The most anomalous thing about this whole affair is that the Prime Minister of Armenia is supposedly backing Azerbaijan against Russia. This is an extremely unnatural alliance for a number of reasons. Firstly and most obviously, Azerbaijan expelled the Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh just a couple years ago, and all indications are that Azeri ambitions for Armenian territory have not ended. Secondly, it is somewhat reasonable to consider Azerbaijan to be a proxy of Turkey, or at the very least, a strong ally of Turkey. Armenian relations with Turkey are still sour for the historical reason that Turkey continues to deny the existence of the Armenian genocide. The fact that Armenia decided to side with a country which is actively seeking to annex their territory and a country which refuses to acknowledge they committed a genocide against them, against Armenia’s historical regional backer is extremely poor judgement by Pashinyan.

Overall I expect the Russians will not let Azeri threats impact their internal law enforcement and eventually Azerbaijan will stand down especially because from what I hear, Turkey does not want Azerbaijan-Russia relations to sour too much.