How far from a city is safe in a doomsday scenario ? How far can a migrating crowd travel?

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Money_Ad1068@reddit

I read a long time ago that being beyond a 3-day walk from a major city is a minimum. This always stuck with me. Thought being, the population that leaves the city some time after the gas and food run out are on foot. They are going to be starving, maybe injured, desperate and traveling in larger groups. This group appears later in the timeline, long after the guys roaming about in their lifted pickups show up to "take assets off your hands".

While we often prefer to romanticize and fantasize about the community coming together and sharing eggs and chain saws, the very worst of times can bring out the worst in people. If they're already a thief, they'll become a murderous thief. If they're already a selfish, inconsiderate jerk, their plan is only to stock up on guns & ammo and take your supplies at gunpoint. All in the name of proudly providing for their family.

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Ok_Pollution9335@reddit

How many places are there that are over a 3 days walk from a city?

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Money_Ad1068@reddit

I read it as 3 days walk from a "major city", which helps. Some of the immediate locations that pop into my mind are in W. Montana, South Central Colorado and W. Colorado, the Upper Peninsula and northern Great Lakes States, far upstate New York. Those are just the places I would myself consider due to the amount of natural resources they have. Natural resources notwithstanding, lots of land fits that equation in Texas, Nevada, Wyoming, the Dakotas, etc.

These people on foot would be desperate, injured, unhealthy, unprepared and/or starving so with supplies on their back and children and elderly in tow...the healthiest among them might make what, 20 miles a day on flat ground? Choose a bug-out property up on a mountainside and add a day onto their timeline.

There are a lot of personal factors involved. Those are some of my factors, yours will naturally be different. Happy prepping!

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Timmy-from-ABQ@reddit

Nukes make is so that I'd prefer to be at the center of the blast zone.

Other catastrophes? I've always been skeptical of the bug-out idea. Where ya going to bug out to? As a lifelong Rocky Mountain west resident and outdoorsman, hunter, fisherman, etc., it strikes me that the hinterlands will be full of bandits and militia types who will try to live off the individual or small groups of preppers, as they will be loaded with supplies, nice guns, lots of ammo and maybe gasoline. Also, a lot of these guys think because they know a lot about guns that big game will be easy.

Then, if you survive that, all the game will be long gone in a month or three. "Living off the land" is an over-rated idea. Watch some episodes of highly skilled, relatively well equipped participants in "Alone" to get an idea of what it might be like.

My plan? Stay the fuck in the city. Round up the neighbors that agree with me. Forage the shit out of the empty prepper houses. Put together a good defensive fortress with 24 hour guards and a plan to roust everyone out to defend. See, no matter what, it's gonna be a bitch. If civilization does start to emerge, it'll be in the cities.

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Ok_Pollution9335@reddit

This is a very good point. I always wonder if being in the middle of nowhere is actually a good idea. It takes one group of ill-intentioned people to take you out. Finding a group of people to band together with would be the safest option, and that’s impossible if you’re in the middle of nowhere

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J0E_Blow@reddit

Also, a lot of these guys think because they know a lot about guns that big game will be easy.

Say more? This is an interesting topic.

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Brudegan@reddit

I do fishing (or did until a few years ago). Even with baiting and from a boot with high end fishing equipment its not guaranteed to catch enough to feed yourself RELIABLE. Over here except some fish the fish population cant sustain itself. Thinking that all you need is a hook and some line on it is an illusion.

My brother in law is a hunter. Its the same with game than with fish. Even with best conditions its already not possible to feed yourself. How people think will it work with less than ideal conditions always makes me wonder.

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40ozSmasher@reddit

Ive seen maps that put 100 miles around every population center and it really shows there is very little "middle of nowhere " available.

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RepublicOfLucas@reddit

This is why a yacht is the ultimate bugout vehicle.

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DeafHeretic@reddit

Have you ever been on a small (less than 100') private boat on the open ocean for more than a day? In bad weather? I have (USCG) - not fun and not recommended for the inexperienced, especially if you are not in the best of health.

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Brudegan@reddit

Dont keep others from their LARPing fantasies with your reality checks. ;-)

That said theres probably a reason for rich people to build bunkers in New Zealand or Hawaii. Imho it doesnt matter in the long run since it only prolongs the delay til death. That why im more for Tuesday than Doomsday.

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DeafHeretic@reddit

Imho it doesnt matter in the long run since it only prolongs the delay til death.

Prolonging the delay until death is the whole purpose of prepping.

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Ninja_Goals@reddit

Well it’s also comfort during the emergency. I know i have food at least 3 months worth and a generator. Some supplies. So antibiotics etc. to suffer less

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DeafHeretic@reddit

Certainly, at some point, I would not wish to prolong suffering.

I watched my grandfather whither away, basically become a vegetable and lay in a bed until he died, because my parents did not believe otherwise.

Same for my father, who lay unconscious for days (less than week), with terminal cancer, in a hospital, at the end struggling for breath, when that could have been ended (by that time, in my state, assisting him in ending his life would have been allowed, but my mother did not believe in doing that).

I have informed my daughter that should I be in either situation, that I want my life terminated. She agrees, and feels the same way (she has an incurable disease that may result in her being in the same situation).

-----

That is quite different from saying that I would not want to survive a nuclear war. Assuming that you survive with the ability to make these decisions yourself, if you are not in intolerable/intense pain or sickness, that survival is just rough, but survivable, I see little reason to just give up.

You can always choose to just end the suffering - there are many ways to do that more or less painlessly. But to not even try to prepare for survival because you think it might be difficult is just lame & lazy.

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Ninja_Goals@reddit

I have stage 4 was told to get affairs in order in 23. My doc said i would die that winter. Since then been to morocco, aruba, bonnair, curacao, Spain, Greece, turkey, Bimini, grand Cayman, mexico, belize, multiple road trips in US. I still work 2 days a week as a nurse.. helping people. I still volunteer, i still donate and make myself useful. I have planned my funeral but will live life to the fullest until the good Lord calls me home. If i followed your thinking i would have taken the morphine 2 years ago. Only God knows our expiration date. I pray i don’t suffer.

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DeafHeretic@reddit

you are typing a response, so I assume you are not mentally a vegetable like my grandfather was, or unconscious and in a coma, struggling to breathe, for several days, like my father was.

your choice though and I agree with it.

But if I am ever in a state where I am permanently no longer cognizant of my surroundings, unable to interact with the world around me, unable to control my bodily functions - that is the point where I want my life terminated, if I am not able to do so myself. Especially if I am in pain.

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Ninja_Goals@reddit

Agreed! That is not being alive

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Brudegan@reddit

Thats why i do it. But there are limits what prepping can do. And walking into the sunset with your bug out bag and living happily ever after isnt working despite some people seem to believe that.

And if a large group (because it wont work in alone or small groups) would be independent enough to make it work the government would come down on them hard.

People give up freedom for security/comfort/higher living standard but when that fails like it does right now governments often try to control people instead of fixing the problems.

Theres a reason (at least over here) for putting preppers into the far right extremists corner trying to overthrow the government while painting as mental unstable nutcases at the same time. They are also blamed for shortages even its the other way around since they are the only ones not panic buying in an emergency. And since people want to blame someone for their own shortcomings putting preppers and panic buyers into the same basket does actually work.

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DeafHeretic@reddit

Agreed.

Due to my health and age, I would be lucky to be able to walk just a few miles to get home.

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Brudegan@reddit

Its the same for me. And theres no chance for me to survive longterm against hundreds of thousands of mostly young men used to violence as someone who hasnt hurt another person in his whole life. That also a thing all the couch warriors fail to understand...not everyone is able to inflict violence when its needed. Even just freezing for a second could put you at a disadvantage enough to lose a fight.

So for me at least it will be bug in for a few weeks to months unless forced to do otherwise before becoming just another refugee.

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DeafHeretic@reddit

I already live at my "bug out" location and being retired, I spend 99% of my time here. I have little reason to go elsewhere - just the occasional errand run into town about twice a month for a dr appt and/or groceries.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

Almost none of the people here have spent extended periods of time on boats, much less far off-shore.

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DeafHeretic@reddit

If they had, like I had, they would not be so quick to recommend it. With my current health I would be dead in a few days on almost any kind of ocean going vessel.

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Barnaclejelly@reddit

Hey, if they’ve done ocean sailboat racing it will be fine 🙄

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roberttheiii@reddit

It’s definitely not something you just go do. But if you have, say, done some ocean sailboat racing, it’s doable.

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wildwalkerish@reddit

I’d prefer a live aboard sailing catamaran

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RepublicOfLucas@reddit

Yeah I meant a sailing yacht. You can carry a literal ton of food, fish, collect rainwater and use a solar powered water maker. You can avoid other people, 2/3 of the Earth's surface is water. You can find somewhere safe to go via radio or wait things out on the ocean/remote islands. Of course things constantly break down on a yacht and floating in the ocean is inherently unsafe compared to land, but hey, it's the apocalypse.

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deleted_by_reddit@reddit

[removed]

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preppers-ModTeam@reddit

Your comment might be seen as trolling.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

The fish populations might get decimated. They'd probably also be pretty polluted from radiation, toxic run-off, etc..

Seems like going to the mountains would be safer than a yacht. Pirates would become a thing again and most medium and small boats have radar and could find you. The ocean is big but if thousands of people took to the sea in their boats of all types..

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erbush1988@reddit

If everything went to shit, a boat is good for 3 to 4 yrs max. Then it will be in fairly rough shape. Sails will need work. Hull will need work. Etc.

If you are really handy, maybe 5-6 yrs.

But then... It will be rough. Salt takes a toll, even on a boat. Annual haulouts haven't been happening. Proper hull cleaning may not be happening. And more.

I consider boats great as a long-term but temporary escape until things on land settle down.

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roberttheiii@reddit

That’s a kind of yacht. But I’d be more comfortable with a mono hull. Recovers from knock downs. Better upwind performance.

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_learned_foot_@reddit

There’s a time and place that line would have started a fight.

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wildwalkerish@reddit

Very true, but I would hope if SHTF they would try to sail to calm waters. Any sailor worth their boat would have a copy of Jimmy Cornell’s World Cruising Routes onboard.

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pedernalespropsector@reddit

I think a trained elephant is the best. Forages its own fuel and stomps on anyone you don’t want around.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

What a soft, weak thing to say.

Real men ride rhinos with horns carved so sharp they're sword like.

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smk4567@reddit

Especially that honey badger

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Expensive_Step_6674@reddit

Just in time for solar powered drone mini ships hunting for targets.

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Fire_Stool@reddit

Ooh. I hadn’t considered this

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Cryyus@reddit

Link 🔗

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DJSpawn1@reddit

cool, but what is being counted as "largest cities" on that map? because that map is showing a lot of covered areas that are well outside of large city areas as being inside the 100 mile range... so, again, what counts?

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40ozSmasher@reddit

Its just population centers. The idea being these places in an emergency would eventually need to start reaching for resources and its unlikely they would be able to search farther then 100 miles. Ive even seen population spread. So each person is like a cork and you fill a 100 miles of pool with water. Now dump all the corks in. Even a small communities population can occupy every square mile ,50 miles in every direction.

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DJSpawn1@reddit

Still not making sense

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40ozSmasher@reddit

Well, I feel sure I can explain how it works, but it looks like you thumbed me down, so I'll suggest you go kick a large rock.

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DJSpawn1@reddit

and that attitude is the reason you wont survive....

I asked a question as to what counted a a "large city" and you (condescendingly) came back and said "well a population center". That still didn't say what counted as a "large city" or A "population center".

So you just tried to sound "smart"... without answering a darned thing.
WHAT COUNTS? 1 every mile?, that is a freaking population.... 5000 in a ten mile area?, that is a freaking population..... What is actually sustainable to hunt/forage/grow your own? Or what is actually defensible to allow you those options?

Now, to me, a large population is 50,000 or more in a city/town. nearest to me with that population. is over 50 miles away, and the next one is over 100 miles away. Now, do you think all 50,00 would head in 1 freaking direction? or would many head for the bigger city that is about 100 miles the other direction from me? the closest place with 100,000 + is over 150 miles away from me.... And I live in the middle of the freaking South.

So, while the original link/graphic, was cool, and interesting.... it was a bit deceptive in prepping, so I asked for some danged clarification, and you hemmed and hawed without saying a freaking word....USELESS

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40ozSmasher@reddit

At no point in time did I mention a large city. I only mentioned population center. You got confused. Now go kick rocks.

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RogueBigfoot@reddit

I agree, I know norcal fairly well. For some of those bubbles to be filled in, they would have to be counting towns less than 10k people. And using as the crow flies, definitely not roads.

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Scary_Bus3363@reddit

But I guess Burns, Oregon and Challis, Idaho are the new frontier

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Scary_Bus3363@reddit

Since when is anything in Wyoming or Elko, NV a big city?

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Jan_Asra@reddit

Time to move to the mountains of Idaho and live off of onion juice.

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40ozSmasher@reddit

Nice work!

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tehdamonkey@reddit

100%.... basically the full gas tank drive of an economy car then a couple of days walk.

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DeafHeretic@reddit

And that is a minimum. It is totally probably that a person could have a aux tank setup. I have a 110 gal diesel tank (currently almost full) that can be lifted onto my truck (I have a hoist), and the truck itself has a 37 gal tank. At 15-20 MPG (assuming the roads are passable), I can travel 2000-3000 miles. I also have 10 NATO 20 liter Jerry cans which would give me another 750-1000 miles range. Not to mention 6 more 5 gallon "safety" cans I use for equipment.

FWIW - I currently live about 30 miles from a major metro area (PDX). I do hope to one day move further away - about another 30-50 miles.

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aveeight@reddit

You do not seem like the average person this question was geared toward 😂

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DeafHeretic@reddit

All it takes is one guy to ruin your day.

The other side of the coin is if you have a bug out retreat where you are not present at the time of the SHTF event, how far can you travel?

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J0E_Blow@reddit

He would be stuck and his truck and gas would be useless. All the major freeways and many minor roads would be rendered impassable by cars that ran out of gas.

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outsider531@reddit

Large enough truck with Winches can clear the road ot go offroad

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DeafHeretic@reddit

It depends on the scenario. If you have a retreat you need to travel to, then bugging out before everybody else does will be extremely beneficial.

Fortunately, I live 24/7 at my "retreat" and rarely leave it (about twice a month for a few hours) and I have a GHB in my vehicle.

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Scary_Bus3363@reddit

You have roofies in your car? Oh wait get home bag. lol

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40ozSmasher@reddit

"Ah!, you are finally awake "

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last_rights@reddit

My big out retreat in the middle of nowhere is about a seven day hike from my house. Going at a slow and leisurely pace.

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johnnyringo1985@reddit

And can you get there before someone else recognizes the plush setup and settles in?

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roberttheiii@reddit

Cool but you’re certainly the minority.

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DEverett0913@reddit

Minority of the minority, he’s got more range than the majority of people on this sub lol.

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altiuscitiusfortius@reddit

Op asked London or Paris

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Mala_Suerte1@reddit

This is the correct answer. A lot of cars have a 15-20 gallon tank and if you assume a modest 20 mpg, then you're looking at 300-400 mile range. So that'd be the minimum distance from a major population center.

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Icy-Ad-7767@reddit

A reasonably fit person can walk 20 km a day, that same person on a bicycle can cover closer to 200 km. For a city dweller a bike is a much better bug out option in a post collapse situation. Now if you are ahead of the wave then a car is a better option.

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Signal_Oil_8351@reddit

Well, determined individuals, such as refugees from nukes, can travel anywhere from 12-25 miles on foot a day and 60-100+ miles on bikes. And most people won't carry food/water for more than 3 days worth. So 300 miles would be a good rule of thumb I guess.

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First-Airline4285@reddit

What about tillamook Oregon is it safe? Been thinking I wanna move there.

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Siafu_Soul@reddit

As most people have pointed out, it would most likely be very difficult to get far enough away. My advice is always to move into more complicated spots. The more turns that you have to take from a major highway to your driveway, the better off you'll be. Especially if people aren't familiar with the area, they will be sticking to the highways and immediately surrounding roads.

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NoUseForAName2222@reddit

You ever watched Threads? It's on YouTube.

The only way to prep for a nuclear war is to avoid one.

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ryanenorth999@reddit

Just use Nukemap

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

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Thick-Pressure-9154@reddit

Ask chat gpt for your area and it will break it down. Because of the direction of winds, I am mostly safe where I live if a major city or base got nuked.

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Useful-Contribution4@reddit

100 miles and deep into the woods.

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BlairMountainGunClub@reddit

Also important to think about people coming through your area to go to cities or other promised land.

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bearinghewood@reddit

Very much dependant on access to water. And direction of travel. If they followed water ways, I'd say as long as they could scavenge/steal/murder for food, indefinitely. And yes I know people are going to say they would protect their resources but mob mentality wouldn't care about losses. Like locusts.

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JRHLowdown3@reddit

Look around and do some people watching next time your in public. A good percentage of the population is in shit shape. Extremely obese, already tottering from side to side when they walk, etc.

Most won't make it far on foot.

Traffic jams will slow down car travel if it's possible. People will start getting shot if they have working vehicles.

In your scenario with nukes, given the general lack of knowledge about nuclear issues, many will not know how to properly shelter and will be sick within a few days or a week.

And don't forget all the "good ol boys" here in the country will be blocking bridges and roads to keep folks out. Talk to any redneck that isn't preparing about something like this and within a few minutes they will talk about blocking roads to keep people out of the country.

"You ain't from 'roun here" might very well be the last words heard.

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Femveratu@reddit

For anyone who wants a truly in depth discussion of this topic, see James W. Rawles and his and others long time discussion of what they call The Golden Horde, which is this exact issue basically of out of city migration.

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n3wb33Farm3r@reddit

There's no way to know. Assumption is 1bomb hits geographical center of the city. In reality big cities like London or New York would be targeted with multiple war heads. Cities like along the I95 corridor on the East Coast of the US are clustered. You could be moving away from the blasts in DC only to be heading towards the hits on Philadelphia. No one can predict how far crowds would go. Just for example it happens in dead of winter with 3 feet of snow on the ground or during the hight of summer with temperatures over 95°F. No safe distance in doomsday scenario, don't know all the variables.

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BaldyCarrotTop@reddit

I would try to dig up reports of the evacuation of Berlin at the end of WWII. Not so much an evacuation as the citizens were fleeing before the allied and Russian invasion.

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sgtPresto@reddit

Look..they recommend a minimum of 50 from major metro , 35 from any military base. Are you escaping the unprepared hordes or nuclear fallout?

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TheRealBunkerJohn@reddit

In a doomsday scenario? It'd be gridlock and you'd be walking. After a nuclear attack, you have fallout contaminating anyone outside, utilities down...there's be a lot of death. There's no single answer. The more remote you can be, the better.

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DanceDelievery@reddit

Yep, depending on the doomsday scenario, cities might be safer than outside of cities. Nuclear armagedon would mean the outside world is radiated and cold from nuclear winter, leaving the city is the last thing you should do.

If the threat comes from contact with people like societal collapse with gangs, sticking together with a group thag is trying to reestablish order and fend off gangs is still safer than trying to survive in nature by yourself.

With deadly infectious diseases they would die down quickly, even in realistic zombie apocalypses the zombies would succumb to injuries, lack of food and disease related health issues.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

the worst of nuclear radiation degrades within 3-10 days so if you're not emerging from a bunker at the blast site you'd be fine. (maybe you'd get cancer at like 65)
Nuclear winter has been debunked.
Everyone in the cities would be at each other's throats if they were short on supplies which they probably would be. Most city-folk don't have survival skills.

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Gustomaximus@reddit

Most city-folk don't have survival skills.

Even with skills, once people pick over supermarkets, distributions centres and households there not much to survive on no matter the skills. Don't guides say there's about 3 days food in a city at any one time. Even if people manage to double that to 6 days, its an amazingly short lifeline buffer when you think about it.

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drmike0099@reddit

That's also true in the country. The only advantage you might have in the country is that there may be warehouses of food that was intended to be shipped that you could rely on (dependent on the season), or if you're lucky enough to have a food distribution center nearby then that would help. Every big chain is now optimizing for just-in-time delivery to reduce inventory costs.

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Forward_Constant_564@reddit

I always assume roads would not passable, so I would plan be on foot.

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Connect-Town-602@reddit

My dad read a few years ago that 80% of adults can not walk 5 miles non stop. As far WMD, people in cities have no where to go. Without medical care, insufficient food or shelter most people would begin dying rapidly.

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whiskey_piker@reddit

The further from major metro the better. Dig in for 72hrs at least. Plan accordingly for meal rations. Do not plan on driving for at least a week unless you have a motorcycle or bicycle. After about 2 weeks there will be so many dead, you’ll have plenty of fuel stored in the abandoned cars and food in every apartment/house.

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DishMonkeySteve@reddit

You can easily survive 7 days without food or water. How far can someone get in 7 days?

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OPTISMISTS@reddit

Lol easily survive 7 days without water? Maybe they'll survive but not easily. And those who go without water a day and a half are already messed up

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DishMonkeySteve@reddit

Not true. Brett and Heather did a dry fast for seven days. Darkhorse podcast. Have a listen. Dry fasting is a new trend.

What's the longest you've gone without food? I've only done 5 days, but I have friends that crushed that.

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CrowdedSolitare@reddit

We’re they walking long distances while doing it?

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DishMonkeySteve@reddit

Good question. And what was the temperature in the PNW? They are academics that hike and such. Listen to the podcast, its interesting.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

You seem like you haven't been outside much.

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DishMonkeySteve@reddit

So don't listen to the podcast. I live in a forest on a MASSIVE lake.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

In summer you can become heat-stricken hiking without water for 6 hours.

If you think someone can go without water for 7 days you're delusional.

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DishMonkeySteve@reddit

OP didn't mention doing labour. Listen to their podcast or don't.

I'm on a Great Lake so that's not a factor in my planning at all.

I was amazed to hear their scientific explanation of dry fasting, even tho I really dont want to try it.

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OPTISMISTS@reddit

Im not arguing on the food part .... you can go for a long time without food. I know some ppl that gone 7+ days but felt like they could've kept going

But the water part im skeptical. If youre moving around all day being active, you would need to sweat & then rehydrate. Haven't heard about dry fasting at all. I have heard of people in survival situations live for 7 days without water...... but it always ends in agreement that this is something you shouldn't be relying on, especially because every body is built differently.

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DishMonkeySteve@reddit

Yes, it's possible but not easy, agreed. I don't even want to try it. I hate the idea. Purists won't brush their teeth lol.

Check out the podcast if you want a glimpse.

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OPTISMISTS@reddit

Yeah thanks for the resources, I never heard of smth like this 😀😀

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DishMonkeySteve@reddit

I can barely survive a day without a shower lol.

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ArcaneLuxian@reddit

I dont know about how European road systems work or how they'd be impacted by an evacuation scenario. But let's take Houston, for example. It's a major shipping and military based city that plays a major role in the American economy and defense. It's also plagued by hurricanes.

There would definitely be a gridlock if you're not among the first to leave. There are plenty of back roads and service roads, but they too would be congested. Were people needing tk leave they'd obviously move north as South isn't really an option unless you were going to Mexico or west. You'd definitely start to see some diffusion. After about 100 miles, there would still be plenty of crowds coming through, but people by then would be looking to the smaller towns.

A person on foot can go about 15-20ish miles a day, and that's assuming they're not in a group, have lots of gear they're transporting, or have small children.

I if youre looking to bug out for any reason I'd plan rest stops every 10-20 miles. Either a camp spot or small town. If youre by car and taking back roads plan for to buy a property or become regular faces in a town off the main highway at least 120 miles away from your city center. This will help with integration.

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bothtypesoffirefly@reddit

Transportation engineering says that generally, people will walk about a half a mile to get to a transit station. Even in a shtf situation, most people aren’t going to walk more than a couple of miles. They’re likely going to hunker down and hope to wait for it to blow over.

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Guilty-Criticism7409@reddit

If you want a really depressing read on the topic, check out the book Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobsen.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

Didn't that book get absolutely horrible reviews?

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Guilty-Criticism7409@reddit

It’s on the NY Times bestseller list & pretty highly reviewed on most places where you can buy it. 🤷🏻‍♂️

The scenario in the book definitely uses some creative liberty, but that’s not really what the book is intended to be about IMO - it’s more about the response sequence, the sheer excess of any superpowers arsenal, and the aftermath sequence from moment of detonation.

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Feeling-Buffalo2914@reddit

So assume that Paris got nuked. Say it was a B61-7. Central Paris hit.

1,102,180 estimated killed outright 1,602,410 injured. Estimated as of Nov 2023.

And today’s population of the Paris metropolitan area is about 11 million.

Now how many of the “normally injured”, as well as those with radiation sickness and burns are going to be mobile?

What supplies are they going to be able to carry? Locate along the way?

Some would argue that because of the current situation or population, no place would be safe anywhere the refugees would or could go. And this could be correct for Paris/France in general.

How far is safe? Is it safe now? How many might stay vs leaving?

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Superb_Response7575@reddit

A lot would depend on terrain, weather, and how organized people are, but on foot most folks wont make it more than 10-15 miles a day long term. Fuel would run out fast and gridlock is almost certain near big cities. If youre far enough that walking crowds would take days to reach you, youre probably outside the main wave.

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alphalegend91@reddit

This is a ridiculous hypothetical, but if you have to ask, look at the average range a tank can hold for cars. In the US it's usually around 400 miles. Even if you halve that, that's pretty fucking far.

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xSlappy-@reddit

Millions live in areas that cannot get away via car due to bottlenecks like bridges, tunnels, or highway exits

My bugout plan is a bicycle

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galaxy_ultra_user@reddit

Motorcycle would work to they can get places a car can’t and can go cross country. Bike would be slow and not very efficient especially with hills involved.

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Brudegan@reddit

Thats why i consider an ebike as the best compromise. You could use a small trailer (that can also pulled by hand). The range could be prolonged (even unlimited) with a 100-200W solar panel and a DC battery charger.

My ebike has around 45km range with power. Using only low power would extend that to over 100km.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

I'd rather be riding a road-bike on the shoulder weaving around cars going from 2 mph to 20 while I make my way somewhere. Would be a lot fast than a mountain bike.

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ilreppans@reddit

This… a big city/metro area will quickly gridlock. For me dualsport motorcycle, spare gas (upto 500mi), then 38L 3day/120mi BOB (UL backpacking rig w/LDP longboard).

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RankedTrainwreck@reddit

This is why I keep my tank full + another tank & a half at the ready.

Can be far asf away while everyone else is lined up for gas.

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Gustomaximus@reddit

Cars aside, people underestimate how far someone can walk. Like when they look at ancient cultures and how they migrated 1000km away. Unless its difficult terrain, its not this almighty journey people can think.

If you walk at 6km an hour, 8 hours a day, you'd cover that 1,000km in about 3 weeks. Obviously that's a bit perfect world but its not unreasonable to consider people can move 30-50km a day if they have good reason.

The thing working in a remote persons favour and distance is surface area squares as you move out. E.g. a 16-inch pizza will have four times the surface area of an 8-inch pizza. So unless you are on a main throughfare the further you are reduces the chances of being found exponentially.

So for this question, id be as much concerned about not being on main arterial roads as the actual straight line distance.

But to best guess, assuming people have access to water, Id say about 500km for larger crowds as given the world isn't a straight line. That probably covers aboutt 2 weeks walking? Odd smaller groups x2.

What do you think? Does that seem reasonable for back of an envelope maths?

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Dont-Sleep@reddit

What if you live in small towns and the city goers go to you ? I think the more popular dynamic of defending your home from city dwellers is more common.

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carrot1890@reddit (OP)

Well that exactly what I'm asking, or a small farmer.

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jjking714@reddit

This is gonna sound morbid. But the only truly safe distance from a population center is about 6 feet under it.

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plsobeytrafficlights@reddit

the 3 things are time, distance, shielding. when? sooner, how far is "far"? keep moving. get mountains, hills, forests, cities in between you and whatever problem.

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Mechbear2000@reddit

Minor mass exoduses occur in Florida every couple of years. They a people fleeing from a small part of the state for a hurricane. They are highly managed affairs, with police and tow trucks. Both directions of interstates turned to one direction.

Now add every city, now assistance, mass histaria. When why, how where. don't think it matters the roads will be clogged with cars once the masses finally decide to leave. By then it will be too late.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

Also Police Officers probably wouldn't do their jobs if their families were at risk of being turned into sidewalk-shadows.

It's kinda fun to think about how a large American city could be evacuated. The only way I can envision is large trains but even then you could never chain together and load enough train cars to evacuate a whole city. The only solution seems to be to make your train stations and tunnels extra deep and having people use those for shelter unless you can build fall-out shelters under buildings.

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No_Character_5315@reddit

Europe and even the usa is so densely populated with bigger cities I don't think surviving a nuclear exchange is possible. I live in Canada and even tho we are a bigger in total land than the usa with a population less than California I don't think any real type of survival would be feasible at best we may have a few more months than people down south.

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Stealthyunplug@reddit

I wonder what the smallest population size would be targeted. 100k? 50k?

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No_Character_5315@reddit

I think it would be anywhere with a airport big enough to be be a landing and refitting spot for the military be my guess. I've heard new Zealand would be the best place as it isn't considered a military threat and doesn't have neighboring countries that would use them as a staging area for nuclear retaliatory strikes.

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J0E_Blow@reddit

So many people have bug-out homes and second homes in general that I think if any number of them actually got to New Zealand it would be complete chaos. Not to mention the logistics issue of feeding so many people when the global economy and supply chain has been incinerated.

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Globalboy70@reddit

Remember this defenders need to be vigilant 24/7, attackers always have the element of surprise, diversion and planning.

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kkinnison@reddit

If you have not started moving well before the disaster hits

you are totally screwed.

Downside of living near a population center is that while you might enjoy a lot of comforts, when SHTF you have 1000s of people trying to do the exact same thing you are and basic civil engineering says roads can only handle 1000 cars per mile, per lane or you get gridlock.

That is why my prepping has been focus on bugging in, or planning to take a two week vacation to a hotel i can get to with a half tank of gas, that has a pool, hot tub, and free breakfast

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Imurtoytonight@reddit

For anyone thinking they will be driving away from a doomsday city they will be in for a shock. Look at what happens in the US during hurricane evacuations. The interstates become one big parking lot. It only takes one person running out of gas and the road becomes one huge parking lot.

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_momentumisyourvenom@reddit

2 or 3 miles should be good

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Jammy-Doughnut@reddit

It's not just big cities you need to be concerned about.

You also need to consider air bases, major airports, industrial areas used for major manufacturing that could be considered a threat, naval bases/main docks.

These could all be potential targets for air strikes.

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edhas1@reddit

Yup, live in the middle of nowhere, but only 30 miles from Whiteman, be interesting to see how that goes should it come down to it.

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Many-Health-1673@reddit

25 - 30 miles maximum. Most people will wait too long in the cities to exit while they are still well fed and in good condition. The roads out will be a total traffic jam if the nuke hit during the day, and human predators will be looking for easy pickings.

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C_A_M_Overland@reddit

Look at Katrina or the floods in NC. Life goes on just miles away from disaster.

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ruat_caelum@reddit

Which is completely different than a Nuke. A storm is "things are normal but the bad shit isn't affecting me." A Nuke is "this might be the end of the world, where will they target next, we need to get out, we need food, we need fuel, we need weapons. It's panic all over. You would have panic inflicted deaths in Montana if NC was nuked.

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sparky-molly@reddit

Read- One Second After by Forstchen. Excellent ideas in fiction scenario, great read

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TsarManiac@reddit

Good insight until the third act imo

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Guilty-Criticism7409@reddit

Came to recommend this book too

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S0PHIAOPS@reddit

Same……Probably the best understanding you can get of the situation. Book was phenomenal for this type of thinking, did you read the entire series?

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Guilty-Criticism7409@reddit

I did.

The whole series was a pretty good read.

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S0PHIAOPS@reddit

Agreed. I enjoyed it.

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WangusRex@reddit

How far? All the way to wherever they end up, just like you.

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Feeling-Intention995@reddit

1 block in my city. Every house is a possible killzone.

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Big-Preference-2331@reddit

Probably depends on the season. I grew up in Wisconsin. If the roads werent plowed after a snow storm you're not getting very far. I'm now in the Phoenix metro area. If an attack happened in the summer and people could drive away it could be as far as traffic jams don't stop you. If vehicles werent available id say a mile or two. Walking in the heat is not fun. I have land in the white mountains. Even though its 1.5 gas tanks away from Phoenix you need to travel on a rugged dirt road for about 16 miles.

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SvedkaMerc@reddit

Not really about “how far away” but “where”. Somewhere in Alaska would probably be the safest overall.

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Eredani@reddit

IMO, no amount of distance is 'safe' from masses of refugees in a serious crisis. Desperate people will move to anywhere that might appear to be safer and/or have resources.

Even an isolated property in the middle of the woods is going to have visitors. The exceptions might be places just too difficult to get to: middle of the desert compound, mountain top fortress, island retreat, etc.

There are two other options: a hidden bunker that people might walk right by or a plain looking residential house that has been reinforced but blends into the neighborhood. Security through obscurity.

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Most_Art507@reddit

I don't drive, I have a bad hip ,had a heart attack and have angina, I'm not getting much further than half a mile or so.

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shrodikan@reddit

Sounds like you should just bug-in with a beer and watch the world burn.

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17thEmptyVessel@reddit

Only as far as the rural locals just outside the suburbs allow them to travel... In other words, don't plan on it happening.

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Cryyus@reddit

I’m curious what you’re suggesting here

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17thEmptyVessel@reddit

I thought this was common knowledge. At the first sign of trouble, the locals are going to make the roads impassable. The last thing they want is a mass exodus straining their own resources. Every choke point will be blocked. Felled trees or huge disabled vehicles blocking the road, bridges dropped into canyons, you name it. There are dozens of ways to keep people trapped in urban areas. Obviously doesn't prevent anyone from continuing on foot but definitely limits how far far those people can make it.

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Far-Respond-9283@reddit

I really doubt that a bunch of rurals will keep people trapped in urban areas.

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drmike0099@reddit

lol, every time these questions get asked we get a bunch of rural Rambos thinking that they're going to somehow become an elite combat force that can hold dozens of miles of territory against 100x their number of people, many of whom are also armed, just so they don't walk nearby their useless property.

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VadumSemantics@reddit

+1 agree.

I found it a thought provoking read. Among other things, goes into some detail about small-town crowd control for a large urban exodus. Maybe think about what value-add skills you can level up on to make you a community asset (vs. a "move along, buddy."

Only as far as the rural locals outside the suburbs allow them to travel...

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DeafHeretic@reddit

It depends on your locale, and the city you are concerned with - especially the size of the city.

At the very least, you should be farther than it takes a healthy adult to walk in a day.

Preferably, you should be farther than it takes to drive a vehicle in a day.

Of course, the distance you can drive in a day is a LOT farther than than the distance you can walk, and there are not very many places that are that far from a city.

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nostrademons@reddit

I mean the Native Americans weren't exactly safe from all the people fleeing 17th-19th century Europe...

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jnyquest@reddit

May want to add Genghis Kahn and the Vikings while your at it.

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IlliniWarrior1@reddit

you can't use the centering of a city for any kind of refugee traval radius >>> majority of the serious SHTFs won't be a Wham Bam affair - could be a sizable run up period well in advance ....

that means not only self evac - could be a mandatory GOV evac to distant points outside the metro areas - any sizable sheltering build would become a refugee camp - totally dependent on regular GOV supply .....

WHEN - NOT IF - the camps fail - they would be the refugee travel starting point >>> possibly a rural area 100s of miles from their original metro area .......

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lavazone2@reddit

Have a good friend who lives here in Hawaii and he got the ICBM text about incoming, mixed a big costal in his waterbottle and went to the beach.

Frankly I’ve always suspected that he was somewhat disappointed when they all clear was given.

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dfeeney95@reddit

Do you have a 6 month rainy day fund saved up?

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yamanp@reddit

I read a post on here a while back that talked about this. Nuclear blast and major arteries from the city were the main concern. If you hunkered in a basement to stay away from radiation and there was gridlock, surprisingly, they said 7 miles was enough distance.

I'll try to find the post and link it later.

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WinLongjumping1352@reddit

I would think that you don't care about the 90-95% who are either casualty or bugging in (basement is best against nukes, I suppose), but the farther out you are the more experienced and prepping-skilled survivalists you'll find due to the survivorship bias involved. (People who are not fit and perfect preppers will be stopped due to some circumstances that they did not plan for).

So instead of asking for people crawling out there on foot like zombies, I'd rather ask, what is the best mode of transportation to get out of that locale. It could be bicycles as they are least affected by EMPs (I suppose, unless you got an electric bike). Or when government assistance is there, re-routed public transport (trains!)

And keep in mind, that the farther out you go from the impact crater, the less density you can expect (as the circumference of a circle is linear to its radius/diameter, and 2nd order to its area).

So in the direct suburbia, you can expect lots of people in emergency shelters (schools/gyms repurposed), given that your examples are large cities, maybe the government busses people to other cities (and their emergency shelters).

Realistically, I'd expect people to be fine in the next small town over (as there is nothing), if that town is upwind (due to fallout).

This whole questioning by OP sounds very American minded prepping for a more social European event (Emergency preparedness, evacuations and behavior is assumed to be less "everyone is out there for themselves") tbh; I could even imagine that the government would shut down certain roads (highways) for emergency use only (including addressing the issues, i.e. firefighters, civil emergency response, police but also evacuation busses), so taking your own car out of there may be the least promising solution.

Also if there are nukes flying, there is an outside aggressor, which makes people behave very differently; compare Americas immediate response to 9/11 (such as how to treat the passengers of the grounded airplaines) and Covid ("it's hitting just big cities, lol"). So I'd expect people to step up to help out the less fortunates.

Thanks for the mods to keep it civil:

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mystery-pirate@reddit

As you said, the further out you go the more likely the other people are also preppers. And I think it would be a mistake to assume they will be friendly as in "oh hey, another prepper, let's be friends." Knowing the value of supplies and seeing the potential for this lasting years, the prepper with a year's supply of food might be thinking "here's a chance to double my reserves in an instant".

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Industry_Signal@reddit

Having worked with refugees in conflict zones, a lot of it is luck, a lot more of it is planning and contingency planning. Most of the survivors I talked to had a network of places to go and had access to good information about which direction to move on a given day. Most were on foot quickly, and the “soldiers” they were avoiding were usually significantly more mobile. Every day would be picking a destination “away” from trouble with a meander toward some safe zone. Heavy survivor bias in the info though. As resources run out, away from crowds seems to be a good plan.

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Fantastic-Couple-185@reddit

Everyone is talking cars. If it’s an EMP, they’ll be useless. I keep a bicycle in the back of my truck in case I’m at work WTSHTF.

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DEADFLY6@reddit

I think its best to already be gone when it happens. Panic is a funny thing. People were knocking wheel chair bound people out of the way to escape the twin towers. Its hard to think about unbuckling the seat belt when your car is on fire. Let alone a nuclear explosion. It'll be a stampede. Im pretty close to 2 or 3 targets and im down wind from 2 of them. Im just gonna pour a bowl of cereal and sit on the couch and eat. Load up my thing and keep nearby. I'd rather take myself out on my own terms.

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Glittering_Party8077@reddit

Watched YesTheory on YouTube about the 370,000 bunkers in Switzerland from WWII, when the Nazis had taken all the countries surrounding the Swiss. Switzerland was going to blow all the bridges and take to their bunkers in the Alps. As the video said, while other countries planned their offensive moves against Hitler, the Swiss went on the defense. Yes, taxes are high but peace of mind is priceless.

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TexFarmer@reddit

A good target would seem to be 3 hours+ drive time, which = 3-5 days walking time.

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Overall-Tailor8949@reddit

If it's a full "cold-war era" sized exchange I'd rather sit on my front porch with my wife and a snifter of scotch and wait for the light bulbs to go off.

Shortof that though, say massive EMP's, Carrington style event and societal collapse. A couple of hours from major (>200k population) metro areas by car and you should be pretty safe.

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itspoetry00@reddit

What time is giants game this week

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davidm2232@reddit

I wouldn't want to be within 200 miles of a city like London or Paris. I am 200 miles from NYC and 50 miles from a city of 100k and that makes me nervous.

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my11c3nts@reddit

Well..... you could try out the nuke map for a rough estimate .... However, if it's nuclear, not only do you have to worry about fallout radiation, but you have to worry about the EMP blast frying circuits car's, devices, basic amenities, it's gonna shut everything down until parts can be repaired or replaced.....

Oh, and don't forget you to take into consideration weather factors for residual fallout dispersal.

Now, as for movement, depending on my size, you could go with small infantry tactics. Send 1-2 people at a time to scout and recon the area, then a good portion of the group followed by a rearegard. But that's only if you have enough people who are disciplined.

Now, if you take into consideration the average walking speed of a normal average human being, it is about 4 miles per hour on a flat level road with no obstacles. You can get about 25-30 miles before you have to set up camp and check up on everyone to see how they're doing.... However, depending on obstacles and barriers, your range will be lesser.

It depends on the disaster, the number of people in your group, and your mobility situation..... Without truly knowing all of that, I couldn't give you an estimate.

Now, as for your city, that all depends on if someone deems it important enough or not to target it specifically. However, know that if it is targeted, you're going to be gridlocked and have to be moving on foot or potentially bicycle to try and make it out of the city..... If you survive the initial situation....

Me. Personally, I live 4 miles out of a small town in the middle of nowhere that is not close to anything...........

I wish you luck, and below is the link to Nuke Maps.

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

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melympia@reddit

A crowd? Probably not that far. Because not many people will have a working car with a full tank, for example. Not after a nuke.

But it doesn't necessarily take a crowd to kill you. A single person sniping is enough to kill you. And a single person can, with some luck, get very far.

Also, not everbody will be a survivor of the blast - there will also be refugees from the surrounding area. People afraid of not being safe at home.

Overall, I'd say there is no safe distance where lawlessness rules.

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thelapoubelle@reddit

I think you're looking for r/prepperfanfiction

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preppers-ModTeam@reddit

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Tinman5278@reddit

No such thing. You might be 500 Km away and they might not reach you the day of. But of people survived they'll keep moving until they find whatever they deem to be safety. You'd need a bigger planet.