Grocery Prices and other Commodities over time
Posted by PrepperBoi@reddit | preppers | View on Reddit | 22 comments
One of the side projects I have been working on is taking data from the USDA website on things like beef/chicken/pork, and figuring out what costs have increased/decreased over long periods of time. Then ingesting that into a self hosted/offline models.
This is factual data from the USDA and other .GOV websites I sourced myself, not guesses or extrapolated information from some AI.
The reports I ran took 3 years of pricing data from over 100 cuts of meat and told me the best protein per $1 of spending: https://imgur.com/a/MueGwh9
I did the same for Beans: https://imgur.com/a/Q6vDKiQ
Took 20 years of pricing data for gasoline and found the cheapest months on average to stock up: https://imgur.com/a/4Gm1GmM
DaveyAllenCountry@reddit
These numbers are averages but worth using for this. Yes, you can get certain meat way cheaper certain times of the year, but obviously that isn't fully applicable to the rest of the year.
SufficientMilk7609@reddit
I also created a pantry that helped me not have to go outside during the pandemic, that's why I started investing in things for a longer confinement, such as hydroponic crops, fish tanks, birds, small rodents, such as rabbits, and of course pollinators and small insects and mollusks to have a closed circuit of food. You can find everything in the guide on how to build a bunker in a flat or apartment, also create an underground one, with an Urban survival manual.
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
Do you have an English translation of the book yet?
SufficientMilk7609@reddit
I still didn't believe that Kindle translated the book but I see that it doesn't, so tell me what country you are from and as soon as I have it I'll let you know.
CapGirl80@reddit
I would like to be updated as well, please! I am in the US
SufficientMilk7609@reddit
Thank you for your interest, you can find it here, I hope you like it.
https://a.co/d/dvQ61T9
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
US. Thanks!
SufficientMilk7609@reddit
I already have it translated and online for the US here, if there is any problem I hope you let me know.
https://a.co/d/c60lH42
ResponsibleBank1387@reddit
Pound for pound in real life===sales-specials
Chicken, Ham, turkey, all go under a $1 a pound. whole frozen turkeys, 20 pounders have been 99 cents for couple months, ham come down to 1 and chicken thighs bounce to 79 cents at times.
silasmoeckel@reddit
Where are you shopping? I know USDA data is an aggregate but those are whole paycheck prices around me not aldi.
Timing is critical turkey breast is 99c or under fill up the freezer around holidays. Who would every pay 4 IDK.
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
This is wholesale data averages, not sales/promo pricing.
The only time I've seen turkey that cheap in my area is holidays. Thats whole turkey price here bones incl. Breasts alone no bone are like $3.50/lb
silasmoeckel@reddit
HCOL state and yea 99c on a holiday sale for frozen turkey breast.
A quick meta search via instacart and a bit over 4 a lbs is a small butterball. Still can get 2 at a wegmans for something 2x the size. All including instacart markup. I wouldn't buy it right now in any event.
You are in a prepper forum where we have deep freezers, want turkey you buy it around a holiday when grocery stores get competitive not in May. Sales pricing is all that matters because that's when your buying it. 6 months or more in freezers means your never buying because you have to. It's also how you make your preps save you money today.
Deep pantry, deep freeze, and solar are three big preps that save you money to help afford the others.
Ryan_e3p@reddit
Interesting!
For me, I've found pound-for-pound, depending on the time of year or the sale going on, either chicken or turkey has been the best option.
A store near me often runs bone-in chicken thighs for $0.99/lb. As for turkey, I grab about a dozen of them during the Thanksgiving specials where price drops down to $0.60-75/lb. Even considering that about half the weight of the turkey is bone, that still makes turkey meat an easy $1.50/lb. I grind it up by the pound, and chuck in the chest freezer. With the carcass, I make stock with veggie scraps, reduce that until it becomes thick (like, thick clam chowder thick), then ladle it onto parchment paper for my food dehydrator. Dehydrate until it becomes thin and brittle, chuck in spice grinder, and there is powdered turkey bullion! Great for seasoning with, or adding to boiled water to make it stock again. The bones can be further boiled and ground to add to the compost for its nutrients as well.
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
I just don't have the time or space to store/cook 12 turkeys to strip them like that so save \~$2/lb. I just buy ground in bulk 20lbs cases for closer to $3.50/lb from Sams Club personally.
Ryan_e3p@reddit
It's the balance of time and money, that's for sure!
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
At least the rotisserie chickens you can buy cooked already. That saves you alot of the storage issues.
Ryan_e3p@reddit
Eh... Freezing cooked meat has a really weird texture to it when it thaws. That's why I grind it and thaw it raw, or just freeze it raw like I do the chicken thighs.
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
I find it really depends on how hard you freeze it (what temp you keep the freezer at), and how you thaw it (I thaw via fridge overnight or just microwave it).
I keep my raw meat in my chest freezer much colder than the freezer attached to my refrigerator. If you keep ready to eat food too frozen, I find theres the texture issue.
dittybopper_05H@reddit
That doesn't necessarily mean it's 100% correct.
According to the USDA Food Access Research Atlas, I live right around the corner from an official USDA "food desert". In this case, "Low Income and Low Access at 1/2 and 10 miles".
Difficulty: There is a nice, clean, reasonably priced supermarket inside that so-called "food desert", and the farthest part of this "food desert" is just about 3/4ths of a mile away, but that's actually mostly commercial property. All of the apartments and homes are mostly within that 1/2 mile distance.
Once I found that out, I did some checking, and found numerous other alleged areas of low access that had supermarkets in them. Actual, for real, tens of thousands of square feet supermarkets, not small bodegas, dollar stores, and convenience stores.
So yeah, I'd double check the numbers you from them got just to make sure they're correct.
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
The data I sourced seems pretty factual for wholesale prices for my region (southeast US).
dittybopper_05H@reddit
I'm just sayin', be skeptical.
PrepperBoi@reddit (OP)
Here is an example of the source data for Chicken:
National Retail Report LP