https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/25/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-potential-lunar-impact
Posted by NoExternal2732@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 41 comments
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/25/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-potential-lunar-impact
I feel like there's a little bit of "Don't Look Up" in terms of media silence going on about the asteroid that is going to get very close to our planet in 2032, and while it's "only" a 4% ish chance to hit the moon, that's enough to warrant concern since tiny high velocity rocks and satellites are a terrible combination.
Key_Pace_2496@reddit
It has been calculated to only have between 5 and 7 megatons worth of energy upon impact so it won't really do anything other than look cool on telescopes.
because_of_course_@reddit
Mmm Seveneves, great book about the moon exploding and the aftermath of that. Recommended!
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/22816087-seveneves
Ecstatic_Oil_9233@reddit
Another series called “Life As We Knew It” about the aftermath of an asteroid hitting the moon.
improbablydrunknlw@reddit
Super YA though, I read the series and it was enjoyable but it's target audience is absolutely not 40 year old men
Ecstatic_Oil_9233@reddit
Hahaha true and fair
Alternative-End-5079@reddit
LOVED that book!
sfphreak415@reddit
Hard Rain!
kkingsbe@reddit
Great book until part 3
FuzzzyRam@reddit
I don't know, you gotta respect challenging himself to extrapolate it all the way out instead of ending after a satisfying adventure. I like when authors take risks. It reminds me of the 3rd book in the Three Body Problem - he just flies by the seat of his pants until the very end.
mnmaste@reddit
Yeah it went downhill fast at the end
No_Pirate_1409@reddit
Well I know what I’m listening to next
Emu_Fast@reddit
Great book.
Just as a reminder though for the less astronomically inclined... A meteor impact on the moon is significantly less energy than a BB hitting a bowling ball.
Seveneves was caused by a micro black hole, a mostly fictional concept.
PolyGlotterPaper@reddit
Oh, micro black holes are very real!
Source: Eighteves
Ok-Island-9540@reddit
Great book
NoExternal2732@reddit (OP)
I agree, Neal Stephenson is a treasured author in our house.
Mortukai@reddit
Don't worry! We will have moved by then, the moon moves with us and around the earth, so it'll move too!
This is my response to every near impact prediction, and it always comes true.
Definitelymostlikely@reddit
This is a joke right?
QHCprints@reddit
Have you seen how dumb the average person is?
monkeysknowledge@reddit
In risk management a 4% chance of a catastrophic event is huge. We usually try to get the probability of a catastrophic event to around 1:million or lower.
FuzzzyRam@reddit
The risk of a catastrophic event is less than 1:1,000,000.
IntoTheCommonestAsh@reddit
It's not predicted to be catastrophic. Even if it fell on Earth it would be like a very big bomb: would devastate a region, but wouldn't affect the entire Earth. It's definitely not going to be catastrophic if it hits 300,000km away.
Just make sure to not be in space or on the moon in late 2032 and you'll be fine. You might lose satellite connections.
Definitelymostlikely@reddit
Good thing it won’t be a catastrophic event.
RoyalSpectrum91@reddit
What’s the actual threat? I keep seeing this post, but no idea why I’m supposed to care?
IntoTheCommonestAsh@reddit
1) Don't be in space or on the moon in late 2032, 2) prepare for potentially losing satellites, 3) enjoy the show 😎 🎆 ☄️🌕
NoExternal2732@reddit (OP)
https://www.reddit.com/r/spaceporn/s/x2foiVbG0I
Av8tr1@reddit
I mean this happens so often it really is a nothing burger. The moon is literally covered in impact creators all over the place.
Astronomy is one of my hobbies. In not talking about simple phone camera shots of the moon. I mean really got into it. I’ve got specialized scopes for looking at the sun, planetary scopes, deep sky scopes that roll on a dolly.
I’ve caught impacts on the moon with my scopes. It just isn’t that big a deal.
This is another thing to spin people up that will turn out to be nothing but a neat sight for those of us into it. That’s assuming it hits on the visible side of the moon.
Frozty23@reddit
Really? Do tell more!
When I was a kid in the late 70's I had a small telescope and I was looking at the moon and I saw a fixed bright spot for an entire evening. It was around about Albategnius on this map of craters. I've wondered if I possibly saw a lunar impact (I forget the technical term for that), but I figured they were exceedingly rare.
NoExternal2732@reddit (OP)
Asteroids this size are estimated to hit the moon only once every 100,000 years, what's the largest you've seen?
mathologies@reddit
Remember that the Earth and Moon are actually kind of far apart --
The Moon is approx 30 Earth diameters away. https://assets.science.nasa.gov/dynamicimage/assets/science/psd/solar/internal_resources/5052/5-Things-Moon_SeparationDistance-1.jpg
Av8tr1@reddit
Nothing anywhere that big, but this isn’t the size that is going to do any serious damage to the moon or us.
In my view the absolute worst case scenario is we get a really cool meteor shower out of this. If Asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the moon with enough force to eject small fragments the biggest being “maybe” the size of a car. Maybe with enough force to break the moons gravity well but that is gonna take a lot more force than the public understands.
Most likely the fragments orbit the moon for a bit and fall back down.
This isn’t a city size object, it’s about 200 feet in diameter. That’s a pretty small object. If it were to hit earth, and depending on what the material it’s made of, most of it would burn up in the atmosphere. What would impact would be very local in nature.
We are not talking about a city destroyer. At best we are probably talking about a few city blocks.
ReturnoftheSnek@reddit
A 200 ft diameter air burst wouldn’t be ideal but yeah it’s not as catastrophic as people hype it up to be. Especially considering how much of the earth is open ocean
Av8tr1@reddit
71% in fact. The odds of it hitting land are 3,720 to 1.
ReturnoftheSnek@reddit
Never tell me the odds!
Av8tr1@reddit
Oh thank the gods! I was worried someone wouldn't pick up on the joke.
Crocs_n_Glocks@reddit
When was the last time we observed an asteroid impact the moon?
Fancy_Exchange_9821@reddit
Everyday I’m reminded how little people actually know about astronomy lol
SyntaxDissonance4@reddit
Not really. 2032 is seven years from now and any ne reading could move that % an order of magnitude in either direction
Definitelymostlikely@reddit
Op you’re not on the side you think you are in the “Don’t look Up” thing lol
terrierdad420@reddit
Fuck I have to wait 7 more years.
Irverter@reddit
The article is literally on cnn. That's not "media silence".
dj_oatmeal@reddit
Any debris that may come to Earth is expected to be much slower than normal meteors. 2-3km/s vs 20km/s.