We could be looking at a Black Monday
Posted by NotDinahShore@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 238 comments
Dow closed down 878 points today. But futures continue down after the cash market close, currently down 1100+.
We all know that Artificial Intelligence stocks have been all the rage. This small group of stocks have essentially become a huge proportion of both the Nasdaq and SP500 in market capitalization, and the incredible gains they have made have propelled the indexes to spectacular highs.
Over the past two weeks, there has been increasing main stream conjecture that, perhaps, these same companies are basically “investing” the same capital among themselves, around and around. Like a circle jerk, or musical chairs if you prefer. Furthermore, the conversation is emerging that Trillions of dollars of capital investment will lead to tens/hundreds of Millions of dollars in profit. Maybe. And, further still, the equipment and infrastructure that all of that capital spending is going into, might likely age out in as little as four years.
Oopsie!
For any of us who have been around for a while, this AI mania has felt extremely reminiscent of the Internet/ecommerce bubble of 1995-2000. Yes, there are differences. But you know that saying that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes? Yeah. This rhymes.
In addition, the past two weeks saw the collapse of TriColor and First Brands. Both left no assets for creditors, which was a shock.
Private credit is 2025’s subprime. Watch Jefferies stock as an indicator of the collapse in private credit.
Once giga-mega-super duper bubbles pop, they go down. Way, way down. And the bubble has quite likely just popped.
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-investors-are-chasing-a-big-prize-heres-what-can-go-wrong-9a6bf37d
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/openai-nvidia-amd-deals-risks-rcna234806
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JEF/
Ok-Amphibian3164@reddit
Red October
JMurdock77@reddit
joeynsf@reddit
Red Five standing by....
CXavier4545@reddit
Redd Fox standing by
possibri@reddit
Big Red standing by
joeynsf@reddit
He gets it......
Not_Bound@reddit
Red October II: The Hunt is Over
RushBear@reddit
Give me a ping Vasily. One ping only!
Girafferage@reddit
Red two reporting in!
tymbom31@reddit
Wolverines!
Cloaked25@reddit
AVENGE ME!
are-e-el@reddit
The chair is by the door. John has a long mustache.
JackTheEagle@reddit
Wow deep pull… radio station?
Deus_is_Mocking_Us@reddit
The "John has a long mustache" line was a real radio message from WWII. It was a signal to the French Resistance that D-Day was imminent, so get ready to rise up.
So a deep pull of a deep pull!
JackTheEagle@reddit
Neat!
magnottasicepick@reddit
dumbdude545@reddit
I fucking hope not. But something could very well happen.
Money_Magnet24@reddit
Mortal Kombat !
nc-throwaway-@reddit
Star Child!
Waymoresbooze@reddit
I just heard a country song called “Dead October”
spinningcolours@reddit
Red tulip bulbs seem quite popular.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Immortal-one@reddit
The hunt is on
Gloom_Pangolin@reddit
You arrogant ass! You've killed us!
Miserable-Rooster-46@reddit
Buy Buy Buy!!! Or as Warren Buffett says, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful".
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
I've got several credentials and professional experience in markets, while I'm not certain you're wrong - real market catastrophes are almost by definition unpredictable. It's important to remember that the economy is not the securities market, and they are not in absolute sync. There are a lot of powerful interests that are already lobbying and adjusting policy (in the US particularly). Admittedly there are likely many powerful interests that would love to buy more of America cheaply, but that's a much tougher sell. While you are likely going to be eventually right (like me predicting a hurricane will happen again), a wise man once said that being early is the same as being wrong.
TheTendieMans@reddit
I would agree it's mostly unpredictable, but "The Big Short" is an example of a potential crash being predicted. While the exact same scenario has been legislated away, there is always the possibility of another similar/rhyming incident using the next most exploitable topic in today's era.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Yeah, but no offense to OP, he is likely not one of the people getting it right. im just saying statistically. I think many of the guys you're talking about the Big Short are brilliant. But because so many people missed it, or were incentivized to ignore it, the market crashed long after it "should have". If you don't have the capital of the Michael Burrys of the world, maybe be careful literally trying to predict the day. If OP was just saying that there will be a situation analogous to black Monday, I would understand, but I think the text might be confusing for laymen, and at best is ambiguous. To boot, there is also the problem of survivorship bias. How can you tell if someone got lucky without counterfactuals?
ScalyDestiny@reddit
What's served me well in life is to wait until everyone starts arguing about how we're not in a bubble, and then get rid of whatever thing those arguments were about.
TheTendieMans@reddit
Oh yeah, I agree with you and the other guy who responded. My entire point is that there is the possibility of predicting a crash and that it isn't 100% unpredictable, someone somewhere might get it right with the right set of data points. Not that OP is right. They could be, but we only have to wait a few days to know for sure.
I've got my year+ of dried meals and other food items + 55 years of water purification capability ready. Weapons too, just in-case things do indeed go south.
Dultsboi@reddit
The subprime mortgage crisis was legislated out but only for residential mortgages. The game kept going for commercial real estate and there’s very strong evidence that Covid and the reduction of commercial real estate almost triggered another 2009 style crisis
Biotic101@reddit
Also check Chinas ghost towns. Remember 1984. The US Broligarchy wants to implement the Dark Enlightenment and China might need an external enemy to keep people distracted from the economic development.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Didn't disagree. I'm just saying don't time it. Which, in a sense, is what prepping is all about
Biotic101@reddit
He used a rational and logic approach but the markets were irrational for so long he almost got destroyed waiting.
BombAtomically5@reddit
Didn't a very limited group of people get filthy rich because only a few could see the fault lines?
There are a lot of cracks forming, but the most visible ones are not as systemically catastrophic (AI,. venture capital,.private credit), even if they can cause a lot of pain won't wreck the system. Only our insane political landscape can do that now.
It's funny, the Big Short scenario was caused by a huge number people - hundreds of thousands. It started with greedy house flippers lying about their ability to afford houses, real estate and mortgage brokers, all the way through to wall street execs, with only a few people seeing the full scope of how it would all break.
Today, those that are most culpable probably number less than a thousand, and millions can see what is coming. I just wish we had the organization and power to avoid the inevitable collapse.
FatherOften@reddit
It was not house flippers.
It was everyday American Being sold into deserving a mortgage even if they couldn't afford it.
NoFee7023@reddit
Correct. It was a combination of people being duped into big loans they couldn't afford/dumb people knowingly taking on big loans they couldn't afford. Common theme (and important prep!) is financial literacy.
danvapes_@reddit
There were multiple stakeholders. One the government repealing Glass Steagall. Government pushing the narrative of home ownership. Banks and brokers who would write out loans of poor quality, banks then repackaging all those poor quality loans to make them AAA rated. Then they started repackaging the already repackaged bonds. People who were ill informed or willingly complicit in taking subprime loans and adjustable rate mortgages. Ratings agencies were also in on it with approving these instruments as AAA rated.
It wasn't until people started looking into what these securities contained did they realize what was slowly building up. The issues with the GFC started back during the Reagan era and continued on through the subsequent administrations.
CaliLocked@reddit
Barney Frank provided cover in the congressional hearings.
XCVolcom@reddit
I'd be very interested to hear who's "steering" this American ship away from catastrophe right now?
As far as I can tell a madman and his cult are at the helm and every foreign country keeps beating them at chicken despite the tariffs.
Immortal-one@reddit
Last time Orange Jesus and his cult steered us into a pandemic that cost something like $15 trillion since. (Somewhat made up number, but close as far as I can remember)
I have complete confidence he knows how to drop gas prices and have groceries go down on day 1.
Livid_Roof5193@reddit
Sorry, but I’m a little confused by your comment? Day 1 of what? We are months into the presidency?
Immortal-one@reddit
Sarcasm. The first part was about how he “handled” the pandemic.
Livid_Roof5193@reddit
Yeah sorry my 2 am brain did not pick up on that. My bad.
agent_flounder@reddit
Mine neither. Oops
captwillard024@reddit
It was sarcasm.
Livid_Roof5193@reddit
Oh haha r/woosh
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
I have no confidence in Trump. I'm emphasizing unpredictability rather than optimism.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Okay bet everything on red if you want to. I'm not saying any of this is good. Just giving my two cents on how predicting the timing of specifically securities market pullbacks. I agree the economy is in trouble. Another dynamic going on is the depreciation of the US dollar, so stocks might still hold value better than cash in a nightmare scenario.
dontgoatsemebro@reddit
Joe Rogan
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Money.
-Calm_Skin-@reddit
The members of this government are beholden to money for themselves. They do need plenty of bagholders tho.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
True, but you think Jamie Diamond, Elon, etc. are going to end up being the bag holders?
BombAtomically5@reddit
Nobody is steering, but there's so much excess liquidity in debt markets right now, that it has taken a while to break.
wanderingpeddlar@reddit
Sir I have zero credentials for market handling and stocks or international business.
I didn't stay in a hotel last night.
That being said unless TACO is being TACO this is about cutting of China from the US markets. So lets say TACO is not bluffing and is being butt hurt about China is refusing to sell rare earth metals to anyone that wont agree to not sell them to the US.
So its Nov 1 and everything coming out of China now has at least 100% tariffs on it.
China has already refused to buy soybeans in an effort to punish US markets.
We can see how that is effecting the farmers right now. Now spread that pain to the entire retail market. With the knock on effects. I mean there is a reason Walmart is called China mart. Will it be black Monday? No it won't. But with close to half the states in the country in a recession at the moment it could very well lead a depression.
The effects could be further reaching and more impactful then back Monday.
Also some people were saying Monday is a holiday for the market. If true the butchers bill will be presented on Tuesday morning. Either way their will be lots of volatility in the market for a while.
TheSWBomb@reddit
Look at big brain over here
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Thanks man. I'm really just trying to be helpful.
dermatofibrosarcoma@reddit
Please tell about those formulas
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
I am simplifying things for laymen. I could go through one of my CFA textbooks and put the formula here but I don't feel like it and have nothing to prove.
MountainGerman@reddit
Your response to the OP here was incredibly insightful and interesting to read. Thank you.
Biotic101@reddit
The problem is the huge amount of money being printed. It has been going into the markets for decades. Tether has copied the system for crypto.
There are studies investigating the correlation of the increase in Tether with crypto price. There is a documentary called "The Great Taking" where Webb describes how he made money watching money supply when working on Wall Street.
But eventually there is always a reset of the debt cycle. Roughly every 80-100 years it seems. And Webb describes how asset rights have been eroded in the last decades. Wonder how many here really understand "beneficial ownership" and the role of the DTCC...
There are many other factors to consider (like the current potentially widespread insider trading) so timing the markets is really difficult. And options are dangerous since moves tend to happen outside of market hours, time decay and possible pulling of the plug once shit really hits the fan.
So trying to make money from prepping for the worst case might just lose us money. It's more important to actually prep, if the worst case happens it will be a very different world out there.
DMsDiablo@reddit
That's always been the case of the market. I think we are likely to have to slow decline despite "growth" until we hit a sudden drop that point likely will just come out of nowhere from someone saying something offhand taken out of context and cascade from there(if were lucky(
truth_is_power@reddit
100% tariffs on china
bristlybits@reddit
it's raining men
hallelujah
Jguy2698@reddit
Wouldn’t a long enough history of prior booms and busts be somewhat more predictive at this point? We now have over a hundred years and a solid handful of historical precedents
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Not really, a few hundred years at best. It's the problem with all "soft" sciences, there are no counterfactuals. Imagine an sociologist trying to study how sociology impacted society. While I'm not saying it's entirely futile to try and learn, it is not a hard science. Another relevant example, there are a series of formulas that were extremely good at predicting whether a company was cooking the books, but that formula became less useful over time. I think you can guess why.
foo-bar-nlogn-100@reddit
90s bubble was in an era where US has just become the global hegemon and USD expanded its reserve status. So US tech and fiber optics were blue sky.
Now, AI bubble cant expand on a long time period because
Last bubble was 25 years ago and ppl still remember.
Information is designated faster.
Depreciation of GPU is faster than fiber optics.
Round tripping has already started to happen, implying low growth so they need to do this.
China is a peer rival for chips and AI. Web 1.0 bubble had no rivals. US dominated fiber optics.
So, i think the bubble pops faster and harder.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Yeah maybe, I'm just saying it is so unlikely for you to predict the exact timeline. So yeah, maybe it all comes crashing down, but whether that's next week or ten years from now, there are only a handful of people who can accurately predict it, and a handful more who will get lucky.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
Welp, futures are booming. Just a whipsaw apparently.
Somekindofparty@reddit
Trump will TACO. He’s already signaling he’s going to waffle. Buy the open.
hhh888hhhh@reddit
It might be called Black Tuesday this time since the market will be closed due to the holiday.
You should post in r/wallstreetbets or r r/stocks as well to get financial perspectives too.
Can you let me know more about how JEF plays a role in this?
ZealousidealShirt295@reddit
The call is coming from inside the house!
Anonplox@reddit
Business as usual Monday morning. All time highs.
SuitableWest6417@reddit
I think we have a serious problem, because China is apparently preventing the US from getting rare earth items from being exported to us. AI and our whole defense industry depends on rare earth (processed) materials.
Zealousideal-Print41@reddit
That's what happens when you decide to "offshore" or export all the important but "dirty" blue collar skilled, well paying jobs. And then decide hey we're going to say Fuck You!. Who are tou going to sell to besides us!?!?
China the rest of the world.......
Additional_Bluejay_9@reddit
Thank you
realcarmoney@reddit
Cars paid off and no credit card debt as of last month. Reserves in Money Market and Savings. Wife and I have stable jobs. We are ready to buy the dip for years/decades
My pension is one of the few public pensions that is fully funded and they had positive returns in 2008 due to being properly hedged
Only negative is I sold all my gold and half my silver to help on our new house down payment.
I've been called a conspiracy theorist for years.
This wil be the biggest I told you so of my life thus far. Can't wait.
I'll keep saving in the meantime.
Calls on pitchforks and guillotines
TraditionalLaw7763@reddit
I have no pension, no retirement… but I have a shit ton of gold and 5 rental houses. Will I survive all this?
Pleasant-Winner6311@reddit
Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan interviewed a few days ago said a crash is coming, similar to the dot.com crash.
TraditionalLaw7763@reddit
And they’ll buy the dips and make more billions…
haunting-pop-music@reddit
Is there a world where it benefits the over-extended AI types to burst the bubble AT China? Just thinking about the tariffs he just added in for Nov 1.
Jetfire911@reddit
Don't worry, I'm sure six fingered nudes on demand will save the economy.
Nordy941@reddit
This sub has been so alarmist and consistently inaccurate with these type of posts. The market is up so massively to the point where this small pull back doesn’t even begin to look like anything but natural.
I’ll likely load up on calls on Monday. Thanks guys for making this so apparent to me.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
Honest question: Yes, it is up massively. So, why would you “load up on calls” in a market already up massively?
For me, the change is that both NYT and WSJ within a day of each other, published articles calling the financial viability of AI capital investment into question. And the conversation has spread into the greater public discussion for the first time.
Retail just went on the biggest investment spree ever over the past month, and now have been punched in the nose.
What makes you think the bubble wasn’t just popped?
Nordy941@reddit
You seem to think this is the top of the market. Not sure why you guys think that. Hey if I’m wrong I’ll be the first to admit it but I’m buying calls on Monday for SPY short term maybe a couple weeks out and I plan to sell within a few days.
If it’s in the NYT you’re already way too late capitalize on anything they post.
When market drops a bunch in a day it creates a buying opportunity for everyone watching. Foreword thinking.
No panicking buy puts which seems to be what you suggest lol.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
I don’t suggest anything. I made my money and am happily retired and in money markets for the rest of my life.
I’ve been around and I believe the bubble just popped. It’s just for fun for me. Good luck.
papaswamp@reddit
Weekend for people to calm down. The big issue will be, banks are closed. So people caught on the wrong side of the trade on Friday, are frozen in place until Tuesday. What amazes me are the number of people claiming they got wiped out by the drop in crypto. Really? price is back where it was less than 2 weeks ago. These people must be doubling down each price shift.
No_Cauliflower_4017@reddit
leveraged long positions without a stop order got wiped is the problem. alot of people not protecting their investments and at one point we dropped alot, any 5x or higher leveraged position without a stop was gone completely and many more got margin called.
Jguy2698@reddit
Zoom out and you’ll see that the SP 500 is still up over 13% over the past year alone. 1100 points is nothing. If this is a true 08/09 crash, we have a loooong way to fall
catspongedogpants@reddit
the thing about that is that SP500 has a historical average gain of what, 8%? and its been way up in the double digits the last how many years?
No_Cauliflower_4017@reddit
historical average if broken up into smaller chunks like ten or twenty years is trending up over the last hundred years. 8% is irrelevant number now
Immortal-one@reddit
Just playing devils advocate here, but all market crashes start small….then all at once.
I personally don’t think it’ll be black Monday or even black 2025.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
All market fluctuations also start small.
Jguy2698@reddit
Me neither. Wealthy investors have tons of dry powder and the money printer runs full time
ThisIsAbuse@reddit
The Stock Market goes up and goes down, Crashes of up to 40-50% have happened in my life time, I was working in the actual dot com industry when that crash happened. My life did not change, but lots of folks suffered during during these events, and I remember the Great Recession of 2008 when I had two kids in the home and concerns about my job, but kept it when others did not.
However none of this felt to me like I feel now. Its like many things all at once - a series of dominoes. Its not just Tariffs and inflation, or possible AI bubble, its the dollar, the treasuries, the debt, the political division, constitutional rights, farmers going bankrupt, food issues, growing poverty, loss of hard labor, international isolation, and on and on and on......
I am more prepped then I have been, but wonder if all it is not enough.
tcrushingc@reddit
That's virtually impossible as the markets well be closed in Monday. Crisis averted nothing else to see here.. /s
Onyourmarkgetset100@reddit
Statistically speaking, when the vix jumps as much as it did on Friday, there is a 95% chance of an up day on one of the next two trading days. I personally think things will rebound on Monday (still a lot of people conditioned to buy the dip) and will then resume downward.
TheBrain511@reddit
Well I’ll be shorting the market come Monday between that and crypto related stocks
mwpdx86@reddit
Forgive my ignorance, I'm very much not a stonks bro, but what makes you think the bubble is popping? I thought the reason everything tanked today was cause trump said the 'T' word again. I've mostly only been following stocks since trump's second term and mostly just as a curiosity/keeping up on news.
I'm not at all saying it's not a bubble or that it's not popping, I'm just curious.
Also is this the kind of crash that makes house prices go down? Can we do one of those?
mortalitylost@reddit
As someone who works in tech close to this stuff, it's useful but it's not the trillion dollar genie that people like Sam Altman hype it up to be, and at this point it seems to be running off speculation and not what we actually use or have.
And it's looking more and more like the hardware constraints and costs are more an issue than software. You can't just have coders solve this, and it might need exponentially more compute to improve.
desuemery@reddit
I remain optimistic that the growing awareness surrounding the hardware and power limits we will experience to continue developing this tech will somehow lead to a breakthrough in quantum computing or nuclear fusion energy. From my layman's pov, that seems to be the only 2 ways this growth can be sustainable.
truth_is_power@reddit
ai bubble
chips come from china/taiwan
100% tariffs on china
now they just have to invade taiwan and it will be perfect
k7632@reddit
Now if China owns the minerals and semiconductors/parts they control after they take over Taiwan, how much of US economic growth is tied to AI?
Would the US push back hard against China/Taiwan and further risk no minerals from China?
truth_is_power@reddit
'ai' is a term for consumers, computers are already artificial intelligence. Cars drive themselves, anime waifus optional.
there are semiconductors in pretty much anything that uses electricity, for reference.
Plus all the manufacturing they do?
Machines, gears, car parts....everything from Amazon.
USA still selling Taiwan weapons. I don't they are going to let china just take it without...giving us something.
but now china has the upper hand in negotiations.
"we'll lift tariffs and let you have cheap shit if you give us taiwan and can build a golf course and hotel there"
probably all they need to offer T-bag in chief, imo.
k7632@reddit
So I am going to add to this question, but with China putting export controls in place globally and rumors of them ramping up to invade Taiwan...who makes a significant number of the chips....cause the potential ai bubble to burst and what would that do to the rat of market?
NuclearPopTarts@reddit
"China putting export controls in place globally"
This is what most people are missing. China just put export controls on the entire world. China put export controls on everyone reading this thread.
China put export controls on you.
Hard to say how this will resolve.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Interesting. I missed that
NuclearPopTarts@reddit
So, if you're living in, say Kansas and you make RC cars that use Chinese rare earths as a small magnet part and you want to sell an RC car to someone else in Kansas?
You need permission from China!
Same if you live in France, Australia, etc.
China just did a major power grab.
F6Collections@reddit
Just seems like a more restrictive tarriff with more paperwork and waiting time needed.
SurprisedWildebeest@reddit
The kind of crash that makes house prices go down is the kind where huge numbers of people lose their jobs, and then later get foreclosed on. So I hope we don’t do one of those.
jmnugent@reddit
I started investing for the first time in my life about a year ago (when the RDDT IPO invites went out). My stock portfolio is up about 75% since then. So I'm kind of meh, whatever. If the market drops 75%, I'll just go on a buying spree.
joe_URMOM@reddit
Isn’t the market closed Monday
PromotionStill45@reddit
Stock market is open, bond market is closed. Usual fed holiday office closures as well.
whoibehmmm@reddit
I'm so fucking exhausted. Everything just sucks.
AzureWave313@reddit
Literally. All I want to do lately is sleep. Mostly because all I usually do is work to keep my apartment and do my best to have some semblance of a life. Hey, I have a wife and two cats, that’s about the only thing that keeps me going anymore.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
Chin up fella
jjohnisme@reddit
He did it! He made it all better with one statement! /s
But really, my hats off to you, as that's about all we can do now.
Meta422@reddit
This.
catspongedogpants@reddit
best advice i try to remind myself when i feel this way is to get off the internet for a while. unfortunately, even doing that is a priviledge i have as a white guy, which is fucked.
F6Collections@reddit
You’re not tired of winning yet?
southatxbubba@reddit
Every damn thing, these boomers are the worse generation to ever live in modern human history
wardedmocha@reddit
I am surprised this comment isn't closer to the top.
AlfofMelmac@reddit
Is the market open Monday?
Infamous-Milk-4023@reddit
yes
rwastman@reddit
My bet is it will all be back by Tuesday.
EricSolairx@reddit
I think most agree that this market is over extended, indeed their could be a black monday, however the culture of buy the dip is also very strong, we will see wich one will win on monday. My guess is that buy the dip will win.
GlueSniffingCat@reddit
ill survive
Raddish3030@reddit
Wrong timing.
Market plunges next year leading into Midterms.
It's more politically useful that way.
Shoddy-Childhood-511@reddit
Oh, that's interesting, but useful for who?
Raddish3030@reddit
Does it matter?
You have a targeted time frame when it would behoove a powerful group of individuals to tank the economy for purposes motives unknown.
Set your chaos preps leading into next year.
But still prep for Tuesday
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
There are other bad people with power who don't want that to happen.
Raddish3030@reddit
The point is. That you need to figure out whose political interests align with your economic interest.
Preserve power and gain power = keeping economy afloat
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
I'd think itd be more useful for the GOP to let it tank after the midterms
miffyonabike@reddit
What should I do about it, if anything?
ARazorbacks@reddit
The AI bubble looks a whole lot like the dotcom bubble. All those “articles” talking fear of AI taking jobs are basically sponsored marketing for AI stocks. The bubble is going to pop and it’s going to ripple across everything, at least in the tech sector. Just as an example “outside the AI space” you’ve got major memory vendors swapping huge chunks of their floor space to datacenter memory. What happens when that demand dries up overnight?
Obviously I‘m just some rando internet guy and this is just my opinion.
dittybopper_05H@reddit
You mean Black Tuesday, right? Markets are closed on Monday for the federal holiday.
Can’t even get that right.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
You’re the own who is wrong. Stock market is open Monday. Bond market is closed Mr Big Brain.
Expert-Joke9528@reddit
So my AI investment is safe
Vegetable-Board-5547@reddit
AI is where the internet was 20 years ago: they're still trying to figure out how to monetize it. There will be shake out for sure.
Remember when AOL, Yahoo, and Netscape were unstoppable?
Otherwise, the market gets corrections from time to time. Crashes happen about every 8 - 10 years.
2dazeTaco@reddit
Didn’t believe it until I saw it. That said, points mean nothing, it’s the percentages you need to look at. Personally I think it has everything to do with trump mentioning tariffs.
Either way, great time to be a precious metal investor. The stock market has been over inflated by the continual devaluation of the USD and rampant inflation. It’s well overdue for a correction.
thejoymonkey@reddit
If there is a major down turn, precious metals will get hit just as much initially.
Interesting_Bowl_289@reddit
“Initially”. When the bubble bursts….
I will keep the “physical” & stay “below the radar”.
Quick_Step_1755@reddit
Isn't that just people selling to cover calls? Everything (except PMs) is just debt and more debt.
2dazeTaco@reddit
Maybe so, but PM’s are a hedge against inflation. And long term will retain their value better than the USD. They may take a slight hit, but long term they’re a much better investment than the dollar.
Comfortable_Clue1572@reddit
The Dow is a poor indicator. It’s very narrow. You hear about it frequently because it’s volatile. That makes for lots of headlines.
Icy-Union5743@reddit
Couldn’t agree more with the PMs.
I track my investments religiously. One bit of data I’ve tracked is the growth of the different buckets my wife and I’s retirement savings are in, one of which is PMs.
Even though there is substantially more $$$ in the other buckets (401k, 457, roths), after the beating today the PMs have had better returns not by percentage but by just number of dollars since “liberation day”.
2dazeTaco@reddit
Same here, I’m pretty diversified. I’d say 70% in 401k which invested in mostly ETF’s and dividend stocks across the board. 25% PM’s, and 5% crypto.
I’m only at about 14% return YTD in stocks, whereas my PM’s are around 62%. Crypto seems to have bounced back, but I’m between 1-3% across the board with them.
No_Design958@reddit
Bond trader here. Correct, the move was a reaction to the additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods
CriticalProtection42@reddit
That's what my money is on too, it's a reaction to the rare earth metal and tariff dispute.
AdventurousRun7636@reddit
I see a move to put all US debt into crypto, then wipe it.
thehourglasses@reddit
I’ll just leave this here…
spinningcolours@reddit
So it’s modern check kiting.
jjohnisme@reddit
Yeah but when we do it, they call it "balance transfers" and we get charged interest.
hallofgamer@reddit
20% world spending is ecommerce how the fuck was that a bubble?
Amazon says hi
thandrend@reddit
Historically October is the worst month.
Couple that with stupid economic actions, political actions and a government shutdown? I anticipate the rest of the month will be brutal in the economy. We're already in a recession, even if unemployment and stock market levels don't suggest it.
The poor and middle classes in the US are already strapped.
hardware__@reddit
I work in tech and AI is 100% a circlejerk at this point. Very few companies have a path to profitability when it’s time to start charging the real costs of “AI”. It’s just a stock pump right now
Comfortable_Clue1572@reddit
He who shall not be named could just as easily say something, on TACO Tuesday perhaps, with the opposite effect. If only there was a term for this previously observed phenomenon.
Shot calling the next market crash is notoriously difficult. I agree with the sentiment that being prepared is a long term strategy. Winter is coming. The probability that ice storms or high winds will cause power outages is virtually 100% in the next 24 months.
Remember that preparation is frequently achieved with diversification. Most folks are in the equities market for retirement purposes. Are you diversified? Are you adaptable?
Although electricity, cable, & fiber all run on poles within 200 yards of me, all the gas infrastructure is underground and the compressors run on gas. I have a backup generator that burns only (natural) gas. Loss of electricity is a certainty so I prepare for it.
vtsandtrooper@reddit
Ok go ahead and short MSFT and AMZN and NVDA see how well that goes for you
pintord@reddit
Best to put some of your fiat into genuine stable coins. In your hands.
bikumz@reddit
Isn’t Canada also the lowest it’s been in a month, some saying it may continue to drop for a year low?
pintord@reddit
The $CDN is dropping because oil is dropping.
gedden8co@reddit
They mean 1oz silver coins.
Gbeto@reddit
the picture is an ounce of silver
bikumz@reddit
Haha I’m an idiot! Saw Canada and thought hold up
Gbeto@reddit
the picture is an ounce of silver
MsCalendarsPlayaArt@reddit
CANADIAN COINS HAVE A BEAUTIFUL MAPLE LEAF ON THEM?!! 😭😭😭
LupusDeiAngelica@reddit
And in a few months that coin might buy you a bean.
scott32089@reddit
I think you are mistaken, not adjusted for inflation silver per oz just hit ATH. Was - since I started in 2016 - an absolutely horrible investment vs pretty much everything else. The last 2 months have leveled the playing field significantly.
Currently can buy 100lbs of rice at Costco for the cost of 1 coin, or as you put it, 50 pds of dry pinto beans.
nw342@reddit
When I buy silver, its not an investment. Its "when the dollar is worthless, at least I have something that has value"
Magickarpet76@reddit
Yeah, I see precious metals less as an investment in the metal, and more of a hedge against fiat. It is like locking your wealth in place. An ounce of gold buys a nice suit. It has been true for centuries and still seems accurate today.
That is why I am paying close attention with prices taking off. It is clear others are also thinking more in freezing their wealth which shows market sentiment. It also in many ways shows the weakening of the dollar.
Immortal-one@reddit
Silver is $50 and gold is $4k? Seems I missed the run up - haven’t been paying attention throughout the entire Biden years. You know…stability.
ArbysLunch@reddit
Have you looked at soybean prices lately?
Farmers will be fighting each other to give you buckets of soybeans for that soon enough.
LupusDeiAngelica@reddit
Not when every Joe Bob and his uncle break out their "safe from fiat stash."
Thunderclone_1@reddit
A dollar maybe, but an ounce of silver has more stable value.
Sad-Bonus-9327@reddit
Black Monday and already forgotten on Thursday
AnomalyNexus@reddit
The SP500 is basically back to where it was a month ago.
Sharp drop for sure, but doesn't feel like a crash (yet)
sziehr@reddit
The crash vibe is markets are closed futures are plummeting that’s cash that can get out getting out in secondary market actions. The second issue is the president just yo-yo his last it feels like the market is done with the taco game he plays for him self or his friends. We are now in a find out phase of all of this and the agg economy is done, manufacturing is done , service economy is in tatters and the last biggie tourism is absolutely cooked. So the real economy under the paper shuffle on Wall Street has been bad for months and getting desperate in response to these foolish tarrifs.
AnomalyNexus@reddit
Yeah there is trouble coming - just don't think this is it.
...yo-yo back to same levels by Friday
Honest_Persimmon_859@reddit
Yeah, but after Black Monday comes Taco Tuesday...
FeelingTap7455@reddit
Can you elaborate more on your “circle jerk/musical chairs” mashup? Really lost focus on the economy collapsing after thinking about this new game you’ve invented. Seems like a fix for the money troubles anyway.
Reptilian_Brain_420@reddit
Corrections happen and they are not a bad thing.
Also, a lot of people take profits before the holiday season.
None of this is terribly unusual and it isn't any sort of sign of any fundamental shift.
BigTiddyVampireWaifu@reddit
The more I read about it, the more this is looking like the biggest pump and dump scheme the world’s ever seen
EspressoStoker@reddit
That's pretty much what April's Liberation Day was. Time to do it again!
RustDeathTaxes@reddit
Don't blame me. I voted for the lady.
ViciousSemicircle@reddit
The bubble conversation is right and wrong. Yes there are bubbles within AI. No the entire AI industry is not a bubble.
The dot com bubble we built on speculation - if you build it they will come. Pets.com was an assumption with a gargantuan IPO. Now imagine pets.com going public when they were live with millions more users than they could handle. If that were the case, they would have done well.
In other words - the market is bonkers, we’re going to see some big winners and some massive nose-dives, and stay the fuck away from quantum.
DonBoy30@reddit
These billionaires are throwing so much dough into LLM’s to create data centers across the country while receiving a shit ton of pushback by residents. I really don’t know how sustainable all of this is when about the only unifier right now in the country that’s not being reported on is the visceral response by common people who live in areas where data centers wish to destroy and raise electricity costs.
Jguy2698@reddit
It’d be a good buying opportunity if you’re young enough and have a little cash to throw at it though
Pontiacsentinel@reddit
Dollar cost averaging. Boring but important.
exbusinessperson@reddit
Wallet is ready bro
catspongedogpants@reddit
look into "Opex" ... when large open interest options expire, tends to be toward the middle of each month, wacky volatility can happen. and people trade volatility itself, which can exacerbate things.
distinguished25@reddit
Market is one Truth Social post from going parabolic the other direction.
wastedsanitythefirst@reddit
This is a super valid point that many people don't think of or factor in. We might even invade one of our strongest allies tomorrow morning but by noon we are just introducing 18583640% tariffs on their products but no wait by dinner we are suspending the tariffs for now and by the next morning it's back to the beginning again or something equally stupid.
Jguy2698@reddit
Yeah I don’t think you’re wrong. People underestimate the sheer pile of cash many wealthy investors are sitting on waiting for the littlest dip to enter. If anything, I think stocks can run up tenfold from here as there is no end in sight to the fed money printer
UND_mtnman@reddit
Nah, too many people still solvent, which means the market will remain irrational.
Separate_Fold5168@reddit
Solvency can wildly change given a... catalyst
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
What is the difference between predicting prices and predicting catalysts?
AldusPrime@reddit
So, I'm assuming that the market is inflated to the tune of ≈40%.
That being said, I'm a Boglehead, so I always just invest in total market index funds anyway. I do that, like clockwork, whether the market is up down or sideways.
The only difference is that I've switched from 70%US/30%international to 60%US/40%international, which is closer to world market weight.
texas130ab@reddit
There will have to be something AI related for the AI bubble to pop. Friday's crash had nothing to do with AI . It is horrible government policy.
TheSWBomb@reddit
We can only hope
EraseAnatta@reddit
So calls on qqq? Got it.
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
Do it!
BasalGangOrDie@reddit
So much AI fud in here. We’re rallying back to Wednesday levels when market opens
mortalitylost@reddit
The insanity i see from the tech world is just too fucking much. They really act like it's going to replace people and eliminate a human workforce, but that's basically just the hype Sam Altman and Anthropic sell to cause their stock prices to explode.
It was only a matter of time until the investors realize they weren't going to get what they were promised. AI is useful... but it's not the workforce they were promised. It's just another tool that they might use to help train people and generate data, data that isn't even always trustworthy.
ChromeAstronaut@reddit
BMW is testing an AI robot currently that works with no mistakes for 10 hours on an assembly line.
It’s much closer than you think lol.
mortalitylost@reddit
I'm not shocked that factories are getting more automated, but that's not the lie they're selling. They act like we won't need software developers and similar skilled labor, and pretend they're thiiiiis close to completely eliminating the worker class.
Adorable-Till-9112@reddit
I kind of think the dividing line will be how high risk a profession is. Wrong order at a restaurant? You can fix it. Bad legal advice? You might get suee because a machine broke and you can't fire it.
mortalitylost@reddit
Yeah, that's part of it definitely. Hallucinations are built in and it doesn't mean they're always wrong, but you need them to be able to be wrong where they're used. You can add guard rails and such, but that's part of it... you still need humans working on them and designing guard rails even when you make heavy use of the technology.
They haven't eliminated software jobs. They made seniors more productive sometimes, but they're not replacing them. I dont even think they're replacing juniors like people say either. They're just making people more productive in several ways.
I would not be surprised if lawyers use them similarly and end up being more productive as long as they double check everything, but you need experts to know what to double check.
I worked with a guy who vibe coded this entire application, golang backend and typescript frontend. He said, "it clearly isnt ready to replace backend engineers, but wow it really replaces frontend devs!" I have done more frontend work than him, so I took a look. It looks clean and well structured at first then I notice half of it is completely broken...
AI is really good at tricking people who don't have the higher level skills to see when it's wrong. That's where the hype is i think. They tricked a lot of investors and managers who think it already can do a job it can't.
Crocs_n_Glocks@reddit
Wait what?!? You're telling me that they are going to replace automotive assembly line workers with some sort of.....machine?!!?
Oh my god...AI is truly revolutionary.
Crocs_n_Glocks@reddit
It's going to be cool and useful for research, customer service and content generation but nowhere near a good return on the trillions and trillions being invested.
It's funny how literally every big name telling us that AI will pay off is financially dependent on AI paying off.
robertovertical@reddit
Dumbo crashing it. Saudi and merited will go long futures. Rinse and repeat. MAGA needs crash. It will lower rates. Cause inflation. But headline will be low rates.
MovinOnUp2TheMoon@reddit
Can’t easily get you a link, but i totally recommend spotify, apple, etc.:
PLAIN ENGLISH podcast recently had a very interesting episode on this issue of the MONEY in this sector. HUGE portion of many major metrics.
Derek Thompson hosts the podcast "Plain English," where he discusses important topics in tech, culture, and politics with clear viewpoints and memorable takeaways. New episodes are released weekly, featuring interviews with experts and engaging discussions on current issues.
CyroSwitchBlade@reddit
Isn't Monday and Federal holiday tho?? Will the stock markets even be open on the 13th??
GrannysLilStinker@reddit
My guess when I see crypto markets taking a plunge like they’re taking now is someone needed liquidity to not fail a margin call.
_islander@reddit
I had a feeling last week. Been prepping for a market crash and yesterday sold all my stocks, bought gold and low volatility stocks. If there’s a crash, I’ll feel like again genius
NOrthFACE9@reddit
I literally have an absurd amount of $ betting that you’re wrong
Immortal-one@reddit
Luckily I don’t have to retire for another couple decades.
Majestic-Bowler-6184@reddit
Well, damn, isn't -2% alone sufficient to rock the market on a standard day?
defiCosmos@reddit
You mean Black Tuesday
claimstoknowpeople@reddit
Monday is not a market holiday https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars
defiCosmos@reddit
No shit
DianedePoiters@reddit
Trumps going to TACO
sancatrundown73@reddit
Government will prevent it.
prince_peepee_poopoo@reddit
Isn’t the market closed on Monday?
claimstoknowpeople@reddit
No, it's open https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars
PrezzNotSure@reddit
Tuesday*
Monday is a holiday
MrWhitePink@reddit
Not a stock market holiday
PrezzNotSure@reddit
See my reply below
NotDinahShore@reddit (OP)
Stock market is open on Monday. Bond market is closed.
PrezzNotSure@reddit
God I hate Google search now...
Important-Wrangler98@reddit
ok
Super901@reddit
Was waiting for this. Took a minute
SamWest98@reddit
AI != dotcom. AI is controlled by the capital holders and required billion of $ in infra to pull off. Nothing like 2000
kite13light13@reddit
That’s why crypto is the way to go.
Peyote-Rick@reddit
I'm a supporter of BTC, but it'll likely go down with stocks initially (if there's a crash).
Separate_Fold5168@reddit
It also goes down with an EMP blast.
In Canned Beans We Trust 🫘
Ok-Amphibian3164@reddit
And gold.
No-Fail7484@reddit
Rump is preparing to bounce Th market for profit. If you have cash watch what he says. If he says “now is a good time to buy stock” and you think he is crazy invest. Then he ell flap nonsense and up goes the value!!👀. Then give it one or two days then sell. Then he will decide not to do something and down goes the market but you bought low and sold high. Rump is telling people his game.
Namik_One@reddit
More like the nifty fifty's bubble than the dot com