make".
johnnyringo1985@reddit
So, do you have any qualifications, or just old, lonely, and like to pontificate on the internet?
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
I had a second row seat for 2008. I have an MBA from a famous school in Boston. I was in the investment/mutual fund business in the 90s.
In the 2000s, I was MD for a boutique firm that had mostly very wealthy clients. Many of them were on CNBC daily or weekly at the time. Huge focus on real estate (the clients). I was told in real time what was going on in their firms and at the banks.
My point is that I was way ahead of most during the unfolding of that crash. I understood it.
No crash is the same obviously. But they share characteristics, like going from being hush hush insider info, to being whispers in the public domain, to the floodgates opening. I believe we are in the whispers stage.
I am old, definitely not lonely and immune from any crash at this point.
IrwinJFinster@reddit
You were, presumably, 24 years of age when the western financial system almost collapsed. Weren’t you paying attention then? And you knew that the re-inflation then was transitory? Hopefully, given the subreddit we’re on. Now if you’re asking her, a stranger on the internet, for investment advice: no one will be able to predict the timing of the deflationary and inflationary waves—most especially “retail” folks like us.
johnnyringo1985@reddit
Yeah, I was doing my JD or MBA around then. I just really liked the opener, and I’m paraphrasing here: “Sorry I was wrong last week, but CNN has given me more info, so here’s my new theory…”
The delinquencies mentioned haven’t spiked—they’ve been rising steadily over the past 18-24 months—and they aren’t at record highs. Housing prices are coming down in all but 2 regions in a slow, comfortable, and controlled way. Stock market seems crazy because we destroyed M2 during over the last 5 years, and we’ve finally reached the point where excess liquidity from the pandemic are gone. Meaning we are exited the Fed’s quantitative tightening period and entering something new—not necessarily a recession.
We know empirically that talking about recession can lead to a recession, but we aren’t guaranteed one. Nonetheless, partisan media seemingly wants a recession to “own Trump”. And everyone who comes to the internet to blithely offer the same two cents they were handed by network TV last night is only cheering on that possibility.
IrwinJFinster@reddit
h2power237@reddit
Massive AI bubble, China trade war, rare earth metal cut off, inflation, devaluation of dollar, soaring consumer debt, massive mortgage and car loan defaults, unraveling of real estate in the normal places and one week away from no SNAP benefits for 43 million. Potential black swan events: Russian aggression against nato, Taiwan vs China and NHI are actually real and your reality is fake. End result is stock market hits record highs.
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
There are other shortages incoming that are much more likely to lead to contagion.
Mostly because people do not know enough about how industries are comnected. So they take a signal 'shortage of x' to mean something it doesn't because they are not looking for the underlying cause.
So we get contafion, over a small thing, because people have already been placed in a fearful and precarious mindset from the mews, political environment, person job situation etc.
Logical_Hospital2769@reddit
We may all be eating crow soon. Literally.
HawaiianPunchaNazi@reddit
You meat eaters will be eating crow.
Us vegetarians will be in direct competition for the crows' food!
This might be the strangest alliance since reality TV came into fruition ;-)
martialgir@reddit
We can always eat soybeans. I know where we can get some.
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
I gotta learn how to make tofu now. Urgh. One. More. Thing. I will say i recently had the pleasure of a cooking instruction from a little old asian lady (privacy) who spoke maybe a few hundred words of english. I can now make tofu taste good. Which feels like a flipping miracle to me.
JamesRawles@reddit
We have yuge stockipiles
voiderest@reddit
I thought crows were omnivorous.
HawaiianPunchaNazi@reddit
So then we all agree those calorie consuming crows are a mutual threat to all our future calories?
Literally ;-)
OkArcher5090@reddit
Things are fine in my reality. I don’t look out for stuff like this or watch the news. I just randomly came across this sub
Isaiah_The_Bun@reddit
Kind of interesting to see the climate collapse. global economic collapse and AI happen simultaneously.
Dazzling_Outcome_436@reddit
Historically, climate change has always caused political change.
A_Bad_Dog@reddit
Just because the music didn’t stop when you expected doesn’t mean the band won’t give up at some point
Charley2014@reddit
This crash will be due to a liquidity crisis. Look into overnight repo, lender of last resort.
IrwinJFinster@reddit
The Fed learned how to deal with that in 2009-10. If liquidity were the only issue, there are tried-and-true playbooks to avoid systemic crash.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
True. But they weren’t dealing with a debt level/deficit then like now. My take is that the Fed/Treasury will resort to measures that worked in previous crises, but will be confronted by bond/debt vigilantes and the system will blow up.
All systemic financial crises ultimately result from a credit/liquidity crisis.
IrwinJFinster@reddit
Any guesses on when the deflationary wave starts?
Charley2014@reddit
Ah see, they want you to think that they’ve learned their lesson. All they did was kick the can down the road. Have a good look at how the Japanese Yen Carry Trade, AI bubble, and the insane leverage these institutions are holding are all tied together and the music is going to stop, soon.
IrwinJFinster@reddit
Japan has been kicking that can longer than should be possible. But—I agree overall. When we didn’t go down in 2009-10 I predicted we’d start going down in 2025, with 2025 beginning the end of our reserve currency status. I even predicted why. Because a liquidity crisis with a stable US government is one thing, but a liquidity crisis with an ineffective polarized government with the American version of The Troubles is quite another. I think the chaos takes off from here over the next five years. We’ll have deflationary waves as things with “moneyness” denominated in the reserve currency get illiquid or destroyed, and waves of inflation caused by fewer physical assets to purchase and, in later waves, inflation caused by “printing” more USD that are increasingly no longer reserve currency but just another fiat currency issued by just another mismanaged country. Next 5-10 years will certainly be interesting.
Charley2014@reddit
Japan’s can kicking is one thing certainly, but US institutions have been taking advantage of the “free money” spigot which is what I believe to be a main driver of this AI bubble that we’re seeing.
I don’t want to get too much into a “controversial” topic but if you look deeper into the GameStop squeeze in 2021, a lot of things will start making sense. There is a whole Reddit sub full of meticulously authored DD that goes into greater detail which includes the fall of China’s Evergrand, the yen carry trade, naked shorting, cellar boxing, Brazilian puts, the UBS absorption of Credit Suisse, and so much f*ckery.
The USD has gone down what, 11% this year, so far? I believe that the world ‘powers that be’ see the writing on the wall, know that there’s no easy way to dig themselves out of this hole, and have created a lot of turmoil aka manufactured distraction and attempts to divert the attention to left vs. right when it’s really a socioeconomic class war. It’s incredibly unfortunate. We could have affordable healthcare, we could have environmental protections, we could have safer communities, but there are some people who are just too greedy and only care about the numbers on the balance sheet.
IrwinJFinster@reddit
Well, they won’t be fully insulated from what’s coming.
hhh888hhhh@reddit
Credit concerns reach European markets as bank stocks slide 3% https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/european-markets-to-open-lower-volvo-meets-expectations.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Cultural-Company282@reddit
Financial experts have predicted twenty of the last three financial downturns.
ConcreteCrusher@reddit
Kind of like tornado outbreaks. Sometimes the conditions are there but the forecast busts. Hate to be wrong though if you miss it.
Old-Consequence1735@reddit
This is a damn funny line
WingsOfTin@reddit
I'm with a regional bank - is there any wisdom in transferring to something bigger?
IrwinJFinster@reddit
2009 says: Too Big Too Fail banks may be a safer play. Why not “all of the above?” I use one Too Big To Fail as primary, another for a secondary generally unused credit card, a little in one regional bank, and more in a well-run credit union that has good rates whether lending or borrowing.
SquirrelyMcNutz@reddit
Disclaimer: I Am Not A Financial Advisor or Professional Money Guy
My opinion is that you only keep enough money in a bank to cover your bills/autopay/checking account/etc. Everything else should be invested elsewhere, even if that investment is a tin can in the back yard. You'll get garbage ROI from a bank, so might as well keep it out so they don't have it to play with (and the execs can't roll around in it like a dragon).
Aromatic-Pudding-299@reddit
AI bubble hasn’t burst, it’s just getting started. You haven’t seen anything yet regarding what job replacement will look like with AI.
No-Serve-9134@reddit
Ber asks, "does anyone want the last slice of cake?".......But in a very low voice.
KazTheMerc@reddit
The Stock Market and The American Economy have gotten more and more disconnected. .I'm not sure it's even a good comparison anymore.
ThisIsAbuse@reddit
I don't know how to prep for what I could maybe see happening all at once. We have all the right things in place - months of emergency savings, food, supplies, conservative (?) 401Ks, my wife's job is very secure, mine it kind is for the time being.
ESPGTR@reddit
Watch gold and SPY
they tell you everything you need to know
banjogitup@reddit
I'm keeping my eye on the 50 SMA on SPY. That's strong support and spells trouble if we break and stay below.
MedWriterForHire@reddit
I’m in a lull after a contract and having hell even getting a conversation. A lot of pharma companies do seem to be shifting to the freelance side, and cutting whole teams of full-timers. As a result, not a lot of openings; daily growing applicants who are likely all extremely qualified. It’s tough, but there’s always a way. I’m trying to learn video editing, in the meantime.
For any recruiters… Freelance Medical Writer, marketing strategist, community educator
FelineOphelia@reddit
I freelanced in comms, even medical comms, and I got gobs of $ thrown at me 2008+ cuz corp loved not having to house and health employees. They loved freelancers.
Elegant-Procedure-74@reddit
Yeah I have 2 part time jobs that are very… flexible. I’m hoping one of them will become more full time soon (I need to find time to practice a speech to discuss going full time - if that’s even a thing I can do since I’m still so new / also I’ve heard there are changes happening in the company so idk if it’s even an option either).
I just finally got some serious health crisis for my self handled - and I’m now currently in the clear. But these have set me back and I am nowhere what I had hoped to be at this point in the year.
I have to start back over because of my CC debt & im trying to get myself ahead because I feel back on my CC when I got sick in February - that’s taken til October to be cleared for. So I’m now trying to put extra money to that to bring it down and pay it off. Honestly you just never know if health / medical issues will set you back and this year it did for me. I’m hanging in there and miles apart health wise now so I am doing good.
Gotta get back to my top up shopping trips as I feel I’ve been using up stuff this summer and not really replacing a lot.
I am back to using a cash allowance for myself and I have been very strict on that but I think I need a new budget plan.
Thank you for the break downs and advice thought I will take any advice I can get!
femaiden@reddit
I keep seeing that were in a K shaped economy and I think you're saying the same.
workswithherhands@reddit
I appreciate the information and how you break it down. Nobody expects you to be able to predict the future. Black Monday could happen anytime.
TheTendieMans@reddit
I'm still positioned in a job where I likely won't get hit, mostly due to my 11 years experience and already underpaid status. But the next 5 years are likely to be brutal if things go tits up. I'm still going to keep stacking my dividend stocks and building additional safety nets + food and water purification wise as I can. I also have a few thousand watts of portable solar panels and many portable power banks I can charge along with some petroleum based heating and power generation options that should last at least 1 winter in needed.
I sure hope things don't stay at maximum awful for longer than that. I really don't want to NEED to pull out the dozens of potassium iodide tablets out. I really don't want to live in the Fallout universe.
hhh888hhhh@reddit
By the way, Jeffries investment baking went down another 10% today.
IrwinJFinster@reddit
The hard part is timing the waves of deflation and inflation as a reserve currency slowly devolves.
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
I dont know if I could allow this as it falls under theory.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
Jeffries is huge and it’s down 11% just today. I don’t think this is theory at this point.
Did you make progress on your troubles?
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Ehh it's one bank, again, some... but I'm going to try to come up with a bunch of money to buy out the homestead, and it's a huge risk to me as I'd have to liquidate near everything to have a shot at it.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
I wish you all the best with it. I know it must be very traumatic for you.
I added an article about banking fears from a few minutes ago. Several large (not mega) banks are down 10%+ today alone.
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Should however put it under the everything else post... maybe even the work / business post.