Estonia closes border crossing with Russia over unusual military activity

Outside of course of your villain role that somehow it got for doing what the US has been doing for half a century, and you're somehow blind to as to recognize.

But hey, let's believe a random Ukrainian outlet that random people in a random road, wearing random green uniforms are 100% Russian spies getting ready to invade Estonia with 8 guys... LMAO

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Soggy-Buddy-641@reddit

There is any interest for anybody to do it

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jaimi_wanders@reddit

Also an Estonian article about this new “green men” sighting:

https://news.err.ee/1609827133/ppa-armed-russian-groups-seen-in-saatse-boot

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ABoutDeSouffle@reddit

Here is anarticle straight from Estonian TV.

New update: Foreign minister says international reaction is "exaggerated." New update: MFA: Situation remains calm and fully under control

The road in question: https://www.google.com/maps/@57.8963917,27.7357573,13z

Estonia built a road around that "boot", but people still use the direct one out of complacency.

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I saw a youtube video by simon whistler recently on the subject of how russia would likely try to test NATOs article 5 further by attacking Estonia. The logic being is that NATO wouldn't be willing to suffer the consequences of defending such a small country. I hope that NATO is willing to keep its word on article 5, but the way the world has been recently makes me wonder.

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Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit

That could back fire so easily. NATO would have so many options available, it's laughable that Putin would think he could get away with it.

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Nemisis_the_2nd@reddit

France is in political crisis.

The UK is looking at a far right majority in 2029, if not earlier, with the political left also determined to dismantly NATO.

Germany is going down the same road as those above.

Hungary is actively supporting russia at this point.

The US is unreliable and unpredictable.

Slovakia and Czechia are going the same way as Hungary.

Turkey wants to be its own regional power.

Spain doesnt give a shit what happens at the other end of the continent.

Portugal is kinda just quietly existing.

The only nations really taking the threat seriously, and are in a position to act long-term, are the Scandinavian and baltic states, and maybe Poland and Romania.

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ABoutDeSouffle@reddit

Germany just ordered 600 gun-based SHORAD, and the current federal government got voted in this year.

So, while there is danger from the right, Germany will most likely be a stable European player for the next 4y at least.

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AntiBoATX@reddit

No maybe about Poland, they’re armed to the fuckin teeth and watching every Russian move through 17 angles. They’re the biggest, mobilizable ground force to Russian aggression we will have in the next 36 months minimum.

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Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit

There's no individual veto mechanism for Article 5, and there are enough options other than boots on the ground and tanks rolling across borders.

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Slayers_Picks@reddit

NATO is rapidly falling apart. It is one hundredth of what it should or used to be.

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Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit

No country has ever left NATO.

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camperonyx@reddit

Yet. It really does feel like the work is forgetting the sacrifices made in ww2. So many countries are openly embracing authoritarianism.

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Playful_Possible_379@reddit

It'd be awesome to have Vlad the puta, be either, taken out by a drone or be tried like sadam

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Popular_Problem_6263@reddit

It would make nato look very weak if they didn’t and then Russia would just grow like the Nazis did

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Sxs9399@reddit

I think folks need to digest that article 5 isn't "send in troops", article 5 is a call to vote on if support is needed. And support could be here's a can of beans and a couple boxes of 5.56mm ammo.

I don't want to speculate further, because that feeds into Russia's game; but EU NATO members need to get their head out of their asses and take defense seriously.

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Malcolm_Morin@reddit

The problem with that is that if they vote no on support, and Russia takes Estonia, they won't stop with Estonia.

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Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit

I don't forsee Russia physically invading the Baltic states at this time. Granted Ukraine was bigger, but there was months of build up on the border leading up to the invasion, all under the guise of running drills.

Russia doesn't have the air defense assets to protect such an obvious build up of men and vehicles - they'd be slaughtered by Western air assets and pre-targetted artillery the second they'd set foot on NATO soil.

In lieu of an invasion, I could see drone strikes as an attempt to rattle the confidence of smaller nations. I don't want to speculate what I think NATOs response would be for OPSEC reasons but I'm confident it'd be proportional and a big problem for Russia.

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zaevilbunny38@reddit

Should Russia attack NATO, it won't be to take territory. It would be to freeze the fighting in Ukraine. Let's say they attack the Baltic states. It won't be just the Baltic. It would be thousands of missile and drones hitting European cities. Poland will get bogged down in kaliningrad. Once NATO pushes back Russia, China will step in with a cease-fire, freezing the Ukraine war and NATO going back pre-2025 borders. Russia gets it's territory and NATO has stood firm, abs European bureaucrats don't have to answer why air defense money was spent on interpretive dance studios, and other low return items.

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Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit

I think you're making an error associating an invasion of Russia as a likely response to a coordinated drone strike against NATO members.

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zaevilbunny38@reddit

Shahed drones have enough range to hit most of Europe from Russia. In the event of a conflict Russia will use the thousands of drones it has in storage to hit Europe. The Shahed drone can be launched from the back of a pick up truck. I have no idea why you would think Russia would not use this against Europe.

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Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit

I do think they may, but I also think they're terror weapons and not strategic or tactical.

What i was trying to say is I don't think NATO would use an invasion of Russia as they're response to a drone incursion of any scale.

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zaevilbunny38@reddit

Look at Ukraine, they have little natural gas, most of Kyiv just got back their power, and much of their electricity comes from the EU as Russia has destroyed their power plant. Russia knows were the weak points are and if they throw enough at a location, they will destroy it.

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Adventurous_Pen_Is69@reddit

At this point, the idiot leaders deserve to get thrown out. Somehow they’ve managed to convince their population that preparing for war isn’t necessary, and the idiots that vote for them are gobbling the narrative up like soup and voting for them because it feels good to say no to war and military spending.

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SpicyTyphus@reddit

That's not Article 5. This is Article 5:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

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EmojieOnly@reddit

So, just like they said? But theirs was paraphrased.

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GameSalesDirect@reddit

😂

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Striper_Cape@reddit

Y'all, this is why NATO forces are under the command of NATO officers, not their respective nations' command chain. This is purposefully done, along with mixing different alliance members supporting forces, to prevent member states from reneging

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Outrageous_Laugh5532@reddit

Uhh I think you have that backwards. Countries can always make their own decisions. The United States never places its military under command of anyone else.

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EmojieOnly@reddit

Yes they do.

I, an Australian, have had command of a large number of Marines. I said jump, they jumped. 🤷

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Outrageous_Laugh5532@reddit

And if their commander walked over and told you to kick rocks and for those marines to leave they would have. It an issue in Afghanistan everyone just did there own thing.

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Maxion@reddit

This is misinformation.

NATO is a defensive treaty meant to work as a deterrent for anyone to attack any member of the alliance.

The exact wording of the agreement, in many senses, does not matter. The spirit of the agreement and the trust that members will honor it is what matters.

NATO falls apart the moment member X gets attacked, but does not receive a defense.

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SaintMichael415@reddit

Estonia had an open border with Russia?

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jaimi_wanders@reddit

This is a section where the border loops back and forth, with a road straight through. Narva has been closed for a while already.

https://tvpworld.com/89423474/estonia-closes-road-through-russian-territory

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Snoo-72988@reddit

Narva is closed to car traffic not foot traffic.

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fragrant-final-973@reddit

Tom Scott video explaining the road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGjPn8V4O9E

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dennisrfd@reddit

Just now? Any sane country must close the borders with russia, china, iran, north korea, etc.

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justindub357@reddit

Heres a link to the video if anyone is interested https://youtu.be/4RhsczCCzXk?si=wQe3drTCiQAVEeQv