Rubio says Pentagon intelligence shows that Syria’s government could collapse in weeks, triggering ‘full-blown civil war’ | Warning comes a day after Damascus authorities issued a 10-day ultimatum to the Kurdish-led SDF
Posted by 1DarkStarryNight@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 69 comments
conejo_gordito@reddit
Hmmm, I wonder... Is the SDF so central to Israel's plans, or did Bibi realize that the new Syrian government will not be his puppet that he is pulling our leash to come up with s.t like this?
Just a month or two after the Arabs, the Turks and the Europeans and whatnot said they will stand by the new government too!
ComprehensiveTill736@reddit
Which is crazy because Syria offered to recognize Israel.
Areilyn@reddit
It's clickbait is why.
You can take a look at the speech for yourself here. It's 5 minutes.
Just-Sale-7015@reddit
Also, Rubio not the best speaker in such free form. He literally said the US has no Patriots in another segment (referring to the missiles) of the same hearing.
mwa12345@reddit
Did he mean ..US has no patriots to spare? Rubio is a stooge
Just-Sale-7015@reddit
Yeah, that's what he meant. But like with this quote about Syria (which was predicated on some stuff, like the US not helping the new government), if you take him literally it sound like the sky is falling.
Icy-Blueberry2032@reddit
End times any day now..
-evangelical repubs feverishly clutching their story book.
Own_Thing_4364@reddit
Imagine thinking everything is some ~~Jewish~~ Zionist plot and no one else has any agency.
Eexoduis@reddit
It’s either a Zionist plot or a CIA plot.
Omergad_Geddidov@reddit
I mean there literally was a CIA plot, Timber Sycamore where the US gave rebels including jihadists, weapons. The US did sanction Syria.
Israel did bomb the Syrian army everyday and later destroyed basically all of the Syrian army’s weapons depots and vehicles when Assad fell. Israel literally claimed credit for weakening Hezbollah and Syria.
There’s even more that other American allies like Turkey or Ukraine did, but you get the point. Why do people pretend like this happened on its own when it didn’t?
Eexoduis@reddit
Timber Sycamore gets mentioned at least once a day in this subreddit on any post about Syria.
We know. We know that the CIA and State Department funded elements of the Free Syrian Army in 2013-2017.
We know that the US coalition entered Syria through Iraq (legally) to oppose ISIS, and assisted the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Force in establishing a territorial foothold free of ISIS and Assad’s forces.
We know that Turkey funds and backs the (admittedly quite heinous) Syrian National Army to oppose both Assad and the Kurds.
We know that Israel did not involve themselves in Syria until after Assad fell and Russian military assets were abandoned or withdrawn.
The rebellion was not initiated by the CIA and it wasn’t won by the CIA. The rebellion didn’t become truly viable (after 2015 that is) until Russia and Iran became preoccupied with their own conflicts.
Omergad_Geddidov@reddit
Why do you acknowledge all of this stuff and pretend to be confused when people bring it up. Naming and knowing about these things doesn’t enable you to ignore them. It’s like acknowledging the US, Saudi, and Pakistani operations in Afghanistan during the cold war and then getting mad other people bring up that the Taliban taking power wasn’t organic.
Also, Israel was bombing Syria even before Assad fell, especially after October 2023. They famously bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus. There really is just no way the Syrian rebels win without the US, Israel, et al. supporting the offensive that was ultimately successful after a decade of intervention. Before 2024, the Civil War was considered over, with Assad being the winner.
loggy_sci@reddit
For some reason you’re focusing on the U.S. and Israel and not Turkey, who are primary here. Turkey saw that the security situation in the region was changing to their advantage and took the opportunity to push out Assad, with U.S. approval.
It’s not some big elaborate plot. If Assad wasn’t such a dogshit politician he might still be in charge, but he refused to come to terms with Turkey.
Omergad_Geddidov@reddit
Turkey is important in the very last death blow phase of the war, but the US and Israel ensured that Syria had no allies and the US put sanctions on Syria’s economy. Israel boasted about knocking out, and distracting Hezbollah and Iran, and the US and Ukraine distracted Russia.
I have no problem acknowledging Turkey, these countries are ultimately all part of the same side. Turkey had slightly different goals and concerns in regards to proxies it was backing and fighting in Syria, but ultimately its part of NATO, its an ally of the US, and economic partner of Israel, despite the rhetoric. Assad had been put in a weak position from the stalemate before because of the actions of the US, Israel, and others that allowed Turkey to sweep in. The war was always a team effort.
loggy_sci@reddit
Turkey is important all the way through this. If you don’t understand that then you don’t understand what just happened.
Nobody is denying that Turkey and the U.S. are strategic partners but Turkey and Israel are not. They are not working together in Syria in some plot. They’re barely even talking right now except for how to avoid hitting each other.
People often get so focused on the U.S. and Israel as the big global bad guys that they reduce the capacity or agency of other regional actors.
Omergad_Geddidov@reddit
Turkey could do a lot more to harm Israel, but it doesn’t. Turkey sends oil to Israel. Israel and Turkey were both for weakening Assad if not toppling him in the case of Israel. Turkey is a powerful state compared to other US allies and uses that to sneak an extra concession here and there.
It may come into friction with the US sometimes on issues like Kurdish militias, but ultimately Turkey realized America’s goal to topple Assad. It remains the biggest army in NATO after America. I don’t even disagree with you that Turkey is powerful, but agency is always a relative thing, even Turkey’s proxy, HTS has agency.
You also can’t understand what happened without talking about sanctions and the distraction of Syria’s allies. For example, the SAA’s salaries had been cut due to sanctions and at the time of the invasion soldiers had second jobs or were ghost soldiers. Israel distracted Hezbollah and Iran so Axis of Resistance militias couldn’t come to Syria’s aid. Turkey is important, but it is not the most important or only factor in Assad’s fall.
mwa12345@reddit
Nice try . some facts mixed in with lies Israel was paying some of the jihadists lot before Assad left
Documented and acknowledged by Z's.
But then . Hasbara has gotta lie
funditinthewild@reddit
Then why is Israel intervening so heavily? I’m not saying Syrians aren’t responsible for themselves but invading a new state isn’t making it sound like they aren’t trying to influence the outcome of that state.
smallsponges@reddit
Israel is raiding around the south because they don’t know what the heck is going on like the rest of us and they want to be ready.
The two major players are Damascus and the SDF. The US and Turkey are a layer above.
https://thecradle.co/articles/us-sponsored-ceasefire-falls-apart-in-north-syria-as-clashes-reignite-between-sdf-govt-forces
LowRevolution6175@reddit
Israel obsession syndrome as the top comment. Color me surprised.
17RicaAmerusa76@reddit
What is the ZOG nonsense?
"that he is pulling our leash to come up with s.t like this?"
nof@reddit
Those governments want to send the refugees back to Syria, so they'll back whoever really.
beyondmash@reddit
SDF wants to modernise but I do see them becoming Jordan Lite based of their anti corruption policies and what Julani is echoeing. I imagine they will not do it country is on its last legs and everyone is exhausted.
Julani is definitely struggling to keep it together based of the last months purge. We’ll see.
OrangutanKiwi19@reddit
They're not. What exactly makes you think that they are?
AWildNome@reddit
There's no mention of the SDF in the actual article or title, I'm not sure if it's changed since OP posted or something.
Corben11@reddit
Saudi Arabia and Qatar just paid off Syrian debt to the tune of 15.5 million.
The hell is Rubio smoking that they think Saudi Arabia and Qatar wouldn't have done that ans have some kind of control.
They even are getting a deal set up with the word bank for infrastructure.
LawsonTse@reddit
He is urging US politician to actually lift the sanction as Trump promised given much of the sanctions are imposed by Congress. If Syria remained under sanctions, there's a very real possibility that the new regime may collapse from bankruptcy as the gulf states can't easily invest their resources into helping Syria without triggering US sanctions
Illustrious-Sky-4631@reddit
It's not just Saudi Arabia and Qatar , it's turkey and the majority of the EU as well
Corben11@reddit
They also paid off the debt?
Illustrious-Sky-4631@reddit
Kind of , some dropped a part of the debts , my point was for the accept and being very opened to diplomatic relations
mwa12345@reddit
Few months back, they had also engaged with Assad
Fair to say, folks in middle east are looking to focus on things other than wars . ..and more to other priorities.
Wish we could, in the US as well.
But then, outlet government is occupied -by war mongering neo cons .
Illustrious-Sky-4631@reddit
Let's say that ME is currently in the era of "economy and improvement for life quality >>> having a bunch of stupid strongmen trash talking to each others daily and waging wars"
mwa12345@reddit
I know right Unlike the civilized the west .that can't seem to go more than a few decades with funding some mass slaughter...it carrying it out themselves.
Trash talk by strong men is actually not a problem.
It is when they lean towards socialism, and not being reliable stooges - that they become a problem
You are poorly informed if you think we didn't have a huge role
https://youtu.be/UcWs4TFSjrY?si=8XEK5YvN1VApPO6r
But then ..the media and government relies on low information people to be brainwashed
Illustrious-Sky-4631@reddit
The west are currently busy with their own political and economic chaos to cause problems for other nations especially the ME
And that's not taking into account the rivalry with China and Russia
mwa12345@reddit
Untrue
We have been talking about pivoting ...but then libbies make sure we don't Even a quick check on the amount of money spent by US in the last 2 decades (6-8 Trillion ) will give you a clue.
Not to mention the countries that bombed Libya , Syria...
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/raf-flies-250-surveillance-flights-near-gaza-in-six-months/
Just a sample You won't see this covered much in the media
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/04/politics/cost-us-military-houthis-limited-impact/index.html
The amount spent on Yemen in a few weeks is probably a low estimation.
But 5hen.. toy sound like a low information moron.
Corben11@reddit
Oh I think I understand your point.
Like a lot of countries are on board.
smallsponges@reddit
This isn’t Rubio threatening Syria…
mwa12345@reddit
Think this is to justify removing US sanctions on the government headed by a guy we called terrorist until a few months back .
Saudi and Qatar likely got US OK before doing this in the first place .
jstrong546@reddit
This sounds like a thinly veiled threat to me.
“Be a real shame if you guys had another civil war”
Obviously things are more complex than that, but given the United States extensive history of meddling and provocation it’s hard not to view it through that lens. For the sake of everyone in Syria let’s hope and pray there is not another civil war. It should be in everyone’s interest to put this on ice quickly.
the-bladed-one@reddit
What interest of ours would this serve? The current government at least seems willing to play ball with us
mwa12345@reddit
Because some in the west have sorta admitted that ...a 'no outcome" would be better in Syria than any government.
Bit like during WW2 .."if the Russians are winning, we should help the Germans. If the Germans are winning, we should help the Russians ".... obviously,before pearl harbor.
The current government maybe playing ball ..but even that may not be enough.
the-bladed-one@reddit
The fuck are you saying? The US never entertained supporting Nazi germany. We began sending the Soviets military equipment and logistical support when they were getting their butts kicked by the Nazis, support even Stalin admitted they would have lost without
mwa12345@reddit
You are vehement in your ignorance. Maybe read a book once ina while.
The person that I mentioned was Harry S Truman .He didn't want Germany to win. But did want them to take each other down. In other words...bloodshed.
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/728071-if-we-see-that-germany-is-winning-we-ought-to
Just because you don't get some facts shoved down your throat in propaganda - does not make it untrue
What a moron!
the-bladed-one@reddit
Harry S Truman wasn’t the president at the time, nor did the actual president, FDR, ever seriously entertain that
mwa12345@reddit
Did I say FDR said that ? 2hat a dumb response.
You are clutching at straws .like a typical ignorant moron that is surprises with some new facts .. that don't agree with preconceived notions .
SUPERSAM76@reddit
Bold of you to think we’re in the Middle East for our own American interests.
rockythecocky@reddit
I know no one actually reads articles on Reddit, but if you had, you would have read this was a more of a threat towards the US Congress than the Syrian government. He's saying that without US support, he predicts that the Sryian government will collapse. Trump made that announcement recently about lifting sanctions on Syria, but a bunch of the sanctions were the result of acts made by Congress. Such as designating Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism back in the 70s. Which means he needs Congress to remove them. So Rubio is trying to warn Congress that, unless they remove those restrictions, the Syrian government is going to collapse, and the civil war start back up.
mwa12345@reddit
Yeah.Som3 if these sanctions were put to increase chances of civil war/strife...make the regime unpopular etc by starving g people .
Andovars_Ghost@reddit
Full blown civil war, unlike the half blown that they had previously? Seriously, there is no civil war ‘light’. If this is indeed the case, then the regional powers have an obligation to help diffuse the tensions.
Chalibard@reddit
There is the good civil war, the revolution, where the West support some rebels and gives money/weapon/trainings to topple Tyranny and there is the full blown civil war where the toppled government was defending american interests against extremists, this one is very bad!
mwa12345@reddit
Haha This
Legiyon54@reddit
I literally just thought about this today. How the term "civil war" almost always is needlessly dramatized with the "full blown" (or sometimes "full-on". I hear, and read it everywhere; articles, games, novels, movies, etc. Everywhere. Why is it almost never just "country descended into a civil war", why does it always have to be "full-blown civil war"?? Both mean the same thing 😭 Use other adjectives for God's sake
snowflake37wao@reddit
When they describe a civil war as an uncivil civil war, thats when you know shits really going down. On the same note, Ive seen a couple of “clickbait title” comments here (like every news thread on all subs these days, w/e headline commenters wtf/e). In this case it is a clickbait title, but its not the outlet reporter’s headline doing it. Its Rubio clickbaiting congress and other world leaders to reengage with the country, lift sanctions, and reassess designations such as civil or war or orgs or terrorist or else! The shit thats been happening will go full blown still happening!
mwa12345@reddit
Rubio is a stooge. Witkoff seemed to be doing things that Rubio would have
They replaced Walz 3itg this MoFo. Why even bother...
BendicantMias@reddit
Cos there are things that can be considered 'half blown' civil wars or the like. The Mexican or Columbian drug wars, for instance, or the now resolved civil war in Sri Lanka against the LTTE. What does a full blown one look like? Past Syria sure, or for another example, see Myanmar.
Legiyon54@reddit
There are other words for those. Civil strife/disorder is one most applicable. Brink of civil war, frozen/stagnated civil war, failed state, defacto autonimous regions, etc. Many different words to describe particular situation, without the need to emphesise that civil war is "full blown", which should br a given unless specified otherwise
decimeci@reddit
Civil war lite would be if one region in your country is rebelling, and full blown would be if the whole country is split into factions and there is no central authority. I guess that could be what people mean when they say full blown.
CobraPuts@reddit
I think because there can regularly be strife in these areas saying something like “full blown” is to make it clear they are not using hyperbole to describe the situation.
mwa12345@reddit
This After arming multiple groups ..over a decade, we have a "concern" about civil war? Gimme a break
BendicantMias@reddit
There is. Mexico just to your south can be said to have grappled with civil war 'lite'. Not quite the same extent of a clusterfuck as Myanmar is.
LowRevolution6175@reddit
I've seen different versions of this article. My understanding is that Rubio is calling to support the new government so that a new civil war doesn't happen.
So... let's all calm down because this is actually what everybody wants for Syria?
Check_Me_Out-Boss@reddit
They've been in a civil war for years, right?
BabylonianWeeb@reddit
OP, could you post the text from the article, it's paywalled.
andythepirate@reddit
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Tuesday that without robust US engagement, Syria’s government may collapse within weeks, potentially triggering a civil war of “epic proportions." Rubio spoke a week after President Donald Trump met with Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and announced he would be lifting sanctions on Syria in a major reversal of US policy. He said it was the US assessment that Syria’s transitional authority “given the challenges they're facing, are maybe weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse, and a full scale civil war of epic proportions … basically the country splitting up.” Syria's nearly 14-year-long civil war killed more than 500,000 people and displaced more than half of Syria’s population, with millions of refugees scattered throughout neighboring countries and Europe. Rubio cited two main challenges confronting Syria’s new leadership: the reemergence of the Islamic State and Iran’s attempts to “stir up trouble” within the country. To prevent further instability in Syria, Rubio argued for engaging with the new Syrian government and Sharaa — a former insurgent who five months ago led a coalition of rebel groups to topple Syria’s longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The Trump administration had previously avoided official engagement with Sharaa, whose militant group — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — remains a US-designated terrorist organization due to its past association with al-Qaeda. "The bad news is that [Syria's] transitional authority figures, they didn't pass their background check," Rubio said. If the United States had not engaged with Syria, “it was guaranteed to not work out.” The White House has tasked the interagency with proposing options for easing certain sanctions via waivers or suspensions, according to US officials. There are various sanctions and export controls Trump can rescind via executive order, though the Caesar Act and Syria’s 1979 designation as a state sponsor of terror require congressional action. Rubio said on Tuesday that sanctions waivers alone won’t be sufficient to attract foreign investment, telling lawmakers that additional measures are necessary to “create an environment for private sector growth." Syria urgently needs investment to rebuild the country, the estimated cost of which ranges from $250 billion to $400 billion. The governor of Syria's central bank, Abdulkader Husrieh, told Al-Monitor last week that lifting sanctions would restore Syria’s access to the international financial system, including by allowing it to unblock frozen assets and interact with global banking institutions. On Tuesday, a delegation of Turkish officials led by Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz met in Washington with US officials to discuss unwinding sanctions on Syria. Ankara had heavily lobbied Trump to normalize relations with Damascus. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan virtually joined the meeting in Riyadh between Trump, Sharaa and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
BabylonianWeeb@reddit
Thank you
AWildNome@reddit
https://archive.is/PLgPh
BabylonianWeeb@reddit
Thanks
BabylonianWeeb@reddit
Rubio says Pentagon intelligence shows that Syria’s government could collapse in weeks, triggering ‘full-blown civil war’ | Warning comes a day after Damascus authorities issued a 10-day ultimatum to the Kurdish-led SDF
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Tuesday that without robust US engagement, Syria’s government may collapse within weeks, potentially triggering a civil war of “epic proportions." Rubio spoke a week after President Donald Trump met with Syrian Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and announced he would be lifting sanctions on Syria in a major reversal of US policy. He said it was the US assessment that Syria’s transitional authority “given the challenges they're facing, are maybe weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse, and a full scale civil war of epic proportions … basically the country splitting up.” Syria's nearly 14-year-long civil war killed more than 500,000 people and displaced more than half of Syria’s population, with millions of refugees scattered throughout neighboring countries and Europe. Rubio cited two main challenges confronting Syria’s new leadership: the reemergence of the Islamic State and Iran’s attempts to “stir up trouble” within the country. To prevent further instability in Syria, Rubio argued for engaging with the new Syrian government and Sharaa — a former insurgent who five months ago led a coalition of rebel groups to topple Syria’s longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The Trump administration had previously avoided official engagement with Sharaa, whose militant group — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — remains a US-designated terrorist organization due to its past association with al-Qaeda. "The bad news is that [Syria's] transitional authority figures, they didn't pass their background check," Rubio said. If the United States had not engaged with Syria, “it was guaranteed to not work out.” The White House has tasked the interagency with proposing options for easing certain sanctions via waivers or suspensions, according to US officials. There are various sanctions and export controls Trump can rescind via executive order, though the Caesar Act and Syria’s 1979 designation as a state sponsor of terror require congressional action. Rubio said on Tuesday that sanctions waivers alone won’t be sufficient to attract foreign investment, telling lawmakers that additional measures are necessary to “create an environment for private sector growth." Syria urgently needs investment to rebuild the country, the estimated cost of which ranges from $250 billion to $400 billion. The governor of Syria's central bank, Abdulkader Husrieh, told Al-Monitor last week that lifting sanctions would restore Syria’s access to the international financial system, including by allowing it to unblock frozen assets and interact with global banking institutions. On Tuesday, a delegation of Turkish officials led by Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz met in Washington with US officials to discuss unwinding sanctions on Syria. Ankara had heavily lobbied Trump to normalize relations with Damascus. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan virtually joined the meeting in Riyadh between Trump, Sharaa and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
ArmadilloReasonable9@reddit
Drought played a large part in stoking tensions before the civil war and from what ive seen the current drought is as bad if not worse. If a despot couldn’t keep things in check last time with the benefit of a powerful military and bureaucratic control, my hopes aren’t high for a fledgling government that’s reliant on a shaky alliance of militias.