The AI bubble is the only thing keeping the US economy together, Deutsche Bank warns | When the bubble bursts, reality will hit far harder than anyone expects
Posted by Inside_Gate_3582@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 151 comments
Allianya@reddit
I'm going to continue to spread my theory because I'm full of myself but someone needs to be brave enough to predict what the craziest people on the planet are planning.
The AI bubble started by OpenAi's Sam Altman, funded by his kinda mentor Peter Thiel. Is an act of economic terrorism against wallstreet and the USD itself. It's a deliberately manufactured bubble with devestating consequences. You can find an old blog post by Altman in 2020 where he step by step outlines how to manufacture a tech bubble. Then 2022 he does the exact thing he planned with OpenAI starting the insane bubble.Peter Thiel called Chatgpt 1.0 a mini bubble in 2016 because LLMs are not capable of true artificial general intelligence. So why did he go all in on open AI in 2022 actually trying his reputation to something for the first time in a long time? He's all in but why?Cryptocurrency is the only way I can make sense of it. If your goal is to force cryptocurrency like the USD1 stable coin that exists in the balance sheets of the Trump coin people....
Here's how I see it working.AI + debt crisis causes massive bank failures when the reality that openAi will never be profitable becomes public and the assets immediately depreciate causing a bank run as margin calls chain react 2007 style.Markets looks like they're dead, horrible day, then part 2 kicks in. Stocks paradoxically start skyrocketing the other direction.
24-48 hours for the billionaires to secure their long term position, exchange their USD and buy in at a ground floor of the new crypto
Vance then announces his pet project, USD1 stable coin. He's the Peter Thiel puppet that allows him to be the good cop to sell us on crypto while Trump destroys the economy by just doing what Trump thinks is best. It will be sold the same way China has sold their new Fiat kinda crypto currency has been. It'll be optional, easy to use, and probably some carrot way to make MAGAIDIOTS short term the wealthy class.
Then they just continue to methodically deconstruct the US government until any and all faith in the USD itself is dead and it's hyperinflation suddenly makes Vance's stupid crypto pet project look like a genius move. As if it hasn't been a carefully orchestrated con from the beginning.
I hope I'm wrong, but I have a weird special interest around Thiel and his PayPal mafia nightmares
LupinePariah@reddit
I think it's just that they're charismatic, unintelligent, and they have a killer-instinct. The majority responds well to this so they'll go along with whatever dumb that greedy Dark Triad goblins are peddling. It's why we keep having bubbles and collapses.
I don't think it's worth attributing this to aught more than stupidity. It's giving them too much credit and assuming that they're clever enough to know what they're doing. The real problem, as I see it, is figuring out how to counter the mechanism where people choose to fit in with impossible degrees of stupidity thanks to the aforementioned mixture of charisma and a killer-instinct.
OneTripleZero@reddit
This would have been a good place to actually link that blog post. You say there's receipts, why not bring them?
Allianya@reddit
Kk 1 sec, get this, I don't provide receipts so I can have plausible deniability in defense for speaking truth to power
https://blog.samaltman.com/hard-startups
Plus the less I reveal about what I actually have the better. I also encourage everyone to research these fucks themselves instead of taking my word for it.
If you're going to take on the richest men in the world as an individual you gotta keep your cards close to your chest until you have your ducks in a row. Now if I get suicided, no one knows what I have shared where I have shared it and who will blow the whistle if I disappear.
Something something disruption those silicon valley dip shits are all about
Far-Air8177@reddit
No offense but you're almost definitely not remotely important enough for anyone to bother to suicide. No one cares what some redditors have to say. In countries like China or Russia where "suicides" are common it only ever happens to important people with wealth, followers and some kind of power or influence. Not to some random nobodies on the internet. (China actually arrests significantly less people for speech than the Uk or Germany).
Everyone wants to think their important but in truth very few select people are actually important enough that the powers that be need to get rid of them.
LupinePariah@reddit
This is one of the truths of humanity I loathe the most.
It almost feels like for the average person, the drive for reward is getting pathologically high. I kind of wonder if Covid-19 played a part in this as it blunted the system of reward.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10028216/
A bit of an eye-opening read.
The thing is is that the reason we have MAGA, QAnon, flat earthers, and so on is because it's top-tier reward to be a part of some consensus where everyone feels special, where everyone is patting each other on the back for being there, fitting in, and being superior to the normies or whatever other group.
And if those who were prone to reward-chasing are having even less trouble reaching their end-point of experiencing it? It's going to exacerbate underlying conditions and it might cause an uptick in schizophrenia. I mention that as I believe this is the cause here, where Covid-19 has exacerbated this person to a degree of schizophrenia. Professionals may not be connecting Covid-19 yet with sudden-onset schizophrenia, but that'll hopefully change.
Footnote: Dopamine has nothing to do with pleasure, only the sensation of culminative reward. It's that "I did it right, now I want to do it again." feeling that can lead to gambling addictions. Also, dopamine can be released for anything the psyche perceives as reward, even self-harm, so it isn't a system that necessarily encourages people to do good, either. It's literally just reward—and schizophrenia is a case of it going really wonky.
Allianya@reddit
Sure. Let's go with that. Someone kill me I fucking dare you
Bromlife@reddit
Can you please explain how this post is explaining how to manufacture a tech bubble?
OneTripleZero@reddit
It doesn't at all. This is just noise.
Unfortunate too because I was hoping it was some out-in-the-open nefarious plot.
Bromlife@reddit
Taking a quick look at their profile is illuminating. They’re definitely off their meds.
Allianya@reddit
Yeah some fucking asshole psychiatrist cold turkey all my meds. Idk my reality seemed so real, it felt like I was getting jerked around constantly.
I'm trying to get it fixed but the docs just don't know what's wrong with me. I'm an unspecified psycho now.
salabim3@reddit
I don't think this person is well in the head.
Allianya@reddit
Im not and perhaps it's because I'm not well I can see something you can't. But don't worry about it
deinterest@reddit
You sound like my brother during mania. Take care of yourself
Allianya@reddit
I know I do. That in fact was the point of everything I have done over the last month. Prove that I can appear manic while having a rational backing logical method to my madness the entire time. I might've really fucked up someones plans in the process and they know they can't kill me cause I've been planting the seeds of Martyrdom. Not yet sure who it was trying to get me to stoke the divides of revolt. But they miscalculated when they chose this bitch.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UnspecifiedPsychos/
Bromlife@reddit
Like a hallucination?
Allianya@reddit
Lol who knows I by definition wouldn't you can prove or disprove my reality but will it make you feel better if you can discard everything I say because I'm damaged?
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
Just look at bitcoin, it’s insane
Allianya@reddit
Yeah 2 months ago I was literally ignored by everyone as crazy. Just because I'm a crazy person doesn't mean my opinions are invalid... I'm kinda uniquely capable at digging up this dirt because I'm so crazy nothing scares me.
I have a fucking self aware Messiah complex and I'm trying to use it just to stop the insanity that is the PayPal mafias world domination plans. Which are embarrassing, and so terriblely written I don't blame anyone for not having read it. It's exhausting....
But yeah, I figured out the entire gameplan even the when 2-3 months ago and have had to just watch the shitberg coming.
At least I was wrong about 9/11, that's when I predicted the market rug pull would be. I tried to get the message out there and it didn't happen. That was a coincidence and I probably just had a better plan in my mind than the evil people if they didn't pull the trigger then. Either way, these people are literal psychos and you gotta be very broken to read their manifestos without wanting to kill yourself or become a doomsday prepper.
Tsiah16@reddit
So sell my house and leave the country. Got it.
Allianya@reddit
Yes, take the word of a single crazy person on the internet and base all of your decisions on it. It's 2025 that is the status quo isn't it.
Tsiah16@reddit
No, but I was already leaning that direction. If it weren't for child custody issues, I would have probably gone already.
ThatEvanFowler@reddit
lol, I love how self-aware you are. All of this sounds extremely plausible to me. I've been trying to figure out the plan for a while and this is the best version I've heard. Or, most likely, I guess. Best doesn't exist anymore.
MistyMtn421@reddit
To add to that, one of the trends seems to be abolishing property tax. Which on the surface makes absolutely no sense. Who is going to pay for roads and schools and everything else that property tax funds? Good question right?
Well the theory is, they know everybody is about to go broke, there will be a lot of foreclosures, especially on the big farms, which Vance has a company that is apparently buying up a lot of those farms. One of the big pushes is in Ohio right now where he is a former senator. That land will be extra cheap if there are no back property taxes to pay. So will all the foreclosed housing. They can knock all those houses down and build all the data centers that they want.
jacktacowa@reddit
They’ll find a place for some of their dystopian corporate city-states on that land, maybe rent out lots for ppl to put their tents.
Allianya@reddit
Ooo I hadnt found this connection but just another confirmation to me. Vance is the Greenland iirc too. He wants the cold and geothermal power for his crypto currency dreams.
Allianya@reddit
A big part of what I'm trying to do is basically Monty Python not the Messiah to mock these fucking men and their messiah comorlxed
Future-Cancel-8015@reddit
Which manifesto is this?
Nadie_AZ@reddit
Not sure. Is this it?
https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian/
Allianya@reddit
That's one of them. There are so many scattered across the Internet.
Part of the magic of Silicon Valley is that people default to taking you seriously if you’re willing to be serious—they’ve learned it’s a very expensive mistake, in aggregate, not to. If you want to start a company working on a better way to build homes, gene editing, artificial general intelligence, a new education system, or carbon sequestration, you may actually be able to get it funded, even if you don’t have a degree or much experience. https://blog.samaltman.com/hard-startups
I wonder how long it'll take for him to delete it now that I've gone public. Don't worry Sam I've made tonnes of copies you fucking moronic hack
CosmicButtholes@reddit
You are what happens when people channel their schizo-adjacent powers in a healthy way for the good of humanity. Thank you for your research and insight!
Allianya@reddit
I'm trying. If I'm going to be damaged by society so bad I can't function in society I'm determined to make space for myself and hopefully use my damage for good.
toxictoy@reddit
This is such a good theory. Thank you for this.
We can also use our collective power against them in a general strike. This needs to be shared as often and as much as possible. They try to split us up into tribal factions of ever increasingly small sizes because the powers that be know that if we all got on the same page there is nothing they could do to stop us from making real and lasting change. https://generalstrikeus.com/. We need to do this while our labor still has value and before AI has a chance to replace millions of jobs.
You can stay at home so you don’t have to be subjected to the counter measures they always employ to make peaceful protestors look terrible via the media. Literally the general strike is the ultimate protest. Sit home, read a book/play with your kid/sit outside (etc) and don’t participate in the economy earning or spending anything.
Allianya@reddit
Thank you. Also I'm going to plug my bluesky @allieina
I figured out some CRAZY shit about the human condition last night and I want to share it with the world because it could change how we view ourselves.
toxictoy@reddit
Thank you so much! You are a bright and beautiful spirit. Don’t let the bastards get you down. :)
Allianya@reddit
Heh, I thrive under pressure. The idea that someone is always get to out me is literally how I'm able to function with my trauma. I might be the first person trauma aware enough to admit they literally use the concept of the man as a way to function.
That and I'm determined to out crazy this entire planet. Talk to me or fear me.
toxictoy@reddit
Love it. I think we are kindred spirits :)
jibrilmudo@reddit
I question this oft-repeated dogma and I’m starting to feel as cope.
Geoffrey Hinton says the history of LLMs was people saying it will never do this or that, and it surpasses these supposed limits only to find people confidently draw a new line in the sand.
I can give ChatGPT5 riddles I haven’t seen anywhere else afaik since I make them up, but more often than not it can solve them. Idk if that means my riddles are easy or if CGPT5 is good, but still.
This video demonstrates several places CGPT5 shines and is doing real work, such as helping writing post-Graduate papers where the author gets stuck on a part and would normally have to think on it for a week but the AI can do it in 20 minutes. Etc.
It’s not hype but even keel but still amazing to me:
I’m not saying that LLM’s or end-all be-all the of artificial intelligence, but I think we’re deluding ourselves a bit on how far it can or can’t go. And that if a different conceptual model is required, then we as a species, will chase it too.
Allianya@reddit
So what you are mistaking is a language model being good at speaking to you with intelligence. LLMS are super cool, I'm building an app around one right now.
The reason programmers say they cannot be artificial intelligence is for the same reason Peter Thiel said so in 2016. It just isn't that type of technology. It cannot think, it cannot make branching decisions. Behind the scenes it's kinda like if you used probability to speak. Each word out of your mouth instead of coming from your brain, came from a random number generator. You would string together words in a way that's unique but somehow even crazier than I.
It's still a mind blowing technology, just the use cases for this specific interpretation of AI using LLM is basically the least efficient way to do Artificial intelligence. Augmented intelligence I've seen some people claim and that's a much better explanation, just doesn't sell as well.
jibrilmudo@reddit
How does it solve puzzles I invent if it was just predicting words?
NoHuckleberry2543@reddit
I say that when it happens we should all switch to bottle caps just to piss them off. The new ~~gold~~ soda standard.
Allianya@reddit
Lol, or just destroy some warehouses full of gpus and their entire plan just doesn't work. It's going to fail so many different ways it's not even funny. But I think it's bullshit no one tells us what's actually going on. Like we're adults. We can handle nuance, but no we only get fed horseshit through mainstream media and coded messages through art. Or maybe I don't know I'm insane
NoHuckleberry2543@reddit
Some of us are adults who can handle nuance, but unfortunately, fewer than we'd like.
Allianya@reddit
But we force nuance into the shadows, profit motives hate nuance, rage sells, hate sells, anger sells. We do not sell, intelligence does not sell. Crazy sells, crazy is a hot commodity in 2025, just you know if you are 50+, white, a man, and were born on 3rd base. Then crazy is a fiery hot commodity.
NoHuckleberry2543@reddit
Hate may sell but intelligence adapts and lasts.
Allianya@reddit
Yup, sometimes you have to out crazy your own intelligence to get a point across. Or something, who knows my mind is crazy.
Diablo_r@reddit
Just put the fries in the bag bro
Allianya@reddit
Insert rat race gif I'm ecentric here
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
works cited (crack pipe)
Allianya@reddit
Yup. I'm a crazy bitch don't worry about a word I say
Burial@reddit
Do you think reading a bunch of conspiracy forums and regurgitating it into a semi-coherent narrative is some kind of special power? You aren't self-aware, at all, and if anything you're making things worse by collating worthwhile information with a bunch of nonsense in a completely unhinged way, which ends up making it more unlikely that normal people will take the nuggets of worthwhile information seriously. Its called poisoning the well.
Allianya@reddit
I haven't read conspiracy forums. Like I just haven't. I found every single thing I talk about through my own investigation after hearing about Peter Thiel through behind the bastards while trying to figure out why my personal scam radar was blaring at AI.
A radar that was blaring because I have almost 10 years experience as a self taught it consultant for the commercial insurance industry. I don't even know where to start in terms of conspiracy forums.
Besides my #1 message is I hope I'm fucking wrong and welcome being proven wrong.
awsompossum@reddit
I appreciate that you think anyone is getting put 'on the radar' for some random posts on reddit. Even if what you said is true (and based on your sources, it is not far on the cogency continuum), the only thing that would actually draw attention is if you were somehow getting traction at the level of millions of views. You have described yourself to be self aware, but you are exhibiting classic grandiose narcissism.
Allianya@reddit
Lol, I said I'm crazy, I literally can't think another way than the way I think. Like yes, you're right, however I do have genuine reasons to believe I'm on a radar because I well put myself up n the radar through shit I did in the start of September.
Which by coincidence (Im 99% sure) got me a long grippy sock vacation where I was gaslit into think everything I had investigated and has sources/evidence for. Literally 3 months of my life was as me being delusional. If I wasn't broken brained enough before that point I sure as shit am now.
It's a long long weird wild story. I don't care that much, I'm a deeply unserious person and I use my au natural persecution complex and turn it into a messiah complex so I can function. As without that plot armor I'm a broken mess of a human who bounces between non stop panic attacks, dissociation, and anguish.
4ab273bed4f79ea5bb5@reddit
two things can be true at once.
You're being a little schizo about it and spooking the liberals, but I think you're right, generally. I've been having the same kind of conversations irl and online and its cool to see those ideas come up in the wild.
Like i think its pretty clear they're trying to sink the analog petrodollar and install a new digital reserve currency. That's the only logical conclusion as to why they've torpedoed the economy. People say its incompetence, but the US is built to weather incompetence. This has to be sabotage.
Allianya@reddit
Exactly, Occam's razor. I'm absolutely a little schizo but I'm also self aware and playing into it to prove a point. Because my family literally threw me in a looney bin over this shit I'm like fuck it if I'm crazy I'll show you crazy. https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=gMt0gCPbjEU&si=8AD4I461SLLA01Ow
This is fundamentally what I'm doing right now.
awsompossum@reddit
*Hanlon's razor
Allianya@reddit
Thanks you're right, I always get those two mixed up lol
yotepost@reddit
You are extremely smart and insightful, thanks for the hard work! Can you suggest any ways to prepare?
Allianya@reddit
Don't worry about it too much first and foremost. I can't prove that this is the plan, nor can anyone really do anything about it.
Personally I stay the hell away from the USD/Stock market. Which one can debate, there's definitely ways to play it but to me it's the same thing as a casino.
If you're a minority that can be targeted I recommend you have a plan to get to a blue state if you're in a red state. Just a bug out plan.
Otherwise have an emergency preparedness kit that you should have anyway. Like 48 hour eq kit type thing.
Rossasaurus_@reddit
Evilcorp e-coin
Sapient_Cephalopod@reddit
I would really appreciate if you could provide that Altman blog post for me... it almost sounds too cartoonishly evil to be true. I tried, but couldn't find it myself:/
Allianya@reddit
https://blog.samaltman.com/hard-startups
They did a pretty good job at burying this. But they forgot browsers like duckduckgo with itw ability to search dates in the past still exist and can still find all the dirt.
I'm going public now officially. I just needed to get my ducks in a row because last time I tried to go public I got held against my will for being having "unspecified psychotic disorder".
That was my joker moment
Allianya@reddit
"Part of the magic of Silicon Valley is that people default to taking you seriously if you’re willing to be serious—they’ve learned it’s a very expensive mistake, in aggregate, not to. If you want to start a company working on a better way to build homes, gene editing, artificial general intelligence, a new education system, or carbon sequestration, you may actually be able to get it funded, even if you don’t have a degree or much experience. " - Sam Altman the Silicon valley poser who brought you OpenAi. We wrote this inv2020. Dude is a fucking hack too stupid to even delete blog posts where he tells everyone he is a hack
awsompossum@reddit
The context of the quote is about making easy goals that face harder initial competition and pressure with less funding as opposed to harder, long term goals that will be less competed with and get more backing. Nothing in that post supports your assertion that he was writing. It to explain making a bubble, that is an entirely unreasonable inference.
No-Importance8307@reddit
Is this a rabbit hole or a schizo episode ? Either way im not fucking ready
Allianya@reddit
Well I started looking into this in June when I found some really weird things about open ai that made no sense to me. Then I learned about Peter Thiel, Then I learned the insanity of private equity, then I leaned the insanity that is Silicon Valley Cults, Then I learned the insanity that was RAGE then I learned how insane it was that Musk basically yoinked rage from thiel to make doge, then I learned the insanity that is this curtis yavin fucktard, then I learned the insanity that was THE TRUMP FAMILY GAMBIT then I learned the insanity that is reporting what you find to CSIS. THEN I LEARNED THE INSANITY IN THINKING THE MENTAL HEALTH SYSTEM WOULD HELP ME. Then I learned the insanity that was myself.... Now we're here.
No-Importance8307@reddit
Ok your definitely a character, first what the hell is rage ??
Allianya@reddit
Curtis Yarvin's weird nazi cult that is the philosopher behind much of project 2025. He is quite literally a fucking shitty reddit troll from 2012s and thats why it feels like we've all been getting trolled. Its a fucking reddit troll.
Also the Trump Familiy Gambit is the one I'd recommend everyone search
oscarisagrouch@reddit
These feels like what will probably happen or something like it. Thiel had to know before the election that Trump was pretty un well, the only problem I see is Vance is so unlikely and doesn’t have that cult leader quality but who really cares if you have your own private army like ICE is right.
Allianya@reddit
So that's why I think the economic coup/terrorism angle is probable. Cause it was the only way I could figure out how the achieve their goals once Trump is in the ground.
You don't need to be popular if you control the money
oscarisagrouch@reddit
Yeah you are right probably. It’s funny when it’s laid out like this because is so fucking obvious but we are so powerless to do anything lol. Just like watch this fucking idiots say and do the dumbest shit while they take over the country.
Allianya@reddit
That's why I'm saying fuck that. I'ma do something. You can follow me if you want to help but I ask you don't share my stuff around. The longer I can actually stay under the radar the better the joke when I finally hit their radar.
superserter1@reddit
You suffer from learned helplessness
theincredible92@reddit
Tbh I have trouble believing the bubble will ever pop, that anything bad will ever happen to the economy again. Maybe I also sound delusional but they’ve been propping it up for so long that it feels like they can just continue forever..
Allianya@reddit
I agree with you. The value of the USd will be the crash, but the stock market won't crash. In fact the stock market will go to the moon.
Remember Musks 1 tril payout. It's almost like he's a bad Internet troll who can't keep a secret to save his life...
CampfireHeadphase@reddit
Interesting stuff. Any predictions as to when it might happen?
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
You can read fluff from deutche ornyou can read an industry person who actually ties together the pieces for you.
Warning. Long. Not fluffy. Scary as fuck
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/
unicornh_1@reddit
can you suggest more in-depth analysis sites like these? possibly open to read full articles.
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
Excellent question. I know of only kne other guy doing original reporting on this kind of stuff and he is paywalled at a price point way beyond my needs/ability.
Ed really is one of the few who is not puking out ai written garbage that is also original.
So many in the tech space either copy what someone else wrote or have ai make something up. Quite literally, one of the people ed actually cites is known for all ai written pieces. Which is hilarious if you ask me.
The noise to signal for anything online is so bad most everything is noise. Anything that actually is signal is paywalled, which i am not complaining about. They should get paid for their labor. I am just saying i don't trust most of it and even people like ed who do not trust most of it STILL end up citing/linking ai written slop.
unicornh_1@reddit
whole messy situation in this world now..
which another author you were talking about?
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
Aaack. Sorry i missed this. I don't want to doxx myself. he is a buddy and writes for a stock analysis place and is absolutely pissy about the state of writing and journalism and analysis so i get to hear him complain when we go for a beer.
unicornh_1@reddit
no problem, but i am always on the look for such detailed criticism or analysis pieces.
icanseeyounaked@reddit
This might be one of the scariest things I’ve ever read. I’m not an expert by any means….is there anyone who publishes and disputes any of these points?
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
So this is where good thinking can save you.
Always question your primary news source. check their work by grabbing just ONE of their claims and googling and see if you can find other news sources. What do those sources say? Read carefully to see if their logic is complete. See if they are omitting parts of the deal or info or glossong over them
Repeat for all of the big pieces of the puzzle. Congrats you have just learned how easily news can and is manipulated. Which is why people who actually like hard facts are the last ones still arguing about what really happened.
Allianya@reddit
Careful, people think you're crazy if you read independent journalists and come to your own conclusions. You're a conspiracy theorist. A crazy person. A broken human. Etc. Etc. Etc.
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
I am crazy and broken, what is your point?
/s
AbbeyRoadMomma@reddit
This is life-changing stuff, thanks for sharing.
Honest-Caregiver8938@reddit
seriously this is fucking mindblowing
arguably one of the best things ive ever read online
fagulhas@reddit
Good stuff,
Thanks for sharing!
mposha@reddit
Looking forward to Zitron's comments on AMD joining the circle jerk.
PrairieFire_withwind@reddit
Me too. I saw that, and them taking a stake in amd the same, and just about choked on my coffee.
slifm@reddit
Bro this is the least reputable bank in the world.
Cool-Contribution-68@reddit
I think Bank of England was saying something similar this week
Heavy_Nebula_9512@reddit
But will it burst? Why should it burst, if AI is such a wonder, it will be able to keep recreating itself.
phred14@reddit
It's not just AI, it's the semiconductor industry, and while we're talking about the semiconductor industry, throw in Crypto as well.
Unfortunately everyone adopting Moore's Law as something that should continue forever has landed us here. (Note - I worked just shy of 45 years in the semiconductor industry.) Skipping details, problems, exceptions, and downright idiocy regarding Moore's Law, the reality is that we've been growing semiconductor capability for over half a century at an outrageous growth rate. Semiconductors have become so cheap and volumes so great that ordinary needs have been vastly outstripped. So new demand for semiconductors has emerged - AI and cryptocurrencies. I don't know what portion of semiconductor demand is in AI and cryptocurrencies vs what portion of demand is in classical computing - that would be interesting to know. But I do know that a few years ago gamers were having a hard time buying high-end graphics cards because cryptcurrency mining was gobbling them all up.
If the AI bubble and cryptocurrency bubbles were to both pop at the same time or in rapid succession, the semiconductor industry would take a spectacular nosedive.
-AMARYANA-@reddit
Imagine a scenario with AI bubble happening with cryptocurrency bubble and then semiconductor bubble too. That would insane with this housing, food, gas prices.
I live in Hawaii, the tourism will definitely take a hit.
Bugscuttle999@reddit
I've been saying this all year.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
What's important to remember is that human beings have a propensity to assign intelligence and human qualities to all phenomenon we experience. We anthropomorphize everything.
When you see the entire economy gambled on one industry, you are naturally impelled to assign intelligence or conspiracy to the individuals, systems, and organizations involved. You think they must be planning something, or that this is part of a plan.
What you need to understand is that people are often retarded. They often lack rational thought. People are quite often stupid dipshit fucktards.
Understanding that shitbrained cocknob cuntwaffleness is a common human condition is important for a rational view of the world and how it functions.
The_Weekend_Baker@reddit
https://bsky.app/profile/justinhendrix.bsky.social/post/3m2jhpsfx622e
Another way of looking at the insanity.
lieuwestra@reddit
hundreds of billions of dollars? that's thousands of dollars per person. There's exactly zero ways to get that investment back and they know it. They would rather knowingly throw their money into a black hole than to pay tax or invest in any actual improvements to the world. Straight up evil.
asdfzzz2@reddit
Humanoid robots that understand natural language and can perform unskilled worker tasks. Working 24/7, cheaper than meatsacks, not in union, profit. Probably 2-5 years away, with China in the lead.
ArtArcturus@reddit
So far they’re struggling to create a robot that can reliably open a door, so reliable humanoid robots are probably a lot further away than that. As for understanding language, LLMs work based on probability and training data, they don’t understand anything. They’re just guessing the next word to produce based on what they’ve seen before, so they’re inherently unreliable.
Even in some fantasy world where what you said was true; who’s going to be buying all the products if everyone has been lost their job to a robot?
asdfzzz2@reddit
2-5 years, they are around GPT-3 level currently - superhuman in some narrow tasks, decent overall but amazingly dumb in some cases.
ChatGPT is better than your average fast food worker even without understanding anything. I'd even generalize that ChatGPT could do any task that you could do on autopilot/in brain off mode, which is... surprisingly huge part of all tasks.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
>ChatGPT is better than your average fast food worker even without understanding anything.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgyk2p55g8o Man order 18,000 waters.
Ruby2312@reddit
The problem isnt the software, it’s the fucking hardware.
Do you work with the sensors we have these days? Those things break if you look at them wrong and cost a fuck ton to maintain.
How about the mechanical/electrical side? Buddy, it’s duct tape and glue most of the time in civilian sectors, so i would love to see how AI work with them as medium.
Spout__@reddit
That Marx wrote about this sort of thing.
ExtraPockets@reddit
I've asked this question a lot over the past few years and my uncomfortable conclusion is that the top 10% will simply sell to each other at a much higher price and everyone else will live in oppressed poverty. Instead of selling a million units of a product, they will sell ten units at 100,000 each and the economy still works. Assuming there isn't a violent uprising before that happens, which I think there will be.
FantozziUgo@reddit
That or they count on population reducing significantly.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
Hey friend. Pull the ripcord. You need professional help. You've decoupled from reality, and it's time to talk to someone who knows how to help someone like you.
everything-grows@reddit
It's always X years away from when this tech gets so good we're all losing our jobs. Just a couple more trillion dollars bro, that's all we need we swear!
asdfzzz2@reddit
Jobs are already being lost to "just" ChatGPT. It is 1-2 years in the past by now. Robotics would accelerate that job loss significantly.
Someones_Dream_Guy@reddit
Damn, I should get in on the grift. Anyone has a few trillion dollars to invest in me?
Conscious_Yard_8429@reddit
Na. AI is still pretty rare. There are over 8 billion of you - two a penny ;)
fencerman@reddit
Sure there is - government bailouts because it has become "critical infrastructure".
Government pays off all the debts on the data centers, saddles the public with the bill, and lets the companies turn those towards other purposes like AI-generating slop "content" which quickly becomes the only stuff available, while people are forced to pay exorbitant amounts for it.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
I'm sure AI will get "bailed out" by this administration, but that coming in the form of cash injection won't do anything. You can't bail out nothing with no revenue and no product, unlike a bank or automotive industry. An economic purpose to generative large models hasn't emerged at all. They're burning hundreds of billions of dollars per year, with revenues in the single-digit billions or less. The bill due is larger than the annual US military budget for this horseshit.
I think it's more likely we just default of those debts and send aircraft carriers sailing towards international debtors. The fuck is Japan gonna do? This will crash the USD, but it sure sounds like they'll just do some stupid Milei crypto trumpcoin shit, which various states will gobble gobble up. These are mentally retarded men, afterall.
Spout__@reddit
They’d do better to simply give that money to every single citizen. But no. More inequality here we come.
sorrow_anthropology@reddit
It’s almost worse than that, they are betting.
They’re at a roulette wheel comprised of AI companies, betting it all on the hope the pill (roulette ball) lands on their number and they all think it’ll be their number.
It’s all ego driven gambling to be the king of the ashes.
Allianya@reddit
And who is to blame if it turns out to be bad bet? It ain't Trump, Thiel can't scapegoat this one onto him. He staked his personal reputation on this play by backing Sam Altman and Open Ai
RaccoonIyfe@reddit
From deutsche? Ya ok.
the-last-aiel@reddit
Omg lol people actually take advice from Deutsche bank!?
Ok_Outlandishness286@reddit
They are a bank. They like money. They are more neutral in that sense. I trust banks for information more than many other entities; if they are regularly incorrect, then they tend to go bankrupt
bristlybits@reddit
the stock market/"economy" and the actual economy of most people are so far apart right now that sure. Pop that bubble. fuck the stock market. i want it to rain men.
Someones_Dream_Guy@reddit
sharpens human-sized needle menacingly
PrimalSaturn@reddit
Should we even trust the US if they do reach this supposed “AGI” level? Obviously not. Just take a look at whose in charge there…
Cyve@reddit
This reminds me of the netflix gem - The day Yogurt left.
RexCorgi@reddit
Quick straw poll then. Do people on r/collapse use ai and how? I used DeepSeek a few times to see how it works. It was fun and coded me a swift app for storing documents, wrote me a forest planting guide specifically for my local area and told me how to make blackcurrant gummies for the grandkids. All these interactions were charming and pretty on point although I didn’t test the code. (DeepSeek recommended planting a few yew trees as apparently yew is good for making arrows and the wheel may turn. Hilarious.)
Geshman@reddit
I use DeepSeek to translate back and forth to Gazan dialect Arabic to my friends in Gaza. It works better than all the other translation apps I've tried, especially because it can factor in the context and genders of who I'm talking to and who I'm talking about (if I tell it) to make more accurate translations. It also knows gaza dialect unlike any other app I've used.
Plus shit like Google translate uses AI these days anyway
I hate that I'm using AI, but I feel it's about the most justifiable reason to accelerate the world burning to death
RexCorgi@reddit
This is a good use.
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
I do, its kinda useful for my job. It can also respond to complex open ended questions that require sorting through 10s of sources. But idk if I would call it as revolutionary as its marketing. Its a useful tool that can save time, thats it basically it afaik.
Lovefool1@reddit
I occasionally use the free ChatGPT app to create stupid images out of jokes or ideas in my text conversations with friends.
Thats about it
catlaxative@reddit
fuck no
Future-Cancel-8015@reddit
I don't as much as I can avoid it with it being built into even chrome now. That's interesting re the yew, what an odd thing for it to add in there.
LaSage@reddit
Deutsche was caught laundering money for Russia. Their reputation is not worth much.
SightUnseen1337@reddit
Absolutely nobody should take advice from Deutsche Bank. When they're not busy propping up fraudsters like Trump they're inflating the bubbles themselves.
Wafflemonster2@reddit
Even though the actual author of this quote is debated, and likely unknown, it will always be relevant
RedRune0@reddit
Like the shite housing debt they sold to the UK? Say it isn't so Deutschland, we haven't just kicked the can down the road these two decades! Tell me it's not true! Nein!
Spirit50Lake@reddit
From The Atlantic article, America's Zombie Democracy:
(The author, George Packer, is an author who explores his topic in depth; I've highlighted here a few of his more pithy paragraphs, to encourage other Redditors to read, and ponder, the full article.)
'Twenty-first-century authoritarianism keeps the public content with abundant calories and dazzling entertainment. Its dominant emotions aren’t euphoria and rage, but indifference and cynicism. Because most people still expect to have certain rights respected, blatant totalitarian mechanisms of repression are avoided. The most effective tools of control are distraction, confusion, and division.
...
You can feel the onset of authoritarianism in your central nervous system: shock, disbelief, fear, paralysis. Familiar norms and rules disintegrate every day, but the ultimate consequences remain unclear, and Americans don’t know how to assess the danger. We haven’t lived under authoritarianism. We haven’t experienced this level of sustained polarization and vitriol since the run-up to the Civil War. During the McCarthy era, careers and lives were ruined, but the White House didn’t lead the pursuing hounds.
...
Yet the Founding Fathers warned over and over about the arrival of an authoritarian demagogue. They wrote a Constitution that they thought would be the best defense against one. In 1838, a young Abraham Lincoln said that the republic would never be overthrown from abroad: “If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.” How did it come to this? How have we let it come to this? Because it’s not just being done to us. We are doing it to ourselves.
...
Foreigners are baffled that Americans are allowing an authoritarian to rob them of their precious birthright. I’m baffled, too—but I also recognize that we have no experience resisting this kind of government. So we can study what ordinary people living under other modern authoritarian regimes have done. Witness, protest, speak out, and mock in creative ways that catch the popular imagination. Politicians can run for office, lawyers can sue, journalists can investigate, artists can dramatize, scholars can analyze. Americans are already doing these things, but so far none of it has made much difference because the public isn’t engaged, and without the public on their side opponents of authoritarianism are too weak to win.
Flaccidchadd@reddit
I think the us and China are in an AI arms race, they both have to go all in if there is even a chance of total dominance, risk of the other side getting too far ahead is creating a prisoner dilemma and it looks like we're going the defect defect route
AnotherFuckingSheep@reddit
I care to predict that AI is the real deal. There’s no bubble. The companies that can keep up will continue to grow while everything else dwindles.
AI will take over the world. Not in a physical sense but in an economic sense. It will take over the jobs, the services, all of it.
To those who say without consumers there’s no economy is say there will be consumers. Instead of 40% of the world population consuming it will be 10% or 5%. And if you feel down because of that just imagine the amount they’ll be able to consume. At some point the economy will be without humans or with very few.
NVIDIA will fall to the sidelines once all big AI companies are big enough to make their own models on their own chips.
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
I also thought that, but businesses are currently failing to achieve AGI and AI implementation is failing in 95% of businesses trying to utilize AI (llms). Its a nice tool and saves time if you can utilize it or integrate it with other automation tools. But I think we are a long way from a general intelligence that can outcompete a medior/senior employee, that you can trust and doesnt hallucinate in any work scenario.
Bluest_waters@reddit
REally really hate to say it, but yeah I think you are right. There is a bubble but the industry itself will sail on just fine and AI will concentrate even more power into even fewer hands.
I hate where we are going. I really do. I wish I could see it another way but I can't.
bluehour1997@reddit
As someone working from within, yes I think LLMs are here to stay, but there absolutely is a bubble. Both of those things can be true.
I work for one of those bajillion "AI" tech startups. We've been around since forever, but have only recently had serious acquisition interest since the rebranding.
Yes, we have been working on integrating an LLM into our system, but our offerings have really not changed much and I know that a lot of these tech companies that have been around but are now suddenly "AI" have made similarly shallow changes. I'm just hoping we get bought before it bursts.
TheRealKison@reddit
I work in the design and permitting for these DCs, it's insane how much money is thrown around, I'm just talking construction costs, as the big four try and one up each other. The race to get as many sites online as fast as possible is possibly going to burn out the AEC industry.
postconsumerwat@reddit
Woops, too late to go back to real intelligence by now... the brain has pruned
killer_weed@reddit
its the nestle baby formula model but for functioning in society.
Marchello_E@reddit
I'll not be surprised when the orange guy starts walking around with gold cable necklaces and a blue cape.
From oligarchy to idiocracy...
nohopeforhomosapiens@reddit
Relax, guy!
Allianya@reddit
It's the most perfect the Emperor has no clothes moment in the 21st century. I'm pretty sure Trump is fucking miserable. Dying, desperate to hold onto what's left of his legacy by hiding the Epstein stuff. Manipulated by everyone smarter than you which is everyone except your cabinet.
His VP is chomping at the bits to throw him under the bus to make himself the saviour. It's all so predictable but so unbelievable you can hide behind discrediting us as crazy.
StatementBot@reddit
This post links to another subreddit. Users who are not already subscribed to that subreddit should not participate with comments and up/downvotes, or otherwise harass or interfere with their discussions (brigading)
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Inside_Gate_3582:
Submission statement: this article explores the economic underpinnings of the AI craze, and reports that knowledgeable analysts believe that "By 2030, anticipated demand for AI services would require $2 trillion in annual revenues, leaving a shortfall of $800 billion globally to meet that demand." It is, therefore, a bubble, the bursting of which would threaten the world economy as currently constituted.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1nzp3k2/the_ai_bubble_is_the_only_thing_keeping_the_us/ni3mpnj/
Inside_Gate_3582@reddit (OP)
Submission statement: this article explores the economic underpinnings of the AI craze, and reports that knowledgeable analysts believe that "By 2030, anticipated demand for AI services would require $2 trillion in annual revenues, leaving a shortfall of $800 billion globally to meet that demand." It is, therefore, a bubble, the bursting of which would threaten the world economy as currently constituted.