We’re heading for tens of metres of sea level rise
Posted by ratsrekop@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 64 comments
Posted by ratsrekop@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 64 comments
Prestigious-Copy-494@reddit
Drought decimating the crops is the biggest threat immediately. No crops to make grains to livestock or chickens, etc. Or grains for human consumption, bread, etc. We'll be able to keep some fields going due to irrigation but prices will be high due to shortages. Foreign countries already starving will have populations just dying off in starvation.
IGnuGnat@reddit
I don't understand why we still grow food in the dirt
vegetables grown via hydroponics grows faster than dirt based agriculture
vegetables grown via aquaponics grows faster than hydroponics
fish poop an awful lot and a well balanced system creates a massive bank of bacteria that converts waste into nutrients for the plants, returning clean water. It's so much more water efficient, and you get some extra fish based protein
Floorberries@reddit
How many years might it take to recoup setup costs on a large commercial project like this?
IGnuGnat@reddit
I don't really know how to answer that question. There are more upfront costs, it requires some knowledge of animal husbandry in addition to vegetable farming, you would need a disaster recovery plan which would involve the ability to dispose of large amounts of dead fish in case things go awry.
You would save some money on chemical or oil based fertilizer (you don't need to purchase fertilizer) and pesticides (you can't use pesticides in aquaponics really) but you would have additional vegetable harvests, and you have diversified your crops to include fish so if you have a vegetable crop failure you should be able to still keep the fish alive and harvest them.
Do you have greenhouses already? if not you need greenhouses
You can set up the system to run off literally just one pump, and design it so that the solids are automatically collected in a sump tank to make it easy to siphon them off and bottle them and potentially sell them; you could become a fertilizer PRODUCER instead of a fertilizer consumer. As oil and chemical fertilizers get more expensive this becomes liquid gold
Prestigious-Copy-494@reddit
Oh I agree. These could be part of a solution. Had some hydroponic strawberries last week, they were delicious.
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
Yep, but not before a lot of mass social violence takes place and many governments worldwide are toppled.
Zzzzzzzzzxyzz@reddit
I don't think we do know what to do. I think that paralyzing ignorance keeps us from taking action.
This messaging needs to change:
We need to slow waaaay down. Sleep more, chill, lay around, rest. Stroll. Take our time.
Take a sailboat or a bike.
On the other hand, babies are starving to death and worse. We have some urgent work to do.
This is a marathon, not a spirit. We need to pace ourselves. We need to stop flying, probably. We still have trains with WiFi. Have you ever ridden over night on a sleeper train? Incredible experience. And you can work remote! Why not? Enjoy five star meals and scenery, room service, all the perks. I bet first class even has private cabins with full shower bathrooms and storage.
But those train workers need rest too! Anyways, are you really flying right now? Why so much risk?
AccumulatedFilth@reddit
At the same time, set some money aside, because water will be scarce.
leisurechef@reddit
Long before that we will see global bread basket failures & climate refugee migration beyond comprehension
GalacticCrescent@reddit
this video claims we'll hit 1.5c in 20 years instead of last year, the timelines in it are already hopium
misbehavingwolf@reddit
No we're not! No! No...no we're not.
False-Verrigation@reddit
We’re in a 8+ scenario, sea level rise is happening and soon.
And if you are familiar with the rest of this scenario, yeah, the sea level rise isn’t the worst of it.
misbehavingwolf@reddit
TheHistorian2@reddit
I’m sure it will happen, but I’m not convinced that we won’t have other problems destroy us before the coastal cities sink.
nashty2004@reddit
Years before then AI will have either killed us all or solved climate change
loose_the-goose@reddit
AI might well achieve one of those things, the other, not so much
AirdustPenlight@reddit
Saltwater contamination and waste backing up.
voice-of-reason_@reddit
Yeah I’ve followed climate change my whole life and for the past 10 years the environmental impacts are the least concerning to me.
Fascism, unrest and economic turmoil will be the worst.
Bigginge61@reddit
War, World War is coming…That means annihilation for all of us.
Armouredmonk989@reddit
That's why I focus on the now there is no tomorrow.
s0cks_nz@reddit
The environmental impacts are what will prompt fascism and unrest.
Commandmanda@reddit
But it's not just sea level rise. It's the capacity of the atmosphere to hold more water. This causes droughts in one place, and floods in another. Think about all the instances of catastrophic flooding we've heard about just this year.
These droughts are already destroying crop yields around the globe. As it continues, more and more previously fertile land will be washed away or baked into nothingness. The end result will be famine.
Sea level rise is happening, and will continue at an accelerated pace, exponentially. This may or may not affect you personally, but it is hitting places like The Philippines now. If you live at or below sea level near a shore, things can get dicey PDQ. And hurricanes...don't even get me started.
spacegamer2000@reddit
Sea level rise would be amazing to witness but fascism or famine will get most of us first.
billcube@reddit
"might occur as early as 2100". That's how you turn off any sense of ownership, emergency or willingness to act.
PintLasher@reddit
Right. More like IS happening right now and needs to be mitigated.
PacsoT@reddit
Haha, you think, wording can change anyone's mind who is actually in power, to change his course of action?
Sinnedangel8027@reddit
But that might make people feel bad, worried, anxious, and otherwise. And we can't have that. Only positivity and good vibes are allowed.
VendettaKarma@reddit
Hope so
XI_Vanquish_IX@reddit
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we already are at 1.5c of warming and rapidly on pace to double that in a decade or two if we are lucky. Moreover, sea level rise is not what is going to kill is.
It will be famine, war, and disease. And they are all now. Not 2100
poop-machines@reddit
1.5C is a 20 moving average. At the moment we are not at 1.5C.
We are at 1.5C for the last year or two.
Obviously it's likely we will stay at 1.5C but the climate fluctuates which is exactly why we use moving averages.
The temperature targets "1.5C", "2C" etc. have always been targets for the moving average.
She is correct.
s0cks_nz@reddit
Semantics. We won't have another year below 1.5C, therefore we are at 1.5C.
poop-machines@reddit
No it isn't semantics.
Climate science uses rolling averages (10+ years) for temperature rise to smooth out short term fluctuations caused by natural variability like volcanic eruptions, El Niño events, or unusually cold or warm years. This helps reveal long term trends driven by human activity rather than random noise. Using a single yearly average can mislead by exaggerating or downplaying changes due to those short-term blips, obscuring the true trajectory of climate change.
Because climate studies use rolling averages to analyze long term trends, we should also use them when discussing those studies. If we cite a single year's temperature to compare, we're not talking about the same data or conclusions the studies are based on. Using rolling averages keeps the conversation aligned with the scientific method and avoids drawing false conclusions from short-term noise.
It's a disgrace that you're upvoted for this mind numbing commment in the collapse sub. You'd expect people here to be more climate aware.
idmarrybroccoli@reddit
I thought given the rate of acceleration the moving average of 20 years has become obsolete? The next 18 years will probably be over 1.5 degrees. Not much won by finally admitting that, when reality has already caught up to 2.5C warming
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
Yes and exactly.
The old measure is hilariously obsolete. Has been for years, yet many still hold it as the standard, despite obvious acceleration.
spoonfed05@reddit
We’re not going to hit 3 degrees of warming in 10 years. Otherwise, yeah I agree with you.
XI_Vanquish_IX@reddit
Famous last words
sunny-916@reddit
Uhhh, that quote always gets me
Velocipedique@reddit
While inconsequential in our lifetimes, once ice sheets "get going" big time, the outpouring of glacial meltwaters is incredible and can be seen on any Google maps these days. Checkout the Hudson, Desoto and Mississippi submarine canyons just for starters as to what happens. During the last deglaciation 20 to 10ka ago meltwaters from the Laurentide ice sheets rushed down the lower Mississippi Valley and eroded the equivalent of the Grand Canyon to depths of several thousand feet, and then filled it halfway back up! Mere observations of a paleoceanographer.
Reqvhio@reddit
One Piece, here I come!
Aeceus@reddit
Sea level rise will be the least impactful thing from all this IMO.
beangone666@reddit
When is it going to happen? It's been almost here for my whole 35 year stay on earth so far.
PortlandoCalrissian@reddit
One day we’ll make thumbnails that aren’t cringe. That day isn’t today.
BadgerKomodo@reddit
My house will probably be underwater within a decade.
Ok_Act_5321@reddit
sea rise is presented like the no.1 effect of climate change. Billions will die of heat waves and other extreme events before its even worth considering
XI_Vanquish_IX@reddit
1.5c is in itself an arbitration that is serving to confuse more than inform. If we have been over 1.5c for two years, when do we “lock it in?” When we get to twenty years of the number being over the threshold? What if the departure from averages skyrockets and we get 3c warming over historical record for 2 years, but 10 years from now? Do we wait another 20 before calling the game cooked?
No, having one year over a threshold is not indicative in and of itself, but let’s not pretend we are still “under” 1.5c of warming. It’s here.
Amazing-Marzipan3191@reddit
Hansen et al. propose a scenario where ice melt doubles every 10 years due to feedbacks and warming now already underway. Which means we're likely to see sea level rise of \~30mm per year by 2050 and around 6m (total) by 2100. Not centuries, decades. At most. That gigantic amount of freshwater melt will almost certainly lead to the collapse of the AMOC. And finally that amount of warming, melting and climate current disruption will lead to new, unknown, tipping points tipping.
DirewaysParnuStCroix@reddit
I'm surprised the theory of methane hydrate destabilization hasn't gained more traction in this context. It's a pretty specific hypothetical feedback to AMOC collapse and would result in catastrophic warming trajectories. I've seen various dismissals of it ranging from "it'll take thousands of years" and "the methane will dissolve before reaching the surface" (funny how there's never any similar nuance when people start parroting nonsense about a return to glacial conditions in Europe) but given the unprecedented rate at which things are accelerating, maybe it's time to consider the fact that further warming of equatorial waters is perhaps a guaranteed hothouse transition trigger.
Distinct_Wishbone_87@reddit
Sea level rise feels like one of those topics that will always be greatly underestimated. With the collective impact of tipping points…. Faster than expected perhaps 🤔
CharIieMurphy@reddit
I feel like it's overestimated, most people I've talked to think rising sea levels are literally the only consequence of climate change. So if they don't live the coast it will never affect them
scootunit@reddit
Luckily those people that don't need to worry also don't need to worry about all the ports that will be flooded. Cuz those people don't need anything that doesn't come from nearby I'm sure international commerce shutting down will also not affect them.
Chnkypndy@reddit
I haven't read up on the consequences of rising sea levels so I could be wrong. If my assumption is correct, most of our cargo is transported via water, and if that were to rise, then wouldn't it wreak havoc on our supply chains? Existing ports would no longer be of use and I don't even know what would happen to canals.
Amazing-Marzipan3191@reddit
Downvoted because of the "we're at 1.2-1.3 degrees" and we're not, but upvoted your first comment because you're right. Don't forget your submission statement ;).
PhoenixAsh7117@reddit
1.2-1.3C is using a 132 month moving average I think, which was an ok metric in the past when the signal was hidden in the noise, but the signal is fuckleaps higher than the noise now and 132 month moving average is too slow to be useful.
Deguilded@reddit
I hear things like that and I just mentally bring forward all their projections.
"it doesn't mean climate action is futile"... okay.
6rwoods@reddit
"Officially", though, is that not still the long(ish) term average?
We people in the know realise that after pretty much two straight years of temperatures above 1.5C that there's not way that avg temps will go down below 1.5C again any time soon, but that doesn't mean that the longer-term running average has quite caught up with that.
If anything, if someone is making online content for a wide audience like the person in the video (which admitedly I haven't watched it), it makes sense to stick to the widely known and confirmable data over using very recent data that leads to a bigger claim, and risks alienating viewers who will now think she's making stuff up.
LocusofZen@reddit
This is where I stopped listening. Not interested in listening to people who couldn't get their own background information correct.
ratsrekop@reddit (OP)
I know right! It's kinda scary how deep in the sand you need to be buried to think that
Amazing-Marzipan3191@reddit
And the weird dissonance of people repeating the mantra that preventing every fraction of a degree rise is important, but then not accepting that every fraction of a degree is important when understanding where we actually are now, so they stick to the party line of 1.2.
Far_Out_6and_2@reddit
Warming has already passed 1.5 degrees
whichkey45@reddit
She is underplaying the severity of coming sea level rise.
Early this century the doubling period for contribution to sea level rise from land-based ice was seven years. I stopped following closely. I am interested in the current rates but I assume it isn't slowing down.
There was close to four metres a century sea level rise during meltwater pulse 1a. The front of the various ice sheets was much bigger at that point, but I would bet on us moving pretty steadily towards similar melt now. Some forecasts have more sea level rise predicted. We're not slowing down our use of fossil fuels as long as we have capitalism, and I don't see capitalism going anywhere any time soon.
StealthFocus@reddit
Yeah let’s see if any of the people in power start selling their island and beach properties. Doubt it
TopSloth@reddit
They say if all the ice melted in the world that sea levels would rise over 80 meters and we are definitely changing the earth to the point where there will be no ice
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/ratsrekop:
A discussion from someone who used to be quite optimistic, it talks about a new study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02299-w That claims that our safe warming to limit sea level rise is only around 1c. As many here feel, that's unfortunately long gone.... With more in the pipeline than is suggested would be the safe limit for adaptation I guess there will be more new seafront properties created and not built
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1kwhpl1/were_heading_for_tens_of_metres_of_sea_level_rise/muhcq5z/
ratsrekop@reddit (OP)
A discussion from someone who used to be quite optimistic, it talks about a new study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02299-w That claims that our safe warming to limit sea level rise is only around 1c. As many here feel, that's unfortunately long gone.... With more in the pipeline than is suggested would be the safe limit for adaptation I guess there will be more new seafront properties created and not built