Terribly wrong predictions about the future

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sbgoofus@reddit

two I remember

nuclear power will make electricity too cheap to meter

the office computer will work so quick - we'll all be working 3 day work weeks

... so anytime something new comes along - the first thing I do is ignore the projections

oh yeah..the lotto will completely fund schools to amazing levels and

legalizing pot will generate so much tax dollars that city and property taxes will drop to almost nothing

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Your dad and mine must have been bowling buddies. You have any idea how much emotional scarring is involved in being the family that has a betamax and can only select from the scarcely stocked "BETA" aisle at the rental shop?

The mistakes continued straight into video games. Can't swap carts with friends when you're rocking the Sega Master System.

I miss that dude, even if every technology pick he made was a loser.

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ZombiesCall@reddit

My dad fell in the Betamax trap. No one else we knew had one, but goddammit, that was what he wanted.

Am I the only one with this problem?

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MikeTheBard@reddit

Up into the 90s at least, radio stations still used 8 track format for commercials and station ID because the quality was better and they could be looped.

Betamax was also the superior format, but VHS won out for being cheaper. Beta survived a couple decades longer than people think, though- it was still being used in TV studios.

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deyemeracing@reddit

Betamax was technologically superior to what we ended up with (VHS). Sometimes the loser wins. Sony got their revenge later, though, with Blu-Ray beating out the competition.

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orthopod@reddit

Beta was a better format, but an hour long format was a loser.

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mike71diesel@reddit

In Europe there was somebody that bought Philips/Grundig/Telefunken Video 2000 VCRs. The main, problem being designed in Europe, was that they were designed for 50Hz PAL or SECAM operation first and 60Hz NTSC models were designed as an aftertought, so they had a very small US/Canada and Japan market share. .

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chompy_jr@reddit

Betamax was actually a better technology. I think someone else mentioned something about porn initially not being available on VHS, but I think it was more than just porn, I think there were licensing issues along the way as well.

And while off topic, we're the same country who saw the A&W 1/3 burger fail because most Americans thought/think a quarter is more than a third.

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mike71diesel@reddit

As I said in othe post it was that RCA VCRs could record for hours on a single tape and coul program more than one unattended recording.

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HardlyAnyGravitas@reddit

Betamax was actually a better technology.

People always say this and it's not true.

VHS decks were always more advanced than Betamax decks. Technology connections has several videos comparing the two formats, and here's an actual side by side comparison of the quality of Betamax vs VHS:

https://youtu.be/_oJs8-I9WtA

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chompy_jr@reddit

Thanks for the link. Everything I’ve ever read slanted to Betamax. I appreciate this.

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HardlyAnyGravitas@reddit

The Technology Connections channel is great - check out his other videos.

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tultamunille@reddit

Funny thing is they were more! 2 quarter pounders were cheaper than a 1/3 pounder, as was everything else at McDonalds compared to A&W.

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50YearsofFailure@reddit

I think there were licensing issues along the way as well.

This is the real reason VHS prevailed. Betamax had marginally better video quality, but the format was developed by Sony and they were overly restrictive on licensing it to other manufacturers. VHS was a JVC product and they licensed it to everyone (including Sony), meaning the market was soon flooded with VHS players which drove the price down.

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Bratbabylestrange@reddit

'Murica!

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Shaydu@reddit

That's the story I always heard--porn chose VHS, and it was very popular because people could watch it without going to sticky adult theaters.

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Rhickkee@reddit

Very smart comment.

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We very narrowly missed BETA. Dad had gave the go ahead for a VCR. It was still a very expensive purchase and exciting so I accompanied mom to the local appliance store. She listened to the salesman rattle off pluses and minuses for a half hour with her eyes glazed over and finally got down to two choices, BETA or VHS. She was only picked the VHS because it was cheaper by just a few dollars.

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TimHuntsman@reddit

From what I’ve heard Betamax’s ultimate decline was the Porn industry went to VHS instead of Betamax. Same thing happened between BluRay and whatever MSFTs format was 20 years ago

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shotsallover@reddit

And MiniDV vs the other small video recording format at the time.

I spent my formative years ripping my vic20 on its bezel and jamming cartridges in the back to play games no one had ever heard of aside from Adventure and The Count.

That said we had a record player, 8 track and a cassette player boom box. The best part was still having that 8 track in 1990 when I moved out to wow my friends with my Queen collection and Styx greatest hits.

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OkManufacturer767@reddit

The saddest part about that is how the betamax was the superior one. We all lost.

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WiWook@reddit

Sadly, in both cases, dad was right BETA was the better system, so much so that most television stations used BETA. the video and sound quality was that much better. Sega beat Atari and Nintendo for graphics and system quality. Unfortunately, as with so much, Price and availability beat quality. How many Walmarts and Dollar stores are around now days?

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LivingGhost371@reddit

Television stations used "Betacam", which was the professional version of Betamax, intially primarly as an ENG format. The cassette itself was the only thing in common, due to the much higher speed the standard sized cassette could only hold 30 minutes of Betacam. Later they made oversized cassettes for studio use that would go up to 90 minutes.

I remember reading Megatrends by John Naisbitt back in the early 1980s. It predicted that automation and technological advances would lead to higher earnings, shorter workweeks, and more leisure time for everyone.

He got the tech part right, but missed how corporate profit-seeking would keep most of those gains out of workers’ hands.

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HillbillyEEOLawyer@reddit

I remember in the 1990s when I thought the internet would make the U.S. home to a more informed and intelligent population.

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Apoptosis-Games@reddit

I remember using the internet in 1994.

Everytime you encountered someone stupid, you saw a glimpse of what the internet would turn into once the "normie" population got its hands on it.

Once DSL and Broadband took off and it became "always online" internet, those of us back then knew exactly what was gonna happen.

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Bratbabylestrange@reddit

Oops, ya called that one wrong, dint'cha? How I wish you had been right.

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Front-Cat-2438@reddit

🤣 Same. I thought it was the next step in human evolution, that we’d all know all the facts, so we could just jump off from the point of all shared knowledge. I forgot that humans prefer easy money and monopolizing anything and everything- knowledge behind paywalls? FFS.

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cybercuzco@reddit

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lol. i failed typing in HS- parents were pissed it was bringing down my gpa

you do t need typing skills- you’re going to be a nurse

sure jan

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Nackles@reddit

I got placed into typing my junior year, I was not expecting it at all because I was in the advanced academic track. And I was pissed about it possibly hurting my class rank.

currentsitguy@reddit (OP)

I thought the same thing and have been seriously disappointed ever since.

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geolaw@reddit

3rd or 4th grade in late 70s ... Metric system is coming any day now 😂

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darwhyte@reddit

Metric became official here in Canada in 1975, which was 50 years ago.

Despite the fact we are officially metric, the only thing Canadians use metric for is the daily temperatures which are in Celsius, driving speed which is Kilometers per hour, (KPH), driving distances which are in Kilometers, and gasoline/diesel which is sold in litres.

For everything else, we use standard measurements. When you ask someone how much they weigh or what some object weighs, NO ONE says the weight in Kilograms, it is ALWAYS pounds. NO ONE says I weigh 80 kilograms, they say I weigh 176 lbs. NO ONE gives their height in centimeters, they say feet and inches. I NEVER say I'm 190 centimeters tall, I ALWAYS say 6'3".

Also, when describing how late ng something is, or how far away something is, we NEVER use meters, we use feet. We NEVER say that board is 2.5 meters long, we say 8 feet long. We never say that picnic table is 15 meters away, we say it is 50 feet away.

My kid had her science final today. She filled out a cheat sheet she was permitted for the final. Teacher wasn’t there today, had a sub. Sub said “use your resources.” Kids all pulled out their phones.

Like, dude. How?? How do they allow this??

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clintj1975@reddit

I've had to bust out pen and paper for math at work before. Phone was in my locker because I was working on a job I didn't want to take it into, and we needed a rough weight estimate for a crane lift.

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hells_cowbells@reddit

I'm 1998 or so, I was buying a new PC, I believe it was an HP. There are two similar models, one with a ZIP drive, and one with a fancy new CD burner. I decided to get the one with the ZIP drive, because our university lab systems had those, and I could take them there to print stuff. Besides, those blank CDs were SO expensive. Oops.

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Rusty-P@reddit

It still blows my mind that the technology that allows us to record and read data with a laser, is now mostly obsolete.

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BrewCrewBall@reddit

Not trying to be the “one-upper” but my dad is the absolute king here.

Cars? AMC all the way (except for the one time he bought a Pinto!)

VCR? “Betamax has longer tapes and better quality!”

Gaming? Intellivision

Reflecting back I feel so happy I had those times. A bigger attitude of gratitude.

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KnoWanUKnow2@reddit

I had Colecovision over Atari, then Sega over Nintendo.

For every bad prediction... there's another prediction that's dead on the money...

iPad in other room as is HomePod.

Laptop 22 miles away in my classroom.

Only one device within 25 feet.

I’m a loser.

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Pleasebleed@reddit

Soy un perdedor

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briang71@reddit

No your not. I work in tech and purposely dont have a lot of tech at home. I have a normal watch, no tablet. But do like my iot devices, dual zone nests, cams all over, Alexa can turn all my lights on and off.

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Opposite_Eye9155@reddit

I’m jealous.

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Bratbabylestrange@reddit

We have one obsolete laptop, a decent desktop and then two smartphones. My husband has a Samsung watch that connects. I have a cheapie $40 activity tracker, but it's only connected to my phone to transmit and doesn't access anything else.

I've never seen the necessity of having a "smart" toaster oven or the like. Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't watching you!

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GrumpyCatStevens@reddit

All I have right the moment is my smartphone - but that’s because I’m not at home at the moment. Ther you’ll also find my wife’s smartphone, two laptops, a desktop computer and a smart TV.

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Winter-Fondant7875@reddit

.... but .... how many things have memory and callable programs in them in 10ft?

I'm looking at my roku, thermostat, dishwasher, oven, washer, dryer, and stereo. They're NOT IoT, but my stuff does rely on loaded programs.

That's cool. I had a friend whose dad worked at Martin Marietta (Lockheed Martin before the merger with Lockheed). They were the only family I knew who had a PC in the 80s and it had something to do with his job, but I never fully knew what/how.

Remember laser disk? We used to have a video store that rented out the laser max machines 1/2 price of renting a vhs machine. My sister and I spent many weekends in the early 80 watching those. Good time.

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Elbarto_007@reddit

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In terms of bad predictions, all I can remember is the general assumption that we would have people actually living in space by now. Silly of us to assume that mankind would be able to cooperate enough to accomplish something like that.

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LabradorDeceiver@reddit

There's a scene in an episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation where Riker visits the Ready Room to give a report to Picard - and gives him the entire PADD.

It seemed to me, watching in 2025, to be a weird thing to do. He didn't E-mail it, didn't do a file transfer, he handed over the actual hardware. To keep. I think he left it on the edge of the desk or something.

It reminded me of something I realized twenty years ago - NOBODY saw the Internet coming. Nobody. Not one single person. Not even the people who were working on it. Not even the people who expected it. Of course he didn't E-mail his report - what even was E-mail in 1988? Information came on a medium.

You can see it by comparing the media of the early 1990s with the media just ten years later. Marty McFly travels to the futuristic year of 2015, where cars fly, flatscreens are REALLY flat, there's a fax machine in every room - and there are no smartphones, e-readers, GPS, or other devices. When Doc Brown wants to show Marty why they're there, he whips out a newspaper.

cuzwhat@reddit

It was 1998 and famed Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman delivered this sage bit of forecasting:

“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.

My mom: When you get married and he sees that, he’ll leave you.

Me: Why would I ever marry such a shallow person?

Haha! I married a woman and was a teacher for many years.

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Baldginger1111@reddit

Well all live happily ever after

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themighty351@reddit

We got lost in a strange neiborhood test driving a big ol caddy convertible that my dad wanted. Like 1978 or. He had a kick ass chevelle and mom had a convertible it might have been a malibu green i think.

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happycj@reddit

During the Gas Crisis my Dad bought a Mercedes Benz 300D diesel, because gas was never going to be as cheap as diesel. We went on vacation to Germany, picked it up at the factory, and drove around Europe in it for a month on an epic family vacation.

At the end of the trip we loaded it on a ship bound for the USA, and it took about 3 months to arrive in the Port of Los Angeles…. by which time gas prices had come down dramatically and diesel was more expensive.

I once knew a guy who told me he had 1000 Apple shares in the late 90's and got rid of them because he thought Apple was going nowhere. He told me he paid $25 per share to get them. He never told me what he sold them for, but he used ALL of the money he got for the Apple stocks to buy Nortel stocks!

He dumped Apple for Nortel!

At the time he told me this it was 2009, and by that time Nortel was almost out of business and their shares were less than $1 each. Meanwhile at that time, Apple stocks had risen to $700 a piece!

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bobcatbill986@reddit

I admit to being very myopic concerning what was going on in the future. I installed an 8-track tape player in my van. Fortunately somebody even dumber than me stole it and all of my tapes. So I installed the cassette player guilt free. Thank you Tom I Know Who You Are.

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cosmic_scott@reddit

first computer my mom bought was a Lazer.

an apple clone her friend assured her was "exactly the same".

it wasn't.

then she bought an atari 800xl.

this had cartridges, and no storage. she eventually got me a tape drive, then eventually a single disk drive.

then, she bought a kaypro model 2 green screen. two disk drives and a tiny herc/monochrome monitor and attached keyboard.

it was a luggable computer i took to college because it had a word processor on it. i did all my homework freshman year on that kaypro.

she did manage to buy me a Hayes modem so i could chat with my friends (san diego had a great bbs scene in the 80s and 90s).

fucking lear jet modem on a vw bug frame. had to run a program called "baud" to get faster than 300 bps. and a program called "term" where i got to tell the modem to dial manually.

yeah, my mom never understood technology.

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GrumpyCatStevens@reddit

My “upgrade” from my C64 was a Compaq “portable” computer. It was a hand-me-down from the CPA firm my mom worked for.

It was portable, but it was also heavier than all but one of the guitar amps I’ve owned through the years.

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cosmic_scott@reddit

and 90% of that weight was power supply!

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yeah, the BBS scene for me was more centralized.

Hop>Scotch was when the CONNECTED BBS' started to really make social groups.

And yes, meeting people from the internet in malls/restaurants is totally a gen-x thing!

Coffee at 2am? sure!

"Coffee" was the catchall name for meeting a group of "freaks".

HopScotch, LISA, LOLA, and Anarchy X were the biggest names in chat before the internet REALLY took off in the 90's, with IRC and the rest.

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absherlock@reddit

Our Apple clone was a Franklin 2e.

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cosmic_scott@reddit

I feel for you

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dilithium@reddit

I remember ads for those things, the laser 128 that looked like an Apple IIc. In what ways were they bad clones?

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cosmic_scott@reddit

Apple clones aren't real. Apple was SUPER secure in their manufacturing, and only Apple parts fit Apple products. Still applies today.

There are a million PC parts suppliers, only ONE apple supplier.

So...yeah...didn't work out very well, since none of the software for apple actually worked for it!

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Funwithagoraphobia@reddit

Got my first computer with a built-in math coprocessor in 1994. Ostensibly for college. Realistically for X-Wing and MUDs.

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Two things from elementary school in the 1970s:

"Get ready kids - her comes the metric system!"

"You will all be driving diesel cars when you get older!"

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GrumpyCatStevens@reddit

I remember car rags in the late ‘70s saying performance cars would never come back. Then in 1982, Ford introduced a “high-output” variant of their 5.0L V8 making a scorching 157 hp. Yes, you read that correctly - one hundred fifty-seven horsepower!

When I started driving, my first used car had a cassette player.

By the time I graduated from college, CDs were all the rage in my vehicle.

Today, it's all about Bluetoothing Spotify.

rogun64@reddit

Technological innovations have surpassed my lofty expectations, but our humanity hasn't even come close. Yes, we have improved in some areas, but we've regressed in others and I just expected we'd be far more civilized today. I know some will say I was naive, and they were right, but you don't improve without expectations.

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Occumsmachete@reddit

I had a black 78 Buick regal with burgundy interior in 1988. Great sedan, but I blew the motor. Cost 1400 for a rebuilt 8 cylinder lol. I put some nice chrome rims on it.

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Mercury5979@reddit

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That reminds me of the scene in That 70’s Show when Kelso made the Pong game more challenging by rewiring it to have smaller paddles.

Red: “Congratulations, son! You have seen the future!”.

Kelso: “Yeah, yeah, you’re so right, Red! Home computers! That is the future!”.

Red: “No, no, no. Not computers! Soldering! The future is soldering.

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ComfortableGap4964@reddit

1979, Niagara on the Lake, Ontario, Canada. I'd buy two or three shares in Trivial Pursuit.

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One_Hour_Poop@reddit

Nuclear war by 1995.

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Justify-my-buy@reddit

Buying a Buick Regal was a questionable decision In 1978. My parents sold theirs to buy a used Datsun due to the oil embargo.

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LONGVolSilver@reddit

Nanotechnology- that was supposed to be HUGE -Space Elevators- Theoretically possible, but not feasible
3D Television ( it came, was pointless, and went)
After the Cold War ended, there were highly regarded historians and political analysts calling it the "End of History" , implying that there would be no more traditional wars, border conflicts, etc. This proved accurate for about 2 years, before Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait.

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currentsitguy@reddit (OP)

"End of History"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassette_tape#Popularity_of_music_cassettes

The compact cassette format was initially designed for dictation and portable use, and the audio quality of early players was not well-suited for music. In 1971, the Advent Corporation introduced their Model 201 tape deck that combined Dolby type B noise reduction and chromium(IV) oxide (CrO2) tape, with a commercial-grade tape transport mechanism supplied by the Wollensak camera division of 3M Corporation. This resulted in the format being taken more seriously for musical use, and started the era of high fidelity cassettes and players.

JtownATX01@reddit

My father refused to buy a cd player even though he had reel to reel, vinyl and a dual cassette deck in his stereo cabinet. He was "holding out for DAT", a technology that never went anywhere or mainstream. Now he uses streaming and mp3s like everyone else

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