Big AI pushes the "we need to beat China" narrative cuz they want fat government contracts and zero democratic oversight. It's an old trick. Fear sells.
Posted by katxwoods@reddit | LocalLLaMA | View on Reddit | 74 comments
Throughout the Cold War, the military-industrial complex spent a fortune pushing the false narrative that the Soviet military was far more advanced than they actually were.
Why? To ensure the money from Congress kept flowing.
They lied… and lied… and lied again to get bigger and bigger defense contracts.
Now, obviously, there is some amount of competition between the US and China, but Big Tech is stoking the flames beyond what is reasonable to terrify Congress into giving them whatever they want.
What they want is fat government contracts and zero democratic oversight. Day after day we hear about another big AI company announcing a giant contract with the Department of Defense.
CuttleReefStudios@reddit
Then again from a european view, I'm trusting USA just as little as China. The nation that gets to AGI first will abuse it hard, no matter which one.
Just sad that we sit over here eating popcorn and waiting for the duel to be over T.T
Antique_Tea9798@reddit
Are you implying Chinese companies are not releasing SOTA models?
Or that Chinese ai companies do not have contracts with the Chinese military?
Or that the military doesn’t have a need for cutting edge tech contracts?
I’ll ignore the absurd implication that the Soviet Union wasn’t powerful, only someone who knows nothing about Soviet history would make a claim like that. When it comes to “the AI supremacy competition”, you can use Chinese and American models right now. You can see how neck and neck they are. Chinese tech teams are clearly extremely talented and at the top end of the industry. So, of course the US wants their own companies to succeed and foreign competitors to fail. Why would they want anything else?
The US uses fear to try and prevent you from using competitor technologies so that they can maintain their sphere of influence and limit China’s. Not to make you think Chinese ai models are good when they secretly aren’t. It really doesn’t need a conspiracy theory to make sense.
No-Big-8343@reddit
The Soviet Union never posed a substantial military threat to the USA both in terms of outright military capacity and in terms of willingness to use it. It's well established that Bush Sr. literally created a whole second team of analysts that strictly overestimated the Soviet threat so they could justify covert operations and military funding. The Soviet Archives proved that they never approached military parity with the USA pretty conclusively. There's a substantial difference between the Soviets having brilliant military scientists and reasonable infrastructure, and the USA actually being threatened by them. Any work after the opening of the archives and the declassification of USA intelligence conclusively reports that the US constantly publicly overemphasized the threat of the USSR to justify actions that were in fact motivated by separate economic reasons.
Antique_Tea9798@reddit
The Cold War was never about the USSR invading the US or vis versa. Neither had the military might to defeat the other without global annihilation.
Global powers haven’t directly fought wars since wwii. Thats not how global powers fight wars.
No-Big-8343@reddit
The claim made by op, which is completely corroborated by the release of the Soviet archives following the fall of the USSR, was that the military-industrial complex overstated the power of the Soviet military. The Soviet Union was so ravaged following WW2 that they barely supported North in the Korean War and then they only had a few decades of playing permanent catch up with the USA before the Sino-Soviet split and China's invasion of Vietnam definitively proved they couldn't oppose another major nation on the world stage and were a dying state.
Perhaps I'm missing something but at no point did I or OP imply that the basis of US armament was winning a ground invasion against the USSR? Posing a threat to US client states in Europe or a threat in terms of a nuclear war still constitutes a threat, and that threat was knowingly overstated across several administrations following the death of JFK which immediately halted potential detente.
Antique_Tea9798@reddit
Bro, the USSR literally sent 500,000 soldiers, 800 aircraft and 2009 tanks into Czechoslovakia when they decided to dabble a bit in free markets. And that was like an average Tuesday at the time.
But yeah, no army or something 🫡
Regardless, this is far out of scope of ai or local hosting or china/us
Secure_Reflection409@reddit
I think US (gpt-120) and France (devstral) are actually leading the agent based game, as much as I love the Chinese models.
Antique_Tea9798@reddit
The initial post, which I see is deleted lol, was related to military contracts and government funding for “big ai”, so it wasn’t really related to GPT-120/Devstral sized models. More likely SOTA stuff and purpose built ai models for military.
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
What they actually mean is that we need to be allowed to train on copyrighted material because China doesn't have those limitations that we do.
It makes sense, you should be able to train models on anything that's available on the open web.
9acca9@reddit
But chatgpt was downloading torrent what are you talking about?
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
Good for them, I download torrents all the time.
anedisi@reddit
if i steal your private images and post it somewhere on the web its on the open web then.
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
Yes, if you learn from my images then it's definitely game on.
BusRevolutionary9893@reddit
LoL, I can't wait for fair use case law to update and shut you people up.
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
The only way you will shut me up is if you discard these copyright suits.
BusRevolutionary9893@reddit
Give it a year or two and this will be completely settled as fair use. Just like you don't pay royalties for work you learned and took inspiration from, neither will AI.
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
That's only if you are able to determine that it AI generated. With every day it is going to get more and more difficult to distinguish between AI generated stuff and human generated stuff.
The winner takes it all, soon we will have movies that are almost entirely AI generated with just a few human actors, remain in denial, AI is here to stay and it is going to help people make money.
MrPecunius@reddit
We have a ruling that more or less says that in the Anthropic case.
They paid $1.5 billion because of how they acquired the training data; the training itself was held to be fair use.
larktok@reddit
What about training in competitors data and then entering their business domains with sophisticated full feature generated versions of their products? Like OpenAI’s LinkedIn competitor and the other products they are planning?
this is kinda some next level evolution of IP theft, this is why Balaji was killed
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
Everything is fair when it comes to AI. If you don't allow it then governments in China and India will allow it for sure. So, your choice.
Personally, I hope they all sue each other and implode. I am quite happy with U.S and Europe not being the centre of innovation.
That-Thanks3889@reddit
10000%
graifall@reddit
This person "katxwoods" is biased and her ideology is completely at odds with what localllama stands for. If you check her Twitter, you'll quickly see she's part of the Yudkowsky AI doom cult. They're not interested in vague "democratic oversight", they want strict regulation of AI technology itself, not just how it's used. If it were up to them, we wouldn't even have access to GPT-2. For localllama users, no regulation of AI and fierce competition between the U.S. and China is in fact the best outcome possible.
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
Thought so, these people are Luddites of some sort. History will render them irrelevant and meaningless.
NNN_Throwaway2@reddit
Its hard to take claims about needing to "beat China" seriously when the current administration has shown zero interest in actually opposing China's territorial ambitions in SE Asia, or supporting allies in the region.
black_homeless@reddit
Not even in the same magnitude of order of impact of China gets too ASI before USA.
NNN_Throwaway2@reddit
If Washington genuinely believed that China reaching ASI first was an existential risk, the response would look more like a Manhattan Project. That would mean a complete ban on sales, national labs directly running frontier AI research, massive state-directed investment, etc. None of which is happening.
Instead, what we see is a trickle of export controls. The A100 and H100 were blocked, then workarounds like the A800, H800, H20, and 4090D appeared for the Chinese market. Rules were tightened again, but then get relaxed when trade politics demand it (e.g. Jensen has a million-dollar dinner with Trump). NVIDIA and AMD even secured a revenue-sharing deal to keep selling into a fifty billion dollar market. Smuggling is not treated as an existential threat, either. It's handled as a law enforcement problem that gets occasional arrests and new compliance rules.
This approach is consistent with a strategy to slow China's AI progress, not with the idea that China is on the verge of ASI. The gap between the rhetoric about and existential race and what happens in practice is telling. The China-bad narrative is useful to Big Tech as a way to secure government contracts and limit oversight, not as a guide for actual national security policy.
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
You are already slowing down the progress of American companies by burdening them with constant litigation. China doesn't have that problem, most countries don't have that problem.
Just as people can learn from copyrighted material, so should bots. The danger in not doing this is it will become increasingly impossible for American companies to compete with Chinese ones.
If you want a fair playing ground then throw out all copyright related suits, it is no longer affordable.
NNN_Throwaway2@reddit
Litigation is not shutting down U.S. AI companies. Models keep getting trained and deployed while the cases move through court. While lawsuits mostly create uncertainty over licensing and fair use, it isn't clear that they are actually slowing progress in any meaningful way.
China does not have the same copyright environment, sure, but it has arguably bigger obstacles. Export controls have cut it off from the most advanced GPUs. That has forced reliance on nerfed variants, smuggling, and domestic hardware that still trails Nvidia. Those limits are a way bigger problem for China’s AI industry than copyright suits are for American firms.
Framing copyright as a decisive handicap is kind of just playing into the same narrative called out by the OP. The real competitive advantage for the United States is hardware and research talent. The notion that lawsuits will doom U.S. companies fits the same pattern as the “China first to ASI” canard. Its the basis to argue for weaker regulation, not a reflection of actual risk.
Ok-Adhesiveness-4141@reddit
What you don't understand is that smaller startups don't have the kind of money to fight these legal Goliaths, so you are wrong. Very very wrong, U.S is the land of law suits. Copyright is a big handicap when it comes to learning model. If I have a copy of your movie then I should be able to do what I like with it.
NNN_Throwaway2@reddit
It is true that litigation costs hit startups harder. But the claim that this will stymie US AI progress does not hold up. The firms setting the pace in AI are OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, and Amazon. These are not fragile startups. They are heavily capitalized and can continue training frontier models while lawsuits play out.
Most smaller firms do not train foundation models from scratch. They fine-tune or build applications on top of existing open or commercial models. Copyright litigation may affect the terms of access, but it is not going to prevent them from operating entirely.
Again, the main factor in the US–China balance is really hardware access. Training a frontier model now costs hundreds of millions of dollars and requires GPUs that China cannot freely buy. That structural advantage matters far more than whether smaller US startups face higher litigation risk or not.
So, while copyright disputes are a cost of doing business, they are most certainly not an existential threat. The argument that startup exposure translates directly into a full-blown national handicap is not supported by how the industry actually operates.
DanielKramer_@reddit
Two of those were very recently fragile startups. And FAANGs don't just drop from the sky either. Facebook was just a kid in his dorm 25 years ago
Europe has zero companies setting the pace on AI development because they strangled them before they left the cradle. Europeans don't even have their own Yandex Search, they have to use American Google or one of their "European" alternatives that uses the Google or Bing api
Fortunately, we are not Europe, but regulations are a spectrum, not a binary on/off as Redditors love to classify everything into. Maybe we could have had more OpenAIs? Or maybe in another very similar timeline we would've had zero and China would have kicked all this scaling off
NNN_Throwaway2@reddit
Its true that OpenAI and Anthropic started as small companies, but what turned them into leaders was not escaping lawsuits. It was billions in backing from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. The chief factor paving the way to their success was access to capital and compute, not a litigation-free environment.
Meanwhile, Europe’s weakness in consumer tech is more complicated than regulation. Capital markets there are less aggressive, and domestic demand is fragmented across languages and jurisdictions. Regulation plays a role, sure, but its not the sole barrier, or even a dominant force in that regard.
On the broader point, you are correct. Regulation is not binary. But the claim that copyright litigation will strangle the next OpenAI does not match the reality of the industry. The cost involved in building a frontier model is already prohibitive for startups without significant financial backing. That barrier alone makes it a domain for well-capitalized players, startup or otherwise.
The decisive factor is control over high-end hardware and capital flows, not whether copyright suits make life harder for small firms, and in that realm the US is the clear leader.
Ylsid@reddit
Make an AI NASA cmon you won't do it
Sibucryp@reddit
I have become immune to western propaganda. If anything, everytime they talk shit about China makes me want to support China even more.
That-Thanks3889@reddit
Any authoritarian system is bad whether china or wherever… china is not doing it altruistically it’s to destroy the west…. Long term it’s all going to be opensource and locally with apple winning imho
Sibucryp@reddit
I see more the west trying to destroy China than the opposite. China is just doing their own thing while the west is trying to start trade and economic wars with China instead.
Antique_Tea9798@reddit
Yeah you will generally hear more negative information from nations with a (relatively) free press and a tendency to self criticize.
They’re a massive power in today’s world, just because you don’t hear about what they do doesn’t mean they’re doing nothing. When you are a global super power, you’re never “just doing your own thing”.
China used currency devaluation in order to take international control over industries (thus tariffs), they use their economic strength to gain influence over other countries, have deployed their military against countries around them, are currently making imperialist moves to control foreign land/sea and strong arm foreign countries and companies into propagating their imperialism abroad.
Sibucryp@reddit
I find it laughable that the west tells me I should be scared of China's military when they haven't dropped a bomb in a foreign country for the last 40 years while the west has invaded 7 countries in the last 20 with 5 million deaths and 30 million displaced plus now supporting the most well-documented genocide in history. I'm telling you, westerners are the most propagandized people on Earth by magnitudes.
Antique_Tea9798@reddit
China hasn’t been a military superpower long enough to deploy have a modern military presence abroad. They are still building up their military and have had conflicts with India and continually threaten the sovereignty of their coastal neighbors.
Sure, westerners believe propaganda, but you seem hell bent on believing in the propaganda that China is this innocent country that doesn’t do anything outside of its own borders.
China’s goal is to have influence over the world, likely as it’s leader, they mostly do this through economic strong arming (a strategy people often criticize the west for), but they have also threatened to use military action countless times on Taiwan with the only reason they haven’t leveled the country being western countries defending the island.
Putting the blame on all war deaths that had western involvement is removing the agency from every other party involved in those wars. Putting the time limit at 40 years, removes chinas entire involvement in the Cold War, a brutal time that set the stage for many today’s wars with China heavily involved in supporting the soviets.
All but two western nations are no longer in support of Israel, many have cut or are cutting ties and essentially everyone is doing as much as China is to stop them. China and 90% of the west’s position on that conflict is effectively in alignment. China has invested over $15b in Israel, while giving about $70m to Palestinians in aid, and has continually been Israel’s largest trading partner in east Asia.
Sibucryp@reddit
Well they're still a million times better behaved than the Americans, that's for sure. So I have no issue with them
Antique_Tea9798@reddit
That’s great for you, but an incredibly naive way of looking at the international competition of global superpowers.
a_beautiful_rhind@reddit
Modern warfare is economic and information based. At least for modern countries that rely on such things.
No reason to be "scared" of China. Plenty of reason to examine if their goals will benefit you or not.
Sibucryp@reddit
The constant destruction and killing brought by the west definitely doesn't benefit anyone except psychopaths
That-Thanks3889@reddit
West hasn’t cut nvidia to china if they did it would stop china instsntly
Sibucryp@reddit
They have tried and that's why China is now developing their own technology. Instead of a cooperating approach, the west always manages to shoot their own feet.
I feel I'm done with this aggressive western-primacy world that is completely unsustainable and just leads to more provocations and aggression.
charmander_cha@reddit
Every system is authoritarian.
The so-called bourgeois democracy defends freedom, as long as it never interferes with the economic freedom of the owners of the means of production.
The American population is happy because they can curse their governments, and they have complete freedom to do so.
But they will never have the freedom not to die of hunger and cold.
This is why the liberal conception of freedom is pathetic
ProfessionalJackals@reddit
Because intelligence was a lot harder to get in those days. Days where we needed to physically send spy planes to fly over countries.
Where deceptions like flying 3 Tupolev Tu-4 (direct copies of captured/stolen Boeing B-29), got flown around the Red Square multiple times, scaring the hell out of the US representatives. Where the US thought that the USSR had build a fleet of Tu-4's. The reaction was justified given the intelligence of the time.
Or where the Soviet MiG-25 Foxbat propaganda worked so well, that the US thought that the USSR had a way more advanced aircraft. Only to years later discover thanks to a defection, that the aircraft was overheavy, nowhere near as technology advanced, ... But that scare resulted in the F15, a fighter so advanced that it served for over 50 years. The reaction to develop the F15 was justified given the intelligence of the time.
Its not a false narrative, the USSR did some insane things (What eventually bankrupted it). The US after the fall of the USSR, has been piggy back ridding on USSR developed rockets for years. The USSR was a actual thread in that time.
Kind of understating the issues. China is becoming a peer level militair powerhouse. When your used to be the only big dog on the world stage, its scary when somebody comes around that can rival that power.
Does it result in a ton of wasted money? But willing or not, China is a powerhouse now, that is a global player. There are always those that get benefits out of the fear of that competition, but at the same time, not doing anything can result in a technological issue later on.
I mean, the US blue water fleet is a fraction of what it was, while China is pumping our more and more capable ships at a extreme fast rate. A few years ago people laugh at the idea of Chinese Aircraft carriers, as they bought some old junk carrier. Now they are already going for nuclear powered carrier designs, catapulted powered. Yes, they have issues on the road but show me the countries that have developed carrier capabilities in such a short time.
It scares the US for a reason... and the new government is not exactly helping by angering and destroying alliances, while becoming so internal focused. While the US is literally walking backwards, China seem to be focused on fixing its weaknesses and growing as a powerhouse.
People said years ago, no way China is going to do much in the AI race when we blocked GPU sales. A lot of the best models are coming out of China now. They are now using self made cards, that sure, are not yet on Nvidia level, but in a few short years they have gone from limited and slow GPUs with no market potential, to their own cards, and building upon it.
Money is going to flow because, unlike the USSR, China is a much more capable economy to actually push advanced tech. And if you saw the last militair parade, it made the US look kind of old fashion. China has learned from the Russia-Ukraine war at what seems to be a fast rate, and they have the whole drone manufacturing inhouse. You know what links up great with cheap drones? Capable AI making them jam/spoof proof.
This is a topic that needs WAY more pages then the few paragraphs that i wrote down. But just yelling, Big Tech is getting all the money using fear ... when that fear is not unfounded and is actually linked to national security for the US.
charmander_cha@reddit
Yes, but for those outside the US it's great.
We hope that the USA sinks, we know that the USA will take a lot of people with it (unfortunately), but the pleasure of seeing this country doing stupid things is too good.
markole@reddit
As someone from the Balkans, I saw firsthand what the desire for your neighbor to fail does and it's not pretty.
MelodicRecognition7@reddit
yep. After facing lots of discrimination based on color of my passport I'm glad that Europe sinks too.
sleepy_roger@reddit
Gee... I wonder why Europeans would discriminate against someone who wants their region to collapse.... the world may never know. 😂
MelodicRecognition7@reddit
you are confusing cause and effect. I was pro-opposition and against Putin but after I saw Europe true face now I indeed want your region to collapse.
sleepy_roger@reddit
I love the United States, but at times I also wish it would sink, so all of you asking for it get to see what the world is really like. Sit comfortably in your home right now typing your insane talking points while you can such as:
If the US ever falls for Brazil, the reality would likely be brutal. The immediate economic collapse and regional chaos would cause immense suffering for the very Brazilian people you seem to champion. While a long-term strategic pivot to China might align with your ideology, it carries a high risk of simply replacing one master with another, potentially with even fewer checks and balances.
In short, your desired outcome would not usher in a utopian post-scarcity world but would most likely trigger a period of global darkness where Brazil, rather than becoming a liberated leader, would fight to avoid becoming a pawn in a new, even less predictable, game of great power politics. Your hope for cooperation might be overwhelmed by the realities of raw power and survival.
charmander_cha@reddit
There is no hope. Brazil is subservient to the US. Everything bad that happens in the US ends up making our lives worse here, especially since the US is largely responsible for the deprivation of civil liberties in the countries where it tries to intervene, whether militarily or legally.
I am fully aware that if the US ever falls from grace, it will take with it all the countries it has subjugated to this day, including Brazil.
But that will never stop me from appreciating this sinking ship. Brazil could one day be a great country, but because the United States exported all its psychopathic "McCarthyism," today a large part of my country lives in poverty, like so many other countries where the US intervened to provide "freedom and democracy."
There is no ray of hope for improvement, precisely because we know the US won't think twice about supporting a new dictator ready to kill poor and Black people, all so the US can maintain its untouched consumption patterns.
Therefore, the only thing we can do is watch and hope it sinks further each day.
And if any country has a different type of governance and is trying hard not to fall into the same misfortune that we fell into here, at the hands of the US, that country is doing the right thing.
Secure_Reflection409@reddit
Nah, we do not hope it sinks because it will take the entire western world with it.
Ask your pension provider how much they got tied up in the S&P500, for example.
Shockbum@reddit
This forum is hosted and maintained in the USA by its citizens without charging the rest of the world. I am Latin American, and it’s basic manners to respect the host when you’re a guest. Don’t be a hypocrite and get off Reddit.
iwantxmax@reddit
A fuck ton of people outside the USA have investments in US stocks, and other assets. so no, additionally, without the USA western countries, especially NATO are in big trouble from China and Russia so also no. USA might not be the most friendly ally right now due to the current administration, but it still keeps China and Russia in check.
Commercial-Celery769@reddit
FUD is one of the oldest tactics in the book
-dysangel-@reddit
Both can be true. It sells, but it sells because it is actually a big deal. I love that we're getting open models from China, but it's always good to be careful. Global superpowers are not just playing nicey nice with each other. You could be a bot yourself, just trying to stir up trouble. I think that's what Russia want. Everyone just being suspicious and confused.
Blaze344@reddit
It's kind of odd that so few people see it the same way as you.
It's just both. I don't believe for a single second that China of all nations wouldn't completely hoard all of their models if the roles were reversed and they were the ones ahead, yet, powerful models have a great potential for being economical multipliers so it's obvious that there's good reason beyond just greediness for all the investment and the desire to stay ahead. Our leaders might be greedy, but they're not incompetent too.
EmbarrassedYak968@reddit
You are not wrong but you don't see the full picture
https://www.reddit.com/r/DirectDemocracyInt/s/Gfo8DbMJ0Y
Secure_Reflection409@reddit
I would have liked to have read this post, lol.
Nothing wrong with a bit of conspiracy drama sprinkled here and there while we're waiting for Qwen to get added to LCP.
Statement_Glum@reddit
Whats the assignment here? So we need to beat proverbial russian and chinese antivax twitter bots with US antivax bots?
-dysangel-@reddit
Don't forget the vax bots.
Russia/China don't care about one side or the other on US political issues. They just want to encourage division.
That-Thanks3889@reddit
Lolllll are their really antivax bots? This antivax stuff is insane feels dystopian…
121507090301@reddit
[Yes, it's true].(https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/07/26/covid-vaccine-us-china-propaganda/74555829007/) Although it was the usa doing it against China, and op talking about Chinese "antivax bots" seem like pure projection/propaganda...
That-Thanks3889@reddit
lol insane
dukescalder@reddit
Think I might have lost out on a govt job after several rounds of conversation and an in person interview at an important policy office because I recommended Better Offline as a dissenting view.
InevitableWay6104@reddit
this is what companies do. this isnt surprising.
if you dont do this, you will be at a severe disadvantage and will likely die out. survival of the fittest.
also, its not like the Chinese companies aren't HEAVILY subsidized by the Chinese government in order to "beat the US"
abskvrm@reddit
When I win: Capitalism.
When I lose: Socialism
That-Thanks3889@reddit
Isn’t it the same in the us? I mean private equity funds hedge funds and vcs to invest in ai companies and their money is largely from pension funds?
That-Thanks3889@reddit
Don’t see whether they train on Data or not it helping them it’s mostly ai slop what’s left…. They already trained on whatever was decent already lol
Ska82@reddit
do everything except what the chinese do... share...
MelodicRecognition7@reddit
I was banned from few platforms three years ago when I was saying that the russian-ukrainian war is beneficial for European leaders, I'm glad that soy cuckolds are start to realize that, at least now.