Weather cancellation regrets
Posted by Southern-Bread-5855@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 47 comments
TAFs lied. Feeling a bit discouraged lol
Long-time lurker, CFI here. I canceled all my VFR-only lessons today based on the TAFs, systematically pulling the plug about an hour prior to each one. Naturally, it ended up being VFR during every single block though forecast was trash.
I live 45 mins from the airport, and most of my students Uber in, so I try to be mindful of their time and money. Still feels like I made all the wrong calls, even though they were based on the forecast.
I know the real lesson is: show up, then cancel but I guess I was just hoping for better accuracy? Anyone else run into this & curious how you fellow CFIs handle this!
Lamathrust7891@reddit
After all the text books, pre-lesson prep, passing the damn PPL exam. I still feel like the weakest skill i have is Converting forecasts into tangible understanding \ picture in my head of what the weather is currently doing and likely going to do.
Not a huge issue flying to and from the training area, hell i drive under half the training area to get to the airport so look up.
I'm not interested in pushing limits and sneaking in 30minutes before 4 hours of thunderstorms. Nor do i want to cancel a perfectly safe flight because theirs a few more clouds then expected and a mild breeze.
For now I assume the answer is "experience".
cazzipropri@reddit
If it's possible, I file IFR, take the students to where it's VFR, do air work there, and pick up IFR back home. And I make them fly the IFR portion so they get actual time.
VileInventor@reddit
This is a dumb post. Congratz you made a good decisions, TAFs lie, but it’s better than it turning into IMC while you’re VFR. There’s a reason people say “it’s better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground”
Heavy_DeBrief@reddit
You can disagree without calling it dumb. Let’s be respectful.
VileInventor@reddit
I called the post dumb, not the person. Let’s use critical thinking.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Dumb is a bit much, but think you meant well - but respect ✊ lol
Fight_Or_Flight_FL@reddit
I deal with the same problem. I live a ways from the airport too. Better to be conservative with you and your clients' time than try to force it on a bad day. Sets a better example. I usually have a quick chat to discuss the wx and why we made the decision.
PhilRubdiez@reddit
Ask your students what they think. Get them to make good aeronautical decisions. Once they answered, I always would encourage the students to come in for a ground (if you have a lesson for them). Generally, there’s always something to do on the ground. If they’re new, teach them how to get a weather brief, and discuss weather products and/or weather theory. (You can never have enough weather knowledge, in my opinion.) If they’re new are a bit more advanced, maybe a quick mock oral, a pre-solo quiz, or some brushing up.
Sometimes, especially at the end, you don’t have much for them. “So. How’s the weather?” is a good text to shift to them. Then you can discuss what they want to review and what not.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Solid take!
PhilRubdiez@reddit
It’s actually funny. When it was guaranteed LIFR or something bad, by the end of my time with them, I’d get, “So. How’s the weather?” [not my actual go to] from them. At that point, I knew they were smart about it.
voretaq7@reddit
TAFs from JFK and ISP both sit on a throne of lies, so I feel this!
As a student I would often cancel a lesson based on current conditions and the TAF, only to walk out the door 20 minutes after my lesson would have started to bright sunny skies and a scattered ceiling 3000-5000 feet AGL.
Obviously not a CFI, but my "Hmmm, guess we should scrub today for weather." rate went down considerably after I started ignoring the TAF and reading the forecaster's discussions on weather.gov instead.
There were a couple of days things didn't go exactly to plan and I scrubbed at the airport or days when maintaining legal cloud clearances meant we had to change our lesson plan, but usually when it was "TAF looks sketch, but the forecaster's discussion says there's a fair chance at VFR conditions" the discussion was right and I got to fly, because while the TAF is trying to give crystal ball predictions right over the airfield the forecasters are looking at a wider area.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Solid take
voretaq7@reddit
I probably shouldn't have said "ignoring the TAF" so much as "tempering it with better guidance" though.
If anyone from the Friendly Aviation Administration is reading this, yes I do still look at and consider the TAF. I just don't treat it as gospel engraved in stone teletype when the Weather Witches are saying something different in their other products :-)
LawManActual@reddit
Well, like you said, if you’re going to feel bad about it, be at the airport when you cancel.
Or occasionally take the day off when the TAFs look like shit all day.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Great point!
macklackblood@reddit
I used to feel the same way about cancelling for weather as a CFI. Dont take this the wrong way, but honestly as the years go by i kind of forgot about those weather cancelling decisions i made as a CFI. But just think that youre strengthening a good pattern of being conservative with your decision making, and not necessarily with just the weather. Better to be stuck on the ground then in a bad situation in flight because being in a bad situation is gonna leave you wishing you cancelled. Honestly, dont worry about it lol. Youll drive yourself mad.
Field_Sweeper@reddit
As they say, it's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground.
goatrider@reddit
It's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than being in the air wishing you were on the ground.
Mobe-E-Duck@reddit
Valuable lesson.
bowleshiste@reddit
I'm not a CFI, but here's how I would have handled the situation:
Call each student and let them know the situation. Tell them it doesn't look like you'll be able to fly, but weather predictions are never 100%. Give them the option to cancel if they want, no worries. Also give them the option to come in and sit it out. If the weather never degrades? Great! They're already there, preflight can already be done, and when you're ready to make the call you can just hop in and go. If the weather does go to shit, stay inside and work on ground. One-on-one ground training is invaluable, and at least during PPL and IR training, there's almost always something you can do a lesson on. It could be a really good opportunity to go over weather theory. Or, like I said earlier, just give them the opportunity to cancel completely.
Side note: I found myself playing it very safe with weather when I first got my PPL. I was neurotic about weather briefings, and I cancelled a lot of flight. I'm in SoCal so most of the time, those cancellations weren't really necessary and I would feel a lot of regret later. I learned that the best thing to do is make the decision and move on. I would set a timeframe, like an hour or two before my rental was supposed to start, and if weather wasn't what I wanted it to be at that point, I would cancel and just forget about flying. Do something else. I would usually move on to video games and just ignore the weather after that. Again, not a CFI though so I don't really know how that would be applied to a day full of lessons
propsnpours@reddit
Next time, call someone at the airport? Complete that ground lesson you've been putting off? Stay in the pattern if it's marginal?
It's never the wrong call to scrub a flight for weather. However, there might be other ways you and your students can still get some value from the day.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Yeah 3/4 were intro flights but I hear what you’re saying for sure!
Liberator1177@reddit
Yeah especially if they were intro flights, it was the right call.
Liberator1177@reddit
Nope, you cancelled for the right reasons. Forecast said it was going to suck, so it's better not to waste everyone's time and money by going all the way out there just to cancel. Totally valid.
TxAggieMike@reddit
Been there
Done that
I need to print some T-shirts
UNDR08@reddit
Welcome to aviation. There will be more opportunities to cancel for no reason
Icy-North9888@reddit
Better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground
Tendercut@reddit
Not a cfi but a student with the same type of commute. I stalk the Metar, taf, and mos throughout the day. If they all don't look good i stalk the radar as well and see what if any rain is on the radar, how fast and where is it moving and are the pockets building, dissipating or staying the same size. I will also reach out to my instructor or others at the school to inquire about the conditions at the airport.
I have been able to have about an 80% success rate is figuring out if I should cancel or not, with the 20% being canceling when it would have been fine.
Beergoggles222@reddit
Imagine how bad you'd feel if your students paid to Uber into the airport only to find out the TAFs were true, or worse, decided to go because you made them come all that way and you had an accident. You can't predict the future. Go with what's out there and always make the conservative call.
If you have doubts, don't go. The FAA put out a whole handbook on Risk Management. It's not a great read, but does address your question.
DefundTheHOA_@reddit
You can always find something to do like a ground lesson or something. Even waiting a little for the weather to improve or maybe stay in the traffic pattern if the weather is ok for landings.
Being too cautious is detrimental for students because sometimes you actually need to be a pilot in bad weather it’s not always clear and calm.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
You’re right - 3/4 were intros but that last one probably could’ve found out something to do. Solid advice
DefundTheHOA_@reddit
I say this as someone who used to be cautious as well
I still am cautious and would never fly in unsafe conditions but I do think there’s a difference between unsafe and challenging
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Also fire username
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Right on 🫡
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
True and am familiar with handbook! Def will review thanks for input
rainbowsieger@reddit
I'd rather be on the ground wishing I were in the air than be in the air wishing I was on the ground.
Neither-Way-4889@reddit
I don't think he's talking about that, he means that it sucks that he missed out on some hours and his students missed out on a lesson when the weather would have been good enough to get it done. Its not the same as the weather being marginal and deciding to make a no-go call.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
Yeah basically it was projected and looking to be quite poor wx wise and then by chance the system just kept missing out airport - literally perfectly missed when it was projected to directly strike.
Southern-Bread-5855@reddit (OP)
True
DefundTheHOA_@reddit
Still show up to the airport and try to do a ground lesson or just wait for the weather to improve.
TAF’s are just one small part of checking the weather before a flight and as you’re finding out, they aren’t always reliable
BRZMonkey@reddit
We do our jobs when we make the best decisions, not when we guaranteed the best outcomes.
Mike__O@reddit
You'll never regret a weather cancel as much as you will regret NOT weather cancelling
Mehere_64@reddit
Not a CFI here but a few thoughts come to mind. Does the airport have cameras online that you can view to see what it looks like there?
I do assume that you know people who work at that airport so maybe giving them a call and asking them what the weather looks like there?
My airport has 4 cameras online that I can view to see the general weather if what I am seeing at my house doesn't match what the metar tells me. I also can call a few people that work at the airport to get an idea about the weather in the event the cameras and metar are not correlating very well.
But kudos to you for being cognizant of your time and their time.
Itkillik@reddit
As a student who lives an hr from the airport and often fly with my instructor in the am, we have cancelled the night before too. But we check in with each other and make the call before I drive down. Sometimes it woulda gone, most of the time not. I like that he's respectful of the commute/my time, and also that I'm learning about making wx decisions. I wouldn't feel bad, if I were you, unless you've got folks upset at you?
Awkward-Can-997@reddit
Yeah you can only do your best. Your decisions are not always gonna be winners.
SeriousEgg2684@reddit
Literally dealing with this right now, live an hour away and taf looked terrrible, but now its getting better after I cancelled.
rFlyingTower@reddit
This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:
TAFs lied. Feeling a bit discouraged lol
Long-time lurker, CFI here. I canceled all my VFR-only lessons today based on the TAFs, systematically pulling the plug about an hour prior to each one. Naturally, it ended up being VFR during every single block though forecast was trash.
I live 45 mins from the airport, and most of my students Uber in, so I try to be mindful of their time and money. Still feels like I made all the wrong calls, even though they were based on the forecast.
I know the real lesson is: show up, then cancel but I guess I was just hoping for better accuracy? Anyone else run into this & curious how you fellow CFIs handle this!
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