Why is a third runway at Heathrow predicted to cost so much?
Posted by WolfCola4@reddit | AskUK | View on Reddit | 232 comments
This debate about a third runway has been going on seemingly for decades at this point, with recent figures quoted at around 49 billion pounds to build.
Granted, I'm no builder. And I'm aware there's probably a bit more work to put in than in my imagination, which essentially is just tarmacking an especially long driveway. But seriously, 49 billion pounds??
Even-Wolf1676@reddit
Heathrow is privately owned anyway. So its not like the £49 billion is coming out of tax payers pockets
Quiet_Law958@reddit
Whilst I have no idea whether the quoted figures are too high or not, the reality is that we cannot get value for money in this country. It'll end up being finished late and way over budget and a few people will be much much richer. There is no accountability either, look at the HS2 fiasco.
OldLondon@reddit
M25 has to be diverted or have a tunnel / bridge of some kind, compulsory purchase of 1000s of houses etc etc
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Add in a new terminal (I guess) plus all the infrastructure around that to get people in and out.
It’s typical of the UK press to focus on the cost - which I agree still seems ludicrous - but not actually tell anyone what that really includes. That leads us straight to the “tarmacking a long driveway” comment above.
OldLondon@reddit
I worked on this the first time round before it was binned - so have a pretty intimate knowledge!
Jimoiseau@reddit
Do you know why a second runway or runway extension at Birmingham is never considered? With HS2 it's only about 15 minutes further from central London than Heathrow is.
ceffyl_gwyn@reddit
Because if you're connecting through to a flight to LA/Istanbul/Singapore, then journey time to Central London is irrelevant.
Almost a quarter of trips to Heathrow are transfers.
Dry_Interaction5722@reddit
Because when some foreign business man in Singapore or some American tourist from Wisconsin is booking tickets to go to London, there only going to look at London airports, they arent going to know that Birmingham is only an extra 15 minutes on the train.
Connect-Camera62@reddit
Simple, rename it London Birmingham airport.
OldLondon@reddit
Because there is no need for additional capacity there. It’s need, people WANT to fly to Heathrow
Anubis1958@reddit
Trust me, those of us whi have been forced to use Heathrow definitely DO NOT WANT to use Heathrow.
OldLondon@reddit
I’m talking global travel wise, that’s where the requirement is, just facts I’m afraid. It’s a hub airport. Whether it’s any good or not doesn’t matter - location, location , location.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
I can only imagine the multiple things involved and how they add up! Shame our media just see it as simple as a 2.5 mile long stretch of road.
Prediterx@reddit
I know you already know this... But it's not even a 'simple' road like that A53 through the country...
It's got to deal with a vehicle that weighs up to 560 tons, which is also going to be exerting the downward force of the things landing. The design for these is probably to handle ~1000Tons safely, which requires a bit more than 3ft of MOT 1, and 1ft of tarmac.
That's before we get into how it has to be engineered not to be ripped up by the shear force of four jet engines at maximum thrust, sending air over it at 1000 miles an hour.
The engineering that goes into a runway is immense, even though it just looks like a road. That's without talking about the supporting infrastructure, taxiways, lighting, air traffic control redesign, extra fire engines, extra terminals...
andtheniansaid@reddit
i mean the actual runway isn't going to be that expensive at all. the entire new Western Sydney Int airport, due to open next year, cost $5.6b AUD (about £2.7b).
The much bigger costs here are land acquisition and moving the M25
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
I agree, all this very expensive stuff just barely gets a sniff in the Daily Mail headlines does it. Written deliberately in a way to wind people up.
Ok-Blackberry-3534@reddit
Everything in the Daily Mail is written to wind people up. To a greater or lesser degree that's true of all the print press.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
True. The word ‘Newspapers’ is a bit of a misnomer of course, worse now than it’s ever been as far as I can tell. Sadly even though they sell few physical copies these days the whole BS cycle just continues in their online versions.
Mynameismikek@reddit
It's still a stonking amount of money though. It's about 20% more than the entire travel & leisure segment of the FTSE100.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
I agree. But there is so much involved. There is a breakdown elsewhere in the thread that someone else added, it’s quite the list. I’m still unsure it’ll ever go ahead TBH given the bad press over HS2.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
It's private sector spending so HS2 is irrelevant.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Which I have a ready acknowledged below 👇
fuggerdug@reddit
The elites want this though, whereas they saw HS2 as an inconvenience/annoyance. The same shitty papers that convinced so many people that HS2 was just to knock 20 minutes off a journey between Birmingham and London will use their influence to convince people in Rochdale that building a ludicrously expensive third runway at an already overcrowded airport is essential to maintain their way of life
slade364@reddit
It's funded privately. Unless you're on the flight path I can't really see why you'd oppose. Large capital projects drive employment and wages - they're generally a good thing. And if private investors are footing the bill, even with some government subsidies, I'm not sure why they need to influence in Rochdale.
Mdann52@reddit
The environmental impacts are a good reason to impose, unless you believe the green washing of SAF.
It's the age-old grown v emissions argument though
slade364@reddit
Had to get that in there eh?
jab305@reddit
This is private funding though. Government just providing permission.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Fair point. Just read the BBC article on it which barely touched on that element.
Andries89@reddit
Keep in mind that the cost will inflate each year between now and completion...
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Are you trying to teach me about how inflation works now? Thanks 👍😂
Andries89@reddit
Sensitive, no I'm just saying that this won't be the final cost, just the projected cost
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Not sensitive, just not sure it needed to be said 🤷♂️
Home_Assistantt@reddit
Someone’s tired
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Nope, wide awake thanks. Anything to add to the topic in question or just here to troll?
Home_Assistantt@reddit
Not trolling (a troll) just wondering why you got so twisted about someone being helpful.
Some people just can’t help themselves I guess.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
It was just stating the obvious and I did add a cheesy laughing emoji to show I was being lighthearted about it. Time to move on, plenty dafter opinions in the thread to pick holes in 👍
Home_Assistantt@reddit
Ah. The old back pedal. Nice.
Have a good day
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Back pedal? How so? No back pedalling here, the comment really was just stating the obvious. Goodbye.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
And there you go tying yourself in even more knots.
Must be exhausting being you
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Honestly, either add something to the discussion or move on. No exhaustion here but thanks for caring.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
🤣😂🤣
Sorry I thought you’d bye.
Think you might need a lie down
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Did you think I was going to block you or something? Not worth the effort TBH.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
not at all I thought you said goodbye and were going about your day but this just prove my point you cant help yourself...you always HAVE to be right and say it out loud so others can hear you
I'm glad your not blowing me though...as this means replying is MORE of an effort than blocking me which proves my point even more
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Nope, I’m definitely not blowing you. Find someone else to do that.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
its on my list
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Oh look, you edited your post. How sweet.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
It's not about being right or wrong it was just a throwaway response to a superfluous comment and you've got your knickers in a twist
about it and gone all white knight for no real reason. Get out of bed on the wrong side today?
not entirely sure why you deleted the above comment....maybe more backpedaling...sounds like your thing.
Not white knighting at all though..clearly your'e just not often called out for being THAT person....
It's odd that some people like to be that person but hate being called out for being that way...did your mum tell you you were going to be special?
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
I didn’t delete anything as it happens 👍
Home_Assistantt@reddit
ah the old convenient disappearing message.
Almost as convenient as your first throwaway comment and backpedaling of it
your wife needs a medal
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
It didn’t disappear on my phone but yeah, that’ll be my fault as well.
Honestly, there is so much useful information on this thread now and you’re still here attacking me because I thought someone was stating the obvious. First it’s comments about mum telling me I’m special then something about my wife and now I’m a liar because for some reason you can’t see a message I posted. I mean WTF?
Home_Assistantt@reddit
the fact you think its an attack says even more about you...
You're called out for a superfluous and super pointless reply, you don't like it and try to back pedal and say your going about your day, yet here you are dying on your hill
Home_Assistantt@reddit
now I'm almost 100% sure your name is Karen
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
You’re the one who has seemingly made this personal with your mum/wife/Karen jibes for little real reason. Why get so triggered about it, it wasn’t even your comment I replied to?
Plenty to get angry about in this country, one liner comments on Reddit not so much. But you do you.
I’ll even let you have the last word as it will undoubtedly make you feel better.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
ok thanks Karen
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
I’d have let you had the last word but you just repeated an insult. 0 out of 10 for effort there, must do better 👍
Home_Assistantt@reddit
if she shoe fits, Karen
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Is that still your best shot? FFS.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
is someone filming you laying on the floor and flailing your arms around yet, Karen
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Honestly, is this what it all comes down to, trying to get a reaction of some kind? This attempt will have to go down as an epic fail I’m afraid, my blood pressure really hasn’t risen by the amount you’d like it to.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
you do realise this IS a reaction...you've replied to what started off as a superfluous comment for most of the morning Karen....
I don't want your blood pressure to rise at all...I think you've misunderstood why we're here...you made a quite frankly ridiculous comment...got called out for it by the OP and me and are dying on the hill you set off on....
So Karen, the day continues
Home_Assistantt@reddit
actually off that she might already have left through exhaustion too
Home_Assistantt@reddit
i did because it was wrong/a spelling mistake - whereas your OP is still there cos you cant help yourself cos you STILL think your right...even after back pedaling...but that proves my point in so many ways
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
It’s not about being right or wrong it was just a throwaway response to a superfluous comment and you’ve got your knickers in a twist about it and gone all white knight for no real reason. Get out of bed on the wrong side today?
Home_Assistantt@reddit
oh I don't care
Andries89@reddit
Why not? It adds perfectly fine onto what you said. You are weird
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Ok, thanks for your input.
Andries89@reddit
You're welcome, thanks for interrogating me about why I'm leaving comments on social media
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
You’re welcome, happy to oblige.
Specimen_E-351@reddit
The person who worked on the project could easily have turned round and said "are you trying to teach me that an airport needs a terminal?" to you, but they didn't.
There's a lesson in there somewhere, all you must do is find it.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
I don’t own a crystal ball so I didn’t know he’d worked on it until his response to my original post.
I don’t need a crystal ball to understand how inflation works. But thanks for your input too 👍
Specimen_E-351@reddit
You don't need to have worked on an airport to know they need a terminal.
Try considering the point I'm making?
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Did you read the original post here at all? It actually - simplistically - equated the job to tarmacking a long driveway. I suppose if you’re going to read comments out of sequence then you will lose context…..
Specimen_E-351@reddit
Yep.
Yep.
Your response to the original comment made perfect sense in the context, and the original person did not randomly respond very rudely to you for no reason.
Someone else then added to the point you were making, which made perfect sense in the context, and you did randomly respond very rudely to them for no reason.
You see, I haven't lost the context, and have now spelled out the point I'm making extremely clearly for you to understand.
I suppose you think if multiple people believe you're being weird and rude for no reason that it is actually the multiple people who are the problem?
GenitalConsumer@reddit
Hi
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
Jeez, get over yourself. I found the point about inflation to be superfluous and said so in a fairly throwaway manner, stop being some kind of white knight for gods sake.
CaptainSwaggerJagger@reddit
Just like the "Government spent half a million to move a dot and change some colours on Gov.uk". That's the most visible bit so it's very easy for a newspaper to do a hit piece and make out that that's all that was contracted for.
coomzee@reddit
Same with HS2. Number of new / upgrads to stations, new trains, bridges, loads of pointless tunnels under posh people land, signalling, validation, compliance.
dinobug77@reddit
If my driveway had to support the weight of an A380 landing on it I bet if would cost more!!
cloud__19@reddit
I think the "tarmacking a long driveway" comment, whilst it might have an element of hyperbole, indicates a lack of critical thinking. I don't know much about it but it's perfectly obvious that there will be existing infrastructure to deal with.
Mobile-Stomach719@reddit
I agree - and the OP alludes to that himself - but I’ll wager there is a large amount of the population who really do see it as being that simple.
MikeLanglois@reddit
It seems like there isnt actually space for it and they are just making space? Couldnt other airports like Gatwick be expanded for less to the same effect?
OldLondon@reddit
Problem is the need is at Heathrow cos that’s the hub airport and where people want to fly to. It’s a perception thing isn’t it, people still see Gatwick as the holiday airport. Ideally it should be both. The number of runways we have at our two major airports is silly compared to other countries.
WildCedrus@reddit
Based off the numbers from the last CAA report from 2024 that mentions terminal vs transferring passengers, I don’t see how Heathrow is a hub airport. Seems to be shifting to a more direct model. Very different statistics if you look at Dubai for example
If you allow Heathrow is have a third runway, I think other airports including Gatwick should be able to have a second runway. In my mind, it’s anti competitive if you don’t, as there must be some efficiencies to having multiple runways
Charlie_Yu@reddit
Would a new international airport be cheaper?
BadahBingBadahBoom@reddit
That's one of the two proposals (Heathrow Airport group).
The other proposal by Arora group, which is looking increasingly likely, proposes a shorter third runway of 2,800 m length (vs 3,500 m) that would not require the M25 to be modified in any way.
discoveredunknown@reddit
Bet Heathrow are coining it in since putting up that £5 (now £6?) drop off charge after Covid. A quick look suggests it accounts for about 20% of its non-aeronautical income per year. For doing nothing. Incredible. £185m in 23/24 just for people dropping off at the entrance.
Fusilero@reddit
Only 265 more years of the drop off charge and they can afford the third runway (estimated at £49 billion).
discoveredunknown@reddit
Money for quite literally old rope, I’m sure there’s an investment firm somewhere that will take this into account. Pay it off in 132 years by increasing it to a tenner!
Fusilero@reddit
Don't give them ideas 😔
CarpeCyprinidae@reddit
Or point out that due to the way compounding of interest works, if they double the charge it shortens the payoff time by considerably more than 50%
fitigued@reddit
...and even then only if interest is not charged on the £49bn.
Maleficent-Drive4056@reddit
£185m per annum isn’t much in the context of a £49bn expansion plan.
Maleficent-Drive4056@reddit
Will doing it piecemeal really reign in the cost or just spread a higher cost out over more years?
BadahBingBadahBoom@reddit
I can't see how splitting up the project won't end up costing more: second proposal, consultation, political process, investment, whole hiring up of all the work staff (who hopefully haven't left since the first project).
What it will do is allow the government to continue spending on other areas / prevent cuts for the tax years the scaled-down project is built.
The best thing is really just stability. If hs2 has taught us anything it is that it is much better to just have a plan and stick with it than constantly go back and make changes until your drawing board is illegible and there are a dozen more companies/subgroups involved who are being paid just to implement the changes, or worst: changes of changes. Sigh.
jab305@reddit
Do you know why the runway can't be built in line with the existing two? Whenever you see a map of the 3rd runway I wonder what could possibly be restricting it's movement to the east to make rediverting the M25 the best option.
BadahBingBadahBoom@reddit
You would have to then tunnel the M4 spur that enters from the north and provides traffic access to T2 and T3 (and tbh most of T4 traffic that comes via M25/M4).
There's also the larger towns/villages just north of Heathrow that are likely much much harder to force demolish vs the small village on the north west corner.
StrongDorothy@reddit
Seems like such an obvious solution. I hope they go with this.
discoveredunknown@reddit
We’d be far better off if they worked on first improving the local roads and immediate motorways around Heathrow an the surrounding areas. I frequently travel around there and it is a total mess with large parts of it gridlock at rush hour everyday. Can’t begin to imagine the chaos if they ever started building on it during years of road works.
I’d rather the money was spent making Gatwick better, although I understand the money won’t be funded from government, but the point still stands.
OldLondon@reddit
That’s a much bigger issue isn’t it related to the fact our roads and motorways weren’t specced to cope with the traffic we have. That’s why the whole WFH debate was interesting, those roads were a dream during Covid.
mynameisollie@reddit
Plus we can’t build any major infrastructure in the UK without it spiralling out of control and costing three times the initial forecast.
Houseofsun5@reddit
It's less the cost spiraling out of control and more the government trying not to scare everyone with the huge numbers involved. They give a figure that sounds palatable rather than the actuality.
OldLondon@reddit
It’s privately funded, not government funded
Key_Illustrator_9077@reddit
I saw the stat about this but forget. It was a fair chunk of the budget just to sort the motorway out if I remember correctly.
OldLondon@reddit
Yep the original plan was for the runway to follow the bath road and for the m25 to go under the runway in a new tunnel - that shit is expensive
eth0izzle@reddit
A lot of reasons why in here. But surely they could build an entire new airport for that cost? There’s so much green land around the M25 ring.
Kinitawowi64@reddit
The current site of Heathrow employs around 80,000 people. Relocating the airport and those workers is not trivial.
Never mind the environmental lobby complaining about taking over any green land.
tomfkritchie22@reddit
Do the airport owners help contribute to this cost or is it all lumped on the taxpayer to be gaslit saying we will see the benefits in a few years time?
f8rter@reddit
Planning
andrew0256@reddit
It will be expensive but the project is so complex the planning application costs will be chicken feed by the time it gets built.
f8rter@reddit
It won’t get built
andrew0256@reddit
I think it will but expect HS2 type delays and cost inflation.
f8rter@reddit
8000 homes to be demolished?
The court cases will still be going on a hundred years from now !
greatdrams23@reddit
There won't be 8000 cases, just a few and compulsory purchases can be processed in parallel with the main project.
Having said that, I'm sure the project will take longer that the opened 10 years. I'll bet on 17 years.
f8rter@reddit
I like an optimist
Anony_mouse202@reddit
Not really, you’re underestimating how much planning costs and how much bureaucratic bullshit that entails.
Just the initial application for the lower thames crossing cost over £200m, which is just the first of many, many stages.
ouzo84@reddit
Biggest cost is today i think they are actually trying to ACCURATELY predict the cost.
They can't afford to agree to a £5 billion third runway and then be told about the hidden extras later.
QVRedit@reddit
Yes, it would be “Very Helpful” to provide a bit of breakdown on those costs - like re-sighting the village, as well as ‘just building the runway’…
Tim-Sanchez@reddit
There's a breakdown of costs here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6yz77nlw4o
As you can see, it includes demolishing part of a village, and building a tunnel to divert the M25 under.
KeyRefrigerator8508@reddit
Yep. They are basically building a whole new airport inside, on top of and just outside the M25. Frankly it could go anywhere but I guess Heathrow gas much of the required infrastructure already
Fwoggie2@reddit
Except for trains. Heathrow is shit for that unless you want to go to London. I don't mind because I live in Ipswich so the Elizabeth line is great, but if you live North, South or West of Heathrow its rail connections are non existent.
Mundo7@reddit
it’s a London airport. the north, south and west have their own airports you know
Fwoggie2@reddit
I was referring to areas within 50 miles but even so intercontinental flight options aren't great if Heathrow is ruled out.
For example my brother is visiting next summer and will fly in from Joburg and back home to NZ. Getting home to NZ is easy due to the gulf carriers serving multiple regional UK airports but the only direct option into the UK from South Africa is Heathrow.
He's going to visit our Dad first in Chester and it turns out it is a right ball ache to get to from Heathrow after a 12 hour flight.
Mundo7@reddit
I'd change in Schipol then for that journey - going to Chester from Manchester will be much easier than trying to find a way from Heathrow, it's a simple change too
PatsyFlicker@reddit
Also can pick the cheapest flight, Liverpool and Manchester are similar distances from Chester and as someone who lives close, they can have vastly different prices flying in/out. It's often far cheaper to leave one and fly back into the other
Fwoggie2@reddit
Normally I'd do the same but sadly they are forced to use oneworld.
SomethingMoreToSay@reddit
"Forced"?
I think what you mean is that it's cheaper, or perceived to be economically advantageous in some other way, for them to use oneworld. But that's a benefit that can - and should be - set against the hassle of getting from Heathrow to Chester after a 12-hour flight. How much is it worth to avoid that hassle?
Fwoggie2@reddit
Nah, FIL is paying for everybody to go from NZ to ZA for a vacation. They asked to carry on to UK to see our side of the family to which he agreed if they paid the extra on top but it would have to be oneworld because he was using Qantas to fly everybody to ZA in the first place.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
Save on taxes too.
RisingDeadMan0@reddit
he means relative to heathrow, lets say Kingston, Sutton or Croydon there is no direct train, you have to go into Clapham and then back out
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
Superloop baby!
RisingDeadMan0@reddit
yeah, trains dont need to deal with traffic though, 10 minute drive is a 10 minute drive not 40 because its peak rush hr
SnooBooks1701@reddit
Bus
OptionalQuality789@reddit
Fairly dense answer. A lot of locations are only reachable via Heathrow.
SnooBooks1701@reddit
That's what Gatwick, Stansted and Luton airports are for
Fwoggie2@reddit
Unless we are talking intercontinental then you're usually screwed unless going to the Carribbean or off the beaten track Asian locations with BA.
SnooBooks1701@reddit
Gatwick does intercontinental, or you can always go to Brum
Fwoggie2@reddit
Only to a degree does it do intercontinental. Major destinations missing include Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago, Tokyo, Seoul, LA, Hong Kong plus the whole of South America.
rlarts@reddit
It’s crazy. I live directly south of Heathrow. I’m sat at my desk right now and if I look out the window I can see planes taking off from Heathrow. A quick look at Google Maps and if I want to go to T5 right now it’s a 16 minute drive or 1 hour and 6 minutes by bus. I really hope the new runway also comes with the Heathrow Southern Rail link. It’s badly needed.
RisingDeadMan0@reddit
no chance, but would be nice train around the edge of greater london....
redrabbit1984@reddit
At this point you may as well build it somewhere in the middle of the country. Like outside Reading somewhere, or just off the M4 corridor.
nick9000@reddit
He's right.
idonthavebroadband@reddit
I would rather spend fifty billion on HS2, personally.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
Except Heathrow is private sector money so it isn't A vs B.
idonthavebroadband@reddit
Sure it is. I'm sure there's no way taxpayer money will wind up being dumped into it. The private sector is generally great at paying its bills.
blueb0g@reddit
The third runway is commercially desirable for Heathrow and will provide a return on investment, so the government needs to put basically nothing in, they just need to allow it to go ahead. The economics of HS2 are completely different and it requires tens of billions of taxpayer money to build.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
Don't be ridiculous.
idonthavebroadband@reddit
I can be as ridiculous as I want.
specofdust@reddit
It's not enough to pay for all the bat tunnels and newt spas.
hurricane_97@reddit
I would rather they built both.
EUskeptik@reddit
Except HS2 is headed somewhere north of £100 million.
An object lesson in how not to build a railway.
-@@-
idonthavebroadband@reddit
Sure. But I think people forget how expensive roads and airports are whenever the time to pay for a generational upgrade to the rail network comes up. I think the national Coast of road maintenance is well north of ten billion a year.
Pogeos@reddit
What I don't get is how is this supposed to be recovered:
I found a random Heathrow annual report (HAHL_ARA_2024.pdf) which shows that their revenue is roughly 3.6bn and profit around 700mn. Lets say 3rd runway would double it (so extra 700mn profit). So 49bn / 7mn = 70 years just to recover the investments. And that's before you make any profit. 49bn invested into shares would roughly double in 10 years... so what's the point?
phead@reddit
They increase the landing fees as well as increasing traffic.
Pogeos@reddit
but would they double those fees or what? It looks like they need to at least double that extra profit revenue and even then it would be 45 years, which is still not so tolerable. I've heard that the ROI should typically be in the range of 30-35 years (I'm no expert in this space).
phead@reddit
Or even triple them. The CAA caps landing fees, but does recognise the need to pay for improvements.
Ok_Teacher6490@reddit
I suppose it highlights why western infrastructure is crumbling
Pogeos@reddit
It absolutely does. Those costs are insane, and I can't see how they could be sustainable. I always wonder: the UK managed to build huge rail infrastrucutre, huge canal system, cities, factories all in the 19th century with very primitive machinary (by the modern standards)... and nowadays building a single high-speed rail (not even very long one) turns into a taks that takes a quarter of century and requires funding comparable with running an average country.
AmazingPangolin9315@reddit
Heathrow's press release reads as follows:
The £49bn investment includes all aspects of the full expansion and modernisation of Heathrow and includes the rounding up of decimal places. Any cost comparison must take the following into account:
So it is not "just tarmacking an especially long driveway"...
AcceptableCustomer89@reddit
Tarmacking an especially long driveway killed me
PurahsHero@reddit
Compulsory purchase of land in the hottest property market in the country.
Moving the M25, while keeping it open.
Having to reconfigure the entire airport, while keeping it open (its not just laying a runway, its changing the whole layout of the airport).
Plus add in optimism bias into the cost (and extra 25% on the estimate), hence your price tag.
Top-Spinach-9832@reddit
gavco98uk@reddit
And yet it will still cost double what they've estimated!
Annoyed3600owner@reddit
At least it won't look like a big tent when it is finished.
dmills_00@reddit
Large capital projects essentially run a "Politically acceptable" budget which gets revised sharply upwards once sufficient money has been spent for the sunk cost fallacy to kick in.
Thing is everyone involved knows this full damn well, nobody takes the estimates early in the project seriously, and there is real pressure to make them as low as can be somehow justified.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
Considering this is a private sector project that seems unlikely.
ihatethis2022@reddit
Yeh we have a obviously much smaller project nearby but the same sort of political armour.
It was costed, reviewed you name it. They then cleared the site and immediately ran out of budget. So far an extra 30% they can't afford was thrown at it and.... its still an empty site. Tho now one with more fences.
darybrain@reddit
Depends if the HS2 chaps are doing it in which case it will be at 20x any estimates.
PurahsHero@reddit
It should also be noted that Heathrow's preferred option is to maximise the use of the existing runways. They are bringing forward this option essentially because the government is telling them to.
BadahBingBadahBoom@reddit
Um Heathrow group has been campaigning for a third runway for literally decades, for many years against government policy of no third runway.
And the current two runways are at full capacity. Literally the highest capacity for any two runway-airport in the world. Realistically there is no way to maximise these further, and even if you could squeeze out a few for take-offs/landings per hour that still is only possible in ideal landing conditions.
South_Leek_5730@reddit
Because we live under a capitalist system focused on greed and wealth (not wealth for the masses that is).
Every single component (part) of this project and every single cost will be done for maximum profit +25% because it's a government project. There will be back scratching and brown envelopes everywhere all the way down to the £15 toilet roll the construction workers will be using. The choice of companies to do the work will be determined not on cost or quality but how many shares those in power hold.
That's why it will cost 49 billion and that's why most infrastructure projects fail or go massively over budget. They have no incentive to complete them because when they start them up a second time they get another piece of that juicy pie. In what world do you sign a contract for someone to do work and allow them to massively overcharge at the end. They should already be factoring in inflation and there should only be an absolute minimum of things they don't know will happen based on the already extortionate amount of money paid for the planning stage. The contracts should always be written in such a way that they are liable for cock ups not the taxpayer. This isn't getting a new kitchen fitted it's a 49 billion pound project. You want value for money spending that amount.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
It's not a government project.
South_Leek_5730@reddit
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/562175/heathrow-airport-limited-statement-of-principles.pdf
Page 4 Para 2.1.6
Whilst not directly funding they are on the line for costs.
Do you have an example of a similar project we didn't pay towards or for?
Furthermore, do you really think HAL are going to pay to upgrade transport infrastructure they don't own? That's like asking Universal Studios to build that train station they need.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
That's misleading. That's to cover the cost of government changing policy, which has to happen as this project cannot get part way through and then the politicians pull consent.
South_Leek_5730@reddit
You say potato, I say tomato. Nice how you ignored my other points.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
What a strange reply.
Danuk9455@reddit
The Chinese would do it for 2b
UnsaddledZigadenus@reddit
Most of the spend is on the other airport facilities rather than just the runway.
It wouldn't make much sense to build another runway if you didn't have the terminals and other facilities to handle the new traffic you will have coming through.
Heathrow Airport's third runway expansion plans to cost £49bn - BBC News
Bright-Ad9305@reddit
Bribes
Ambitious_Zombie667@reddit
You will not believe the amount of work that has to go in before a spade has even touched the ground.
So much legislation and planning, environmental impact, compensation payments, negotiations, ground works etc etc etc.
The actual building of it is likely a really small percentage of the cost.
Anony_mouse202@reddit
Yep.
The least expensive part of building a building is building the building.
It’s utterly obscene how much money is pissed away on things that fundamentally have nothing to do with actual construction.
redrabbit1984@reddit
If this was in China, they'd have it built by next Tuesday for £2495 (+VAT)
60percentsexpanther@reddit
It's horrific to think that's all public money and the South Koreans built their entire reclaimed airport in the sea for 5x less.
englishsummer@reddit
It’s not public money, the whole thing will be privately funded
Dennyisthepisslord@reddit
It's private money so I don't particularly have an interest in cost.
englishsummer@reddit
This needs to be the top comment as I don’t think it’s common knowledge that it is not going to be a financial cost to the taxpayer.
DeliciousUse7585@reddit
“I’m no builder”
“Just tarmacking an especially long driveway”
😂😂😂
Yeah, should just be a few hundred quid shouldn’t it?
WelshBluebird1@reddit
Because it isnt essentially just that.
Maximum_RnB@reddit
There will a cast of thousands, mostly 'consultants' who will have their fingers in the till.
cooky561@reddit
Same reason that the government managed to contract a Ferry company that didn't have any ferries a few years ago. "Interesting" contract award decisions...
Our insane planning laws probably don't help either...
islandhopper37@reddit
What is so insane about the UK's planning laws? Genuine question.
cooky561@reddit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wryxyljglo just one of many examples.
matmah@reddit
The current costs are starting to make the Thames Estuary Airport a viable option. Relatively speaking a third runway is just a "cheap" temporary fix.
The should do what countries like Thailand did. Build a new airport and use the old one for domestic and short haul traffic.
The problem is, no matter who's running the country, they only ever think about the next 4-5 years and how they'll get re-elected, not what is actually good for the countries future.
cev2002@reddit
You think building a brand new airport in the Thames estuary is going to be cheaper than buying some houses and slightly re-routing the M25?
matmah@reddit
No, I never said that. I said the third runway will only be a temporary fix and not good value for money in the long run (20+ years).
It was also based on OPs 49 billion. Of the top of my head, the current estimates for the Thames Estuary Airport are around 80-90 billion.
For that money having a fully expandable future proof Estuary airport, and at the same time reducing traffic at Heathrow to short haul only, seems a great deal to me.
Life under the Heathrows flight path is bad enough at present and a third will only make it unbearable!
gardenfella@reddit
There's a lot of stuff in the way, basically.
The scheme also includes
Fwoggie2@reddit
I wish it would include major rail upgrades.
TheRealPyroManiac@reddit
You’ll use our aging rail infrastructure whilst paying extortionate prices and be pleased about it!
kahnindustries@reddit
Why don’t they just put 4 new runways in Slough? Call it Heathrow West
PhilosophyEven1088@reddit
Because the UK can’t carry out any project without enriching others at the tax payer expense.
gowithflow192@reddit
This should be the top comment. There's literally no legit reason for UK projects to cost so much and take so long. It's not bureaucracy nor even incompetence. It's corruption so entrenched that people don't even realise it's corruption. They'll even get butthurt defending it.
Curiousinsomeways@reddit
It shouldn't be top as Heathrow isn't taxpayer money.
Willywonka5725@reddit
It's the land that's going to cost the most, not Bob and his builder friends slapping down some tarmac.
metrize@reddit
we need like 4 runways and more M25 lanes, probably double or triple too
this country hates building so nothing will ever happen
Qazernion@reddit
The greatest expense is hiring a ton of expensive consultants to talk about it for 30+ years…
zeusoid@reddit
I think people just don’t appreciate how much labour costs.
What ever you are getting per hour, your cost to the business is at least 15% more.
Emergency_Mistake_44@reddit
I'll admit, even with moving the M25, buying the houses, possibly building another terminal, the runway itself and all of the other costs, that amount still seems ridiculously high.
I'd try and get 3 different quotes if I were them.
Boldboy72@reddit
did someone say it was like tarmacking a driveway?
does a driveway have to cope with 100+ tonnes of heavy metal bashing into it at 150 miles an hour every 3 minutes?
there's a hell of a lot of technology and engineering that goes into building an airport runway and unlike your driveway, potholes in a runway will actually kill people.
Inturnelliptical@reddit
Greed is the answer.
HotNeon@reddit
The UK doesn't have a steady flow of large infrastructure projects, so when something like this happens there are huge costs training people, building supply chains for the materials needed like cement, this creates a massive cost before you even start work.
It's one reason that the constitution industry is begging to extend HS2. All that work has been done, extending the line will keep all those people employed and putting those skills to use, taking advantage of those built out supply chains. If we wait 10 years and then decide to build the next phase you'll have lost the workers who have had to get a job doing something else, and the factories will have closed as no one was buying the outputs,so the cost would be far higher.
So to summarise, it is short term project-by-project planning that drives up the cost. People point to how much high speed rail china builds, how fast, how cheaply, a big part of that is they have all the workers and infrastructure ready to go so they don't have 5 years of pre work to do each time, they finish one thing and all that effort and resources has the next thing to start on
fundytech@reddit
Just like HS2, they’ll probably spend 60 billion and never finish the job.
Home_Assistantt@reddit
Cos British red tape is expensive
CrappyTan69@reddit
I've got a guy who can do it for half, cash.
ed_cnc@reddit
By the time they get around to laying the first bit of tarmac it wont be 49 billion pounds because we will have CBDC's by then .
janky_koala@reddit
Where exactly do you think this long driveway is going to go?
CaptH3inzB3anz@reddit
I did work at Heathrow for a few years and was lucky enough to see the plans for the 3rd runway.
They will have to buy out all of the houses they are going to bulldoze over to start and they have offered 25% extra to some people they are going to displace.
Building a new terminal to facilitate the new runway, this would include a multi-million pound baggage system that would need to be connected to the other terminals.
Boring tunnels for underground trains. and other transportation
Placing a bridge over the M25 as the runway will go over it.
A runway is quite a bit more than a tarmac drive, remember that an airliner is quite a heavy beast to land.
I reckon it will cost a lot more in the end, like so many other large UK building projects do, take HS2 for an example
CrabAppleBapple@reddit
'Granted I don't know what I'm talking about'.
Could have left it there really.
Crafty_Champion5293@reddit
Man, that third runway at Heathrow is going to cost an arm and a leg because, get this, they gotta relocate a whole bunch of stuff, like homes and roads, to make space for it. It's like trying to fit a new gaming setup in your tiny room - gotta move everything around. Plus, all those regulations and environmental concerns add up to a hefty bill. So yeah, it's gonna be a pricey upgrade, but hey, at least we'll get smoother takeoffs and landings, right? Priorities! ✈️💸
SouthernCoyote247@reddit
Don’t use AI to write your comments.
Inner-Device-4530@reddit
OP, with your grasp of finance and capital projects are you hoping to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?
Obvious-Water569@reddit
The cost of labour and materials involved in actually installing the physical runway will be a small percentage of that.
jaymatthewbee@reddit
Because the contractors that draw up the estimated price are in coordination with the construction contractors, so they say it costs a billion billion everyone involved will get a big pay day.
hansonhols@reddit
Its a huuuuuge project that involves ridiculous compulsory purchases. Individuals will be made very rich from this. Would be much better reallocated to a new power station or a couple or resoviors / hydro plants.
This only benefits the top few percent of mega-millionaires anyway (as in the contracts awarded and money wasted and scammed)
Massive bollocks project that we do not need.
Watch, the actual budget will be more like 100B when its completed.
sindher@reddit
The 49 quoted isn't just for the third runway. It would include a terminal and upgrading existing infrastructure as well as adjusting the M25. It's also expected to double Heathrow's annual passenger count from 80 odd to 150 ish
Ecstatic_Food1982@reddit
I think you might need to add 'million' here, lest the pedants appear.
sindher@reddit
Sadly somebody might think only 80 people a year fly out of Heathrow
Jahpool@reddit
London do get what they want huh, no matter the cost…
ByteSizedGenius@reddit
This is a cool visualisation of some of the work: https://youtu.be/Xe53X9j6Qxw?si=6b91iK8holp7i8cO
It's a huge project.
Akash_nu@reddit
Ha! You beat me to it. I’ve also just posted the same video.
Akash_nu@reddit
There’s a very informative video on how the M25 move will happen.
https://youtu.be/Xe53X9j6Qxw?si=msrc_NM_Fgylqudg
sloth_ers@reddit
I imagine its more about integrating it into the current system and having to rework everything to fit it into the current model.
Also, a lot of underhand shady overpricing going on for the politicians to line their mates pockets.
MoneyFunny6710@reddit
Because a large part of the M25 should be replaced by a tunnel.
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