>"While a growing proportion of foreigners — including an influx of some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees — is filling labor gaps, **Poland would need to accept an additional 2.75 million working-age migrants by 2032 in order to hold the proportion of retirees to the workforce steady**, according to a report by the Social Security Office in Poland."
Retirement or a homogeneous society: Pick one
What holds Poland back from doing this. They could aim for skilled workers, or at least people with college degrees (even the equivalent of an associate’s). I think with the right marketing a lot of people would be tempted. If Poland for example goes to countries like Colombia or Venezuela to “recruit” high skilled workers, I’d guess a TON of people would take them up on their offer. They could also potentially do this slowly enough so that integration is not a huge issue
Poland would never do that. They vehemently rejected Syrian refugees but were more than welcoming to Ukrainians fleeing a very similar situation.
Their government only seems to consider other Slavs to be human.
I could say it's due to cultural proximity, the fact that common enemy is fought, or due to the issues countries with 4-10 times more gdp per capita have with muslim immigrants.
But no. It's because only Slavs are human !
Slava slavskim Slavom !
Once the situation becomes dire they’ll massively open their doors and then a huge crisis will ensue. 😅 feel like it would be far better to be proactive about it, and I think Latin Americans, having their same religion and being westernized and wanting to leave their countries, would be a good fit. But hey - what do I know lol.
>If Poland for example goes to countries like Colombia or Venezuela to “recruit” high skilled workers, I’d guess a TON of people would take them up on their offer.
Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore are already doing that. Highly skilled workers, specially programmers, engineers and other STEM field are in very high demand worldwide. For highly skilled workers, there are much better choices than Poland.
Also, Poland needs lots of people to work of farms, construction, manufacturing, retail, cleaning toilets, etc...
Honestly I think people in those two nations (just to give an example) would also be willing to take on those jobs if they came with the opportunity to migrate legally to Europe
Also, many Latino migrants already have family or family friends living in America. It’s also much easier to go back and forth between countries when you want to revisit the homeland.
That's not true at all. The issue Europeans have with migration is high crime and high unemployment. Europeans don't have any issues with migration from SE Asia, for example. Latin Americans are well accepted in Europe, and statistics shows they integrate well.
Because their numbers are low. The higher the numbers of your countrymen somewhere, the easier it is to wall yourself off, and if the country of origin is such that the majority of the migrants are poor and/or comparatively unskilled, scorn will swiftly follow.
You can see this, for example, with Japanese migrants to Europe - there's infrastructure in place where they never have to learn a single word of the local languages unless they want to, so most never do.
Difference is just that Japan is a highly industrialised country, so the people coming to Europe are generally white collar workers whose most common crime is speeding or parking violations.
A similar example, up until recently, was Syria. Before the civil war, the majority of Syrian immigrants to Europe were skilled workers - my father's doctor, for example, is a Syrian who came here in the late 90s. He's fluent in the local language, and so are his wife and kids... because, at the time, the total number of Syrians was measured in thousands in a country of several ten millions. Now, that's just not the case anymore, the numbers are easily into six digits, many of which are unskilled, severely traumatised or both.
>migrate legally to Europe
Would be probably a problem since they would leave Poland for Germany as soon as they got the papers to do so. Not only is Germany far wealthier it also has a lot more immigrants and the society is friendlier to immigrants.
It would work but they just cant expect the same level of skilled workers coming to Germany for example to come to Poland
They would have to lower their criteria or requirements somewhat
I think immigration from poorer Eastern Europe would be more appropriate for all parties involved. From Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Moldova and other former USSR, etc. Definitely a ton of people there that would happily move to Poland.
I mean yeah but since they need close to three million people, I was thinking of how to accomplish that. They already have a ton of Ukrainian immigrants, not sure if they want Russians and/or Belarusians. Moldovans seem like they could be a good option, or provide incentives to south Slavic nations that are not yet part of the EU?
No worries, we've been on that treadmill for years now and the article is a tad alarmist.
"In 2021, 504.2 thousand work permits for foreigners were issued in Poland. There were 97.7 thousand more of them than in 2020 and 438.4 thousand more compared with 2015. They were still most often issued to Ukrainian citizens."
https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/labour-market/studies/work-permits-for-foreigners-in-poland-in-2021,12,5.html
> What holds Poland back from doing this. They could aim for skilled workers, or at least people with college degrees
Compared to Mediterranean zone, Poland is a shit place to live, people prefer 6 months of summer and mild winters
I see what you’re saying… but with a smart PR campaign and providing people with legal, practical means to immigrate to Europe, I think they could make themselves attractive to people eager to legally emigrate to Europe. Just my two cents of course. Maybe they should run a test campaign xD
Monocultures are less resilient. If the population acts wisely it's no deal to adopt 2.75 million immigrants over the course of 9 years.
Certainly not as black and white as you try to point it.
>Monocultures are less resilient.
Someone needs to tell American nationalists, or any ethnocentrist that. It's something botanists understand by default. You can't breed yourself in the human version of a toy dog and expect to be top dog in a world of wolves.
Oh damn a country of tens of million cant survive without taking in some other races? Despite having survived just fine for literally centuries? Someone should tell china, they havent had variety of like 4 thousands years, might fall over any day now.. Apparently having more than 1 brain cell makes you a white supremacist these days.
China has 56 officially recognised minority groups. Unofficially there are even more. Also historically China's borders were much smaller. Other races were assimilated into China over time. Take, for example, the Manchus. They conquered China in the 17th century. Now, their lands have become part of China and they are on the verge of dying out.
Apparently white supremacists do in fact have one brain cell. China is one of the most diverse countries on Earth, it has assimilated other "races" for thousands of years.
This guy thinks that Chinese all have common ancestry as they look quite the same to him! No matter the vast size and history of the country, with countess races mingling for thousand of years. I guess it will be really hard for him to read more than 10 lines in a book.
Are you kidding? Monocultures don't occur in nature. The ones we have are an easy target for pests and require massive effort to maintain. They also destroy the ground, making them unsustainable on their own.
Look at Japan and South Korea for a glaring example. They are going through demographic crisis much worse than most European countries.
Even china is on path for an even worse demographic crisis due to their sheer size and numbers. Imagine tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of people struggling to get their basic needs met in their golden years...
Now compare these countries to US. Its actually on path to get even stronger superpower in future. They are effectively a brain magnet of the whole world.
Japan knows it is a transient problem and has historically had a much smaller population yhan it does now.
Seems to me it makes more sense to take a temporarily damaged econmy than it does to to pursue destroying your culture and country through overpopulation.
When you take the long view all this immigration just pusjes the problem to the next generation.
That just means they have to brain drain another country to sustain themselves, in this case Ukraine.
Are there ways to sustain a retirement system that isn't the human capital equivalent of extractive colonialism?
Well you really just need a healthy demographic pyramid. The second birth rates collapse, you are in trouble. No economic system in theory could support 90% its population being 90 years old.
Lots of people think you can tax your way out of the problem but it’s just not possible. Even if you stole 100% of the wealth of all American billionaires, you’d only fund federal health expenditures for like a year. Then you’re back to square one with a destroyed economy. This is also why communist countries heavily taxed child free men and women. There is no real solution beyond having a healthy demographic pyramid. All economic systems rely on that. Even without money, there are only so many patients a nurse can handle.
Technology will help the burden a little but we are not making strides in productivity fast enough to offset the looming demographic cliff.
Ukraine is already pretty brain drained… an everything else drained.
There’s a war going on and even if it ends today that country is going to be fucked for decades to come. No way people would want to come home to a destroyed country.
Yeah their demographics suck but they did just get like 1.3 million new Ukrainian refugees which should help even things out for bit. They talk so much shit to Russia but if anyone should be thanking them, it seems like it's Poland, since they got color of refugees their government seems love lol
Germany needs 1.5 million immigrants each year to compensate for the 1 million that move away and the demographic change.
Unfortunately our politicians are too afraid to explain this to the population and the right wingers dominate the debate with fear mongering and disinformation.
How do uneducated, culturally very different immigrants who start their "career" by ignoring laws compensate for German children who go through 20years of education, brought up with German work ethics and values? Germany's economy needs highly skilled experts with grit, conscientiousness and other cultural values which take many generations to ingrain in the subconscious. All official labor statistics clearly show that unskilled migration is a net negative for society.
>How do uneducated, culturally very different immigrants who start their "career" by ignoring immigration laws compensate for German children who go through 20years of education, brought up with German work ethics and values?
Very easily, by doing the hard jobs those "pure bred Arya-Germanic children" don't want to do lol
>Germany's economy needs highly skilled experts with grit, conscientiousness and other cultural values which take centruties and many generations to ingrain in the subconscious.
Yeah, no it doesn't. That's not how modern economies work like. Machines do 90% of the manufacturing and there's not a lot of skill in grunt office work. The German economy needs bodies and lots of them to do everything from take out the trash to clean the offices to work as delivery drivers to actually build the homes and high rises that people live in.
> All official labor statistics clearly show that unskilled migration is a net negative for a high tech society like Germany, and that even third generation "guest workers" have rejected to assimilate.
You have no statistics whatsoever to back any of that up. By the third generation, people assimilate as much as a family which has been there for 10 generations. That's an actual statistic lol
Dude, just look at the statistics. "Refugees" live from government assistance for decades. 50-90% is the official statistics, depending on country of origin. No, Germany's economy doesn't need uneducated bodies.
Dude, literally every single person lives on some form of government assistance lol
And uneducated bodies is exactly what the German economy needs because they do all the though labor like picking up garbage and construction well the more educated populace goes into things like banking, teaching or starting a business
>But we need quality immigrants and not what we get now.
Explain that for me bud, which countries immigrants do you want? Who do you consider "quality"?
> good luck getting that from the middle east.
aaaand there it is lmao
Bro y'all can't even dog whistle properly looooool, like this is honestly a new level of low I didn't think a human brain on the internet could reach lol
Facts are not a dog whistle.
Knife stabbings, gang rapes and organized crime are at an all time high.
Denying reality is exactly the reason why Germany is now a failed state.
"I'm a racist, I'm not even going to pretend to dog whistle!" lmao
>Knife stabbings, gang rapes and organized crime are at an all time high.
Bro you did not just say "Immigrant's are knife stabbing gang rapist criminals!" loooool
> Denying reality is exactly the reason why Germany is now a failed state.
This really coming from the man who just said GERMANY is a failed state? lmaaaaaaao 🤣🤣🤣
Why aren't germany giving visas to legal immigrants from outside the eu?
If a muslim doesn't want to make a run for it and just applies legally they have a much bigger chance to get into poland than germany.
Its not easy to communicate why they only prefer illegal immigrants but legal educated ones can suck it.
>If a muslim doesn't want to make a run for it and just applies legally they have a much bigger chance to get into poland than germany.
Because why would anyone want to go to Poland over Germany? lol
What does that even argue for? Germans can have incomprehensible immigration policies because people want to go there?
I used this source:
[https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Residence\_permits\_-\_statistics\_on\_first\_permits\_issued\_during\_the\_year&oldid=584076](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Residence_permits_-_statistics_on_first_permits_issued_during_the_year&oldid=584076)
Maybe I'm wrong and misunderstood it
I used this source: [https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:F3\_First\_residence\_permits\_issued\_relative\_to\_the\_population\_size,\_2021\_(per\_1\_000\_population)\_v2.png](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:F3_First_residence_permits_issued_relative_to_the_population_size,_2021_(per_1_000_population)_v2.png)
From here: [https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/08/11/poland-issues-eus-most-residence-permits-to-immigrants-for-fifth-year-running/](https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/08/11/poland-issues-eus-most-residence-permits-to-immigrants-for-fifth-year-running/)
I hope I didn't misurdestand it
Yes, because there are no examples in history, where cultures went extinct because of mass immigration. I don't say immigration is bad, but it's like a salt in food. Without it, it's tasteless but with too much of it, it's unedible. Politicians who prefer immigration are just lazy to fix birth rates.
> where cultures went extinct because of mass immigration.
List those please. Wait to just blurt out the great replacement theory there bud lol
And the Polish government is actively trying and failing to fix birth rates. So is the Japanese, South Korean and Hungarian ones. Nothing seems to work cause having kids sucks when you live in a place where you don't need too work 60 hours a week to survive.
Every political entity since ancient history had massive waves or immigration/emigration listed as one of the reason it fell. Like the above comment said, states tend to need to be able to control fluxes of people in and out, immigration is not inherently good or bad as long as it is controlled. If not ask the Romans or the Chinese.
The first thing you said isn't true.
>If not ask the Romans or the Chinese.
Dude...did you just compare refugees to the Visigoths and the Mongols? looool, yup. Damn dude, y'all Europeans gotta step up your dog whistling game lmao
Why not?
Most of the goths were either assimilated into the Empire or fight under the Roman army at some point. A good deal of the goths were very romanized and spoke latin. Still, when Rome became unable to control the conditions by which goths settle in the Empire, it became a major factor of its fall.
>The first thing you said isn't true.
Don't pick a quarrel with a historian. I can go on forever.
>Why not?
>
>Most of the goths were either assimilated into the Empire or fought under the Roman army at some point. A good deal of the goths were very romanized and spoke latin. There were goths leading armies and even teaching latin grammar and poetry TO Roman born citizens as early as the second half of the IV century. Funnily enough, romanization barely meant allegiance to the Roman empire.
There's a meriad of reasons the Roman empire fell but the biggest was that it actually didn't. The Eastern Roman empire lasted for another 1000 years until the Ottomans came with their big boi cannons and blew up their walls. They also spoke Greek faaar more than Latin because, and here's the shocking part, nations naturally change the way they speak over time to more suitable dialects.
The Western empire letting in tribes from what is today Germany, Poland and east North East of what is today Switzerland is what kept them alive for so long because the "Romans" themselves had long since gotten rid of the tradition of the "citizen farmer soldier" for the most part, so they increasingly relied on these tribes to fight their wars for them. Which they did because like you said, they all wanted Roman citizenship.
>Still, when Rome became unable to control the conditions by which goths settle in the Empire, it became a major factor of its fall.
The Romans could and did control the conditions which the Goths and other tribes settled as they did with the Visigoths but instead of giving them full citizenship, they kept them as vassals which they could use to pluck manpower and taxed from. People tend to get sick of that after a while.
>The first thing you said isn't true.
>
>Don't pick a quarrel with a historian. I can go on forever.
I actually have a history degree as well and would love to go on forever lol
All true.
I'd only argue that Romans forgetting about their military/civic duties, something that was a talking point for most of the empire's history and that already had started as early as the late Republic (Mario's and Cesar's reforms) was actually a feature rather than a bug. Late Empire Roman army was getting larger specially since the Persians started becoming a major threat in the III century and needed more permanent garrisons, therefore the reforms implemented (limitanei/comitatenses, the growing importance of the auxiliarii... etc). Roman citizens were at that point best left to do other important stuff, rather than patrol the borders and fight in the legions in exchange for lands that were getting more and more scarce.
The rest I totally agree. I can totally understand what the goths wanted from the empire and didn't get from the empire.
But eventually the empire fell because it could not prevent goths and other barbarians from moving to one place to another settling wherever they want.
I'm also tired of pretending that the fall of the empire was due to causes other than mass migration. "Late Empire collected more taxes", sure, because it was more efficient at doing so and had better bureaucracy. Blaming Christianity for a sudden swift in values that somehow destroyed the empire's institutions... Just not true. And so on and so on.
After I read a huge amount about the topic I came to the basic conclusion that the empire was defeated military in many instances, most of the provinces were looted (at least twice) and two of them totally massacred (Britain and Africa), as a result the fiscal revenue dropped, troops available were further reduced and the empire fell to yet more invading goths. It's a simple story, yet it has become complicated because somehow we historians want to make things more complicated that they really are.
It's like, uh, we are historians and cannot admit as a simple explanation like "a human group was defeated and replaced in the governing position by a different human group by means of violence".
>List those please. Wait to just blurt out the great replacement theory there bud lo
Baltic Prussians, Celts, Tatars, natives in America, Siberia and Australia, Romans.
And governments are trying only few years, nothing is instant.
>Baltic Prussians
They were subjected and invaded by the Crusaders
>Celts
We don't much about the Celts but they were invaded by the Romans. They're also still around
> Tatars
Still around
>natives in America
They died of disease but they're still around. Also they were invaded.
> Siberia and Australia
?
>Romans
They didn't die because of immigration, the Western Roman empire fell apart due to political instability which led to the capital being moved 3 times and Rome not having being the capital for 100 years before it was sacked. Also, the Eastern Roman empire lasted for another 1000 years and they had plenty of immigration.
You're comparing immigration to colonization and fucking genocide? Fucking really? And the Romans didn't go anywhere buddy, there's this little boot shaped country you should maybe check out sometime.
>So is the Japanese, South Korean and Hungarian ones.
And the Singaporean, Scandinavian, Italian, Spaniard, Russian, Chinese, Taiwanese, Swiss, Finish...
Not a single government anywhere in the world has been able to revert the collapsing birth rates yet.
>Watch out, you’re going to get the reddit mob on you for daring to say that people should live in an economy where they can afford to have children
So a very poor one then? Cause guess which countries have the most kids bud? I'll give you a hint, it's not Poland or Germany lol
It's a disingenuous argument. There are many arguments to be made, but it boils down to selection pressure.
Poor countries:
* No real retirement system from government or from work
* Children will probably keep doing the same crappy job you did
* Retirement plan is having many children who will provide for you
* Lower education requirements to function in society, so people can start families earlier
* Low absolute cost being out of work to have children because your job is already crappy. If you're a farmer or a factory worker, you can go back to being a farmer or a factory worker once your children are in school/daycare/with grandparents
Rich countries:
* Really high education requirements (like I'm not kidding, you need a Masters degree to stand out now).. probably 25-27 years old before most people are comfortable and able even moving in together as a couple into their big boy apartment with their big boy job)
* Really high cost of living, so it takes a lot longer for someone to be financially comfortable enough to have a child
* Really high cost of real estate, so it takes a long time to afford to live somewhere with enough space for kids
* High cost to being out of work - it's well documented the impact on career advancement for women. Many have to choose if they want children, or a career, and many choose career because childcare is expensive and missing out on 2-5 years of work in rapidly changing fields can be a career death sentence
* Want kids to be successful, but it's hard to dedicate lots of time, energy, and resources to more than a few. Better to focus resources on a single kid and give them the best education and life experience
But IMO the big difference is just financial maturity. People in rich countries take a lot longer to get to a point where they're comfortable enough to have kids since there are many more steps to climb. People in poor countries (or just poor areas in rich countries) don't see the steps, or the steps aren't available to them, so they have kids in whatever conditions they are in now.
>an economy where they can afford to have children
You mean [like](https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/16058.jpeg) Somalia, Niger and Afghanistan? Or maybe Burundi, Mali and Burkina faso? All of these are also known for their political stability, proper treatment of women and quality healthcare, things required to have children according to redditors.
Reddit experts figured it all out, now we can finally solve the low birth rates. It was all so simple!
Immigration *can* be great for the country, but not all immigration is equal. America has a great track record of integrating migrants, but Europe does not. I could wax lyrical about the differences, but suffice it to say, Europe has done a *terrible* job of ensuring the migrants it accepts are a good fit, culturally and economically. This has led to enormous social unrest, and strain on already strained social services. Immigration is making many societies *worse,* so clearly the way migration has been handled is not working.
A sensible discussion would have been, "how do we improve it?" Sadly, parties have not just dismissed any such discussion, they have labelled anyone even *attempting* the discussion, "racist." As problems became worse, anti-migration parties gained more power. Soon there will be no room for a nuanced debate. The window to have a rational debate is almost closed, and it really would behoove those in power and on the left to begin taking the complaints seriously. Democracy requires compromise.
Most immigrants groups integrate perfectly fine, no crime, high employment, no welfare abuse. Net gain, not net drain.
The problem is that about half of the people Europe has taken in are straight from the village across the MENA region specifically. These are people that wouldn't even be be able to immigrate into their neighboring countries let alone the developed world, but Europe had no standards for far too long.
Nothing wrong with the poorest/least educated, as those from China, India, LatAm integrate fine eventually, MENA village people are something else.
>Nothing wrong with the poorest/least educated, as those from China, India, LatAm integrate fine eventually, MENA village people are something else.
Ok racist lol
Which are those „many societies that got worse“ from immigration?
All studies I have seen come to the opposite conclusion.
You guys don‘t seem to understand that most immigrants work and pay into the social systems. The fact that there are some trouble makers doesn’t invalidate the overall benefit.
Show a single study that says its "better". Just because some sector got a economic boost from cheap labour doesnt mean you can put fingers in your ears and hum real loud about the 50 other consequences. Immigration has always been very controversial issue, literally everywhere. Almost like there are good reasons for it. Its also one of the main causes of the rise of the far right. I know pretentious redditors like to take a good sniff and go "they're just all evil, ignore then", right as trump gets elected and all, but you cant change human nature. You *can* change immigration policies.
This goes both ways, show me a single study that shows it got worse. Germany would be meaningless by now without the massive influx of Italian and Turkish workers. A certain increase in crimes doesn't prove an overall disadvantage for societies or what "50 consequences" are you talking about?
*Its also one of the main causes of the rise of the far right.*
The main cause is that it's easy to use immigrants as a scapegoat and deny the necessity and benefits for society.
> Which are those „many societies that got worse“ from immigration?
[Denmark, for example.](https://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/nyheder-analyser-publ/bagtal/2019/2019-02-18-fakta-om-indvandrere-og-efterkommere-i-danmark) Non-Western migrants commit much more crime, and work. much less.
[Sweden, for a second example.](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12115-019-00436-8) Migrants are far overrepresented in crime.
You say "most immigrants work and pay into the social systems,"](https://www.dst.dk/da/Statistik/nyheder-analyser-publ/bagtal/2019/2019-02-18-fakta-om-indvandrere-og-efterkommere-i-danmark) but that's just not true. I refer you to the Danish government report. Most Syrians don't work, and when they do, they don't earn enough to cover their social costs. Ditto for migrants from many other nations. You're incorrectly assuming that Europe follows the American model, and it does not.
It's true that several longitudinal studies have shown positive correlation with GDP and migration. I'm not disputing this association (though the research is hardly conclusive). I'm explaining that there are many other factors to consider than top line GDP.
> America has a great track record of integrating migrants
Does it really? As far as i can tell america has by very far the biggest internal racial issues of any country on the planet. I guess except the ones where one group just genocides the other, but america did that too, just happens to have finished a long while ago.
I agree that America has many racial issues, but they are, by and large, not caused by immigrants. At least not what sociologists refer to as immigrants. Immigrants in America tend to have low unemployment and commit less crime than natives.
Dude, I'm an immigrant, so this isn't shit on anyone specifically, so I'm not aiming at immigrants from middle east (worked with many of them, still have colleagues), but Germany needs 1.5m workers a year, not immigrants. If I understood well, from 2012. they have accepted 1 million working immigrants from Syria, in 11 years 55% of them are working, cca 35% full time, 20% part time (probably on social too). So if you think just accepting people in your country will resolve your problems, I have some bad news for you.
So from 5 people from my hometown which I know here, 3 are on off on social care, they would work a bit, then just take sick leaves, get fired, and go to job center, and then spend at least half year there, then do some more work and so on. Germany is perfect land for fair workers, and especially for people who want to abuse the system, but what I don't know is how much the system can take and for how long.
>cca 35% full time, 20% part time (probably on social too). So if you think just accepting people in your country will resolve your problems, I have some bad news for you.
You do understand that a lot of them are women, children and the elderly right? Syrian and MENA cultures usually revolve around the man working, the children going to school to become something better and the women staying at home to take care of the family. Germany has so many social safety nets and amazing, well paying jobs that it actually allows people to do that instead of both parents working for 40 hours as the grandparents or the baby sitter take care of the kids.
>Unfortunately our politicians are too afraid to explain this to the population and the right wingers dominate the debate with fear mongering and disinformation.
And that is one of the most technically advanced, well travelled and well educated societies in the planet. If "explaining" something as obvious as the need of immigrants to balance the demographics is challenging in Germany, imagine Poland.
It’s imo. actually not that it’s difficult to explain, the problem is that the explanation reveals the fact that our country would need many long overdue internal reforms ( for starters, mainly in the legislation ) to actually maintain its own population.
In other words, too many of our politicians would have to explain that they are responsible for well known problems often originating from, and in a way I can’t actually believe I am saying this because I am someone who is VERY much understanding concerning the difficulties of governing our country, seriously bad governance or even outright high level corruption.
I am not anti immigration mind you but if our companies keep outsourcing their investments in foreign markets even outside of the EU while we subsidise them, while for instance our energy companies continue to enjoy cartel like structural benefits and housing prices keep increasing to unreasonable heights we will simply seize being attractive to immigrants and I am honestly concerned that we may end up like the modern USA, with the difference being that „we“ lost a world war with all the costs this implies, had to reintegrate 16 million citizens a couple of short decades ago and are, in other words, simply not doing that good currently - meaning that we need to fix our internal problems fast because they are beginning to seem more and more unmanageable and if our governments fail to address these issues, we will eventually start to decline.
We had no money for expensive nuclear plants which is hurting our heavy industries at a critical moment and we have billionaires literally asking to be taxed more ( we have just 2 less billionaires than France, Great Britain and Switzerland COMBINED mind you ) - our current prospects are looking grim. Not catastrophic but certainly concerning.
> If "explaining" something as obvious as the need of immigrants to balance the demographics is challenging in Germany, imagine Poland.
It's not a matter of understanding. It's politics.
The idea that the economy is so thoroughly fucked that we can't have children anymore but that we can just import people from elsewhere to save the economy (even if there is a negative societal impact through culture and crime) doesn't sit well with the population. Gee I wonder why.
It’s an issue in all countries, regardless of level of education or QoL. When there is a downturn people get defensive and jealous. Ignoring white-supremacy talking points, there are still lots of people against immigrants because they believe that the locals are not getting enough support.
When stuff starts going downhill you get people mad that there is investment into immigration infrastructure or into integration etc. Even when your local economy is booming it can cause prices to rise (gentrification) which can exclude locals from things they used to have more access to and they then get resentful at the newcomers/educated immigrants that are propoing up the local community and economy.
The big issue honestly is that a lot of issues common people have are not taken as serious by many establishment parties as they should. Oooor the common people don’t want to feel like they are taking handouts. Also many programs that would benefit the average person would impact either industry or the 1% and then you get the tension that we always have.
> When there is a downturn people get defensive and jealous
Yes, they stop being rational and let basic emotions take over, even the Germans, who are on average more educated and well travelled than most of the rest of Europe. That was the point I was trying to make.
I don't think it's challenging. Just requires basic communicational skills. The politicians are just making a mistake out of fear which worsens the situation and let's the right wingers set the tone.
It's a future, not a bug. At the end of the day, most politicians generally try to please their rich buddies and donors happy first and then the general populace happy next. The right wing has long since been bought off by the uber wealthy who want immigrants (specifically illegal or desperate/new ones) but ones that they could treat like trash, pay a fraction of what they would to natural born citizens, work insane hours and then just report them to the police if they ever complain.
The moderate/center left parties (which seem to dominate most of Western Europe outside of Spain) fight them but not on the actual working conditions of the immigrants, since they still want their buddies to get a nice little pay day, but more so about how they shouldn't be dehumanized into "savage animals rapist barbarians".
That way if the right wins, than the rich win because illegal immigration surges as people "try to get in before it's too late" which means more people the business owners could work to the bone and the right could attack if any of them do something bad.
And if the moderates win, well immigration levels stabilize as they push back on racist right wing rhetoric but not the actual treatment of immigrants by the businesses that hired illegal ones. Now the business owners will still have that old crop of illegals they could still abuse plus new legal ones to replace them since those jobs would be considered "immigrant jobs" and people needing money will just take them. Sure they'll have to pay slightly more but it's still a lot less than how much they would have to pay for people to do back breaking labor for long hours other wise.
Now I say this, but compared to North America whose long since been bought out few thousand billionaires, Europe still has a left wing to push back against both groups.
>Europe still has a left wing to push back against both groups.
Not really and not for much longer. The left wing parties are dying or dead in most of Western Europe.
Eh, although it is the job of the politicians to communicate things, you can't really deny that people SUCK at changing their opinions. Especially with something like immigration where the negatives can be emotionally manipulative. I.E. Sansationalizing a crime.
I just think that the type of communication a politician needs to enact change is not "basic". It is a specific type of communication that differs based on the politician.
>I don't think it's challenging. Just requires basic communicational skills.
I guess not a single major politician in Europe has "basic communications skills" then.
> Germany needs 1.5 million immigrants each year to compensate for the 1 million that move away and the demographic change.
Because if Germany doesn't get 1,5 million immigrants each year, real wages might rise and companies profit margin may shrink? Oh, the horror! Not to mention that birthrates are falling all over the world, in 50-100 years most countries will have a declining population. Immigration is not a solution to the demographic problem, it is kicking the can down the road.
If you look at a criminalty map, or a [terrorist attack map of EU](https://i.stack.imgur.com/v1xED.jpg), you'll find Poland is actually finding out immigration is bad.
If you ever go to Poland you'll also notice the difference especially at night where you see young women in skirt walking in the street at 2AM. While in Paris they cover and hide.
The dude just said "Immigrants are terrorist rapists who want to do horrible things to your women!" and I guarantee he's now going to get all offended after I called him out on his blatant racism and fascist bootlicking lol
He also forgot to mention that Paris literally has a higher GDP than all of Poland and Hungary combined lol
>He also forgot to mention that Paris literally has a higher GDP than all of Poland and Hungary combined lol
Go and read history of that region. Poland was opressed by Russia (which isn't famous for being good in economy), then lost 1/5 of it's population in ww2, and in the final was communist. Meantime France profited from colonialism and capitalism, while worst thing that happened was loss of population in ww1. And by the way France is heavily centralized, like 1/6 of it's population lives in Paris.
>Go and read history of that region.
I have, it's kind of what I had to do to finish my history degree lol
>Poland was opressed by Russia (which isn't famous for being good in economy)
The Soviet economy was based on building things that are needed to build things and natural resource extraction. The Russian economy is based on natural resource extraction. Poland doesn't have a lot of natural resources but they still got rebuilt, educated, electrified and housed by the Soviets. There's a lot worse forms of oppression than that. At least when it comes to the economy.
>then lost 1/5 of it's population in ww2, and in the final was communist.
Yeah, the Soviet Union fell 33 years ago and Poland was rebuilt and modernized thanks to those damn commies! They're economy is largely built on infrastructure that the Soviets gave them. That's why they and a lot of the former Soviet states were able to do so well after their overlord fell apart compared to say India, Pakistan or Africa, whose colonial overlords squeezed them for every penny they possibly could. France still does that to this day actually.
>Meantime France profited from colonialism and capitalism, while worst thing that happened was loss of population in ww1.
Well that, and the Nazis. And the fall of like 3 Republics. And Algeria and Vietnam. France hasn't had it as swimmingly as you might think either dude.
>And by the way France is heavily centralized, like 1/6 of it's population lives in Paris.
Yeah, the Paris Metro Area has a population of 11 million. Poland and Hungary put together have a population of nearly 50 million.
>Yeah, the Soviet Union fell 33 years ago and Poland was rebuilt and modernized thanks to those damn commies! They're economy is largely built on infrastructure that the Soviets gave them. That's why they and a lot of the former Soviet states were able to do so well after their overlord fell apart compared to say India, Pakistan or Africa, whose colonial overlords squeezed them for every penny they possibly could. France still does that to this day actually.
WTF are you talking about???
I am from one of the state that the Soviets managed so well, that we fell from being one of worlds most industrial country pre ww2 to a sithole after the fall of communism.
And they didn't build anything in our country, we did it. They only steal resources from us. Russia still oves us money from that period of time.
You are hilariously incorrect. In 1938 Germany had a GDP per capita which was 2.5 times the size of Poland's. In 1990 it was 13 times the size of Poland's.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334256/wwii-pre-war-gdp-per-capita-country/
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=PL
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/gdp-per-capita
Where does he say immigrants are terrorist rapists? Where does he show factual data based on real world stats? Where does he claim the truth that people feel less safe in France at night than Poland? You are arguing with a scarecrow, not addressing his points head on, it is bad faith
"If you look at a criminalty map, or a terrorist attack map of EU, you'll find Poland is actually finding out no immigration is good.
If you ever go to Poland you'll also notice the difference especially at night where you see young women in skirt walking in the street at 2AM like it's not dangerous (because it's not there). While in Paris streets are silent and women that venture out quicken their pace when they hear noise."
Did you miss that part bud?
And awww, do you find it bawd faid to arguw with fasciwts and call them out for their bwatant wacism? Sowwy
lmao
All I’m reading are the two statements that Poland is finding out no immigration is good, and that it feels much safer to walk the streets at night in Poland compared to France. He posts a map based on reality (no verifiable source but I don’t doubt it). Making the statement that immigration can be bad is not the same as discriminatorily viewing all immigrants as terrorists and rapists. There are real fascists that need to be fought back into the shadows with blood and tears but labeling anyone and everyone who you disagree with or a has a different world view than you a fascist demeans the integrity of the word and crying wolf in this case makes it much easier for the real ones to shield themselves. Again I ask you to think critically and reason, does the person you reply to make the claim that all immigrants are terrorists and rapists who want to do terrible things to woman or are you straw manning his views and arguing against something that he never even said?
Of the two statements I got above the first one is subjective so we’ll ignore it for now, but as for the second… how about you actually reply to his statement that Poland is safer at night than France? Do you disagree with that statement. Maybe you agree with the statement but draw different conclusions as to the reasons why. There is room here for a healthy conversation and who the fuck knows maybe even a little bit a progress, but putting words in someone else’s mouth and than arguing with those false words is not a productive way forward imo
Wow. Ok. This gonna be fun lol
>All I’m reading are the two statements that Poland is finding out no immigration is good, and that it feels much safer to walk the streets at night in Poland compared to France.
Paris the place where he alleges that women feel don't feel to walk down the streets at 2 AM because of immigrants, has a higher GDP than Poland AND Hungary combined. What's the difference between the two do you think? I'll give you a hint, it involves immigrants bringing new blood into the city and doing the work needed to keep the place running. Unlike Poland who is about to be short 2.5 million people by 2032 lol
>He posts a map based on reality (no verifiable source but I don’t doubt it).
Of course YOU do lol
>Making the statement that immigration can be bad is not the same as discriminatorily viewing all immigrants as terrorists
Oooh, should've held that one in lol "Immigrants are not terrorists, but terrorists are immigrants yes."
\- u/DrBoby
> and rapists.
Hey there bud, what do you think he means when he says "women feel safer at night in places with out immigrants"? lol, I guess you're the type of person that actually falls for the dog whistles huh? Well that does make sense from what you're posting lmao
>There are real fascists that need to be fought back into the shadows with blood and tears
I agree. And he's one of them. Don't believe me? Just replace the word "immigrants" with "Jews". And then read that out again bud.
>but labeling anyone and everyone who you disagree with or a has a different world view than you a fascist demeans the integrity of the word and crying wolf in this case makes it much easier for the real ones to shield themselves.
lol, mans out here literally defending a guy calling immigrants terrorist rapists well saying this unironically lmao. Oh man if you could only see the giant smile on my face rn looool
>Again I ask you to think critically and reason, does the person you reply to make the claim that all immigrants are terrorists and rapists who want to do terrible things to woman or are you straw manning his views and arguing against something that he never even said?
No that's quite literally what he said bud
>Of the two statements I got above the first one is subjective
So subjective it comes from an image with no source lol
>so we’ll ignore it for now,
Because it has no source and because who tf wants to attack Poland? lmao, it's like an after thought of an after thought. Like if you're ISIS or Al-Qaeda or any other far right group (that includes the white ones too bud) and you're planning a terrorist attack, you wanna attack places that actually matter and have cultural significance to the world. Like America, France, Germany, the UK, hell even Turkey or Spain. You're not gonna attack the weird racist kid at the back of the class because nobody is gonna care lol
>but as for the second… how about you actually reply to his statement that Poland is safer at night than France?
I don't, because it's a racist dog whistle based on nothing lol
>Do you disagree with that statement. Maybe you agree with the statement but draw different conclusions as to the reasons why. There is room here for a healthy conversation
"Do you disagree that immigrants are rapists? Maybe you agree that immigrants are rapists. Either way, there is room for healthy conversation about immigrants being rapists are not." loool
>and who the fuck knows maybe even a little bit a progress
"Maybe you could change his mind that immigrants aren't terrorist rapists and he could change yours that they are!" lol
>but putting words in someone else’s mouth
That's literally what he said.
>and than arguing with those false words
Not arguing in bad faith, that is quite literally what he said and dog whistled about lol
>is not a productive way forward imo
Yeah no offense bud, but this entire comment has shown how little your opinion should be regarded in this case lmao
Like seriously, I've never seen a more Enlightened centrist comment on my all be it brief time on reddit lol
Wow this is overload, is it okay if we just start at the top and dissect one at a time? I think there were a lot of misunderstandings trying to do all of that at once. First off I would like to reset the tone by changing from defending his view to discussing my own. I am pro immigration ESPECIALLY due to climate change and certain zones becoming more and more harsh to life over time. I agree with you that immigration can be beneficial to an economy and go further to say that it CAN enhance the culture. As an American I am proud to identify with the part of the culture that has been created from a mixing pot of immigrants from across the world. But as someone who wants to move the needle in my country of allowing more immigrants through the border I don’t think it is beneficial to the cause to pretend that there is only good and never a possible downside, that is where I would like to focus now. I wouldn’t go as far to say that the only reason Frances economy is stronger than Poland is become of immigration, I believe there are many other factors at play… not to say immigration has no effect. I disagree with the statement that France is less safe than Poland because of immigrants. I think there can be an argument that France is less safe than Poland because of immigration. You may say that those two statements are the same but I digress, it may be semantics but I believe the wording is critical. I believe it is possible for mass immigration to cause chaos and destabilize a country with out it being the fault of the immigrants. Saying immigration can be bad can exist at the same time as saying the overwhelming majority of immigrants are good people. Let me rephrase the France/Poland statement into something simpler as to try and keep us on track. France is less safe than it was 20 years ago due to immigration. Or even before we get there even simpler, France is less safe than it was 20 years ago. Do you agree or disagree? This is the question I posed that you weren’t not able to answer in all of your multiple responses, you said you don’t reply because it was a racist dog whistle? I would like to affirm with you that it is your believe that France is just as safe as it was 20 years ago? Or do you agree with the fact that France is less safe, but just disagree on the racism aspect
>Can you help me understand how I am racist, if I am I really would not want to be. I want to understand what I said that can be portrayed as racist
Ok you might not be a racist *knowingly* but you do seem to buy into their dog whistles very easily and then spend quite a bit of time defending it lol
Agreeing with the sentiment that Paris at night is less safe than Poland as night makes me an unknowing racist just because racists use it as a dog whistle to justify there racism? I’m not defending racists, I’m not arguing for prejudice against humans based on there race. But just because an awful racist states a fact in order to further his horrid agenda doesn’t by default make that the statement/fact itself false. I can agree with things facts racists use to justify there views while at the same time condemning their sinful views. Poland has not let mass immigration rapidly change the makeup of its culture. Poland has less terrorist attacks against it and is a safer country (look at trends) compared to many countries that have been rapidly opening there borders. I agree with all of those facts. With that said I am still heavily pro immigration, I believe all of humanity inherits the earth from “____” and I believe that restraining a human to the confines of the border he was born into is eerily similar to slavery and goes against the principle of freedom that I want to support with all of my heart. That being said I think it is delusional to say that uncontrolled mass immigration is only g
Well first of all, there is no direct link between terrorist attacks and immigration numbers. I live in NL and they let in over 100k people now but its pretty safe to walk outside at night as people do on foot or on their bikes.
The only reason Paris, London has seen more attacks is because of the actions of its governments or horrific police brutality. Its funny because these govts refuse to lift sanctions on countries such as Syria and then stay quiet when their own integration policies donot work. I had this realization about the EU prolonging the war in Ukraine and not even demand peace talks. Its like oh we’re happy to take white babies and mothers to our countries at the expense of their men (Ukrainians) but immigrants from war torn countries like Syria/Libya is where we are hesitant to accept.. I’ll be really honest, Poland’s govt is really racist itself and is somewhat proud of not having ‘terrorist attacks’, its maybe bec theyre not relevant enough and are just a puppet state of the US
There are countries in West Europe with good integration policies and those who stand for their stance. I would suggest why is it that West/Central EU is in need of people in the first place, its the system forces both man and woman to work instead of procreate more. The fertility rate is published every year, a country won’t work if the system requires a minimum set number of population to work and thrive. Poland has to, in one way or another, find a way to accept immigrants be it white, middle eastern, african or even South American if they cant convince the populace to not be outright racist due to media bias and misinformation (i legit thought past 15 years would be a great example of whats been happening and why are these people leaving their own countries)
>no immigration is good.
Poland has quite a lot of immigrants. It is just doing it by far more reasonable way without getting hordes of terrorists and rioters.
Poland has no immigrants, I don't know what you count as immigrants. I've been to Poland several times, everyone is white in the street, if not it's a German tourist.
Wow. Ok Mien Fuhrer lol can't believe you literally just said "Immigrants are terrorist rapists who want to do horrible things to your women!" lol
Watch, the guy is now gonna claim he's not actually a racist either lol
Oh and Paris has a higher GDP than all of Poland and Hungary put together lmao
Afaik modern European terrorists are mostly second or third generation Europeans, meaning they were overwhelmingly born and raised in Europe. So what made them go the terrorist route isn't the experience of migration, but something that alienated them from local society.
But xenophobes are never ready for that discussion.
Yes, I count that as immigrant too. They are here due to immigration.
They were not alienated, they do terrorism for the exact same reasons than there is terrorism in their origin country. Mostly fighting for their interpretation of Islam. The terrorist rate of a Muslim in EU or a Muslim in Africa is similar.
And you are not ready for this discussion.
>Yes, I count that as immigrant too. They are here due to immigration.
You'd be hard pressed to find a non-immigrant then lol
>The terrorist rate of a Muslim in EU or a Muslim in Africa is similar.
What
>Immigrants are not terrorists, but terrorists are immigrants yes
Men are not rapist, but rapist are men.
Whites are not slave owners, but slave owners are white.
Poor are not criminals, but criminals are poor.
Europeans are not colonizers, but colonizers are European.
So first, slave owners where in majority African or Arab. Same for colonisation, Arabs colonised Africa and Spain, natives are colonisers, Africans are colonisers (we just have no interest their history).
Second, I see no problem if we import only rich women. But the sex is something that stays only 1 generation since these women will make 50% males for the 2nd generation, so it's less important than religion and wealth that stick for several generations.
>Immigrants are not terrorists, but terrorists are immigrants yes. I'm sorry you fail to see that.
Ok bud, let's do a little thought experiment here. Take out the word immigrants and replace it with the word "Jews". See how that sound mien Fuhrer? lmao
I love when racists pos just go full mask off and are too dumb to realize how insane what they just said makes them look to normal people lol
And 98% of prison inmates are poor people. Maybe we should work on eliminating poverty if you hate crime that. But nah, that's probably "communism" in your book right? lol
>You just said yourself earlier Poland was poorer than France.
Poland AND Hungary. Put together. And not poorer than France, poorer than the big bad Paris you seem to fear/hate so much lol
>Anyway, there is no logic in your arguments, it's only emmotional screech.
This really coming from the dude who just called immigrants terrorist rapists who are after your women and then doubled, tripled and now quadrupled down on it? lmao
Brooo, you're too funny man
> Take out the word immigrants and replace it with the word "Jews".
But they're not saying Jews. They're saying immigrants. "Immigrants" isn't an ethnic designation. It's not a religion, a sex, or a disability. Immigrants refers to people moving to a country. Like "accountants," "politicians," or "people who hate ice cream." It's okay to talk about politicians any way you like.
You think you sound smart or are making some point here by these mocking comments, but really you just look like a 13 year old that escaped from his daycare.. Go back to rwordpolics if you wanna jerk off to reddits typical echo chamber shit.
Correlation does not necessarily mean causation. Three of the four attackers in the 7th July 2005 bombings in London were born in Britain (the fourth originating from Jamaica) and were "cleanskins", not previously known to the authorities, seemingly well integrated into British life. They were radicalised over here and basically instructed to not do anything overt which could flip triggers until the day itself - so a variation of guerilla war tactics (and why security services are so keen for ISPs to log your Internet connection history and gain back doors into end-to-end encryption services, on the off-chance of being able to catch wannabe terrorists and those involved in child sexual exploitation by checking who visits associated domains - but also raises the ire of privacy advocates, warning that [a] if someone deciphered the government's cryptographic key, they'd have a lot of lucrative data to sell, defraud or blackmail people with, and [b] autocratic regimes and those who object to LGBT+, contraception, abortion etc could use the same technology to arrest people from demographics or people with beliefs/attitudes the government didn't like).
You are whitewashing the 2005 bombings.
>Germaine Maurice Lindsay, born in Jamaica
>
>Mohammad Sidique Khan, Pakistani nationality
>
>Shehzad Tanweer, Pakistani nationality
>
>Hasib Mir Hussain, Pakistani origin
They were immigrants of 2nd generation.
Second generation = while their parents were born overseas, they migrated to the UK, gave birth in the UK, and their sons were raised in the UK - therefore also attending primary school, secondary school and university in the UK. We had a *lot* of migration from Pakistan and Bangladesh following Partition.
The fourth bomber was born in Jamaica, moved here when he was five, and also attended primary school, secondary school and university here. His parents were not Muslim themselves but his mother converted when he was 15 and he followed shortly after.
His second marriage was to an Irish native who also converted to Islam, she is alleged to have been behind various attacks that killed 400 people.
Meanwhile, with the 21st July attempted bombings, while the attackers and helpers were born overseas (Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Ghana), almost all had arrived as children and lived here for decades without incident (and AFAIK their parents haven't been in any trouble with the authorities).
We can't disallow immigration on the hypothetical possibility of either the migrants or their children will become terrorists, several decades in the future; while allowing the Security Services to monitor all migrants will be trying to find a needle in a field of haystacks.
Ah yes, famed home of European immigration, Belfast. Nowhere quite like the heady multiculturalism you'll encounter there!
Such a pity all that immigration caused the troubles... Right?
How do you know these terrorists attacks are by immigrants?
Terroirst attacks happens in countries where there is immigration doesnt mean immigration is the cause of it.
Cite some sources
Well that’s an incredible amount of bullshit.
“Half a step away from wanting to impose another final solution.”
I’ve spent time in Krakow and Warsaw. Great cities, great people. I recommend anyone who wants to visit Europe and is see what a place is like that isn’t overrun with commercialization to either of these cities.
The only reason I wouldn’t want to live there is that my earning potential is significantly higher in the US.
>I’ve spent time in Krakow and Warsaw. Great cities, great people. I recommend anyone who wants to visit Europe and see what a place is like that isn’t overrun with commercialization visit to either of these cities.
Difference between people and the government dude.
there were surveys, the ukrainian women don't plan to return whatsoever haha. A lot even got divorces from their husbands still in ukraine and married guys abroad. Quite a few in germany also just started doing onlyfans and earn more money than they'd ever would in ukraine with a normal job.
Nobody's going back.
[https://www.integrationsfonds.at/newsbeitrag/studie-ukraine-vertriebene-in-oesterreich-ein-jahr-nach-kriegsbeginn-1-17640/](https://www.integrationsfonds.at/newsbeitrag/studie-ukraine-vertriebene-in-oesterreich-ein-jahr-nach-kriegsbeginn-1-17640/)
you'll have to speak german to read it. about austria, only 13% plan to go back. and here's one about germany: [https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/pressemitteilungen/DE/2022/04/digitalisierungslabor.html](https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/pressemitteilungen/DE/2022/04/digitalisierungslabor.html)
in the german one 42% have said they want to stay in germany under all circumstances, 19% don't have any plans of either staying or going back and only 32% want to return to ukraine at some point in the future. The 19% can be added to the 42% because anyone who says "i don't have any plans yet" is essentially saying "i don't care enough to want to go home" and people usually stay in the situation they're in (so, germany), unless they have serious plans or are forced to. No clue about the remaining % of people, they aren't mentioned but i guess they didn't answer.
You made a lot of claims in that comment. People want to stay in Germany (which is quite different than Poland btw) is one thing. Them divorcing their husbands is another.
[An estimated 90% of the refugees from Ukraine are women and children.](https://reporting.unhcr.org/operational/situations/ukraine-situation#:~:text=An%20estimated%2090%25%20of%20the,other%20countries%20in%20the%20region.)
90% of the refugees are women and children because only women and children were allowed to leave; for men, the border is closed. These 10% are either elderly or people who were already abroad when the war started.
The reunification of families can go in the other direction as well, the husbands/fathers/brothers of refugee women would come to them instead as soon as borders are opened.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/28/in-grips-of-war-ukraine-faces-gloomy-demographic-future
Let's just put it this way, would you go back to a pretty corrupt war thorn country that now has a million+ veterans, god knows how many injured soldiers, up to a trillion dollar damages, no money and still has a large land border with the country that just invaded after fighting an 8 year conflict in two large chunks of the country? Or would you rather live in Western Europe, where now you have new friends, a new job which pays more than anything you could get back home, where your children now go to school and where the government still takes care of a good chunk of your needs?
I'm sure a lot of people will go back, but I'm positive even more people will stay and by a very healthy margin.
You say things that make sense on paper but people do not always behave in ways that make sense from an outside perspective. Surveys have shown that most Ukrainians are planning to go back. https://www.unhcr.org/node/26329
Ukraine at least has a proper national identity, Syria’s been fucked for years and the country mostly exists because a bunch of British and French diplomats decided to carve up the Ottoman Empire as if it was a christmas turkey.
Dude the problem with that survey is that it say's they want to return home "one day" but only 14% of them are planning on doing so in the next 3 months. The longer a person stays in a place, the more it becomes "home" to them and idk about you, but I don't see the war being over any time soon so the next "3 months" is going to keep getting pushed back every 4 to 6 months until it's been 4 years since you left home and your kid now has a life of their own.
It’s possible they get used to life in Poland and stay. One factor you are missing is that most of them are women and kids— their dads and husbands are still in Ukraine.
But on a grander scale there’s no reason to bet on this. The Ukrainian refugees are not escaping a third world impoverished country so they just don’t have many push factors compared to, say, a Syrian refuge. Yes the situation in Ukraine isn’t great but life does go on for normal people. And many are refugees right now, not citizens. Once they start becoming citizens then it will look more likely.
Also, more than 4 million Ukrainians have already returned to Ukraine. https://themessenger.com/grid/they-thought-we-were-crazy-why-millions-of-ukrainian-refugees-are-coming-home
Just seems unlikely right now.
>Just seems unlikely right now.
Yeah we'll just have to wait and see. But either way, if even half those people people just decide to leave Poland back to Ukraine, it's gonna be a disaster for them because they just lost out on 750k workers and students.
> but only 14% of them are planning on doing so in the next 3 months
That's because by all estimates, the war will still be going on in 3 months.
Most people don't want to live in fear for their lives and hide in bomb shelters.
> when the war ends
The war is going on for 9 years. It may as well go on for another 5. At this time people have built a new factories in Kramatorsk!
You have entire generation of teens who grew inside war threat under constant stress of will-they/wont-they every year.
I know that "threat of war" is something that is alien for people in NATO, but we plan our business projections with missiles and blackouts in mind.
Anecdotal, but I housed two Ukrainian refugees at my place for several months. One went back home because she missed her family so much and she started college there. The other one only stayed because she can work here and financially support her family back home.
I met some Ukrainians refugees where I live in Spain when the war just started, all of them women and children. All of them went back already. We are talking about five year old kids and pregnant women.
They are either very brave or really miss their land, probably both, because I've never seen migrants pass up on opportunities like this.
Dude even if we're being very generous and saying it's 70% women and 30% men, a lot of those women are adults who need to support their children so they'll have to work
It is likely once the war ends capital will flood into Ukraine through European, international and private funds, stirring huge amounts of work for rebuilding. That could be large attractor for refugees to return.
That's a very western keyboard warrior kind of thinking. These people have a home where they grew up in, likely relatives that either still live in ukraine or that will come back. Many as immigrants wont exactly have good jobs locally, wont have local cultural affinity, some may even have a language barrier problem since newer generations in eastern europe dont speak russian nearly as much as 30 years ago.
You're massively overestimating just how much people care about money above all else, especially poor people from poor countries. Some will stay, but definitely not nearly as much as you think. Unless the war continues for another 10 years i guess, then probably nearly all will stay.
In practice that rarely happens. Give it a year and their homesickness will start waning, they'll have jobs and will have started building their lives in Poland.
When the war stops they'll have the option to leave their cozy lives in relatively developed Poland or go back to the uncertainties of war-torn Ukraine where they don't know if they will have their jobs and questionable infrastructure like healthcare and everything else. Most of them will stay and Poland will be very happy about that.
Source: am Bosnian and that's how it was with our war refugees. People start mentally delaying the return, first it's I'll give it a few years until the state of the home country gets better, then they have children and figure out it's better to stay for/with them and push the return until retirement, and then when retirement comes they figure out they have no friends and family in the homeland and the healthcare is worse anyway.
Looking at the 2nd party in Germany, AFD, has more than 20% support in the recent polls. So if you think the current Polish government is bad - wait till the Germans form their new government and read about what AFD thinks about migration and other issues. Personally I’m concerned.
Ukrainians are not a big issue here. The ones that came here before 2022 were already thrilled about the idea of living in a country that is run better compared to Ukraine (less corruption, less crime, better wages etc.). The ones that came after the war were mostly assimilated by other Ukrainians who came here before the war broke out. It’s a different kind of migration.
Not claiming that Poland is perfect or something. But in some cases it’s a small improvement that is good enough for people who have had it way worse.
The AfD will never get anywhere close to power. The majority of the people polled won't vote for them, because they'll either be dead or too lazy to by the time the next large scale election rolls around - their ceiling in polls is projected to be 25%, and you can take around 10% of that off for a federal election.
Plus, every single democratic party refuses to work with them in any way, even if some sections of the CDU/CSU are naziing it up right now.
Well I hope so and I do hope the silent voters will swing the election, but looking now - ugh 😣
I did noticed they are getting the “n stamp” in the media a lot and I think there is some merit to it. I don’t like how pro-Russia they are, maybe there is some Russian money behind these people. I understand there are issues in Germany and people may be pissed for a number of reasons, but the inflation in DE isn’t even that high compared to other countries and already the sentiment is the polls is so extreme.
Again, I am aware Poles are Slavs. My point is Polish nationalists view themselves as a different kind of Slav. Many hate Ukrainians and REALLY hate Russians, for example.
Thats an emotional response my dude. I am Albanian and lived in Poland for 14 yrs. I recently refused a 6 figure job in Dusseldorf to stay in Poland. Ehile the party in power is a conservative and religious one, it is not much different from all other such parties. I personally will vote against yhem come next election, but these things are blown waay out of proportion. They are very much your typical Christian, conservative party and they are relfective of a larger issue which we in Europe need to face. I personally believe its better for them to come in power 8 yrs and implement their conservative policies, then come 8 yrs of liberal governance and undo some of it, then suptess everythting and have some skinhead party as an explosion of unheard frustrations.
"they talk so much shit to Russia but if anyone should be thanking them, it seems like it's Poland". This sentence ages like milk. Please do your reading before posting shit like that.
In 20 to 50 years time those countries which will have remained liberal and open societies, open to immigration will be in a much better position that the countries which will have been unfortunately led by obscurantist xenophobes. Ironically the demographics they're so precious about maintaining homogeneity in and healthy will be their undoing.
Homogenity is huge advantage. If you don't believe that look at history of Yougoslavia, Austro-Hungary or Russia. Not all cultures and religions are compatible. It will be great challenge to maintain society peaceful and civilised with such diversity a task that West is failing at constantly.
Using a country that no longer exists and a defunct pre-WWI empire as examples of homogenous success.
It's a bold move Cotton, let's see if it works out for them.
"Cherry-pick" lol.
Literally 2/3 of your examples. A majority.
Also, Russia is not a great example of a successful homogenous society either. So now it's 3/3. All of them. I "cherry-picked" literally all the examples you gave.
Do you know what that phrase means?
>Literally 2/3 of your examples. A majority.
Literally only one you can't even get that right
Russia is not homegenous now either so it's still viable example. It's the example of the opposite. You're even ignorant in such basics.
You ignored Youguslavia too.
Most of all you ignored my point entirely which was about Western Countries (mention which you ignored too)
So yes. You're blatant cherrypicker.
I was referring to Yugoslavia as the country that doesn't exist and Austria-Hungary as the defunct pre-WWI empire. Majority. 2/3.
Your comment says to look at history of homogenous societies and then you go on to give examples of nations that are all in eastern Europe or Asia (Russia). You're not talking about the West at all.
I think English is your second language, so I'm going to give you a pass. But you're really not making sense.
> You're not talking about the West at all.
I mentioned it already and provided some historical examples for wider context yet you reject tham all for stupid and irrelevant reasons.
>Your comment says to look at history of homogenous societies
It doesn't and thats why you're not even qouting that. Homogenous societies would be Japan, South Korea, Iceland, Czechia, Poland (at least until mass migration form Ukraine)
>You're not talking about the West at all.
I litrally said " It will be great challenge to maintain society peaceful and civilised with such diversity a task that **West** is failing at constantly."
> But you're really not making sense.
It is your first yet you're still not able to provide any arguments relevant to the point
Right, right. Which is why the West and the US are among the most successful countries on the planet.
The three examples you have cited (Russia perhaps to a more limited degree) are clearly different in that the mix of ethnicities and peoples that lived in those places had to do with those countries effectively grouping various countries and other territories under them which had existed previously. So those tensions were based on immigration alone. Many of those people's had lived and existed, sometime for centuries, under other states or empires previously, with many of them even being independent at various points. The kinds of tensions that can emerge from that are clearly not the same as those that emerge from immigration (particularly modern immigration as we see it). That's a major difference.
Owie, was a little snowflake hurt by a point of view different from his? Why don't you go live in China since you think they're so amazing? I'll stay in the West with all the immigrants. Ciao!
No, nerd, it’s that China is the second most powerful nation on the planet while also being homogenous and xenophobic.
You’re trying to build this argument that multiculturalism and mass importation of immigrants is some necessary component of success. You’ve used this appeal to authority, that the “some of the most successful countries” depend upon it as though it’s some necessary component to national success when a glaring counter to that claim is staring you in the face.
>Right, right. Which is why the West and the US are among the most successful countries on the planet.
Succesful in what exactly? Certainly in not domestic peace and low crime rates. They haven't become empires because of that. They became superpowers by racism, imperialism, discrimination and war crimes.
>. So those tensions were certainly not based on immigration alone. Many of those peoples had lived and existed, sometime for centuries, under other states or empires previously, with many of them even being independent at various points.
Point is that diversity was foundation of internal conflicts and similar things happen in Western Europe.
>Your point may be valid for modern examples like Catalonia but not for this.
My point is valid because similar things happen certain cultural/religious combinations simply don't work.
Successful in just about any metric that matters and by about any standard, not going to waste my time listing them here, and certainly not just the two your cherry-picked which are, by the way, terrible examples and in which Western countries do much better than most of the world.
Poland is on course to lose over 25% of its population and to become the land of grannies and grandpas by 2050-2070, good luck not becoming a failed state with that when there's no one working and no pension system to speak of. Being homogenous won't save you, it will merely accelerate the trend. Meanwhile countries open to immigration will still be doing way better, personally this is a very obvious choice if one were to bet.
>, and certainly not just the two you cherry-picked which are, by the way, terrible examples and in which Western countries do much better than most of the world.
Said manipulator who cherrypicked convienient factors and act's like it's responsible for all the good things in the West.
Polish person here. I would love to date and start a family, but I rent a flat with two friends, and I am barely keeping financially. I can't afford commited relationship eith children lol.
we here this from people all around the world.
housing affordability has dropped massively for young people the last 2 decades. rents are through the roof, mortgages as well.
of course people aren;t having children when they cannot source affordable, secure housing.
Norway: incredibly high HDI, averages some of the highest salaries in Europe, one of the most equal societies on Earth, robust social services, provides maternity and paternity leave, free education, pays ~$9k when you have a child. Birth rate? 1.48
UAE: pays for your housing, pays for your education, will subsidize education abroad, pays citizens $5,000 per _month_, free healthcare, stipend for each child. Birth rate? 1.46
Hungary: free education, pays you (a lot) for each child you have, no income tax if you have 3+ kids, free public school lunches and books for kids. Birth rate? 1.56
In America the wealthier you get, the less kids you have. It's not a housing problem because people in the best positions in life are still choosing not to have kids. Are things harder now for those Emiratis with UBI and free everything than before? No, their births dropped because people with money and education decide being tethered to a kid for years isn't worth it. You can make the cost of raising a child zero and people will still choose not to have them. The sooner people stop pretending this is a money or housing issue the faster we can come up with solutions to the problem
It's simple
Contraception and women's rights.
Pregnancy is painful process and it makes sense women do not want to go through that much.
Europe will need to find solution to immigrants and how yo integrate them sooner or later.
Even if it means white people not being the majority anymore, cultures have always changed in history.
The answer should not be by forcing people to have children through stick measure policies, I do not want to live in reality where I'm obligated to procreate meanwhile in other parts of the world poor people suffer.
Is that really the solution though? Immigration to fix every declining population? Eventually those developing countries will "develop" and stop providing as many immigrants as they were before. Their birth rates are already dropping.
Plus do you really want to live in a world where Poland isn't populated mostly by Poles, a Korea isn't mostly Korean, a Nigeria isn't mostly Nigerian? I don't think this is the way to fix things. People have to start valuing families over money more, we've swung too far into the capitalist mindset of money over everything and have forgotten that it's human relationships that make life worth living. When the world stops looking down on women and instead celebrates them for choosing to have kids over their careers is when we'll see birthrates start climbing up again.
I value family over money - but I also value my mental health as well. Assuming that I dont value family because I don’t stay at home and pop out six kids is bullshit.
Ah yeah the two paths for women: overworked terminally alone careerwoman or breeding sow that pops out 6+ kids. Clearly that's what I meant you choose from based on whether you value family
How about we do not prioritise the economy over the well-being of the population, and just stop aiming for infinite growth?
You do not need more jobs for a shrinking population. It's okay to have the same nominal income in the treasury two years in a row.
Immigrants won't solve the problem, just push it 20 years down the road. That's the most half-assed solution possible.
Thanks for pointing this out and backing it up with numbers. It’s not just a money thing.
I have kids, and don’t want anymore. I have a committed husband, a good house, healthcare, help with childcare, funds to provide for another kid etc. But pregnancy sucks ass. And it almost killed me once. Giving birth sucks ass too, as does sleep deprivation and cleaning up after ~~a pack of feral dogs~~ kids. We talk like it’s just money, but it’s a ton of work. And even if you have the time, it’s draining, and it never ends.
And every kid I have takes more of my time and energy, which means less time and energy for the already existing kids, for my marriage, for myself, etc. I have to be less present, literally and figuratively, for my existing kids if I have another. There could be more money thrown my way, but it wouldn’t change anything. No one is offering me a 36 hour day, bc they can’t. And it’s the time and energy crunch of having kids that made me stop having more kids. I know I’m not alone.
I find it extremely hard to believe that if the cost of raising a child was made to be $0, that birth rates would not go up. Obviously not everyone would choose to have them, but a LOT more people would choose to do it.
This reasoning is bullshit, people don't want children simply because times are different. Now with the internet, people have things to do in their freetime, and a kid would ruin that, so they just became undesired
It’s the same reasoning, people have more free time, and more they can do in it, because they are wealthier. Better technology like the internet is a form of wealth. As countries become more urbanised and more middle class, and wealthier their birth rate drops. Even within countries wealth is negatively correlated to birth rate.
You hear this *bullshit* from all over the world - and pretty much exclusively on social media. Private housing has never been as available as in the last 50 years.
The truth is, people are just spoiled. Any tiniest bit of hardship is an excuse to put all what you have into personal entertainment. My parents moved across the country having essentially nothing. They rented, they saved, they worked blue collar jobs, and they didnt live comfortably, but they were perfectly able to have a family.
These days, with easy access to the internet, people just feel that "if i cant live like the top 10%, why even bother with anything"..
Lmao that was such a wild read.
A - you're flat out wrong or just being a troll about housing. It's worse than bad faith arguing to say that while new and even empty stock is abundant. To say it's affordable is so blatantly false it has to be intentional.
B - no one owes you a pension. If I'm struggling in life and feel my kids would do the same. Then I may choose not to have them. It's perfectly reasonable. Your parents chose to have kids and struggled doing it? Good for them. Gold star.
Society wants to avoid demographic collapse? Don't fkn make having kids or a secure future seem unattainable.
Cuz here's the kicker. Your parents may have struggled hard. It's gotten harder. Wage stagnation vs inflation was already at a breaking point. Now it's completely off the rails.
Get out of your bubble and wake up to the wider issues society as a whole faces.
Your whole comment reads like a climate denier saying its cold where they are and was colder in the 70's one winter so everyone should stfu about global warming.
Ah, so you're one of those "no one wants to work anymore" type of folk, eh?
> Private housing has never been as available as in the last 50 years
I work in real estate. "Available" does not equal "affordable". Since 2020 to today, the average house price has gone up more than a third...in only *three years*. And there's basically nothing to rent any more, as everyone and their brother went out and bought a house to AirBnB.
I know families that have lived in this area for *generations*, and are having to leave. And this is middle of nowhere Appalachia. Go try and buy a house in Atlanta or Raleigh right now, where corps like Blackstone have bought up all the "starter homes" so people have to rent into perpetuity.
Actually LOL'ed.
You're right. "Not saving" is why young'ns cant afford that half-million home your parents bought for 50k, while also paying 1-2/3 their weekly income on rent.
Avocado on toast energy over here. They just need to quit bitching and pull their socks up right? Stop buying coffees, stop having any semblance of pleasure in their lives? Just live on sawdust and water. If you don't kill yourself from depression and work 60 hours a week you might get a house before you retire. EZPZ.
I WISH they were just rage baiting, but these people genuinely feel this way, that times are significantly easier for young adults these days and that there is absolutely nothing wrong with the housing market, min wage stagnation, inequity of all time highs, etc... It's disgusting, their opinion is disgusting and harmful to society. Zero critical thought being applied, fingers in the ears shouting "NA NA NA CAN'T HEAR YOU"
Obtaining property is much harder than it used to. Prices are way up in comparison to salaries. That is probably the biggest factor.
Besides I am not sure wht do you expect people to live miserably just to pump out children lol. I am working 40 hours a week. I am not going to work twice that to obtain my own property, no thank you.
If our gov wants us tp have children they would need to begin by imploding house market. There are many ways tp do it once you realise free market is only a tool and when it fails you should smack it on the head.
Unused property taxes, max rent and max housing prices would make a lot of rich people sad. Not that it matters.
You're BSing. Wages and inflation have diverged so much that the same dollar that gave your parents the ability to have all these things stretches, at best, 50% as far - likely much less. You see this repeated across the world in basically all industrialised nations. It's not a question of people being spoiled - yes, people have higher expectations in some things, that is true, but the costs of just being alive at all are considerably higher as well, and are still rising.
>The truth is, people are just spoiled.
I would word it differently. Today's expectations are much higher. It was not usual back in a day for a family of five or six to share a small two bedroom home. Today that is unacceptable.
Life did not get harder, but our standards got much much higher.
Feels like the problem would be solved by rent caps on older buildings so they become affordable, opening up housing to the finance industry and foreign investors has destroyed the idea of a house being a home and turned it into an investment that expects constant growth in profit. Housing somehow needs to be separated from all the other financial speculation and investment firms.
Yeah, but if we correctly remove inelastic goods from the global market how will we know who the betters are that either, fleece the government through tax evasion/subsidies(US), or fleece the planet through hydrocarbons( Middle East). Theyd actually have to work and be creative,and we know how they feel about creative types.
I think Theresa role for regulation in the provision of necessities but it can still be fine more cheaply and effectively by private industry. Where I think the state does have a more central role in provision is natural monopolies like shared infrastructure. Electricity, roads, water, etc. Plus basic essential services like policing and health care.
The whole more cheaply and effectively is propaganda I think at this point we see that conservative ideology just doesn't work it's effectively stealing from tomorrow to give to today and each generation gets poorer as a result of it.
If we look at the water companies in the UK that have monopolies now they are pumping out sewerage into our water ways because they cut costs by not planning for any usage above average and by never investing in the infrastructure improvements so that profits can all be siphoned off to share holders. So anytime the sewerage usage is above average they just pump it out, they probably still consider the average as what was used 20 years ago so don't improve the infrastructure.
Technically you can argue that is what running it more cheaply and effectively means but the end result will still be that the public have to bail that private company out and pay for all the money that should have been reinvested instead of going to share holders.
I agree on water utilities, and on many utilities that are natural monopolies. However where there is the possibility of real competition, and private capital can be invited without having to be unfairly underwritten by the public purse, then it is the way to go. This is a continuum though, I don't think there’s a one size fits all formula. Even the same utility in different countries, or different regions might benefit from different handling based on local conditions. But I think both private industry and public ownership, and various forms of combination should be options on the table.
Not German but living in Germany and dated a Polish person for a bit and visited Poland even before dating them a few times.
I assumed based on food and hotel prices that salaries were more or less the same in Germany. Blew my mind when my ex told me it's more like 1/3 of what Germans in the same industry make, and average rent is often times much much higher than in Germany.
This gotta be Warsaw vs small town in Germany right? This is what I've found:
[https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/region\_prices\_by\_city?itemId=27®ion=150](https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/region_prices_by_city?itemId=27®ion=150)
Warsaw similar to Vienna, which is a much richer place with much higher wages. Definitely surprising.
No this is medium city in Germany vs. medium city in Poland.
Idk where this site gets its data from, I was quoted marginally higher prices by Polish friends. Not massively higher than in Germany but enough to be significant (but then again it was anecdotal so maybe there's bias there). But what is true is that the wages are significantly smaller.
Yeah I know the wages are lower for sure. Numbeo numbers definitely look like 10 years old at least, but I'm wondering if the ratios between different EU places would change too much?
It's the culture around these things as well. In Poland you could say that many people - especially those that entered the workforce around the time the system changed, so today's 50-year olds - see work as kind of a virtue. That your life purpose is to work and you should not call your landlord a leech because "they worked for it". You might barely survive and work yourself to death but many see it as a good thing. We call this "kultura zapierdolu"
It is happening, but it takes time. I'm originally from Czechia and the country has improved a lot in the past 30 years. I'd say it caught up to Western Europe pretty well. GDP per capita in PPP terms is now a bit higher than Japan's. Used to be a fairly poor country with struggling planned economy when compared to the West back in the day (before 1989).
Same story all over eastern EU. Poland is better than 30 years ago as well.
Seems the housing trouble may be a global issue. Makes sense since the investment banks are global entities.
Maybe let the people move and restrict the flow of capital. lol.
Exactly this. The decline is purely because educated folks know the difficulty of managing a family and want to provide better lives to children. Give them the same benefits as you would to people incoming and you bet the children would start flowing. This is true for every society where people are educated and know about quality of life.
This isn’t true though. Countries who give massive benefits to childcare, such as months of paid leave, paid childcare, etc. have just as low of a fertility rate
>The decline is purely because
Not only that. The recent changes to abortion laws have made people basically too afraid to get pregnant in this country.
its fair reason, but in the uk its the poorest having the most kids generally for some reason, they just dont worry about the costs, the kids might not eat well but its the way it is
If you don't have much of anything you have nothing to lose. I know some really awful ways to get around not gaving much money, like occupying flat illegally.
However I don't want to compromise on the lowest possible form of existence in society.
People are talking shit about Polish gov being right-wing "one step from implementing final solution on immigrants." Meanwhile, Poland got one of the most liberal immigrant policies for LEGAL immigrants. Our "semi-nazi" gov even wanted to pass legislation this year, easing up the path for visas in countries like India, Pakistan, and so on, but Donald Tusk, the dude that represents pro-EU liberal polish political scene started talking how PiS is planning on flooding Poland with Muslims so PiS backed off. It's so funny seeing people outside of Poland talking about Polish politics like it's some nazi Germany reincarnation not not actually knowing a single thing. And as a Pole, i can tell you that in these past 8 years of PIS government, there's been a massive influx of foreign workers, not only ukrianains. It's not unusual to see Hindu or Pakistani in large cities nowadays.
>It's not unusual to see Hindu or Pakistani in large cities nowadays.
You can say it's not unusual, but it's also far from normal according to the actual statistics and census data. Those groups make up a fraction of a percent of the population. Poland is obviously far from literal Nazi Germany, but it's incredibly misleading to pretend to be welcoming to immigrants when you are only welcoming to the people you hand pick to come in.
Ah yes, everyone who agrees with me is reasonable, and everyone who doesn't is a moron. It's a real mystery why people think Poland and its supporters are intolerant right wingers.
Oh look another bigorted strawman. Why won't we look at crime rates huh? Wanna talk about domestic terrorism.
Yes it is racional to not let criminals in. Poland is just not brainwashed by PC propaganda so it's free of riots and massive crime rates of most of rich West
"Welcoming" isnt some objective binary measurement. Fraction of population is irrelevant. Despite what spoiled rich westerners may think, getting up and moving to live wherever the fuck you want regardless of national borders isnt some moral basic human right..
> You can say it's not unusual, but it's also far from normal according to the actual statistics and census data. Those groups make up a fraction of a percent of the population.
And that's a problem why? Poland is a European country. They can choose who they let in or not.
Something many countries don't consider is compatible culture. A Ukrainian or a Czech will be able to acclimate to Poland and accept the values with minimal changes. A Frenchman or a German will have to do some work, but at least they share many of the same values.
But if you bring someone from halfway across the world, they aren't going to become Polish until at least two generations later. So if you do, they have to add something to your country, such as skills, money, or culture, and not just be a warm body that can hold a shovel.
Immigration works in places like Canada or Australia precisely because it's very restricted. We aren't bringing in any random person from any random country just because they want to come here. And even then, our healthcare is collapsing and our housing market makes San Francisco look good because we brought too many people with no regard for logistics.
That’s what immigration policies are for - hand picking the people you allow into your country to guarantee the best outcomes for the future of your country. Immigration should benefit the receiving country too, not just the migrants.
There is common missconception in „Hand Picked” by Poland. Its not like we point a finger and say - You go, You dont, you dont, you might come. The idea is pretty simple - You have papers? Visible criminal history about yourself (not clear - visible)? You can come. / No papers ? Noone can tell who are you and what were you doing in the past ? Get out.
Both statements can be true. 40% of 5 million is 2 million; so millions can be undocumented illegal immigrants while the majority can migrate legally. I don’t know a damn thing about the situation or the numbers btw.
>Meanwhile, Poland got one of the most liberal immigrant policies for LEGAL immigrants.
That is not what the data says.
Back in 1990 immigrants were 3% of the Polish population. In 2015 it was down by almost half, to 1.6% ([source](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/immigration-statistics)).
Poland, with a population of 37 million people, has half as a many immigrants (in absolute numbers) as New Zealand, a country with a population of 5 million people.
IT doesn't matter how much foreigners stay in Poland. Point is actual legislation. If migrants prefer to go somwhere else thats entirely difrent and irrelevant story.
There you go:
>The current net migration rate for Poland in 2023 is -0.265 per 1000 population, a 27.79% decline from 2022. The net migration rate for Poland in 2022 was -0.367 per 1000 population, a 21.75% decline from 2021. The net migration rate for Poland in 2021 was -0.469 per 1000 population, a 17.86% decline from 2020.
[SOURCE](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/net-migration)
You are right, but I hope that is not the case.
Because if Poland has "one of the most liberal legal immigrations policies" as originally claimed, and yet more people are leaving than coming in, what does that say about that place?
https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/12/19/number-of-foreigners-with-residence-permits-in-poland-triples-to-1-66-million/
And here you can see raw numbers of people who came in 2022 and have residence permits.
They don't want legal immigration, they NEED illegal immigration, because that's a problem that can be managed and tried to be fixed... Politicians without problems can't profile themselves well, so they like to create problems.
Yeah, same here in Hungary with Orbán. These pseudo-right wing stump orators are usually anything but nationalists, they tell the people whatever gets them elected, then do whatever puts money in their pockets, which is usually the exact opposite. Fidesz has imported tens of thousands of low-skilled workers from places like Bangladesh and the Philippines, and nowadays they are ramping it up tenfold. Which is one of the reasons why real wages in Hungary keep sinking like a leaden plug.
Common homophobic country L.
Sucks big time for the people of the area that "Poland" occupies. I hope they find it in their hearts to overthrow their evil regime and free themselves from the tyrants who would prioritize money over life.
Why do people in poverty-stricken countries have large amounts of children when they clearly cannot afford them?
The reason we in developed countries have fewer children is many different factors that come with modern society but the main reason is the empowerment of women. When you allow women to have a proper education the same as men, allow them to use their own form of contraceptives, etc, the birth rate goes down. This is true in every country, regardless of background, culture or religious beliefs.
Shit gets worse every year, socially, financially and physically, and most of the planet act surprised that young ones have no desire to do something as dumb and reckless as starting a family
Worldwide this is becoming an issue, it's demographic in the sense that its affecting mostly young people although it's not political or even environmental. This literally boils down to people not having enough disposable income, for some people it's no disposable income at all after bills. How are we supposed to have children when we can barely pay for our own rent, food, and clothes.
Something has to change.
Housing costs. Owners prefer high rents and housing prices to having more children in society. Yes, immigration is a solution but only in terms of numbers; there are cultural stresses and social costs as well. The obvious, simplest solution for Poland (and so many other rich-ish countries is to cap the rents and make housing speculation illegal (or otherwise prohibitive).
White supremacists are going to be all over this with "explanations" but the fact is, more and more young working people just can't afford to have kids. Thank capitalism
💯 imagine taking away women's freedom to access basic reproductive healthcare options and then being shocked that they don't want to risk getting pregnant. Most animals refuse to breed in captivity
Freedom is nice and all, but you guys are beyond delusional that this is even remotly a factor. Just having a typical reddit jerkoff. Birth rates are super down across most of the developed world. Including all the places where abortion is perfectly legal and easy..
Haha cool thanks for telling us how we really feel.
PS women's basic rights are also 'super down across most of the developed world'
PPS I bet tons of women would otherwise want your babies 😂
I am not certain about just the Western side, but there are studies across the entirety of European countries. Don't exactly have access right now to my PC so can't really dig into it deep, but here's an article with birth rates from 2021 - https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/17/fertility-in-europe-which-countries-have-the-highest-and-lowest-numbers-of-live-births-per
I don’t get the direct result? I’d have said abortion restrictions are an illustration of how disconnected the answers for demographic fall are in general?
If you want people to bang and have kids, make them happy as individuals, feeling supported as parents, easy to project as workers, and not felt like useless or dumb shit in general.
None of that seem to exist in Poland, at least for women. The Polish wife of a school friend said she’d not have made kids had she stayed there. The politics and the church there are so full of shit when talking about family issues, she stopped going to church…
Those things contribute big time, too. But the fear of being unable to abort or die of pregnancy complication also prevents many women from trying to have children here as well. There already have been cases of it since the restrictions became harsher because doctors are either on a religious power trip or are worried about getting penalized for saving a woman's life.
Literally never heard such an opinion from anyone that isn't a political freak
It's the costs of living and education that are mentioned way more in day to day conversations, but I guess screaming on protests is heard more
Could it be that possibly both things are true? Or I am a screaming political freak, I guess.
My first comment was more tongue-in-cheek, of course there's more factors but those were covered in the article.
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> # [Poland's demographic crisis is so bad that its birth rate just dropped to the lowest level since World War II](https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GettyImages-1545151504-e1690817911356.jpg?resize=1200,600)
>
>
>
> [Mateusz Morawiecki](https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GettyImages-1545151504-e1690817911356.jpg?w=1440&q=75)
>
> Mateusz Morawiecki, Polish Prime Minister.
>
> Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images
>
>
>
> Poland’s birth rate dropped to the lowest level since World War II, defying efforts by the nationalist government to grapple with the country’s aging population.
>
> The number of births dropped to 290,975 in the year through June, down almost 9% from the previous year, according to the National Statistics Office. The trend, setting a new low, extends a decline in the European Union’s sixth-largest economy since 2018.
>
> The failure to reverse Poland’s demographic shift has attracted criticism from the opposition, which is trying to unseat the ruling Law & Justice party in a parliamentary election expected in October. The party bolstered its marquee child-benefit policy during the campaign this year, promising to [boost monthly payouts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-14/polish-ruling-party-pledges-higher-social-spending-before-ballot) to families with children to 800 zloty ($200) a month from 500.
>
> The benefit has broad support — the biggest opposition party has said it would introduce the increase earlier — though is having little traction over the demographic shift as an aging work force imposes increased pension costs and opens labor shortages.
>
> While a growing proportion of foreigners — including an influx of some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees — is filling labor gaps, Poland would need to accept an additional 2.75 million working-age migrants by 2032 in order to hold the proportion of retirees to the workforce steady, according to [a report](https://www.zus.pl/documents/10182/2322024/Cudzoziemcy+w+polskim+systemie+ubezpiecze%C5%84+spo%C5%82ecznych_2022.pdf/b457fe14-91e8-c030-40bc-67c3eb92af17?t=1686552717173) by the Social Security Office in Poland.
>
> But migration is a polarizing issue in Polish politics. Although Poland has been lauded for sheltering Ukrainian refugees, the government in Warsaw sought to thwart an EU proposal that would impose fines for not meeting asylum quotas.
>
> Poland refused to take in asylum seekers in 2015-2016 when the continent grappled with a tide of more than a million refugees from the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, the number of work permits issued to migrants coming from outside Europe has surged.
>
>
>
> Subscribe to Well Adjusted, our newsletter full of simple strategies to work smarter and live better, from the Fortune Well team. [Sign up today](https://www.fortune.com/newsletters/well-adjusted?&itm_source=fortune&itm_medium=article_tout&itm_campaign=well_adjusted).
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