Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment
Posted by cappsthelegend@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 31 comments
Collapse related because it shows a regime shift in 2015 regarding sea ice extent around Antarctica. Large decreases in both Maximums and Minimums combined with a sharp increase in Radiative Forcing Anomaly around the same time.
"A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than theanticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown."
Link to Paul Beckwith discussing this paper in the comments
I also want to hijack this to ask why no one talks about the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). The AABW is 30-40% of the global ocean volume and 58% of the global ocean floor compared to just 26% for North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). As salt water freezes, it expels salt which forms a hypersaline, dense, cold current. The current carries oxygen to the deepest parts of the ocean, helping to support life at the sea floor.
If this current collapses, as some scientists predict it could by 2050, the impacts would be more than catastrophic. Ignoring the sheer amount of heat and carbon sequestered by the current (As by then, further increases in warming would be moot imo, explain why in a second), the lack of oxygen in the deep ocean will crash that ecosystem. Why is that bad? The deep water ecosystem provides the bulk of the nutrient rich water that phytoplankton rely on. Phytoplankton being the driver of 50-85% of our oxygen... well, that is why I said further warming would be moot...
Everyone always focuses on what are we going to eat as temps rise, where are people going to get water...
I think about, what will we breathe?
Alex5173@reddit
Meanwhile the CO2 concentration inches closer and closer to dangerous levels for humans, as well
GroceryKind2525@reddit
Hopefully by 2050 I will breathe nothing, having no kids either and I won't weep for cunt humanity. We fkin deserve it, the way we always treated this planet and all life on it. The beautiful biodiversity is a different matter though, I am so sad for all the animals and plants that will be eradicated forever.
Cptawesome23@reddit
This means we will soon be able to build strip malls in the Antarctic and speculate on housing prices near the south pool!
Icy_Geologist2959@reddit
At last!!!
Uber_Alleyways@reddit
I'm going to become a plume of CO2.
TuneGlum7903@reddit
Chiming in just to point out that the "dimming" of the Albedo and a MASSIVE increase in ENERGY going into the Climate System.
Started in 2014.
2014 seems to keep coming up as the year that things start to "go crazy" in the Climate System.
jizzlevania@reddit
I always assumed the tipping point was 2012 when the Mayan future predicting calendar stopped.
theStaircaseProject@reddit
Does it though? I thought the calendar simply rolled over to a new cycle of sorts. The calendar is filled with cycles upon cycles so there’s often one always completion
BBR0DR1GUEZ@reddit
That's only on leap cycles.
JonathanApple@reddit
Yeah, the year I had a child, F me, it all feels so horrible.
iakrom@reddit
I think that’s when they started really cleaning up fine particulate pollution especially in global shipping.
FalseConsequence4319@reddit
..not good, bad even..
feo_sucio@reddit
I wouldn't worry about it. Air is mostly nitrogen. It would take a really long time to deplete the oxygen in the atmosphere. Hundreds of years.
cappsthelegend@reddit (OP)
I did some quick math and digging and yes it would take nearly 1 Million years for the biomass on earth to breathe the oxygen. However, at 2 Quadrillion kg, the Boreal forest (currently ablaze) holds enough mass to consume a good chunk of that oxygen. I didn't look at all the other forests or total weight of the biomass in other places currently on fire but I would imagine it only adds to the issue.
Conscious_Yard_8429@reddit
The old burning candle in a jar trick shows that the candle goes out when oxygen level reaches 17% if I remember right. Atmospheric oxygen is at about 21%. So forest fires should stop burning eventually. Unfortunately, the mamalian body cannot function either at 17%!
cappsthelegend@reddit (OP)
Somewhere between 15-20% for full combustion yes but as low as 5% for a smolder... In any event... 17% being unlivable means my fears are warranted
Radioactdave@reddit
Big enough nuke(s) might do it.
Celestial_Mechanica@reddit
SMOC has not only collapsed, but reversed.
screendoorblinds@reddit
This was actually a mistranslation of what the study found, but it looks like it's hit or miss on it the original reports on it were updated or not. Full disclosure - the fact that they don't claim a reversal doesn't mean it's good news, it's that they're saying they seem to be seeing a phase change which still isn't good news.
Here are some sources that discuss it for your reference - I know this paper was a hot topic for a bit(in part because it doesn't actually mention reversal itself, but the initial press releases did) but seems it had since been overshadowed by the sheer amount of oceanic findings and papers this year.
One user who had discussed with the author about the mistranslation
The corrected press release from the group here
Celestial_Mechanica@reddit
Excellent stuff - this is why I love this sub and especially its more devoted and helpful users. Feels a bit like reddit of old.
CannyGardener@reddit
That's...that doesn't seem normal. Is that normal??
Celestial_Mechanica@reddit
Never before seen.
https://iefworld.org/SMOCreversal2025
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
This is outdated. The current itself did not reverse, it was a miscommunication, as stated by the original research team. What reversed was the trend in southern ocean salinity. It was freshening, due to melting ice, but this trend turned around and the water is now becoming more salty.
Here, the corrected communication from the team that did the study:
https://www.icm.csic.es/en/news/change-southern-ocean-structure-can-have-climate-implications
Celestial_Mechanica@reddit
Aha, good - some positive news for once! I had only picked up the original comm through an ESA-related outlet.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
Wouldn't call it *good* news to be honest, but it is more accurate bad news. Increasing salinity is still bad, it causes faster melting of the ice.
Celestial_Mechanica@reddit
I'll grasp whatever positive straws I can get my hands on these days! With all the pressure already on the antarctic, SMOC reversal would have sealed the deal. All the oceanographic studies over the past months are grim. I mean, many here knew, but each new finding is still like a little punch to the gut, so a potential phase change rather than a likely cataclysmic reversal - - I'll take it for now. ✔️
CannyGardener@reddit
*Ralph 'I'm in danger' meme*
ConfusedMaverick@reddit
With a lot of the catastrophes we are facing, how worrying they are comes down to
Ocean death is catastrophic for the wider biosphere over many hundreds of years, and it would take even longer for oxygen to run out...
... But modern human civilisation (and possibly even all humans) will be long gone by then.
I tend to focus my attention on the things that are coming down the pipeline sooner, and particularly (chauvinistic, I know) those that affect people.
Mountain_Fig_9253@reddit
There has never been a better time to experience what you want to experience than today. Take advantage of the time we have.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/cappsthelegend:
Paul Beckwith discussing the paper linked above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz_MilyXkk0
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1n3bz1f/emerging_evidence_of_abrupt_changes_in_the/nbcako0/
cappsthelegend@reddit (OP)
Paul Beckwith discussing the paper linked above.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz_MilyXkk0