The Realities of Nuclear War

Posted by snuffy_bodacious@reddit | preppers | View on Reddit | 403 comments

The blast of a nuclear bomb probably isn't as bad as most people imagine it is in reality.

Thanks to Hollywood and a series of other influencers, when we think of nuclear war, we think of a bomb going off, killing millions of people in a wall of fire for dozens of miles. We think of large swaths of the planet being rendered uninhabitable for hundreds of years.

I mean, Russia once detonated the Tsar Bomba, a 50,000 kt bomb that was the largest in human history. The destructive capacity of the bomb was immense.

The reality is, this bomb is far too big to be delivered via missile. The entire program was far more of a propaganda piece than a practical weapon for war. Most nuclear warheads owned by America, China and Russia range between 100-500 kt, and even then, most of those are closer to 100 kt than 500 kt. Larger bombs do exist, but it is practical to only deliver them by bomber.

The effective "kill" radius of a 150 kt bomb that is delivered by missile and detonated at the ideal altitude of about 1 mile above ground level will have enough energy to destroy homes up to 2.25 miles away. The thermal blast will be much larger, but this won't harm people who are inside or behind an object that blocks infrared light.

While this is a huge area, it is probably nowhere near as big as most people imagine. If you live in the suburb of a major metro where, say, 5 warheads delivered by missile suddenly go off, your chances of not dying in a wall of fire are actually pretty good.

But what about fallout? Fallout becomes a much bigger problem for ground detonations where the bomb is capable of kicking up a lot of dirt. The problem with this situation is that a ground detonation greatly mitigates the effects of the blast. This type of situation would be more common from a terrorist attack as opposed to an all-out nuclear war.

Fallout is bad, but somewhat easy to deal with if you know what to do. If we are in a nuclear war, and if you are downwind of a fallout cloud, your best bet is to simply stay inside your home for 2-3 weeks. The structure of your home will protect you from most of the ionizing radiation emanating from the contamination, which itself will decay very rapidly in a short period of time.

Finally, it's worth noting that America's enemies probably don't have very many active missiles that can deliver a payload. On paper, Russia has \~5,600 warheads, but only very small fraction of those are viable. Maintaining missiles is shockingly expensive. In 2022, America spent $50 billion to maintain its smaller fleet of \~5,000 warheads. That same year, Russia spent $60 billion on their entire military, including their missiles. Meanwhile, as the Ukraine war has demonstrated, it is clear that large portions of the money allocated for the military was squandered in corruption. It genuinely wouldn't surprise me if Russia doesn't have more than a few dozen viable warheads. Likewise, China has recently been caught with their own scandal where military personnel were caught straight up stealing important components for the missile to work properly.

With all that in mind, does the threat of nuclear bother me? Absolutely. But even as someone who lives in a major American metro, am I worried about dying in a wall of fire? Not really.

I will say, however, that disruptions to supply chains pose a far greater threat to your well-being than anything else. The easiest thing you can do to prepare for this is pretty boring: purchase a camping-rated water filter and a 90-day food supply (\~100 lbs of dry food storage) for everyone living in your home.