Record leap in CO2 fuels fears of accelerating global heating
Posted by mustwinfullGaming@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 64 comments
Posted by mustwinfullGaming@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 64 comments
Hour-Stable2050@reddit
Seems like Nature itself is an Accelerationist.
CosmosGatito@reddit
but they call me an "extremist" when i advocate for it...
squailtaint@reddit
The only measurement that truly matters, actual atmospheric levels. Despite reports of countries curbing CO2 emissions, we see record rises. Implying two things: 1. The way we measure individual countries emissions is flawed, and/or 2. Natural emissions are growing (feed back loops - or losing carbon sinks).
It’s concerning that we have seen record growth in renewables but no abatement in CO2 growth.
Radiant-Visit1692@reddit
Hardly surprising is it, we've known "offsets" were bullshit for years: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe
Calculations are complete BS in the developed world, let alone the rest of the world that has less bureaucracy, regulatory integrity, budget and capacity for measuring and tracking etc etc.
pumpkinspicecum@reddit
Bring it on
oxero@reddit
Didn't a large spike occur last year too? It's a bad sign because this is implying the carbon sinks we relied on are potentially starting to fail.
-ummon-@reddit
This article is about last year’s increase.
oxero@reddit
Thanks, makes a big difference in alarm. Still bad, but if that trend continues it's really bad news
fedfuzz1970@reddit
I wonder if we'll know the number for this year and going forward as reporting such data is now verboten?
turnkey_tyranny@reddit
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu
cassanderer@reddit
And or feedback loops are accelerating releases beyond ours.
What about methane levels though? I forhet but there is a site that measures every day and averages them and such.
Ree_on_ice@reddit
Methane and nitrous oxide are the two other "main" greenhouse gases. Combined they add about 30% extra global warming. It's a bit fuzzy on the math department, which is why so few use "CO2(e)" and just default to CO2.
But with those two we're likely at 520-550ppm (CO2 equivalents).
new2bay@reddit
Believe it or not, water vapor actually traps more heat than CO2 these days. It’s just that CO2 sticks around so much longer, and we’re directly adding to the amount with our activities, so it’s a primary driver of the rate of increase in global average temperatures.
Ree_on_ice@reddit
Believe it or not, that's a denier talking point, and you're talking to essentially an expert in both what types of denier propaganda exists, and how to debunk them.
Water vapor is an effect of CO2 and dissipates quickly without the warming effect of CO2, which is why it's considered part of the CO2's greenhouse effect, even though if you try to divide the two for some reason, you get "more from water vapor".
The only thing I can't discern here is if you're an actual climate denier that wandered in from r/all or r/climateskeptics, or if you just happened to sip some propaganda by accident. Which is it?
new2bay@reddit
No, I’m telling the truth. CO2 sticks around for centuries. Water vapor sticks around for days or hours. There’s just so much of it that it traps more heat than CO2. We don’t need to worry about water vapor, because we’re not spewing huge quantities of it into the air, on purpose, like we are CO2 and methane. Methane traps 80x more heat per molecule CO2, but it’s much less stable in the atmosphere and only lasts about a decade. It’s the chemical stability of CO2 that’s the reason we (rightly!) focus on it over other GHGs when talking about climate change.
There. Did I pass your purity test?
cassanderer@reddit
We should be tracking methane too with the vast sinks in the permafrost, not to mention from oil drilling.
I read 30 pc on methane idk nitrous oxide, is that released from industry? Lightning makes some of it naturally.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
If I remember correctly it's mostly an agricultural byproduct. It's at ~338 ppb now, up by 1ppb since last year.
For comparison, methane sits at 1934 ppb, up 8 ppb since last year
squailtaint@reddit
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/
The bottom of 2024 was around 1920 ppb. It looks like bottom for 2025 will be around 1930 ppb. A 0.5% increase. The last few years looks to be re base lining at 0.5% increase from previous. 2010 was about 1800 ppb. So about a 7% increase over the last 15 years. At this rate, by 2040, we would be at around 2054 ppb.
Fozzytie@reddit
It does feel exactly like that is whats happening. I would expect things to start moving faster now. Not like it isn’t already “sooner than expected” on everything.
Soci3talCollaps3@reddit
Agreed. We're now on the sooner than sooner than expected trajectory, as one does when using linear imagination for exponential changes.
Radiomaster138@reddit
They’re either failing, being overwhelmed, or both! 😃
La_Hyene911@reddit
Its mental when you think in North America everything post 50s was built around "car culture" basically there no going back without serious rethinking and for the most part its those big babies on the right who have to be contrarians never accepting that life needs to change. Say what you will about Europe but at least they re trying something. In the US and Canada its just people refusing to spend on infrastructure to help mitigate climate change..
onetwothreeandgo@reddit
As an european i always cringe when americans talk about "walkable cities" like it was an alien and utopian concept
La_Hyene911@reddit
what most people dont understand is that most of the US cities started expansion after ww2 when a lot of refugees and farm boys returning from war went to college. So a lot of it was modeled after easy to build homes (heck you could even buy a fully furnished house "KIT" from sears). And more crucially the top marginal rate was 91 percent in the 50's no loopholes allowed. Corporate taxes were also simililarly high. Fast forward to today the rich dont even pay taxes anymore they get all these credits and generally game the system.. So no money, no large infrastructure projects. The republicans have been chipping at the rates since the 70's with the myth of Trickle Down Economics
onetwothreeandgo@reddit
Oh yeah i know the story and the idea of suburbs being the desired setting due to the GI Bill. I lived in the US 12 years (including indiana) and my husband is american. So I am aware of the causes, the culture and how cities are built. But I still cannot get over every time an American says "walkable cities". Sorry =/
La_Hyene911@reddit
Indiana... That s a flyover state, we try not to think about them.
onetwothreeandgo@reddit
Their motto before was "Crossroads of America"... so yeah.... Now is "More to discover". Which I am not sure if it is really an improvement lol
onetwothreeandgo@reddit
Their state motto before was "crossroards of america" so... yeah. Now is "More to discover
NyriasNeo@reddit
There is no fear unless you have false hope. You can always accept and make peace.
"despite a pledge by the world’s countries in 2023 to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas"
Lol .. is anyone gullible enough to believe pledges? How many nations hit their pathetic paris agreement pledges again? You know "drill baby drill" won, right?
Distion55x@reddit
I'm in my early 20s and man I keep trying to convince myself I could've had a life, a future, but I feel like it's been over since before I was born
phixion@reddit
Calvin: "I wonder if you can refuse to inherit the earth."
Hobbes: "I think if you're born, it's too late."
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
I was like "fuck it, I have no future" in my early 20s and I kinda regret it now. Just live your life to the best of your ability so you dont regret it. Fulfill your wishes, get that degree, get married, now is the time.
AshamedAd6133@reddit
It sucks and it’s not fair, but whatever you want to do with this life now is the time to go do it.
Bipogram@reddit
Excellent advice no matter one's age.
springcypripedium@reddit
Drill, baby, drill, log, baby, log, mine baby mine and bring on the data centers!
By 2030, global data center greenhouse gas emissions will amount to around 40 percent of what the US emits in a year. WASF. And you are correct the "pledges" and "offsets" are utter bullshit.
https://greentechlead.com/climate/data-center-boom-to-drive-2-5-bn-metric-tons-of-co2-emissions-47672
It-s_Not_Important@reddit
Not since they made me pledge allegiance back in elementary school. How can I take something seriously when i never meant the words myself?
hairy_ass_truman@reddit
There has been a lot of indoctrination.
petered79@reddit
exactly this 'despite' is this false hope that lead to fear. there is no true pledge. accept the reality. live in peace
Radiomaster138@reddit
I believe it as much as any company that plans to go net zero for carbon emissions… since they just buy into bullshit programs that claim to remove carbon from the atmosphere.
jbond23@reddit
Can anyone point me at the same curve for CO2e : the number that includes methane and other greenhouse gases in a single CO2 equivalent number?
We're still turning fossil carbon into CO2e at an accelerating rate. Roughly 13GtC/Yr turned into 40GtCO2/yr and 60GTCO2e until the 1TtC of accessible fossil carbon is all gone. So not surprising that atmospheric CO2e concentration is also accelerating.
SomeGuyInNewZealand@reddit
"Surged" is not the verb I'd use when discussing 3.5 out of 1 million. I'd refer to it as a miniscule increase.
But then again, Im not trying to over-dramatise an issue.
AngusScrimm---------@reddit
"This is the largest increase since 1957..."
Why is 1957 an outlier? I often read statements about "the highest temperature since 1888," only to find out that 1888 was simply the first year of record keeping. I'm curious about the significance of 1957, maybe someone can clue me in.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
It's the first year some people climbed up Mauna Loa to take isolated measurements. Before that, measurements can be considered largely inaccurate (taken haphazardly at various locales and altitudes, including in cities or near pollution sources.
gmuslera@reddit
It was the year we started to measure CO2 levels in way comparable to the current one.
Amazing_Elk_8211@reddit
That was the year the Space Race occurred
TuneGlum7903@reddit
So, EXACTLY the same thing was reported in 2024 about 2023. I wrote an article about it.
In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 ± 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958[1], while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 ± 0.5%[2,3].
83 - 2023 was a BAD year for the Earth’s Climate. (08/05/24)
Discussing this paper
Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023 — Presented at the International Carbon Dioxide Conference in Manaus, Brazil, July 2024
And the press coverage.
One of Earth’s major carbon sinks collapsed in 2023. — Schib.com 072524
What they found in 2023
“Extreme heat, drought and wildfires caused forests and other land ecosystems to emit almost as much carbon dioxide as they removed from the atmosphere in 2023, nearly canceling out a major natural sink of the greenhouse gas.”
Regional flux anomalies from 2015–2022 are consistent between top-down
and bottom-up approaches,
with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 ± 0.19 GtC yr-1),
extreme fire emissions of 0.58 ± 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada
and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13± 0.12 GtC yr-1).
Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20°N declined by half to 1.13 ± 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023.
Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015–16 El Niño carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Niña years (2020–2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Niño (0.56 ± 0.23 GtC yr-1).
So, what happened in 2023?
Short version: The Amazon and SE Asia dried out.
“Imagine your plants at home: If you don’t water them, they’re not very productive, they don’t grow, they don’t take up carbon. Put that on a big scale like the Amazon forest,” — Stephen Sitch, a study co-author and carbon expert at the University of Exeter
This prevented them from taking up more carbon.
And, Canada BURNED.
The SAME thing happened in 2024 and 2025 doesn’t look to be any better.
gmuslera@reddit
Surprised pikachu face? Between big countries delaying or cancelling their climate pledges, massive forest fires and the positive feedback loops still rolling it would be surprising keeping the rate of previous years.
All the positive that is being done is still orders below what business as usual keeps doing, there are more cars, more plane trips, more consumption, more energy demand, and so on, while the world keeps adapting to the new climate conditions absorbing more heat and emitting more greenhouse gases. And all of this in a La Niña year, the next strong El Niño stage will give a new meaning to record leap.
Will next year do another, even bigger leap in CO2? Odds should be pretty high than yes. We are still intentionally fuelling the fire instead of trying to turn it off. And even trying to slow it down may be damaging enough to not even test it.
Udder1991@reddit
If only there was something we could do. We've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas.
Beastw1ck@reddit
These headlines are just comedy at this point
faster-than-expected@reddit
Not only is CO2 at record levels with a record increase, but:
“Atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide – the second and third most important greenhouse gases related to human activities – also rose to record levels in 2024.
About 40% of methane emissions come from natural sources. But scientists are concerned that global heating is leading to more methane production in wetlands, another potential feedback loop. The rest comes from fossil fuel exploitation; livestock such as cattle; rotting waste in landfills; and rice paddies. Human-caused nitrous oxide emissions include those from overuse of fertiliser by farmers and some industrial processes.”
Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas, which is very worrisome.
Higher than expected and faster than “faster than expected“.
imminentjogger5@reddit
it's so over
NoHuckleberry2543@reddit
Astronaut pointing gun at second astronaut.
It-s_Not_Important@reddit
So Ohio is to blame?
lost_horizons@reddit
When in doubt…
glasshomonculous@reddit
I feel like every day now the guardian has an article about how we’ve fucked it all. And I consider the guardian (in the UK at least) to be mainstream media.
Looks like they’ve become more scared of climate change than scaring the public, which makes me think we are bond the pale now
Radiomaster138@reddit
Just for humans and most of the live on Earth. I for one, welcome our reptilian overlords.
Cool-Contribution-68@reddit
While I agree with the article, I'm trying to figure out what the "news" part is.
willismthomp@reddit
Gotta have Ai slop so worth it
HellionElectricEye@reddit
someone should make they live glasses that can see co2 and then put it on everyone roddy piper style. thats the only solution at this point i fear.
Equivalent_Post_6222@reddit
Does that include the extended alleyway beat down before they try them on? I think it’s necessary
HellionElectricEye@reddit
absolutely, i'll die trying to put it on someone's face if i have.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/mustwinfullGaming:
SS: Despite talks about making progress towards hitting climate goals, there was actually a record leap in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The increase was 3.5 parts per million, giving us a total of 424ppm in 2024. This is the largest increase since 1957, according to the World Meteorological Organization. As well as that, concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also rose to record levels in 2024.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1o7ayct/record_leap_in_co2_fuels_fears_of_accelerating/njma7cr/
PrimalSaturn@reddit
Eye-roll.
mustwinfullGaming@reddit (OP)
SS: Despite talks about making progress towards hitting climate goals, there was actually a record leap in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The increase was 3.5 parts per million, giving us a total of 424ppm in 2024. This is the largest increase since 1957, according to the World Meteorological Organization. As well as that, concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also rose to record levels in 2024.