The Crisis Report - 116 : Things to Consider, a look at the pieces on the board.

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Propaganda-Ad-7430@reddit

I watched your interview the full two parts it was very compelling , I love your articles & I would love if you made youtube videos too. I think it could share the information more broadly too.

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S1ckn4sty44@reddit

u/TuneGlum7903

First, thanks for all that you do. I've thanked you before, but I always feel like you've put so much effort into these reports that even just a simple thank you isn't enough.

Second, in a lot of your articles, you talk about +2°C by 2035. If my understanding is correct, the amount of aerosols that we push into the air(which I believe you brought up before and again in this article) we are hiding ~ .5°C of hiding if not more. The previous studies I saw on this were years ago, saying .5°C->.8°C being hidden from aerosols.

In that case, we are already at 2°C. We just aren't feeling some of it because of the aerosols. What happens to the numbers if we are already at 2°C? I mean, I understand everything is collapsing regardless of what our point of today is, but it feels like if we are already at 2°C then I'm surprised you're saying we will hit it by 2035.

Every thing I've seen from you is spot on, but this is just one thing I've thought a lot about since I saw that original article years ago(can't remember where I saw it).

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TuneGlum7903@reddit (OP)

Thank you for the kind words.

So, what I have said is that we will be at +2°C by 2035, at "the latest". That's my "conservative" prediction.

I have also stated, that I personally would bet on +2°C being a little earlier. Between 2030 and 2035, probably around 2032/2033.

In one of my articles I said that +2°C by 2030 was possible BUT it was worst case.

Using the consensus baseline for the current warming of +1.6°C for 2024 and a slightly cooler +1.5°C for 2025. I stand by those predictions/estimates.

Now, there is a type of Alarmist who will argue that the consensus baseline is too low. They will argue that if you measure from 1765 or 1820 that we are already over +2°C IRL. We just chose an arbitrary 1850 date and that actually distorts how we perceive/measure warming.

I TOTALLY agree with that argument. However, it cripples you in discussing the issue with anyone other than fellow "believers". Everyone else immediately tunes you out if you don't use the standard baseline.

Plus I don't think where we are at is exactly the thing to be worried about. The implications of the paleoclimate data is that we screwed up in the first place.

The paleoclimate data indicates that each iteration of 2XCO2 causes +8°C of warming.

The first iteration was from 180ppm to 360ppm causing +8°C of warming.

However we jigger the numbers what really happened between 280ppm and 360ppm was ×2°C of warming. We just haven't seen it yet and measured it badly.

The next iteration of 2XCO2 will cause another +8°C of warming. Taking us to +10°C over our baseline at only +760ppmCO2.

That's the correct way to SEE/Frame the issue. Don't take the exact number for warming to "literally", instead put it in that context.

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S1ckn4sty44@reddit

That's the correct way to SEE/Frame the issue. Don't take the exact number for warming too "literally", instead put it in that context.

Thank you for your well thought out response. It definitely puts it into perspective. I always forget that when you're giving us estimates/timelines of what you believe is going to happen that it is always the best case scenario.

After much research, including a lot of your articles, I'd say we are going to be runaway warming very soon.

Combine that with all of the things going on across the world, and we are about to see horrific things that even movies couldn't do justice.

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PlausiblyCoincident@reddit

Seems a link is missing in this section?:

Surviving a Climate Disaster

Practical Advice.

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TuneGlum7903@reddit (OP)

SS: The Crisis Report - 116 : Things to Consider, a look at the pieces on the board.

This is sort of an "ensemble piece" where I take a whole lot of threads and weave them together. I see a pattern in all the "noise" of the world.

I see COLLAPSE happening.

What do you see?

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER:

I write and post on a number of sites and have been attacked for having no “academic credentials” in any field related to climate science. I do not wish to misrepresent myself as a “climate scientist” or “climate expert” to anyone who is reading this or any of my other climate related posts, so let us be clear:

I am not a climatologist, meteorologist, paleo-climatologist, geoscientist, ecologist, or climate science specialist. I am a motivated individual studying the issue using publicly available datasets and papers.

The analysis I am presenting is my own. I make no claim to “insider or hidden knowledge” and all the points I discuss can be verified with only a few hours of research on the Internet.

The analysis and opinion I present, in this and my other climate articles is exactly that: my opinion. I hope anyone reading it finds it useful, informative, and insightful but in the end, it is just my opinion.

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bipolarearthovershot@reddit

Did you see that a volcano from 2022 added 10% extra water vapor to our atmosphere? Mix that with extra water from climate change and pumping aquifers and the floods are really wild. It feels like a new biblical flood every day on r/disasterupdate

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ansibleloop@reddit

Yeah the Hunga Tonga eruption is often left out

That's probably why the jump in 2023 was so high

Less aerosols from shipping and increased water vapour

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daviddjg0033@reddit

I keep seeing this but I still see that the Hunga Tonga eruption was not a direct or statistically sig driver of precipitation.

In other words, what humans are doing with CO2 or CH4 and now the feedbacks like the Amazon burning and other ecosystems becoming net emitters of carbon from wildfires far outweighs the possible H20 impacts:

Some clouds reflect sunlight at different levels of heigh

When you inject water into the stratosphere (like that volcano) it is different than clouds.

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Polimber@reddit

Will without that education you must know nothing then.../s

Stuffy people thinking that only they have access to knowledge. Keep going with what you are doing. Many people worth the "appropriate" education are working for the oil companies saying this does not exist, so education is no guarantee of the right information.

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DillPickleGoonie@reddit

Thank you for the links! I am writing a thesis on something related and I’ll be utilizing some of them. As always, thank you!

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Twisted_Fate@reddit

The future of European cuisine is Corn.

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Quarks4branes@reddit

Thank you Richard. As always, a very sobering read.

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j_mantuf@reddit

Excellent summation. Appreciate it as always.

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StatementBot@reddit

The following submission statement was provided by /u/TuneGlum7903:

SS: The Crisis Report - 116 : Things to Consider, a look at the pieces on the board.

This is sort of an "ensemble piece" where I take a whole lot of threads and weave them together. I see a pattern in all the "noise" of the world.

I see COLLAPSE happening.

What do you see?

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER:

I write and post on a number of sites and have been attacked for having no “academic credentials” in any field related to climate science. I do not wish to misrepresent myself as a “climate scientist” or “climate expert” to anyone who is reading this or any of my other climate related posts, so let us be clear:

I am not a climatologist, meteorologist, paleo-climatologist, geoscientist, ecologist, or climate science specialist. I am a motivated individual studying the issue using publicly available datasets and papers.

The analysis I am presenting is my own. I make no claim to “insider or hidden knowledge” and all the points I discuss can be verified with only a few hours of research on the Internet.

The analysis and opinion I present, in this and my other climate articles is exactly that: my opinion. I hope anyone reading it finds it useful, informative, and insightful but in the end, it is just my opinion.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1mmww5r/the_crisis_report_116_things_to_consider_a_look/n8124x3/

[-]

StatementBot@reddit

The following submission statement was provided by /u/TuneGlum7903:

SS: The Crisis Report - 116 : Things to Consider, a look at the pieces on the board.

This is sort of an "ensemble piece" where I take a whole lot of threads and weave them together. I see a pattern in all the "noise" of the world.

I see COLLAPSE happening.

What do you see?

MANDATORY DISCLAIMER:

I write and post on a number of sites and have been attacked for having no “academic credentials” in any field related to climate science. I do not wish to misrepresent myself as a “climate scientist” or “climate expert” to anyone who is reading this or any of my other climate related posts, so let us be clear:

I am not a climatologist, meteorologist, paleo-climatologist, geoscientist, ecologist, or climate science specialist. I am a motivated individual studying the issue using publicly available datasets and papers.

The analysis I am presenting is my own. I make no claim to “insider or hidden knowledge” and all the points I discuss can be verified with only a few hours of research on the Internet.

The analysis and opinion I present, in this and my other climate articles is exactly that: my opinion. I hope anyone reading it finds it useful, informative, and insightful but in the end, it is just my opinion.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1mmww5r/the_crisis_report_116_things_to_consider_a_look/n80raya/

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TuneGlum7903@reddit (OP)

SS: The Crisis Report - 116 : Things to Consider, a look at the pieces on the board.

This is sort of an "ensemble piece" where I take a whole lot of threads and weave them together. I see a pattern in all the "noise" of the world.

I see COLLAPSE happening.

What do you see?