What’s Reported

In 2024, Russia—through its state-owned geological company Rosgeo—conducted seismic surveys beneath the Weddell Sea, a region within Antarctica that overlaps with territorial claims by the UK, Argentina, and Chile. These surveys suggested the presence of up to 511 billion barrels of potential oil—roughly ten times the North Sea’s production over the past 50 years .

The discovery was highlighted in British parliamentary hearings and raised international concern, though Russia asserts the work was purely scientific, not preparatory for drilling .

Experts, however, caution that such findings are speculative. They emphasize that seismic imaging alone cannot confirm oil reserves—only drilling can do that. So, while the geological structure may suggest hydrocarbon potential, it doesn’t confirm actual recoverable oil .

What Does the Law Say—and Who Owns It?

1. Antarctic Governance

The 1959 Antarctic Treaty—signed by many countries including the UK, Argentina, Chile, the US, Russia (as Soviet Union), etc.—establishes Antarctica as a space dedicated to peace and science, explicitly freezing territorial claims and prohibiting sovereign annexation .

1. Ban on Mineral Exploitation

The 1991 Madrid Protocol (entered into force in 1998) designates the continent a "natural reserve, devoted to peace and science" and prohibits mineral resource activities, including hydrocarbon extraction—unless done for scientific research .

This prohibition remains binding, and there is no current legal pathway to exploit oil in Antarctica.

1. What Could Change in the Future?

In 2048, the Madrid Protocol reaches its 50-year review mark. At that point, amendments could be proposed—like lifting the mining ban—but they would require:

1. Approval by at least three-quarters of the original decision-making parties;

2. Adoption of a binding legal framework with environmental safeguards; and

3. Ratification by a supermajority—including all initial signatories .

If such a regime isn’t enacted within 3 years of adoption, any party can withdraw from the protocol, effectively bypassing the restrictions .

So Who Owns the Oil?

No one “owns” the deposit. Under current international law, sovereign claims are suspended, and mineral exploitation is banned.

Russia’s surveys do not grant ownership—and any extraction would be a violation unless the treaty is amended, which is a complex, multi-decade process.

Territorial claimants like the UK, Chile, and Argentina could see this as a push to revisit Antarctic governance, but legally, there's no recognized national ownership at present.