Gridlock in Thai politics tends to end one way. Thailand is the only middle-income country in which the armed forces regularly seize power. There have been a dozen coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, two of them in the past 20 years.
Now Thais are asking if another putsch is on the cards. The constitutional court on July 1st suspended the prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, from performing her duties until it could rule on a petition to remove her from office. That followed two other blows. On June 18th the second-largest party in her governing coalition defected to the opposition, leaving it with a majority of just six in the 500-seat lower house. And on June 28th thousands of people rallied in Bangkok to demand the prime minister’s dismissal.
These events are giving some Thais déjà vu. Ms Paetongtarn’s tycoon father, Thaksin Shinawatra, was removed in a coup in 2006. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted by the courts in 2014; a coup ensued two weeks later. Both moves followed adverse court rulings, parliamentary gridlock and protests demanding that the government should be dissolved.
A new bout of instability is the last thing Thailand needs. President Donald Trump wants to hit it with tariffs of 36%; Ms Paetongtarn’s distracted government did not open negotiations with America until the beginning of July, months after its foreign peers. Its export industries are under pressure from lower-cost Chinese goods. Tourism has been hit by tales of Chinese visitors being trafficked into scam centres in neighbouring Myanmar. And in May, an old border dispute with Cambodia roared back to life when a Thai soldier killed a Cambodian sentry.
That border spat is the most immediate cause of Ms Paetongtarn’s suspension. She had sought to resolve it by calling Hun Sen, the former Cambodian prime minister (Mr Hun Sen handed the top job to his son two years ago, but still pulls lots of strings). In a leaked recording, Ms Paetongtarn was heard to criticise a Thai general responsible for the border. Worse, to many Thais, she called Mr Hun Sen “uncle”, a term of endearment in Asia. The petition before the constitutional court to remove her from office argues that the call violated (vague) ethical rules.
But anger at the Shinawatra clan has far deeper roots than this. When Mr Thaksin first came to office in 2001 he sought to co-opt the bureaucracy and agencies regulating his various companies. Media critical of this were banned. The king at the time obliquely criticised these practices, setting the stage for a long-running feud between Mr Thaksin and the monarchy, army, and business leaders.
These elites hated the fact that Mr Thaksin’s populist movement retained support among the rural poor, even after a coup removed him from office. It won further elections in 2007 and 2011. On the run from criminal charges filed against him while out of power, Mr Thaksin chaired meetings of the cabinet that was nominally led by his sister from 2011 to 2014. Her government sought to exonerate Mr Thaksin—one reason she, too, was eventually ousted by the army.
The junta that took power in 2014 concocted a constitution they hoped would keep Mr Thaksin’s movement out of power for good. They reworked the electoral system to reduce the power of Mr Thaksin’s supporters, who are concentrated in the north-east. But in doing so they created an even greater threat to their interests. A new liberal movement, now known as the People’s Party, got 18% of the vote in 2019 and 38% in 2023. It has called for a crackdown on monopolies, cuts to the army’s budget and reforms to rules against criticising the monarchy. In 2023 it won the most seats in the lower house elections, but Thailand’s unelected Senate, appointed by the armed forces, blocked it from forming a government. Shocked by the liberals’ rise, pro-military parties did something that had long seemed unthinkable: they held their noses and teamed up with Mr Thaksin’s Pheu Thai, the second-largest party in parliament, to govern in a coalition.
As part of this rapprochement Mr Thaksin returned to Thailand from self-imposed exile. The palace and the army were led to believe he wanted to live a quiet life. In fact he has been busily reinserting himself in Thai politics and foreign policy. This is too much for an establishment that has fought him since the turn of the century; now it is trying once again to eradicate his family’s influence. Last week, Mr Thaksin went on trial for insulting the monarchy. And if the constitutional court eventually rules against his daughter, her government is unlikely to survive.
Who would govern instead? Under Thailand’s eccentric constitution, prime ministers may be picked only from a brief list of people whom parties nominated before the most recent elections. Eyes are falling on Anutin Charnvirakul, a tycoon who was once aligned with Mr Thaksin. He now leads Bhumjaithai, the party that withdrew from the ruling coalition last month. Mr Anutin may consider working with anyone who can promise him more power. But his party would need support from either Mr Thaksin or the People’s Party to hold a majority in the lower house.
The leader of the People’s Party, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, tells The Economist that he will back any prime minister who promises a snap election. But the other parties all fear they will lose seats if that happens. Mr Thaksin’s former backers are furious at him for doing a deal with the generals. And conservatives are angry with the military-backed parties for allowing Mr Thaksin’s movement back into power.
Hence the worries about another coup. As things stand, the army will probably have to choose between patching things up with Mr Thaksin’s populists or trying to work with Mr Natthaphong’s liberals. It is reluctant to do either. A dozen coups d’état have not yet delivered a political system that makes the generals happy. That does not mean they will not try again. ■
A daily newsletter with the best of our journalism
Yes, I agree to receive exclusive content, offers and updates to products and services from The Economist Group. I can change these preferences at any time.
empleadoEstatalBot@reddit
Maintainer | Source Code | Stats